8:38 p.m. The summer races ended while I rolled on the floor with regretment and the autumn races are already starting from this week.

Shion Stakes looks interesting in the sense that none of the entrees seem to have shown high aptitude for a tight-cornered course like Nakayama, but I'm going for Centaur Stakes at Hanshin.

Centaur Stakes has been held at both Hanshin and Chukyo for the past several years so it may be hard to grasp the trends of high performers. It will be on Hanshin turf this year. As a matter of fact, all I could come up with at this point is that Hanshin is a front-runner-friendly course, and that it's going to be a fast track as it's the opening week.

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8:31 p.m. Because this year's Centaur Stakesis going to be on the opening week of Hanshin, it's not hard to imagine that the front runners will have the advantage. Also, the winning time is likely to be pretty fast, while the speed to cover the last three furlongs probably won't drop if the turf is dry and the track condition is firm.

Just checked the forecast for Hanshin Racing Course which revealed that there's a chance of rain on Thursday afteroon, but sunny skies will come back for the weekend bringing along the enormous heat again.

The enormous heat is certainly not welcomed, though if the forecast turns out to be true, horses that will have the advantage to perform well in Centaur Stakes would need high achievements on fast tracks, not to mention the speed to take good position up front.

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7:22 p.m. The weekly forecasts are as unreliable as my betting tickets. They say that a baby typhoon is brewing on the Pacific coast possibly resulting in heavy rain from Thursday to Friday. It was only yesterday when they said there was "a chance of rain", you know?

So, the precipitation which was to be expected in Hanshin is going to be quite much. Therefore, Hanshin tracks is assumed to be slightly soft on Sunday, even if Saturday and Sunday went without rain.

Standing on this assumption, Centaur Stakes can be a monotonous race. This means that powerful and fast front runners will be benefitted even more.

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8:45 p.m. The entry has been closed and it looks like we're having another full-field race. Centaur Stakes this year will run with 16 horses, thankfully. Still, you never know until those barriers open sice some horse might shake off the rider and bolt off like last week's Queen's Walk.

The most favored in expected win odds as of today is Toshin Macau as expected. Expected, because he's the defending champion however, caution is required when handling this horse as last year's Centaur Stakes, the race that he won was at Chukyo, not Hanshin. Additionally, he didn't win in Keioh-hai Spring Cup last year, nor did he carry 58 kg.

Things change you see, as well as horses. There are many cases when they look like totally different horses only after a year. Look at Brede Weg, for example.

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8:41 p.m. It rained most of the day in Tokyo, thanks to the typhoon. Things don't seem much different around Hanshin and JRA says there's been 37mm precipitation today, following 9mm on Thursday. Thus the turf condition of Hanshin is announced to be "goof to firm" as of 10 this morning. From the stats, though, I think it was more closer to soft. Nevertheless, it will dry off by Centaur Stakes as they're having a full day of sunshine and heat tomorrow.

Meanwhile the result of the barrier raw has been announced. T M Spada might not be all that welcome for drawing an inner post as well as Shonan Xanadu. Mama Cocha on the other hand, doesn't mind starting from inner posts however, I wonder if the sortening of distance from Keioh-hai turns out to be a plus or minus?

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9:26 p.m. Today's Kesei-hai Autumn Handicap turned out to be a surprising finish, with the female 7-year-old Ho O Las Cases winning towing female 6-year-old Drop of Light behind. The trifecta payout amounted to 934,100 yen with the 13th, 11th and 2nd favored horses dominating the podium. The most favored Erika Express sank in 11th place.

My call for Centaur Stakes tomorrow is bumping into a wall again as there are many things left that are hard to guess. Right now I'm down to six horses, T M Spada, Mama Cocha, Ecoro Sieg, Kangchenjunga, Culture Day and Toshin Macau, though I'm not sure which horse to key. Perhaps I should key Mama Cocha without twisting things too much?

The finishing record for today's races at Hanshin was pretty fast despite the moist turf and I'm assuming that horses without fast record won't stand a chance tomorrow when the turf dries. It might also become hard for trailers to take over from the outside even when the pace gets tight if the track condition turns out to be super-fast.

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7:34 p.m. Just as I said yesterday, I should've keyed Mama Cocha without twisting things too much instead of keying Ecoro Sieg who hasn't achieved a thing in grade races. I thought lifetime freshness would win against a half-cooked G1 horse running a step race especially in a sprint race, but I proved wrong.

Because the turf was unexpectedly moist according to the JRA announcement, I even added Shonan Xanadu on my wheel. If I'd openly trusted Mama Cocha and keyed her on my trio, I would have called the first place winner to the fifth right. I'd have completed a quintet!

Ecoro Sieg miserably lost in the last place way behind Mozu MeiMei by 7 lengths. 7 Lengths! Something must have happened for losing that big?

The rider's comment after the race just says,"I was able to make a good start and ride smoothly during the race. The horse has a future." No accident whatsoever? Oh, no.

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7:30 p.m. The trial races for the autumn G1s are coming in a rush. This week we're having Rose Stakes (Shuka-sho trial) as well as Centlight Kinen (Kikka-sho trial) on Monday as Monday is a holiday.

