8:10 p.m. I hate to have to say things like this every weekend, but I haven't been able to come to conclusion. However, I'm exhausted, stressed, sleepy, and unfocused at the moment, that I see no point in forcing myself to work longer.

Have just managed to cross out about half of the candidates. Guess I'll have to leave it here and see if I could finish tomorrow before the race especially, when the weather is unstable and I'm not sure what the track condtion might be like.

The remaining candidates at tis point are Red Mon Reve, Geoglyph, Romantic Warrior, Parallel Vision, Soul Rush, Win Carnelian, Voyage Bubble, Serifos, and Danon Scorpion. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'd like to revive myself with some beer and pizza after a nice hot bath.

The End

Caterpillar

6:52 p.m. I tried to narrow down the candidates, though was met with difficulty while I couldn't choose a horse to key either. The track condition was announced to be goot to firm, but I guessed it was rather close to yielding.

If the pace didn't get tight, the inner post drawers and front runners will be advantaged, so I decided to buy mostly inner post drawers. For horses drawing outer posts, I only bought Serifos because I thought he could take his position up front. And if the track isn't firm and fast, I thought I could trust Romatic Warrior so I keyed the horse on trio wheel with Gaia Force, Geoglyph, Namur, Serifos, and Parallel Vision.

As you already know, I lost because I didn't include Soul Rush in my wheel and I'm afraid we won't be seeing Mr. Moreira anymore.

The End

Caterpillar

6:47 p.m. As a result, keying Romatic Warrior ignoring my notes from last year was right. I didn't exactly ignore it, though. The idea of keying Serifos popped up in my head but then, Serifos had two problems.

One is that he was starting from an outer post while he peforms generally better starting from inner posts. Another problem was that Serifos ran Milers' Cup as a step whereas he chose Dubai Turf last year when he performed well in Yasuda Kinen. Moreover, Serifos was likely to downgrade his performance compared to last year.

On the other hand, Romatic Warrior had several advantages. It was the first time to run in a Japanese race, the distance was shortening from 2000 meters to a mile, the track condition has changed toward the horse's preferance. It looks like I had sense and cool nerve to make a logical decision, but not enough to keep Soul Rush on the wheel.

The End

Caterpillar

7:43 p.m. Discussed with Mr. N-jima how badly Gaia Force was ridden in Yasuda Kinen and we both agreed on the possibility of the horse winning or finishing second at worst, if the rider had been able to think ahead, choose the right position and course, and given the horse a go earllier than he actually did.

There's another thing on my mind about the race, which I need to check out but maybe I'll do it some other time. It's surely not now when I'm tapping on the keyboard racing the clock.

Haven't decided yet which race to call this weekend, Epsom Cup or Hakodate Sprint Stakes. I guess I'll wait and see until the entries are closed on Thursday.

The End

Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. Busy as always since last week. It's amazing how you get used to it, though. At the moment, I'm struggling with booting my old lap-top from a USB flash memory.

Taking a break, looking at the entry form of Epsom Cup, but it doesn't look like the race would end safe and sound. Currently, the most favored in expected win odds is Lebenstil naturally, because Christophe is riding. It doesn't look like this 4-year-old horse is suddenly going to win after the huge loss of Niigata Daishoten carrying 59 kgs, not to my eyes.

As for Hakodate Sprint Stakes, I don't even feel like looking at the entry form as there are 23 horses entered at this point. Okay, break finish. Let me get back to the USB boot.

The End

Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Erm... The entry for the weekend races have been closed, but it's hard to choose which race to buy.

Apparently, Lebenstil seems shaky. Yet there isn't a horse that stands out to be trustworthy enough to key at this point. Nevertheless, Tokyo should be easier to grasp the track condition, knowing how the weather has been for the past week.

On the other hand, the most favored in expected win odds for Hakodate Sprint Stakes Asakara King, also seems dangerous. Sure, the horse won Morganite Stakes after the momentum of his success in Hankyu-hai. That's exactly what I fear, though. Nothing comes from straining oneself too hard.

The End

Caterpillar

8:03 p.m. While I was sluggish, the barriers have already been drawn.

