8:38 p.m. The summer races ended while I rolled on the floor with regretment and the autumn races are already starting from this week.

Shion Stakes looks interesting in the sense that none of the entrees seem to have shown high aptitude for a tight-cornered course like Nakayama, but I'm going for Centaur Stakes at Hanshin.

Centaur Stakes has been held at both Hanshin and Chukyo for the past several years so it may be hard to grasp the trends of high performers. It will be on Hanshin turf this year. As a matter of fact, all I could come up with at this point is that Hanshin is a front-runner-friendly course, and that it's going to be a fast track as it's the opening week.

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8:31 p.m. Because this year's Centaur Stakesis going to be on the opening week of Hanshin, it's not hard to imagine that the front runners will have the advantage. Also, the winning time is likely to be pretty fast, while the speed to cover the last three furlongs probably won't drop if the turf is dry and the track condition is firm.

Just checked the forecast for Hanshin Racing Course which revealed that there's a chance of rain on Thursday afteroon, but sunny skies will come back for the weekend bringing along the enormous heat again.

The enormous heat is certainly not welcomed, though if the forecast turns out to be true, horses that will have the advantage to perform well in Centaur Stakes would need high achievements on fast tracks, not to mention the speed to take good position up front.

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7:22 p.m. The weekly forecasts are as unreliable as my betting tickets. They say that a baby typhoon is brewing on the Pacific coast possibly resulting in heavy rain from Thursday to Friday. It was only yesterday when they said there was "a chance of rain", you know?

So, the precipitation which was to be expected in Hanshin is going to be quite much. Therefore, Hanshin tracks is assumed to be slightly soft on Sunday, even if Saturday and Sunday went without rain.

Standing on this assumption, Centaur Stakes can be a monotonous race. This means that powerful and fast front runners will be benefitted even more.

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8:45 p.m. The entry has been closed and it looks like we're having another full-field race. Centaur Stakes this year will run with 16 horses, thankfully. Still, you never know until those barriers open sice some horse might shake off the rider and bolt off like last week's Queen's Walk.

The most favored in expected win odds as of today is Toshin Macau as expected. Expected, because he's the defending champion however, caution is required when handling this horse as last year's Centaur Stakes, the race that he won was at Chukyo, not Hanshin. Additionally, he didn't win in Keioh-hai Spring Cup last year, nor did he carry 58 kg.

Things change you see, as well as horses. There are many cases when they look like totally different horses only after a year. Look at Brede Weg, for example.

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8:41 p.m. It rained most of the day in Tokyo, thanks to the typhoon. Things don't seem much different around Hanshin and JRA says there's been 37mm precipitation today, following 9mm on Thursday. Thus the turf condition of Hanshin is announced to be "goof to firm" as of 10 this morning. From the stats, though, I think it was more closer to soft. Nevertheless, it will dry off by Centaur Stakes as they're having a full day of sunshine and heat tomorrow.

Meanwhile the result of the barrier raw has been announced. T M Spada might not be all that welcome for drawing an inner post as well as Shonan Xanadu. Mama Cocha on the other hand, doesn't mind starting from inner posts however, I wonder if the sortening of distance from Keioh-hai turns out to be a plus or minus?

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9:26 p.m. Today's Kesei-hai Autumn Handicap turned out to be a surprising finish, with the female 7-year-old Ho O Las Cases winning towing female 6-year-old Drop of Light behind. The trifecta payout amounted to 934,100 yen with the 13th, 11th and 2nd favored horses dominating the podium. The most favored Erika Express sank in 11th place.

My call for Centaur Stakes tomorrow is bumping into a wall again as there are many things left that are hard to guess. Right now I'm down to six horses, T M Spada, Mama Cocha, Ecoro Sieg, Kangchenjunga, Culture Day and Toshin Macau, though I'm not sure which horse to key. Perhaps I should key Mama Cocha without twisting things too much?

The finishing record for today's races at Hanshin was pretty fast despite the moist turf and I'm assuming that horses without fast record won't stand a chance tomorrow when the turf dries. It might also become hard for trailers to take over from the outside even when the pace gets tight if the track condition turns out to be super-fast.

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7:34 p.m. Just as I said yesterday, I should've keyed Mama Cocha without twisting things too much instead of keying Ecoro Sieg who hasn't achieved a thing in grade races. I thought lifetime freshness would win against a half-cooked G1 horse running a step race especially in a sprint race, but I proved wrong.

