9:08 p.m. Another day of hard work. Tired, tired indeed.

The more I think, the more I feel like Soul Rush would easily beat all these underdogs despite his age. But then, it's the first time he's running a turf 1800m while it's also his first race this year, and he's charged with 59kg weight. Even though I do respect last year's Mile Championship champion, I couldn't put my full trust in Soul Rush.

I don't trust the two 4-year-olds either, and since the only 5-year-old Cruzeiro do Sul seems unreliable, drawing the outmost post in a full-field race at Nakayama, the best I could do would be to take y chances on the 6-year-olds.

Keying Matenro Sky on my trios. Among the mentioned five 6-year-old horses, Matenro Sky has already proven to have high aptitude for Nakayama Kinen becoming the winner in 2024. Although the situation might be different from then, with the track firm and the pace possibly much slower, my guess is that he could do well if not win. On the wheel would be Born This Way, Time to Heaven, Meisho Titan, Soul Rush, and Al Naseem.

My quinellas will be Matenro Sky and Al Naseem combined with Soul Rush.

The End

Caterpillar

7:00 p.m. I'm sorry for doubting your potential, Sixpence and Ecoro Walz. I appologize. I renewed my awareness never to go against Christophe again.

Still, the 5 and 6-year-olds were so disappointing, they should be ashamed of themselves while I'm being ashamed of myself.

Really, I'm not sure what to dowith myself flying so low when Takamatsuno Miya Kinen is waiting at the end of this month. Well, I'll cheer up with curry and rice.

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Caterpillar

7:02 p.m. Come to think of it, I got it wrong from the very first step where I tried to narrow down the candidates from the past ten years' results. We start doing stupid things when the losses pile up.

You see, I haven't been winning races lately as you know, and I thought I needed a change. The thing is, I didn't think much about what to change specifically. Deleting the horses that seem to have less chances from the past results I thought, was easier as well as time-saving. It looked as though it was a good idea if I could save time to use it later when I really need to concentrate. However, the result was disastrous as you already know.

Will get back to my usual process. Meanshile, will seek ways to save time. Surely, there must be better ways than to narrow down my options.

Now let me get down to my review of Nakayama Kinen.

The End

Caterpillar

7:54 p.m. There's only one grade race on Sunday this week, Yayoi-sho. The race also crowns the name of that great Deep Impact from when I forgot, though I've been refusing to add the horse's name. The race has always been Yayoi-sho to me and it always will, period.

In recent years, Yayoi-sho that once was the main step race for Satsuki-sho has sadly lost its glitter to be held with small fields, and as a result I've been losing interest in it. However, 14 horses seem to be entered this year. Perhaps I could try this year.

Since I did a disastrous blunder trying to save time last week, I will get back to my usual process. No big deal. It's what I always do when I get stuck or lost, get back to box one and start all over again.

The End

Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. So, Yayoi-sho.

It's a step race for Satsuki-sho limited to 3-year-olds and because it's been run with small number of horses lately, the race tends to be run at either average or slow pace. I can't guess what the pace is going to be like this year, at least not at this point yet. But on the premise that it won't be run at a tight pace, the profile of my candidates would be as follows: that the horse has performed highly in its previous race preferrably, at an average or tight pace, in either the same or shorter distance compared to Yayoi-sho, and has enough speed to go up front. In addition, it would be even better if the horse meeting these conditions have already performed well on Nakayama turf 2000m.

Might need to be careful on horses coming back from a break after running in Hopeful Stakes, since if a horse peforms well in Hopeful Stakes, that could be a double-edged sword concerning Yayoi-sho. While the horse has proved its high aptitude for Nakayama turf 2000m, the damage could backfire on the same course.

On the other hand, running a G1 previously could also boost the horse's performance. Seeking the balance between left-over damage and the horse's potential would be the difficult part.

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Caterpillar

8:37 p.m. Checking out the horses entered in Yayoi-sho especially, the ones that ran in a G1 race previously. There are four of them in all.

On the premise that the pace won't be tight, basically I should choose horses that finished first or second. That means Museum Mile can't be left out, no matter how favored he might be. Aw, that's daunting when Miyuki is riding. The horse has been performing better in small-field races, so I'm guessing it would be better to draw a middle to slightly outward post. He might prefer a soft track as well since he probably has power.

