8:49 p.m. So here I am looking at the racing form with the barriers.

Conch Shell and Alice Verite are likely to make the pace, and I'm skeptical if the pace would drop to a slow. My guess is that the pace would flow at about average with the winning record pretty fast like last week.

Oh yes, there was Christmas Parade, too! Now, the pace won't be slow. Lukewarm front runners starting from outer posts however, will have to bear the distance loss while pulling the field at a certain pace. Sounds like another chance for lady Rachel King.

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Caterpillar

7:57 p.m. Huuuuhhh!? Lesedrama and lady Rachel King has become the most favored in win odds before I knew it! How did that happen? I thought the most favored would be Argine.

Well, it's not strange for everyone else to think what I can come up with my puny little brain. Lady Rachel's grade race wins two weeks in a row might have been added on to the favor. That's not hard to imagine.

I guess then you won't be surprised if I keyed Lesedrama on my trio wheel with Pareja, Verehrung, Beyond the Valley, Argine and Alice Verite.

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Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. That's strange. Queen Stakes was run at a tight lap. I thought that'd be just the race for Lesedrama to sweep up the outside, though she couldn't close the gap and finished in 10th place.

The position of Lesedrama dropping behind was expected since she was shortening th distance from 2400m and it wasn't just the bad start that caused the loss. One thing that strikes me is the track condition.

The ground has become firmer than yesterday and with the turf less moist, it created a fast track condition clocking the race record for this year's Queen Stakes to be 1 minute 46 seconds flat.

Okay, so it was a fast track contest, I see. No wonder Coconuts Brown suddenly got favored.

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Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. So... which race should I bet on this week? Elm Stakes is intriguing not to mention, but as you might already know, I don't buy bettting tickets on Saturdays. I guess I'll just check out how Perriere performs. That is well, if Perriere is favored. In case he's not, I might even bend my rules to buy betting tickets.

That leaves either Leopard Stakes limited to 3-year-olds or CBC-sho, one of the summer sprint series.

Let's take a look at both of them and see wich one would be closer for me to win.

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Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. Haven't been able to do any research nor have I been able to decide which race to buy yet. It's been a super-busy afternoon and I'm drained by the enourmous heat. I sympathize with people living in areas with the high going over 40 degrees today. Take care.

As I've been saying over and over, we should all take offs in such heat. Some people worry that the economy would stop, though I don't think so. Aw, it's daunting that this heat is going to last for the whole week. Wish I could just jump in a pool and do nothing, think nothing. How nice it'd be if I could float around for a couple of hours!

On a second thought, maybe I'll try CBC-sho this week. It should b better than Leopard Stakes.

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Caterpillar

8:53 p.m. Having said that, CBC-sho seems hard to call. It's not just because it's handicapped, but also because it's been run in a different period or on a different course in recent years.

Until 2023, CBC-sho has been run on the first week of July every summer, except for 2019 when it was run on the last week of June. From 2020 to 2022, it wasn't run on Chukyo turf despite the race title CBC, which stands for Chubu-Nippon Broadcasting Co., Ltd., a broadcasting holding company located in Nagoya. Due to the renewal of Kyoto and Hanshin, CBC-sho was moved to Hanshin in 2020, and Kokura in 2021 as well as 2022. Moreover, JRA has swithched the racing schedule of CBC-sho with Kita-kyushu Kinen since last year. Hey, are you following?

It's too confusing that I'm already lost before even starting with the research. Will wait and see until tomorrow when the entry is closed.

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Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. It looks like the rain that I've been counting on won't fall so much in Chukyo.

If there was going to be enough rain as to soften the track as the forecast had been saying, I was thinking of deleting the most favored before even launching on my research for CBC-sho.

The entry has been closed with 18 horses, and the pace is likely to get tight with multiple horses that want to go up front. If soft track condition is added, it would be nonsense to bet on the odds-on favorite as such races usually go wild. But then, things didn't go as expected. The rain in Chukyo seems to be slight, extreme heat hasn't gone away in Tokyo.

Well, it can't be helped. Will have to do with it.

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Caterpillar

9:16 p.m. The barriers have long been drawn and announced and I'm barely finishing up with my data input task as I had work today, while my messenger keeps chirping, tsk. Wish they'd leave me alone.

I'm guessing CBC-sho could get into a tight lap. Craspedia probably would want to take the lead as well as Invincible Papa. June Blair, currently the most favored in expected win odds also has good speed, but I think Yutaka would want to keep him running second or third from the top. Whichever horse takes the lead, it won't be a safe trip with the most favorite horse sticking right behind.

