8:27 p.m. Tired since I had to clean the whole house. Although my place is very small, it's a task to clean all the rooms which is why it keeps me away for as long as passable.

Time to start checking out the features and recent trends of Kyoto Daishoten, apart from the fact it usually ends without going wild. Basically, Kyoto Daishoten rarely runs at a tight pace as the leading battle settles before the horses enter the first corner. Last year was an excepton in that sense. Because the race usually unfolds at an average to slow pace, the inner post drawers naturally gets the advatage. So it's only the front runners that need caution concerning horses starting from outer posts, just like Sprinters' Stakes.

The results of the past 10 years back up what I said, except for King of Koji who won the third place in 2020. This I believe, was a special situation when the inner post drawers other than Kiseki turned out to be not capable enough to finish above third place.

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8:56 p.m. After finishing the setting changes for my mail provider, I finally got around to checking out the latest news about Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. The forecast seems to have changed and now they're saying that Longchamp will have rain from Friday to Saturday. Well, I'm not counting on the weather, I just said that it would be easier for Japanese horses to perform well if the track was dry, fast, less power-consuming.

Just checked the closed entry form for Kyoto Daishoten. 18 horses running. All right, it's going to be afull-field race! That's much more attractive as well as interesting than a small-field Mainichi Ohkan which probably will run on fast, dry turf.

Okay, let me take a quick look at Kyoto's weather this weekend. Woah, they're having rain on Saturday! All te more reason I should bet on Kyoto Daishoten.

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8:31 p.m. The results of the barrier draws are released and it looks like Satono Shining is the odds-on favorite in Mainichi Ohkan as expected. I guess that can't be helped since 3-year-olds running in D'erby previously have all made it to the podium in the past 10 years. If there's a 3-year-old running in Mainichi Ohkan, that would be the most reliable horse to key especially when they've run in a G1 previously. As for horses with their step race being Radio NIKKEI-sho, you need to be careful because horses that have performed well in several grade races already in their short careers can become boobie traps just like Ambitious.

Turning my eyes to Kyoto, horses that were expected to be favored mostly drew inner posts other than Shonan la Punta. I don't think there's a horse like King of Koji starting from an outer post this year, at least not at this point, so the candidates will naturally be chosen from inner post drawers. Shonan la Punta? Well, maybe just in case.

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9:28 p.m. Quite an amount of rain seems to have fallen in Kyoto that the turf condition has been announced as "soft" from race 5. The forecast for tomorrow is generally rainy though how long it would rain defers according to each forecast, so no matter how good Kyoto's drainage system has become, I'm expecting the turf to be soft or good to firm at best.

Keeping that in mind, let's add the conditions that will be advantaged, inner post drawers and front runners. Oh no, that would leave only Admire Terra, Sunrise Earth, and Durezza when I'm getting quite suspicious about Admire Terra! Let's see if there are any horses that might have the chance to go up front in the outer barriers.

Shonan la Punta? Nawwwww! He's the fourth favored! My choosing Kyoto Daishoten over Mainichi Ohkan would lose meaning if I bet on the first to fourth favored horses, wouldn't it? But then, this is a race that often ends on the safe side.

I'll scruitinize the racing form and ponder my options. Incidentally, I'm currently left with Admire Terra, Sunrise Earth, Durezza, Wurttenberg, Submariner, June Take, and Shonan la Punta.

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7:30 p.m. Again, I keyed the wrong horse, Durezza. It was my bad, but I have something to say about how the horse was ridden. When you sweep the outside with a horse like Durezza, you don't stop when you reach the leading horse, you sweep up to take the lead yourself to build a gap between the others. The only jockey who could stop once and control the horse is Christophe, not you, Takeshi. Besides, Kikka-sho was a miracle with ecerything falling into one place, it won't happen again. I bet even Christophe can't ride Durezza like that anymore.

I just wanted to vent out a bit for the horse. Thanks, now I can move on.

I was torn between keying Sunrise Earth who would surely go up front and Durezza who ran in Takaraduka Kinen recently, as Takaraduka Kinen I thought, was a good prep race. I had no intention of keying Admire Terra since I doubted his performance, but even if I'd chosen Sunrise Earth, I probably couldn't reach Vermicelles because the only reason to convince me was the 55kg weight she carried.

