8:35 p.m. JRA has announced they're not selling advanced betting tickets for Negishi Stakes. I guess they're worried they might have to cancel the race tomorrow if it snows heavily. So it wasn't only me who were troubled by the weather.

Since no one can tell what the weather will be like tomorrow, I decided to ignore it and went on with calling Negishi Stakes. I've reached a temporal conclusion keying Sunrise Flame on my trios while making Hrimfaxi the key horse for my quinells. I said "temporal" because there's a slight possibility for me to make some changes specifically, like switching the two key horses.

My quinella wheel is basically chosen on the premise that the pace gets tight and I'd like to have Suleyman included in that case for third place, but then I'd have to buy them on trios. I also feel that Hrimfaxi, is a better horse to key than Sunrise Flame, if you thought naturally. Will let it sleep for a while since my concentration iswearing out, and decide later.

So on Sunrise Flame's wheel are Arms Reign, Hrimfaxi, Costa Nova, Alpha Mom, and Lord Fons. On Hrimfaxi's wheel currently, are Arms Reign, Alpha Mom, Lord Fons, and Suleyman.

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Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. I was hoping Sunrise Flame would stay more behind.

I assumed the pace would be tighter than his previous race Enif Stakes, which would naturally position Sunrise Flame somewhere behind 7th or 8th from the leading horse possibly, Don Frankie. In case the pace settled at average, Sunrise Flame would be pushed up to 2nd or 3rd from the top, the best position when a race is run at average pace. Either way, the horse would be positioned at a good spot and that's why I keyed him.

But then, Sunrise Flame went charging after Don Frankie when the first three furlongs were run in 33.9 seconds, almost as fast as a turf sprint race. My thoght out call went down the sewer.

There were also other mishappenings like Ishibashi falling from Tagano Beauty right after the start making the horse a runaway. Although it looks like an easy win, Costa Nova (and his rider) must have felt some difficulty with Tagano Beauty suddenly bolting in towards them.

Keying Hrimfaxi was totally my bad, as I'd known the risk he might downgrade his performance having drawn an innerp post. I have to choose horses with the least risks, though that's the hardest part when calling a race.

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Caterpillar

8:12 p.m. Moving on to Tokyo Shinbun-hai (with Stevie Wonder spinning in my head). Let the past be the past.

One look at the past 10 years' results tells you that post numbers 1 and 2 are performing well. Either of them have finished above third place five times in the past 10 years, while either post numbers 3 or 4 have reached the top three three times in the remainig five years. What this seem to suggest is that inner post drawers are apparently, advantaged.

Another thing that stands out is that the finishing record is quite fast as well as the last three furlongs. Back in the earlier years from 2015 to 2018, the finishing record settled in the 1 minute 34 seconds' range except when the track was relatively soft, but it has changed drastically after 2019 with the records significantly shortened varying from 1minute 33 seconds to 1 minute 31.8 seconds. The time record for the last three furlongs on the other hand, have been steadily fast usually in the 33 seconds range sometimes even faster, except for 2015 when the track condition was good to firm.

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Caterpillar

8:11 p.m. Have got myself a display stand from DAISO to adjust the height of my screen. It's a Cinderella fit, the height is perfect! Now I don't have to lean forward to lose my posture so I'm expecting it to contribute to improving my posture while I'm at the desk. Very much satisfied.

Getting back to Tokyo Shinbun-hai. Female horses are doing pretty well with 7 of them finishing above third place in the past ten years. Thanks to the establishment of external stable system, Tokyo Shinbun-hai is gaining popularity among female horses aiming for Victoria Mile Cup and they are making results.

Another good point about female horses are that they carry lighter weight. This becomes an advantage especially when the race is run at slow pace. But then, we must be careful of their positions, since even if they have great instantaneous speed and the advantage of lighter weight, they won't be able to reach the podium, let alone the top of it, in case when their positions are too far behind.

As already mentioned, the track is fast, which means the inner post drawers and front runners also have their advantages.

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Caterpillar

8:19 p.m. Let's look at the step races before Tokyo Shinbun-hai.

