8:02 p.m. And before I knew it, it's time for Tanabata-sho, the summer race that's notorious for going wild. The payout tends to be in big amount almost every year so I've been trying to win it as long as I could remember, but running into brick walls every time.

This year however, I've got a little clue. My notes from last year that says I could use the "sticking to the inner fence" method. The method itself is just a tiny clue, but together with a year worth of my experience it might help me geak that brick wall.

Let's just cross my fingers for THE breakthrough for the first time in decades.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Trying to analyze Tanabata-sho from the past 10 years' results, though it might end in vain. But then, nothing can be accomplished if you don't give it a try.

Fukushima turf 2000m course has a long straight right after the start. It's nearly 500 meters long and thre's a downhill at the beginning, so it's not hard to imagine that Tanabata-sho rarely runs at a slow pace.

In fact, there wasn't a time in the past ten years when the race was run at a sluggish pace, although there was a year or two when the furlong records were overall mundane, which I assume was caused by the competitors' low aptitude.

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. As a grade race that almost usually goes wild, many horses performing well in the past 10 years have done well in either of their previous two races, not both. In order to perform highly in Tanabata-sho, it's necessary not to work themselves too hard in their previous races.

Some horses haven't finished above third place for more than three races before Tanabata-sho, but suddenly raised their performances. It seems weird but that's why the race doesn't end quietly in a modest payout.

If there are any trends these horses that have suddenly raised their performances, I'd say it's stimulation, such as drastical changes in distance or course. Apart from that, perhaps a longer break from races might help refresh the horses' minds, just like it does for us humans, too.

The End

Caterpillar

7:05 p.m. And the entry for Tanabata-sho has been closed today. Huh? There's one horse missing. I thought there were six-teen horses entered for this race, but there are only fif-teen. Wonder which horse scratched off? Never mind, though since the horse I'm thinking of keying seems to be running.

There's another thing I've realized while analyzing the results of the past ten years. It seems that there's at least one horse finishing in the top three almost every year, which turned the last corner in its previous race within fourth posotion from the leading horse. Sometimes these front-runners have dominated the top three in Tanabata-sho.

The only time in ten years when horses that went up front in its most recent race didn't perform well was year 2016. Tanabata-sho 2016 was run at a tight lap, but there were years when the lap was more tight and the race more tough. Well, perhaps I could refer to these horses that went up front in their previous races in 2016 as untrustworthy front-runners, which could be deleted from my list of candidates.

The End

Caterpillar

8:24 p.m. It has been a sweltering day, I hope everyone's doing okay. I couldn't sleep well last night because of the heat, ad even though I got up earlier than usual again, because of the heat, I couldn't do much while the sun was still out not to mention, because of the heat.

It was late in the afternoon when I finally started moving and then, everything was in a mad rush as you can easily imagine. The cleanig, going out to pick up the book I've ordered earlier, shopping, and a little bit of work. They all had to be done in a couple of hours to make ends meet and the barrier draw had already been announced without my knowing.

I wonder if Seiun Platina would push to take the lead? If so, the pace could get tight. I don't have much time left now, so I guess I'll think more about it tomorrow. My horse of interest has drawn a good post and that's all that matters to me now.

The End

Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. I thought the horse of my interest was all set to go drawing an ideal post, but as I looked deeper into the horse, I came to have some doubts on its condition. The horse should be performing better if there was nothing wrong.

So I tried picking a different horse to key in a hurry and ended up with two, Red Radiance and King's Palace. I've been torn between the two I mean, it's Tanabata-sho and I want to win it. I'm tilting toward King's Palace now, but Red Radiance is also tempting.

On the wheel would be, Red Lammert, Curren Leciel Bleu, Arata, and Nocking Point. Maybe I could buy two types of wheels from both horses after all. I'll sleep on it for a night and decide tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Yesss! It's my first Tanabata-sho win in my life! I only bought trios, though.

Babbitt has taken the lead as I expected, but then the pace he set turned out to be tight, which was something I didn't expect. And the tight lap resulted in the gap of two lengths between Red Radiance and King's Palace.

Eventually, it didn't matter which horse I keyed, Red Radiance or King's Palace, as they both finished above third place. Also, the horse of my interest was Nocking Point, so it didn't matter if I'd keyed Nocking Point either. And why am I buying trios, not trifectas?

The End

Caterpillar

8:33 p.m. In good mood, let me move on to the next race Hakodate Kinen, another race I haven't won in my life. Currently, a huge group of twenty horses are entered in this famous summer race. Wow, since when did Hakodate Kinen become so popular?

