8:14 p.m. Leaving my regretfulness aside, let's start thinking about Osaka-hai.

Osaka-hai is run on the inner course of Hanshin, and because it starts from the homestretch right before the famous uphill climb, Osaka-hai is rarely run at a tight pace. Nevertheless, it rarely becomes an instataneous speed contest either, thanks to the hill. The setting requires long-lasting speed and power to perform well therefore, front runners have been the regulars of Osaka-hai.

In addition, horses running the same distance as their previous races as well as horses extending the distance have been performing more highly than horses shortening their distances from their last race possibly, due to the leisurely pace. The only two horses winning this race by shortening the distance in the past 10 years were the 2017 champion Kitasan Black and last year's winner, Bellagio Opera.

Kitasan Black and Bellagio Opera, they're both basically front runners!

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Caterpillar

8:04 p.m. Desierto entered in Osaka-hai seemed to have been seeking for a rider. Today Kenichi Ikezoe was anounced to ride Desierto in Osaka-hai.

Desierto reminds me of Kinko-sho where he took the lead on a tough track to hang in on the fourth place, despite lacking harmony in the first half of the race. I'm not sure what the problem was with the horse, but I don't see Yutaka being troubled so often. Desierto was clearly mibehaving in the back stretch giving Yutaka a hard time.

I wonder if Ikezoe could handle Desierto? The horse might fight to break away in the begining of the race just like he did in Kinko-sho. If the rider loses the battle against the horse, the pace could get tight as well as Kinko-sho.

Well, since I can't do anything but worry until the barriers are drawn and announced, let me leave it as it is or now.

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Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. The entry has been closed for this weekend's Osaka-hai and it will be a 15-horse race. I thought there were more registered?

Okay, so King's Palace and Babbitt scratched off, huh? I can understand King's Palace. Kinko-sho was quite a tough race, the 6-year-old might have to pay the price for finishig in third place.

But I wish Babbitt would have stayed for two reasons. One, because if the two front runners Babbitt and Desierto drew barriers wide apart from each other, there might have ben a chance for this year's Osaka-hai to run at a tight pace. The second reason is because if Babbitt didn't scratch off, it would have been a full-field race which is very much welcomed, from my personal point of view. I may be asking too much of Babbitt, though as he's already 8 years old, older than King's Palace.

Now that the only runaway left is Desierto, the possibility of him taking the lead at a tight lap is not high, except for the case when the horse tries to break away as he did in Kinko-sho.

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Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. So the barriers have been drawn and announced.

If Desierto could be cotrolled to keep his cool, the pace would be average as mentioned earlier. The remaining question now, is the track condtion. It seems rain is expected Sunday morning, but forecasts are divided concerning how much it will rain.

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Caterpillar

8:48 p.m. Dozing off while desperately trying to focus on calling Osaka-hai.

I thought I should upload my current conclusion before I doze off and lose consciousness again, so here it is.

I haven't exactly hashed out the details inside me yet, though I feel like Stellenbosch will do. I mean, I checked out the video of Hong Kong Vase 2024 only to be impressed by her performance. But then, if I think she's going to finish either first ot second, she should be keyed for my quinellas. Then which horse would come in third? Bellagio Opera? Hmm, that sounds sensible. Then Bellagio Opera it is.

Trios keying Bellagio Opera on a wheel of Boldog Hos, Yoho Lake, Cosmo Kuranda, Desierto, and Stellenbosch. Quinellas keying Stellenbosch with Bellagio and Desierto, maybe?

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Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. So Ikezoe couldn't handle Desierto as I'd feared. Jockeys as well as horses, are also living creatures and they too must have biological clocks. Ikezoe is now in a stage to have good times and bad times. That slipped my mind. I've been deceived by the runaway he performed with Sunrise Earth.

Desierto screwed the start and when Ikezoe urged the horse a bit, he charged off and went out of control to hit the 57-seconds range in the first half. I was alarmed that the pace could get tight when it comes to Desierto however, didn't have enough energy left yesterday to come up with a plan B.

