6:54 p.m. Happy new year, everyone! It doesn't feel very special to me, though. I've been experiencing the beginning of each year for quite a while now and I was wondering how many more times I will in my time.

Now that 2025 has started, I ought to download this year's racing calendar to link it to my Google calendar. But before that, there are some changes I need to keep in mind.

Perhaps you might already know that Arima Kinen this year will be held on December 28th while Hopeful Stakes will be run on the day before, December 27th on the same day as Nakayama Dai-shougai (BTW, did you know that Nishino Daisy has won Nakayama Dai-shougai 2024?). The other grand prix race Takaraduka Kinen will be moved up two weeks to be held on the week after Yasuda Kinen (darn! I'll have to give up betting on horses using Yasuda Kinen as a step!).

Also, the following grade races will change their names:

• Arlington Cup�¨Churchill Downs Cup
• Fuchu Hinba Stakes�¨Ireland Trophy
• Kokura Summer Jump�¨Kokura Jump Stakes
• Aichi-hai�¨Kokura Hinba Stakes
• Kyoto Hinba Stakes�¨Aichi-hai
• Mermaid Stakes�¨Fuchu Hinba Stakes
• Tokai Stakes�¨Procyon Stakes
• Procyon Stakes�¨Tokai Stakes
• Kokura 2sai Stakes�¨Chukyo 2sai Stakes

As usual, it's extremely confusing. I wish they'd stop doing that.

The End

Caterpillar

9:43 p.m. Just as the new year started, I've done my first blunder of forgetting to send data for uploads. On the very first day of the year. How could I have done that? Aren't I sllacking off? Really, I'm appalled.

I was going to start early and finish early today to make some time for reading. I've signed out some books at the local library and have been counting fingers to read them. But then, the New Year greating cards were delivered yesterday to remind me that I hadn't designed mine yet while the year has already changed. Thus I had to spend the evening fussing with my drawing software. It's surprising how you don't remember any of the procedures after twelve months.

I know this won't help much though it's better than no information, I reckon. Regarding Nakayama Kinpai, inner post drawers usually have the advantage, as well as powerful front runners, weighing at least 480kg. Horses lighter (or smaller) than that are mostly lookers that finish second or third, unable to reach to the top. Just a tip, for your information.

The End

Caterpillar

8:53 p.m. The entry for both Kinpais have been closed as it was Friday today, and I've finally got around to entering most of the data I need. It's always been like this as long as I can remember, though I always get anxious waiting for the entry to be closed as well as for the result of the barrier draw to be announced. As mentiond earlier, having only a day after the bariier draw was not eough for me to reach conclusion.

However, let me tell you that I'm different this year (just remembered I said the same thing a couple of times before). A slightly better-than-last-year me is highly likely to reach conclusion tomorrow when the bariiers are announced hopefully, without (so) much difficulty.

A new year has begun, I've had my annual Tendon. All in good mood, am running through a couple of things I realized about Kyoto Kinpai.

Kyoto Kinpai has usually been pretty friendly to the odds-on favorite, but things seem to be different when it's run at Chukyo. As a matter of fact, it's been run at Chukyo while Kyoto Racing Course was under renewal from 2021 to 2023. What's characteristic about these three years is that unlike short-distance grade races, horses that have lost big in their previous races are doing quite well. I'm guessing it would be better to target horses that have lost below 4th place in a higher level race like G1s or G2s if there are any.

The End

Caterpillar

9:03 p.m. Sorry to keep you waiting, guys. I had to write replies to the greeting cards and do my daily work outs before starting to call Kinpai. I think I've done things more smoothly than usual, though. Otherwise, I won't be writing my calls here about this time when I had to call two races.

Let's get to the point. For Nakayama Kinpai, I'm going to key Christmas Parade on a wheel of Al Naseem, Meiner Mond, Licancabur, Shinryokuka, and Ho O Biscuits. I wish Shinryokuka had drawn a slightly inner barrier, but that's wishful thinking.

