9:09 p.m. The reason why Kita-kyushu Kinen seems like a good trial race is because this race almost always run at a tight pace.

When you look at the past ten years' results, you cann see that all ten years have been run at a tight lap, regardless of the track condition. So all I have to do is to analyze the past high performers and find out the horses that should do well this year.

The date of the race, though has changed since last year and I'm not sure how that would effect the results. The step races also change according to the change in the race date, so the past step races would be of no help.

Just like treating my tendonitis, it's easier said than done.

The End

Caterpillar

9:39 p.m. Trying to figure out the patterns of high-performing three-year-olds.

Basically, the three-year-olds should be advantaged since Kita-kyushu Kinen could be their first grade race racing against older horses, which means they could fully use the benefit of their freshness. However, some of the challengers in the past have benn bounced of the high wall of a G3 race mixed with older horses. These seem to be the horses that had already been burnt out before running Kita-kyushu Kinen.

The hard part it seems, is where to draw the line between a three-year-old that still have energy to fight against stronger competitors in tougher conditions and a three-year-old that has already reached its prime.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Umapyoi Legend English version seens to have been released on YouTube today. I haven't played Umamusume just watched a few seasons on anime, but if it leads to increasing horse racing fans, I'm not against it (I rather like the tune, too). Also, the voice actors have all done a great job singing in English and I'm proud of their professionalism. The characters that appeared in the anime were pretty much exaggerated (take Gold Ship for example), though I don't mind if these characters become entrances to trigger interest on the real legendary horses.

Meanwhile the entry for Kita-kyushu Kinen has been closed when I still can't make heads or tails of the horses that might perform well. The three-year-olds entered this year all seem too risky to my eyes, so I've turned to analyzing older horses however, haven't been able to get any clues yet except that a horse needs to have resistance to a tight-lapped sprint race.

The End

Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and announced since it was Friday today.

Currently, the top three favored in expected win odds are Lord Four Aces, Yoshino Easter, and Abu Qir Bay and all of them have drawn outer posts. Horses starting from outer posts haven't been performing very well in the past ten years. The horses that finished above third place starting from outer posts have all lost below third place in their previous races, except for Jasper Krone and Namura Clair. Lord Four Aces and Yoshino Easter both ran in Shunrai Stakes finishing second and first, respectively. It would be hard to decide whether to keep them or not.

On the other hand, Abu Qir Bay has also won in her previous race, Aoi Stakes. She's also a three-year-old, which I think is risky. I'm trembling with fear.

The End

Caterpillar

8:27 p.m. To be honest, I have absolutely no confidence at all.

I thought that the inner post drawers would be advantaged considering the course as well as the track condition however, the final race of Kokura today showed a different result. I won't be surprised, though if front runners dominated the top three tomorrow. It's the summer Kokura without a reliable three-year-old, anything could happen.

So I tried to choose a horse as dependable as possible to key, Yamanin al Rihla, hoping he would somehow finish to win the first, second or third prize.

The horses to put on the wheel could change later, but for now I've got Mozu Mei Mei, Meisho Sorafune, Craspedia, Drop of Light, Lord Four Aces and Yoshino Easter on my mind.

The End

Caterpillar

8:02 p.m. Aaaaargh! I've done a terrible blunder with a two-choice situation!

First, I've chosen Craspedia instead of Abu Qir Bay, because I thought Abu Qir Bay must have had some damage from her previous race, Aoi-sho. But then, Aoi-sho was her first race coming back from a short break after Margaret Stakes, which means her damage hadn't piled up yet. Moreover, she was a female horse that relatively performs better in Kita-kyushu Kinen, carrying only 53kg, the second lightest weight in this race. In addition, young horses are generally more resistant against damage however, I completely forgot to take that into account.

The second terrible choice was that I couldn't make up my mind between Lord Four Aces and Yoshino Easter that I bought them both. Now that I'm calm enough to see the big picture, I had to choose from the two since it was only one of them that would perform well. If I was taking Yoshino Easter, I had to delete Lord Four Aces.

Being such a wimp, I've let 16,080 yen pass by.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Putting the past behind, let me start reviewing Tanabata-sho.

