2021/1
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021/ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

1/01  Let's Look to the Future

4:51 p.m. Happy New Year everyone! It's a new year. I won't say forget about the last, it's been a tough one and we shouldn't forget what happened. But let's look to the future and have hope that this corona crisis would settle down with the warming of weather.

Have spent most of the first day of my new year tackling the drain pipe glued to my washing machine. It had a hole in it and needed to be replaced however, I couldn't do this easily as I'd thought because it was attached to the machine itself with an adhesive. Eventually, I gave up the replacement covering the hole with a new pipe and wrapping the edge with a vinyl tape. Tried filling the washing tank with water and it doesn't look like it's leaking, good.

As you might already know, Kyoto Kinpai this year will be held on Chukyo mile due to the now familiar Kyoto race course rennovation. I've also quick-checked the past 10 years of Nakayama Kinpai results to find out that 70% the most favored horse have been finishing within 3rd place.

The End

Caterpillar

1/02  Too Occupied, Again

10:41 p.m. I've been too occupied washing, fixing the layout of my new place, unpacking a couple of cardboard boxes and cooking meals for myself in between. It took some time for me to recall how to use the twin-tub washing machine. Can't be helped. I hadn't touched it for 18 years.

Haven't had time to research on Kinpai today. Hopefully, I'll have some time tomorrow. Hpefully, I'll have some time tomorrow. I need a big block of time to do a thorough research. It's the Kinpai. Shouldn't underestimate it, really.

The End

Caterpillar

1/03  Please Take Care

9:18 p.m. The Quadrans Muralis meteor shower is at peak tonight after 11:00 PM. Those living on the Pacific side will have a chance to catch them however, friends living on the Japan Sea side must be fighting the cold and snow. Please take care. Don't worry you'll have another chance next year as this meteor shower is an annual one.

Briefed through the entry forms of Kinpai. Hmmm... the level seems lower than usual. Must be careful not to overestimate the 4-year-olds. They are last year's 3-year-olds, the generation that has been proved to be very frail except for the triple crown winners.

The End

Caterpillar

1/04  Wider Scotch Tape

7:30 p.m. Sorry I haven't had the time to do my research for Kinpai, what with assembling my new kitchen cart, unpacking the newly bought rice cooker, and preparing supper. I'll upload my call for Kinpai by tomorrow noon, I promise.

One thing I learned from unpacking is I hate those tapes they use lately to seal the boxes. You know, the kind that looks like a wider scotch tape but much thinner yet tougher. This tape is such a nuissance as it tears apart in parts you least want it to, and doesn't come off easily like the craft tapes they used to use. Very frustrating and time-consuming.

The End

Caterpillar

1/05  Sorry, Sorry, Sorry

11:30 p.m. Sorry, sorry, sorry. I tried my best but have only finished up to Nakayama Kinpai. Will upload Kyoto Kinpai later.

Will key Hishi Iguaz, on a wheel of Territorial, Shonan Bardi, R Star, Vin Quet Domingo, and Win Exceed. Now, let me get back to calling Kyoto Kinpai, will you?

Thanks for waiting, hope I made it before you buy betting tickets. For Kyoto Kinpai, I'll key Peace One Paradis on a wheel of Lord My Way, Red Anemos, Shuri, and Satono Arthur. Happy Kinpai!

The End

Caterpillar

1/06  State of Emergency

6:24 p.m. Feeling gloomy thanks not just to another state of emergency announcement that's being said to be out tomorrow, but mostly because of the media that sensationally repeats the number of PCR positives every day as the number of "infections", although 90% of them actually haven't developed COVID-19 symptoms. I'm getting sick of it being repeated like weather forecasts. And maybe a little because I lost Kinpai except for a place for Piece One Pradis.

