8:46 p.m. Aw, Satono Shinig was so close! If only Ho O Atman hadn't ran up beside him! The world-class Yutaka rode Satono Shining so well and if the horse hadn't taken the bit to lose his rythm when Ho O Atman came up to catch him, there may have been a chance to finish third, or even second.

The pace was slightly slower than Satsuki-sho, but the flow of the race was very much alike. The situation didn't give any benefit to Giovanni, an Epiphaneia descendant, which also might have been the result of Ho O Atman running up against Satono Shining. Giovanni and Museum Mile were very nervous too, so they didn't stand a chance in a race that needed patience as well as control.

Obviously, I'm in a bad cycle. I need to get ou of it somehow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. I know something's got to be done to get out of the bad cycle I'm in, though not quite sure what. Perhaps if I knew what the weather would be like earlier, that might help. But then, the forecast is as unreliable as usual not saying clearly whether it will rain or not on Sunday.

Sunday's weather is said to be cloudy at the moment however, the chance of rain is shown as 40%. The result of Yasuda Kinen could change depending on the track condition you know?

Guess I'll just have to consider all possible cases. That would take time and energy, ugh.

The End

Caterpillar

9:14 p.m. While the weather is still uncertain, let me organize my thoughts a bit.

There doesn't seem to be a horse that defintely wants to take the lead and there aren't many front runners either. It's likely for the pace to settle for average or slow. If so, horses that performed well in their previous races would have the advantage. Horses that have been losing race after race consecutively won't stand a chance.

Annually, Yasuda Kinen has been a repeater-friendly race, though I'm not sure if Soul Rush can perform well this year. Not after that fierce match against Romatic Warrier in Dubai Turf.

The End

Caterpillar

8:36 p.m. So the entry for Yasuda Kinen has been closed while my online meeting was being canceled at the last minute.

The weather seems to hold for Sunday, so I guess I could think that Yasuda Kinen would be run on a firm track. The base course has been hard throughout the third Tokyo racing period regardless of the turf condition, so it might lead to a record-breaking finish time, even with the inner part of the course damaged around the third and last corner.

The fast track condition might become a blessing for horses like Brede Weg or Mad Cool.

Let's wait and see what the barrier draw would be like.

The End

Caterpillar

8:40 p.m. The smell of smoke from a mosquito coil is telling me that summer is coming even before the rainy season. And the barriers have been announced.

I was secretly hoping Brede Weg would draw an inner post. On the contrary, she drew not just an outer post but the outmost post! Unless iit becomes a tight-lapped race with a track bias that benefits outer post starters fiercely, she's doomed.

The End

Caterpillar

9:47 p.m. Sorry for lagging every week for the past couple of months. I'm still in the middle of thinking, but will upload my current conclusion just for your information, which probably won't help much.

Have just come down to about half and the horses remaiining are Sixpence, Mad Cool, Jantar Mantar, Sakura Toujours, Soul Rush, Water Licht, Trovatore, and Jun Blossom, of which Sixpence, Trovatore, and Jun Blossom I'd like to delete somehow.

Sakura Toujuours is also troubling in the sense that I don't want to keep, but can't easily let go. Or maybe I should keep Long Run instead as he's starting from post number 12? Am I too obsessed with post number 12?

The End

Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Gaia Force... after two years you come back second.

The race results of today and yesterday showed that the front runners were advantaged as well as inner post starters, so I put my hopes on Mad Cool and Win Marvel, which was entertaining until halfway down the homestretch. What happened to Sixpence by the way? He was keeping the best position sticking to the rail?

After all, the turf has been dug so much while the base course was firm that it became closer to a dirt course. The top three finishers today are horses that could perform well on dirt courses, not just turf.

The End

Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. While I've been desperately struggling to keep up with my daily tasks, it's already time for Takaraduka Kinen again. Time flies, doesn't it?

Looking back, last year Takaraduka Kinen was held at Kyoto on muddy track resulting in a success for possibly the top three soft track specialists, Blow the Horn, Sol Oriens, and Bellagio Opera. This year, things would be quite different from last year I assume.

For one thing, the race will get back to Hanshin where it had been held all along until last year. Hanshin is a characteristic course as I always say. It demands speed, power, enduring strength, and it's frendly to front runners. What's asked for in order to perform well is different from that on Kyoto turf.

Another thing is that whilst only 13 horses ran last year, there are 18 entered this year. The number of horses running in a race is also an important factor that could change the results.

The End

Caterpillar

8:19 p.m. As you know, I haven't been winning for a while and I felt it was necessary to change something. I decided to take things one at a time. Let me start from thinking about the possibility of the competitors of Takaraduka Kinen one by one. I'm not sure if I could finish evaluating all of them by Saturday, but I'll give it a try anyway.

