7:38 p.m. Let's turn to Kyoto Dai-shoten. Well, as you might already know, it's one of the most sound race of all grade races which sounds uninteresting.

Kyoto Dai-shoten is also run on the opening week of autumn Kyoto just like Mainichi Ohkan at Tokyo, so the key points in winning is basically the same. However, Kyoto turf has been overused in spring due to the Hanshin renewal, so it will be crucial to judge correctly how well the turf has recovered after the spring races have finished.

As it will be a D'erby distance race, the pace tends to lag, which again, benefits the front runners and inner post drawers. Unless the track condition gets soft (or the inner part of the course is unexpectedly harshly damaged), outer post drawers that can't take their positions up front will be unnecessary.

The End

Caterpillar

8:12 p.m. Uh-oh. I just checked the forecast for Kyoto and it says much rain is expected in the later half of this week.

If it rains three days in a row starting tomorrow like the forecast says, the track could become close to soft. In that case, horses with more power might have a better chance at finishing in the top 3.

Running in Takaraduka Kinen previously, would raise the performance temporarily, though you have to make sure the horse is not tired or stressed. Having run in longer-distanced grade races previously, could also complement stamina in case the track condition is soft.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. The entry is closed for the weekend races. Mainichi Ohkan is running with 14 horses whereas kyoto Dai-shoten has only 11 with almost one third of the conpetitors from the three-wins class.

Wasn't Kyoto Dai-shoten a G2 race? It once was a step race for the autumn Tenno-sho although it's looking like a step for Japan Cup nowadays. It's a pity. Hope it won't be downgraded to G3.

I've been on the watch with the Kyoto forecast and it looks like the full-fledged rain will come on Friday and it will stop before the turn of the day. Saturday is expected to go without rain, and considering that the renewed Kyoto tracks have good drainage, the turf might dry off before Kyoto Dai-shoten.

The track condition can't be determined at this point, but it would be better to choose horses with long-lasting speed rather than instantaneous speed, as they would be required to cover the last four furlongs (not three) at top speed.

Also, the weight of drawing inner posts would increase since it's become a small-field race. All the more reason if the track condition tuns out to be soft.

The End

Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. Oops! The result of the barrier draw has already been announced!? Oh yes, it was Friday! I totally forgot about that since it's been hectic.

First, let's take a look at Mainichi Ohkan. Unless Ho O Biscuits loses control, there will be only one horse, Yamanin Salvum that is likely to take the lead. And the pace he sets probably won't be that tight, say, from average to slow. So the lookers with geat instantaneous speed like Sixpence will have the advantage, though it might not be so easy to win since he's starting from an outer post.

On the other hand, there could be a slight chance that the pace could get tight in Kyoto Dai-shoten. In that case it will become a stamina contest although the track condition didn't worsen to soft as I'd feared.

The End

Caterpillar

9:19 p.m. Fighting the after-work sleepiness as usual. I also had to race time as I was going to call two races, but then I couldn't stay concentrated long enough.

While I've been worrying about rain in Kyoto, the turf races in Kyoto today actually were run on firm tracks. Instead, it rained in Tokyo and the track condition has changed from firm to good to firm for the last three races run in the afternoon.

Geting it straight, Kyoto is likely to run on firm tracks tomorrow and Tokyo is likely to follow that if it doesn't rain any more. Perhaps the morning races in Tokyo could be run on good to firm, though I guess that won't last until late in the afternoon.

And what I squeezed out from my sleepy head for Mainichi Ohkan was a wheel keying Danon Ayers Rock with Yamanin Salvum, Sixpence, Yoho Lake, and Off Trail.

As for Kyoto Dai-shoten, I ended up with Satono Glanz, Keiai Sandera, Pradaria and Blow the Horn given, that the pace was slow or average.

The End

Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. I added Ho O Biscuits to my Mainichi Ohkan wheel thinking he might go up front but then, Danon Ayers Rock might has sunk in 6th place. I'd thought the horse would go up front but it didn't, so that can't be helped.

What's regretful is that I also added another wheel to Kyoto Dai-shoten, just in case the pace got tighter than I'd expected it would be. This wheel consisted of Meisho Breguet, Smart Phantom, Deep Bond and Pradaria, with Satono Glanz on the key. Imagine how badly I'm hurt, grrrr!

Well, one thing I learned today is that Kyoto tracks are firm and fast. It depends on how this week's weather would turn out, though it's hard to think the situation would change drastically. Let's keep it in mind when calling Shuka-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. I finally realized why I had to choose Chevalier Rose over Satono Glanz.

