9:17 p.m. Exhausted. I had to get over with some urgent work and it's this late already! I haven't really had time to do anything yet while the entry has been closed.

And after going out in this heat to just to console Mr. N-jima, the old guy wanted to go to this unagi place whre he is a regular but it turns out the place has been booked full, thus ran out of unagi.

We ended up in a nearby izakaya, a yakitori izakaya. The food was good but not enough, that I got hungry after I got home. The least blessing is that we made a reservation at the unagi place for September, so there's something to look forward to.

Haven't had the time to dig deeper into the relationship between Elm Stakes and Marine Stakes. I'm not so sure if I could trust this year's Marine Stakes group, as the race was run in a wet and fast condition. Elm Stakes is likely to be run in dry condition.

The End

Caterpillar

9:50 p.m. Had work to do, cleaning to do since I've skipped it Wednesday, messages to reply, phone calls to call back, and no time. Not even time to go out for my daily exercise. What's with all the interruptions? Colonoscopy isn't such a big deal, is it?

And when I finally sit down at the desktop, news reports that Taiga Tsunoda has been charged penalty. It said that the young jockey has driven his car onto the turf course of Hakodate Race Course, because he thought it would be a good spot to spectate the fireworks display held at Hakodate Port. What the...!?

Resultingly, the saddle of 14 horses running over this weekend has gone empty, including Verdad Imeru running Elm Stakes. Well, it doesn't bother me much anyway. I don't have any plans betting on Verdad Imeru not at this point.

This is not the first time Taiga behaved ill. Hate to have to say this, but the kid is apparently spoiled and needs a serious punishment.

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Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. It's been a quite busy week, thanks to the meeting with Mr N-jima. All the tasks planned for Wednesday afternoon have been moved afterwards putting a strain on my other tasks. I haven't been able to fully focus on calling Elm Stakes either, what with the Olympic Games starting along with all the interruptions.

I barely narrowed down the candidates from 14 to 7, which is just about half and I need to delete at least another horse. I'm torn between Natural High and Dura Erede, and haven't been able to make up my mind yet.

It looks like Sapporo has had some rainfall this evening after today's races have ended, so it might be better to wait till tomorrow to be sure about the track condition. If the dirt is wet, I might keep Natural High. Or, I might even let go of both horses regardless of the track condition.

Other surviving horses on my list besides Natural High and Dura Erede are Ca Va, Mitono O, Peisha Es, T O Drefong, and Promised Warrior.

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Caterpillar

7:53 p.m. I've done it again! Another blunder! I kept Dura Erede on my wheel but have keyed Natural High because the track condition was wet! Even more regretful was that I thought Peisha Es could win!

The only horse I deleted from last night's list was Mitono O and I was right about that. But then I picked the wrong horse to key again. Maybe I shouldn't force myself to choose a horse to key when my preparation is incomplete.

Come to think of it, though my preparation is almost always incomplete. Should I buy box, then? Naw, I just can't accept that I have to pay for the patterns I'm not intending to buy, even if it makes me win. It's against my rule.

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Caterpillar

8:11 p.m. I'm thinking of calling Kokura Kinen this week. It's not Kokura Kinen at all, though since it's held at Chukyo. It's so confusing when JRA holds Chukyo Kinen at Kokura and Kokura Kinen at Chukyo.

Have just checked out the features of Chukyo turf 2000m. It's good that I did, because I'd forgotten that the course has been renewed in 2012. My impression of Chukyo 2000m has always been counterclockwise, flat, and tight-curved. But it's been renewed as mentioned, with the third and fourth corners spiraled, the homestretch extended to 412.5m which is th fourth longest stretch following Tokyo, Niigata, and Hanshin.

The most drastic change made by the renewal is the uphill made on the homestretch, which is the second steepest slope following Nakayama, climbing 2 meters. It sounds like a pretty tough course, doesn't it?

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Caterpillar

7:51 p.m. Just as I was about to check the past results sincie I finished checking the course features, I found out that Kokura Kinen was never run on Chukyo before. It must be related to the Hanshin renewal, but I'm sick of all the confusion due to the course replacements year after year.

There's nothing I could do about it, though so will just have to accept reality but it is annoying. Annoying, indeed.

Because it's the first time ever for Kokura Kinen to be held at Chukyo, I'll refer to Kinko-Sho, possibly the most recent grade race run on Chukyo turf 2000m. The front runners are doing well but horses keeping their positions around the middle are peforming better.