Let me start from the most favored in expected win odds, Bellagio Opera. Getting straight to the point, I think Mr. Bellagio is risky. Last year, he finished third after winning Osaka-hai, though that was on soft, Kyoto turf and the pace was slow in both Osaka-hai and Takaraduka. I'm afraid things are different this year, even if there was some rain to soften the track. It's likely that he would degrade his performance from Osaka-hai.

As for the second-favored Lord del Rey, he might keep his performance depending on the track condition and the barrier he draws.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. The third favored in expected win odds as of today is Regaleira.

It's not just that Regaleira is coming back from a fraction that worries me, but also that she's always raised her performance by extending the distance. Takaraduka Kinen would be her first race this year since last year's Arima Kinen meaning, that it would be shortening the distance to 2200m. It's likely that Regaleira would drop her position during the race, which could be critical on a front-runner-friendly Hanshin course, though it also could turn out on the bright side when the pace gets tight.

Another concerning thing is that she's only won on courses with tight corners such as Hakodate or Nakayama. Besides, Arima Kinen was extremely slow and I'm afraid Regaleira would be quite overwhelmed even at an average pace.

With so many cause of concerns, I'd rather say "nay" for Regaleira knowing that female horses are doing well in Takaraduka Kinen.

Urban Chic is untrustworthy as well since the horse is hard to control. At least, having Christophe as the rider is somewhat comforting. Problems involving transport must have been cleared at the time of Kikka-sho, so we'll need to wait for the barrier draw to ponder further.

The End

Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. The barriers have been drawn. It looks like Danon Beluga has scratched off and Damian is going to ride Chuck Nate instead. Not sure what exactly happened to Danon Beluga, but something must have happened after the workout.

If Durezza doesn't insist, the pace won't be so tight, I suppose. If he does, then it's going to be tight. And if the pace gets tight, perhaps Lord del Rey would have his chance to win this time. Meanwhile, front runners like Durezza or Meisho Tabaru won't be happy I suppose, no matter how friendly this course might be.

It's usually the trailers starting from outer posts that would reap the benefits when the pace gets tight.

The End

Caterpillar

8:56 p.m. Oh, god. Meisho Tabaru is pushed up to the third favored in win odds. There must have been a large bet. I guess that isn't so strange considering the weather. The forecast is predicting full-fledged rain around Hanshin Racing Course tomorrow, and it's likely that the rain would remain until Sunday morning.

If the track turns out to be soft, it could surely be a plus point for Meisho Tabaru. His previous race in which he lost in fifth place was Dubai Turf. The race started at a relaxing pace speeding up rapidly in the later half, finishing in a deadheat between Soul Rush and Romantic Warrior. It wasn't a race for a horse like Tabaru.

Meanwhile, Regaleira has jumped up to the most favored in win odds. Mr. Bellagio has been disregarded. Regaleira too, must have been placed a huge bet, which is interesting in the sense that someone somewhere is thinking that she would win.

Let me think things over again.

The End

Caterpillar

9:50 p.m. You may be tired of hearing my apologies by now, but I will apologize anyway for being late again as well as not being prepared.

I have changed measures when calling a bit so as to win the last spring G1, Takaraduka Kinen. It has been getting me confused while I deleted horses with less possibilities up until Yasuda Kinen, and since it also consumed a lot of time, I decided to try things the other way. In other words, I crossed out all the horses at the start this time to pick up only the ones that might have a chance in certain conditions.

Enough with the lecture. The horses currently remaining are Bellagio Opera, Chuck Nate, Lord del Rey, Durezza, Sol Oriens, and Meisho Tabaru.

I'm thinking of betting in formation, though haven't yet decided whether it should be trio or trifecta. If I'm forced to say, perhaps I might key Sol Oriens in case I'm betting on a wheel. Will skip tomorrow as Mr. N-jima is coming again BTW.

The End

Caterpillar

8:52 p.m. The truth hits hard that I've only won one race during this spring season. Terrible.

Maybe I should take a break from calling races. I know that but I just can't seem to quit. Perhaps I'm addicted.

I understand, though that I should take some time away from the races to see what I'm missing. Let me give myself some more time o decide what to do.

The End

Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. Have come up with a couple of reasons that caused me to lose big this season.

First of all, I didn't have much time to spare on races. As a matter of fact, I did have more time than last year, I must have had it. But then, I always ran out of it unable to think out until I reached a plausible conclusion. Resultingly, I settled for makeshift options feeling uneasy that something wasn't right.

I also didn't have time to review each race in detail that I made multiple regretful mistakes in the weeks that followed.