As for Kyoto Kinpai, I'm keying Doe Eyes on a wheel of Theo, Askkonnamonda, Shadow Fury, Selberg, and Feel Sympathy. Again, I feel it a pity that Doe Eyes had to draw such an outward post however, regarding the current Chukyo turf condition which can almost be interpreted as soft track, I thought Doe Eyes's power will fit the power-consuming track. There's a risk she might have to suffer some distance loss, where Yutaka could hopefully help keep it as small as possible.

Win or lose, let's see what my fortunes for this year is like.

The End

Caterpillar

7:43 p.m. Kyoto Kinpai has been a complete failure. I misread both the track condition and the pace. The turf which seemed to contain a lot of water yesterday seemed to have dried considerably (as though someone used a hairdryer), so the power-type front runners mostly sank except for Logi Leon and Theo. My Doe Eyes looked like she wasn't being urged on the homestretch. There must have been some problem.

As for Nakayama Kinpai, I bought a quinella of Al Naseem and Meiner Mond since I've been piling up losses because the horses on my wheel dominated the top three while my key horse finished behind them. I do learn from mistakes, you know, although not much.

If Christmas Parade could have hung on by half a length, I'd also have won a trio, which might have payed out 81.0 times my bet, but I'm grateful that I've won the first grade race this year.

The End

Caterpillar

9:06 p.m. Phew. Have finally finished reviewing all the races since Hopeful Stakes. Because there weren't much interval between the last three races, Arima Kinen, Hopeful Stakes and Tokyo Dai-shoten, I couldn't spare time to review them thoroughly. Now that I have, I know why I couldn't win Kyoto Kinpai.

Personally, I think it's fairly important to reflect on the past and learn from your own mistakes. How else would you be able to improve you skills? Dutifully going through where I went wrong, what I did wrong, sometimes I come across unexpected discoveries that givs me clues to tackle the next race. Kyoto Kinpai this year has been a good example in that sense. It tells me that the Chukyo course is pretty damaged that only the horses with enough speed and power to win dirt races are able to perform well.

With that in mind, I ought to choose from Yodo Tankyori Stakes and Shinzan Kinen this week.

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. The reason I'm thinking of calling either Yodo Tankyori Stakes or Shinzan Kinen is because they're both run at Chukyo. I know what the Chukyo turf might be like now. Having one factor certain in this game of calling races that consists of so many uncertainties I think, makes a big difference in the results.

Some rainfall is predicted around Chukyo on Sunday, so the situation might change a little but I could still build up my assumptions based on the facts I already know. Isn't that much better than fighting blindly?

Also, I just noticed that I've won two races in a row since Tokyo Dai-shoten (although Tokyo Dai-shoten had been in the red). That's something rare. As you know, I've piled up loss after loss for how many races I don't even remember, but there hasn't been a time I won races consecutively as far as I can remember.

I hope nothing bad happens. I've already had my share of it last year.

The End

Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. As mentioned earlier, I've been torn between Yodo Tankyori Stakes and Shinzan Kinen mainly, because I thought it would be harder to win 3-year-old race while Yodo Takyori Stakes was not even a grade race, which would make it harder for me to win although it was a race for older horeses.

It took me some time but I made up my mind to call Shinzan Kinen this week. A 3-year-olds' race is hard to win because the competitors only have very short careers in horse race and it results in a shortage of judgment material. This time, though I pretty much grasped the track condition of Chukyo mile already. Come to think of it, we've just had Kyoto Kinpai on the samae course and distance (although I didn't win) that can give me a bit more clues. Moreover, there's a turf mile reference race Shinshun Stakes on Sunday, the day before Shinzan Kinen will be run. It shall help me in case the turf condition changes depending on the rainfall (or snowfall).

Additionally, there are actually three years of results when Shinzan Kinen was run at Chukyo, unlike the usual Kyoto mile, which was from 2021 to 2023. Horses that finished above third place during these three years were mostly powerful types weighing more than 480kg except for Light Quantum and Bathrat Leon.

Perhaps Light Quantum could be considered as an exception, since the race was run in a smakk field of merely seven horses in 2023.

