8:22 p.m. Sorry about skipping yesterday. I finally got around to updating my Windows10 to 11, but then it took me three hours to finish the process, humph. I should have expected that with Microsoft.

So now my desktop computer is updated to Windows11 and I'm looking at an unfamiliar interface. Just to let you know, I had to search for the power icon for a while, just like many of you must have done. I soon remembered it was Windows, though and hit the flag key to find it on my own.

The barriers have already been drawn and announced for Argentina Republic Cup while I was fiddling with the new OS and it looks like Chrominance, currently the most favored has drawn an inner post.

It depends on how the turf condition would turn out after tomorrow's rain, but I can't fully trust Chrominance at least, not at this point.

The End

Caterpillar

8:19 p.m. I didn't have work today and thus had more than enough time. Then why am I still struggling with Argentina Republic Cup?

The thing is, I can't be sure about the track condition while the pace is also uncertain. I need to have at least either of them stable to predict the result of a handicapped race, as I'm not a magician nor a psychic.

The best I could do in this situation is to call the race based on assumptions, so I tried to narrow down the candidates on the premise that the track condition would be either good to firm or firm, and the pace average to slow.

I got six horses left so far, Mixology, Chrominance, Meiner Memory, Meiner Virtus, Savona, and Seleccion, with only Meiner Virtus having the Roberto line. Well, I have a hunch that the race might become a bit closer to 2600m where Gold Ship descendants perform well.

Maybe I should keep Meisho Breguet too in that sense. Will ponder and decide by tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:32 p.m. That was too hard. This year's Argentina Republic Cup was too difficult for me to call right.

Looking back, I was quite confused and wasn't sure what to do from the beginning, because I couldn't find any horse that I could be confident enough to perform well in this race. Chrominance, Savona, Seleccion, they all had chances to perform well, yet they also had risks.

I tried to leave these horses aside and build up my call based on the apptitude against Tokyo turf 2500, but then all I could come up with was Meiner Virtus, Taisei Feerique, and Hayayakko. Taisei Feerique was a female horse which had never performed well in the past 10 years, while Meiner Virtus and Hayayakko were both 8 years old, generally, way past the prime of a racing horse.

Thus, I learned another lesson. That in races where the entrees are lame, too lame to win the race, old but experienced horses with certain accomplishments and high apptitude for that particular race would be better options.

The least blessing was that my betting was small.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. Having finished the reviewing and regretting on Arzentina Republic Cup, let me pull myself together to face Queen Elizabeth Cup.

But then again, the entrees appear to me unimpressive with only two G1 winners and no 3-year-olds from Shuka-sho. What happened to Stellenbosch? What about Brede Weg, last year's champion? What's Stars on Earth doing? Why isn't Liberty Island running when she didn't do well in Tenno-sho?

Since I can't make these horses run in Queen Elizabeth Cup, there's nothing to do but to wait for the barrier draw, check the track condition, assume the pace and pick the horses that have better shots at performing well. I see. So there's not gonna be any fun and games wondering which horse could handle the distance, or which horse could beat who.

It can't be helped, but I'm afraid Regaleira is going to be overwhelmingly favored, even if it's for a female horse race.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. I can't be complaining all day so I decided to check my notes about Queen Elizabeth Cup from last year.

It said, "speed for the last three furlongs is a MUST." It also said, "horses running previously in G3 or lower class are unnecessary." How brutally frank could I be?

Not to mention, I went on to check if these are true. In fact, there was only one horse finishing in the top three of Queen Elizabeth Cup "running previously in G3 or lower class". It was Clavel finishing in third place in 2021, previously running in Niigata Kinen, a G3 handicapped race.

We shall be careful, though since Queen Elizabeth Cup 2021 was run on Hanshin, not Kyoto. That means there isn't a horse in the past 10 years that performed well enough to finish in the top three previously running "in in G3 or lower class" when Queen Elizabeth Cup was run at Kyoto.

Isn't that quite decisive?

The End

Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. Looking into the other factor from my notes, "speed for the last three furlongs is a MUST".

Surely, horses that finished in the top three of the last three furlongs' in their previous races were performing well in the past 10 years. Excluding year 2022, 2021 and 2020 because Queen Eizabeth Cup was run at Hanshin, 13 horses out of 21 horses that finished above third place in Queen Elizabeth Cup wer in the top 3 in the fastest last three furlongs ranking of their previous race.

So that's why I thought the finishing speed was a MUST. The remaining 8 horses except for Mikki Queen when she run in year 2017, seem to have gone up front in their previous races, which explains why their last three furlongs weren't fast enough to be listed in the top three.