Of the 30 horses that finished above third place in the past ten years, 11 of them were shortening the distance from their previous races. Well, that's nothing rare. Lots of horses lose in longer distance races that didn't fit their aptitudes and then make a come back in the distance they can perform well.

However, you might as well keep in mind such horses are the ones that need instantaneous speed for the last three furlongs, as their positions tend to drop when shortening the distance. Perhaps it would be better if the there's a long break after the previous race, or have a different rider in the saddle preferrably, non-Japanese.

Also, you wouldn't have to worry about the result of the previous race when the distance was longer, since it could have been too long for the horse in the first place. If the horse has lost two races in a row, it would be more reliable if one of those step races had been a G1, because again, the horse must have been required more than its potential in a higher category, thus naturally unable to perform well.

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Caterpillar

9:05 p.m. Having a late start as I had lots of work to get done. The entry for Tokyo Shinbun-hai has been closed while I've been dutifully working on my tasks with 16 horses this year.

Wrapping up what I learned so far from the past results of Tokyo Shinbun-hai, I need to choose horses (including female horses) that have high aptitude for a speed track with great instantaneous speed, preferrably shortening distance from their previous races. If they're freshly back from a relatively long break with a rider change expecially, to a non-Japanese jockey, that would be even better. And if a particular hose has recently lost races two in a row, I can ignore it unless one of the races is a G1.

Five horses, Corazon Beat, Theo, Sonnig, Meisho Titan, Lagulf are to be deleted at this point, if I use the mentioned requirements as guidelines. Champagne Color and Matenro Sky are on the brink of being deleted. The rest will be up to the barrier draw, I guess.

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Caterpillar

8:55 p.m. Again, have been diligently getting my tasks done. I admit I had a struggle deleting my account from a downloading site, but I got it done and that's what matters.

Finally looking at the result of the barrier draw for Tokyo shinbun-hai. Hard to guess, though the pace won't be so tight if Meisho Titan takes the lead say, average to slow. That is, unless Theo claims to take the lead, which I think is unlikely because he drew an outmost post.

And if it's going to be an easy lap, outer post starters taking their positions behind would surely be disadvantaged, as they would have to bear the distance loss in case they raised their positions to go up front, yet if they stay behind, they won't be able to reach the top three.

In times like that, reliable options would be the inner post drawers that are shortening the distance from their previous races, not to mention, with instantaneous speed.

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Caterpillar

9:16 p.m. Very tired, though somewhat content as I've finished what I'd planned to do.

I struggled choosing horses for Tokyo Shinbun-hai, since the horses that drew inner posts almost all had their pros and cons. Plus, they were mostly horses that ususally take their positions behind, which becomes a risk especially when they're shortening the distance from their previous races, just like I mentioned earlier.

Additionally, today's turf races at Tokyo seemed to give advantage to front runners. So it was a task to find inner post starters that could take higher positions if need be. I have to remind you, though that it's only my assumption.

I'm keying Jun Blossom for my trios. If he stays behind, that might become his weak point as he's carrying 59kg. I decided to believe the weight as a form of expectation. On the wheel would be Sakura Toujours, Bond Girl, Allnatt, Brede Weg, and Theo. The quinellas were also hard and I'm still wavering between Bond Girl, Allnatt and Sakura Toujuours. My mind is on Allnatt currently, because he's the most likely to go up front.

The reason I'm underestimating Brede Weg by the way, is because she's the most favored and a year older than Bond Girl.

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Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. I didn't expect trailers drawing outer posts would perform so well as to win this race. Nor did I expect Meisho Titan would hang in third place.

What happened I guess, was that the pace settled at average. Meisho Titan taking the lead and remaining in third place without being taken over seems to explain that the front runners were advantaged in this situation. Additionally, Theo who followed Meisho towing Matenro Sky both performed better than they were expected, judging from their win odds.

Nevertheless, Water Licht... It's true trailers drawing outer posts were suddenly doing well today, but why Water Licht won is still a mystery. I thought they won't be able to take over the front runners before the finish line, and so eventually chose Bond Girl to key for my quinellas.

Will have to look into this, though it's encouraging that Bond Girl finished before Brede Weg. It feels like I got things right.

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Caterpillar

8:37 p.m. After analyzing Tokyo Shinbun-hai, I realized what made Water Licht perform so well.

