7:14 p.m. As it turns out, Niigata's turf today was dry and firm however, the earlier races were mostly for lower categories and I couldn't be sure if the clock would be fast as the usual Niigata Kinen. But then, I assumed that the inner part of the course would be digged up considering yesterday's condition, and decided it would be a power race.

I keyed King's Palace on a wheel of Gold Princess, June Aoniyoshi, Shinryokuka, Seleccion, Edel Blume, then added Red Radiance just in case. I went over my usual limit but it's better than regretting afterwards.

It came as a surprise when Light Back bolted off before the race and eventually got scratched off. I din't mind, though as I'd deleted her already.

The result was a good one. I would have been more happy if the payout had been bigger but well, that would be asking too much since it was a small-field race. I wish they sold a quintet, though.

The End

Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. The summer races will close with this week's Centaur Stakes and Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap.

Looking back, though I think I did better than the usual summer since I didn't win any races last year. I've only won one or two races at best recalling the past ten years, while I won three this year Hakodate Sprint, Tanabata-sho, and Niigata Kinen. You might call it a tiny step but it is a progress compared to the past.

After all these years, I'm finally beginning to understand this game of calling horse races. I wish I will have the time and chance to organise my thoughts and integrate them so as to make use of it as something I could refer to when I lose my way. If I can do that, surely it would help me more when I'm calling races.

The End

Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. So the last of the summer grade races also serves as step races for the autumn G1 races.

One is a sprint G2 aimed for Sprinter Stakes, Centaur Stakes. Last year's Sprinters' Stakes champion Mama Cocha, 3-year-old Puro Magic winning one of the summer sprint seiries Kita Kyushu Kinen are entered, as well as Mozu Mei Mei who won the Ibis Summer Dash and finally seems to be getting back on track.

The other is Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap, a mile G3 known as a step for Mile Championship. The center of attracton is of course, Ascoli Piceno, the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies champion, Ouka-sho and NHK Mile Cup runner-up.

I'm having a hard time choosing from the two because Ascoli Piceno looks risky, while Centaur Stakes has been run at Chukyo or Hanshin for the past ten years, which makes it harder for me to grasp the trend or features of the race when run at Chukyo. I need some time to decide.

Just to let you know, I'm skipping tomorrow as Mr. N-jima has invited us to an unagi dinner. Yay!

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. The unagi was great. The sauce was different from any other place that I'd eaten, not too sweet and light-tasted while the ungi was rich in taste. The hire-kushi (grilled unagi fin sate) was delicious especially when it was accompanied by sake.

Although I fully enjoyed a luxurious dinner in a while, I still haven't decided which race to call this week not even at this point. Not to mention I'd eventually have to make up my mind.

I'm thinking of calling either Centaur Stakes and keisei-hai Autumn Handicap whichever I can be confident about the pace and track condition. Thus it's likely for me to choose Centaur Stakes.

The End

Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. The result of the barrier draw has long been announced, so let's take a look to decide which race to bet on.

Hmm, Centaur Stakes is likely to run at a tight lap. That would surely benefit horses staying behind especially when the inner part of the course is quite damaged. I've just checked the photos at JRA, but the inner course around the third to last corner is miserable with the grass torn out and the ground showing. However, the finishing time is annually fast meaning, the race tends to run at a tight pace.

Nakayama course on the other hand, is covered in beautiful, green, fluffy, Noshiba, which also suggests a record-breaking winning time. However, the weather seems to be unstable and there's a threat of rain while the pace is hard to predict. It could get tight, though if the front runners are wary of each other, it could drop to average.

Aw, it's hard to choose between the two! Rationally thinking, I should pick Centaur Stakes since the information I have now are more trustable than that of Keisei-hai.

The End

Caterpillar

9:20 p.m. Oh, no. I tried hard but I couldn't make it in time again. My troubling client has also been eating up my time, pestering me with unnecessary messages.

So far I've narrowed down my candidates of Centaur Stakes to... how many? Eight. I still have eight? Oh god! I have a feeling that horses with higher achievements might perform better in the end, even though Centaur Stakes is just a prep race to them.

Currently surviving on my list are Stone Ridge, Thousand Sunny, Yoshino Easter, Ten Happy Rose, Puro Magic, Asakara King, Toshin Macau and Mama Cocha. I'm thinking of deleting the first two. Then, I still need to delete at least one more.

The End

Caterpillar

7:47 p.m. Mozu Mei Mei was a blind spot.

