7:31 p.m. I didn't expect it to actually be a recap of last year. The same first, second and third place winner as the year before in a G1 is something I've never seen in my career of calling races.

After pondering this way and that, I eventually decided to cross out Gaia Force and key Lemon Pop. After all, Gaia Force was starting from the outmost post and that was nothing but a huge disadvantage unless the horse could take the lead and build up its own race in its own relaxed rythm, just like Lemon Pop did last year.

The stats of this year's Champions' Cup show the pace didn't differ much from last year's so consequently, it's been another race for Lemon Pop. The fact that Wilson Tesoro came in second and Dura Erede third, suggests that there's a gap between the other horses. Since Wilson and Dura drew almost the same post as last year, perhaps I should have expected this result.

The End

Caterpillar

7:42 p.m. Have finished checking out high-performers in February Stakes that also perform well in Champions' Cup. Should have done this a long time ago, but it's been kept untouched so I've used this opportunity to make a differnce next year.

Now, onto Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, which should be renamed as it's going to be run on Kyoto mile this year. Must work hard on it since the average payout for trios go over 11,000 yen, trifectas above 49,000 yen.

Considering the current Kyoto turf condition, horses sweeping up the outside may have the advantage, as well as horses having European background for long-lasting speed.

I can't say anything certain at this point yet, since a big group of 26 horses are entered as of today however, it looks like there are many front-runners registered to run this race. If the pace gets tight, that would benefit the horses from behind even more, as well as horses running in longer distances in their previous races.

The End

Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. This year's Hanshin Juvenile Fillies might be special, not just because it will be run at Kyoto but also because an expectant competitor is joinig the race, all the way from U.S.A.!

Many of you have already wondered, "Who's May Day Ready?" so I'm going to tell you a little about the horse today. May Day Ready is a two-year-old fillie from America having Tapit as a sire and More Than Ready as broodmare sire, both of which you would find familiar if you are a Japanese horseracing fan. Tapit is known to have sent out Testa Matta, the February Stakes champion as a sire, while Gran Alegria and Durezza were both his grandchidren.

May Day Ready has already won a G2 in the States, finishing second behind Lake Victoria in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, a mile G1 in the U.S. by a mere gap of 0.2 seconds in her previous race. Assuming from her finishing time 1 minute 34.5 seconds, she might adjust to Japanese turf without problem.

Personally, I'm pretty excited and I wanted to dig in further, but I had to help a friend with an issue and couldn't spare the time today. Will see if I can tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. Since I'm running late again today, will just brief through last year's notes though I'm not sure whether they will be of any use on Kyoto mile. Let me share them anyway.

There were only two, to be honest. The first one says, "horses that ran 1400m in their previous races can only be trusted when they've won two races before in either 1600m or 1200m." This should surely help narrowing down the candidates as there must be horses running 1400m in their previous races.

The second note says, "horses running 1800m in their previous races would perform better when they've run 1600m two races ago." Well, horses shortening the distance would be advantaged if the pace gets tight. It would not only suuplement stamina, but also help when horses try to break out from the field, which means that horses shortening their distances for a mile race are generally trustworthy, regardless of the pace.

The End

Caterpillar

8:57 p.m. Wanting to check the trend of pedigree background concerning Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, have taken the trouble to scan the results of the past ten years. It took me some time to realize I've wasted my time since the race will be run at Kyoto this year. Darn. It will be added to my careless Senryu (comic Haiku) collection.

Generally, though horses with European blood seems to be doing well on Kyoto turf, especially after the renewal. According to some sources, the most winning sire on Kyoto turf 1600 (outer course) is said to be Isla Bonita, but I'm sceptical about it. The only Isla Bonita descendant I could recall performing well on this course is Tudo de Bon so I went searching and discovered that there were also a few female horses apart from Tudo de Bon, but they were all in lower category.

Thinking of Soul Rush doing well on Kyoto mile (outer course) as well as Namur or Elton Baarows, it could be said that European blood is actually performing well on this course.

The End

Caterpillar

9:43 p.m. As it's the weekend, I'm getting real busy again. But no one seems to care apparently, and the barriers have been long drawn.