When I compared the furlong time of Tokyo Shinbun-hai and Kyoto Kinpai, which was Water Licht's previous race, I learned that the first 1000m passed pretty much in the same speed. As a matter of fact, the maximum furlong time gap for the first 1000m for these two races were merely 0.3 seconds. What this means is that Kyoto Kinpai and Tokyo Shinbun-hai ran almost at the same speed until horses passed the 1000m furlong pole.

Naturally, horses that performed well in Kyoto Kinpai should do well again. Sakura Toujours, Meisho Titan, Water Licht, and Theo were all running Kyoto Kinpai in their previous race. But then, there's the leftover damage.

Sakura Toujours has made a flashy comeback in Kinpai from his huge loss in Sekiya Kinen, with barely no gap between the runner-up, Water Licht. That puts a lot of strain on the horse. Theo has also raised his position significantly from Casiopea Stakes. That's why these two horses didn't perform well in Tokyo Shinbun-hai, although the race flowed just like Kyoto Kinpai.

On the other hand, Meisho Titan who didn't have damage from Kyoto Kinpai as well as being able to take the lead this time raised his performance despite his age. Water Licht, likewise. There's a big difference between winning with little gap and finishing second with little gap, when it comes to the damage it leaves.

Okay! Mystery solved!

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Caterpillar

7:39 p.m. This week I'm going for Kyoto Kinen, so let's start checking out the features of this race.

Kyoto Kinen has annually been a small-field race and unfortunately, it doesn't look like 2025 can be an exception to this trend since only 13 horses are entered for this race. Regarding scratch-offs, the number of competitors can gow even smaller.

Because Kyoto Kinen has been run with small fields, it's been pretty sound with 70% of the most favored horse in win odds finishing above third place in the past 10 years. Therefore, I can't count on the payout. Especially, when Cervinia is entering.

Anyone can tell that Cervinia is going to be the odds-on favorite, what with Christophe in the saddle and 2kg lighter weight. There's a high possibility Cervinia would do well nevertheless, she might bring a dark horse behind her or evven in front of her. My goal for this week is to figure out which horse that'd be.

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Caterpillar

8:40 p.m. Collecting information to call Kyoto Shinbun-hai.

Annually, Kyoto turf around this time gets quite tough and power-consuming. Although Kyoto Race Course has experienced an irregular schedule having been shortened a week or two compared to the usual one, the turf condition seems overall similar to that of lst year's. Perhaps the snowfall last weekend has done a good job in that sense.

The latest three turf races run on the outer course, which is the same course as Kyoto Kinen, suggest that the turf is quite tough consuming both time and power even on firm condition. These three races held this Monday don't provide me with enough information since they were all small-field races run at an average pace, but front runners starting from outer posts seemed to do well.

After all, Kyoto Kinen is highly likely to be a small-field race as well. Maybe I should keep it in mind.

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Caterpillar

8:29 p.m. My sleeping habit improvement cmapaign has abruptly come to end in a failure a couple of days ago, and since then I haven't been able to get myself back into the challenge. I can't give up that easily, though. Will get back to the start to try again. It won't be a failure as long as I keep challenging.

Have checked out the step races for Kyoto Kinen and as you might easily imagine, all 30 horses that finished above third place in the past 10 years have run in grade races in their previous step races, including G1s, regardless of domestic or overseas. Babbitt, finishing third last year, ran a dirt race as a step however, it was Tokai Stakes, a reliable G2.

As far as the results of the past 10 years go, horses running in open class or lower category races have not performed well in Kyoto Kinen. Well, it's a Grade 2 race despite the small field. It won't be easy for lower stakes horses to beat grade winners.

Meanwhile, the entry has been closed for Kyoto Kinen. Shonan Bashitto has scratched off and it's going to be a 12-horse race as I'd feared.

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Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. All right, so the barrrier has been drawn. From the way the horses are lined up, it doesn't look like the pace is going to be tight, say, average to slow.

Given that, horses shortening the distance from their previous races will be disadvantaged unless they've drawn inner posts, because their positions are likely to drop and the they would have to bear the distance loss when they're made to run the outside of the course. Pradaria and Brave Rocker meet this condition, while Cervinia is in the grey zone.