As I've already mentioned last year, Fukushima turf 2000m has a long straight at the beginning stretching as far as nearly 500 meters running downhill from the start. This means that the pace of Tanabata-sho rarely drops to slow.

So it's either going to flow at average pace giving benefit to the front runners or at a tight pace where the trailers charge up the homestretch from the outside. Thanks for the helpful clues, last year's me.

Either way, the race tends to have a monotonous property despite being 2000 meters, with horses having European pedigree background as well as long-lasting speed mostly dominating the podium for the past ten years.

I've won the trio last year, let's win it for the second time this year.

The End

Caterpillar

9:28 p.m. I don't know what went wrong but my Windows11 Notepad has been switching the file type even while I'm writing. I'm trying to be careful not to touch the control key or function key while I'm writing, but it's pretty much annoying especially when I don't know what is causing this situation. I never asked for it, you know?

I want to avoid the aforementioned keys to stay on the safe side since the shift key is so close to them (actually, it's right above Ctrl and Fn), but then I'll have to use the shift key on my right-hand side, which is also located above a Ctrl key. Plus, my right hand hurts when I try to hit those keys wit my pinky. Dran!

Frustrating situation, but I've dug up some more clues from my notes on Tanabata-sho last night. That's a bit cheering for now. Will need to do some research to see whether I could trust those clues or not. Let's see what I can come up with tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

9:56 p.m. My clients are asking too much of me and I've been working my ass off all afternoon. There's still so much to do left, but I'm working hard now in order to make time later.

Since I've been busy working, I haven't been able to gather evidence of my notes from last year's Tanabata-sho. I apologize that I can't write any new information. My right hand is aching and there's a mosquito flying in this room, tsk!

Tomorrow. Hopefully, tomorrow I can get down to some searching.

The End

Caterpillar

8:51 p.m. While the forecast made threats with heavy rain warnings, I made some progress with my research on Tanabata-sho. I wouldn't say I'm fully prepared, but I was able to collect some information that I was seeking for.

From the information I dug up, I reaknowledged myself that there were many horses that have just been back from a short break in the high-performers of this race. Relaxing racing schedules are important when it comes to reducing stress and damage of the competitors. There were horses in the past that performed well with shorter intervals however, they all seemed to have come up with racing plans skllfully avoiding damage, such as running a dirt race, shorter distance, or in alower category.

The End

Caterpillar

9:43 p.m. Worked hard again after coming home from a visit to the clinic to pick up some medicine. Just checked the barriers of Tanabata-sho.

Cosmo Fliegen is supposed to take the lead, according to a few predictions, so it would be up to other front runners whether the pace gets tight or not. I don't see any runaways apart from Cosmo Fliegen that might want to take on a fierce battle of leading the field, but you never know until the race actually runs.

After all, it's Tanabata-sho, and the race doesn't go wild without a reason.

The End

Caterpillar

9:40 p.m. Messages coming in one after another while I'm desperately trying to figure out what could happen in Tanabata-sho tomorrow.

One thing I know is that current Fukushima turf demands power and stamina. The finishing record for today's Fukushima turf races were significantly slower than last year's. So I did my best in picking up horses with less damage as well as having either power or stamina at the same time.

Right now I'm thinking of keying Balaji on a wheel of Cosmo Fliegen, Nishino Revenant, Shonan Magma, Parallel Vision, and Seven Magician. I have no confidence whatsoever, though I picked these horses on the premise that it's going to be a wild race.

Just to let you know, I might skip writing tomorrow depending on my schedule.

The End

Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. Sorry for skipping yesterday, I just couldn't make the time to write and upload. Disappointed I was, too about Tanabata-sho.

First of all, I should have keyed Cosmo Fliegen instead of Balaji, since Cosmo was sure to go up front even if some other horse challenged him to take the lead, whereas Balaji was assumed to gradually raise the position. In fact, Balaji took a bad position during the race and with Duradores pulling up beside, Balaji couldn't move untilbeing swung outside at the last corner to make a wide space on its right, letting Onyankopon take advantage of that space and break through.

I can accept the performance of Duradores as she had the potential to win a grade race. But Onyankopon? The only reason I could think of for Onyankopon to have performed well in Tanabata-sho is the power-consuming turf topped up with the tight lap.

Who said it was going to be a slow pace, anyway? Whoever did should pay the price for what they said.

