5:30 p.m. Happy New Year, everyone! It's the start of a new year, let's start with a fresh mind.

I've watched a special program on Kitasan Black which I recorded last year, revisiting the races he'd run, realized again how great a horse he was while Duramente was even greater as he'd never been beaten by Kitasan. Wonder what would happen if these two had a race with Efforia and Contrail? Well, this is the fun part of horseracing.

Am going to watch Tsuri-baka Nisshi also redorded before I start working on my horse-race tasks. When would I watch it if not at New Year?

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Caterpillar

6:29 p.m. Shall start moving for Kinpai. Have done a quick research on Nakayama today.

The most favored are doing unexpectedly well at the average of 70& finishing within 3rd place. Although we have the image of Kinpai going wild, the unfavored are not performing so well. As a matter of fact, there were only 3 horses finishing within 3rd place among the horses favored below 10th in the past 10 years, and they were all 3rd place winners.

As for the most favored, we shouldn't be tricked by the horses that have won a grade race in their previous race. When such horses have leftover damage, they tend to lose big. Should start from judging the level of this year's Nakayama Kinpai anyhow, since the chances for lower class horses depend on it.

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6:12 p.m. Now let's move on to Kyoto Kinpai, though it will be held at Chukyo just as last year.

Unfortunately, there isn't much to refer to as there's merely one year's results and I can't read anything that could be called as trend from just one year. Last year the race finished in an averge pace, ending in a one-two-three of front runners. Judging from the results, it was a monotonous speed/power type race rather than an instantaneous speed contest.

What little notes I have says horses with high aptitude for Chukyo should be marked. That could be a start but basically, I shall stick to the usual process of avoiding the horses that have leftover damage.

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9:32 p.m. I'm sorry it's become so late, I had a zoom meeting with a friend. So here's my call for Nakayama Kinpai.

I will key Win Exceed. If his rivals' level doesn't change much from last year, I think he could do as well as last year. On the wheel of Cosmo Calendula, Heat on Beat, Victipharus, and Shamrock Hill.

As for Kyoto Kinpai, I have no confidence but will key Bathrat Leon on a wheel of Diatonic, Shuri, Rooks Nest, and Stelvio. The favor in win odds are widely split among multiple horses and I just couldn't trust the rider of Rooks Nest. Happy Kinpai!

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Caterpillar

6:45 p.m. A big loss as usual... I'd judged Nakayama's pace to be average but it turns out to be slow, very slow that it ended in an instantaneous speed contest. Still, I can't figure out why Scar Face was able to perform well from an outer post.

Kyoto wasn't much different. Zadar has beaten all the others, just when I'd erased him off my list. Kinpai is a difficult race to win as you all know, though I wish to win them one of these days.

It's been a terrible start as always and to wrap it up I've just been locked out on the balcony, in this cold while having a smoke. At a time like this when they're saying we're having some snowfall tomorrow...

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Caterpillar

5:41 p.m. Have done a thorough review of both Kinpai. Very meaningful. Perhaps I can win next year.

It snowed today (still snowing at the moment) so had to stay indoors all day. Haven't had my daily walk but that's okay having finished my review. Reviewing is a necessary process for me before I take the next step.

Just hope that the snow would melt by Sunday when I'm going to visit a friend on my bike since I definitely don't want to slip on the ice. No, no.

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Caterpillar

6:28 p.m. Because I always lose races at the beginning of each season, have decided to keep calling races every week just like the summer races. Not that it would make me win, though I might be able to keep my concentration.

This week I'll call Shinzan Kinen which seems to be difficult but I try it anyway. Chukyo mile is not my specialty as you can see from my Kyoto Kinpai loss however, I'll never get over it as long as I run away from it. Briefly scanning the entry form, it doesn't look like it's going to be a high level race and it doesn't look like the pace is going to be tight either. I've had some clues from Kyoto Kinpai so maybe that might help.

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6:52 p.m. As I've said earlier, I tried calling Shinzan Kinen while the number of infections are growing in 10s. Though it must be a good sign that the omicron variant is getting milder than the former variants.

I've keyed La Seule, not because she's Kitasan's daughter or because Christophe called her "post-Gran Alegria" but because I think she could perform well. On the wheel would be Sollitario, Kawakita Reverie, Red Belle Ame, Justin Ver, and Shonan Amellia. I did my best to make use of what information I got at Kyoto Kinpai.

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6:28 p.m. Just got back from a visit to my friend's place and learned I've lost big! What happened to La Seule?

Judging from a glimpse of the result it seemed to have been an average pace. Then what? What stopped the horse from winning? I've even bought La Seule's win ticket. Must check the video and see what really happened. Depending on that I shall be very angry, humph.