Also, horses over the age of eight has never performed well in the past 10 years. Babbitt, Forward Again, and Echt fall in this category. Subtract five from twelve, great! I'm already down to seven horses at the moment.

Will have to check tomorrow's race results, though, whilst keeping in mind about the weather and track condition, as rain is expected on Sunday morning around Kyoto Racing Course.

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Caterpillar

8:28 p.m. Have checked the forecast but unsure how much it would rain tomorrow in Kyoto. It looks like it's going to be an occasional rain early in the morning, possibly a drizzle. So I'm assuming that the turf condition won't get that soft as good to firm.

Today's race results haven't been much help as there were only one turf race held on the outer course. It could be because the pace was average, though front runners seemed to be doing well just like last week. There's a temporal fence set up to cover the ruined inner parts of the turf from this week, so Kyoto Kinen will run on Course B. I wish there were more races in longer distances run on this course to collect information, but well, JRA needs to protect the course. Will do the best I can with what I have.

As I've been saying throughout the week, it's a small-field race and you can't count on the payout, thanks to Cervinia. Therefore, I decided to take a gamble on trifectas, formation. First row, Cervinia and Seiun Hades, second row, Sol Oriens, Cervinia, Seiun Hades, third row, Yoho Lake, Sol Oriens, Seiun Hades. I wonder how much they'd bring me back if I win?

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Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. It's a total failure.

I guessed the pace wrong. It turned out to be much slower than I'd expected therefore, the race became an instantaneous speed contest between the horses that went up front. The odds were against Seiun Hades in that sense especially, with Makoto Velikij poking time and again. Will have to compliment the rider Kitamura, though since he brought the horse in third place.

Cervinia and Sol Oriens should be ashamed even regarding that this wasn't a race they aimed for. Stupid Cow told me Cervinia has accepted the invitation from Dubai Sheema Classic just before the start of the race. Why didn't he tell me earlier? If that's the case, I wouldn't have keyed her in the first place.

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Caterpillar

2:33 p.m. Starting early today, reviewing Kyoto Kinen before work.

My goal for next year is to learn to avoid G1 class horses that aren't aiming to win Kyoto Kinen. Or perhaps they were aiming to win, but those that didn't perform well in Kyoto Kinen, such as Sol Orience and Cervinia.

Having Japan Cup as a step for Kyoto Kinen is rather rare in the first place, and there are only three horses that finished above thir place in the past 10 years, Sanrei Pocket, Curren Bouquetd'or, and Rey de Oro. Curren Bouquetd'or seems to be the closest I can find to Cervinia's case so I compared the two to learn that when Japan Cup and Kyoto Kinen have a similar pace and track condition, the horse needs to be performing well in Japan Cup too.

Cervinia and Sol Oriens both hadn't performed well in Japan Cup, therefore it could be said that they didn't meet the conditions required in the similarly slow-lapped Kyoto Kinen. Hmm, interesting.

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Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. Moving on to February Stakes, the first G1 of this season.

Because February Stakes is a short range dirt G1 with its unique character of having a turf spur track at the beginning, the race often tends to be run at a tight pace. There were times when the pace settled at average, though that seems to be a rare case since it happened only twice in the past 10 years, in 2019 and 2022.

This feature seems to explain why horses shortening their distances from their previous races are doing well in February Stakes, as it ususally helps to boost the hoses' stamina as well as to prepair their minds for the high level a G1 race reqires. As a matter of fact, 18 horses out of the thirty that finishied above third place in the past 10 February Stakes were horses shortening distance.

Following the horses running longer distances are horses that run in Negishi Stakes, which count up to nine. Negishi Stakes is not a bad step for February Stakes in the sene that the character and flow of the race is closer to February Stakes compared to other longer races. Though that is also the reason why horse needs to perform well in the step race in order to perform well in February Stakes, just like we've senn in Kyoto Kinen and AJCC. For your information, horses from Negishi Stakes that also performed well in February Stakes, had all either won or finished second in Negishi Stakes, at least in the past 10 years.

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Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Looking into horses running Champions' Cup before performing highly in February Stakes.