Will try and see if I could dig out anything about these 8 horses that went up front in their step races. It might help me pick the right horses this weekend.

The End

Caterpillar

8:34 p.m. Unfortunately, I haven't discovered anything the aforementioned 8 horses share in common, at least not yet. I don't see any certain factors that might have affected improving their performances.

All I can say now is that the conditions Queen Elizabeth Cup required were more closer to what these 8 horses do best than their previous races. It could be the barriers to some horses that don't want to be squashed in the field. Or the track condition, the pace, depending on each horse.

Well, Queen Elizabeth Cup rarely runs at a tight lap. There was a time when the pace became quite tough, but that was when the race had been run at Hanshin. So I guess it's natural for front runners to have the advantage especially when the pace becomes average.

If I'm forced to say, it may be better for these front runners to draw inner posts, inner than post number 9, since most of such front runners that finished above third place in the past 10 years started from younger post numbers, except for Loves Only You.

Perhaps you might consider Loves Only You an exception, though as she was the Oaks winner from the year before.

The End

Caterpillar

8:43 p.m. It's getting chilly here. Haven't turned on the heater yet, though. I'm hanging on since the forecast says it would get warmer next week. Here's the result of the barrier draw for Queen Elizabeth Cup, by the way.

Aw, Regaleira has drawn an inner post and now she's the most favored with the odds 1.1. Again, how brutally honest! I still want to believe in the rare chance when Regaleira screws her start.

The End

Caterpillar

9:02 p.m. Erm.. I don't know hwat to say. I mean, the level of the horses of this year's Queen Elizabeth Cup is so low I just don't know what to do with them.

Personally, I don't think Kyoto turf 2200m is not a race that perfecly fits Regaleira, but it's hard to think she would lose big against these lame competitors.

The pace probably won't be tight if Conch Shell takes th lead smoothly, and it will be an instantaneous speed contest from the downhill past the third corner.

I haven't decided which horse to key yet, but have narrowed down the candidates to 6 horses. Might take one or two off from the list later. The names of the horses left on the list are Wholeness, Lilac, Regaleira, Shinryokuka, Kimininawa Maria, and Saliera.

I still haven't given up hope for Regaleira to screw up the start to lag behind in the far end of field, so I'm thinking of buying quinellas without Regaleira.

The End

Caterpillar

6:34 p.m. Wow, what a complete defeat!

I eventually crossed out Kiminnonawa Maria and replaced her with Conch Shell, but that didn't matter in the end. The horses I bought finished in an admirable third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh place. It would have been a perfect win if I'd bought the top two horses, Stunning Rose and Ravel.

As a matter of fact, Ravel did cross my mind for a flash of a second. If the pace drops to a slow, she might swepp up the outside like Sol Oriens in Takaraduka Kinen. But then, I dismissed the idea as I thought the track condition can't be soft today. And look what happened.

Will take a nice hot bath, fill my stomach with Kenchin-jiru, and get to bed early on a day like this.

The End

Caterpillar

8:15 p.m. Reflecting on Queen Elizabeth Cup that I'd forgotten to take into consideration that the race was run on the outer course. To be precise, I did remember that, but had forggotten and skipped the important stage of checking the pedigree background.

You see, the outer turf course of Kyoto has more ups and downs as well as a longer homestretch compared to the inner course. Thus, horses performing well on the outer course is required long-lasting speed, rather than instantaneous speed. I think I've written that before.

The Vice Regent line or the Lyphard line are well known for passing down long-lasting speed. It might explain the reason why Stunning Rose won since Stunning Rose's broodmare sire is Kurofune. As for Ravel, she also has Vice Regent on her broodmare's side while having Lyphard in her sire line.

The pedigree clue could help me again. This week's Mile Championship will also be run on the outer course.

The End

Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Let's move on to Mile Championship. Looking at the results of the past 10 years avoiding 2020 to 2022 since the race was run on Hanshin turf.

Since it's a mile race, horses that performed well have all finished above 7th place in their previous races. When losing too big, it not only takes a lot of energy to recover, but also needs multiple advantages, which often comes from the track condition, the barrier, the pace, or the change in distance or positions.

Of the 21 horses that finished above third place in Mile Championship, 16 of them finished within fourth place in their previous races. That's over three quarters. See what I mean?

The remaining 5 horses could be divided into two groups, three horses that finished fifth in their previous races and two that sunk in 7th place. What both groups have in common is that the closest two races the horses have run before Mile Champioship were all above G3, and that they hadn't won in either of the two races except for Justin Cafe, who have won Epsom Cup (G3) two races before Mile Championship.