Satono Glanz hasn't been performing well after he turned 4 years old. He had earned several wins the year before including Kobe Shinbun-hai, which tricked me into believing he had the ability to do well in G2 even against older horses.

But then, Satono Glanz was a Deep Impact descendant that generally downgrades their performances when their prime time is over. Judging from his past racing results which are all in long distance races, it could be said that his prime time has ended with Kobe Shinbun-hai.

Chevalier Rose on the other hand, has joined long distance races over 2400m only two races ago with Metropolitan Stakes. Until then, he was mostly running mid-range distance from 1800m to 2000m, though he has merely finished in second place twice and third place once in the past two years since he last won in January 2022 in Kotobuki Stakes (3 wins class).

Despite his unimpressive results in the past two years in mid-range distance, Chevalier Rose suddenly improves his performance in his recent two races in long distance finishing third in Metroploitan Stakes and earning a second place without gap in G2 Meguro Kinen.

Chevalier Rose was obviously a better choice for Kyoto Dai-shoten, and the regretful thing is that I realize it now, not two days ago.

The End

Caterpillar

6:57 p.m. The weather forecast for Kyoto says it will rain until tomorrow morning, but the rest of the week will be sunny and fine weather will last until next Monday. Shuka-sho is likely to be run in good weather on firm tracks.

Assuming from last week's Kyoto Dai-shoten, I'm thinking that the finishing clock could be fast enough to be in the 1 minute 58 seconds range depending on the pace.

That would make it harder for horses staying in the back to finish in the top 3, unless they can finish the last three furlongs in 33 seconds range. It would be even harder for such horses to sweep all the others especially when they are starting from outer posts.

The only case I could think of for lookers starting from outer posts to change the game is when the pace becomes tight. Tight pace is actually not that rare concerning Shuka-sho, and half of the past 10 years have been run at tight pace.

Well, I guess the pace would largely depends on Sekitoba East.

The End

Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. I've double-checked the pace of Shuka-sho run in the past ten years and it turns out that there were only four times when the race was actually run at a tight lap. This can't be helped as the stats I referred to probaly decided the pace based on the first and last four furlongs, respectively whereas I decide it differently.

Additionally, these four times when the lap was tight were mostly run on good to frim or soft tracks, which might not be the case with this year's Shuka-sho. The remaining one was the yea 2015 run at a tight lap and on firm track condition, so I guess this could help me in calling Shuka-sho.

Bu then, just as I thought I found a good race to refer to, I realized that the 2015 Rose Stakes, the trial race for Shuka-sho had been run on Hanshin 1800m which is different from this year's Chukyo 2000m. Now this makes the situation complicated as Hanshin 1800m and Chukyo 2000m require different aptitudes.

I will have to keep that in mind.

The End

Caterpillar

8:23 p.m. As I was trying to pick up useful information from the results of the past 10 years, I came across the fact that most of the thirty horses that finished above third place in Shuka-sho have finished above 4th place in their previous races.

Of all thirty horses that performed well, 25 horses also performed well in their previous races (regardledd of the class) to finish above third place. From the remaining five, two horses respectively had finished either fourth or fifth place and there was only one horse that didn't even make it to the bulletin board in its previous race.

Looking closely at the five horses that finished in either fourth, fifth or worse place in their previous races, three of them were running Oaks before their previous races as well as improving their results from Oaks.

The remaining two horses were Mozu Katchan and Pearl Code. Mozu was running in Oaks actually finishing in second place behind Soul Stirling, but dropped her performance to seventh place in Rose Stakes. Pearl Code ran Flora Stakes, a G2 step race for Oaks finishing second, then losing in fifth place in Shion Stakes.

To wrap it up, horses that finished above third place in their previous races are good to buy. Horses that finished fourth or fifth place in their previous races can also be given a pass if they're improving their performances from Oaks. You can ignore the horses that finished lower than fifth place in their previous races, if they haven't finished above second place in a grade race two races ago.

The End

Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. The result of th barrier draw for Shuka-sho has long been released before I took my bike to the bike shop for a check-up.

Horses that might set the pace have drawn outer posts, so again, it will be up to Sekitoba East. In contrast to Cervinia who drew an inner post, Stellenbosch has drawn an outer post.

Stellenbosch would either take a higher position in the front or start moving fast considering the barrier.

The End

Caterpillar

8:33 p.m. Erm... I can't be sure enough to set the pace. I'm thinking it would be average to slow. If that comes true, lookers drawing outer posts will be unnecessary. On the contrary, horses going up front need to be valued.