The End

Caterpillar

7:15 p.m. The entry for Shinzan Kinen has been closed today and there will be 16 horses running this year. Great! It's always good to have a full-field running when seen from the better's side.

One of my clients has blew me off so why not make use of this block of time to prepare for Shinzan Kinen?

Chukyo mile is considerably a tough course. The pace usually settles in the back stretch where the horses climb a gentle slope, shifting up between the third and last corner where the slope turns downward. What's characteristic about this course is that there's a small hill on the homestretch which lasts for more than 400 meters climbing up 2 meters, followed by a gentle 200-meter uphill from the top of the hill. It's easy to imagine Shinzan Kinen is going to be quite a tough race especially for 3-year-olds.

Owing to the course features, horses starting from inner posts and front runners are performing well in the three years Shinzan Kinen was run at Chukyo. Outer post drawers don't have to be considered importantly if they can't go up front. Of the nine horses that finished above third place from 2021 to 2023, 6 of them actually turned the last corner within fifth from the leading horse. Position is crucial. Even more so when the turf is soft.

The End

Caterpillar

7:30 p.m. Let me turn my eyes to step races, now. It's a pity there are only three years worth of results to assume from but well, let's give it a try. After all, little data can be better than no data at all in many cases.

When Shinzan Kinen was run at Kyoto, may horses have lost below fifth place in their step races to raise their performances in Shinzan Kien. On the contrary, in the three years Shinzan Kinen was run at Chukyo, the only horse that lost below fifith place in its previous race was Red Belle Ame, finishing third in 2022. Seven horses that finished above third place had also all finished above third place in their previous races, which were either maiden races or one win class races. The remaining one horse that performed well was Bathrat Leon finishing third in 2021, who'd lost in a lukewarm 4th place in his previous race, Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes.

If choosing a horse that have lost below 4th place in its previous race, it seems better to choose one losing in a grade race rather than maiden race or one win class.

The End

Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. Just checking out the barriers for Shinzan Kinen to realize there are only 15 horses. Someone must have scratched off. Ah, Pod Donner, it was you, pity.

The pace won't be slow I assume, as this course won't allow the horses to drop their speed in the middle of the race. The track condition is dry but tough as expected. The remaining question is whether it will snow to pile up on Monday.

Current forecast says it will mostly be cloudy during Sunday, though the sky is expected to be clear from Sunday evening throughout Monday. On the premise that the forecast comes true, I guess things won't change so drastically from today. Still, I will check out Shinshun Stakes tomorrow.

Things went well and I've been able to narrow down the candidates to about half. Will carve them down tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. Have dutifully done my preparation for the race tomorrow, though I admit nodding off for a wee bit. I'm trying to change my lifestyle so I could get up earlier, at least in the morning. According to the MEQ�iMorningness-Eveningness Questionnaire), my chronotype is supposed to be a moderate evening person, so I want to get my life moving three hours earlier. No big deal, just a slight jet lag.

Getting back on track, my dutiful preparation has brought me to a conclusion for Shinzan Kinen. My, but it was hard! I mean, these horses are 3-year-olds and it's still difficult for me to figure out which horse wins first, second, third with such little information.

Am keying Taisei Current on trio. Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes definitely must be the top-level race for 2-year-olds. I thought it was better not to perform too well in such a high-level race considering the damage. Also, drawing the inner post would be an advantage for Maurice descendants. On the wheel would be Acrux, Lila Emblem, Arte Veloce, Licantropo, and Arlington Row.

I'm not so sure about the horses on the wheel. Think I'll buy some quinellas again, say, from Arte Veloce. Hope my hard work pays off.

The End

Caterpillar

7:39 p.m. I've done it again! As I've said yesterday, I was going to buy the quinellas of Lila Emblem and Licantropo keying Arte Veloce but have changed the ley to Taisei Current at the last minute... and my three-wins-in-a-row for the first time in my life went down the sewer.

It's apalling how I always change the key at the last minute just to lose a race. I think there may be a name for it in the field of psychology. Normalcy bias?