The remainig three I'm afraid, all depend on conditions. Faust Rasen has swept up from the outside in Hopeful Stakes. If he could do the same race again, he probaly deserves attraction however, there's the risk of left-over damage from his high performance in Hopeful Stakes.

Claudiai's instantaneous speed is fascinating, but he also seems to dislike locked in the field. In addition, it seems harder for him to go up front.

Ask Stein may be more interesting in that sense if he could make a good start to take the lead. If the track gets soft, it would advantage him even more.

My current evaluation for the G1 group would be Museum Mile, Ask Stein, Faust Rasen, then Claudiai.

The End

Caterpillar

7:56 p.m. The result of Yayoi-sho's barrier draw has been released.

If Ask Stein runs away to take the lead, I assume the pace would be either average or slow as expected. That means outer post drawers would be disadvantaged, because they will have to bear the brunt of course loss. Ask Stein will probably be taken over in case he drops his lead to a slow lap.

Museum Mile has drawn an almost ideal post. Whether he'd perform well or not is now up to Miyuki, his rider as well as the track condition.

Coincidentally, rain is expected in Nakayama from late tomorow afternoon, possibly turning into snow at night. It's forecasted to stop early Sunday morning, but the question is how much the percipitation would be and how well it would dry by the time of Yayoi-sho.

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Caterpillar

8:02 p.m. Despite Yayoi-sho being a trial race limited to 3-year-olds, which I'm not good at calling, I worked hard to reach conclusion earlier than usual this week.

I hate to have to say this because I seem to have bad chemistry with Hideaki Miyuki, but I'm afraid Museum Mile is the only option I could think of to key on my wheel. I'd bet big money on his win and show if I had more guts.

Who knows? Maybe Miyuki and I will be more compaitble taking this opportunity.

On the wheel would be Naglfar, Vincentio, Faust Rasen, and Ask Stein. In my wishful thinking, Naglfar is barely hanging on in third place while Vincentio is sinking low, so I'm also buying quinellas. Quinellas of Museum Mile and Faust Rasen.

Wait. I ought to be realistic reflecting on last week. Will add another quinella, Museum Mile and Vincentio just in case.

The End

Caterpillar

6:50 p.m. The track didn't dry as much as I thought it would. When I checked the condiition this morning, JRA had announced it as "good to firm", though it seemed to be consuming more stamina than "good to firm" judging from the race results.

If so, Vincentio would be more advantagd than Museum Mile, I thought. I also realized that the quinellas I was going to buy yesterday wasn't going to hedge my risks if I keyed Museum Mile on them. So I changed it from Museum Mile to Vincentio. Additionally, I replaced Ask Stein with Alohi Alii because front runners weren't doing very well in the past Yayoi-shos when it came to soft track condition.

I judged right this time and it resulted in a quinella win. Should have keyed Faust Rasen instead of Museum Mile on my trio, though, come to think of it.

And this is how my relationship with Miyuki goes on; a bad chemistry.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. Reviewed the race movie of Yayoi-sho and dropped a sigh of relief. Vincentio almost got beaten by Alohi Alii. The gap btween them were merely a neck or a head. Phew.

The way Faust Rasen could sweep up to the top of the field is threatening concerning that Satsuki-sho will be held on the same course and distance, though I'm afraid he won't be able to win since he would have to bear the damage from Yayoi-sho. Alohi Alii might be more interesting in that sense. It would be better for him to have Satsuki-sho at a tight lap while starting from an outer post, I reckon.

As for Museum Mile, he seemed to have run out of stamina (or motivation) on the homestretch. It was my blunder to let it slip that his best performance in Asahi-hai was at Kyoto, not the usual Hanshin, to overestimate the horse. His features, as far as I've grasped, suggest he would do better on wide courses with longer stretches, but he needs to have the stamina advantage that he benefits from shortening the distance. Therefore, I will ditch him for Satsuki-sho. D'erby? Um, maybe. Rather have a hunch he will be back in Yasuda Kinen a few years on if he survived until then.