Basically, it's the horses that have lost in Champions' Cup which are perfoming well in February Stakes. I think it's because of the difference in pace, since most of them have lost in either average or slow-paced Champions' Cup, and then came back above third place in February Stakes. These are the horses that originally perform better in tight-lapped races.

The few exceptions are Gold Dream and Nonkono Yume. These two have performed well in both Champions' Cup and February Stakes. Gold Dream was the defending champion in 2018, which means he'd already proven he had high aptitude for winning February Stakes. Champions' Cup was his previous race before February Stakes two years in a row, so it could be thought that Champions' Cup was a good prep race for Gold Dream.

As for Nonko, he finished second in both Champions' Cup and February Stakes while he was in his prime. The possible reason that he couldn't win in both races is the damage he had pled up before Champions' Cup.

Summing it up, horses that have performed well previously in Champions' Cup aren't likely to perform well in February Stakes unless they are February Stakes repeaters or in their prime. Additionally, when Champions' Cup is run at a tight-ish pace, there's a chance for the winner (and runner-up) to also perform well in February Stakes.

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Caterpillar

8:15 p.m. The entry has been closed for the first G1 of 2025 and there will be 16 horses running in February Stakes this year. Though I say this every time, it's good to have a full-field race.

Among the 16 are three horses coming from Champions' Cup and two from Negishi Stakes. When chosen based on the conditions of Champions' Cup introduced yesterday, Gaia Force and Peptide Nile remain, while Costa Nova will stay on my list from Negishi Stakes. Tagano Beauty is also from Negishi Stakes, but needs to be handled with care as a, he didn't run Negishi Stakes properly, and b, he's alaready 8 years old.

I see some horses from the newly revised Procyon Stakes, so will check it out to evaluate these horses tomorrow. And then, there are the horses coming from local grade races however, I'm afraid most of them don't stand a chance against the JRA top dirt horses. As for whether to call Emperor Wakea, Gaia Force, Derma Sotogake or Dura Erede top horses, I'd like to avoid making a comment.

Hopefully, I'll be provided with more information after the barrier draw announcement.

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Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. Okay, it's the first G1 of 2025! Here are the bariiers!

From the way the horses are lined up, the pace is unlikely to lag. With 12 of the 16 competitors shortening the distance from ther previous race, I'm guessing (or in other words, hoping) it would be tight-lapped just like it often is in February Stakes. Unfortunately, though I haven't been able to make time today to collect information, thanks to stupid Cow who forced extra work on me and chewed up my time, my precious time.

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Caterpillar

8:49 Time's up. I have to move on to my next task so I'm leaving my current conclusion here.

My trio with Peptide Nile keyed has Emperor Wakea, Meisho Hario, Dura Erede, Derma Sotogake, and Mikki Fight on its wheel. For quinellas, I'm keying either Emperor Wakea or Mikki Fight with Peptide Nile and Dura Erede.

To be honest, I am not sure which I should keep, Sunday Funday or Dura Erede. Perhaps they're both unnecessary. On a second thought, Meisho Hario also might be unnecessary. I was just scared he might be there in third place just like last year.

I'm still not sure how to handle Tagano Beauty, too. If the pace is going to be tight, maybe there is a chance for the horse to slide into third place? Nah. If so, he would have finished before Meisho Hario last year when he was a year younger than now.

Think I'll ponder some more anyway, while getting my tasks done.

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Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. The horse I bet on finished in first, third, fourth, fifth, sixth place, wow. Why didn't I have the ticket for Sunrise Zipangu?

So Derma Sotogake and Dura Erede were the unwanted horses. Dura erede, I kind of knew and replaced him with Costa Nova this moring. I'm not sure if Derma Sotogake will recover to perform like he did when he was three years old, not after seeing him lose this big.

It says in the notes I made Friday that Procyon Stakes is equivalent to Tokai Stakes. Why didn't I keep Sunrise Zipangu on my list? I should've known. Sunrise Zipangu and Mikki Fight are the second and third place winners of Japan Dirt Classic 2024. If I'm keeping Mikki Fight, Sunrise Zipangu should also go with it espacially, when Forever Young has beaten Romanti Warrior in Saudi Cup, congrats Ryusei, BTW.