I just can't shake off my doubts for Lebenstil. Yet I would have to buy him if I choose Epsom Cup, since Chritophe is riding. But then, I don't think I've ever won Epsom Cup before. Okay, my mind's finally decided. I'll go for Hakodate Sprint Stakes this week.

Calling Hakodate Sprint is going to be hard, though. All I know at this point (and it's already Friday) is that Asakara King probably won't win. Well, I ought to quit mumbling and get to work.

The End

Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. That was hard, reeeeally hard to call.

Basically, I'm underestimating the 4-year-olds as you all might already know. But the older horses seem unreliable winning only in lower categories. As a result, I had to count on Lord Kanaloa descendants. Lord Kanaloa descendants perform well in sprint races especially, in Hokkaido.

Satono Reve will be the key since I've ditched Asakara King. On the wheel would be Carne Asada, Kimiwa Queen, Win Greatest, Jubilee Head, and Big Caesar. Cinnamon Stick and Sonnig are concerning, but I couldn't buy them all.

The End

Caterpillar

4:07 p.m. Yay! I didn't think the payout would be this much. I mean, it's not much but it's more than I'd expected. This is what happens when the most favored horse sinks in 9th place, ha!

To b honest, I wasn't really sure as I mentioned yesterday. In fact, I even felt regretful about not including Thousand Sunny, Cinnamon Stick, and Sonnig. I had to stick to my belief, though that Lord Kanaloa descendants are good with the given conditions and if/when compared between Lord Kanaloa descendants, it would be better to choose the horse drawing an inner post.

The experience of last summer's races also meant a lot to me. I've piled up losses but now I can see it wasn't for nothing. All in all, I'm amazed at the power of Lord Kanaloa descendants in sprint races. Maybe I can use this strategy for the summer sprint series? To the undefeatable Lord Kanaloa descendants!

The End

Caterpillar

4:18 p.m. I got up in the morning today. That's nothing to boast about, but for me it's special. I've been a night owl for so long and no matter how hard I tried to get up in the morning to lead a proper person's life, I've been failing all these years.

Yesterday I had to get up around eight to go out. Things went quite soothly and I was able to get in the bath before seven, had dinner around eight, and was able to make it to bed around one in the morning, which is something I just couldn't do for the past decade or so. But I did and although sleepy, I was abel to get up around nine or nine thirty this morning!

I'm hoping I could make use of this opportunity to get back on the right track. Checking out this weekend's races in good mood. Hmm, UHB-hai is a handicapped sprint race at Hakodate. Let me see if there any Lord kanaloa descendants entered.

There was one, yes, but this horse hasn't won a turf race, not even one. As a matter of fact, she's only won three races in her career. I wonder if she won't be scratched off?

The End

Caterpillar

4:22 p.m. Let's see what other races we have this Sunday. Okay, so there's the Mermaid Stakes, well that's a grade race all right, though it's limited to female horses. Let's take a look at the entrees.

I have to say they're pretty disappointing. I understand, yes, it's a G3, and it's only for female horses. But of twenty-four horses entered as of today, just 8 horses have won more than four races. The remaining two thirds of the entred horses have won less than three races. Shouldn't they try for open class or listed class races before entering grade races?

Now that I think about it, I remembered I've been similarly disapointed last year. And then, the race is going to be held at Kyoto this year, just like Takaraduka Kinen. Takaraduka Kinen is announced to be held on Kyoto this year instead of the usual Hanshin, due to renewal of the spectator stads. Darn, I wish JRA would quit replacing the site of grade races, it's so confusing!

The End

Caterpillar

4:54 p.m. The remaining race would be the main race of Tokyo, but like Hakodate, it's not a grade race. It's just a simple open class race on dirt 2100m, called Sleipnir Stakes.

Tokyo dirt 2100 meters is a unique setting, as you can guess. The only two races I can think of that are run under this condition are Brilliant Stakes and Sleipnir Stakes. That means there aren't much data I could refer to when calling the race.

Another thing that might make winning this race incredibly hard in my opinion, is that the requirements for high perfomance changes drastically according to the track condition. When the dirt course is dry and power-consuming, powerful front runners have the advantage but once it's wet and fast, horses staying behind could beat the others.

