9:53 p.m. Sorry to keep you on hold, my friends.

The rain had stopped before the turn of the day and though today's turf races at Tokyo started with good to firm, it dried and was later changed to firm from race 9. They didn't provide me much information as all the turf races today were run in small fields at slow pace. But one thing I noticed was that the turf was fast.

After the condition improved to firm, race 10 was run in an average 1min. 32.8 seconds for a mile however, the final race of 1800m finished with a dazzling 1min. 44.1 seconds. It makes me think that we might have another record finish tomorrow.

I had to think things over from the start in my reluctant state thanks to Lord del Rey and now I'm left with seven horses. Yes, my candidates are increasing, again thanks to Lord Del Rey. Currently on the list are Justin Palace, Tastierra, Masquerade Ball, Ho O biscuits, Museum Mile, Meisho Tabaru, and Queen's Walk.

Come to think of it, though I don't think Tastierra or Meisho Tabaru can perform well on such a speed track. Might have to think things over again. Will skip tomorrow BTW since Mr. N-jima is coming in a while.

The End

Caterpillar

8:31 p.m. Can't tell you how many times I've cursed myself for my stupidity and I'm cursing again as I've switched Justin Palace on my trio wheel with Sol Oriens Sunday morning. Just because the Saddler's Wells line were performing well in the morning. I've done this before. Moreover, the races I referred to were both limited to 2-year-olds. To top it up, I keyed Masquerade Ball.

It's bad my friends, it's BAAAAD!

The least blessing is that Forever Young has achieved our long-cherished dream while the L.A. Dodgers (and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of course) won the World Series. It was a great race as well as a great baseball game that will go down in history. Also, I'd like to use this opportunity to humbly mention that the Blue Jays fought well and tough. They were skilled players backed up with tough spirit and good tactics. I wouldn't have been surprised if they won. I'd like to appreciate both teams for keeping me excited for the whole week! Thank you guys, rest well!

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. Work went well today so let me start thinking about Argentina Republic Cup while I'm in good spirit. Yes, it's that time of year already.

Speaking of Argentina Republic Cup, what comes to mind is the Roberto line. Roberto line descendants have been constantly performing well in this race. Out of the past 10 years, there were only 2 years when Roberto line descendants failed to finish above third place, year 2022 and 2024. In 2022, T O Royal who had Roberto in his broodmare's side lost in 6th place while Admire Halley who had Roberto in his sireline lost in a close 4th place in 2024, within 2 lengths from the winning horse, Hayayakko.

Oh, now I remember. Yes, yes, Hayayakko. And the finishing time was fast, following Tenno-sho the week before. I was hit by surprise then with 8-year-old Hayayakko's victory followed by 7-year-old Chrominance, though it stirred up my memory to remember that older horses (sometimes) perform surprisingly well on firm, fast track.

Perhaps we might see a similar situation again this year, considering the result of Tenno-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Whether super-fast turf condition gives some kind of advantage to older horses I don't know, but I've seen horses over 8 years old suddenly perform well on speed tracks despite their favority. I've always wondered why, though I haven't found any plausible answer to my question so I've decided to accept things as they are until some day I'm awakened to the cause of this mystery.

Incidentally, as I pulled up the entry form on the screen to see if there were ay horses entered over the age of seven this year, I found two. Mystery Way and Wide Emperor, both 7 years old.

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Caterpillar

8:26 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend races and Argentina Republic Cup is running with 18 horses, yay! It's not just the big field that makes me happy. An umbrella mark has newly appeared on Sunday's forecast!

As mentioned here over and over, the combination of a full-field race with soft track condition often results in a big payout. If a full-field race on relatively time- consuming track runs at a tight pace, the chance of it finishing with a big payout grows even more.�@It's also a handicapped race!

Considering the distance of Argntina Republic Cup, it's unlikely for the race to get into a tight lap this year, especially where there aren't many front runners. So if the track stays as firm, front runners starting from outer posts as well as trailers starting from the inner posts will be advantaged. What kind of horse would be advantaged if the track becomes soft, then?