I have a hunch the pace could be average, if not tight, even though Kyoto mile rarely gets into a tight lap. There are several horses that want to go up front as well as horses shortening distances. Besides, it's a race for two-year-old fillies. It would be difficult to keep the horses under control considering their short careers.

The End

Caterpillar

9:53 p.m. Very much cofused.

I'd assumed Kyoto turf would be quite damaged by now (especially the inner part of the course) and so, that horses sweeping up from the outsde would be advantaged. But today's race results for the outer turf course were on the contrary. Front runners were doing better than lookers.

That means power and speed type front runners would do better than feather-light instantaneous speed runners. If so, the required pedigree background would incline towards American blood rather than European.

What's worse, many of the front-runners' crew have mentioned something like "We don't necessarily have to take the lead...," which would largely effect the pace that I otherwise thought might actually tighten.

Everything has been turned upside down and my head is in chaos. Will have to think it all over again, sigh. The only thing I can say now is that I would buy Run for Vow while I'm pretty dubious about the Artemis Stakes group. Maybe Arma Veloce and Caught Alliciant on my wheel?

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. As the turf had been watered this morning growing slightly heavier than yesterday, I decided to go for the tough European type not to mention, after a lot of pondering since last night.

I keyed Arma Veloce just because she was a Harbinger descendant. Harbinger descendants are typical European types and I thought if Arma Veloce doesn't perform well in this situation, who would? I couldn't give up Teleos La La and Run for Vow after all the pondering, so I kept them on the wheel with Kawakita Mana Lea, Shonan Xanadu, Caught Alliciant, and May Day Ready. I gave up on Brown Ratchet because if I was buying Shonan Xanadu, that meant Brown Ratchet would be unnecessary.

The result, as you all already know, was another painful loss thanks to Vip Daisy. She was still there on my list last night, why didn't I buy her instead of Caught Alliciant and Kawakita? OUCH!

The End

Caterpillar

8:39 p.m. Right in the middle of reviewing and analyzing Hanshin JF. Figuring out what went wrong is all the more important in times like this. It could sometimes give you insight that can lead to future success. Well, that's what I believe. Mr. N-jima would probably laugh it off as time consuming or a waste of energy.

The results of Hanshin JF show that the top three finishers all had European pedigree background. I was torn between European and American and eventually picked European considering the track condition. I think I made a good decision there. The best performance made by horsee with American background (there were 13 of them in all) was Shonan Xanadu's 4th place.

It gives me hope that the track condition is giving advantage to tough European type horses, since Asahi-hai will be run on the same course, in the same distance this week. Now I have proof (and confidence) that Kyoto turf mile is now a quite stamina consuming setting. It will be the basis of my call as there is no turning back concerning turf conditions; they just get worse.

The End

Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. The surface of the outside turf course of Kyoto seems pretty rough, especially where it's closer to the inner fence. Clumps of grass have been dug and kicked up by horses' hooves, showing the ground here and there. It's all thanks to the Hanshin renewal.

Added to the rough course, there's been some percipitation around the time of Hanshin JF. I also learned later, that rain fell temporarily on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Together with the moring watering of the turf, that must have made the turf time consuming, demanding stamina more than instantaneous speed, which explains why tough European types as well as horses shortening the distance have performed well in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies.

I've just checked the weekly forecast for Kyoto Race Course, and it says cloudy for Friday, cloudy followed by rain in the afternoon for Saturday, and cloudy with partly sunny skies for Sunday. As I said, I don't think the turf condition would improve. The candidates for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes I believe, can be narrowed down with the information I already have concerning the turf condition.

The End

Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. Looking at the entry form, trying to sort through the horses by pedigree background.

19 horses are entered as of today, and 13 of them have European pedigree background. As for horses shortening the distance from their previous races, I found only four Ermland, Sword Master, Take It All, and Museum Mile.

Of these four horses, I don't think Sword Mater is going to fit Kyoto mile. It seems the horse perfoms better on spacious (but monotonous) tracks like Tokyo or Niigata as well as at a slow pace on a firm, fast track. He also has the damage from his previous race.