Going on the Internet to cheer myself up have come across a research on where clusters were reported. The bar graph of Tokyo showed that 70 to 80% of them have been reported from offices and medical facilities, with the remaining 20 to 30% from shops and restaurants. While Mr. big shot claims that it's the restaurants causing this spreading, I doubt if the emergency statement and restrictions against restaurants have any effect. It seems to me that they just want to appeal the restrictions have proved to be effective. Look, the numbers went down considerably!

The End

Caterpillar

1/07  Want My Life Back

6:49 p.m. State of emergency announcement has been made for Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, and Saitama. As I've mentioned, I doubt if it has much effect on lowering the numbers of the so-called "infections".

Meanwhile, Joe Biden has become the 46th president of the United States. The world is moving, moving along. I hope this corona crisis would also move on to a better stage. I just want my ordinary, peaceful life back, I miss it so much.

The End

Caterpillar

1/08  Shinzan Kinen Already

3:29 p.m. Unexpected family affair has popped up and I'm not sure whether I can call Shinzan Kinen this weekend. As a matter of fact, I've been surprised to see we were having Shinzan Kinen already as well as on Chukyo mile. Ah, yes.

Also, many of you might already know but Fierement hass been announced to retire. The horse seems to have developed an injury in his right foreleg tendon. I've picked up a piece of news before Arima Kinen that Fierement had a swelling in his foreleg which was one reason I didn't key him. Perhaps running Arima Kinen was not a good choice.

The surprising (well, not so surprising come to think of it) thing about Fierement is he's only run 11 races (winning 5 of them) when he's retiring at the age of 6. How many races do they think Stay Gold has run?

The End

Caterpillar

1/09  Been Apologizing

7:11 p.m. As mentioned earlier, I didn't have time nor enough capacity in my mental state to call Shinzan Kinen this year. I'm sorry. Feel like I've been apologizing every week for the past month or so.

A quick look at the racing form tells me that I shouldn't trust Kukuna, just because she's come in 2nd after Sodashi in Artemis Stakes. My faint memory is ringing an alert. Perhaps Bathrat Leon might perform well. The experience of racing in a G1 might do him good, but only if/when he doesn't have left-over damage with such short interval of 2 weeks.

The End

Caterpillar

1/10  Not a Bad Call

9:26 p.m. Bathrat Leon finished 3rd while Kukuna lost in 4th place. Well, that wasn't such a bad call. Though I doubt if I could have won a trio let alone a trifecta, as it was a young horses' race. You never know what's gonna happen especially, when the horses are still young and not yet used to running races.

Still, this could be a good sign. Japan is currently hit by a cold wave whilst living with corona virus. It might look like we're doomed to some of you but hang on just a little bit longer. The cold wave will pass in a few days and the temperature will rise although just a wee bit.

As for the corona virus, the spreading will subdue with the rising of temperature. According to our old event calendar, February 3rd is the beginning of spring. It will get warmer by March and things will become better. Also, Ushio Lighting will start selling Care222 uv disinfection lights by the end of January if all goes well. When these lamps are set in medical facilities, offices, restaurants and karaoke boxes, we will be able to rest in peace again.

The End

Caterpillar

1/11  One More Day

9:13 p.m. It's getting real cold and snowfall is expected from late tonight to tomorrow, even in Tokyo. Hang on everyone, for just one more day things will start to get better from then.

As they often say, when winter comes spring can't be far away. In the meantime, think I'll start my research for Nikkei Shinshun-hai. Have also lots of reviews to finish up which I've been neglecting since year-end. Have lots to do as always.

The End

Caterpillar

1/12  Whoa

4:16 p.m. I've been to take a glimpse of the entry form for Nikkei Shinshun-hai and whoa. Didn't expect so many horses entered, 22 horses at the moment. Wow, I thought I was looking at Kokura's racing form.

The past 10 years' results cannot be blindly trusted as the race is going to be held at Chukyo this year. However, Chukyo has been used to substitute Kyoto races for a while and its characteristics are giving me a couple of clues. That is far better than having no clues.