When the news first came in about Cerbiatto was aiming for Shuka-sho, I wasn't sure what to make of it. Now that I know Christophe is going to ride, I can't help but smile because I know she'd be favored but isn't going to win Rose Stakes.

Personally, I don't think Cerbiatto's profile will fit the requirements for Hanshin turf 1800m. Plus, she's a Lord Kanaloa descendant that performs better in faster, tougher races. Cerbiatto has just proven that in NHK Mile Cup. As she's already performed highly in her previous race, Cerbiatto also has the risk of damage backfiring.

With so many risks, I consider not to key Cerbiatto.

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9:27 p.m. At the end of the day after having worked with a young client, I was met with the news that Haru Urara has passed away.

In the news article, I learned that there's been tourists fom all over the world visiting her at the farm where she was kept these days, thanks to the new versions of Uma Musume released in other languages besides Japanese.

I wasn't a great fan of her, though in the sense that she moved the hearts of so many fans, Haru Urara wasn't much different from horses like Oguri Cap or Tokai Teio. The number of wins in their career is not the only thing that defines a great horse.

You've done a good job in fascinating as well as encouraging many people. Rest in peace, Haru Urara.

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7:52 p.m. Let's get back to Rose Stakes before I launch on my preparation for tomorrow's meeting.

Just like Centaur Stakes, Rose Stakes also has been affected by the renewals of Kyoto and Hanshin that it's been held at Chukyo as a 2000m race in years 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024. So I need to remind myself that it's a race that always finished with a fast record, which is not so hard to imagine reflecting on last week's Centaur Stakes.

From 2015 to 2019 when this race was held at Hanshin, the finishing time all fits in between 1 minute 44.4 seconds and 1 minute 45.7 seconds as long as the track condition is firm. In 2016, Rose Stakes was run on soft track but the winner finished in 1 minute 46.7 seconds, despite the power-consuming condition.

As you can see, it's going to be another super-fast track week.

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9:05 p.m. Entries have been closed for the weekend and Rose Stakes this year is running with 18 horses, great! Horrifyingly, there was a time when only 12 horses ran in this Shuka-sho trial, so it's good to have a full-field race. At this point, all the horses running in this race have a chance to win the last crown.

Across the ocean, Byzantine Dream seems to have won Qatar Prix Foy 2025 while rain was pouring over Tokyo. I've read in an article yesterday that Japanese horses might have a better chance of winning Prix de l'Arc this year. Will have to wait and see about that.

Hanshin also seem to have been experiencing some rain on and off through the week. The forecast says it will be sunny on Sunday, so I'm assuming the track condition to be close to that of last week.

The expected win odds of Cerbiatto has dropped out from the top 3 behind my back. I'm not sure exactly how they're calculating these odds, but they must have heard me talking.

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8:27 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and announced. It looks like Mikki Madonna and Paradis Reine didn't have much luck as they drew inner posts although they seem to get easily discouraaged. Mikki Jewelry also might not be good when pressured, but if she could take the lead, perhaps there won't be much worries about getting into a push and shove with other horses.

I hate to have to admit it, though Kamunyak has drawn an ideal post. If I'm forced to point out her weakpoints, I'd say that she hasn't achieved any wins on clockwise courses, let alone Hanshin turf. The outstanding speed she'd shown in Oaks is still threatening.

Hanshin turf condition as of today seems slightly softer than last week. It shall dry a bit more by Sunday. The turf isn't as damaged as I'd feared so it may be said that we're having another week of fast track with the finishing record pretty fast.

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9:36 p.m. Having trouble staying awake as always.

Hanshin may have a slight rainshower tomorrow afternoon, but that seems to be the only threat of rain. The turf would go as firm. As expected, today's race results showed that the track condition was pretty fast, with the finishing record of a turf 1800m maiden race being 1 minute 45.4 seconds. It could possibly get into the 44 seconds range tomorrow depending on the pace.

Speaking of pace, I don't think it's going to be that tight. Say, average would be the most possible. That means horses that could position themselves up front will have the advantage, as well as horses running in the same distance or extending the distance form their previous race. High aptitude for fast, firm track is a must.

I'm currently struggling with 7 horses, Rouge Solitaire, Mikki Madonna, Paradis Reine, Mikki Jewelry, Tagano Abby, Kamunyak, and Conduire. I've boldly deleted Cerviatto.

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7:54 p.m. It turned out to be a succession of unexpected things.

First, Tagano Abby got excluded from the race. I was wondering which to key, Tagano Abby or Kamunyak, so perhaps I've been saved. No, that's not right. Come to think of it, I'd have had all my betting money back if I keyed Tagano Abby.

Second, the pace got tight. There's a long backstretch before entering the third corner so it's rare for the front runners to get into fierce position battles to raise the pace. As you know, I expected the pace to be average or even slow. Why else would I keep so many inner post drawers for?

Finally, there was the chain-reaction accident caused by Mikki Madonna and Sena Style. The jockies of these horses have both been punished with penalty. Kamunyak has won with enough gap to show her strength, though it would have been more pleasant if not for the interference.

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