The End

Caterpillar

7:52 p.m. Mile Championship seems to have become an international race before I knew it. I'm not sure since when it started, but Queen Elizabeth Cup, Mile Championship, Japan Cup and Champions' Cup seem to consisit the "Japan Autumn International Series," and the top three winners of these races are entitled to a bonus system according to their finishing positions. No wonder international horses are entered.

Charyn is applicable cocerning Mile Championship, a four-year-old gray possibly, from the U.K. judging from his racing career. The question we all want to know the answer to is whether this horse is going to perform well on Japanese turf or not.

In my personal opinion, I think he would do well. I can't be assertive since I've never seen the horse run on Japanese turf, though his finishing record of Prix Jacques le Marois is 1 minute 33.98 seconds on firm. Besides, his father Dark Angel is also known as the father of Mad Cool, the winner of Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen this spring. Additionally, the horse is planned to retire from the races after Mile Championship and I can almost see the intention of the owner aiming to raise the value of the horse after its retirement with a bonus purse.

All that tells me it's too risky to let him off the mark.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. The mile course on Kyoto turf where Mile Championship is held has only one turn. It starts from a spur track and the distance to the third corner including the back stretch is 712 meters, which resultingly becomes the longest straight of all Japanese race courses except for the notorious Niigata 1000m. The only one turn cannot be called a corner of a track in my opinion, as it's a combination of two nearly perpendicular corners with a short straight in between, I'd say.

All in all, it gives me the impression of a "clockwise Tokyo mile". What I'm trying to say here, is that the course features would benefit horses that aren't dexterous enough to win at Chukyo, Kokura, or Sapporo, but do well on Tokyo or Niigata turf.

The entry has been closed in the meantime and 17 horses will be running this year, including a challenger from U.K.

The End

Caterpillar

7:34 p.m. So the barriers have been drawn.

Balsam Note might take the lead, but depending on the behavior of Labeling or Win Marvel, there's a chance the lap is going to be tight. Might as well consider a plan B again.

Brede Weg and Namur I think, can handle starting from inner posts, though I'm rather concerned about their conditions. Soul Rush originally performs better from outer posts but will have a hard time when the pace drops.

The End

Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. Too sleepy to think of anything, my brain has stopped functioning.

I'm currently at the stage of picking up potential horses according to the pace but I don't think I can go any further today. Will have to refresh myself and do what I can with what time I got left then.

I got Brede Weg, Matenro Sky, Charyn left regardless of the pace. Horses that are kept waiting for selsection are Namur, Soul Rush, Serifos, and Elton Barows. As you can see, I'm cocerned about the outer post drawers that drew orange and pink barriers. Having said that, I think it would be the front runners that'll have the advantage tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:51 p.m. Christophe! I wish Brede Weg were just a nose ahead of Win Marvel, even for a nose hair!

Despite my persisting to outer posts, I keyed Brede Weg because I thought she (and the rider) could break out from the inside, the most economical course considering the pace. But then the pace got tighter than I expected and since I hadn't prepared a Plan B, I lost the race again by a nose (or maybe a nose hair or a whisker).

Plan B was definitely necessary especially for a mile race because you don't know which the race would be inclined to, a "mile" mile race or a 7-furlong race. When the pace gets tighter than average, the race tends to get closer to a 7-furlong race, which benefits powerful speed type front runners that often tends to be monotonous.

And who said it would be the fornt runners that'll have the advantage? ME! Aaarrgh!

The End

Caterpillar

8:36 p.m. Let the past be the past. Okay, Japan Cup. The first question that comes up may be, "could Cervinia win?"

Obviously, Cervinia will be advantaged in the sense of the weight she carries 54kg, which is 4kg lighter than the older male horses. There's also the benefit of freshness.

After Cervinia brilliantly won Shuka-sho, I thought that this horse deserved to be a female triple crown winner and that the Ohka-sho blunder must have had a good reason to be ignored. At that point, I thought Cervinia would be a good cnadidate for Japan Cup.

But now when I think about Japan Cup more realistically, my trust in the horse is wavering. A Harbinger descendant? I can't recall any performing well in Japan Cup.

Will need to look into it closer to get rid of my doubts, I guess.

The End

Caterpillar

8:41 p.m. In spite of the interruption by my mom this morning, I worked hard and squuezed out some time to look into the backfround of Cervinia.

