7:35 p.m. Well, it was a race with lots of accidents. Opening with Yuga falling off from Admire Terra, letting go of the reins to have the horse run the race with an empty saddle while Seiun Hades took the lead instead of Sunrise Earth nor Ho O Biscuits, Justin Palace who was said to have improved his start with the blinder on suddenly falling behind again. Even after the race, Masquerade Ball bolts off and runs into Danon Decile, throwing both horses' jockies off to the turf, Danon Decile's rider Keita Tozaki hitting his leg hard onto the fence pole in the aftermath, carried off the turf on a stretcher.

I take my hat off to Calandagan and the crew. Their performance was fabulous, breaking Almond Eye's race record after seven years. Praise and respect also goes to Masquerade Ball, since it was a photo finish, which means he performed as well as Calandagan while breaking the record as well.

A slight disappointment against Croix du Nord permiating because he was able to get a good position. It could have been his condition as whispered before the race. Additionally, if the rumor that Croix du Nord was forced to run Japan Cup instead of Arima Kinen to give Regaleira the chance to win Arima Kinen is true, I'd be hugely disappointed. Such selfish, inhuman deeds shall not be allowed.

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Caterpillar

8:08 p.m. This week it's Champion's Cup, a dirt G1.

As you might already guess, Narukami is likely to be the most favored. The question is whether he'd be able to win or not.

As a 3-year-old, Narukami should have the advantage of freshness. The results of the past 10 years show that 3-year-olds perform relatively well, as long as they go up front. The only 3-year-old which finished above third place without taking a higher position up front was Nonkono Yume.

Well, I'll have to scrutinize the horse especially when he's a runaway that won Japan Dirt Classics in his previous race. But then, the two-kilograms lighter weight he carries is definitely is appealing.

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Caterpillar

8:31 p.m. Let me leave Narukami aside for a moment to think about trailers starting from outer posts.

As you might already know, Chukyo dirt 1800m where Champions' Cup is held is friendly to inner post starters. You can almost say that one only needs to buy horses starting from inner posts. But then, trailers that drew outer posts like Westerlund or Chuwa Wizzard have made me cry in the past so I want to make use of this opportunity to put an end to such tragedies.

I've reflected on the past results and came to recognize that basically, trailers starting from outer posts don't need much attention except for some rare cases. What Westerlund and Chuwa Wizzard shared was that they both had the fastest records of the last three furlongs in their career before Champions' Cup. They also performed well on wet dirt track condition, which is essential for performing highly in a JRA dirt G1, while both horses performed better starting from outer posts.

I shall keep this in mind this year.

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Caterpillar

9:00 p.m. The barriers for Champions' Cup have been drawn and announced, so let's take a look.

Luxor Cafe drawing the outmost post will be disadvantaged considering the course features. Narukami, the center of attraction has drawn an outer post while several front runners including Wiiliam Barrows who also wants to run away have drawn inner posts. Narukami probably would get on top as he's done regardless of the posts. W Heart Bond might want to stick along the rail somewhere around the second or third row from the top.

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8:37 p.m. Narukami's win odds is showing 1.8 at the moment.

Well, perhaps that can't be helped since there doesn't seem to be a horse to beat. I was thinking that horses drawing inner posts would be good candidates. Unfortunately, though the inner post drawers are mostly either too old or unreliable. Narukami is probably just pushed out onto the top of the win odds list.

Personally, I didn' tthink Narukami was rock solid considering that he's a runaway, so I wanted to find a different horse to key from inner post drawers. Well, I might have to think that over.

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Caterpillar

8:33 p.m. Something came up and I have to hurry. It's good I've already arrowed down the candidates for Champions' Cup to six horses, though I haven't decided which horse to key yet.

The horses remaining on my list are Meisho Hario (I can't just quit now since it's his last run and I also bought him last year), Ramjet, Wilson Tesoro, Sixpence, Narukami. Oops, there was one more left, Luxor Cafe, sorry. Luxor Cafe doesn't strike me as the type to do well in Champions' Cup especially after winning Musashino Stakes. He seems more like February Stakes, but well.

As mentioned, haven't decided which horse to key, perhaps Narukami or Wilson Tesoro? Naturally, it should be Wison considering his performance in this race for the past couple of years. I wonder how many combinations there'd be for a trifecta box of five?

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Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. At the last minute, I decided Sixpence nor Luxor Cafe won't make it starting from outer posts and cut them out from my wheel, including W Heart Bond and Hagino Alegrias instead. But I somehow keyed Narukami.

Unbelievable! I've been saying all along that Wilson Tesoro is the safer option. so why did I sudddenly change my mind? Why? Why? WHY! Such nonsense! I can't blame myself enough.

As I desperately searched for a reason to convince myself, I came across a book titled "How to Fix the Habit of Always Going in the Wrong Direction". So it's something mental. Great. Let me take a look at the summary.

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Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. Having thoroughly reviewed the process how I called recent races, I came to realize that I've been too influenced by others. Differnt perspectives can sometimes be helpful to open up your eyes to things that otherwise you might have let pass. But I got swung around by other people's opinions, most of which were not based on facts.