Because the turf was unexpectedly moist according to the JRA announcement, I even added Shonan Xanadu on my wheel. If I'd openly trusted Mama Cocha and keyed her on my trio, I would have called the first place winner to the fifth right. I'd have completed a quintet!

Ecoro Sieg miserably lost in the last place way behind Mozu MeiMei by 7 lengths. 7 Lengths! Something must have happened for losing that big?

The rider's comment after the race just says,"I was able to make a good start and ride smoothly during the race. The horse has a future." No accident whatsoever? Oh, no.

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Caterpillar

7:30 p.m. The trial races for the autumn G1s are coming in a rush. This week we're having Rose Stakes (Shuka-sho trial) as well as Centlight Kinen (Kikka-sho trial) on Monday as Monday is a holiday.

When the news first came in about Cerbiatto was aiming for Shuka-sho, I wasn't sure what to make of it. Now that I know Christophe is going to ride, I can't help but smile because I know she'd be favored but isn't going to win Rose Stakes.

Personally, I don't think Cerbiatto's profile will fit the requirements for Hanshin turf 1800m. Plus, she's a Lord Kanaloa descendant that performs better in faster, tougher races. Cerbiatto has just proven that in NHK Mile Cup. As she's already performed highly in her previous race, Cerbiatto also has the risk of damage backfiring.

With so many risks, I consider not to key Cerbiatto.

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9:27 p.m. At the end of the day after having worked with a young client, I was met with the news that Haru Urara has passed away.

In the news article, I learned that there's been tourists fom all over the world visiting her at the farm where she was kept these days, thanks to the new versions of Uma Musume released in other languages besides Japanese.

I wasn't a great fan of her, though in the sense that she moved the hearts of so many fans, Haru Urara wasn't much different from horses like Oguri Cap or Tokai Teio. The number of wins in their career is not the only thing that defines a great horse.

You've done a good job in fascinating as well as encouraging many people. Rest in peace, Haru Urara.

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Caterpillar

7:52 p.m. Let's get back to Rose Stakes before I launch on my preparation for tomorrow's meeting.

Just like Centaur Stakes, Rose Stakes also has been affected by the renewals of Kyoto and Hanshin that it's been held at Chukyo as a 2000m race in years 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024. So I need to remind myself that it's a race that always finished with a fast record, which is not so hard to imagine reflecting on last week's Centaur Stakes.

From 2015 to 2019 when this race was held at Hanshin, the finishing time all fits in between 1 minute 44.4 seconds and 1 minute 45.7 seconds as long as the track condition is firm. In 2016, Rose Stakes was run on soft track but the winner finished in 1 minute 46.7 seconds, despite the power-consuming condition.

As you can see, it's going to be another super-fast track week.

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9:05 p.m. Entries have been closed for the weekend and Rose Stakes this year is running with 18 horses, great! Horrifyingly, there was a time when only 12 horses ran in this Shuka-sho trial, so it's good to have a full-field race. At this point, all the horses running in this race have a chance to win the last crown.

Across the ocean, Byzantine Dream seems to have won Qatar Prix Foy 2025 while rain was pouring over Tokyo. I've read in an article yesterday that Japanese horses might have a better chance of winning Prix de l'Arc this year. Will have to wait and see about that.

Hanshin also seem to have been experiencing some rain on and off through the week. The forecast says it will be sunny on Sunday, so I'm assuming the track condition to be close to that of last week.

The expected win odds of Cerbiatto has dropped out from the top 3 behind my back. I'm not sure exactly how they're calculating these odds, but they must have heard me talking.

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8:27 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and announced. It looks like Mikki Madonna and Paradis Reine didn't have much luck as they drew inner posts although they seem to get easily discouraaged. Mikki Jewelry also might not be good when pressured, but if she could take the lead, perhaps there won't be much worries about getting into a push and shove with other horses.

I hate to have to admit it, though Kamunyak has drawn an ideal post. If I'm forced to point out her weakpoints, I'd say that she hasn't achieved any wins on clockwise courses, let alone Hanshin turf. The outstanding speed she'd shown in Oaks is still threatening.

Hanshin turf condition as of today seems slightly softer than last week. It shall dry a bit more by Sunday. The turf isn't as damaged as I'd feared so it may be said that we're having another week of fast track with the finishing record pretty fast.