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Caterpillar

7:21 p.m. Having visited a friend I was fulfilled and happy although tired yesterday, but the terrible part came later. I lost Shinzan Kinen and our toilet got stuck after midnight... Without any tools to save me, I desperately Googled and learned that plastic bottles could be used by cutting off the bottom and covering the mouth part with your thumb.

After about an hour of struggle our toilet got back to safe ground, thank God. Not to mention I ran to the shop today to get myself a rubber cup.

Have reviewed the video of Shinzan Kinen to see that La Seule had goofed her start to lag behind. Later in the homestretch she was forced to change her course because of Selberg, though La Seule was already done by then. I suspect the condition of the horse was not good. Well, it was my fault not being able to see that.

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7:37 p.m. Work is piling up while I'm not working. I mean, not for money. Documents to fill out and send back, photocopies to make, a torn-off button to sew on, a website to check although I've been rejected at the login page for a couple of days.

Had to go out to the dentist whilst all this was pilng up... And it ate up two and a half hours of my precious afternoon time because it was raining and I couldn't ride my bike there. Additionally, the annoying thing is that the weather would stay fine for a while from tomorrow. Great.

In this against wind I'll have to start thinking about Nikkei Shinshun-hai held this weekend. One of the only two 4-year-olds entering this race Yoho Lake is intriguing, though his long blank needs consideration.

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Caterpillar

6:48 p.m. Button sewn on, photocopies made, documents filled in and sent. Website is still unable to check since it'still rejecting my logging in, but I could try that again tomorrow. Time to check out the info on Nikkei Shinshun-hai.

As well as last year, it will be held at Chukyo shortening the distance a furlong instead of Kyoto 2400m. Last year's result show that it finished in an instantaneous speed contest because the pace was slow. Considering the current track condition of Chukyo, we might have a similar race again.

Taking that into account, I'm rather in for Yoho Lake than Stella Veloce for the moment, unless the track condition becomes soft.

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Caterpillar

6:22 p.m. Come to think of it, Keisei-hai was also going to be held on Nakayama this weekend. Haven't checked this one yet since I haven't finished a thorough review of Shinzan Kinen run in the same distance. Will stick to Nikkei Shinhun-hai for now.

Looks like Chukyo haven't been hit by snow like other places. If the weather holds till weekend, it's likely that Nikkei Shinshun-hai would be an instantaneous speed contest. Though I'd better not forget to check the track condition in case it turned out to be power-consuming.

News has been delivered that Almond Eye has given birth to a colt. Expectation rises for this colt having Almond Eye as his mother and Epiphaneia as his father. Spoiled kid Wagnerian and Snowfall has sadly left for heaven but new lives are being born. Another spring is coming around in a couple of months.

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Caterpillar

6:07 p.m. The barrier draw for Nikkei Shinshun-hai has been released.

Haven't checked the level yet but it seems it's going to be a slow to average pace which means horses with instantaneous speed will have the advantage. Clavel, Stella Veloce, Yoho Lake, Precious Blue or Trust Kenshin could be the targets, though Stella Veloce is rather risky to key since a 2-week intervalafter 3 races last season is more than enough to leave damage.

However, that doesn't automatically mean that Yoho Lake is trustworthy since his position could be critical especially when the pace drops to slow. Both horses have drawn good posts (on the premise that Stella Veloce doesn't have left-over damage) and it's hard to choose from the two. Will have to rely on the score scale again.

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Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Okay, time for calling Nikkei Shinshun-hai.

Have done my homework on the research and decided to key Fly Like Bird since he's been performing highly on Chukyo turf. Not sure if he'd win but the shortening in distance and the rider would give him a boost. I'm counting on you, Yutaka.

On the wheel would be Clavel, Stella Veloce, Yoho Lake and Effect On. Wasn't sure if I should include Meiner Virtus though eventually dismissed the idea.

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Caterpillar

6:22 p.m. Forgive me, I was all wrong. It's my fault keying Fly Like Bird while Yoho Lake had scored the highest on my score scale, just because I lacked confidence in Yoho Lake's position. I promise to follow what my score scale says from now on.

I thought Fly Like Bird would have a follow wind by shortening the distance despite his weak point that he doesn't like to get squashed in the field. I overestimated. When Stella Veloce swept from the outside, the horse flinched and stopped fighting. This explains why he lost big.

As for Yoho Lake, Yuuga has positioned the horse well (not too way behind), making full use of his instantaneous speed. Yashamaru caught me completely off guard. I shall do a thorough review to determine the exact cause for his performance.