The End

Caterpillar

1/13  Endlessly High Wall

2:45 p.m. Breaking news tells that jockey Kaito Otsuka who has been away from turf since his injury during a race on January 5th 2020, has sued his mentor, trainer Tetsuya Kimura for power harassment. Why now?

Lately being required to do multi-tasking which I'm terrible at resulting in the expected case of not being able to finish anything... So now I'm sitting at the computer to at least finish this one task in front of myself. One step at a time, take it easy, I tell myself though sometimes it seems to me like climbing up an endlessly high wall.

The End

Caterpillar

1/14  Why Such Delay?

4:46 p.m. The entry for Nikkei Shinshun-hai is supposed to be closed and announced this afternoon however, JRA hasn't uploaded it yet. Wonder why such delay do occur when their workload must be decreasing under the state of emergency period while JRA was one of the first to announce going back to no-spectators race. Will have to wait, humph.

On the other hand, a list of horses that are planning to enter AJCC next week has been out. Names of Aristoteles, Win Marilyn, Weltreisende, Satono Flag can be seen among older horses like Generale Uno, Stay Foolish, Jinambo, Mozu Bello or Last Draft. Not to mention the center of attraction would be Aristoteles, who put up a good fight against Contrail last year in Kikkasho.

The End

Caterpillar

1/15  Oh My

6:01 p.m. Oh my. What I feared has happened. Announcement has been made that Saturnalia is retiring. The horse has recovered from its slight injury in the left hock however, back muscles are being lost from the long blank and the crew seem to have decided it was better to retire as it would be difficult to perform its best on turf.

The current 4-year-olds (last year's 3-year-olds) may be fragile yes, but the 5-year-olds are mostly spoiled. Satsuki-sho winner Saturnalia will be gone, D'erby winner Roger Barrows is long gone, and Kikka-sho winner World Premier can't win a race after Kikka-sho. Velox running Nikkei Shinshun-hai this weekend is also from the same generation and he hasn't won a race since Wakaba Stakes, a step race for Satsuki-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

1/16  Earlier Than Usual

11:32 p.m. Had to get up and come to work earlier than usual. Thankfully, I had enough time to ponder Nikkei shinshun-hai.

Will key Sanrei Poket. I've been torn between Daiwa Cagney, but thought Pocket suits the requirements better. On the wheel would be Daiwa Cagney, Valerio, Velox, Admire Virgo, Courageux Guerrier. Perhaps might add Satono Saltus but then, will have to cut someone off.

The End

Caterpillar

1/17  Unexpected Revisited

10:37 p.m. Admire Virgo and Velox have both sunk in 10th place and 9th place, respectively in Nikkei Shinshun-hai. Well, that was unexpected. That Shoryu Ikuzo and Miss Mamma Mia finished 1st and 2nd was also unexpected. There are such mysteries in the world.

The pace was average, but the fact that the top 2 horses both carried lighter weight might suggest that there isn't a big gap between grade race winners and non-grade race winners. Still, the favored grade race winners were disappointing, I shall say.

I wonder if this year's 3-year-olds would win grade races this summer? Maybe they would eat up all the older ones especially when the 4-year-olds are so disappointing.

The End

Caterpillar

1/18  Triwd Reviewing A Little

1:14 p.m. Had a bit of time so tried reviewing Nikkei Shinshun-hai a little.

Looks like the race had become monotonous which often seem to happen in distances like a mile and a furlong or a mile and 3 furlongs especially, on courses that have an uphill in the last stretch such as Nakayama or Hanshin. As a result, the spontaneous speed type horses like Deep Impact descendants sunk low, with the help of the jam in the last stretch, carrying weight and left-over damage.

Taking that into account, perhaps Welreisende, Stay Foolish, Generale Uno, Sun Appleton, Satono Flag, or Arisoteles might do well in this weekend's AJCC. Though Satono Flag and Aristoteles need to be clear of left-over damage, whilst Generale Uno and Sun Appleton need to draw outer posts.