To be honest, I did consider including her for a few seconds because she was a 4-year-old female horse, which have been performing well in the last three years, but then dismissed the idea as I thought she won't have much energy left to fight back after performing well in two consecutive grade races, winning the closest Ibis Summer Dash.

My feeling that horses with higher achievements might perform better in the end, though turned out to be right. I would have keyed Toshin Macau if I had more confidence, but I gambled with Puro Magic who was pretty risky to end up with another loss.

Nevertheless, I rewarded myself with a juicy Japanese pear, the first to eat this season, since I was calm enough to spend only half the money I usually bet.

The End

Caterpillar

6:47 p.m. This weekend we're having races three days in a row as next Monday is a holiday. The step race for Shuka-sho, Rose stakes will be held on Sunday while the step race for Kikkasho, Centlight Kinen runs on Monday. I'm going to be very busy.

Despite my relief that Rose Stakes has finally come back to Hanshin last year, it is going to be held at Chukyo again this year due to the Hanshin renewal. I hate to be swung around by these renewals since the course is one of the most crucail factors when calling a race. But well, I've seen what the current Chukyo course is like last week with Centaur Stakes, so it should be better than calling blindly.

As for Centlight Kinen, it will be run on Nakayama turf as usual, which is a bit of a relief. Unless it rains cats and dogs during the week, the turf is unlikely to be harshly damaged. Who knows, we might have another new race record depending on the pace.

The End

Caterpillar

8:23 p.m. Have done some research in my little spare time about how the most favored horses performed in Rose Stakes in the past 10 years. There were a couple of things common in all the odds-on favorite horses finishing above third place, but one thing particularly stood out.

Horses that performed well while being the most favored all had a career of winning at least one race with the fastest clock for the last three furlongs. On the other hand, horses that were the most favored in Rose Stakes but sunk in low positions had slower records for the last three furlongs throughout their career.

It shows how the last boost is necessary to perform highly in Rose Stakes. Especially, if the horse has also performed well in Oaks, the credibility will shoot up. I'm afraid Sunset View, The Bride, and Lavanda are knocked out at this point.

The End

Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. Now let's turn our eyes to Centlight Kinen.

As you might already know, horses that could go up front have performed well in the past 10 years, since the race is run on the outside course of Nakayama turf. Additionally, the inner post drawers tend to perform better overall than horses drawing outer posts.

Running in D'erby previuosly could be an advantage in a sense that it boosts up the performance in the next race. I'm thinking that expereincing a high level race contributes to the horses' motivation in the next race.

So to wrap it up, horses running in D'erby previously that can potentially go up front from an inner post would be a good candidate for Centlight Kinen. Among the D'erby group, monotonous types that have finished either first or second in a 1800m race can also be a good candidate as well as horses that have performed highly on good to firm or soft tracks, since these two factors back up the aptitude they need to do well in Centlight Kinen.

There is however, an exception to this; Titleholder. The reason, I'm guessing, is that Titleholder was quite tired after finishing above fifth place four grade races in a row including two G1s, Hopeful Stakes and Satsuki-sho. So you might as well avoid such a type.

The End

Caterpillar

7:34 p.m. The entry for Rose Stakes has been closed while Centlight Kinen is still open as it's run on Monday.

Considering the importance of the speed in the last three furlongs, whether keeping Regaleira or not would be the key to winning Rose Stakes. Surely, Regaleira will be the center of attraction however, she has been taking her position in the back since she succeeded in winning Hopeful Stakes.

If she stays too far behind in Rose Stakes, she could vanish from the top three especially if the pace is slow. And indeed, the pace tends to lag in this particular race.

Christophe would probably try to put her in a good position, at least better than her last race but still, it's just a step race for a horse that has already won a G1. I even heard rumors that she's aimed for Queen Elizabeth Cup, not Shuhkasho. Summing it up, the risk may be too high to key Regaleira.

The End

Caterpillar

8:31 p.m. The barriers for Rose Stakes have been drawn and announced and Regaleira has drawn the outmost post number 15. This generally is considered to be a disadvantage regarding the Chukyo course.

Judging from the barrier draw, Lady Value is likely to take the lead. If so, there's a high possibility that the race would run at average pace, since Lady Value has won her previous race in the same way, on the same course, in the same distance.

And if the pace turns out to be average, it would surely benefit Regaleira as she would have to bear more risks in a slow pace. Come to think of it, she won Hopeful Stakes in a similar siituation starting from an outer post, sweeping up the outside at average pace, with Christophe on her back.