No, it's not that. My action of changing decision I guess, is related to fear, anxiety, and the desire for reward. I wonder if there's a name for this, like when you suddenly change your mind when something such as an event is actually about to happen? If there's a name for it, I have a hunch I could tackle it to overcome it.

Perhaps I should read Alfred Adler?

Yutaka did a sloppy job with Tsaisei Current, by the way. It's something rare for such a skilled, super jockey like him, but he should have took the lead himself in this case as Maurice descendants tend to be too clumsy to shift the speed up and down. It's a pity.

The End

Caterpillar

7:47 p.m. There was a name for my mental state to act impulsively right before the race. I figured it as the so-called "fight or flight response".

The cause of my fear and anxiety is the time of the race that, the barriers would open and the horses would jump out from them to start the race in less than 10 minutes got me anxious and scared. The key for my quinellas are a bit shaky, but I don't have enough time to reconsider it. What if I couldn't make it before the closing bet?

It sounds ridiculous when I'm calm, really. There's no need to feel anxious as if the bets were closed already, I would save my betting money. I'm also wasting my own time and effort with my behavior by changing what I'd thought out over a course of days. How disappointing!

Well, now that I know what was going on with myself, I think I could do something with it.

The End

Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. Pullig myself together, let me focus on ... not the Keisei-hai, the trial race for 3-year-olds at Nakayama, Nikkei Shinshun-hai at Chukyo.

I'm not really sure about the features of Chukyo 2200m, though I have a hunch it would be better to stick with Chukyo rather than diving into another three-year-old race. I'm once bitten twice shy, you know. Well, I might change my mind depending on how my preparations turn out. If Nikkei Shinshu-hai's level seemed to be lower than I expected, then I might switch to Nakayama.

Luckily, Nikkei-Shinshun-hai also has three years of data when it was held at Chukyo, just like last week's Shinzan Kinen. Let's start digging from there.

The End

Caterpillar

7:27 p.m. There were a lot of thing to do today, including some shopping in the early afternoon. What kept me busy was that everything focused in the afternoon that I hadn't been able to do my preparation for the race. Computer trouble (not mine, my client's) has also popped up to top up my list of things to do, making me to compress the list.

Just took a quick glance at the past results of Nikkei Shinshu-hai, which brought me back the memory of Yoho Lake. I remember feeling that the race results were just as if the horses had run on Kyoto turf. The pace lagged and it became an instantaneous speed contest, though requiring long-lasting speed at the same time.

There seem to be a couple of horses that might want to take the lead this year including Meisho Tabaru, so I wonder what the pace might be like? Also, I need to check out the weather for Chukyo as it could become a power race depending on the weather and track condition.

Anyway, the entry has been closed and there will be 16 horses running this year, which is a good thing regarding the payout.

The End

Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Checking out the result of the barrier draw. Hmmm. The front runners have mostly concentrated in the inner posts. Depending on how Touchwood moves, the pace might get tight.

Even if the first half didn't get so tight, it's highly likely to be required long-lasting speed and stamina. The results of the past three years back that up since five out of nine high performers were shortening their distances, which means they had been enhanced of their stamina. Year 2021 could be thought as an exception as the top three finishers were all from either from a same distance race or a shorter one however, the level of the competitors this year weren't that high with four of them over seven years old.

Although we are in for some rain in Tokyo from Sunday afternoon, Chukyo seems to be clear over the weekend. So I guess wouldn't have to worry about front runners holding out till the finish line. Hopefully, it would be a paradise for trailers.

The End

Caterpillar

9:25 p.m. I'm in trouble. I've come down to seven horses to bet on for Nikkei Shinshun-hai, but I just can't decide the last one horse to delete. Nor can I decide which horse to key on my wheel. Hmmm, wha should I do?

Currently, Shonan la Punta is the odds-on favorite, though I'm not sure if the horse would perform better than Kikka-sho, his previous race. He's shortening the distance from Kikka-sho, which is supposed to be a good step concerning Nikei Shinshun-hai as mentioned earlier however, I'm skeptical if that would work well with Kizuna descendants. My impression of Kizuna descendants is that they raise their performance going up front when exteding the distance. So although Shonan la Punta has finished third in Kobe Shinbun-hai, which was run on the same course and distance as Nikkei- Shinshun-hai, I can't fully trust the horse.