I guess the course setting gives advantages to horses with long-lasting speed. The front runners might hang in depending on the situation.

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Caterpillar

7:42 p.m. I Took a look at the weekly forecast of Toyo-ake City, in Aichi Prefecture where Chukyo Race Course is located and it's probably not going to rain until next week. Come to think of it, the forecast on TV was saying Nagoya is being hit by a heat wave with the high hitting 37 or 38 degrees for a couple of days. Looks like it's going to last.

If it's not going to rain, the track is likely to get frim and fast. According to the announcement by JRA, there seems to be a slight damage left on the inside turf from the third corner to the last but apart from that the turf condition is good. I need to check Saturday's race results to make my final decision, though.

Given the condition, horses need to get as well as keep a good position to perform well especially, when the pace is not going to be tight. Because of the course layout, Chukyo 2000m rarely runs in a tight pace. It feels like I'm closing in, don't you think?

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Caterpillar

9:02 p.m. I had a lot to do today. And I haven't finished them all yet. There are still some tasks left, but let's call it a day since I've strived enough.

Meanwhile, the entry for Kokura Kinen has been closed and I'm looking at a racing form with only 12 horses entered. Well, that can't be helped, I guess. Who would want to enter a race run in 38 degrees?

Referring to the past results of Kinko-sho, Chukyo turf 2000m seems to advanatage inner post drawers. The inner post drawers would be even more advantaged in a small-field race. Because the pace probably won't be tight, the more inner post drawers would be advantaged. You might say that only inner post drawers could perform well.

Nevertheless, one always needs to be aware of horses drawing outer posts and yet can perform well like Prognosis. These are horses that either have won a G1 before, can bring out the sharpness of the early 33 seconds range for the last three furlongs, or simply can go up front.

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Caterpillar

7:42 p.m. The barriers for Kokura Kinen has been drawn and announced. Of the top three favored in expected win odds, the third-favored Refraiming has drawn the innermost post number 1. I'm afraid he is the only horse that has drawn an inner post in the top 3 favored.

The other two horses Deep Monster and Sirius Colt, the first and second favored in expected win odds respectively, have drawn outer posts 7 and 11. Both horses could go up front if need be, but Deep Monster is carrying 58.5kg, the heaviest weight of all. The horse would be put in a difficult position, in case if his position drops behind.

Concidering the pedigree background, Duramente decsendants also perform better starting from outside barriers as well as Deep Impact descendants. However, I can't be so positive about Saint Camellia despite her 53kg weight, beause she seems to take her position usually in the back.

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Caterpillar

8:44 p.m. Weren't I working hard to win this week? Didn't I start early to get it right this time? Then why am I struggling now? Why am I at a loss?

I think it's because the level of Kokura Kinen this year is too low. I mean, it hasn't been a high-level race in spite of the fancy title, "Summer 2000 Series" for as long as I can remember, since it's run in mid-summer, but I have a feeling it ws slightly better a decade or so ago.

Only 12 horses running this year, with only one grade race winner, the horses are all apples and oranges I don't know what to do. My motivation is also waning and I'm quickly losing interest.

I'll put down the names of horses that are still remaining on my list just to keep my motivation. Reframing, Memory Raison, Verona City, Sirius Colt, Deep Monster and Saint Camellia.

The End

Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. As a matter of fact, I was close to winning.

From the six horses left on my list of candidates, I eventually picked Refraiming to key on my wheel. At the last minute, I became doubtful of Deep Monster, but decided to keep him on my wheel instead of replacing with Costa Bonita.

The thing is I had to keep both Deep Monster and Costa Bonita. Memory Raison and Sirius Colt were the boobie trap. I regret buying them. If only Costa Bonita had been asleep in the back, I would have won and the payout must have been more since Verona City was the 8th favored, grrr.

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Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. Okay, next. Up next is Sapporo Kinen, the only G2 in the summer races.

My first impression at seeing the entry list was disappointment since Prognosis stood out as the defending champion. But come to think of it, Sapporo Kinen is not so friendly to repeaters.

In the past 10 years, there's actually no horse that has won this race two years in a row. The closest you can get is Sungrazer, the winning horse of 2018, though the horse was beaten by Blast Onepiece in the following year by a neck.