Basically, the forementioned type of horses stay advantaged. Perhaps trailers starting from inner posts will be slightly more advantaged if the track gets soft because horses swinging around the outside have to face the course and stamina loss.

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Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. So the barriers for argentina Republic Cup have been drawn.

As mentioned earlier, there aren't many front runners and it looks like Mystery Way, the 7-year-old might take the lead. The pace is likely to drop to slow, then. If the pace is slow, front runners starting from outer posts and trailers starting from inner posts will have the advantage. The remaining consideration is the track condition. Forecasts have shifted from cloudy to predicting rain for Sunday, but the question is how much it rains.

Unfortunately, forecasts still seem to be divided on when the rain will start falling as well as how much. Well then, I'll have to wait until Sunday to make my final decision. But in the meantime, I shall proceed on my call on the premise that the turf would be announced firm.

Taking another look at the entry form, my, there are only a few horses that performed well in their previous races!

The End

Caterpillar

9:13 p.m. The forecasts finally got on the same page to predict rain for tomorrow however, the amount of rainfall is still split between them.

While the track condition can't be assumed, I almost gave up calling the race because of the lame entrees. First of all, there are only three horses that won previously, Nishino Revenant, Stinger Glass, and the 7-year-old Mystery Way who will probably become a good target to be swept in the leisurely pace. And then, there are literally few trailers that seem to have enough potential to reach the podium in the inner posts.

So I've done my best to pick horses starting from outer posts that have a good chance of going up front along with horses that might, possibly have a boost at the end. Here are the names left on my list at this point. Dee My the Kid, Hohelied, Nishino Revenant, and Stinger Glass. If the track turns out to be good to firm, I can add Wide Emperor.

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Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. Darn!! Excuse me. It's me, the never-learning caterpillar.

Didn't I swear to myself that I would always buy a runaway as long as it can take the lead undisturbed? Didn't I realize that older horses perform well on firm, fast track? Didn't I suggest Mystery Way might have a chance especially starting from an outer post? Why don't I have her on my wheel with Dee My the Kid keyed?

Ugh, Hohelied turned out tobe the boobie trap! Didn't I tell myself that high performers in Meguro Kinen don't link with Argentina Republic Cup because the property of the two races are completely different although they run on the same course in the same distance?

Is there something wrong with my memory or am I already demented? One thing for sure is that I underestimated the rider of Mystery Way. Hiroki Matsumoto... who is this guy, anyway?

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Caterpillar

8:15 p.m. While I'm fumbling, Queen Elizabeth Cup is already running this weekend.

Come to think of it, Queen Elizabeth Cup was the first G1 race I ever won. Erimo Chic won followed by Dance Partner and the quinella payed out only 600 yen. Not to mention, trios, trifectas, even exactas weren't sold yet in those days. Now that I look back on the past results of this race, it brings back a lot of memories. Bitter memories mostly of regretful losses.

Last year wasn't an exception so I might as well start from analyzing the stats of Queen Elizabeth Cup.

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Caterpillar

9:14 p.m. Exhausted after work, also very sleepy so I'll leave a quick note on my analysis of Queen Elizabeth Cup.

The distance of this race 2200m seems to demand stamina since it's the longest distance race limited to 3 years old and over female horses, but maybe it's rather the property of the race which affects the highs and lows of the horses' performance. In other words, I think what's required is the potential or aptitude to perform well in a non-major distance such as 2200m, rather than the stamina.

Therefore, I'm thinking of checking out the past high-performers' achievements in non-major distances like 1800m or 1400m, along with their performances on courses with long straights.

The End

Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. I've only finished tracing up the past results of Queen Elizabeth Cup to 2019, and I'm starting to see something like a trend although not sure how to put them down into words. Will give it a try anyway.

So what I found out was that horses finishing above third place in Queen Elizabeth Cup all had records of either winning or finishing second in 1800m or 2200m regardless of the class. I couldn't find any horse that performmed well on 1400m. They also had experiences of performing well on Tokyo or Niigata, both known to have long straights.