And again, it's you, Hideaki Miyuki.

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Caterpillar

7:09 p.m. Reflecting on February Stakes.

The race was ran in a tight pace as I expected. But the horses I thought that might perform highly actually didn't, while Costa Nova and Sunrise Zipangu did. Why? The only reason I could think of is because of the race's disposition.

What I mean is that February Stakes was run in the similar furlong time as a 1400m or 1800m race. When a mile race runs in a tight lap, it tends to incline towards the flow of 1400m or 1800m races. This happens with turf races too. That's why horses running in 1400m races in their previous races stage huge payouts sometimes in NHK Mile Cup or Hanshin Juvenile Filllies, or Yasuda Kinen.

Since February Stakes often runs at a tight pace, it gives advantage to horses with high aptitude for 1400m or 1800m. Negishi Stakes, Chanpions' Cup, and Tokai Stakes have become the mainstream of step races for February Stakes as a result. If Procyon Stakes can play the role of Tokai Stakes, it's natural for Sunrise Zipangu to perform well in February Stakes, for the horse hasn't strainaed as much as to win Procyon Stakes, unlike Sunday Funday.

I think I got it. Will put it down on my notes for next year.

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. Well then, with the result and review of February Stakesin mind, which should I try this weekend Nakayama Kinen or Tulip-sho?

Tulip-sho looks attractive since it might be challenging and fun to test whether my thoughts regarding mile races are right or not. Onthe other hand, though there may be too many unceertainties about this race when it's limited to not just 3 year olds, but also female horses.

Nakayama Kinen perhaps, might be easier to guess since it's for older horses. However, it might not be as easy to win because the most favored hasn't either won or finished above third place for the last threee years.

Let me ponder my options.

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Caterpillar

8:46 p.m. Half dozing, trying hard to analyze Nakayama Kinen from the past results.

The most favored can't be trusted too much since they finished above third place only three times in the past ten years, none in the last three years. Front runners are advantaged related to thte course layout, with the leading horse finishing above third place five times in the past ten years. It's a repeater-freindly race as there's no 1800m G1 in Japan, 1800m specialists tend to enter Mainichi Ohkan in fall or Nakayama Kinen in spring.

Horses over eight years old haven't performed well at all while a slight chance is left for seven-year-olds. There wer three 7-year-olds in the past, two of them being repeaters. You might also note that these 7-year-olds performed well in relatively smaller field races, not full-field pushing and shoving. Perhaps older horses won't stand that kind of fierce battle. As a result, the 4-year-olds seem to play the main role in Nakayama Kinen.

Sorry, but this is the furthest I got to today.

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Caterpillar

8:11 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend races including Nakayama Kinen.

Just as I was saying the 4-year-olds play the main role in this race, the only 4-year-olds entered turns out to be Ecoro Walz and Sixpence. Suspicious, very suspicious indeed!

Of the thirteen 4-year-olds that finished above third place in Nakayama Kinen in the past 10 years, it was either the second race to run after the year has turned or the first after a G1 in thei previous year for twelve of them. Ecoro Walz and Sixpence don't seem to meet these conditions.

The only exception was Stephanos that didn't perform well in full-field races unless he started from outer posts. 2015 Nakayama Kinen was a small-field race on good to firm track.

Unfortunately, neither Ecoro Walz or Sixpence has performed well in a full-field race. Suspicious indeed, don't you think?

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Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. It's been relatively warm for the past few days and because thrifty Cow didn't turn on the heater today, I had to work in the coldness. Still hanging on but I don't think I could hold out much longer.

As I said earlier this week, Nakayama Kinen has been run with smaller fields of horses for the past ten years except for 2022 and 2024, when the pace got tight. 2022 and 2024 strangely are the only two years in the past ten when Nakayama Kinen was run with 16 horses. So I've been wondering whether the pace would become tight this year?

From the result of the barrier draw, I don't see many factors that might raise the pace. It's likely that the race would run at an averag pace, though if it drops to a slow, I not sure what kind of jostling party would be waiting on the homestretch for inner post drawers. To break away from that pushing and shoving pack, a horse should have either a safety lead ahead or a tough, steel mentality.

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Caterpillar