6:54 p.m. Happy new year, everyone! It doesn't feel very special to me, though. I've been experiencing the beginning of each year for quite a while now and I was wondering how many more times I will in my time.

Now that 2025 has started, I ought to download this year's racing calendar to link it to my Google calendar. But before that, there are some changes I need to keep in mind.

Perhaps you might already know that Arima Kinen this year will be held on December 28th while Hopeful Stakes will be run on the day before, December 27th on the same day as Nakayama Dai-shougai (BTW, did you know that Nishino Daisy has won Nakayama Dai-shougai 2024?). The other grand prix race Takaraduka Kinen will be moved up two weeks to be held on the week after Yasuda Kinen (darn! I'll have to give up betting on horses using Yasuda Kinen as a step!).

Also, the following grade races will change their names:

• Arlington Cup�¨Churchill Downs Cup
• Fuchu Hinba Stakes�¨Ireland Trophy
• Kokura Summer Jump�¨Kokura Jump Stakes
• Aichi-hai�¨Kokura Hinba Stakes
• Kyoto Hinba Stakes�¨Aichi-hai
• Mermaid Stakes�¨Fuchu Hinba Stakes
• Tokai Stakes�¨Procyon Stakes
• Procyon Stakes�¨Tokai Stakes
• Kokura 2sai Stakes�¨Chukyo 2sai Stakes

As usual, it's extremely confusing. I wish they'd stop doing that.

The End

Caterpillar

9:43 p.m. Just as the new year started, I've done my first blunder of forgetting to send data for uploads. On the very first day of the year. How could I have done that? Aren't I sllacking off? Really, I'm appalled.

I was going to start early and finish early today to make some time for reading. I've signed out some books at the local library and have been counting fingers to read them. But then, the New Year greating cards were delivered yesterday to remind me that I hadn't designed mine yet while the year has already changed. Thus I had to spend the evening fussing with my drawing software. It's surprising how you don't remember any of the procedures after twelve months.

I know this won't help much though it's better than no information, I reckon. Regarding Nakayama Kinpai, inner post drawers usually have the advantage, as well as powerful front runners, weighing at least 480kg. Horses lighter (or smaller) than that are mostly lookers that finish second or third, unable to reach to the top. Just a tip, for your information.

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Caterpillar

8:53 p.m. The entry for both Kinpais have been closed as it was Friday today, and I've finally got around to entering most of the data I need. It's always been like this as long as I can remember, though I always get anxious waiting for the entry to be closed as well as for the result of the barrier draw to be announced. As mentiond earlier, having only a day after the bariier draw was not eough for me to reach conclusion.

However, let me tell you that I'm different this year (just remembered I said the same thing a couple of times before). A slightly better-than-last-year me is highly likely to reach conclusion tomorrow when the bariiers are announced hopefully, without (so) much difficulty.

A new year has begun, I've had my annual Tendon. All in good mood, am running through a couple of things I realized about Kyoto Kinpai.

Kyoto Kinpai has usually been pretty friendly to the odds-on favorite, but things seem to be different when it's run at Chukyo. As a matter of fact, it's been run at Chukyo while Kyoto Racing Course was under renewal from 2021 to 2023. What's characteristic about these three years is that unlike short-distance grade races, horses that have lost big in their previous races are doing quite well. I'm guessing it would be better to target horses that have lost below 4th place in a higher level race like G1s or G2s if there are any.

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Caterpillar

9:03 p.m. Sorry to keep you waiting, guys. I had to write replies to the greeting cards and do my daily work outs before starting to call Kinpai. I think I've done things more smoothly than usual, though. Otherwise, I won't be writing my calls here about this time when I had to call two races.

Let's get to the point. For Nakayama Kinpai, I'm going to key Christmas Parade on a wheel of Al Naseem, Meiner Mond, Licancabur, Shinryokuka, and Ho O Biscuits. I wish Shinryokuka had drawn a slightly inner barrier, but that's wishful thinking.

As for Kyoto Kinpai, I'm keying Doe Eyes on a wheel of Theo, Askkonnamonda, Shadow Fury, Selberg, and Feel Sympathy. Again, I feel it a pity that Doe Eyes had to draw such an outward post however, regarding the current Chukyo turf condition which can almost be interpreted as soft track, I thought Doe Eyes's power will fit the power-consuming track. There's a risk she might have to suffer some distance loss, where Yutaka could hopefully help keep it as small as possible.

Win or lose, let's see what my fortunes for this year is like.

The End

Caterpillar

7:43 p.m. Kyoto Kinpai has been a complete failure. I misread both the track condition and the pace. The turf which seemed to contain a lot of water yesterday seemed to have dried considerably (as though someone used a hairdryer), so the power-type front runners mostly sank except for Logi Leon and Theo. My Doe Eyes looked like she wasn't being urged on the homestretch. There must have been some problem.