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9:36 p.m. Having trouble staying awake as always.

Hanshin may have a slight rainshower tomorrow afternoon, but that seems to be the only threat of rain. The turf would go as firm. As expected, today's race results showed that the track condition was pretty fast, with the finishing record of a turf 1800m maiden race being 1 minute 45.4 seconds. It could possibly get into the 44 seconds range tomorrow depending on the pace.

Speaking of pace, I don't think it's going to be that tight. Say, average would be the most possible. That means horses that could position themselves up front will have the advantage, as well as horses running in the same distance or extending the distance form their previous race. High aptitude for fast, firm track is a must.

I'm currently struggling with 7 horses, Rouge Solitaire, Mikki Madonna, Paradis Reine, Mikki Jewelry, Tagano Abby, Kamunyak, and Conduire. I've boldly deleted Cerviatto.

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7:54 p.m. It turned out to be a succession of unexpected things.

First, Tagano Abby got excluded from the race. I was wondering which to key, Tagano Abby or Kamunyak, so perhaps I've been saved. No, that's not right. Come to think of it, I'd have had all my betting money back if I keyed Tagano Abby.

Second, the pace got tight. There's a long backstretch before entering the third corner so it's rare for the front runners to get into fierce position battles to raise the pace. As you know, I expected the pace to be average or even slow. Why else would I keep so many inner post drawers for?

Finally, there was the chain-reaction accident caused by Mikki Madonna and Sena Style. The jockies of these horses have both been punished with penalty. Kamunyak has won with enough gap to show her strength, though it would have been more pleasant if not for the interference.

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8:29 p.m. Sorry I skipped Centlight Kinen. I was afraid calling the race would eat up most of my precious off time. I doubt if I won even if I gave it a try.

Mr. Museum Mile has easily won Centlight Kinen, which didn't come as a surprise supported by the most favored win odds. It could also be said for yesterday's Rose Stakes, but the horses' level wasn't high eough for a G2 race in my opinion. As a result, the odds-on favorite horses winning in the spring classics earned the win without incident in both races.

Meanwhile, news has been delivered that Croix du Nord won the step race for Prix de l'Arc. The hopeful thing is that Croix won on the same course as l'Arc on soft condition. On the other hand, it's a bit worrying that there's only three weeks of interval before the big race. Having run on tough turf condition, I suppose it would be better to have more time to recover. Also, it would be better for the turf to be dry. That shall help Croix du Nord save his stamina until the last minute when he really needs it.

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8:22 p.m. Very disappointed to see the entry form of All Comer held this weekend. There are only 11 horses entered. How sad!

As a matter of fact, there were times when All Comer was held with a small field. There were actually four times in the past ten years, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020. The smallest was that of 2020, and the number of horses running this year was 9. Not to mention no G1 champions were included in the entrees.

11 horses sounds slightly better than 2020, but the only G1 winner is Regaleira who sank in 11th place in Takaraduka Kinen, her first race after a fraction break.

I understand challenges are important, that there will be no development, improvement, nor achievement if you don't challenge. Maybe, though you should try winning a domestic G2, then step up to win a domestic G1 before challenging l' Arc de Triomphe? Wha-da-ya-think, Byzantine Dream and Shin Emperor?

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8:34 p.m. As anyone can guess, Regaleira is the most favored in expected win odds of All Comer as of today. Well, she's the only G1 champion this year. It got me a bit worried when I saw the rider's slot empty yesterday, but it has Tozaki's name in it now.

From the lineup of horses entered and that it's going to be a small-field race, it's hard to think the pace is going to be tight. Meanwhile the track condition seems pretty firm and fast assuming from the results of Centlight Kinen. Staying behind would be critical in such condition.

Rain is expected for a couple of days starting tomorrow, so the conditions may change depending on the amount of precipitation. Sorry I'm saying the same things every week, though that's about the best I could say at this point.

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7:20 p.m. Rain is coming. They said it rained heavily in Mito this afternoon. We haven't hadit yet, but we're bound for some rain tonight. Heaven knows how much it would fall. Looks like it won't go away until Saturday.

I've checked out the forecast for Nakayama to see the situation is mostly the same as ours. This means that there may be a chance of the turf still moist while slightly power-consuming at the time of All Comer. In that case, horses that don't perform well when pressured will be benefitted, though that was already decided when the number of horses entered were limited to just 11. Let me say that such horses would have more advantage if the turf demands power.