Take It All seems risky, too. Kyoto 2000m is run on the inner course not the outer course where Asahi-hai will be run, so it could be thought that the horse wasn't so good at handling a trickey course but then, that exactly could be the reason for another loss even though the outer course isn't as trickey as the inner course. Besides, Take It All doesn't have a strong European background.

The most promising among the aforementioned four horses seems to be Museum Mile.

The End

Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. News has broken out that they will be using the D course for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes. JRA is going to set up a temporal fence covering the inner damaged part of the turf. As a result, the width of the course would be narrowed by three meters.

Now!? They tell me now!? After I've spent so much time considering which horse would benefit from the tough turf condition!?

Well, come to think about it, the popped-up fence I guess, won't drastically effect the situation since it's not going to recover the whole course overnight. Nevertheless, I shall check Saturday's race results to make sure the trend hasn't changed.

Meanwhile, the entry has been closed and 16 horses are running in this year's Asahi-hai. Sword Master seems to have been scratched off, but Ermland, Take It All, and Museum Mile have all made it. Will just have to wait till tomorrow morning to see the barrier draw result, which is another important factor to win this race.

The End

Caterpillar

9:32 p.m. The result of the Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes barrier draw has been released this morning. I'm assuming the pace would be about average, just like last week.

Have checked the JRA website to collect information on the current turf situation. Not much seems to have changed since last week so far, so I guess I can value the European types more than horses with American background.

The End

Caterpillar

9:45 p.m. Despite the shower in Kyoto this morning, the track seems to be firm. I'm guessing, though that it demands stamina. So here I am once again, torn between Europe and America.

Watching today's races on Kyoto's outer turf course, I decided it would be better to choose front runners starting from the middle or outer barriers, since such horses were doing well especially, if they had instantaneous speed. Horses trying to take over from behind eventually couldn't make it to the top even though they charged from the outside. Now I'm getting worried that Museum Mile may not able to catch the horses running in front of him.

I thought it would be either Museum Mile or Panja Tower (Mr. N-jima's recommend), but my concerns about Museum Mile is tipping me off to Panja Tower. Yet Panja Tower has the risk to sink because his previous win might backfire. I'm wringing my brain to find a way to avoid risks as much as possible.

I'll just say that my key horse would be either Museum Mile or Panaja Tower. On a wheel of Arlecchino, Total Clarity, Nitamonodoushi, and A Shin Wand(I have to buy Hide Miyuki just in case since I've been hurt so badly last week).

Or on a second thought, it might be better to key Nitamonodoushi?

The End

Caterpillar

8:36 p.m. I was going to key Nitamonodoushi last night because the track condition seemed firm.

I don't know what on earth happened overnight, but when I checked the stats before the race I was stunned by the figures shown on the official site because they suggested that the track was quite power-consuming. I checked it a couple of times to make sure it wasn't another of my careless blunders, switching the tab from Kyoto to Nakayama back and forth.

Seeing that it wasn't a mistake (nor a dream), I ditched the idea of keying Nitamonodoushi and keyed Museum Mile instead. If it's not a speed track, Museum Mile would be the best choice. I also added Craspedia, sensing that the outer post drawers would be disadvantaged considering the track condition.

The result, as you know, was a total loss, which is a consequence of my unskillfulness. However, I'd like to say a word or two about the track condition including the official announcement regarding the turf firmness as well as water content ratio.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. On Sunday, I opened the JRA website to check the turf condition of Kyoto. I knew that they measured the firmness with Clegg hammers at a certain time in the mornings of Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and announced the results on their werbsite page along with the results of the water content ratio (WCR).

My understading was that they measure in the morning and release them on their web page once a day at a certain time, since the stats figures usually remained the same once they were uploaded. But something weird has happened.

The firmness which was announced to be 11.5 on Saturday, changed to 10.0 while the WCR for the finishing line and the last corner respectively shot up to 12.4% and 12.0%, from those of Saturday: 8.6% and 7.6%. What this means is that the ground beneath the turf is firm, but the grass is containing enough water to almost be judged as "good to firm." I thought that was queer since it hadn't rained in Kyoto the night before as far as I knew. But seeing the stats I hurriedly changed my key horse from Nitamonodoushi to Music Mile.