So it's not exactly stamina or speed that is required in this race. Got it.

The End

Caterpillar

9:16 p.m. It turns out that only 16 horses are running in this year's Queen Elizabeth Cup. I thought there were more entered, but well, it's better than 12 horses.

While narrowing down the candidates that suit Kyoto turf 2200m, I've also checked out the 3-year-olds' performance in this race. The freshness should give them advantage generally, but in fact there were only two horses that won Queen Elizabeth Cup in the past 10 years, the 2023 champion Brede Weg, and the 2017 winner Mozu Katchan. It was rahter unexpected that there were only two winners from 3-year-olds.

What these two share in common is that they hadn't won female classic races (for 3 year olds) and they also hadn't won in the step race right before Queen Elizabeth Cup. For your infomation, there were five more 3-year-olds that finished either second or third in the past 10 years however, none of them had won in the classic races except for Loves Only You who was obviously in the zone. Even Harper hadn't won in either Oaks nor Shuka-sho.

So if it's between Erika Express, Kelly Fled Ask, Paradis Reine and Lynx Tip, I guess Kelly Fled Ask or Paradis Rene seem more likely.

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Caterpillar

8:28 p.m. So the barriers have been drawn and announced.

Not sure what the pace will be lke, but Erika Express is likely to take the lead. Yet there are several front runners, so the pace might get tight at the beginning. Paradis Reine, Stellenbosch, Shinryokuka, and Regaleira aren't good with the push and shove so it would be better for them if the pace gets tight. However, Kyoto 2200m tends to lag during the middle despite the fierce position battle at the beginning, which makes it harder for us to win this race.

The End

Caterpillar

9:37 p.m. I've just checked the forecast for tomorrow's Kyoto and there seems to be no chance of rain whatsoever. The track must be bone-dry judging from today's stats announced from JRA. It also looks like it's gradually taking time, which means that the inner part of the course is getting consumed and damaged.

Kyoto turf 2200m usually runs at a leisurely pace due to the course layout, but the line-up of the horses along with the firm turf condition suggests an average pace. What I fear is that Cristian might urge Lynx Tip to go up front. If he does, the pace could get faster.

Hoping Erika Express to smoothly take the lead while Lynx Tip quietly stays in the front position until the last corner, I'm keying Kana Tape on a wheel of Paradis Reine, Bond Girl, Lilac, Coconuts Brown and Lynx Tip.

Regaleira, I think, is not aiming at this race, but rather at Arima Kinen. Besides, she's performed too well in All Comer.

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Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. I apologize, Regaleira. I underestimated you.

Lynx Tip did go up front as I feared. But the pace settled at a slightly slow average, thanks to Erika Express. The lengthwise lineup of the horses gave room to Regaleira, which allowed the Grand Prix female horse to top her career with another crown.

Since I thought that the 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds were unreliable, I schemed to key a 6-year-old and failed. I should have keyed Lilac who has performed well in Queen Elizabeth Cup, rather than a dark horse like Kana Tape challenging G1 for the first time.

The End

Caterpillar

9:20 p.m. It was my bad not including Regaleira in my wheel, I admit.

But I will not key her at Arima Kinen, I declare. I don't remember a female horse that has won Arima Kinen let alone won two years in a row, also winning Queen Elizabeth Cup the same year. The closest I can recall is Geraldina who finished third in 2022. Therefore, I will compromise to keep Regaleira on my wheel just for safe keeping even when she's provided with the best condition ever.

The End

Caterpillar

9:10 p.m. Let's move on to Mile Championship.

This mile G1 is hard to approach, though. The reason is because this race has turned into a wild race two years in a row since 2023, in other words, after the Kyoto renewal. Until then, Mile Championship mostly finished on the favored side. What exactly has changed, then?