That's putting the cart before the horse since I started calilng races based on facts I could pick up from racing forms. I will get back to the start and stick to my original rule of building up my call from the facts. Come to think of it, indeed I was spending so much time on trying to assume what might or might not happen.

Okay. Let's start from checkig out the step races of Hanshin Juvenile Fillies.

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Caterpillar

9:17 p.m. Just starting to check the step races for this year's Hanshin Juvenile Fillies as I had work until an hour ago. Don't have much time left so just a quick report.

Atemis Stakes, one of the most well-known as well as high-performing step race of Hanshin JF, seems to have been run in a level not all that bad considering the good to firm track condition. It's a pity Firostefani couldn't make it. As Hanshin JF is a mile race just like Artemis, it's not good to lose big in this race since it will be harder to make a comeback in a similar situation in the same distance.

Three horses running in Artemis Stakes are entered at the moment, though none of them have sunk low in the race so there might be chances for all of them. Among them however, Taisei Vogue looks better to my eyes, given that she draws an inner post.

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Caterpillar

8:55 p.m. Digging further with the step race research.

Perhaps because the outer turf course of Hanshin 1600m where Hanshin JF is annually run slopes downward from the last corner until the heartbreaking hill before the finish line, the race tends to require a fast record for the last three furlongs. Most of the horses finishing above third place in the past 10 years had finished recording either the fastest, second fastest or the third fastest furlong time for te last three furlongs in their previous races.

There were a few exceptions of course, but these were front runners or runaways and the too, had finished with fast furlong records, although they couldn't make it to the top three. In rare cases where the high performers of Hanshin JF didn't finish with fast furlong records in their previous races, they actually had in their former race just before the step race.

What I want to say is that fast records for the last threee furlongs are fairly important in Hanshin JF.

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Caterpillar

9:14 p.m. Another thing you should be careful about step races is that horses finishing below fifth place in the previous races before Hanshin JF do not perform well.

In the past 10 years, the only two horses that had lost below fifth place in their step races were Uberleben and Win Fabulous. There were four things these two horses had in common. First, their most recent two races bfore Hanshin JF were both grade races. Second, they'd lost in the step races but either won or finished second in the race before. Third, they were both trailers and four, they'd both recorded fast time for the last three furlongs either in their step race or in the race before.

After all, it's a mile race. It's not easy to make a come back from a big loss unless there's a good reason for that loss.

Oh, the entry has been closed. The rest is up to the barrier draw and the track condition.

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Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. The barriers have been drawn for this year's Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and it looks like Alankar, the most favored has drawn an inner post.

As Alankar has won on a good to firm track, she might be the type that wants to avoid push and shove so the inner post can be an incident when the pace drops on firm track. Margot Love Me also might want to race smoothly, but she can take the lead if she wants to so the inner post she drew might become an advantage to her.

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Caterpillar

9:21 p.m. To be honest, I've lost confidence keying Croix du Nord last week. And I haven't recovered it yet, even at this moment.

Hansin Juvenile Fillies is a race limited to young female horses which is almost impossible to predict what will happen, as you all might know. So I decided to turn to a defiant attitude and rhythmically crossed out the horses from the entry list to come down to four horses. OMG, four? Isn't that too precarious? Oh well, so these are the four names. Garavogue, Arbanne, Margot Love Me, and His Masterpiece.

Since there are only four left, that shall make it easier for me to buy box tickets this week.

Okay, let's start the pondering now. It just doesn't feel right. I mean, how could this race finish with horses only from post numbers 5 to 8?

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Caterpillar

8:57 p.m. See? If I just buy box tickets, I can win. Then why didn't I buy them earlier?

The race was run mostly as I assumed. I said mostly, because Margot Love Me didn't take the lead. But I thought the pace could get tight with several front runners split in inner and outer posts. Alankar wouldn't stand a chance in a tough lap, so I crossed her off my list from the beginning.

His Masterpiece has lost weight, which was definitely not good so I replaced her with Star Anise, the only horse that might perform well in a tight-lapped race apart from Garavogue, added Taisei Vogue since she might make it to third place despite the outer post, then bought trio box tickets.

It didn't make much difference in the end as I was going to key Garavogue if I'd bought trio wheels, though the important thing was to win and regain my confidence. It's a win in a while. Will have a dumpling party tonight!

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Caterpillar

8:28 p.m. Let's keep up the good work to win another mile race at Hanshin, Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes. I might have said before that Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes are two completely different races, but I've forgotten the details so I need to dig up that note first of all. Depending on how these two races are different, I might have to change my perspective on Asahi-hai.

First impression of the entry form says maybe I could simply trust Realize Sirius. There aren't many runaways as there were in Hanshin JF last week, so the pace is unlikely to ge as tight either. If so, horses that could get a good position up front while being able to wrap up the last three furlongs in a fast record would be the most promising.