That doesn't necessarily boost up my evaluation for Regaleira, though. The risks she bears hasn't gone anywhere. She rather fits the requirements for Centlight Kinen, in my opinion.

The End

Caterpillar

8:41 p.m. Yet again, I have seven horses remaining on my list of candidates for Rose Stakes. One of the reasons beside my being irresistably sleepy is because I heard they might be having rain in Chukyo.

Today's Chukyo turf races all finished with pretty fast records thanks to the temporary fence that covered the damaged inner parts of te course. But if it rains during the night and possibly into the day tomorrow, the track condition which I assumed to be firm and fast can change drastically.

Therefore, I thought it would be better to make my final decision tomorrow after I've cchecked the turf condition. And these are the names of the horses currently surviving on my list; Canicule, Queen's Walk, Aurora X, Celesta, Tagano Elpida, Sekitoba East, and Regaleira. I'd probably key Queen's Walk FYI.

Meanwhile, Centlight Kinen's entry has been closed with 14 horses, with the barriers drawn and announced. Will have to work on it tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:51 p.m. Darn, I've done another blunder! I keyed Queen's Walk but because there were six horses left on my wheel, I made the critical mistake of deleting Sekitoba East. I should have deleted Regaleira, knowing she would lose if the pace dropped! And my biggest payout just walked out the door.

While I was determined to win Centlight Kinen, I got distracted both by Cow and Mr. N-jima. These people never learn to keep to their hands to themselves. As I couldn't fully focus, again I'm left with seven horses at the moment. Will have to carve them down by tomorrow.

The seven horses remaining on my list are Urban Chic, Ecoro Raise, Lucullan Feast, Ecoro Walz, Yamanin Ad Hoc, Stinger Glass, and Ask Happy More. Will key Urban Chic. Regaleira has taught me a lesson today, that sometimes you just have to go for broke so I left out Cosmo Kuranda.

The End

Caterpillar

8:12 p.m. I went for broke and now I lost my money.

As I checked the turf condition this morning, it was very different from what I expected it to be. Although it was announced to be firm, the stats showed at JRA suggested it was actually good to firm with a dried surface. I did think of the possibility when it rained last night, but I didn't expect the track to be so power-consuming.

The track condition has surely advantaged Cosmo Kuranda as well as the pace Yamanin Ad Hoc has set. Ad Hoc should have pushed harder in order to remain in the top three and the same goes for Ecoro Walz.

Thanks to the track condition and the slow pace, I blew all my money. Never mind that as the payout was a sleepy amount consisting of the first, second, and third favored. It's more concerning that my one short of syndrome seems to be back again.

The End

Caterpillar

7:49 p.m. Another holiday on next Monday but we're back into the normal racing schedule of Saturday and Sunday.The two main grade races are both held on Sunday, Kobe Shinbun-hai and All Comer.

Kobe shinbun-hai, the trial race for Kikka-sho will be held at Chukyo this year, just like Rose Stakes. And another thing that coincides with Rose Stakes is that there are only three times in the past 10 years when Kobe Shinbun-hai was held at Chukyo, which were from 2020 to 2022.

As Kobe Shinbun-hai is similar to Rose Stakes, it also seems to require similar aptitude. Horses having the fastest clock for the last three furlongs have performed well generally. Sharpness is the key to the podium, though not the light instantaneous speed but rather the long-lasting speed you see in horses with European background.

Horses taking their positions behind to take over the others would be better to draw inner posts, since swinging around the outside brings too much distance loss. The finishing record is overall pretty fast, so it won't be a good idea to stay too far behind unless the horse is the next Deep Impact, Contrail or Equinox.

If the track stays dry, the forementioned long-lasting speed will be a must however, power would also be necessary in case the track softens with rain.

The End

Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. Now let's look at the stats of All Comer. I'm rather more interested in All Comer than Kobe Shinbun-hai, as it's a race for older horses. Also, Centlight Kinen has just finished on the same course and same distance, which could be a good reference when calling All Comer.

Okay, let's get started! First of all, the top three finishers in the past 10 years are all concentrated on the first to seventh favored in win odds on the day of the race, except for year 2014. I think we could exclude this year as an exception, because the race has ben run at Niigata in 2014.

Next, about female horses. Out of thirty horses that finished above third place in te past 10 years, ten of them were female horses, seven of them being 4 years old. That's one third. You can't just ignore it. On the other hand, horses older than 7 years aren't doing well with only Mitra (7 years old) barely making the third place in 2015.