Before anything, I'd like to review the features of Hakodate turf course, since I've thought that it's not so different from Sapporo turf, sometimes even mixing them up. The two race courses are basically similar in the sense that they are both clockwise, covered with equine turf and Italian ryegrass, and have shorter stretches compared to the major JRA courses like Tokyo or Kyoto.

The biggest difference, though is that Hakodate has ups and downs with tight corners, whereas Sapporo is almost flat and the corners are gentle. Resultingly, Hakodate requires horses of more power, speed, and high skill in cornering while keeping the speed in order to perform well.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. I've learned assessment is important last week, so let's get the ball rolling. The course layout of Hakodate turf 2000 meters basically, doesn't change much from Fukushima turf 2000 meters, where Tanabata-sho was run. The two big difference is that one, there are ups and downs in Hakodate and two, that the turf of Hakodate is power-consuming.

Since the course layout is similar, the race features also seem to sync a bit. The result of the past 10 years show that there's been only one year when Hakodate Kinen has been run at a slow lap. Additionally, I think the "sticking to the inner fence method" could be used here again. I'll check out my notes later.

But the weekly forecast is announcing another unreliable forecast for Hakodate Racecourse on Sunday, cloudy with a possibility of raisnshowers later in the day. Not sure what to make of that. I guess it would advantage horses with European backgrounds like Saddler's Wells, Mr. Prospector, or Roberto depending on how soft the turf condition turns out to be.

The End

Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. I've checked my notes of Hakodata Kinen from last year and yes, it said I could use "sticking to the inner fence method". There were also a couple more notes I made that might help.

Horses running in a leisurely schedule having more than a 5-week interval before running Hakodate Kinen performs better. If the interval is shorter than two weeks, the horse would need a longer break before its previous race, in order to perform well in Hakodate Kinen.

Another thing I wrote was to choose a looker with instantaneous speed if choosing any. Because the corners are tight and it slopes down from the last corner to the homestretch, instantaneous speed will be necessary to take over the front runners. Why, good job, me!

The End

Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. Okay, so the entry has been closed for the weekend and Hakodate Kinen will be run with 16 horses this year. Hmm, a big-field race as usual. That's good, considering the possibility of a big payout.

According to the forecast, Hakodate seems to be blessed with fine weather throughout the weekend. However, Hakodate races are coming closer to the end with the track damage showing on the inner side of the turf course, although a temporary fence has been put up to cover the ruined parts and the course has changed from curse A to B.

I've compared the finishing records of Hakodate turf to believe that surely, the turf condition is changing to a more power-consuming state. The situation seems to be luring me into buying horses that could sweep up the outside. I won't be be tricked, not this time. Horses running the outside have to bear the distance loss, and it would be quite difficult to take over all the other horses, even if the race was run at a tight lap.

The End

Caterpillar

8:36 p.m. Doing my best to finish all the tasks for today. I'm way behind schedule as usual and I'm desperately trying to catch up. I already had a horse of interest in mind by this time last week, but this week I haven't been able to look into Hakodate Kinen in detail.

While I haven't done much assessment, the barriers have already been drawn and announced, though I don't know what to make of it since I haven't fnished my homework yet.

One thing I reallized, though is that yet again, horses that turned the last corner within fourth from the leading horse in their previous races do well, just like they did in Tanabata-sho. It doesn't surprise me since the course features are similar to Fukushima 2000 meters. Well, checking out the positions of previous races might make a good start for me, I reckon.

The End

Caterpillar

9:10 p.m. I did my best to catch up and I was ready to start crossing out the horses, when I suddenly realized it was difficult. I discovered something about the competitors was totally different from Tanabata-sho which was making it extremely hard to imagine the outcome of Hakodate Kinen.

Nevertheless, I struggled to grasp the big picture by checking out the Hakodate turf race results of today. It came as a surprise to me that runaways were performing well today, regardless of the distance or pace. Horses from behind mostly didn't reach to the top. I went to check the turf condition of Hakodate officially announced on the JRA website, and it looked like the turf was a bit soft, almost good to firm, though it was announced to be firm today.

I was losing sight of my goal and now pretty uncertain, but freaking out won't help. In my desperate attempt, I finally made up my mind to key Top Knife. Yes, I know he's 4 years old, but I think he could make the top 3. Sadly, I haven't reached conclusion for the horses to put on my wheel yet. It's going to be, it has to be front-runners, as lookers can't make it. The problem is, I'm not sure which horse could go up front except for Auswahl.

The End

Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. Just like the Summer Sprint Series, I failed to win the Summer 2000 Sries two in a row. Mission unaccomplished. It's a pity since I had Auswahl and Savona on my wheel. The cause for my loss was Top Knife, my key horse, though.