The End

Caterpillar

6:41 p.m. No matter how many races you lose, you just have to face it and carry on so let's start thinking about Kokura Kinen.

These XX-Kinen races have been quite confusing lately, running on courses different from the race title. Kokura Kinen was one of those races last year when it was held at Chukyo although the race name contained Kokura.

And just as I felt relief that Kokura Kinen is now safely back at Kokura, I noticed an important thing concerning the track condition of Kokura. The turf is demanding more power than usual.

Come to think of it, Kita-Kyushu Kinen held on the week before last had finished in 1 minute, 7.8 seconds on firm track whereas it annually ends in the lower 7 seconds, sometimes even more fast unless the track softens with rain. Additionally, Kita-Kyushu Kinen has been held on the second week after the opening of Kokura races since last year, while it had been run on the third week of August until 2023.

The End

Caterpillar

8:51 p.m. Taking into account that Kokura turf is power-demanding, perhaps I should choose horses with King Mambo sirelines. It makes me feel like I'm doing Tanabata-sho all over again, since the course features are alike while the turf condition is similarly power-consuming.

On the contrary, Hakodate's turf where Hakodate 2-sai Stakes will be held on has been quite firm and fast with records broken every week, although it used to be known as time-consuming turf because of the kind of grass grown on the course.

Well, things might change in Hakodate after having some rain brought by typhoon Nari. Typhoons rarely landed on Hokkaido and records were rarely broken on Hakodate turf. I don't know what's going on these days.

The End

Caterpillar

8:03 p.m. Fighting sleepiness with all my might after finishing a meeting with a client.

As Written yesterday, basically I'm htinking of calling Kokura Kinen with the same stance as Tanabata-sho except fot the point that the past high-peerformers in this race mostly have either extended the distance or run the same distance in their step races before Kokura Kinen.

No, wait.

If the turf is power-consuming like that of Tanabata-sho, shouldn't I choose horses shortening the distance from their previous race to supplement stamina? But then, when I reflect on the results of Tanabata-sho, Cosmo Fliegen was the only one of the top three finishers that ran in a longer distance in his previous race, which was nearly three months before Tanabata-sho. Perhaps I should care more about the intervals than the distance?

The End

Caterpillar

8:42 p.m. As it's a Friday, the barriers for Kokura Kinen has been drawn and released. But I haven't done anything yet! It's been another busy week.

Three potential front runners have drawn outer posts, which combined with the course feature might create a tight pace. If the pace gets tight, the trailers charging up from the outside will generally have the advantage. Such trailers, though could finish their races in the back of the field when the turf is power-consuming.

If the pace settles at average, the front runners will have the advantage just like Cosmo Fliegen in Tanabata-sho.

So, who'd be the next Cosmo Flliegen?

The End

Caterpillar

9:17 p.m. Fighting sleepiness as usual while whipping up my brains to work.

I'm not sure whether the pace would be tight or average, but I feel like it's going to be a match between horses that come from behind after watching today's Kokura Races. It seemed to be more difficult for front runners to hang in, perhaps because of the power-consuming turf.

So these are the candidates for Kokura Kinen left on my list at the moment: Meliorem, Meiner Memory, All Saints, Las Cumbres, Licancabur, and Deep Monster. Might delete Licancabur if I decided he's still not fit enough to win.

Okay now, let me get on with picking a horse to key.

The End

Caterpillar

8:33 p.m. The biggest mistake was that I'd weighed horses running grade races previously more heavily than horses from lower class races. It didn't hit me that sometimes evaluation could switch between the two. Plus, Kokura Kinen was a handicapped race!

I cut Meliorem in the end but couldn't get rid of Licancabur from fear he might suddenly perform a dramatic comeback. How wimpy! If I'd had the guts to cut Licancabur too, perhaps I was able to reach England Eyes.

The End

Caterpillar

8:40 p.m. Okay, so we bid farewell to Kokura, Hakodate and are moving on to the burning summer Niigata, Chukyo, and Sapporo.

Now again, there's the question of which race to choose, a mile race on the opening week of Niigata or a renewed seven-furlongs dirt race at Chukyo?