Finally, inner post drawers are performing well in this race. The performance of horses starting from barriers outer than five drops their performance as the barrier numbers grow.

The End

Caterpillar

9:02 p.m. Am working my ass off. Have worked hard while the entry for the weekend's races were being closed. Both Kobe Shinbun-hai and All Comer have closed the entry with fifteen horses, respectively.

Also, both races might be hit with rain. I just checked the forecast and there were umbrella marks on Sunday. Chukyo especially, seems to rain all day. So the requirements for high performers might shift to power, long-lasting speed and good position.

Not to mention, the inner post starters are basically benefitted in case it rains fullfledgedly.

There's a lot of work to do concerning the track condition and that I'm betting on two races again. Plus, friends are coming over for the weekend to stay, which means I have to clean up the house, get the bedding, foods and drinks ready. How much do I have to work?

The End

Caterpillar

9:16 p.m. The forecast has changed again possibly, because of typhoon Pulasan thought to be heading back to northern Japan this weekend like a boomerang.

I'm not sure what it is that the typhoon has done or is going to do, but the rain which was expected to fall all day in Chukyo is now looking like it's going to stop early in the afternoon. Umbrella marks have even vanished from the Nakayama forecast, saying that the sky will hold. Oh, god. This is so confusing.

I've been driven with things to do, cleaning, shopping, checking and sending documents to clients, and the results of the barrier have been announced already. In Kobe Shinbun-hai, Meisho Tabaru would probably take the lead easily since he's drawn the outmost post. And because he could probaly runaway witout being disturbed,it would be better to keep him.

As for All Comer, tsk, Lebensstil and Stell Veloce have both drawn inner posts.

The End

Caterpillar

9:37 p.m. Very tired as usual. Also, have been annoyed by a tiny bug that has been circling around me for a couple of hours now. It's been distracting me the whole time and I'm very much stressed.

When I have my concentration at its maximum power but my mind relaxed at the same time, it's not so difficult for me to either wack these tiny bugs or catch them in my hand. But I haven't been able to perform my skill in a weary state as I am now, so I've been letting the bug go resulting in a bad circuit of buzzing around my head.

So as you can easily imagine, my tasks haven't made much progress. There are still ten horses left on my list for Kobe Shinbun-hai and I'm at a loss at the moment. The uncertainty of the track condition is adding more difficulty to my task. Think I'll wait till tomorrow to check on it.

On the other hand, All comer was decided pretty smoothly. Am keying Lebensstil (that can't be helped) on a wheel of Saliera, Stella Veloce, Killer Ability, Savona, and Licancabur.

The End

Caterpillar

7:02 p.m. As mentioned earlier, Mr. N-jima and our mutual friend Chief O came to stay late yesterday afternoon. I had to sleep on the couch in order to make room for two men to sleep, and as a result I couldn't sleep. Most of today has passed already without me in my disfunctional state.

The results of the races were also terrible. I was cheering Shonan la Punta heatedly since I believed all along that it was Mr G T, the horse I keyed on my Kobe Shinbun-hai wheel. I thought I won when Meisho Tabaru hit the wire without being taken over, and June Take followed right behind. It ended up as wishful thinking.

All Comer wasn't all that better. I didn't buy Auswahl because I'd thought Feengrotten would go to catch him and then the horse (and rider) doesn't even go up front, on the current Nalayama turf where taking one's position in the back means hopeless.

Although my twelfth-favored Licancabur hung on to third place, I din't have Auswahl to let a good payuout slip through my fingers yet again. It's been a terrible weekend, except for the fact that now my fridge is occupied by Bunmeido creme caramel and castella sponge cake, brought by Chief O as a gift.

The End

Caterpillar

8:02 p.m. I wonder why everything happens all at once especially when I'm busy?

We're having the first G1 race of this season, Sprinters' Stakes this weekend so I wanted to be fully prepared by weekend. But then, I have meetings with clients along with preparations for those meetings, while a friend from overseas is visiting Japan and we're meeting on Friday, when the business is growing towards Sunday, the race day.

I couldn't help it, though since that was the only time I could spare a few hours. So I'm trying to start early this week, but then I have to reply to incoming messages and cook dinner, grrr.

Well, will just do my best to get to sleep earlier tonight so I could get up early tomorrow and make some time for myself. I could do the stats research on my smartphone if need be, in the most extreme case if I only have some time.