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Caterpillar

9:38 p.m. I can't recommend Realize Sirius wholeheartedly, though. I have two reasons for that.

First, the horse hasn't experienced a clockwise course. This might suggest that the crew have been intentionally choosing counter clockwise courses for some reason, such as the horses physical balance.

Secondly, Realize Sirius hasn't experienced a big-field race either. The horse could be intimidated when surrounde by other horses, depending on the barrier he draws as well as the pace.

Oh, there was one more. It's been four months since his last run so his condition will also need some consideration.

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Caterpillar

9:02 p.m. Admire Quads has jumped up to the top favored on expected win odds chart. I'm not surprised as he's won the Daily-hai 2-sai Stakes, one of the most promising step races for Asahi-hai. In fact, seven horses from Daily-hai (either winner or runner-up) have finished above third place in the past 10 years of Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes, while they all had covered the last three furlongs of Daily-hai with either the fastest or second fastest records. Looks like that's an important point.

Admire Quads seem to have cleared that point too. The horse seems to prefer smooth races assuming from his sireline, but if it rains in Hanshin as the forecasts say to maks the track sondition soft, he wouldn't have to wory about getting trapped.

Must also check out Ecoro Alba, previously running in Saudi Arabia Royal Cup another major step race for Asahi-hai, though I started to sway due to lack of sleep so I guess I'll call it a day.

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Caterpillar

8:37 p.m. Oh? The entry for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes has been closed and somehow the number of horses running decreased to 14. If my memory is correct, there were 18 entered on Monday. Sweet Happiness I guessed, would scratch off as she's already run in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, but where have all the others gone? According to the forecast, it doesn't seem like the rain would be heavy, so the weather (or track condition) can't be the reason?

Well, it's a pity it won't be a full-field race like Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. And if there are only 14 horses running, the chance of Asahi-hai run in a tight pace would narrow. Though it also depends largely on the barrier draw. We'll have to wait and see until tomorrow, but basically, Hanshin mile is more friendly to inner post drawers especially when the pace lags.

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Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. The barriers for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes is released so let's take a look. It still makes me sad to see only 14 horses running, though.

The favored horses Admire Quads and Realize Sirius have both drawn outer posts. Cavallerizzo and Ecoro Alba are pushed up as a result. I did mention yesterday that Hanshin mile is more friendly to inner posts. Even so, Admire Quads as well as Realize Sirius are starting from post numbers 12 and 13, which are not exactly the same as starting from the outmost post number 18 in a full-field race, you know?

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Caterpillar

9:08 p.m. The track condition is the only factor left.

Forecasts have finally announced that rain will be expected in Hyogo where Hanshin Race Course is located, but the predictions about precipitation are divided between forecasting companies. Some say it would be a full-fledged rain around noon to early afternoon, while others say it would just be a drizzle.

The track condition of Hanshin turf early today when it had been checked was closed to that of a good to firm condition, although JRA's annnouncement said it was firm. Fast finishing time has been recorded, which seem to show that the ground is firm. Rain or no rain, I assume we'll have another fast finish of say, 1 min. 32 seconds range. Horses taking their positions way behind will have a hard time to catch the front runners.

The six horses currently remaining on my list are Ecoro Alba, Corteo Soleil, Cavallerizzo, Diamond Knot, Admire Quads, and Realize Sirius. From these six, one will have to go depending on tomorrows track condition. Who would that be, I wonder?

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Caterpillar

9:04 p.m. The track condition was soft, which wasn't expected. I thought it could be good to firm, but not soft. It must have rained pretty much in Hanshin. What was the name of the weather forecast company that said it would only be a drizzle?

I decided to delete Ecoro Alba from fear he might not be able to keep up with the speed. On a soft, time-consuming track, lagging behind can bring critical damage to the results as it would be harder for the horses in the back to catch the front runners.

Anyway, I won two races in a row, which as you know is rare, very rare for me. Did I eat something odd? Not that I can recall. Well, the payout wasn't enough since I bought trios and got me into the red, though. Should have bought exactas but then, a win is a win. It's much better than losing.

Let's aim for three wins in a row with Arima Kinen. Oops, there was Hopeful Stakes before that. Never mind. Let me celebrate my rare win with curry and rice tonight.

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. Okay. So let me start from checking out Hopeful Stakes on the premise that I can make time to buy betting tickets and watch the race on Saturday.

Basically, inner post drawers as well as front runners are advantaged, since it's a 2000m race at Nakayama, the same as Satsuki-sho. Recently, it feels like more and more 2-year-olds are entering Hopeful Stakes rather than Asahi-hai because of its setting. I don't mind as long as it's going to be a big-field race.

The pace rarely seems to get fast. Almost all the horses which finished above third place in the past 10 years had finished in the top three of the fastest last three furlongs in their previous races. The only two horses that fell out of this condition were Sunrise Zipang running previously in a dirt race, and Dure Erede who couldn't run smoothly to take the lead in his previous race, which was after his first dirt race.

Hopefully, more info to follow tomorrow. That is, if I'm not dead after work.

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Caterpillar