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Caterpillar

7:42 p.m. Have reviewed Nikkei Shinshun-hai and it turns out I wasn't calm and observant enough. If I'd had a cool head, I might have realized I was going in the opposite direction when Fly Like Bird attracted me.

I checked the track condition dutifully and knew I should go for the Deep Impact line yet I turned a blind eye to Yoho Lake and Yashamaru although I included Effect On (I left out Precious Blue and Danon Majesty because they drew outer posts and outer post starters hadn't performed well on Saturday).

Sometimes I think or act illogically and don't notice that until later when I look back. Well, I'm only human. My brains don't work like computers.

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Caterpillar

4:58 p.m. This week's main race at Chukyo is Tokai Stakes, dirt... Nakayama is holding AJCC which I could have won though didn't last year because I didn't buy betting tickets. However, it's pretty clear that Orthoclase is going to be (very) favored and I don't think Last Draft would perform as good as last year.

Perhaps it might be a good chance to conquer my weekness against dirt races. After all, February Stakes is only a month away. Guess I'll sleep on the decision for now.

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Caterpillar

6:37 p.m. Learning a bit about Chukyo dirt. Dirt tracks are generally said to have little track bias, but I've checked the results of last week's Chukyo dirt races.

Had an impression that front runners perform better on Chukyo dirt however, lookers were able to take over in short distance races. In mid-distance races e.g. 1800m dirt, stalkers were performing well though it couuld have been because of the lagged pace since the high-performers all had good clocks for the last 3 furlongs.

Also, either the outmost or the innermost post starters were doing better compared to the posts in between such as post numbers 4 to 12, though it could have been because 3 out of 7 races had been small-field races.

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. Reviewing Chukyo course.

Chukyo race course is pretty unique. 1800m has a steep uphill (1.8m height difference) before the goal post with the remaining one eighth of a mile being flat, while it gradually climbs up throughout the 1st and 2nd corner towards the middle of the backstretch. When this climb ends, the rest is a long downhill through the 3rd and 4th corner rolling into the homestretch that lasts for 410.7m, the second longest following Tokyo Race Course. Not to mention the steep uphill waiting before the flat goal.

This course layout seems to enocourage horses that take their positions up front, though they also need instantaneous speed to react in the last 200m. It seems almost impossible for horses trailing way behind to take over even when the lap becomes tight.

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Caterpillar

6:41 p.m. The barrier draw for Tokai Stakes has been released.

Great Time has drawn a good post, the rest is up to the rider I guess. Auvergne has also drawn a good post in the sense that he won't be squashed in the field. The horse has won this race last year starting from the same post so this might be encouraging.

Meanwhile Orthoclase has drawn post number 11 in AJCC. He's fresh back from recess, and Christophe is riding with lighter weight. No reason to avoid him except for the win odds.

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Caterpillar

7:04 p.m. Have decided to call Tokai Stakes though AJCC is distracting me.

Forecast says Chukyo will have either raifall or snowfall in the afternoon. It depends on the weather but if the track becomes wet and faster, Auvergne would have the advantage. My score scale also ranked him as top score so I'm keying Auvergne.

On the wheel would be Great Time, Miyaji Kokuo, Genpachi Lucifer, Bullbear Iride, and Sunrise Hope. As for AJCC, it's not fun to go for Orthoclase so if I were to buy betting tickets, I'd want to go for Danburite or Anticipate.

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Caterpillar

5:38 p.m. Completely left out Suave Aramis's aptitude for wet, fast dirt... Of course, he's a heart's Cry descendant. He'd perform better on speedy condition rather than power-consuming dirt.

It's a pity since the pace became average as I'd predicted it would be. The least blessing was that I'd put some insurance on place for Auvergne though the payout has fallen short of my total bet as you can see.

Nevertheless, I've learned that aptitude for track condition could become an important factor in calling dirt races as well as turf races. That's one step forward. It gives me hope that I might be able to win February Stakes this year, if I take enough time to do a full research on the given condition.

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Caterpillar

7:08 p.m. This week we're having Silkroad Stakes on Chukyo turf while Tokyo is starting with Negishi Stakes. February Stakes is less than a month away.

I am conerned of Meikei Yell running Silkroad Stakes I mean, she'd blast at some point just not sure when. On the other hand, I need to check out Negishi Stakes, too in case there might be a potential horse like Copano Kicking. This year's entrees seem a bit disappointing and Negishi Stakes winners don't necessarily link to February, but it's a race that could give me clues.

Whichever race I choose, I'd probably have a hard time calling.