The End

Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Barely starting to prepare for Sprinters' Stakes.

The forecast is predicting rain for Friday and Saturday, so the track condition might change depending on the amount of precipitation. Since the opening of Nakayama, the firm and fast Noshiba turf has given benefit to front runners for the past three weeks. Unless the inner part of the course is harshly damaged under weather and hooves, the trend I think, is unlikely to change.

So the important thing is to keep in mind that the inner post starters will be advantaged in this year's Sprinters' Stakes. Additionally, front runners will also be advantaged, judging from the results of the past weeks. If the pace becomes a tight lap, maybe there will be chances for horses staying behind, but otherwise it's going to be the front runners that perform well.

My personal interest is on Mama Cocha so far. I'd probably key her, if and when she draws an inner post.

The End

Caterpillar

7:22 p.m. Yeah, it was Thursday. The entry for Sprinters' Stakes has been closed before I knew it, and 16 horses including two horses from Hong Kong are running this year.

As I feared, full-fledged rain is expected for the next two days, which is likely to affect the track condition. If the track becomes soft, the front runners and inner post drawers will have the advantage as mentioned earlier. I assume it would be hard to take over from behind especially, from the outside.

I've checked the past results when the race was run in good to firm or softer track condition, going back as far as twenty years to find only three. Unlike Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen held in early spring, it shows how Sprinrters' Stakes run at this time of year has been unlikely to be hit by rain, at least before the climate change.

All three races seem to back up that the front runners are advantaged as well as inner post starters. Lookers shouldn't be overestimated unless they draw inner posts. The only horse that performed well from behind starting from an outer post was Cape of Good Hope from Hong Kong, who had performed well in overseas G1 but hadn't actually won one yet.

That brings us to pondering the possibilities of the two Hong Kong horses entering this year. Well, my personal opinion is that Mugen require caution only when it draws an inner post while Victor The Winner should be kept in mind as it could take the lead.

The End

Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. Sorry for skipping yesterday despite the first G1 of this season. I had to entertain a guest to a snake cafe. It was my first time touching snakes as I am not a slitherine, but it was actually a pretty interesting and relaxing experience.

However, since I spent all afternoon on the snake cafe and came home in the evening drenched with rain, I was too tired to do anything, not even the preparations for Sprinters' Stakes. So I've just taken a quick look at the stats and came down to 7 horses, which I need to ponder until tomorrow.

As I mentioned beforehand, I'm going to key Mama Cocha on a wheel of Toshin Macau, Namura Clair, Mad Cool, Mozu Mei Mei, Satono Reve, and Victor the Winner. I might cross out Toshin Macau, though. I kept Namura and Satono Reve on the wheel for now, but I'm not sure.

On a second thought, I perhaps could buy a wheel keying Mama Cocha and Victor the Winner?

The End

Caterpillar

6:34 p.m. Arrrgh!! Namura Clair!! What do you think you've done!?

Late last night, or rather early this morning, since it was already four, I crossed out Mozu Mei Mei as I thought her performance wouldn't improve from her last race Centaur Stakes, and added Lugal onto my wheel, considering the pace is likely to get tight and that Lugal could go up front and look what Namura has done!

If only Mama Cocha hung on by a neck, I would have won Sprinters' Stakes! Why couldn't Namura Clair politely decline the third place since she couldn't win anyway? Manager O and I would have been very much pleased if she did.

Aw, that hurt! It hurt really bad!

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Manager O seens to have switched his mind already, so let me follow in his steps and move on to Mainichi Ohkan, though I admit it lacks appeal since the payout is usually not that big.

Mainichi Ohkan will be run on the opening week of Tokyo, so it's easy to guess the track is in good condition resulting in record-breaking finishing time every year. This means that front runners and inner post starters have the advantage, just like they did on the earlier races run on this season's Nakayama.

Unlike Nakayama, however, power is not an important factor concerning this race. Instead, speed in this case, instantaneous speed is necessary to perform well in Mainichi Ohkan. As mentioned previously, it would be better for even lookers to draw inner posts as they wouldn't have to bear the course loss, but if they can use a rocket blast at 32 seconds range for the last three furlongs, they might be able to do make it to the top three from outer posts like Songline, Satono Aladdin, Rouge Buck or A Shin Hikari.

Overall, it's a must for high-performers to have a winning career on fast track. 1 minute 45 seconds range for 1800 meters will be the borderline.

The End

Caterpillar