Okay, I give up. Let's call it a day. Will think about the rest tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

9:02 p.m. Sleepy as hell. Putting up a tough fight although I'm not sure if I could hold out any longer.

The forecast has once again deceived me and now they're saying that rain will start falling in Chukyo from tonight. If the turf softens with rain tomorrow, the front runners will have the advantage even if the pace got tight.

Seven horses remaining on my list now, though I'm hoping I could carve them down to five by tomorrow. The names are Mild Claymore, June Blair, Pod Vader, A Shin Wand, Justin Sky, Culture Day, and Invincible Papa. Still undecided about Yamanin al Rihla.

My Perriere has won Elm Stakes today by the way. Shoulda bought this one.

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Caterpillar

8:42 p.m. It turns out that it didn't rain much in Chukyo and the track condition was anounced to be firm. Some forecast sites predicted the rain to b quite heavy, you know. I deserve an appropriate apology.

Swung around by the forecast as well as the track condition, I deleted Pod Vader and Mild Claymore, got torn between two Maurice descendants drawing inner posts T M Listed and Strauss, eventually picking Grand Est instead, hoping the pace would become tight.

Despite my desperate hope, the pace lagged. Grand Est sank low and although I had Culture Day on my wheel, my trio went off the target. Regretful, regretful indeed!

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Caterpillar

5:20 p.m. Regretful as I am, I have to move on to the next race, which is Sapporo Kinen. Darn, it's that time already!?

Sapporo turf was firm and fast this summer, fast enough that the records have been broken. However, it will be the last week for course A to be used in Sapporoby the time Sapporo Kinen will be run this weekend. Therefore, track bias could surface especially, when it has rained for the past several days in Saporo.

Forecast predicts mostly sunny skies for Sapporo for this week, though I don't trust that. At least not fully. Front runners performed well in two thirds of yesterday's Sapporo turf races and even if the weather stayed fair, I don't think this trend is going to change drastically. That means the trend for Sapporo Kinen high-performers would also stay unchanged, I guess.

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Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. 18 horses are entered for Sapporo Kinen at this point. But then, you never know. There may be only 12 horses actually running just like the other day.

The expected win odds show the most favored as Ho O Biscuits, followed by Stellenbosch, then Cosmo Kuranda. Ho O makes sense, though I'm afraid he'll need a middle to outward post to perform well, while how other front runners like Top Knife and Libyan Grass move might also hold the key to his performance. The rider's condition is also concerning since papa Iwata had a sick leave last week, if I remember correctly.

The popularity of Stellenbosch is understandable, too. They say Epiphaneia descendants don't raise their performance once they've went over the peak, though if Stellenbosch is going to shine one last time, it could be at Sapporo Kinen.

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Caterpillar

8:39 p.m. Of the top three favored horses in expected win odds, Cosmo Kuranda also has a convincing reason to be favored. He has high achievements when he swept up the outside, just as he did in Yayoi-sho, Centlight Kinen, or AJCC. If the pace in the first half of Sapporo Kinen drops, Cosmo Kuranda might be able to sweep up again given that he draws an outer post.

On the other hand, the two front runners besides Ho O biscuits might have their own problems when it comes to performing highly in Sapporo Kinen. Top Knife has finished second in Sapporo Kinen 2023, but it was his first race against older horses and he carried only 55kg at that time. It's obvious that the Top Knife crew has been aiming for this race, the horse hasn't performed well after the aforementioned Sapporo Kinen, although it's going to be his third try this year while his caryying weight has been increased to 58.

Where Lybian Grass seems slightly better than Top Knife is that at least, Lybian Grass is familiar with the weight. He has won a Kyoto turf 2200m carrying 58kg, though it was in a lower category.

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Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. Looking at the racing form of Sapporo Kinen, counting the number of horses running, munching Harimaya rice crackers (one of my favorite snacks!) sent from a relative. Apparently, no horse scratched off and 16 horses are running. It's going to be a full-field race this year, yay.

It seemed to have rained slightly around Sapporo, by the way. Also, light rain is expected from Sunday morning. Remember they said sunny skies wll last till the weekend at the beginning of this week? Ha!

I don't think the turf would be so soft, though that is, unless it actually rains a lot. Sapporo has a great drainage or so they say, after the renewal that finished in 2014. So the basical stance shouldn't be changed. As long as the pace doesn't get tight, it will be difficult for horsses from behind to reach the top three.

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Caterpillar

7:53 p.m. The barrier draw for Sapporo Kinen has been announced, and I realized that Auswahl also wanted to go up front. The leading battle then, might be between Keiai Sena and Auswahl. My guess is that Auswahl takes control, but you never know.