The End

Caterpillar

7:28 p.m. We're having two grade races this Sunday, Spring Stakes, another Satsuki-sho trial and Kinko-sho for older horses.

I'm undecided which race to call as both of them seem to be small-field races possibly, on good to firm or softer track condition. Perhaps Spring Stakes would have a bigger payout, though I'm not sure about that. I guess I'll keep a close watch on both races for now.

It will be the opening week for Chukyo Race Course after a break when JRA held this year's first Chukyo races in January. However, the turf doesn't seem to have recovered completely especially near the 3rd and last corner, and it seems to me that it's going to be a power-consuming track with some precipitation, which is expected in the later half of this week.

Nakayama's turf seems much less damaged, though we're also in for some spring rain this week as well. So it might turn out to be another tough race for 3-year-old hores, just like Yayoi-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. After I went out to get some things I needed, the rain that was supposed to be slight turned heavier. My sneakers got pretty wet by the time I got home. The precipitation definitely must have been more than 1mm per hour, as the forecast predicted in the morning.

Additionally, there's some more rain expected from Saturday to Sunday. Spring Stakes is likely to become a tough race.

In a race that's bound to consume stamina, the important thing for the horse is not to have left-over damage since in case when a horse is too tired, it won't stand a chance on a tough track. Horses shortening the distance from their previous races are advantaged in the sense that it boosts their stamina however, they need caution as they are most likely to drop their positions in the coming race, which could be critical on soft Nakayama turf.

Horses extending the distance from their previous race will find it easier to take a good position up front, but will not have that stamina boost. On the other hand, they probably wouldn't have had to spend too much stamina in their previous race if it was shorter than a mile. That would be an advantage. Still, they would surely need racing careers that backs up that they have enough stamina to perform well in a Spring Stakes.

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Caterpillar

8:16 p.m. Another day of hard work while the entries for the weekend races have been closed. Had to struggle with online meeting apps which took up a lot of time and energy so I'm pretty tired.

Spring Stakes has been closed with eventually 12 horses, while only 10 horses are running in Kinko-sho. How disappointing!

The point of Spring Stakes I guess, would be whether King Squall would perform well or not. The horse has been gathering attraction from his previous race, which was actually his maiden race, where he took the lead to abandon the rest and won by 3 lengths, renewing a 2-year-olds' record for Sapporo turf 1800m.

The runner-up in this race was Teleos La La later finished third in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, so it's understandable that King Squall rose his reputation. But then, it's going to be his first race after a fraction break.

As for Kinko-sho, Chukyo didn't have much rain this week unlike Nakayama and it's going to be a small-field race. Oops! Looks like the forecast has changed and they're predicting rain on Sunday. Will have to refresh my ideas to reconsider.

The End

Caterpillar

8:23 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and announced.

It's quite hard to guess the pace for Spring Stakes since it's for 3-year-olds, but I have a feeling it won't be slow like last year. The reason is because there are several horses that might want to go up front. Considering the possibly soft track, he riders might not want to stay behind and that eventually might even lead to a tight lap. I'm setting the pace either tight or average.

However, these two different situations would bring two completely different results. Spring Stakes will be difficult to win betting tickets.

Will see if Kinko-sho could give me a better chance. I need to make up my mind.

Meanwhile, news have been delivered about the horses epected to enter Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen, along with the names of riders. Getting antsy here.

The End

Caterpillar

9:01 p.m. I decided to buy betting tickets for Kinko-sho. I think it relatively has less uncertainties compared to Spring Stakes.

Because Chukyo wll also be met with rain tomorrow just like Nakayama, I assume the track condition would be good to firm. The pace probably won't be that tight considering the course layout, so I've set it as average or slow. These conditions summed up, inner post drawers, front runners, horses that performed well in their previous races, and horses having long-lasting speed would have the advantage.

Therefore, I'm keying Desierto on my trio wheel of Ask Doux Porte, Ho O Biscuits, Queen's Walk, and Meiner Mond. As for the quinellas, I'll key Queen's Walk with Desierto and Ho O Biscuits.