Besides, I can't be sure about Sapporo's weather this weekend. Typhoon Maria is currently moving across Tohoku already flooding the Pacific side with two more following right behind. If a typhoon hits the weekend, there will probably be considerable precipitation. It could be a blessing to some horses but a curse to the others.

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Caterpillar

8:37 p.m. Once again, checking out the features of Sapporo Race Course.

Covered with equine turf, Sapporo Course is known for its toughness that tends to consume more time and stamina compared to other JRA courses. It has less ups and downs so you might say Sapporo is one of the flattest course among JRA's local race tracks.

The corners are tighter than main race courses like Tokyo or Hanshin however, Sapporo's corners are spiraled. This means that horses are required stamina and long-lasting speed in order to perform well on this course.

The requirements for high-performing horses seem to match the description that I left on last year's notes. Let's take alook at them tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. "Because Sapporo Kinen runs on equine turf, it gets tough. Especially, when the track softens," says my notes from last year. So as I already mentioned, Sapporo turf 2000m is tough, tough, and tough, nothing more nothing less.

Not to mention, the same toughness is required for female horse, too. There were seven female horses that finished within third place in the past 10 years, and five of them had finished in top 3 in Oaks. That makes sense since performing well in a 2400m race is considerably tough for a 3-year-old female horse.

The remaining two female horses that performed well in Sapporo Kinen are Sodashi and Normcore, What the two shared in common was that they'd both won a female G1 before running Sapporo Kinen, and that they had the Vice Regent line in their background.

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Caterpillar

8:26 p.m. In fact, horses running a mile race before Sapporo Kinen have been performing pretty well. In the past 10 years, five horses from a mile race have finished above third place in Sapporo Kinen (note that Sungrazer has done it twice). Five out of ten, is not a bad ratio.

What's worth remebering is that the mile race these horses ran before Sapporo Kinen were all Yasuda Kinen, and that they'd all lost in Yasuda Kinen. This suggests that high performers of Sapporo Kinen should be competing in a race as high level as Yasuda Kinen, though not straining themselves too much at the same time in order to avoid leftover damage.

The entry has been closed today, and two horses are entering this year from Yasuda Kinen, Geoglyph and Stella Veloce. I wonder which I should choose? Maybe I'll keep both.

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Caterpillar

20:20 p.m. I've been stuck at home all day because of the typhoon. I had a full day's time. Then why, oh why hasn't my preparation moved forward if only for a wee bit? How could I have dozed off when I haven't finished my tasks for today yet?

Life is hard. The barriers have already been drawn and Prognosis has drawn an outer post just like last year. There's no reason to avoid the horse unless his condition is obviously not good, I'm afraid.

The only thing I managed to do today is to check the condition of Sapporo turf. They're running races using the C course from this week, with the temporal fence covering the damaged inner part of the turf. Nevertheless, I'm assuming horses that performed well on good to firm or soft tracks would be safer choices especially, for inner post drawers.

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Caterpillar

9:50 p.m. Since I wasn't prepared while I had my daily housework to get rid of, I had to call Sapporo Kinen in a hurry. Still, it got this late. Sorry about that.

Cutting right to the point, I'm left with mainly four horses, Boccherini, Shahryar, Stella Veloce and Prognosis. As mentioned earlier, I can't ignore Prognosis. I'd have to buy Prognosis. After all, the horse has performed outstandingly last summer. I'd have to admit Yuga is doing well concerning Sapporo Kinen, too.

It's just that I'm not sure if Prognosis could win. I mean, I won't be surprised if he wins, but the horse is a year older and I won't blame the horse if he's beaten by a slight gap. So the best I guess, would be to key Prognosis on a trio wheel shutting eyes to the odds.

Perhaps I might add Geoglyph or Chuck Nate on my wheel, just to cheer me up a bit.

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Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. I didn't buy North Bridge at all, so my loss can't be helped. I knew the horse would probably go up front and that it would greatly benefit the horse, but I just didn't want to include him in my list. I rather hoped other horses to beat North Bridge.

But then, Prognosis struggled at the start to drop his position way too behind while the pace wasn't tight. Since Prognosis had to sweep up the outside to catch the front runners, he was forced into a tight corner at this point. I don't know why Prognosis made a fuss in the barrier, though.

So again, one horse missing from my betting tickets. I wonder how long this would go on?

The End

Caterpillar

6:52 p.m. Starting earlier today.