I thought Top Knife had the aptitude to perform well and I also thought he could go up front. The horse took a good position actually, but couldn't keep up when the race started to move around the third corner. Regarding te results that Ho O Biscuits won from the second position and Auswahl who took the lead hung on at third place, Top Knife must have had a conditional problem.

Now that I think about it, could it be that Hakodate Kinen was just a step race for Top Knife? Oh man, why didn't I recognize that!

The End

Caterpillar

7:55 p.m. Don't know why time flies so fast!? I got up earlier than usual and worked hard to squeeze out time and I still haven't been able to review Hakodate Kinen. But the clock never stops ticking and again, the time comes for Chukyo Kinen held at Kokura.

Hey! Didn't Chukyo Kinen return to Chukyo since last year? Why is it held in Kokura again, then? Would someone please give me a plausible explanation?

Although the original Chukyo Kinen is a mile race, the distance has been extended to 1800m due to the location change. I thought this, too, has ended with the return of the race to Chukyo last year. Well, now it' back so I'll just have to face it and make the best out of what I got, just two years' worth of data years 2021 and 2022, which might not be of much help.

The End

Caterpillar

8:11 p.m. Have been met with several unexpected troubles recently.

I had an online meeting with a friend today, where I tried to use a webmeeting service on my desktop instead of lauching zoom with my tablet, because I thought the connection will be more stable if I used my desktop, but I didn't have zoom on it.

The camera worked well and the connection was fine however, the microphone didn't work and it ended up in my having to use zoom on my iPad as usual. The service was able to use perfectly comfortably when I used it last Thursday, and suddenly, a thing like this happens.

Now my workload has been increased. I'll have to go serach and solve this problem since I have another online meeting held again on Thursday, while I'm struggling with picking up any trends (if any) for Chukyo Kinen.

The End

Caterpillar

8:03 p.m. Putting the micrphone problem aside, I'm looking at the past results of Chukyo Kinen. I don't even know where to start, though since the condition of this race has been changed quite often. The difference in the date suggests that the damage of the turf condition must also have been different, let alone the difference in course. It will become a whole different race when the distance is extended from a mile to 1800m.

That's why I'm at a loss and there are only two years of results I could use to assess the situation. Well, I'll have to do with what I've got. Perhaps Catedral could give me a few clues. After all, he is the only repeater finishing second in Chukyo Kinen held on Kokura 1800m, two years in a row while repeaters seem very rare in this particular race.

In the two times Catedral has performed well, the horse has run Yasuda Kinen in his previous race losing big in both and yet made a stunning come back in Chukyo Kinen. However, Catedral ie already 8 years old and is going to carry 58kg weight unlike the past two years when he was blessed with 56kg and 57kg, respectively.

No matter how good Catedral is with Kokura 1800m, I don't feel like keying this horse.

The End

Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Personally, I'm always hoping for a full-field race in the sense that the payout could become a big amount. That goes especially for handicapped races, since the possibility of a huge pay-out grows higher while winning it is more over-complicated.

So I was hoping Chukyo Kinen to be a full-field race as usual, but there seems to be only 14 horses running this year, which is actually a disappointment. Besides 14 horses makes things even harder in my view, since the horse starting from the outmost post might not be so diadvantaged compared to that of a full-field race.

If it's a small-field race with only 10 or 11 horses running, then the inner post drawers will be advantaged in most cases. If it's a full-field race, I can judge the advantages and disadvantages according to the pace and the positions the horses might take. But 14? I don't know what to do.

The End

Caterpillar

7:56 p.m. The barriers have been drawn for Chukyo Kinen and announced. There are several front runners, so it's not easy to guess the pace.

It depends on T O Sirius's condition, but if Anagosan insists, it's likely for Anagosan to take the lead since he seems faster than Serberg. However, the homestretch that comes after the start is less than 300 meters long and, there's an uphill starting from the first corner reaching the peak halfway round the first to second corner. Therefore, I assume the pace won't be so tight, even if it became a batlle between T O Sirius and Anagosan. Whichever takes the lead, the battle will see its end soon anyway, since there's only 272 meters before they head into the first corner.

Suudenly, Anagosan starts to look attractive. The horse could go up front, has won a Kokura turf 1800 meters before although the track was soft at the time, he's carrying lighter weight than in his previous race, Yonago Stakes. The only down side Anagosan has is that he might have strained too much to finish third in his previous race to have some damage.

The End

Caterpillar

9:12 p.m. Err.. It's hard, extremely hard to call Chukyo Kinen.

I forgot there was Theo outside Anagosan. Theo is also a front runner so if Theo joins the runaway battle, there's a chance the pace could become tight. However, in case Theo didn't insist to take the lead, he might get the best position behind the runaway just like the rider did so in last week's Hakodate Kinen with Ho O Biscuits. Then, the pace wll not be so tight.