Many fans must be feeling the same way, thus the odds in spite of being the most favored. If so, I shouldn't key Shonan la Punta. But then, who? Besides, there are still seven horses left!

Will leave my temporary conclusion here. Right now I'm down to Meiner Emperor, Keiai Sandera, Meisho Tabaru, Wholeness, Satono Glanz, Veloce Era, and Shona la Punta. And Shonan la Punta will not be keyed. I'm thinking of keying either Satono Glanz or Veloce Era at the moment.

The End

Caterpillar

8:08 p.m. Eventually, I crossed out Keiai Sandera and bought trios keying Veloce Era, as well as quinellas keying Meiner Emperor and look what happened. First place winner, Lord del Rey. Second, Shonan la Punta, third Meiner Emperor, fourth Veloce Era, fifth Satono Glanz. Thank you, thank you everyone, I won an amazing 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th.

Off the record, I secretly wished a meteor would come shooting down from the sky to hit Lord del Rey.

Lord del Rey, were there any horse by that name? A Lord Kanaloa descendant, totally slipped my eyes. Why, of course, if it was going to be a tight-lapped race, a Lord Kanaloa descendant could have been a good choice. It just didn't hit me yesterday.

The End

Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. Okay, next!

Next will be AJCC. It's not a handicapped race like Nikkei Shinshun-hai. Also, there are a lot of familiar names (and faces) unlike last week. Additionally, the Roberto line still seems to be doing well on Nakayama, whereas AJCC is one of the grade races that Roberto line performs well in.

Chuck Nate has got the wong side of me last year, I just remembered. Things won't be the same as last year I reckon, given that the track would be more dry and firm compared to last year with the horse getting older just coming back from a long break of five months.

Danon Decile might be the most favored, but I don't trust him especially, not after running both Kikka-sho and Arima Kinen. Lebensstil would also attract attention probably. Likely dubious. Personally, I think the barrier (and the pace) would be a large factor for this horse.

I see the name of Boldog Hos on the entry list. Hmm, rather attracts my attention than the former mentioned two.

The End

Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. Nakayama turf 2200m is another characteristic course. The famous grade races run on this outer course would be Centlight Kinen, All Commer and this week's AJCC.

The features of this course is that there's the notorious uphill soon after the start as well as the long downslope after the second corner. Because of these two features, races run on nakayama turf 2200m rarely gets into a tight pace, gradually catching up speed from the backstretch with trailers moving to raise their positions before entering the third corner. The furlong lap tends to inch up towards the finish line until the horses reach the heart-breaking hill. Overall, the pace usually settles for a slow or average.

I'm not sure which horse would take the lead at this point yet, possibly, Auswahl? Oh, but must be careful as papa Yokoyama seems to be riding Matenro Leo. Haven't forgotten about Arima Kinen, you know? Yokoyama senior must be frustrated regarding Danon Decile, so he might go out ouf control. No, not the horse, the rider.

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. Unexpected trouble popping up here and there.

Since Cow insisted, we went out for lunch to a nearby Tenya to have some Tendon and it turns out that the shop was already gone. Plywood had been applied to cover where there used to be an entrance, which probably meant that the shop was gone never to return.

After we missed our Tendon, we were met with another trouble. One of the major email address distributors has apparently banned the account that I was using to send data to Cow, although I have no idea why. I was accessing its mailbox online by typing in the password, so I might have mistyped once or twice. So I can understand if the account gets locked for security reasons. But ban the account?

Since they'd banned the account and there seems to be no way to recover it, now we have to change the email address of countless services, duh!

Thanks to these incidents, I haven't had time to check out further info on AJCC. Though I've found another horse worth attention apart from Boldog Hos, Born This Way. I think Nakayama Kinpai is not a bad step for AJCC. If the horse keeps (or improves) its condition despite the two-week interval and drew an inner post, perhaps it might become a good choice.