Reflecting on Sapporo Kinen, I should have keyed either Geoglyph or Stella Veloce since I weighed heavily the two horses running in Yasuda Kinen, previously. I just wasn't sure which to choose from the two, though as a result, it didn't matter which as they finished respectively second and third.

What decided their position in the end, I think, was the barrier. Geoglyph drawing the inner post finished second, while Stella Veloce drawing the outer post finished third. From an objective standpoint, Stella Veloce was rather risky considering that the gap between Prognosisi that finished in fourth place was only by a neck.

Therefore, the horse entering Sapporo Kinen previously running in Yasuda Kinen, with a G1 win or runner-up achievement in their debut year or in the classics, could be trusted enough to key if it draws an inner post in Sapporo Kinen. Additionally, the horse needs a good enough result to back up its potential for the tough Sapporo equine turf.

Not that I've won Sapporo Kinen if I'd keyed Geoglyph as I didn't buy North Bridge.

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Caterpillar

5:56 p.m. The summer races are almost over and we're having Keenland Cup this week.

As a sprint race in Sapporo aimed to be a step for Sprinters' Stakes held at the end of September, many horses are entered including Namura Clair and Big Caesar, though most of them are sprinters wanting to win one of the summer sprint series that's almost coming to an end.

Thus, it's easy to imagine Namura Clair and Big Caesar would be favored. The expected win odds on the entry list of netkeiba.com shows Namura Clair as the most favored as expected, and huh? Satono Reve is the second favored? Not Big Caesar? Ah, because Satono Reve has beaten Big Caesar in Hakodate Sprint Stakes and Damian Lane is going to be riding this time, I see.

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Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. Let's start looking at the past results of Keenland Cup. The reason I do this every week is because I think trend changes with time and circumstance.

Basically, younger horses tend to perform better in this race due to the lighter weight they carry. 3-year-old female horses especially, have the advantage in this sense. But it's not that easy to finish in the top 3 competing against older horses.

Two 3-year-old female horses have won this race in the past 10 years, Lei Halia in 2021 and Blanc Bonheur in 2016. What these two horses had in common was that they both carried 51kg, possibly the lightest weight set for Keenland Cup.

As for 3-year-old male horses, three have finished in the top 3 of Keenland Cup in the past 10 years, Win Marvel (2022), Danon Smash (2018) and Shuji (2016). You might also keep in mind that the weight they carried were either 53 or 54kg.

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Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. After checking out the 3-year-old female horses that performed well in the past, I can't be so sure about Etes Vous Prets, the only 3-year-old female horse entering Keenland Cup this year, though she seems to be the third favored in expeced win odds as of today.

Same goes for Danon McKinley, the only 3-year-old male horse entering this year. It's not just about the carrying weight, but I'm simply doubtful about these two 3-year-olds performing well. So I turn to the next generation, the 4-year-olds however, this is the untrustworthy generation as I've been calling them.

Obanburumai, Session, and Big Caesar are from this generation, though I don't feel like keying them. At least, not at this point. In the end, I could settle for Namura Clair since she could still carry 55kg, which is almost cheating in my humble opinion.

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Caterpillar

9:00 p.m. As usual, have been driven with things to do while the barriers have been drawn for Keenland Cup.

Despite being a sprint grade race, I don't see a horse that wants to shoot out and take the lead, so the pace could drop to a moderate speed. Even though it's unlikely to have a soft track, it would become difficult for trailers to perform well if the pace isn't tight.

Namura Clair has drawn an inner post, which assumingly should be better for the horse than outer posts. If it's not going to rain and the turf stays dry, it would be hard not to key her for Keenland Cup, I guess. And if it rains, there's absolutely no reason to avoid Namura Clair.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. Though tired as usual, I'm in good mood today since work went well. It made me realize once again, that you sometimes need to look at things from the outside, from an observative pont of view.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure if I was able to look at Keenland Cup from an observative standpoint because Namura Clair had been stuck in my head all along. I just can't imagine her losing big carrying only 55kg even if this was only a step race for the sprint G1.

The only pattern I could think of Namura Clair losing is when the front runners didn't stop. So I'm buying mostly front runners keying Namura Clair. On the wheel would be Morino Dream, Cinnamon Stick, Etes Vous Pret, Satono Reve, and Big Caesar.