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Caterpillar

7:01 p.m. Paperwork has been eating up my time but was able to snatch some spare time to take a peek at the entry list for Negishi Stakes.

Currently there are 24 horses entered with five of them being G3 winners and one G2 winner. It depends on how many and which horse scratches off though it's likely that Negishi Stakes this year won't be so high level. The pace, I won't be able to guess until after the barrier draw however, I'm in for Tagano Beauty for the moment.

Wonder who the rider is going to be, though?

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Caterpillar

6:01 p.m. Not to mention Negishi Stakes is a step race for February Stakes, Silkroad Stakes is also a step race for Takamatsuno-miya Kinen. That's why I can't let these races just pass by. February Stakes and Takamatsuno-miya Kinen are the two G1 races at the beginning of the spring season, which I've been losing year after year.

While Negishi Stakes' line-up doesn't seem to be that high level, Silkroad Stakes is important in a different way. In the past 10 years, the top 3 winning horses of Takamatsuno-miya Kinen include 1 horse running Silkroad Stakes as its step race except for 2015. Sudden Storm has lost in 4th place that year, though it could be said the horse has put up a good fight considering he was the 10th favored.

Have already grasped the link between Silkroad Stakes and Takamatsuno-miya Kinen although approximately, so I can't be tied up with just Negishi Stakes.

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Caterpillar

6:12 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend's races so will start working though I haven't decided which race to call yet.

The target of my interest, Tagano Beauty's rider was announced as Akihide Tsumura. I had a different rider in mind, but well. Simply a bit worried as this is the first time he's going to ride this horse. As for Silkroad Stakes, Meikei Yell's rider stays the same Ikezoe, somewhat a relief considering the risk this horse holds within.

Also, Yuichi Fukunaga seems to have started riding in workouts. It's been announced he'd come back from February 5th at Cukyo. Welcome back.

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. The barrier draw has been out. Haven't decided which race to call yet, so am looking at both.

It depends on which horse takes the lead, Helios or Lien Verite but Negishi Stakes might not be run in such a tight pace. I'll set it as average to tight. Must be careful though, since trailers starting from inner posts will have the advantage if the pace becomes tight. Lien Verite has drawn a good post if there's a chance of rain.

As for Silkroad Stakes, I think Meikei Yell has drawn a good post as well as Curren Moe. Starting from an inner post would help Meikei Yell concentrate on the race, while Curren Moe wants to avoid being squashed. If the pace becomes tight, there might be chances for horses like Ruggero or Naran Huleg. Gendarme might also have a chance but perhaps he didn't have luck on his side with the barrier draw.

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7:29 p.m. Tried to choose between the two races in which I failed and eventually decided to call both. My work simply doubled yes, but oh well.

Am keying Tagano Beauty for Negishi Stakes as I've been saying all week. Don't think he would sweep to the top, not at this moment, though if the pace becomes tighter than I'd expected there may be a chance. On the wheel would be Omega Rainbow, Helios, Lien Verite, Time Flyer, and Jasper Prince.

As for Silkroad Stakes, I couldn't come up with anything else besides Meikei Yell, Naran Huleg, and Bien Fait. My score scale also ranked them as top 3.

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Caterpillar

5:46 p.m. Have failed to focus on several points and lost again except for the place of Tagano Beauty.

Negishi Stakes has become a tight pace which I was prepared and had mde adjustments yesterday however, T M South Dan had slipped out of my wheel since he scored the lowest on the score scale. I knew South Vigorous descendants are good with 1400m, but I'd underestimated that they'd do better on power-consuming local dirt.

Meikei Yell has finally performed to my expectation however, I couldn't imagine Shine Garnet charging from the outside. Had missed that she was carrying lighter weight than Naran Huleg, although I guessed that the pace would be average and carrying lighter weight would be an advantage in an instantaneous speed contest.

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to come up with a good idea to not let such horses slip away. Perhaps it might be good to stick to betting only on place until I could figure out a way.

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Caterpillar

6:37 p.m. Haven't organized my thoughts yet for last week's races but there are races every weekend.

This week we're having Tokyo Shinbun-hai at Tokyo and Kisaragi-sho on Chukyo. Tokyo Shinbun-hai would be an interesting step for horses taking aim at Yasuda Kinen (or the summer races) which is months ahead in time though that's why it's interesting. In recent years, there were horses running Tokyo Shinbun-hai as a step race to perform highly in their following races such as Indy Champ or Lys Gracieux.

If the pace lags like last week's Silkroad Stakes, the lighter weight would become an advantage for horses like Fine Rouge, Donna Attraente, or A Shin Chiller, while 59kg would be a burden for Caidence Call.

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Caterpillar