Making clear why I ran out of time though I actually had more time compared to last year will be my first step towards improvement.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. Was there a green belt? I came across someone's blog saying that there's been a relatively well-conditioned belt of turf appearing along the rail at Hanshin last week. The blog said that runaways performed well on the day of Takaraduka Kinen taking advantage of this so-called green belt, while the trailers trying to take over from the outside were disadvantaged.

Green belts usually appear at the opening of each racing course when the turf has fully recuperated after the previous races. Hanshin races have just started from the 7th of June, so there's no surprise if there actually was a green belt, though I personally think the runaways were doing well because of the soft track condition, rather than the track bias. If the track had been biased, there should have been more wins earned by horses taking the lead on the opening week.

It's important to have suspicious eyes, though.

The End

Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. Haven't decided whether or not to bet on races this weekend, though races will be run as usual. Tokyo is having its last week before the summer races until the beginning of October, which means that Fuchu Hinba Stakes wil be the last grade race run on Tokyo turf this season.

Unfortunately, Fuchu Hinba Stakes has been renewed this year and moved to the last week of the spring races from the second week of October when it has annually been held. Considering the current track condition, I'm afraid it has become a completely different race from the Fuchu Hinba we know. Horses might even need more stamina as the race will be run on the outmost D course this year, while it was formerly ran on the innermost A course. According to the course stats on JRA's official website, the distance gap between the two will be approximatly, 56 meters.

That may be nothing to horses, but it won't be good news to front runners like Ascoltiamo or Lavanda.

The End

Caterpillar

9:16 p.m. Hanshin is also having an unfamiliar race named Shirasagi Stakes (G3). It was originally Yonago Stakes (open class) but have been upgraded to a G3 aiming to support the summer mile series.

I understand that, but is this race worth running carrying heavy weight? Cervinia is charged with 57kg, Lebensstil with 59. I wonder if it's worth running risking injury?

It's also going to be the last week for Hanshin and the course would change from Course A where Takaraduka Kinen was run last week to Course B. Thus, whether there had been a green belt or not won't matter anymore.

The End

Caterpillar

9:07 p.m. I've been busy filing a bridge saddle for my guitar and haven't had the time to look into neither of the two grade races, Fuchu Hinba Stakes nor Shirasagi Stakes. I was going to save up playing the guitar again for my post-retirement hobby, but was suddenly forced to change my plans. My old guitar needed some repairing, so I'd got the necessary things ready and got to work. Unfortunately, I've developed tendonitis in my right hand about a month ago, and the task is taking pain as well as time.

Since I'm unprepared, I'm not thining of buying betting tickets this weekend. If I were to buy them, though I'd probably go for Fuhu Hinba. It depends on which horse takes the lead, but unless Ascoltiamo runs away at a slow pace, the most favored Canicule could vanish.

I would want to bet on trailers starting from inner posts however, they seem to be umpromising so perhaps I'd buy a wheel keying Tagano Elpida.

Oh no, I'm afraid I might be buying betting tickets tomorrow before I know it.

The End

Caterpillar

9:26 p.m. Eventually, I didn't buy betting tickets today as I had other things to prioritize, such as voting, repairing my guitar, and some shopping to care for my tendonitis.

With a few hours of hard work I finished repairing my guitar. The tuning is still unstable but it shall settle in a couple of weeks. I still have my desktop keyboard to fix, though. The enter key hasn't been working well recently that sometimes I'm changing lines endlessly without my knowing.

Tagano Elpida who attracted my attention has unfortunately sunk in fifth place while Umbrail, which I almost bought its show ticket lost in fourth place by a neck. If I'd bought betting tickets, it must have been quite paiful despite hte expected loss of Canicule.

This is exactly where I'm stumbling, so I'm hoping I can make enough time this week to go through a thorough check of what I'm doing wrong before the full-fledged summer races begin.

The End

Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. And so the summer grade races are starting from this week. I haven't fixed my keyboard yet from fear that the rubber dome under the enter key could be in bigger size than the other alphabet keys.

A typhoon is brewing in the southern sea and because it could stimulate the rain front, there might be heavy rain in Hakodate or Fukushima where this week's grade races are held. Therefore, I think I should wait until the weekend to dig into weather information.

Let me start from reviewing the features of Hakodate Kinen held at Hakodate, one of the most famous grade races that goes wild almost every year.

Hakodate is a typical local course that has tight corners, thus inner post starters having advantage. Horses starting from outer posts need to go up front to gain a goo position if they want to finish above third place. Actually, there was a time in the past ten years when Admire Justa won turning the last corner asthe sixth from the leading horse, though that should be concidered as an exception, I reckon.

The End

Caterpillar

9:08 p.m. Because Hakodate turf 2000m starts from a side track, the distance of the long straight from the starting gates results in 476m, long enough to get up to speed that Hakodate Kinen rarely runs at a slow pace. Either it runs at tight lap or average, there are two things that stay unchanged. One, that the property of the race will become monotonous and two, that the last three furlongs would take over 35 seconds.