Come to think of it, I might replace Etes Vous Pret with horses like Purpur Ray or Danon McKinley that would surely go up front.

The End

Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. Namura Clair has screwed up the race. The rider has decided to lead her up front possibly considering the track condition, but it backfired. It wasn't Namura Clair's usual race. Can't blame it as Keenland Cup was suuposed to be a step for Sprinters' Stakes.

I thought Satono Reve could perform well, though I didn't expect him to win. Let alone, I didn't think A Shin Spotter as well as Obanburumai would do that well. Didn't expect A Shin Spotter to be in that position around the middle while he usually stays way back. Just shows how good a jockey Magic Moreira is.

Judging from the result, I'll have to say that the turf condition was better, much better than the annual Sapporo course, since the winning clock was more than a second faster. I guess that's the main reason for my loss since I persisited on front runners starting from outer barriers. As you can see, the top five finishers were all inner-post starters except for Satono Reve that went up front.

The End

Caterpillar

8:21 p.m. Exhausted after work and shopping. Will do my best not to doze off.

The summer races will finish with this week's Niigata Kinen and the step races for the fall G1 rces will be starting. So Niigata Kinen would be the last race to fully enjoy the summer race features like the track bias, weight difference, and the course aptitude.

Niigata Kinen tend to be run at a leisurely pace and thus likely to become an instantaneous speed contest, is how I see the race. Also, the freshness as well as lighter carrying weight is important, so I usually buy 3-year-olds unless they have left-over damage.

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Caterpillar

8:19 p.m. Let's look at the stats for Niigata Kinen.

The feature of Niigata turf 2000m is that the backstretch is long. Very long, as it stretches for 948 metrs from the start before heading into the third corner. And then the homestretch is also 659 meters long, which means it's a tough course for front runners.

The pace doesn't usually get tight and thus it usually turns out to be another instantaneous speed contest. I still remember the sensation of Karate winning this race, followed by You Can Smile and Feengrotten, which resulted in a huge payout of over 700,000 yen.

Freshness is also the key to winning this race next to the sharpness of the last three furlongs, as you can see in the past ten years' results that 3-year-olds are doing pretty well. Already deducing that much, the expected win odds is pushing Light Back to the most favored.

I think we need a bit more twist, though.

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Caterpillar

7:06 p.m. Sorry I skipped yesterday. I had to take care of an unavoidable situation.

In the meantime, the entry for Niigata Kinen has been closed with just 12 horses this year. The field is even smaller than last year's 14 horses, which was the second smallest field running Niigata Kinen in the past 10 years following 2018's 13 horses.

There is a similarity between the results of these two years 2023 and 2018, that the inner post starters accounted for the top three finishers in both years, while that wasn't always the case in other years when Niigata Kinen was run with a bigger field of horses.

Well, regarding a small-field race, the inner post starters will be advantaged when the pace drops so the results seem to make sense.

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Caterpillar

7:10 p.m. It looks like Niigata won't be affeted by typhoon Shan Shan despite all the flooding news brought from all over the nation. The turf condition anounced today suggests a firm, fast track condition. Must be on alert, though since things can change drastically according to whether it rains or not.

Meanwhile, the barriers have been drawn and Light Back drew post number 2, which I think, can be very much advantaged given that the race is run in a slow pace. On the othe hand, Red Radiance and King's Palace, the second and third favored in expected win odds have both drawn outer posts 12 and 9, respectively.

As mentioned earlier, the barrier could draw the line between the high performers and the others. After all, the drawn barriers can't be changed. It would be better for outer post drawers to take their positions up front than staying in the back.

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Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. Very sleepy after work. I'm also wavering since I found out that female horses haven't been doing well in Niigata Kinen. There weren't many female horses that entered in the first place, let alone a 3-year-old.

In addition, it seems it rained a bit in Niigata today and the turf condition was annonced to be good to frim from Race 9. Forecast is not predicting rain for tomorrow, but then it rained today while they didn't expect it yesterday.

Have barely narrowed down the candidates to half, though have zero confidence. There are too many uncertainties at the moment, that I can't quite make up my mind. Still, I think I'll give Light Back a pass this time considering she could drop her position.

Ooops, I almost forgot. The horses currently remaining are Gold Princess, June Aoniyoshi, Seleccion, King's Palace, Edel Blume, and Red Radiance. Might give up Edel Blume, though.

The End

Caterpillar