As far as I know, the finishing record became faster compared to before the renewal. The finishing time of 2019, the last time this race was held on Kyoto turf was 1min. 33.0 seconds while last year's Mile Championship ended with 1min. 32.0 seconds. The gap reaches one second. A one-second time gap in the world of horseracing where they beat their rivals by a nose or a head, is actually big and said to be equivalent to 5 lengths.

What I fear is that the property of therace might have changed.

The End

Caterpillar

8:51 p.m. On the premise that the property of Mile Championship has changed after the renewal of Kyoto Race Course, it may be said that the trailers became more advantaged than before.

Until 2019, front runners were performing well in this race. In fact, eight front runners have finished above third place in the five years since 2015. But when we turn our eyes to the recent two years after the renewal, the only front runner which finished above third place is Win Marvel.

If the track condition doesn't change dramatically, perhaps I can assume Mile Championship to end with trailers dominating the podium like Queen Elizabeth Cup in spite of the course change to course C to cover the damaged inner turf.

The End

Caterpillar

9:10 p.m. Have just checked the forecast to learn that rain hasn't fallen in Kyoto for the past four days. Not even a drop. Additionally, there is no forecast expecting rain in Kyoto before Sunday. Not one. Zilch.

I think that's enough to assume that the track condition will be dry and firm. Guessing from the stats of last week, the base should be quite hard. Yet it won't be a super fast track like the opening week even after the temporal fence is set, because the fence can't cover all the damaged parts.

Summing up the track condition and the change in the trend of Mile Championship, I'm thinking it's going to be a race for trailers, as mentioned earlier. The choice of trailers, though has to be waited since the lineup after th barrier draw will largely affect how the race will unfold.

Meanwhile, the entry has been closed today and 18 horses will be running this year. As I often say, it's always good to have a full-field race.

The End

Caterpillar

9:11 p.m. The result of Mile Championship's barrier draw has been anounced so let's take a look.

Since it's a full-field race without an obvious runaway, inner post drawers might have a hard time taking positions as well as keeping them. Also, there aren't many horses these days that can weave through the field from the inside.

Given that, horses starting fom middle to outer posts that can accelerate smoothly seem attractive to my eyes.

The End

Caterpillar

9:16 p.m. Kyoto's track condition seems to be dried-up as expected. However, the course condition is not that of the super-fast track that appears on the opening week like I said earlier.

Despite the temporal fence set today, the inner part of the course looks a bit bumpy. Since the favored front runners like Jantar Mantar or Lebensstil have drawn outer posts, it's likely that they would try to take higher positions resulting in a case where the inner post drawers get trapped along the rail. In such a case, it will be the horses with instantaneous speed that can take their positions right behind the outer post front runners that will benefit from the situation, I reckon.

Therefore, I decided to key Soul Rush who seemed to me the most reliable. On the wheel are Ascoli Piceno (just in case since Christophe hasn't let go of her yet), Lavanda, Win Marvel, Lebensstil, and Jantar Mantar.

The End

Caterpillar

7:45 p.m. I misread the whole race. I didn't think Mile Championship was going to be a recap of Fuji Steaks. That's something that hadn't happened before the Kyoto renewal. The trend has changed indeed in that sense.

I also thought that the horses would stay in a clump with the outer post drawers trapping the inner post drawers along the rail. However, such idea collapsed when Soul Rush dropped his position in spite of his rocket start. It's sad to admit it, though perhaps Dubai Turf was the horses prime. You can't blame the horse, he's already 7 years old come to think of it.

So it's my bad again. Yes, it's always my fault.

The End

Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. As Mile Championships has been a total blunder, I need a thorough review, which I haven't got on to it yet although it was a holiday today. Being a homemaker and a freelance worker, I have a lot of things to do whether it's a holiday or a working day.

Without a full-fledged review, I don't think I can win Japan Cup so I'm assigning myself to some extra work, hard work. With books from the library to read, a house to clean since Mr. N-jima is coming this weekend, and work to be done with my clients, I know I'm way in over my head. Still, what's got tobe done, got to be done.

Now, if you'll excuse me I need to go.

The End

Caterpillar