The End

Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. My time, my precious time has been spent on searching about account ban and whether there is a way to recover it, while stupid Cow has been fiddling with his smartphone game. Hey, wasn't it your account that's causing all this trouble? I got my own list of things to do, you know?

Meanwhile the entry for AJCC has been closed today and there will be 18 horses running this year. A full-field race is great. But Uchida for Boldog Hos? Isn't this the first time? I wouldn't say Boldog Hos is an easy horse to handle, so it could be the downside for the horse.

On the other hand, Born This Way's rider will be Takuya Kowata, the same as the past eight races. That seems safer.

Haven't typed in the necessary data yet so I'll have to work on that tomorrow while juggling other tasks, such as writing and sending an inquiry mail, making documents to share online due for tomorrow evening, procede with reading a library book, visit the clinic to pick up some medicine, and my daily exercise in between. Oops, I also need to find paprikas somewhere. It can't be helped during winter, but they're getting too pricy for a vegetable as well as cabbages.

The End

Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. It's Friday and so the barriers have been drawn and announced for AJCC, while I've been too ocupied with work and house chores that my preparations haven't made any progress at all. Tsk.

From the lineup of AJCC, it's more likely for the pace to lag. However, Auswahl who'd probably take the lead has drawn an outer post with Born This Way in the outmost barrier and Matenro Leo on the inner side. If Matenro shows any signs of going up front, the pace might get slightly faster say, average. I'd better keep that in mind, too.

Danon Decile, currently the second favored in win odds looks quite dangerous. I assume he wouldn't perform well when he has to jostle for his position in the field, which, in this case, is highly possible to happen. In an extremely slow-lapped Arima Kinen, Danon Decile was able to take the lead himself to avoid his weak point, though I doubt if he could do the same this time.

I'll think about Lebensstil and what to do with him tomorrow as I have to go to sleep early tonight. I have a medical check-up tomorrow morning and have to get up at least three hours earlier than usual because of it.

The End

Caterpillar

8:12 p.m. I tried hard to get up early and barely made it for my check-up and my effort is taking a toll on me now coming back repetitively in waves of terrible sleepiness. While I'm fighting them back over and again, the task of calling AJCC has taken long to finish.

Despite my concerns for the rider, I ended up with keying Boldog Hos for my trio wheel. It was pretty difficult to choose a horse to key since there weren't a horse that I could put full trust in. Eventually, I convinced myself with Boldog Hos. I'm not asking him to win, I'm just hoping he'd finish above third place, which I hope is not too much to ask for. On the wheel would be Lebensstil,, Danon Decile, Byzantine Dream, Auswahl, and Born This Way.

As mentioned, I can't put my full trust on even Boldog Hos, so I'll buy quinellas keying Lebensstil with Danon Decile and Born This Way, crossing my fingers.

The End

Caterpillar

7:27 p.m. My AJCC ended in a complete failure and I'm very disappointed with Lebensstil.

I did think Lebensstil was an all-or-nothing type, which is the reason why I keyed him on my quinellas. Well, I would be lying if I said I trusted the horse completely, but this was a race he had to win.

It was, as a matter of fact, a risk that he'd drawn an inner post. Lebensstil is pretty much an agressive type of horse that accelerates rather forcefully, thus winning impressively when he wins. Because he picks up speed in one long streak when taking over other horses, the least he wants is to hit the brakes in the middle of acceleration, or being trapped in the field unable to step on the gas pedal. So there's always a risk when he draws an inner post in a full-field, slow-lapped race.

Today, Lebensstil seemed locked along the rail by Danon Decile, while Cosmo Kuranda sweeped up the outside of Danon Decile. Christophe mentioned that the horse has ran out of stamina after they ran up the hill, so perhaps the weight gain of 12kg also might have been the cause of the loss.

Now that I learned another weak point of Lebensstil, maybe I should wait until he enters a small field race. I think the horse is a lion at home and a mouse abroad.