Additonally, the distance is a non-mainstream 2200m, indivisible by 4. These are conditions a Kizuna descendant might do well especially when they are extending the distance from their previous race.

Have just checked the entry form to find two Kizuna descendants, Schwarze Kugel and Lybian Glass. The one which fits the requirements is Lybian Glass, for your information.

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8:34 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and announced.

Lybian Glass has drawn an inner post, which seems ideal to take the lead. If he could keep his rhythm to drop the race to a slow pace, perhaps he could perform well? Though that might also give Regaleira a chance to come back and win. Personally, I don't think she'd change drastically as to win, but you never know.

A temporal fence has been set and turf races at Nakayama will be run on Course C starting tomorrow. From the photos released, the turf condition looks quite good although it seems soft from the heavy rain last night. Yes, the forecast was right. They're saying that it will rain again tomorrow afternoon. Wonder what the turf condition will be like on Sunday?

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9:22 p.m. It's a small-field race though unexpectedly hard to call.

The reason is because the entrees are all unreliable while the turf condition is unstable. I'm assuming the turf would dry off by tomorrow afternoon, but not sure if it will become a fast track.

All I know is that the pace perobably won't be tight meaning, it will be difficult for horses that have lost big previously to recover unless they have good reasons for their loss. The horses currently remaining on my list are Cosmo Kuranda, Lybian Glass, Chrominance, Hohelied, Yoho Lake, and Douradores. Well, maybe not Yoho Lake.

I have a hunch that this setting (Nakayama turf 2200m) fits Cosmo Kuranda best, but it lacks a conclusive factor.

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8:04 p.m. Although the moisture of the turf hadn't changed much from yesterday, the ground was getting harder as the water dried up. So I put Regaleira back on my liset crossing out Chrominance instead.

Then, I debated if I should key Lybian Glass, Regaleira or Hohelied, eventually choosing Lybian Glass because he drew an ideal post, was sure to go up front. In other words, I was blinded by the odds.

I knew I picked the wrong horse when I saw Schwarze Kugelcoming up along Lybian Glass, but didn't think he would have lost in the last place way behind even Chrominance. Not sure whether to hope nothing's wrong with the horse or not.

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Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Aaaand the time has already come for the first G1 of this fall season, Sprinters' Stakes! Time flies, doesn't it?

As I pulled up the entry form on my screen, I realized many familiar names; Win Carnelian, Satono Reve, Toshin Macau, Namura Clair, Puro Magic, Mama Cocha, Lugal... I wonder how many of these horses were running last year? Seven. Just checked to find seven. They can be called &wuot;the regulars".

Unfortunately or not, Mad Cool couldn't make it because of an injury, but if I included Mad Cool, 8 horses are running again this year. Is this a recap or what?

Well, at least we have Lucky Sweinesse. Still, I don't think it's going to be an easy race for the challenger from Hong Kong. The fall Nakayama turf is Noshiba all the way and as you can see from All Comer's finishing record, it's fast, pretty fast. I'm afraid it will be tough for foreign horses to adjust to the speed. It's the Sprinters' Stakes, not Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen.

Hey, what happened to Panja Tower by the way?

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Caterpillar

8:29 p.m. Had a laugh about the name of potato chips. The name of the chips is "Jaga Pokkuru", and it's a local specialty of Hokkaido. However, stupid Cow has somehow learned it as "Potekkuru", though I have no idea where that came from. He keeps saying "Potekkuru" instead of "Jaga Pokkuru," while he insists they should change the name from "Potekkuru" to "Jaga Pokkuru". I'm sorry dude, but the product's name is already "Jaga Pokkuru" and it goes by that name throughout the nation.

Have been rolling over laughing for a while that I've run out of time to check out the past stats of Sprinters' Stakes, so here's just one thing I noticed. Sunday Silence line is not doing as well as I'd thought. Namura Clair has fought well for the past two years, though finishing third two years in a row was as far as she got. It's rather the Mr. Prospector line that seems to be performing better.

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9:07 p.m. Running late again, so just a bite from the past 10 years' trend.

Short distance races tend to finish with horses that have performed well in recent races, because they give less damage compared to longer distance races. Sprinters' Stakes is not an exception. Out of 30 horses that finished above third place in the past 10 years, only three had lost below fourth place in both of the recent two races before Sprinters' Stakes. Others were all finishing above second place in either of their closest two races. Incidentally, two horses of the forementioned three, had won three races before Sprinters' Steaks meaning, that the winning had left huge damage to the horses.