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7:53 p.m. This week we're having... oh? It's not time for Shuka-sho yet? According to my calendar, it says Ireland Trophy(G2) at Tokyo. What? Ireland Trophy?

Oh yes, JRA renewed the racing schedule (and the race itself). So this Ireland Trophy shown on my calendar actually is the former Fuchu Hinba Stakes if I got it right. It's so confusing because we now have a race named Fuchu Hinba in early summer instead of former Mermaid Stakes. Now I understand. Otherwise, I couldn't realize the reason why JRA is running Tokyo turf 1800m G2 races 2 weeks in a row.

Okey-dokey! Ireland Trophy, ex-Fuchu Hinba Stakes is limited to female horses, but Mainichi Ohkan shall be a good race to refer to. Since Mainichi Ohkan clocked 1 min. 44.0, I'm sure Ireland Trophy would also finish in the 44 seconds range, unless the track gets soft. There were times when the finishing time recorded well into the 46 seconds range, which I suppose was when the race level wasn't so high with no entry of female G1 winners.

This year we have entries of 17 horses at this point and... oh, no. I just discovered there weren't any female G1 winners entered.

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9:02 p.m. Come to think of it, though the moved Fuchu Hinba Stakes (the former Mermaid Stakes) has just been run three and a half months ago on the same course, in the same distance and the top 3 winners of Fuchu Hinba are all entered in Ireland Trophy.

Nevertheless, if you think these top 3 horses would also finish first, second, third in Ireland Trophy, that is not usually the case with horserace. Especially, when Fuchu Hinba Stakes was a handicapped race. Some of the horses that performed well in the race carried lighter weight, but this time Ireland Trophy is a special weight G2 race where horses carry weights decided in advance. Kana Tape, the second place winner in Fuchu Hinba has to carry 2kg heavier weight this time, while her rival as well as Fuchu Hinba champion Sekitoba East is carrying 0.5kg lighter weight.

Getting more and more interesting, dont-ya-think?

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8:45 p.m. When I checked the expected win odds on a major horseracing site this afternoon, I was caught by surprise to see the top three favored horses, which names were Admire Matsuri, Bond Girl, and Kana Tape. How on earth could Kana Tape be more favored than Sekitoba East? As I said yesterday, they've already raced against each other merely three and a half months ago resulting in Sekitoba's victory by 1 length, despite Kana Tape's 2.5kg lighter carrying weight.

Just checked the same expected win odds chart to find out that now Sekitoba has been pushed up to the third favored, while Kana Tape has dropped a notch. The chart still can't be trusted, though the odds seem to be split among the top four horses. THAT can be understood. After all, there aren't any G1 winners running this year.

Please don't get me wrong, I'm not nitpicking on Admire Matsuri, Bond Girl nor Kana Tape. Anyway, the odds seem to suggest a big payout. Will need to work hard on winning this race.

Meanwhile, Narukami has earned an easy win in Japan Dirt Classic recording an outstanding 2 min. 3.7 seconds. Sometimes you need hopeful news to light up your day.

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9:13 p.m. Some forecasts are predicting rain for Saturday, due to the approaching typhoon stimulating the rain front. There is a chance that the track gets soft on Sunday.

If the turf turns out to be soft, you might as well consider outer post starters since horses with two digit numbers tend to do well when the track is soft unless they are front runners. In other words, inner post starters generally perform better when the turf is dry.

From a personal point of view, horses with high achievements on courses with long straights such as Tokyo, Kyoto, or Niigata are likely to perform well in Fuchu Hinba. Chukyo mile has a similar course layout to Tokyo 1800m, so perhaps that's the reason why horses running in Sekiya Kinen are also performing well.

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8:05 p.m. Okay, the barrier draw for Ireland Trophy is released, so let's take a look.

Not so sure about Admire Matsuri drawing the inner-most post as she might give up the race easily when she has to hit the brake while accelerating. Perhaps you can rely on the rider, but it is a barrier that often gets stuck especially when the horse is a front runner.

Sekitoba East has drawn an outer post. If she stays behind, it will surely be a difficult race since she doesn't have the sharpness Tokyo 1800m requires. In a way of thinking, if the track condition becomes soft and power-consuming, Sekitoba will be advantaged.

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8:57 p.m. It rained on and off all day but forecasts say the rain will stop tomorrow. Today's turf track condition was announced to be firm, so there will be no chance of it getting softer. The turf races run at Tokyo today were all too low in level that there weren't much to refer to.