Additionally, horses running the same distance or extending it are expected to perform better than horses shortening their distances, unless they are starting from inner posts when the experience of longer distance help them hang on in a slow pace.

Therefore, my temporary conclusion would be to key Cervinia, although unwillingly. On the wheel would be Chilcano, Koganeno Sora, Christmas Parade, Stellenbosch (I'm rather against it, though), and Sekitoba East.

I'm too tired and hungry to think more, so I'll sleep on it and see what I could come up with tomorrow. If I recover tomorrow, I might try to think of a tight pace version, which is approximately the opposite of the average to slow pace.

The End

Caterpillar

7:49 p.m. I pondered as usual way past midnight and early into this morning, finally decided I should have a plan B in case Cervinia couldn't live up to her expectations.

I thought Cervinia is a secure choice whether at a tight lap or slow, but the big loss in Ohka-sho was concerning. As long as she had to go through another long-distance transport, I couldn't put full trust in her as I did with Liberty Island last year. So I decided to buy another wheel keying Stellenbosch.

But at some point, my plan B wheel has turned into a wheel for when the pace became tight. As tired and confused as I was, I forgot that it was supposed to serve as an insurance when Cervinia did a blunder. So I keyed Stellenbosch and put Koganeno Sora, Admire Bell, Lavanda, and Sekitoba East on the wheel without including Cervinia.

I don't blame Bond Girl for finishing second, because that was my bad. I wasn't quite sure how to handle this Daiwa Major descendant. I cursed Yutaka a couple of times to be honest, though. After all, he's not going to beat Cervinia, so why couldn't he have satisfied himself with a fourth place?

The amazing one-short-of syndrome I've been suffering for a while has now turned into a lukewarm result.

The End

Caterpillar

7:28 p.m. No incoming message from Mr. N-jima so far.

The old guy has lost Shuka-sho gracefully by leaving out Stellenbosch completely, and boasted he's got today's races, assumingly Fuchu Hinba Stakes and JpnI Nanbu-hai to win. The zilch in messaging app suggests he lost both of them.

I, on the other hand, didn't bet on either of the mentioned races today, as I thought I should save up my money for the coming Kikka-sho. I thought Brede Weg would finish above third place unless something went wrong. If Masked Diva performed well too, the payout won't be that big. Same goes for Nanbu-hai. Everybody almost knew Lemon Pop would win, and if he brought Peptide Nile along, how much would the payout be?

I'd rather spend that money on Kikka-sho than on Fuchu Hinba or Nanbu-hai especially, when there are risks of losing in all three races.

The End

Caterpillar

8:16 p.m. Looking at Kikka-sho's entry form.

It seems Meisho Tabaru is the only horse that might want to take the lead, so the pace won't get that tight considering it's a long-distance race. If the pace doesn't get so tight, there's a chance for Danon Decile to perform well again, despite our tiny hopes that the D'erby win must have been sheer luck.

When considering the distance, it's unlikely that Meisho Tabaru would run away at breakneck speed as he did in Satsuki-sho. That would benefit horses performing well in their previous races. Moreover, rain is expected during the week and if dampness remains until the race, that would also benefit Danon Decile.

Yet I guess it's too early to make any decisions at this stage when the entry hasn't been even closed. Think I'll go watch the socer match instead.

The End

Caterpillar

7:41 p.m. Checking out the Kikka-sho results of the past 10 years. Similar to Shuka-sho, there seems to be few horses that have lost big in their prep races to come back and finish above third place in Kikka-sho.

Of the thirty horses that have finished in the top 3 in Kikka-sho held in the past 10 years including the two years held at Hanshin, only three horses have lost below fourth place in the most recent race they'd run before Kikka-sho.

Titleholder miserably lost in 13th place in Centlight Kinen after screwing up at the start (I still remember that), Clincher finished ninth place also in Centlight Kinen, and Air Spinel sunk in fifth place in Kobe Shinbun-hai. You might exclude Titleholder as Kikka-sho was held at Hanshin that year.

The only two things that Clilncher and Air Spinel share in common are that they'd both ran in D'erby two races ago, and although they didn't perform well in D'erby, they were both pretty favored in win odds in their respective prep races, Centlight Kinen and Kobe Shinbun-hai, Clincher, the fourth favored while Air Spinel was the second favored following Satono Diamond.

What I can assume from the odds is that the fans had high hopes for Clincher and Air Spinel, which might suggest that these horses gave the impression of having high potential that might grow to accomplish something big after a good summer's rest.