Harbinger descendants are known to perform well in tight-lapped, tough races, the tougher the better. I might say they are the opposite of Deep Impact descendants in that sense. The distance they do well at ranges from 1600m to 2500m, depending on the broodmare sire. For example, horses having Kurofune or Daiawa Major as their broodmare sire perform better in shorter distance (Norm Core, Namur), while horses with King Kamehameha as their broodmare sire such as Mozu Katchan, Blast Onepiece or Rousham Park, perform better in longer distance.

Additionally, Harbinger descendants having King Kamehameha as broodmare sires do well on wide turf courses with long homestretches.

Therefore, you can say that Harbinger descendants with Kig Kamehameha broodmare sires are good at tight-paced, soft track courses with a long stretch. That's what they all share in common. But if there are pros, there are cons.

After they win a high level race on power-consuming turf, they are only good for another race. They might win one more race, but that's it and their performance usually enters a descending curve.

The End

Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. Having reserached on Cervinia's background, I can't feel too positive about her for at least three reasons.

One, because it's hard to believe extending the distance to 2400m from Shuka-sho could benefit Cervinia, even though she has amazingly come back from her huge loss in Ohka-sho and became an Oaks winner.

Reason two is because I don't think Japan Cup is not likely to be a grueling match, which Harbinger descendants do well in. Reason three, Cervinia has already performed highly in her previous two races and there's a risk piled up damage could backfire (well, she's done that in Ohka-sho, no one can be sure she won't this time).

Moreover, not all 3-year-old female horses have performed well. I've just seen a headline screaming, "Data shows 66.7% place win rate for Shuka-sho group in the last 15 years; Cervinia as leading player," but if you unfold the "66.7% place winners" you can easily see that they are all top horses that never have lost below third place in the three female classic races, Red Desire and Harpstar included. I can't trust Cervinia who actually did a blunder in Ohka-sho, regardless of the reason.

It's true there are female horses that won Japan Cup while they were 3 years old, though those were special horses like Gentil Donna and Almond Eye that won the female tipple crown. Look at Daring Tact, also a female tripple crown winner and she could only make it to third place, though I admit Contrail and Almond Eye were too tough a rival to beat.

The End

Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. Because it's Thursday, the result of the barrier draw for Japa Cup has been announced and there will be 14 horses running this year. I thought there were 15 horses etered. Wonder who's gone?

I'm not sure about foreign horses, but apart from them I don't see any horse that might take the lead. Perhaps Stars on Earth since she drew the outmost post again?�@Na, I don't think Yuga would get the short end of the stick.

If the pace turns out to be slow, the front runners and trailers starting from inner posts will have the advantage, as I always say. Other than Justin Palace, most favored horses seem to have drawn the posts they can perform well.

The End

Caterpillar

8:52 p.m. Considering that the front runners and trailers starting from inner posts will have the advantage, Do Deuce would be the first choice. But then, the horse has never won consecutively apart from his debut year.

Besides, if the pace gets slow and Do Deuce stays behind like he usually does, he might lose his advantage, not to mention when Yutaka leads him to the outside on the homestretch.

If I look at the bright side, though Do Deuce has already experienced a quite slow pace in his previous race Teno-sho, where he harmonized perfectly to bring out that stunning last three furlongs. Perhaps the horse has grown mature enough to handle a sleepy slow race.

Another good thing is that Heart's Cry descendants tend to be late-bloomers. I don't know about other people, but I still remember the spectacular three G1 wins in a row that Lys Gracieux piled up at the end of her career. Who knows, maybe Do Deuce is entering the jackpot stage?

The End

Caterpillar

9:30 p.m. Tired, hungry and cold. As you might already know, stupid Cow is stingy enough not to turn on the heater although temperature is rapidly dropping. Also, I had to do the cleaning since stupid Cow was kind enough to invite Mr. N-jima again. That explains why I'm tired and cold. As for hungry, I don't think explanations are necessary.

Tokyo's turf condition today was officially announced to be firm despite the stats that suggested it was closer to good to firm. Still, the winning clock was fast following last week. Considering that JRA has watered the turf yesterday, I think the turf would be quite fast tomorrow, which is bad news for horses entering from Europe.

I decided to believe in the growth of Do Deuce that he has now reached his prime. The pace is not likely to be tight, so I think it won't be a grueling match unless something goes terribly wrong. Therefore, I will key Do Deuce on a wheel of Auguste Rodin, Cervinia, Durezza and Stars on Earth. If there's a horses that could beat Do Deuce, I can't think of any other than Auguste Rodin.