Looking at the situation with a cool head, it's less likely to see a giant-killing in Ireland Trophy. My take is that if the payout turned out to be big, it would be brouht by favored horses screwing up rather than a dark horse beating all the others.

As a consequence, I'm thinking of keying Sekitoba East on a wheel of Admire Matsuri, Kana Tape, Bond Girl, Lilac, and Safira, maybe add a few (Doe eyes or Lavanda?).

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Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. I was far off the mark. So far off indeed that I almost feel refreshing.

Bond Girl who eventually became the most favored in win odds sank in 9th place, the second favored Admire Matsuri not much better in the 7th place, the third favored my Ms. Sekitoba in a miserable 10th place.

Three favored horses have sunk low and in that sense I guessed right, but I didn't expect Sekitoba would go down with them. Having been beaten all together by Lavanda, the level wasn't high.

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Caterpillar

9:32 p.m. Stupid Cow watching TV and laughing out loud while I'm working hard, preparing for tomorrow's meeting. Pretty annoying.

Swan Stakes run today had a record finish BTW. An astonishing 1min. 18.9 seconds, I've seen for the first time in my life! It shows that Kyoto's track condition is firm and fast. I've just checked the stats and the turf moisture is announced as 6.8% (near finish line) and 7.8% (near the 4th corner), which is also surprising that it made me look twice. Never seen that before either.

The dry, firm, and fast turf condition makes me think of horses with American blood peforming well but then, there was only one which actually did in Swan Stakes, Wide Latour. The winner Off Trail and third place winnwer Lance of Chaos both had European background as is the trend with Kyoto turf these days. You might also note that the top threee finishers were all starting from inner posts. When the pace doesn't get tight on a fast track, trailers won't be able to make it to the top if they swung around the outside.

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9:31 p.m. I had a meeting this evening and it's getting late, so just a quick preview of Shuka-sho coming up this weekend.

Kyoto turf 2000m has changed a bit after renewal giving more advantage to horses with European background. It requires more stamina compared to before. Also, distances over 2000m are generally tough for female 3-year-old horses as you can easily guess from the results of Oaks, which again seem to point out the necessity of stamina as well as toughness. What's more, the weekly forecasts that I just checked all predicts rainy weather for Kyoto except for Friday.

All these sum up to having European blood in either the sireline or broodmaresire line in order to perform well in Shuka-sho.

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Caterpillar

8:28 p.m. I don't like to be interrupted. No, I really hate interruptions because they get me distracted and confused. Right now I'm summoning up my tolerance to desperately concentrate on what I have to do while stupid Cow keeps bothering me with questions and mumbles. Frustrated. Very. Much.

Getting back to Shuka-sho. Considering the course layout, the track condition and that it's going to be a big-field race, drawing inner posts usually is a benefit in Shuka-sho, especially when the pace runs at either average or slow. But because there isn't much distance before entering the first corner, there are cases when the front position battle become fierce, often resulting in a tight pace.

If the pace gets tight, chances will expand for trailers starting from outer posts. The problem here is that we're never sure what the pace is going to be like.

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7:46 p.m. The entry for Shuka-sho hasbeen closed and there will be 18 horses running. It's going to be a full-field race, great! As I always say, a big-field race is welcomed whether it's a G1 or a maiden race, because there are times when the year-end Grand Prix, Arima Kinen running with just 12 horses where you can actually feel your interest as well as volatility waning in a matter of seconds.

Now that all the candidates are listed, it's up to the track condition and the barrier draw. The pace can't be certain until the horses start running, so all I can do is guess from the result of the barrier draw.

As for my analysis of the past 10 years, 10 out of 30 horses finishing above third place in Shuka-sho were running in Oaks previously, while 5 of them were Oaks winners. For those who are wondering what to make of Kamnyak, there were 19 horses (out of 60) finishing above third place in Shuka-sho that ran in both Oaks and Rose Stakes in the past 20 years when challenging Shuka-sho directly from Oaks was technically difficult. Of these horses, only Nuvo Record and Gentildonna had won both Oaks and Rose Stakes, just for your information.

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5:11 p.m. All right, everyone! Here's the barrier draw result for Shuka-sho!