Ho O Biscuits has unfortunately drawn an inner post, which makes it harder for him to win unless the track gets soft so that there'd be more space between the horses. Lybian Grass also seem to share the same problem.

If Keiai Sena and Auswahl don't get into a fight to tighten the pace, it's likely for the trailers drawing outer posts to sink altogether. There were cases in the past ten years when trailers starting from outer posts had reached the podium, though the only two occasions both happened on good to firm track condition.

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Caterpillar

8:21 p.m. I give up. Have tried checking out several different forecasts but they all say differnt things that I can't be sure whether it would rain in Sapporo or not. If the weather is not certain, there's no way for me to assume the track condition.

The pace is likewise. I said there were multiple front runners earlier, but then the pace could drop if any of them screwed the start or deccided to stay behind.

How am I supposed to win such a race?

Just for your information, here's the trio I came up with keying Ho O Biscuits, the only horse I think I can trust, Lybian Grass, Struve, Stellenbosch, Top Knife and Al Naseem.

Maybe I should switch to Chukyo Kinen, even from now.

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Caterpillar

6:32 p.m. Who finished third? Arata!? Was he in this race together in the first place?

The track condition was announced to be good to firm, but the moisture seemed to be less compared to yesterday and horses with Deep Impact or Sunday Silence in their background were performing well. So I took it that the track was less power-consuming and replaced Top Knife, Al Naseem with Veloce Era, Coconuts Brown. Arata didn't hit me even in the wildest of my dreams.

I knew that Sapporo turf course A has been used for a couple of weeks and that the inner course was pretty damaged, though I wasn't quite sure what to make of it. Today's result must be the answer to how I should have guessed.

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Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. Having run five races in the rain, track bias surfaced at Sapporo turf. Otherwise, why would the podium be dominated by horses starting from outer posts? Top Knife started from post number 9, which might not be called an ":outer" post however, he was able to take the best position in this race while having high aptitude to power-consuming turf.

Feeling down as I haven't won a race for a long time. I've also been stood up by my client today. Keenland Cup will be held at Sapporo this week, but the course is going to change to course B, so the possibility of the track bias remaining is not high. Since I can't be confident, perhaps I might as well go for Niigata 2sai. After all, no one knows hat's going to happen in a 2-year-olds' race.

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Caterpillar

7:45 p.m. As I was starting to consider betting on Niigata 2-sai Stakes, the expected win odds revealed that it was going to be a small-field race as werll as that Realize Sirius was the odds-on favorite. My interest is waning already.

But then, Keenland Cup at Sapporo will be tricky. The turf course at Sapporo will change from the A course to B course this week. As already said, the inner part of A course had been damaged resulting in a biased track to support trailers from the outside. But JRA is going to set a temporary fence covering the damaged inner course from this week. The question is, whether the fence would really cover the damaged parts?

If the bad parts are all covered, the race results could change completely from last week to recover the usual Sapporo features to upport inner post starters and front runners.

Must check Saturday's race results super-carefully.

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Caterpillar

7:58 p.m. If the damaged parts of the inner Sapporo turf course is completely covered by the temporal fence, Keenland Cup is likely to reflect the normal features of Sapporo 1200m. Normally on Sapporo turf, inner post starters are advantaged even at tight pace. It could be said that horses starting from outer posts mostly could be ignored unless they can go up front or belong in higher category.

There's an exception to this, though. That is the track condition. When the rain hits the turf and it becomes soft, trailers starting from outer posts tends to get the treat.

What's tricky is that forecasts are predicting rain in Sapporo from Friday to Saturday. It seems rain has been falling on and off in Sapporo for the past couple of days while it's actually raining now, so it all depends on how long the rain is going to stay as well as how much it's going to dry off by Keenland Cup.

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Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. Have been busy all afternoon with work and then preparing for work. Now finally getting the chance to check out the closed entry form of both Niigata and Sapporo, I'm leaning towards Keenland Cup.

It feels like there are more uncertainties about Keenland Cup than about Niigata 2-sai Stakes, but 16 horses running is better than 10 horses. Will check out Niigata too, though. I need to see what the Niigata track condition is like before Niigata Kinen.

Okay, then Keenland Cup, it is!

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Caterpillar

8:55 p.m. Have done a blunder at work. The document I showed my client turned out to contain the wrong data. Another careless mistake. Wish I could do something about this carelessness, though I just don't know how. I wasn't like tis before, you know? Is it because I'm getting old?

Pair Pollux and Fioraia I guess, would be the candidates for the runaway. Although I'm not sure which would take the lead, the pace surely won't be slow.