And then the craziest thing happened after the race. As I visited the same page to check the stats once again about 10 minutes to five, the firmness stats were displayed as 11.6, and the WCR 9.8%and 8.1%, respectively.

What on earth hapened!? How could the condition change so drastically in less than two hours!? Besides, weren't the stats supposed to be announced once a day? How come they changed, then?? I wish someone can give me a good explanation.

The End

Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. Speaking of explanations, there was another thing I demanded explanation of; why do the character behind the cursor keep vanishing when I try to correct typing errors? This, though has already been solved so let me move on to the biggest event of the year, Arima Kinen.

Weekly forecast for Kanto area says there's a slight chance of rain or snow possibly, from Friday night to Saturday. As I always say, it could effect the track condition so I must stay on alert, especially after I've seen the drastic change in Kyoto.

The course condition of Nakayama as of last Sunday is similar to Kyoto, with the ground firm while turf is containing enough water meaning, that front runners and inner post starters will have the advantage. Horses that stay behind starting from outer posts are not likely to reach the top unless the pace gets tight.

Currently, my recommend is Do Deuce. I mentioned at the time of Japan Cup that Do Deuce might be at its prime and has now entered its jackpot stage. If the turf condition is similar to that of last year, there's no reason to distrust him. Above all, Yutaka knows how to draw out the best from Do Deuce. That is reassuring.

The End

Caterpillar

8:21 p.m. Do Deuceis already sitting in the center of my head, but I'd like to challenge assumptions to think of cases where Do Deuce could lose.

I would say that'd be a tight-lapped grueling match on soft track. Do Deuce possibly harmonizes well at a higher pace, but since he's already won two G1 races in a row (Tenno-sho and Japan Cup), there's a chance for piled up damage to surface and backfire.

Also, Do Deuce hasn't performed well on soft track meaning that he's a speedstar and not one of those muscular power horses. So if the track gets soft or muddy, Do Deuce will be gone from the podium, though that's not likely to happen so far according to the forecast.

The question will be, which horse to buy together with Do Deuce? Someone said front runners would be the expectant candidates, and I agree to that. It's hard to think Do Deuce would be taken over while his fastest time for the finishing three furlongs has recoreded 32.5 seconds in Tenno-sho, followed by Japan Cup's 32.7 seconds. That said, front runners would have a better chance if they could keep the pace at average.

I'm not sure which horse would take the lead at this point yet, Ho O Biscuits or Bellagio Opera, but whichever takes the lead at its own rhythm will get the chance to challenge DoDeuce. As a matter of fact, I'm secretly hoping Meisho Tabaru could enter the race.

The End

Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. The ballotting for Arima Kinen barriers has been livestreamed while I was having an online meeting with a client. And here's the result of the ballotting:

Since Meisho Tabaru couldn't make it, it's likely for Bellagio Opera to take the lead. If so, it's highly possible to be a recap of Tenno-sho, a perfect race for Do Deuce.

The remaining concern is the track condition, in other words whether it rains or not. The forecast is predicting some rain over Nakayama from around 18:00 to 20:00, Saturday evening, although the precipitation is assumed to be 1mm per hour.

The End

Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. As you might already know, Do Deuce has scratched off from Arima Kinen. It's a pity. I wish I could have seen Do Deuce end his career with three G1 wins in a row, but the decision was made because of the horse's lameness, so that can't be helped.

It surely was a surprise, though. The odds-on favorite scratching off from Arima Kinen after the barrier draw is something I haven't seen in my time. Stupid Cow literally screamed for as long as five seconds hearing the news.

When it comes to calling the race, it doesn't really matter if my recommend is gone. I'll just find another horse suitable enough to key. After all, my goal is to win the race.

By the way, I've seen articles with Shahryar's crew saying that Shahryar is going to take the lead. Personally, I don't think Shahryar could keep the top until he passes the finish line, though if he does take the lead, that might tighten the pace a little bit more, which is otherwise assumed to be slow.

As for the Nakayama turf condition, the ground is frim while the turf is wet and time consuming as good to firm at the point of 10:30 this morning, thanks to the watering that's said to have been done yesterday. Will keep checking.

The End

Caterpillar