I'll have to start on the research anyway, but the thing is that I don't think I could win either of them in my current state. I need to get a grip on myself but the environment doesn't seem to let me.

Who wants to work that hard in this heat? Don't you think it's inefficient working in this heat? I've worked hard all my life, it's time I got released.

The End

Caterpillar

8:27 p.m. Sorry for skipping yesterday. I had an unavoidable matter going on. Additionally, a new project has started today and for the next few months I could get busy depending on how it proceeds. Just as I said I didn't want to work that hard, tsk.

As for the weekend races, I'm thinking of taking Sekiya Kinen. It should be better than challenging a renewed grade race blindly.

The End

Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. Since Sekiya Kinen is held on the opening week of summer Niigata, it tends to become a speed race with the winning record ranging from the high in 1 minute 31 seconds to the low in 33 seconds, which was run on good to firm condition.

The pace rarely gets tight so the front runners have the advantage, though it's not easy to hit wire to wire (although Tudo de Bom has done it last year, there must have been a difference in ability as he won by one and a half kengths). The long straight at the beginning might help runaways to get up to speed smoothly, but the longest homestretch in all JRA courses will stand in their way while horses from behind charge at them at once.

Looks like linear speed is essential.

The End

Caterpillar

9:01 p.m. It's Friday and the result of the barrier draws have been announced. Since my schedule easily gets messed up toward the weekend, this time I whipped up myself to start things early.

From the line-up of Sekiya Kinen, it doesn't look like the pace would be tight. So the inner post drawers will have the advantage except for front runners. Therefore, I'm not thinking of buying outer post starters that can't go up front.

Haven't decided what to do with Bong Girl yet. Maybe I'll decide after checking the Niigata turf races tomorrow. My interest (at this point) is on Regalo del Cielo.

The End

Caterpillar

9:19 p.m. The heat is getting full-fledged and another battle called heatrash has been added to the several battles I'm already fighting against. I've barely been holding out with body sheets but this was the furthest I got. We're still in July while forecasters are threatening us Tokyoites with a high of 38 degrees next week, ugh.

It must also be burning in Niigata since JRA has changed the racing shedule for this summer so that Niigata races would be run avoiding the hottest time of the day from twelve noon to three in the afternoon. The races that originally were supposed to run during that time will be moved later with the last race running from 6:25 p.m.

The current candidates of Sekiya Kinen remaining on my list are Off Trail, Regalo del Cielo, Tranquillite, Kana Tape, Fortune Time and Arsenaal. Key horse? Arsenall at the moment.

The End

Caterpillar

8:43 p.m. I did think there may be a chance for Sekiya Kinen to flow at a regular pace, but I didn't expect it to have a record finish.

Not to mention, I picked the wrong horse to key again. I knew Arsenaal won't stand a chance if the pace didn't drop, so I should have keyed Kana Tape on quinellas to hedge my bet. It's all my fault as I didn't key lady King.

The End

Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. This week I have to choose between Ibis Summer Dash (Niigata) and Queen Stakes (Sapporo). Currently leaning to Queen Stakes.

One reason is not just because I've never won Ibis Summer Dash, the summer sprint race without corners, but I'm not sure how to call it besides betting on horses that drew outer posts. Perhaps I could give it a try by finding horses that perform better in a monotonous pace? That sounds like there's a lot of work to be done.

Secondly, Queen Stakes this year has a chance to run with a full field. It has run with smaller fields of horses for the past ten years with the maximum only reaching 14 however, 21 female horses are entered this year as of today.

I don't remember winning Queen Stakes either, though.

The End

Caterpillar

7:17 p.m. Steaming hot here in Tokyo. Trying to convince myself it is worth working even in this heat.

Checking out the past results of Queen Stakes. Basically, the pace doesn't get so tight thanks to the course layout with short straights. The finishing record has been pretty fast in the recent years, though the last three furlong has taken close to 35 seconds. That seems to explain why relatively powerful horses are performing well. I'll have to see if they performed well on soft tracks later.

The choice of 3-year-olds could become the key in winning as they would be advantaged in the weight they carry. So I'm trying to figure out what would draw the line between a promising 3-year-old and an unlikely 3-year-old.

Or on a second thought, maybe I should simply buy Lesedrama as lady Rachel King is riding?

The End

Caterpillar