The End

Caterpillar

1/19  Example of A Monotonous Race

4:54 p.m. Tokai Stakes held this weekend is another good example of a monotonous race because of its distance being a mile and a furlong, run on Chukyo, and it's a dirt race. Dirt races tend to be more monotonous than turf races in my opinion.

If you look at the past results, it's easy to see the leading horses are doing well. The reason is the characteristics of this race that it usually becomes monotonous. Horses that take the lead mostly pushes with average speed througout the race, not having enough spontaneous speed to take over other horses. They usually have emotional problems too. So in order to control them, it's best to take the lead.

And what happens if a horse takes the lead to pull the race in average speed? The race becomes monotonous, spontaneous speed will be killed.

The End

Caterpillar

1/20  AJCC Also Monotonous

3:25 p.m. AJCC is also a race that tends to be monotonous. The past results show leading horses and front runners doing well regardless of their favority. Since it's run on Nakayama where the corners are tight, it would be difficult to take over from behind. It would be necessary to get a good position within 5th place from the top at the last corner, in order to finish within 3rd place.

The most favored in win odds are doing well in AJCC too, unless they have a good reason to sink e.g. performing too well in their previous race, performing highly in the last 2 races, or currently going into a slump.

Meanwhile, Kurofune has passed away. I've never seen any other horse that wins a dirt race with the speed of a turf. R.I.P.

The End

Caterpillar

1/21  Better Start

5:41 p.m. Entry has been closed for both AJCC and Tokai Stakes. Better start working on them. But then, which race should I call?

Have been tied up with miscellaneous work and finally getting down to the computer. Don't know how far I could go though will have to give it a try. A new president has got to work in the States. I shall pep up myself and get to work. Gumption.

The End

Caterpillar

1/22  Rain is Expected

5:06 p.m. The barrier draw has been announced.

Rain is expected for tomorrow and Sunday for Tokyo and it depends on how much it rains, but if the turf condition becomes soft or even yielding, the front runners and inner post drawers would have the advantage for AJCC. Epiphaneia descendants usually do well on power consuming tracks so it comes down to whether Aristoteles have left-over damage from Kikkaho or not.

Chukyo also is expected of rain during the weekend, so Tokai Stakes might have a fast clock. Perhaps Auvergne is praying for rain. Inti will have a hard time if he takes the lead as he will become a good target. Well, that's what Yutaka is for, though.

The End

Caterpillar

1/23  Decided to Call AJCC

7:23 p.m. Nakayama's track condition was soft today. Yes, I've decided to call AJCC. My wild guess for Tokai Stakes is that Inti would take the lead but become a good target and taken over 100 meters before he hits the wire to lose in 3rd place.

Back to AJCC. I'll key Last Draft. My intuition tells me it's Satono Flag however, how many times have I been bitten by the current 4-year-olds? Unfortunately, I'm too shy to trust them any more. On the wheel would be Satono Flag, Sun Appleton, Arisoteles, Stay Foolish, and Generale Uno. Oops, where did Weltreisende go?

The End

Caterpillar

1/24  Wasn't a Fake

4:37 p.m. Aristoteles (and Christophe) has proven his performance in Kikka-sho wasn't a fake and, that there wasn't much damage left or rather, he's recovered. Meanwhile, I didn't include Weltreisende in my wheel. I should have, I know, if I were to bet on Sun Appleton, or Stay Foolish or Generale Uno, I should have.

AJCC's result gives me a bit of hope, though. Not all 4-year-olds are as frail or untrustable as their being said. At least the top horses; horses that came in 2nd place in last year's classics (plus Contrail and Daring Tact of course), can perform well against the spoiled older horses. Better keep that in mind.