It seemed to have rained on and off this week in Sapporo, but it seems we'll be blessed with some sunshine for the weekend. Meanwhile, the temporal fence JRA has put up on the turf course hasn't completely covered the damaged parts, according to the slideshow they've released. Now, what should I make of that?

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Caterpillar

9:21 p.m. Getting real sleepy here. Too sleepy I'm not sure what I'm doing.

Today's Sapporo turf races have been run on good to firm tracks until early in the afternoon and then, the codition improved to firm for the following three races. It looks like it's going to be sunny tomorrow, so the winning clock might get faster than today. Perhaps I should choose horses with speed and power rather tha toughness.

Right now I'm down to a wheel of six horses keying Panja Tower, though I've just realized that Panja is likely to drop the position in the race because he's shortening the distance. This might turn out critical depending on the pace, as trailers haven't been doing well today.

On the wheel now are Rapier, Kvasir, Morino Dream, Win Carnelian, Fioraia, and Karpuz Pelus.

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Caterpillar

7:19 p.m. Again, I've been confused, though I guess it's natural as the odds were split. That means all the fans are unsure which horse would win. I went this way and that, switching my key horse to Win Carnelian, Pair pollux, then back to Win Carnelian. I got to sleep in the morning determined to key Pair Pollux.

My determination crumbled away overnight and I was about to place my bet keying Win Carnelian, when I saw that he'd lost weight in two digits even though he was back from a 4-months' interval. That's not good for a power type like Win Carnelian, definitely not good.

Finally, I persuaded myself that life-span freshness was important in a sprint race to key Panja Tower again, putting Win Carnelian and Pair Pollux both on the wheel. I ditched Fioraia and Kvasir because UHB-sho seemed too lame as a step, to promote Namura Clara on the wheel.

Thank god I settled for Panja Tower. It's my first win in what? 4 months!!! Gee, that was long.

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Caterpillar

8:31 p.m. Well, 4 months of losses isn't such a big deal when you've piled up loss after loss for more than a whole year before. Still, I was relieved by the trio win in a while, I can't tell you how many times I've said to myself yesterday, "Well done, ME, for keying Panja Tower instead of Win Carnelian!" I even had unagi for dinner last night.

Okay, so enough of the celebration, let's move on. Niigata Kinen will be run this weekend. Niigata Kinen tends to run at a leisurely pace and together with the track bias around this time, which gives advantage to trailers coming up from the outside, it usually becomes a speed contest on the homestretch.

Energico with Christophe on his back is the most favored in expected win odds at this point, followed by Queen's Walk expectedly. However, I don't think I could fully trust Energico when he's just back from a fracture break.

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Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Speaking of Niigata Kinen, I always thought that all I have to do is bet on the outer post drawers with flahsing speed to cover the last three furlongs. Certainly, though we'd need more than that to win this race, which has been changed from a handicapped race to a special weight race this year. Unlike the past Niigata Kinen, the weight each horse carries will be decided summing up the basical weight for Niigata Kinen and respective weight according to the grade of the race the horse has won.

The carrying weight has always been an important factor especially, when the pace drops to slow. This year, there doesn't seem to be any horse among the entrees carrying weight lower than 54kg.

Also, horses running in a G1 previously, seem to be minorities in this race. In the past ten years, only six horses running in G1 races before Niigata Kinen finished above third place. It might be worth remembering that all of them had lost in the G1 races. Horses running in local summer races previously consist the major group of high-performers in Niigata Kinen.

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. It looks like the weather might hold until the weekend around Niigata. Hopefully, Niigata Kinen will be held on firm turf condition however, the inner part is pretty damaged so I'm guessing that the horses would be guided toward the outside fence on the homestretch just like Ibis Summer Dash. That's a familiar scene on summer Niigata turf.

Anyway, I can't say much before the barriers are drawn and since I won last week without digging in too deep during weekdays, I think I'll leave it rght there. I'd rather start preparing for my meeting with the same client I've done a blunder last week. Can't make the same mistake twice in a row.

Whereas two wins in a row is always welcome.

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Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. The entry for Niigata Kinen has been closed and there will be 17 horses running this year. As I always say, it's good to have many horses running in a race, whether it's a G1 or G3.

Forecasts say there may be a slight shower around Niigata Racing Course on Saturday afternoon, though apart from that the turf is likely to stay dry throughout the weekend. If the turf doesn't get soft with rain, it's likely for the finishing time to be in 1 minute 58 seconds range possibly, even in 57. In case when the pace drops to slow, trailers will need to cover the last three furlongs in the 32 to 33 seconds.

Well, that sure would be a speed race.

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Caterpillar