As for Nakayama Kinpai, I bought a quinella of Al Naseem and Meiner Mond since I've been piling up losses because the horses on my wheel dominated the top three while my key horse finished behind them. I do learn from mistakes, you know, although not much.

If Christmas Parade could have hung on by half a length, I'd also have won a trio, which might have payed out 81.0 times my bet, but I'm grateful that I've won the first grade race this year.

The End

Caterpillar

9:06 p.m. Phew. Have finally finished reviewing all the races since Hopeful Stakes. Because there weren't much interval between the last three races, Arima Kinen, Hopeful Stakes and Tokyo Dai-shoten, I couldn't spare time to review them thoroughly. Now that I have, I know why I couldn't win Kyoto Kinpai.

Personally, I think it's fairly important to reflect on the past and learn from your own mistakes. How else would you be able to improve you skills? Dutifully going through where I went wrong, what I did wrong, sometimes I come across unexpected discoveries that givs me clues to tackle the next race. Kyoto Kinpai this year has been a good example in that sense. It tells me that the Chukyo course is pretty damaged that only the horses with enough speed and power to win dirt races are able to perform well.

With that in mind, I ought to choose from Yodo Tankyori Stakes and Shinzan Kinen this week.

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. The reason I'm thinking of calling either Yodo Tankyori Stakes or Shinzan Kinen is because they're both run at Chukyo. I know what the Chukyo turf might be like now. Having one factor certain in this game of calling races that consists of so many uncertainties I think, makes a big difference in the results.

Some rainfall is predicted around Chukyo on Sunday, so the situation might change a little but I could still build up my assumptions based on the facts I already know. Isn't that much better than fighting blindly?

Also, I just noticed that I've won two races in a row since Tokyo Dai-shoten (although Tokyo Dai-shoten had been in the red). That's something rare. As you know, I've piled up loss after loss for how many races I don't even remember, but there hasn't been a time I won races consecutively as far as I can remember.

I hope nothing bad happens. I've already had my share of it last year.

The End

Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. As mentioned earlier, I've been torn between Yodo Tankyori Stakes and Shinzan Kinen mainly, because I thought it would be harder to win 3-year-old race while Yodo Takyori Stakes was not even a grade race, which would make it harder for me to win although it was a race for older horeses.

It took me some time but I made up my mind to call Shinzan Kinen this week. A 3-year-olds' race is hard to win because the competitors only have very short careers in horse race and it results in a shortage of judgment material. This time, though I pretty much grasped the track condition of Chukyo mile already. Come to think of it, we've just had Kyoto Kinpai on the samae course and distance (although I didn't win) that can give me a bit more clues. Moreover, there's a turf mile reference race Shinshun Stakes on Sunday, the day before Shinzan Kinen will be run. It shall help me in case the turf condition changes depending on the rainfall (or snowfall).

Additionally, there are actually three years of results when Shinzan Kinen was run at Chukyo, unlike the usual Kyoto mile, which was from 2021 to 2023. Horses that finished above third place during these three years were mostly powerful types weighing more than 480kg except for Light Quantum and Bathrat Leon.

Perhaps Light Quantum could be considered as an exception, since the race was run in a smakk field of merely seven horses in 2023.

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Caterpillar

7:15 p.m. The entry for Shinzan Kinen has been closed today and there will be 16 horses running this year. Great! It's always good to have a full-field running when seen from the better's side.

One of my clients has blew me off so why not make use of this block of time to prepare for Shinzan Kinen?

Chukyo mile is considerably a tough course. The pace usually settles in the back stretch where the horses climb a gentle slope, shifting up between the third and last corner where the slope turns downward. What's characteristic about this course is that there's a small hill on the homestretch which lasts for more than 400 meters climbing up 2 meters, followed by a gentle 200-meter uphill from the top of the hill. It's easy to imagine Shinzan Kinen is going to be quite a tough race especially for 3-year-olds.

Owing to the course features, horses starting from inner posts and front runners are performing well in the three years Shinzan Kinen was run at Chukyo. Outer post drawers don't have to be considered importantly if they can't go up front. Of the nine horses that finished above third place from 2021 to 2023, 6 of them actually turned the last corner within fifth from the leading horse. Position is crucial. Even more so when the turf is soft.

The End

Caterpillar

7:30 p.m. Let me turn my eyes to step races, now. It's a pity there are only three years worth of results to assume from but well, let's give it a try. After all, little data can be better than no data at all in many cases.

When Shinzan Kinen was run at Kyoto, may horses have lost below fifth place in their step races to raise their performances in Shinzan Kien. On the contrary, in the three years Shinzan Kinen was run at Chukyo, the only horse that lost below fifith place in its previous race was Red Belle Ame, finishing third in 2022. Seven horses that finished above third place had also all finished above third place in their previous races, which were either maiden races or one win class races. The remaining one horse that performed well was Bathrat Leon finishing third in 2021, who'd lost in a lukewarm 4th place in his previous race, Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes.

If choosing a horse that have lost below 4th place in its previous race, it seems better to choose one losing in a grade race rather than maiden race or one win class.