No, I don't think Sleipnir Stakes is a good buy.

The End

Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. Had to work this afternoon. And then, I had to go out to finish the payment for my online shopping because I needed the item as soon as possible. Not to mention, I'm tired and sleepy as is often the case with me after work.

The entry for the weekend races have been closed since it's Thursday, and I was thinking of choosing Mermaid Stakes in hopes of some rain, until I saw the weekly forecast and learned that there may not be any rainfall around Kyoto Racecourse after all. The weather has got me thinking again.

Well, nothing good comes out from a tired and sleepy head. Guess I'll decide tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

4:08 p.m. I've checked the forecast again, but so far the sky seems to hold for Mermaid Stakes. A temporary fence has been set on the turf course of Kyoto Racecourse to cover the damaged inner part to run the turf races on course D. From the JRA announcements, the turf condition seems firm.

Meanwhile, the barriers have been drawn and announced. If the pace doesn't get tight, Edel Blume, the current most favored in expected win odds looks stable, I'm afraid. I was hoping Mikki Gorgeous would draw an outer post, but that didn't happen.

Will have to sort out the rest later. I need to correct a document, set up the newly bought item that's been delivered this morning and test it, then go out to pick up some medicine.

The End

Caterpillar

7:41 p.m. It's been a busy weekend as usual and sadly, I haven't had the time (nor energy) to spare for Mermaid Stakes. I barely managed to set up the device that I newly bought yesterday.

I tried narrowing down the candidates and I'm currently down to nine horses, though yes, I know I have a long way to go. It looks like it's raining around Kyoto now, but it's expected to stop before midnight. The sky is expected to hold during the day tomorrow while the races are run.

As mentioned, I still have a long way to go before making my final decision. Here are the names of horses still surviving on my list of candidates, just for your information: Pin High, Mikki Gorgeous, Wholeness, Marinero, Costa Bonita, In the Ovation, Tagano Passion, Alice Verite, and Edel Blume.

The End

Caterpillar

6:55 p.m. I didn't include Alice Verite in my wheel. I bought trio wheels keying Edel Blume and Miiki Gorgeous just in case and spread by bets but cut off Alice Verite because I wasn't sure if she could take the lead at a tight pace.

Marinero, Costa Bonita, and Tagano Passion have been deleted from my list of candidates in the final stage of making my decision, and I'd also crossed out Alice Verite, trying to see what I can't see. Some things you never can see no matter how much you strain your eyes in the dark. The right thing to do in such cases is to simply give up and accept the situation.

What I lascked was the graciousness to give up the race. I was close, though.

The End

Caterpillar

4:17 p.m. So. We're having the final G1 race of this spring season, Takaraduka Kinen this weekend. Yes, it's that time already. But the thing is, it's going to be held at Kyoto this year, due to the Hanshin spectator stand renewal.

Hanshin turf 2200m and Kyoto turf 2200m I believe, can be quite different. The biggest difference in these two courses is that Hanshin turf 2200m has a steep uphill in the beginning and the last, while Kyoto gradually climbs up in the backstretch until it reaches the peak around the third corner and slopes down through the last corner. As a result, Hanshin advantages powerful and tough horses, whereas Kyoto needs more sustainable speed.

One of the features of Kyoto turf 2200m is that it starts leisurely, usually at an avrage pace sometimes even dropping to slow and moves on quietly until shortly before the third corner when many of the horses shift up their gears, speeding up until they reach their max speed on the homestretch.

Well, isn't this the kind of race pattern Do Deuce performs best in?

The End

Caterpillar

2:25 p.m. The next to come up in mind after Do Deuce probably would be Justin Palace (and Christophe, why, of course).

Justin Palace has won last year's Tenno-sho (spring) on the same course as this year's Takaraduka Kinen, although the distance was different and the track condition was good to firm. That means he can handle the course well. On the other hand, he hasn't performed well in Arima Kinen, despite his challenge two years in a row in 2022 and 2023.