The End

Caterpillar

1/25  Farewell to Nakayama

5:01 p.m. We're saying farewell to Nakayama finally with the start of Tokyo race course this weekend while Chukyo is going to have a short recess of 4 weeks after Kisaragi-sho on February 7th.

This week we're having Negishi Stakes (a step for February Stakes) and Silkroad Stakes (a step for Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen). We've got less than a month to go before February Stakes and when February Stakes is over, spring is right around the corner.

The End

Caterpillar

1/26  Names Gone

5:43 p.m. Looking back on last year's Negishi Stakes, I realize many of the names gone from this year's entry. Kopano Kicking is entered in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint in Saudi Arabia, Mozu Ascot has retired as well as Smart Avalon.

Tokyo dirt 1400m is another characteristic stage in the sense that the pace doesn't change drastically during the race once it's set. In other words, it's a nother "monotonous" race. It will be a chance for horses that have the speed to perform well in a sprint race while a mile is too long.

The End

Caterpillar

1/27  Wish Me Luck

2:42 p.m. I'm thinking of calling Silkroad Stakes this week revisiting my first step. Chukyo 1200m is one of the race conditions that pay out big amounts. Besides, wouldn't it be a good simulation for Takamatsuno-miya Kinen?

I know damn well I'm not good at sprint races however, you'll never get over it unless you challenge what you're not good at. Not to mention I need tons of research, pondering and a good strategy, though. Wish me luck!

The End

Caterpillar

1/28  It Snowed, Too

6:34 p.m. The entry has been closed while I've been researching the competitors running Silk Road Stakes. And it snowed, too. Though it was only for a short time. No wonder it's cold. But next week it's going to be warmer and the cherry blossoms are predicted to start blooming on March 22nd in Tokyo. Can't wait!

As expected, Deep Impact (and Kizuna or Real Impact) descendants are doing well on Chukyo regardless of the track condition or pace. It could be just a matter of numbers as there are so many however, the power types like Epiphaneia or Screen Hero or Lord Kanaloa, King Kamehameha descendants seem to lag behind despite current Chukyo's power-consuming turf condition.

The End

Caterpillar

1/29  Would-be Leading Horse

4:47 p.m. The barrier draw have been announced for this weekend. As for Silkroad Stakes, the would-be leading horse Mozu Superflare drew an outer post while want-to leading horse Seiun Kosei drew an inner post. This suggests a high pace.

Mozu is a monotonous type regardless of the pace. Her performance depends on whether she could keep her own rhythm. If she gets poked at by other horses, she would easily give up the race. Not sure if Seiun Kosei would considering his age and his recent performances though if the pace becomes tight, the front runners taking good positions behind the leader would have the biggest chance to win. The trailers also might come dashing in the last stretch.

The End

Caterpillar

1/30  Up and Down

6:43 p.m. The win odds have been going up and down as well as the favority. Mozu Superflare who'd been the most favored yesterday has once dropped an then come back to the top again. Looks like everyone is seeking for big money.

As for my call, I keyed Lauda Sion. Aristoteles has shown how the top horses can perform against older horses despite being a part of the frail 4-year-olds. Mirco might be betting his lilfe, but I'm betting my life, too. On the wheel would be Eighteen Girl, Ruggero, Liberty Heights, Shivaji, and Travesura.

The End

Caterpillar

1/31  Heard My Plea

4:19 p.m. Looks like Mirco has heard my plea, he barely made it to 3rd place in Silkroad Stakes. Good enough for me, I have no complaints whatsoever. Though the fact that Shivaji and Right on Cue did well seems to put the spotlight on how the track condition was power-consuming. This would give us a clue when calling Takamatsuno-miya Kinen.

As for Negishi Stakes, I don't think today's results would automatically reflect on February Stakes, since the two races have different characteristsics. I'm not sure if Red le Zele has the potential to win a G1, but he might perform well on Tokyo mile judging from his pedigree background, if not better.

The End

Caterpillar