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Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. Just checking out the barriers for Shinzan Kinen to realize there are only 15 horses. Someone must have scratched off. Ah, Pod Donner, it was you, pity.

The pace won't be slow I assume, as this course won't allow the horses to drop their speed in the middle of the race. The track condition is dry but tough as expected. The remaining question is whether it will snow to pile up on Monday.

Current forecast says it will mostly be cloudy during Sunday, though the sky is expected to be clear from Sunday evening throughout Monday. On the premise that the forecast comes true, I guess things won't change so drastically from today. Still, I will check out Shinshun Stakes tomorrow.

Things went well and I've been able to narrow down the candidates to about half. Will carve them down tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. Have dutifully done my preparation for the race tomorrow, though I admit nodding off for a wee bit. I'm trying to change my lifestyle so I could get up earlier, at least in the morning. According to the MEQ�iMorningness-Eveningness Questionnaire), my chronotype is supposed to be a moderate evening person, so I want to get my life moving three hours earlier. No big deal, just a slight jet lag.

Getting back on track, my dutiful preparation has brought me to a conclusion for Shinzan Kinen. My, but it was hard! I mean, these horses are 3-year-olds and it's still difficult for me to figure out which horse wins first, second, third with such little information.

Am keying Taisei Current on trio. Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes definitely must be the top-level race for 2-year-olds. I thought it was better not to perform too well in such a high-level race considering the damage. Also, drawing the inner post would be an advantage for Maurice descendants. On the wheel would be Acrux, Lila Emblem, Arte Veloce, Licantropo, and Arlington Row.

I'm not so sure about the horses on the wheel. Think I'll buy some quinellas again, say, from Arte Veloce. Hope my hard work pays off.

The End

Caterpillar

7:39 p.m. I've done it again! As I've said yesterday, I was going to buy the quinellas of Lila Emblem and Licantropo keying Arte Veloce but have changed the ley to Taisei Current at the last minute... and my three-wins-in-a-row for the first time in my life went down the sewer.

It's apalling how I always change the key at the last minute just to lose a race. I think there may be a name for it in the field of psychology. Normalcy bias?

No, it's not that. My action of changing decision I guess, is related to fear, anxiety, and the desire for reward. I wonder if there's a name for this, like when you suddenly change your mind when something such as an event is actually about to happen? If there's a name for it, I have a hunch I could tackle it to overcome it.

Perhaps I should read Alfred Adler?

Yutaka did a sloppy job with Tsaisei Current, by the way. It's something rare for such a skilled, super jockey like him, but he should have took the lead himself in this case as Maurice descendants tend to be too clumsy to shift the speed up and down. It's a pity.

The End

Caterpillar

7:47 p.m. There was a name for my mental state to act impulsively right before the race. I figured it as the so-called "fight or flight response".

The cause of my fear and anxiety is the time of the race that, the barriers would open and the horses would jump out from them to start the race in less than 10 minutes got me anxious and scared. The key for my quinellas are a bit shaky, but I don't have enough time to reconsider it. What if I couldn't make it before the closing bet?

It sounds ridiculous when I'm calm, really. There's no need to feel anxious as if the bets were closed already, I would save my betting money. I'm also wasting my own time and effort with my behavior by changing what I'd thought out over a course of days. How disappointing!

Well, now that I know what was going on with myself, I think I could do something with it.

The End

Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. Pullig myself together, let me focus on ... not the Keisei-hai, the trial race for 3-year-olds at Nakayama, Nikkei Shinshun-hai at Chukyo.

I'm not really sure about the features of Chukyo 2200m, though I have a hunch it would be better to stick with Chukyo rather than diving into another three-year-old race. I'm once bitten twice shy, you know. Well, I might change my mind depending on how my preparations turn out. If Nikkei Shinshu-hai's level seemed to be lower than I expected, then I might switch to Nakayama.

Luckily, Nikkei-Shinshun-hai also has three years of data when it was held at Chukyo, just like last week's Shinzan Kinen. Let's start digging from there.

The End

Caterpillar

7:27 p.m. There were a lot of thing to do today, including some shopping in the early afternoon. What kept me busy was that everything focused in the afternoon that I hadn't been able to do my preparation for the race. Computer trouble (not mine, my client's) has also popped up to top up my list of things to do, making me to compress the list.

Just took a quick glance at the past results of Nikkei Shinshu-hai, which brought me back the memory of Yoho Lake. I remember feeling that the race results were just as if the horses had run on Kyoto turf. The pace lagged and it became an instantaneous speed contest, though requiring long-lasting speed at the same time.

There seem to be a couple of horses that might want to take the lead this year including Meisho Tabaru, so I wonder what the pace might be like? Also, I need to check out the weather for Chukyo as it could become a power race depending on the weather and track condition.

Anyway, the entry has been closed and there will be 16 horses running this year, which is a good thing regarding the payout.

The End

Caterpillar