I would like to dig deeper in to Justin Palace's behavior and results, since there must be some clues in them to decide whther to buy him or not. What if I didn't find any clues? Well, in that case, I could always keep him for insurance.

The End

Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. Sorry about yesterday, I forgot to upload.

The weekly forecast is predicting some rain around Kyoto for the weekend. This rain could become a game changer depending on how much it rains and for how long.

Do Deuce I think, can handle good to firm but is not good with muddy tracks as you can see from his losses in France. Justin Palace might not have any problem with soft track, though he could have other problems. Justin Palace doesn't perform well when the pace changes rapidly. I figured that is the reason why he didn't perform well in Arima Kinen.

There are several horses among the entrees that seem to be able to handle soft track condition such as Blow the Horn, Pradaria, or Deep Bond. The demon of soft or muddy track, though is definitely, Sol Oriens. Actually, the horse might have a chance if the track softens and the rider could save up the horse's stamina until the last minute.

The End

Caterpillar

7:14 p.m. Sorry for the delay, I had to get some work done. The result of the barrier draw has already been announced, so I'm checking it out.

The forecast is predicting rain non-stop from late Saturday afternoon throughout Sunday. Considering that six races will be run on the same outer course as Takaraduka Kinen, the inner part of the course could be damaged. Horses drawing inner posts would need a stamina boost.

The End

Caterpillar

8:27 p.m. Have spent all afternoon cleaning as Mr. N-jima is coming this weekend. All the time wondering how much it would rain in Kyoto tomorrow. After all, it rained quite hard in Tokyo. It won't come as a surprise if it rained more heavily in Kyoto than predicted, will it?

According to JRA, Kyoto turf was announced to be good to firm as of 9:30 this morning. It said they had 22 millimeter of rainfall until that time. If it really rains like the forecast has predicted, the percipitation could reach over 40 millimiters according to the forecast, which means the turf condition is likely to become soft. That sounds like bad news for Do Deuce, Heat on Beat, Yamanin Sympa or Rouge Eveil.

And the pace? There's a rumor that Bellagio Opera is going to take the lead. Well, it makes sense with Kazu Yokoyama riding. If so, the pace won't get that tight. It'll be either average or slow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. I've been a good Caterpillar, good enough to fill out the form and get it ready to submit to the ward office first thing next week right after work. Only then did I sit at the computer to narrow down my candidates for Takaraduka Kinen.

When I checked the weather at a little past six, it already seemed raining in Kyoto. Comments of pouring rain in Kyoto were also seen occasionally on X, around the same time. No matter how well the dainage has improved in Kyoto Racecourse, I assume the track will be soft tomorrow. And I also found a good reference race held 18 years ago, the 2006 Takaraduka Kinen that Deep Impact won, when it was held at Kyoto on a good to firm track condition.

So I crossed out the horses with lesser chance non-chalantly and I find myself with just four horses left. The names of these four are Justin Palace, Deep Bond, Sol Oriens, and Blow the Horn. Hoping I will be in good mood on Monday, with the race won and my form submitted.

The End

Caterpillar

7:08 p.m. Again, another blunder.

I predicted the pace would be either average or slow and in case it turned out to be at a slow pace, Sol Orience can sweep up the outside from behind. Yet I didn't win because I keyed Deep Bond and didn't buy Bellagio Opera.

So yet again, I lacked logical thinking and resorted to pedigree backgrounds, which is my bad behavior pattern I've learned the hard way around. The only two horses that would benefit from a slow pace were Blow the Horn and Sol Oriens. It was that simple a race. And then, the horses I chose were all good at average or tight-lapped races, Justin Palace, Deep Bond. Do Deuce bebefits from slow pace but performs better, much better on firm or good to firm track condition.

Any solution? Well, I guess I get confused and uncertain when I can't find a horse that catches my eye to key. One countermeasure I could think of is to sort out the information about what I know, don't know, and think of the outcome based on what I know.

The End

Caterpillar

7:53 p.m. The summer races are starting this week with Teioh-sho in between on Wednesday. Personally, I'd like to support Sayono Nature for Teioh-sho.

