8:46 p.m. Aw, Satono Shinig was so close! If only Ho O Atman hadn't ran up beside him! The world-class Yutaka rode Satono Shining so well and if the horse hadn't taken the bit to lose his rythm when Ho O Atman came up to catch him, there may have been a chance to finish third, or even second.

The pace was slightly slower than Satsuki-sho, but the flow of the race was very much alike. The situation didn't give any benefit to Giovanni, an Epiphaneia descendant, which also might have been the result of Ho O Atman running up against Satono Shining. Giovanni and Museum Mile were very nervous too, so they didn't stand a chance in a race that needed patience as well as control.

Obviously, I'm in a bad cycle. I need to get ou of it somehow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. I know something's got to be done to get out of the bad cycle I'm in, though not quite sure what. Perhaps if I knew what the weather would be like earlier, that might help. But then, the forecast is as unreliable as usual not saying clearly whether it will rain or not on Sunday.

Sunday's weather is said to be cloudy at the moment however, the chance of rain is shown as 40%. The result of Yasuda Kinen could change depending on the track condition you know?

Guess I'll just have to consider all possible cases. That would take time and energy, ugh.

The End

Caterpillar

9:14 p.m. While the weather is still uncertain, let me organize my thoughts a bit.

There doesn't seem to be a horse that defintely wants to take the lead and there aren't many front runners either. It's likely for the pace to settle for average or slow. If so, horses that performed well in their previous races would have the advantage. Horses that have been losing race after race consecutively won't stand a chance.

Annually, Yasuda Kinen has been a repeater-friendly race, though I'm not sure if Soul Rush can perform well this year. Not after that fierce match against Romatic Warrier in Dubai Turf.

The End

Caterpillar

8:36 p.m. So the entry for Yasuda Kinen has been closed while my online meeting was being canceled at the last minute.

The weather seems to hold for Sunday, so I guess I could think that Yasuda Kinen would be run on a firm track. The base course has been hard throughout the third Tokyo racing period regardless of the turf condition, so it might lead to a record-breaking finish time, even with the inner part of the course damaged around the third and last corner.

The fast track condition might become a blessing for horses like Brede Weg or Mad Cool.

Let's wait and see what the barrier draw would be like.

The End

Caterpillar

8:40 p.m. The smell of smoke from a mosquito coil is telling me that summer is coming even before the rainy season. And the barriers have been announced.

I was secretly hoping Brede Weg would draw an inner post. On the contrary, she drew not just an outer post but the outmost post! Unless iit becomes a tight-lapped race with a track bias that benefits outer post starters fiercely, she's doomed.

The End

Caterpillar

9:47 p.m. Sorry for lagging every week for the past couple of months. I'm still in the middle of thinking, but will upload my current conclusion just for your information, which probably won't help much.

Have just come down to about half and the horses remaiining are Sixpence, Mad Cool, Jantar Mantar, Sakura Toujours, Soul Rush, Water Licht, Trovatore, and Jun Blossom, of which Sixpence, Trovatore, and Jun Blossom I'd like to delete somehow.

Sakura Toujuours is also troubling in the sense that I don't want to keep, but can't easily let go. Or maybe I should keep Long Run instead as he's starting from post number 12? Am I too obsessed with post number 12?

The End

Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Gaia Force... after two years you come back second.

The race results of today and yesterday showed that the front runners were advantaged as well as inner post starters, so I put my hopes on Mad Cool and Win Marvel, which was entertaining until halfway down the homestretch. What happened to Sixpence by the way? He was keeping the best position sticking to the rail?

After all, the turf has been dug so much while the base course was firm that it became closer to a dirt course. The top three finishers today are horses that could perform well on dirt courses, not just turf.

The End

Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. While I've been desperately struggling to keep up with my daily tasks, it's already time for Takaraduka Kinen again. Time flies, doesn't it?

Looking back, last year Takaraduka Kinen was held at Kyoto on muddy track resulting in a success for possibly the top three soft track specialists, Blow the Horn, Sol Oriens, and Bellagio Opera. This year, things would be quite different from last year I assume.

For one thing, the race will get back to Hanshin where it had been held all along until last year. Hanshin is a characteristic course as I always say. It demands speed, power, enduring strength, and it's frendly to front runners. What's asked for in order to perform well is different from that on Kyoto turf.

Another thing is that whilst only 13 horses ran last year, there are 18 entered this year. The number of horses running in a race is also an important factor that could change the results.

The End

Caterpillar

8:19 p.m. As you know, I haven't been winning for a while and I felt it was necessary to change something. I decided to take things one at a time. Let me start from thinking about the possibility of the competitors of Takaraduka Kinen one by one. I'm not sure if I could finish evaluating all of them by Saturday, but I'll give it a try anyway.

Let me start from the most favored in expected win odds, Bellagio Opera. Getting straight to the point, I think Mr. Bellagio is risky. Last year, he finished third after winning Osaka-hai, though that was on soft, Kyoto turf and the pace was slow in both Osaka-hai and Takaraduka. I'm afraid things are different this year, even if there was some rain to soften the track. It's likely that he would degrade his performance from Osaka-hai.

As for the second-favored Lord del Rey, he might keep his performance depending on the track condition and the barrier he draws.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. The third favored in expected win odds as of today is Regaleira.

It's not just that Regaleira is coming back from a fraction that worries me, but also that she's always raised her performance by extending the distance. Takaraduka Kinen would be her first race this year since last year's Arima Kinen meaning, that it would be shortening the distance to 2200m. It's likely that Regaleira would drop her position during the race, which could be critical on a front-runner-friendly Hanshin course, though it also could turn out on the bright side when the pace gets tight.

Another concerning thing is that she's only won on courses with tight corners such as Hakodate or Nakayama. Besides, Arima Kinen was extremely slow and I'm afraid Regaleira would be quite overwhelmed even at an average pace.

With so many cause of concerns, I'd rather say "nay" for Regaleira knowing that female horses are doing well in Takaraduka Kinen.

Urban Chic is untrustworthy as well since the horse is hard to control. At least, having Christophe as the rider is somewhat comforting. Problems involving transport must have been cleared at the time of Kikka-sho, so we'll need to wait for the barrier draw to ponder further.

The End

Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. The barriers have been drawn. It looks like Danon Beluga has scratched off and Damian is going to ride Chuck Nate instead. Not sure what exactly happened to Danon Beluga, but something must have happened after the workout.

If Durezza doesn't insist, the pace won't be so tight, I suppose. If he does, then it's going to be tight. And if the pace gets tight, perhaps Lord del Rey would have his chance to win this time. Meanwhile, front runners like Durezza or Meisho Tabaru won't be happy I suppose, no matter how friendly this course might be.

It's usually the trailers starting from outer posts that would reap the benefits when the pace gets tight.

The End

Caterpillar

8:56 p.m. Oh, god. Meisho Tabaru is pushed up to the third favored in win odds. There must have been a large bet. I guess that isn't so strange considering the weather. The forecast is predicting full-fledged rain around Hanshin Racing Course tomorrow, and it's likely that the rain would remain until Sunday morning.

If the track turns out to be soft, it could surely be a plus point for Meisho Tabaru. His previous race in which he lost in fifth place was Dubai Turf. The race started at a relaxing pace speeding up rapidly in the later half, finishing in a deadheat between Soul Rush and Romantic Warrior. It wasn't a race for a horse like Tabaru.

Meanwhile, Regaleira has jumped up to the most favored in win odds. Mr. Bellagio has been disregarded. Regaleira too, must have been placed a huge bet, which is interesting in the sense that someone somewhere is thinking that she would win.

Let me think things over again.

The End

Caterpillar