Come to think of it, though I should buy trifectas for such a small-field race that probaly won't pay out that much. Guess I will consider that until tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. The track condition turned out to be soft at both Chukyo and Nakayama.

I assumed Yutaka won't lead the field in such a tight lap however, Desierto insisted to go faster. As a result, he ran out of stamina in the end to allow King's Palace to take him over. But thanks to the risk hedge, it saved me from another loss.

As a matter of fact, I compared the odds before the race and chose bracket quinella instead of quinella since the odds were slightly higher. It was good that I was cool enough to make the right decision.

The payout wasn't big and neither was my profit, though I believe the important thing is to keep my loss as small as possible. Well done, me.

The End

Caterpillar

7:46 p.m. Looking back on Spring Stakes, regarding Satsuki-sho.

Nakayama turf was announced to be soft just like Chukyo, and indeed I saw some clumps of turf kicked up during the race. The pace wasn't as tight as it seemed to be according to the stats, so the level of the race I should say, wasn't very high. If I compared the level with Yayoi-sho, I might even say Yayoi-sho was more high-level.

My take is that Piko Chan Black won for a reason, on the soft track in a monotonous distance indivisible by two furlongs, at an average pace with a Hopeful-Stakes-G1 boost. Perhaps the course has also played a good role.

Piko Chan Black had too many factors working favorably in Spring Stakes that I don't feel like trusting him for Satsuki-sho. He will have to pay the price for these advantages and it could be in Satsuki-sho.

Contrarily, it could have been a good step race for Fukuno Blue Lake. If Faust Rasen could win Yayoi-sho sweeping up the outside like that, Fukuno Blue Lake might also have a chance. He's the great-grand son of my beloved Admire Cozzene, too.

King Squall did well for his first race after a fraction break. It wasn't a bad race but maybe he won't be ready for Satsuki-sho. The horse has high potential and good for investing say, for Kikka-sho?

The End

Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. I'm lookng at the entry form of Hanshin Daishoten with 11 horses entered and the renewed Aichi-hai with 21 horses entered, both held on Sunday. Don't ask me which seems more interesting.

But then, I've made up my mind to choose the race that seemingly has less uncertainties in order to win it. There's actually no choice if I follow that rule. Still, even a fool can guess it won't pay back much even if I win, though.

Okay. I'll compromise to start working on Hanshin Daishoten. If I have time and energy left, could also try Aichi-hai.

The End

Caterpillar

8:03 p.m. Checking out the trend of Hanshin Daishoten. The renewal of Hanshin Race Course mainly took place outside the track, so I think I could refer to the past results for analysis.

Because it's a 3000m marathon race, Hanshin Daihoten usually tends to run at average or slow pace, resulting in an instantaneous speed contest. However, you might already guess that the instantaneous speed I'm talking about here is not the kind of sharpness Deep Impact descendants perform at a slow pace. The course is Hanshin not Kyoto or Tokyo, which means that high performers are expected of consistent acceleration and power as there's a steep uphill before the goal.

The requirement of long-lasting speed and power gives advantage to front runners, as well as inner post starters when the race is run with a small field. If there's a horse that have performed well sweeping up the outside before, that horse might need attention even when starting from an outer post, but apart from such horses trailers starting from outer posts generally will be diadvantaged unless the pace gets tight.

The most favored in win odds have been achieving good results, mostly bringing along two from the top five or six favored horses. It could be close to last week's Kinko-sho in that sense.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Turns out all 11 entrees will run Hanshin Daishoten meaning, that it will be a small-field race as expected.

Shonan la Punta currently seems to be the odds-on favorite. I can understand that since he's 4 years old performing well since last fall, finishing third in Kobe Shinbun-hai, fourth in Kikka-sho, and second in Nikkei Shinshun-hai, which was his previous race. Though he was 3 lenghts behind Lord del Rey while he had the G1 boost from Kikka-sho in his last race. Also, la Punta hasn't taken his position up front since last spring. I'm pretty doubtful.

Although Hanshin was met with rain last week like all the other race courses, the turf still seems to be in good condition. The week before last when the condition was firm, Osaka-jo Stakes, listed class 1800m was run in 1 minute 44.6 seconds. If the turf isn't so damaged, it could still be judged as a fast track.