As for the JRA summer races, I'm thinking of doing Kitakyushu Kinen instead of Radio NIKKEI-sho since NIKKEI-sho is a race limited to 3-year-olds. Wait! Ah, there's the Tomoe-sho in Hakodate! Tomoe-sho is tempting, but I choose Kokura for now.

Kokura is assumed to have a lot of rain this week. Despite the weekly forecast predicting cloudy skies for Saturday and most of Sunday, the track is likely to get soft. Depending on how soft it gets, I reckon the race won't settle in a modest payout.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Let's start digging into Kitakyushu Kinen.

Because of the course layout having a long, downhill backstretch right after the start jumping into the spiral corner, the pace never seems to slacken in Kitakyushu Kinen. At least for the past ten ears, there wasn't a time when the pace dropped to average, even when it wasn't a full-field race.

Additionally, if the track becomes soft as I assume it would be, it's going to be a tough but monotonous race. Horses with power and speed would be the target in this case, especially runaways in the sense that the race could get monotonous. If there's a runaway without left-over damage that is fresh to this G3 category, the horse might become a good candidate depending on the level and performance of its previous race.

Not to mention, high aptitude for soft track is a must.

The End

Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. The Meteorological Agency has announced a heavy rain and flood warning for Northern Kyushu. If you are living in the area, please be careful! Take your emergency kit with you upstairs to the upper room in your house and stay away from windows. Sleep in the center of that upper-floor room just in case, with the emergency kit close by. Make sure your smartphone is charged!

The entry for the weekend races have been closed and the more I look at Kitakyushu Kinen, the more it makes me feel that whichever horse that took the lead would hit the wire first. It's going to be a murderous speed race, but it would be monotonous. The only question is how much rain would fall and how much it would dry before the race.

Perhaps everybody is thinking about the same thing, since Puro Magic has suddenly jumped up to the most favored in expected win odds, where I thought Thermal Wind would be.

We're expecting a full day of rain even here in Tokyo, so I'm thinking of spending the whole day cleaning and finishing up my pending tasks tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

9:06 p.m. I've spent the whole day cleaning. No, that's not true. I spent the whole afternoon cleaning well into evening, so my pending tasks are still pending. Well, at least my house is cleaned up, that's one good thing.

I'm not sure how much it rained today around Kokura Racecourse, but it looks like the rain will come back from Saturday afternoon if not heavy rain. Forecast says the rain will temporarily stop while the races are run on Sunday. Hmmm, think I've heard this somewhere before.

I'll make sure to check the updates on track condition at JRA tomorrow, along with the race results. There will be four sprint races run tomorrow at Kokura. Hopefully, they could give me some clues.

The End

Caterpillar

8:52 p.m. I was half hoping it would rain cats and dogs in Kokura however, today's turf races started on a firm track and finished on firm track. Forecast says they're expecting rain tomorrow. And who could believe that? Can I really count on it?

The finishing clock of all the turf sprint races run today weren't that fast, so I guess that means it wasn't a speed track. Taking that into account, I thought it was safer to stick to the idea of soft track condition and choose powerful horses.

I decided to key Thermal Wind for Kitakyushu Kinen. Given that there are more than two horses that want to take the lead, and that the track condition could be soft, the race might get too tough for a runaway. On the wheel would be Meisho Sorafune, Pair Pollux, Kanchenjunga, Nanao, and Birth Cry. I might give up Birth Cry and replace her with another horse in case the track was yielding.

The End

Caterpillar

7:04 p.m. I thought there were several other horses besides Puro Magic, such as T M Spada, Mozu Mei Mei, or Jasper Krone that might want to take the lead. That's why I changed my stance and gave up on Puro Magic.

It turns out that all the front runners held back (or perhaps simply didn't have enough speed to compete) and as a result, let Puro Magic easily runaway without any disturbance whatsoever. I would have keyed Puro Magic if I'd known all the other front runners would decline!

But then, I still wouldn't have bought Yoshino Easter or Mozu Mei Mei. Argh! And now I realize that Mozu Mei Mei's broodmare sire is Frankel! Why didn't you tell me when I was searcing for Frankel descendants last night? Why?

The End

Caterpillar