What I can say from these facts are that I should choose the kind of horses that have performed better in monotonous races taking more than 35 seconds for the last threee furlongs.

Another important point is not to trust the odds-on favorite. After all, the average pay-out for win tickets of the past 10 years is 7,730 yen.

The End

Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. Now let's look at Radio NIKKEI-sho, a seasonal race at the beginning of summer limited only to three-year-olds.

As it's a 1800m race on Fukushima turf where the circuit distance is the smallest of all JRA courses, the property of the race tends to get monotonous with runaways making to the podium quite often. In the past 10 years, there were six times when horses that took the lead finished above third place.

I got curious and tried to figure out if there were any differences between runaways that perform well and those that don't. I'm not sure what it means but I discovered something. The six leading horses that finished above third place in the past ten years had all won a 1-win class while horses that sank below fourth place hadn't. Note that it has to be a 1-win class, not grade races, listed class, nor open class.

Hmm, interesting. I wonder if there's any horse that meets this condition this year?

The End

Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. The entry hava been closed for the weekend races, so let's see if there are any promising front runners entered in Radio NIKKEI-sho.

As a matter of fact, there are several horses that might take the lead. After all, they're all three-year-olds, which means that their racing style hasn't been established yet.

Among the five horses that might want to run away, A O King and Shonan Macbeth are likely to drop their positions because they are shortening the distance from their previous races. As for the remaining three horses, the only horse that has won a 1-win class is Tres Saphir.

Let me check A O King and Shona Macbeth too, just in case. Oh, Shonan Macbeth has also won a 1-win class. It depends on several other conditions, but Shonan Macbeth seem more likely to perform well at this point.

The End

Caterpillar

9:03 p.m. The barriers have been drawn for both grade races Hakodate Kinen and Radio NIKKEi-sho.

Hakodate seems to have had quite a lot of precipitaion from Thursday. The forecast says Saturday and Sunday will be sunny, though the track condition is concerning. The pace Auswahl leads would be average, I assume.

As for Radio NIKKEI-sho, the two runaways formerly mentioned both drew outer posts. Considering Shonan Macbeth has drawn the outmost post, perhaps Tsumura might want to take the lead more badly than Yokoyama Sr. riding Tres Saphir.

Fukushima's turf seems to be in very good condition, BTW.

The End

Caterpillar

9:11 p.m. I've taken different measures to narrow down my candidates for Hakodate Kinen this week. It isn't a big-field race, and I've come down to five horses at the moment, and their names are Meiner Mond, Hayatenofukunosuke, Born This Way, Gran Dia, and Top Knife.

Oh, no. Hayatenofukunosuke is the most favored!? I thought Hayate wouldn't be so favored! I mean, shouldn't Al Nseem be more favored than Hayate? He's already won a G3 with Nakayama Kinpai? Ah, the 59kg weight made him unpopular.

Well, I don't intend to bet on the most favored whichever horse it is. Let me condsider switching Hayatenofukunosuke with Makoto Velikij, because of being too favored as well as having a name too long. It kind of annoys me when I have to type long names with my aching wrist.

Will start thinking about Radio NIKKEI-sho from now.

The End

Caterpillar

7:56 p.m. I was expecting an average pace with all the furlongs run in alost the same lap so I'd put all my bet on the frot runners that shall perform well in such a pace and then it turns out to be a tight-lapped record finish. There's no way I could have won since my horses were mostly extending the distance from their previous races in order to go up front smoothly, while the top two finishers o Hakodate Kinen both had been shortening the distances.

Shorteing distances, as I've mentioned before, has the effect of supplying stamina, which makes a perfect boost for a race like today; tight lapped race on a tough but fast turf.

To make my bad feeling worse, Hayatenofukunosuke which I avoided because of being the most favored in win odds yesterday, has finished in second while suddenly losing his popularity overnight to drop from the most favored to the sixth. He really annoys me.

At least I found a stretches that might reduce the pain and improve my tendonitis. That's one hopeful news.

The End

Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. In fact, it's pretty hard to guess what the pace may be like in a race, almost impossible. However, it's one of the main, mots important factors when calling a race, which also affects the results. Having the dilenma of unable to predict yet unavoidavle when calling, I've been struggling with pace for so long now.

It takes too much time and cost to prepare three patterns of candidate horses according to each pace, in other words high, average, slow. But then if I take my chances on a particular pace, the losses pile up. What could be done?

It may be better to choose the races that I can narrow the down the pace say, from the course features, the race settings such as distance, and the lineup of the horses running. This week's Kita-kyushu Kinen should make a good trial in that sense.

The End

Caterpillar