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7:19 p.m. Motivation has been lost since the meeting I've worked hard on was cancelled at the last minute. It's an exploitation of passion.

Another tip I learned from the past 10 years' trend. Inner post drawers have been hugely advantaged for the past 10 years.

Unless there is an obvious track bias that benefits outer post drawers, this is true for Nakayama turf 1200m and there is a big difference in the performances between horses that drew posts inner than number 10 and horses that drew posts outer than 11.

Among the 30 horses which finished above third place in the past 10 years, only five started from post numbers over 11. You might also note that four of these five outer post drawers were all front runners including Mikki Isle who took the lead in 2016. The only horse that didn't go up front was Red Falx, but then, he was a great horse winning this race two years in a row.

I guess it won't be easy to take over from the outside even when the pace got tight, not on a fast track like current Nakayama turf.

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Caterpillar

7:52 p.m. Okay, folks! Time for the first G1 of the fall season 2025! Here's the result of the barrier draw.

Hmmm... So the popular horses mostly drew inner posts. Toshin Macau would have to go up front as he's drawn an outer post. He needs to recover his lost weight even before that, though. Lugal wouldn't mind the outer post on the cotrary, as he would probably try to take a higher position.

What's interesting is that Win Carnelian has jumped up to the second favored in win odds.

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8:44 p.m. Getting sleepy again. Decided I should finish this fast before I drop down.

Today's Race 10 at Nakayama which ran the same distance and course as Sprinters' Stakes finished recording 1 min. 7.6 seconds, although it was a lower class race. I'm not sure what to make of that, though. It could be said that the fast track is still there since the winning record was pretty fast for this class. Yet, I could also guess that the track is shifting to a more power-consuming state having the last week of Nakayama. In fact, the inner part of the course is getting digged up according to the photos on JRA's official site.

Anyway, it looks like Nakayama would go withut rain tomorrow and there's a chance for Sprinters' Stakes to be run with a faster record. Keeping that in mind, I've currently come down to 7 horses. Here are their names: Yoshino Easter, Mama Cocha, Namura Clair, Satono Reve, Toshin Macau, June Blair, and Lugal. It needs a bit more refining, though.

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7:39 p.m. Win Carnelian! I mus t have been punished for deleting him just because he was already 8 years old, even though he brought me a place win to get out of my consecutive losses when he won Toyo Shinbun-hai in 2023.

June Blair fought well, but I wonder what all the other 4-year-olds were doing? And the 5-year-olds? They should be leading the older horses' races and June Blair was the only one that could get in a match against 8-year-old Win Carnelian? Shame on you!

As for the rider, I'd like to congratulate Kosei from the bottom of my heart. The guy didn't give up no matter what got in his way and he finally won his first JRA G1 after suffering for a looooong time. I hope there'd be more to follow! Congrats, Kosei! Great job, well done!

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8:08 p.m. Still feeling regretful about not including Win Carnelian. After insisting that front runners should be heavily weighed even if they're starting from outer posts.

Anyway, the autumn season has begun and we're having Prix de l'arc de Triomphe 2025 this weekend with Croix du Nord, Alohi Alii and Byzantine Dream running. But before that we have the annual step races Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Daishoten, both of which are known for their safe and sound payouts.

However, there's been a breakthrough in Kyoto Daishoten last year, recording a huge payout of over a million yen for a trifecta. It looks like it's going to be a big-field race this year, with the odds possibly splitting between Admire Terra, Sunrise Earth, Shonan la Punta, and Durezza. It seems more attractive than Mainichi Ohkan, so far.

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9:13 p.m. Don't have much time today, thanks to the changes concerning sign-in measures at a certain mail provider. I need to make some changes though things don't seem to be wroking right. The descriptions for the setting is so unfriendly as well as unhelpful, humph.

The forecast I glimpsed in the news around noon mentioned a chance of rain on Saturday. If it rains at Tokyo to soften the track, it could affect the results of Mainichi Ohkan. In that case, horses like Sirius Colt could benefit from the softened turf.

Have just taken a quick look at several different forecasts, but unfortunately none of them are predicting rain on Saturday. Who knows? Things could change. We'll wait and see. It's only Tuesday.

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Caterpillar