I realized early this morning that Stellenbosch had a critical weak point that she probably didn't perform well shortening the distance, so I deleted her from my quinellas but that was as far as I got.

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Caterpillar

8:39 p.m. At last the classic races are starting from this weekend's Ohka-sho.

It's a mile race run on Hanshin 1600m, the same course and distance as Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. Therefore, the 2-year-old female champion of the previous year tend to do well in this race. Also, horses that have performed well in their previous races do well in Ohka-sho, since the trials as well as step races are mostly shorter than a mile.

For these reasons, recent Ohka-shos don't pay out so big. If you're looking for a dark horse, perhaps you might want to check out the horses that have lost below 5th place in their last race before Ohka-sho for they possibly won't be that favored. It might be better, though to know that only the horses that have finished above third place in the race before their last race performed highly in Ohka-sho.

Another thing that seems to stand out is that horses starting from either the ninth or tenth barrier in Ohka-sho have high ratio of making it to the podium.

Well, I think I'll just stick to my old style of checking out the registered horses according to the trial race groups.

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Caterpillar

8:58 p.m. Let me start digging into the trial races from a classic trial for Ohka-sho, Tulip-sho. Four horses are entering after running in Tulip-sho previously, Kurino Mei, Water Gerbera, Vip Daisy and Namura Clara.

Getting straight to the point, of these four I think Vip Daisy has the chance to perform better than Tulip-sho most, provided that she draws an inner post at a tight pace. This year's Tulip-sho wasn't such a tough race I'm afraid. Therefore, I don't accept this Tulip-sho group to be reliable. Vip Daisy has already performed highly in last year's Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, which backs up her high potential. In order to draw out her high potential at the maximum, it might be better if it became a tough power race.

The rest is up to Miyuki, I guess.

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Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. Today I'm looking at Fillies' Review as there are annually some horses entering Ohka-sho from this race.

Despite its popularity, Fillies' Review in my recognition, is not a good step for Ohka-sho. As a matter of fact, there were only three horses that finished above third place in Ohka-sho in the past 10 years. Because Reine Minoru left a strong impression when winning Ohka-sho 2017, Fillies' Review looks attractive as a step trial. However, Reine Minoru was already a third place winner in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies the former year.

Additionally, most horses that perform well in 1400m ususally don't in a mile race especially when they're extending the distance to 1600m.

Six horses that ran Fillies' Review are entered this year, but I'm afraid they won't be able to reach the Ohka-sho podium. Perhaps Shonan Xanadu might have a chance on soft track? But that's about all I can think of.

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Caterpillar

9:08 p.m. My analysis of each step trials haven't finished yet, but the barriers have already been drawn and announced for Ohka-sho.

I don't see any horse that stands out as a runaway apart from Mistress. If Mistress takes the lead, the pace would either be average or slow I assume. That means horses starting from outer posts and are non-front runners will be forced to have a difficult race.

Unless.... unless the inner part of the turf gets severely damaged by the start of Ohka-sho.

Speaking or turf condition, forecasts are predicting rain around Hanshin Racing Course on Sunday. It's said to start raining from about the time the date changes, going on until late afternoon. There's a chance for the track to become soft. Not to mention, such track condition would give advantage to front runners.

Will keep on the alert for the forecast.

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Caterpillar

7:57 p.m. The chance of Ohka-sho running on soft track is getting higher.

The forecast predicting precipitation around Hanshin Racing Course on Sunday has been revised upfrom 1 mm per hour to 2 or 3 for early afternoon. The current turf condition that JRA has announced this morning claims that it's firm and dry despite some rainfall on Thursday however, if the rain really does fall as the forecast predicted, the turf condition is highly likely to become good to firm, or even soft.

When the track is soft, the horses that benefit most would be horses that have performed well on turf 1800m, as the characeter ofthe race would lean towards 1800m. Of course, the horse needs to be able to handle the soft track, though.