Shonan la Punta is looking more fishy.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Working away the hours as usual, even when my client "forgot the existence" of her part.

Have finished typing in the data for Hanshin Daishoten including the result of the barrier draw announced today. The more I look at the racing form, more sighs drop. I hate to have to call this a G2 race with seven of the eleven competitors from lower classes. They haven't reached open class yet. Perhaps you should also know that Shonan la Punta has merely won a 1-win class.

With the only G1 winner being Blow the Horn, who not only haven't won a race last fall after winning Takaraduka Kinen, but also beaten with huge gaps in all of the last three races, a gap over one second, average. Carrying 59kg, he doesn't look very hopeful to my eyes. At least not unless a miracle happens to drastically improve the horse's condition.

Well, I still have another day. I'll feel out for Hanshin's turf condition tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. My motivation for Hanshin Daishoten has drooped after I realized that the competitors entering this race were pretty disappointing. Nevertheless, a race is a race. where there's a grade race, I can't help but call it. Since I didn't have time to look into Aichi-hai, Hanshin Daishoten would be my only choice whether I like it or not.

Cutting straight to the point. Am keying Sunrise Earth for my trio, because he's likely to go up front. My only worry however, would be the rider. On the wheel would be Shona La Punta, Veloce Era, Copano Santos, and Warp Speed. As for the insurance quinellas, I'm going to key Veloce Era with Sunrise Earth and Copano Santos.

My take is that Shonan la Punta will finish third at best.

The End

Caterpillar

7:02 p.m. Aw man, Blow the Horn! You got me! I should have know Blow the Horn was good at Hanshin from his Takaraduka Kinen performance. It just didn't hit me he could make a come back after seeing the past three races. Okay, the horse is a stayer, I'll carve that in my mind.

In terms of outlook for Teno-sho spring though, I probably won't key Blow the Horn since today's performance can backfire. The frustrating thing is that I would still have to keep him on the wheel in case a similar situation to last year's Tenno-sho spring is expected.

As for Sunrise Earth, today's overwhelming win might not directly result in a high performance in Tenno-sho. The horse has got stamina so I'm not worried about the one furlong sdistance extension, and as you can see from today's performance, he's got that second boost which can be a threat to other horses. However, Sunrise Earth has already run three races this spring while two of them were long-distance races. I'm not sure if he could recover from his damage.

The End

Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. Haven't finished reviewing Hanshin Daihoten yet, but my head is already dominated by Takamatsuno Miya Kinen, coming up this weekend. I did a terrible blunder leaving out Mad Cool last year. Yeah, that was terrible.

It doesn't look like the pace is going to be that tight at this point, so there's a chance it's going to be like last year. But the track might not be as soft as last year since the forecast is predicting some rain around Chukyo only on Thursday and Friday, not Saturday or Sunday.

Meanwhile, Nikkei-sho will be held on Saturday Nakayama. Urban Chic is starting his season from Nikkei-sho probably aiming for Tenno-sho spring. Things are getting exciting.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Looking back on last year's Takamatsuno-miya Kinen. It ran at an unexpectedly leisurely pace. Japanese sprint G1s rarely runs slower than average. Why did the pace lag then, in the first place? There were front runners like T M Spada, Mozu Meimei, and Win Carnelian so the pace could have been much faster. But it didn't turn out that way, why?

I don't blame Mozu Mei Mei and Win Carnelian as they were shortening the distance from 7 furlongs and a mile race, respectively. Horses tend to drop their positions when they shorten the distance, so it's natural for the formentioned two horses not being able to take the lead. What happened to T M Spada? If she didn't take the lead, who woulld?

Vicor the Winner (from Hong Kong)! No wonder. T M Spada was apparently over her prime, and it looks like she had a bad start as well. I'll check out the video tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. What is a nuissance about Takamatsuno-miya Kinen is that I have to keep Namura Clair to be on the safe side. I don't like that. No, I don't like it at all because Namura will be favored, thanks to her ahievements and Christophe.