The End

Caterpillar

9:06 p.m. Have been busy all day but the barrier draw has been released without incident.

It's likely for Meisho Tabaru to take the lead, but there are several other horses that might want to go up front. Besides, there's no guarantee Tabaru could be controlled since he bolted off in his last workout. It might not be such a bad idea to daringly bet on the chance for a tight lap.

The End

Caterpillar

9:15 p.m. Darn, I've been driven with things to do and haven't had the time to spare for calling Kikka-sho. Just when the result of the barrier draw has been released a day earlier than usual.

My brain has been working all along even while I was getting done with my tasks, though. Yet something just doesn't feel right with Urban Chic. Well, I will buy him in the end, I know that. If you want to win, you can't avoid Christophe. But a Centlight Kinen winner?

I don't remember Centlight Kinen winners performing well in Kikka-sho except for Kitasan Black. They usually get favored in Kikka-sho and then dissapoint you with miserable results. How can anyone say that Urban Chic isn't one of them?

The End

Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. I'm not sure why, but the more I think with my weary head, the more it seems like the top-favored horses are unstable. After all, these horses are all running 3000m for the first time in their lives.

Danon Decile I believe, can handle the situation well if the race was run in slower pace than his previous race however, his previous race D'erby was run in a relatively slow pace that it's hard to think Kikka-sho will be run in an even more relaxed pace. Especially, when there are several horses that wnat to take their positions up front, while Meisho Tabaru might go out of control.

So I decided to key a different horse which I think, can live up to my expectation regardless of the pace, Redentor. On the wheel would be Danon Decile, Cosmo Kuranda, Urban Chic, Ecoro Walz, and Admire Terra.

I also have a plan B in mind in case when the front runners raise the pace. My plan B will key Redentor on a wheel of Mr G T, Byzantine Dream, West Now, Urban Chic, and Meliorem.

The End

Caterpillar

7:34 p.m. Sorry for skipping yesteday. Mr. N-jima was here and I couldn't get around to writing this "Murmur".

Kikka-sho turned out to be just like I imagined it to be. Meisho Tabaru didn't take the lead, but couldn't hold down his passion and sprang out to the front in the first homestretch while other front runners were also being impatient.

That can't be helped since it was Peace One Duc who initially took the lead. Automatically, the pace dropped and I feared it would advantage Danon Decile, though that didn't actually happen. Either because he got squahed in the field with most of the horses pushing and shoving up front, or because horses like Admire Terra and Cosmo Kuranda started to sweep up the outside provoking a sweeping battle I'm not sure, but Danon Decile gave up the race.

As it was an incosistent race with different horses coming and going it became a grueling match, not physically when the race was run at a tight lap, but rather mentally.

With Danon Decile gone, it brought a double win in both quinella and trio. I don't mind the not-so-big payout. I'm pretty happy that I finally won.

The End

Caterpillar

8:16 p.m. We're now fully into the autum G1 series to welcome Tenno-sho (autumn) this weekend. I haven't won more than two G1 races in a row and I would love to open a new door.

Killing my enthusiasm, though is the fact that the horses with higher possibility are already being favored, way before the barriers are even drawn, let alone the betting tickets selling.

As you might already know, the top three horses in expected win odds are Liberty Island, Lebenstil, and Do Deuce. The odds will probably be split among these three horses, which is quite natural since recent trend shows that only G1 winners and runner-ups are eligible for these top three seats.

You might consider Sungrazer as an exception, but this horse too had won a third place in Mile Championships, before finishing second following Rey de Oro in Tenno-sho (autumn) 2018.

The End

Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Let's see which of the entered horses have already won a G1 or finished second (possibly third) with little gap, since these are the horses that might have a higher possibility to finish in the top three of Tenno-sho.

First, the G1 winners. Justin Palace, Sol Oriens, Tastiera, Do Deuce, Bellagio Opera, and Liberty Island. Six horses.

Okay now, let's see if there are G1 runner-ups or third place finishers with little or no gap between the winning horses. Stella Veloce was second in Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes with only a 0.1 second gap, Danon Beluga's best performance was when he finished second in Dubai Turf with also by just three quartes of a length, which is equivalent to 0.1 seconds.

That's it. That's eight candidates in total, not including Lebenstil.

The End

Caterpillar

9:17 p.m. Busy as usual. When was the last time I felt relaxed enough to wonder what I will do next? And the result of the barrier draw for Tenno-sho was also already announced as usual.