The reason why Arma Veloce, Lynx Tip, Embroidery are favored seems to make sense.

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Caterpillar

8:56 p.m. Half sleeping as usual. I wish I could just turn my life around to lead a sound one so I could stay awake until dinner and get up in the morning.

If my (temporary) conclusion seems like a rushed job, let me tell you that it's not just because I'm sleepy. It's because of the track condition which is not certain at this point. I'm assuming it would be good to firm, but you never know these days. Who can I blame if there's a hailstorm?

Am thinking of keying Lynx Tip for my trio. If the pace doesn't get tight and the track wet, I think it will be a great chance for this horse. Even if she drops her position, Mirco could sweep up the outside. On the wheel would be Erika Express, Vip Daisy, Embroidery, Arma Veloce, and Twilight City, althoug it sounds kind of run-of-the-mill.

As for my quinellas, I'm matching Embroidery and Lynx Tip with Arma Veloce.

The End

Caterpillar

8:29 p.m. The turf condition turned out to be firm in the morning and I have to say I was quite disappointed. But then, it turned to good to firm in the afternoon. Great! That's what I wanted.

Eventually, I switched the key horse between trio and quinella, which didn't make much difference after all. I also deleted Twilight City to replace her with Brown Ratchet while pondering whether I should buy Ma Puce or not. In the end I gave up Ma Puce. Maybe she'll have another chance in a different setting possibly, in Oaks.

Congrats to those who won. I won, too thanks. Don't bicker about the small payout my friends, the important thing here is to not lose money.

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Caterpillar

6:35 p.m. Leaving the Ohka-sho review aside, my head is already filled with Satsuki-sho. I can't get it out of my mind.

Twenty-one horses are entered at this point where Croix du Nord, last year's Hopeful Stakes winner is assumed to be the odds-on favorite. Usually, I'd try to avoid Hopeful Stakes champions as there's a high risk of damage remaining however, this horse has won easily almost making me forget that Hopeful Stakes actually was a G1.

Rival horses also bring up the spirit of the first male classic race this year. Museum Mile is having Moreira in the saddle, while Vincentio is ridden by Christophe following Yayoi-sho, which is the all-time major trial race to Satsuki-sho. And then, there's Satono Shining who won Kisaragi-sho after performing a match race with Croix du Nord in Tokyo Sports-hai. King Squall wasn't really in good condition at the time of Spring Stakes when he finished third, moreover, there's another undefeated horse besides Croix du Nord, Eri King.

How could one keep cool after seeing the entry form? How?

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Caterpillar

9:19 p.m. It was a super-busy day and I'm pretty much tired, so I'm going to run through one of the major trial races of Satsuki-sho.

Yayoi-sho is the most prestigious step trial for Satsuki-sho, run on the same course and distance however, because of this reason winning Yayoi-sho sometimes can backfire as leftover damage.

This year's Yayoi-sho winner Faust Rasen has earned himself an impressive win after surprising us finishing third in Hopeful Stakes. But the horse has been performing well on 2000m turf three races in a row, which makes me suspect his condition. I'm afraid Faust Rasen would downgrade his performance this time even if he was blessed with a similar setting as Yayoi-sho in other words, an average pace on soft track.

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Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. After digging into Yayoi-sho, I've evaluated each horse as follows. Of the five horses that have ran in Yayoi-sho, Vincentio is the most likely to upgrade its performance in Satsuki-sho, provided that he draws an outer post at an average pace. Alohi Alii might upgrade his performance if the pace gets tight. Tjuta seems interesting in the sense that he won't be too favored, but he will need an outer post as well as tight lap in order to make a dramatic comeback.

I've also took a quick look at the Spring Stakes group. Among the four horses that previously ran in Sprng Stakes, King Squall seems to me the most attractive if he draws an outer post at a tight pace. Fukuno Blue Lake might also have a chance if he draws an inner post at an average pace however, you might be alerted of his condition as he has the risk of fatigue.