The End

Caterpillar

8:47 p.m. So Harbinger descendants were actually not fit for slow-lapped Japan Cup. Nevertheless, I think Cervinia performed well despite the mismatch, and I'm pretty sure she would win when she runs a race that suits her profile.

Do Deuce has proven to be in the jackpot stage as I'd assumed and I'm glad I didn't bend. Will have to stick to my belief as he still has another chance of doing well in Arima Kinen, depending on the situation.

That is, if Arima Kinen runs with more than 15 horses on a firm, fast track like 2023, while Do Deuce draws an inner post between post number 4 to 8, I wouldn't say as far as Do Deuce would win, but there's a high possibility he would finish above third place.

The End

Caterpillar

6:25 p.m. Okay, let's start thiking about Champions' Cup, now.

As I say this every year, the inner post drawers have full-on advantage in this race. For horses starting from posts outer than number 10, only the front runners can finish above third place. I'm reminding myself about T M Jinsoku every year so that I'd never forget.

Another thing is that speed, in other words instantaneous speed is essential in Champions' Cup. Horses that could run the last three furlongs from 35 to 36 seconds need attention. Whether the pace tightens or not, these lookers with great instantaneous speed will come flying on the homestretch like last year's Wilson Tesoro, or Westerlund in 2018.

I've learned it the hard way around, I shall make something out of it.

The End

Caterpillar

8:06 p.m. As I look at the names of horse entered in this weekend's Champios' Cup, naturally, the first that catches my eye is not to mention, Lemon Pop.

As a matter of fact, Champions' Cup is a race friendly to repeaters and there's been several horses that finished above third place more than twice in the past 10 years, such as Sound True, Gold Dream, or Chuwa Wizard.

However, not one of them has won this race two years iin a row. Well, at least for the past 10 years. So I took the trouble to go back 20 years and found out that there were two horses that have won this race twice in their career.

One of them was Transcend, the champion in 2010 and 2011. But the race was still run at Hanshin not the present Chukyo, though I'm not sure if that has any relation with the result.

The other was Kane Hekili, winning this race first in 2005 when it was still run at Tokyo as a 2100m G1, Japan Cup Dirt. What's special about Kane Hekili was that his second win in 2008 was a sensational come-back after recovering from a bowed tendon. By that time, the site of the race had moved to Hanshin while the distance had been shortened to 1800m.

The End

Caterpillar

8:29 p.m. Okay, now here's the result of the barrier draw for Chanpions' Cup!

Judging from the barrier draw, the pace could get tight like last year. Since the compeitors haven't changed much from last year apart from the new-comer Sunrise Zipnagu, it's likely to become a recap of last year.

But the fact that the horses have grown a year older needs to be considered with care. In other words, Lemom Pop might not perform as well as last year.

The End

Caterpillar

8:56 p.m. Dutifully typing in the stats to call Champions' Cup, thinking that perhaps keying Lemon Pop is not a very good idea.

It may be my imaginary fears, but I just can't wash away my concerns about the horse's condition. Last year, Lemon Pop won Nanbu-hai Mile Championship by a huge gap of two seconds. It is said that 0.2 seconds is equivalent to a length, so the gap can be interpreted as 10 lenghts.

Lemon Pop has run the same race this year possibly, as a step for Champions' Cup winning the race once again. But the gap between the runner-up Peptide Nile was a mere 0.1 second, which can be interpreted as a half to three quarters of a length.

There's also a 2.1-second gap between last year's winning time and this year's, not to mention it was slower this year. Even if I took last year's wet track condition into consideration, the difference of 2 seconds is something I can't just ignore.

The End

Caterpillar

9:12 p.m. Struggling to call Champions' Cup shivering in the unheated room. The biggest question is whether to key Lemon Pop or not.

I think Lemon Pop's performance is declining. Why else would the owner decide to have the horse retired? Nevertheless, I can't think that Lemon Pop would be defeated by the seven horses he'd already beaten last year.

If there's a chance for a generation change, Gaia Force seems to be the only one to put an end to Lemon Pop's career, but then, Gaia Force has drawn the outmost post, which noramlly is a huge disadvantage in Champions' Cup.

I'd probably key either Lemon Pop or Gaia Force, though am not decided at the moment. There are still six horses left to be put on the wheel and it needs to be carved down. The names of the horses currently remaining are Hagino Alegrias, Peisha Es, Seraphic Call, Wilson Tesoro, Sunrise Zipangu, and Mick Fire.

Might cross out Wilson Tesoro as he's inadvertently won JBC Classic this year.

The End

Caterpillar