Aha. The favored horses have all drawn good posts where they can perform their best. Except for Lebensstil. My impression of a Real Steel descendant was a powerful speed type that sweeps up the outside by force in a small-field race, which means they're not good starting from inner pots in a full-field race. But Lebensstil doesn't seem to fit that mould.

In the only two races he lost big in his career, he horse had started from outer posts. I can't be sure, though since the losses could have been caused by a number of complex factors combined.

The End

Caterpillar

8:58 p.m. Perhaps Danon Beluga might have drawn a bad post. It might not actually be a bad post, but ideally, Danon Beluga might perform better starting from an inner post.

Ho O Buiscuits is likely to take the lead, and if what I'm thinking becomes true, North Bridge would be in the second position keeping Ho O Biscuits in range though a good distance between them so that North Bridge feels like taking the lead himself.

It doesn't look like the pace is going to be tight as there is no Panthalassa, just Ho O Buiscuits instead. Besides, Iwata Sr. who is riding North Bridge wouldn't want the lap to be too tight for his horse.

Keeping all that in mind, it would be difficult for horses starting from the outer posts to perform well unless they go up front. Also, horses shortening the distance might have a difficult time, except for those starting from inner posts.

The End

Caterpillar

9:35 p.m. Getting hungry here. I couldn't spare time for my daily exercise as my client has used up all my precious time. Along with stupid Cow being a stresser for the past week, I am in quite a bad state.

Haven't been able to focus on the horses and now I'm losing not only concentration but also motivation. It feels like nothing matters anymore. Well, in the end, it would be the horses that have already won a G1, wouldn't it?

So I'm left with four of the top five favored horses, Bellagio Opera, Do Deuce, Liberty Island, and Lebensstil. How uninteresting! But if the pace lags to a slow against my will, then chances for Lebensstil would expand while Liberty Island might be driven into a tight corner especially, when her position is in the back.

I will keep Tastiera and Justin Palace, though just for a tight-lapped Plan B. Will not update tomorrow as Mr. N-jima is coming again, JFYI, regards.

The End

Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Aw, that was another terrible blunder!

I couldn't figure out which to key, Liberty Island or Do Deuce. So I keyed Do Deuce for a quinella wheel on which I put Bellagio Opera, Justin Palace, Liberty Island and Lebensstil. On the trio wheel which I keyed Liberty Islan, I bought Bellagio, Tastiera, Do Deuce, Justin Palace and Lebensstil. I decided not to buy North Bridge because I reached a conclusion he wasn't suitable for Tennno-sho.

So why didn't I include Tastiera on my quinella wheel, WHY!!?

It was shocking together with the news of Ohtani getting injured, but well, not to the point of depressing, though since it gave me proof on dark horses running Tenno-sho especially, when they've run Takaraduka Kinen previously.

I've also had an insight about Tenno-sho entrees that have previously run Sapporo Kinen and performed well in the race, thanks to North Bridge. I've been wondering how to handle them, so I can say that this year's Tenno-sho has been fruitful although I couldn't win.

And this is how I got another rain check on two wins in a row.

The End

Caterpillar

7:41 p.m. We're not having any G1 races this week, instead there's a G2 handicap race, Argentina Republic Cup, and Argentina Republic Cup is about Roberto line.

It's now probably widely known that horses having Roberto line in either of their sire or broodmare sire line have traditionally been performing well in this race acalled Argentina Republic Cup.

In fact, at least one horse having Roberto in their blood have finished in the top three of this race every year for the past decade, except for 2016. Meiner Virtus, having Roberto in his sire line has finished second in both 2021 and 2023 is entering again with his burning ambition for a win, despite his being 8 years old.

16 horses are entered as of today, while 5 horses, Admire Halley, Shonan Bashitto, Forward Again, Meiner Virtus, and Lagulf have Roberto in their background.

The End

Caterpillar

8:37 p.m. The important thing, though is to not get too caught up in pedigree backgrounds.

The blood lines can be helpful sometimes when grasping the features of an unknown horse or when guessing the turf condition. Although horse racing is often called "blood sports," experience has taught me it's not the only factor that decides the result of a race.

There are many factors that decide the race I believe, track condition, the number of horses in a race, the pace, course features, horses' condition, horses' biorythm, the weight horses carry, the rider, etc, and the pedigree background is just one among these numerous factors.

So I'm checking out the forecast now and it says that low pressure that was formerly a typhoon is passing through the nation this weekend, and there's a risk of heavy rain. Might as well stay on the alert for the track condition, then.

The End

Caterpillar