Sorry for the brief analysis, though I'm doing the best I can under tight schedule.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. The barriers for Satsuki-sho have been drawn and announced.

This lineup makes me think of a tough pace. If the pace gets tight, trailers from the outside will have the advantage. But you can't stay too far behind as its Nakayama, with the short homestretch and the heartbreaking hill.

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Caterpillar

8:40 p.m. It's been another busy day, what with going down to the clinic to pick up some medicine, sending messages to my clients, and cleaning since stupid Cow has invited Mr. N-jima for the weekend.

Speaking of stupid Cow, he's reviewing the race video of all the favored horses saying, "Aw, this is a great horse!" with every video. Well, they all look great when they win, you know.

As for me, I haven't had the time to prepare for Satsuki-sho yet. I'm hoping I could make it in time tomorrow. Luckily, the rain that I worried about doesn't look like it's going to fall this weekend. Will have to wait and see what the results would be like tomorrow to guess the track condition, but if the turf stays firm and fast, perhaps Museum Mile could be interesting.

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Caterpillar

9:15 p.m. As you already know, I haven't been able to do my preparations this week. Therefore, it's taking more time to call Satsuki-sho than usual.

I've just come down to about eight horses depending on the situation. If the pace doesn' get so tight, I think it's going to be Croix du Nord and Satono Shining with an additional horse like Vincentio or Alohi Alii breaking in.

However, in case the lap gets tight as I feared, things would be different. King Squall and G T Adamant, Museum Mile and even my Fukuno Blue Lake will have better chances if the race runs at a tight pace.

Anyway, the only thing I know at this point is that the track is firm and fast, real fast. I'm expecting a finishing reord of 1 minute 57 to 58.

The End

Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. It was a terrible weekend. After all, I shouldn't have bought betting tickets for a race that I can't decide the pace especially, unprepared.

I read the pace wrong and lost Satsuki-sho completely, I missed my daily exercise because Mr. N-jima arrived earlier than usual, have been caught up in an emergency call from a friend. Now I'm left with another busy week with a urging deadline and dirty rooms. Frustrating.

And then when I took a peek at this weekend's Milers' Cup to cheer me up a bit, they tell me only 10 horses are entered. I almost fell to my knees.

The End

Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. Unbearably sleepy. I had to get up early to visit the family grave today and I'm paying the price now.

The uninteresting lineup of Milers' Cup is making me even more sleepy and I feel like I might drop and fall asleep. Of the ten horses entered, three of them are 7 years old and one is 8 years old. That means almost half of the competitors are aged horses that haven't won this race in the past ten years.

Perhaps I should take a look at Flora Stakes run on Saturday?

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. Have taken a look at the entry form of Flora Stakes (Oaks trial) and this race seems to have enough entrees to perhpas make it to a full-field race as it annually is. Although Flora Stakes looks inviting, I think I should focus on Milers' Cup for now, since Flora Stakes runs on Saturday while I have time restrictions.

Getting back to Milers' Cup. Considering that either Theo or Labeling takes the lead as well as that it's going to be a small field race, it's hard to think the race would be run at a tight pace. That is, unless these two front runners draw barriers far apart from each other, because then either of them could rush to take the lead, resultingly pulling the rest of the field at a tight lap.

Sunday Silence line's instantaneous speed could become essential regardless of the pace. Also, the finishing clock usually tends to get quite fast as it's the opening week for Kyoto Racing Course.

The End

Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. The entry for the weekend's races have been closed and Yomiuri Milers' Cup this year will run with only 10 horses as I feared. It feels so lonely. I checked to see if there were times when this race had been run with such a small field of horses and found out that there actually were.

There were three times in the past 10 years when this race was run with less than 12 horses, 2017, 2019, and 2020. I wonder if it was sheer coincidence that the race was run at a slow pace in all of these three years?

Hmmm, this is pretty difficult. Epecially when most horses haven't performed well in their previous races. Well, I'll wait till the barrier draw and see if it could help me in any way.

The End

Caterpillar