I guess Namura's performance depends on the pace, though. Last year, Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen was run on soft track so the experience of her previous race worked resultingly, as supplement for stamina. There will be a chance that Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen will be run at a moderately leisurely pace again like last year, but the track condition is unlikely to get soft as far as the forecast tells. If the pace is not tight on a firm track, high performers in the same distance will have more advantage than horses shortening the distance, so I'm secretly hoping for the pace to drop.

But then, it's Namura Clair, Takamatsuno-miya Kinen ruunner-up two-years-in-a-row with Christophe on her back this year, not Hamanaka. You can't easily delete her without much thinking. That's why she's such a nuissance.

The End

Caterpillar

7:25 p.m. The entry for Takamatsu-no Miya Kiinen has been closed and it's going to be a full-field race. The time has come regardless of my umprepared state. I've been pretty occupied at work I haven't done my preparations yet despite my excitement from the beginning of the week.

Along with this year's entry form, the gains and losses after workouts in each competitors' weight have also been announced from JRA. According to the release, Namura Clair seems to have gained 18kg.

It's natural for her to gain weight as Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen will be her first race this year, following a 3-months' break after winning Hanshin Cup in December. However, a gain of 18kg cannot be ignored. It's better than losing the same amount of weight, though I'll have to doubt her condition that she might have left-over damage from Hanshin Cup.

Of course there are other horses that have also increased their body weight significantly such as Travesura, Balsam Note, Big Caesar, Pair Pollux, or Mozu Mei Mei, but the biggest weight gain was Pair Pollux's 16kg, which is still less than Namura Clair's. While Pair Pollux is 4 year old and now grwoing, Namura Clair is already 6 yeaars old. Most fans would suspect she is transforming into a mother. Or is she expecting?

The End

Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. All rightie, the barries have been announced!

It doesn't look like the pace is going to drop like last year, at least not to my eyes. Supposing Pair Pollux takes the lead, the pace might even get tight depending on how the other front runners would move. But well, I don't see any horse that might become a rival for Pair Pollux to cease his lead, so my take is that the pace would be average.

If the race unfolds as I assumed, I have a feeling that horses taking their positions on the second, third or fourth row from the top would have more advantage than horses staying behind. Pair Pollux would be targeted and taken over in that case, just like he'd been in Ocean Stakes.

The End

Caterpillar

8:56 p.m. I'm still in the middle of calling Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen, but I'm getting sleepy, cold and it's getting late so I'll post my current conclusion here.

Basically, there will not be major changes in power relationships from my perspective, so I'm keying Satono Reve on a wheel of Mad Cool, Kangchenjunga, Toshin Macau, Namura Clair and Mama Cocha, for avrage pace setting.

I'm thinking of preparing a tight lap version however, I may be quite dfficult with the track condition unexpectedly soft today. You can never be sure whether the turf would dry by tomorrow. It's also hard to guess if there are any track biases appearing on the course, or how damaged the course is, resulting into a situation where I cannot choose horses with confident.

Guess I'll just have to put my hopes on tomorrow's race results to gather more information. Luckily (or not), we have one sprint race at Chukyo tomorrow, although the results might not be so helpful because it's a maiden race for 3-year-olds.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Oh, come on T. Yokoyama! Pleeeeease!!!

JRA announced today's Chukyo turf condition as firm. A slight doubt rose inside me that perhaps front runners starting from outer posts might have to bear the distance loss being swung around the outside, so I deleted Mama Cocha from my trio wheel on which I keyed Toshin Macau, while I keyed Satono Reve for my quinellas of Toshin Macau and Namura Clair.

I think this is the first time I ever won Takamatsun-no Miya Kinen but then, why is it that I feel so regretful?

The End

Caterpillar

8:28 p.m. Now that I look at Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen from an objective point of view in my review, I realize how stupid I was to replace Mama Cocha with Lugal. The more reason I find that it had to be Mama Cocha, the more regretful I become.

I wish I could have been happy with open arms.

Unfortunately, the race is already past so I'll have to look into the future. Osaka-hai is coming up this week. It looks like there are enough horses entered to make it a full-field race this year, while the top jockeys mostly gone (to Dubai). That means Stellenbosch is definitely going to be the most favored, I know, everyone knows.

The End

Caterpillar