The End

Caterpillar

8:29 p.m. Haven't finished the review of AJCC yet as I had to work. Will do tomorrow as I'm running out of time today. You see, I'm on a challenge to sleep earlier in order to get up earlier at least, in the morning. It's my day three, which is quite important in the sense it could be the turning point of whether I could make changes in my lifestyle or not.

Nakayama races for the beginning of the year are now over and the stage will move on to Tokyo dirt, with February Stakes, the first G1 of this season waiting just a few weeks ahead. One of the major step races for the G1 will be run this weekend, Negishi Stakes. Must be on the alert as we might be having either rain or snow from Saturday night to Sumday morning.

Okay, gotta go!

The End

Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. Review done. I just realized that Silkroad Stakes ws running at Kyoto on the same day as Negishi Stakes. Win Carnelian, Big Caesar are entered in spite of the heavy weight they're going to carry in this handicapped race. Surely, these horses are aiming for Takamatsuno-miya Kinen, which means they are possibly not fully prepared for Silkroad Stakes. There hasn't been a horse in the past ten years that finished above third place carrying weight over 59, just for your information. Intriguing.

As for Negishi Stakes, I usually go for the horses that have fastest furlong time forthe last three furlongs. Such horses seem to perform well especially when the track is wet and soft. As I already said yesterday, the forecast is predicting some rain or snow around Saturday night. Hope it becomes a tailwind.

Ha! Just noticed the name of Suzuka Kotekitai on the entry list of Negishi Stakes. Sorry, but no, thanks.

The End

Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. I'd like to congratulate myself for working hard again today. I'm keeping up with my challenge, too. Nevertheless, somehow I run out of time and am hurrying as best as I could.

Let's take a look at the past results of Negishi Stakes with what little time I have left of today's working hours.

Perhaps there are impressions of front runners doing well in this short distance race, but as amatter of fact, 21 horses (out of 30 that finished above third place in the past 10 years) are performing well turning the last corner at 6th from the leading horse or more behind. The pace haven't dropped to slow in the past 10 years, and this might be the reason for the trailers having advantage.

I've mentioned making much of horses that have faster records of the finishing furlongs, and I'm thinking that the first half of 35 seconds-range can be a standard.

The End

Caterpillar

8:04 p.m. The entry has been closed and 16 horses will be running in this year's Negishi Stakes. What I fear, though is that the race level might be moving downwards.

Thanks to the development of transport and traiing, more horses are entering big races overseas, which I think is lowering the level of Japanese races, especially dirt races. Having only two G1 races in a year, good dirt horses tend to seek their success in overseas races like Saudi Cup or Dubai World Cup, or even Breeders' Cup. Take Forever Young, for example.

I'm afraid this trend has contributed to the downgrade of Japanese dirt G1s, as you can see from Lemon Pop's racing results. Additionally, it has also effected grade races such as Negishi Stakes, which you can see by the 2-seconds' gap between the finishing record of 2023 and 2024. It's a pity but this year doesn't seem to be an exception.

What I want to say is, that I shouldn't be bound by past traditions of horses running Champions' Cup or Musashino Stakes as their step. After all, last year's Champion, Emperor Wakea had just won a 3-wins class in his previous race.

The End

Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. Getting really sleepy, here. Okay, the barriers ave been drawn, but I'm not sure what to make of the pace nor the track condition.

Since several sprinters such as Kurojishi Joe, Don Frankie, A Shin Spotter, and Suzuka Kotekitai are entered, surely the pace won't lag. Though I'm not sure whether it would be tight or average. The front runners seemed to have got clustered in inner posts, which might not stimulate the pace so much.

Another thing is that the dirt track condition of Tokyo is uncertain. Well, how could I be certain when the forecasters aren't sure if it's going to snow or not, and from when?

Today's morning forecast said that it's likely that nothing would be falling from the sky in Tokyo until around a little past Sunday noon. That is too vague a prediction regarding calling races, but will have to make do with what information I have. Who knows? Maybe I'll have more info tomorrow.

Must go now as my challenge is on the brink of falling apart.

The End

Caterpillar