Aw, Kamnyak has drawn post number 17! I can't recall a horse winning Shuka-sho starting from 17 or 18, but if Kamnyak is a really great horse as to have won the triple crown if she'd run Ohka-sho, then perhaps?

Let's wait and see how the track condition might turn out.

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Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. Although forecasts are threatening with some more rain tonight in Kyoto, the turf condition tomorrow is expected to be firm. The course is only slightly damaged on the inside and It's likely for the winning record to be fast. Despite the slight damage, inner post drawers as well as front runners are still performing highly, but if the pace gets tight there might be room for trailers starting from outer posts to catch the front runners before the finish line.

All things considered, I've narrowed down the candidates for Shuka-sho to 7 and here are the names of those horses: Rouge Solitaire, Jocelyn, Theresa, Ma Puce, Embroidery, Sena Style, and Kamnyak.

Have been struggling to decide which horse to key, though. Jocelyn, Theresa, Sena Style or Kamnyak? Rouge Solitaire and Ma Puce night disappear from the list as they are just-in-case horses for the third row.

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7:34 p.m. The horses I bet on performed as follows; Embroidery first place, Jocelyn fourth place, Sena Style fifth place, and Kamnyak sixteenth place.

Didn't I say Erika Express would make a come-back later after seeing her run in Ohka-sho? Didn't I say that the front runners will also benefit from the current track condition as well as inner post starters? Didn't I tell myself that Kamnyak can't be trusted enough to key?

When will I ever learn?

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Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. I don't want to make the same mistake again in Kikka-sho. That is, keying an odds-on favorite and then being paid back with a miserable loss.

Eri King, surely would be favored as he's won the step race Kobe Shinbun-hai, as well as Energico finishing 2nd in Niigata Kinen. Possibly, Energico might even beat Eri King in the win odds, since he hasn't yet lost below third place.

However, I've already found some suspicious points in both of these horses and am wlling to avoid them in case they turn out to be dangerous horses such as Kamnyak. Let's scruitinze these two horses one at a time starting tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

8:16 p.m. Let's start from the assumingly most favored in win odds, Eri King.

First of all, the reason Eri King is thought to be the most favored is because he has won Kobe Shinbun-hai, the trial race fore Kikka-sho. It was a flashy win I admit, but there were only 10 horses running with just 2 horses good enough to be judged as Eri King's rival, Shohei and Giovanni.

Kobe Shinbun-hai was run at a slow pace, whichi means that the winner Eri King performs best in a small-field race run at a leisurely pace. However, Kikka-sho is likely to be run with a bigger field of horses, possibly with a full field. In order for Eri King to avoid the push and shove to run smoothly he needs to draw an outer post, though that would become a double edged sword as starting from an outer post on Kyoto course has to bear the disadvantage of distance loss, which Christophe describes as "running 3500m,".

In addition, there's no guarantee that Kikka-sho would run at an even slower pace compared to Kobe Shinbun-hai.

There. Doesn't that bring up anxiety?

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Caterpillar

7:51 p.m. Moving on to the possibly second most favored in win odds, Energico.

Energico was expected to be one of the D'erby horse candidates but didn't seem to have a strong build despite his name, which is assumed to be the reason he didn't enter D'erby even after winning Aoba-sho, the trial race. After the summer break, the horse has gained 12kg to barely reach 468kg, though I wonder if the gained weight could supply enough power and stamina to beat 500kg-range horses such as Eri King, Goltzschtal, or Yamanin Bouclier. Sure, Durezza was the same weight, but he ran away and didn't join the push-and-shove, remember?

The biggest concern however, is that Energico has only run on wide, counter clock-wise courses as Tokyo and Niigata. Many of you must already know that Kyoto 3000m over are tricky settings with an uphill on the back-stretch that has to be run twice considering the distance, while turning 6 clock-wise corners through the race. Would Energico be able to get over this difficult setting in his first try?

Energico also hasn't experienced a tough, big-field race starting from an inner post except for his maiden race when he was still fresh, very fresh.

See? Now I only feel anxiety.

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Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. Get ready, folks! Here's the result of the barrier draw for Kikka-sho 2025!

Energico has drawn an ideal post where he could move smoothly if he makes a good start. But the cornering problem stays unsolved. Eri King drew an outer post so the distance loss can't be avoided. It should be better than drawing post number 18 in other words, within aceptable range.

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Caterpillar