If the race runs at an average pace, it's likely for the front runners to perform better than horses sweeping up the outside. But then, it's only an assumption based on another assumption that the course layout doesn't let the pace get tight so often. So I'm swinging between the possibilities of a tight lap and an average lap.

Have forced myself and narrowed down my candidates to six horses now, but haven't decided which horse to key yet. The names of horses surviving on the list are, Al Naseem, Epiphany, Elton Barows, Anagosan, Theo, and Long Run. Sorry, but just couldn't make enough room for Catedral.

The End

Caterpillar

8:27 p.m. After all, I couldn't resist the attraction of Anagosan and keyed him on my wheel, which, as you know, was te biggest mistake.

I was actually torn between keying Anagosan and Elton Barows, but the 59kg, the heaviest weight Elton Barows had to carry made me flinch and my finger was tapping post number 11 instead of 7 before I knew it. If I had chosen Elton Barows to key on my wheel, then I would have won with the top four horses all on my wheel. My call wasn't all that bad.

What surprised me was the payout. I mean, it's not surprising as the top three finishers were fifth, first and second favored respectively, though I didn't expect a summer handicapped race like Chukyo Kinen to end in such a lukewarm payout. Things might have been different if there were two more horses entered.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. There will be two grade races held this weekend, Ibis Summer Dash at Niigata and Queen Stakes at Sapporo. Not to mention, I'm choosing Queen Stakes.

The reason is clear. Because I have enough information on the course which I believe, must help me a lot to narrow down the candidates of Queen Stakes.

Races at Sapporo Race Course have just started last Saturday. This means that the track condition is good. And because Sapporo is another local course similar to Hakodate, the possibility is high that I could use the "stick to the rail method" again.

It looks like the turf condition is good as I expected it to be, judging from last weekend's race results. And a quick peek at the past results of Queen Stakes tells me I could use the method. Okay, so Queen Stakes, it is.

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. Just checked the weekly forecast which said that although Sapporo is expecting some rain during the week, the weekend seems to go without it. Looks like the good turf will be kept in good condition if the forecast becomes true.

Getting back to the past results of Queen Stakes. Recalling last year, I think I keyed Dura because she was a 3-year-old. 3-year-olds will have the advantage of carrying lighter weight than their seniors, though I believe there's a strict line between horses that perform well and horses that don't.

Leaving out year 2021 since the race was held at Hakodate, there were two 3-year-olds that performed fairly well in nine years. Both of them actually won Queen Stakes, making the best out of their advantages and they both met either of the following requirements; have won a mixed grade race over 1800m, or have won a mixed G1.

There were other 3-year-olds that have challenged this race, which I haven't counted yet as I only took a quick look, though they didn't meet either of the formerly mentioned requirements, and they've all sunk below 4th place.

The End

Caterpillar

8:27 p.m. Checking to see if there are any 3-year-olds entered in Queen Stakes this year, that meets the requirements I mentioned yesterday, just like last year's Dura.

Currently, three 3-year-olds Ipheion, Koganeno Sora, and Bond Girl are entered. It turns out, though that none of them meets the requirements. Darn! So there's no Dura this year!

My next move would be to analyze the horses that performed well when the 3-year-olds didn't. That should take some time. In the meantime, I'll also check out my notes from last year but I don't think I've left much notes. Let's not expect much from it.

The End

Caterpillar

9:13 p.m. Had some work to do besides the usual cleaning and it got late, too late to do much analysis for Queen Stakes. So just a quick peek at my notes from last year.

It says, "barriers 1 and 2 are must-buys!" Really? Checking... Wow! It's true. They're performing well at a high ratio. What else does it say?

"Freshness is important!" Yes, I know that.

"Horses that perform well when the last three furlongs takes more than 35 seconds should be prioritized!" Hmm, so I shouldn't pick the zapping looker types like Deep Impact descendants. Okay.

The End

Caterpillar

8:27 p.m. As I mentioned about the barriers, the result of the draw has been announced and it looks like Umbrail and Bond Girl, the second and third favored in expected win odds have drawn the lucky posts.

Bond Girl doesn't seem to be the type to perform well in Queen Stakes, at least not to me but well, since she drew the lucky post perhaps I should keep in mind that she could be advantaed.

Also, I've realized that horses running Tokyo turf in their previous races are performing well. At least one horse running at Tokyo previously finishes in the top three of Queen Stakes every year, and the most promising race is Victoria Mile Cup.

Six horses that ran Victoria Mile Cup are entered this year, Umbrail, Conch Shell, Stunning Rose, Kita Wing, Doe Eyes, and Moryana.

The End

Caterpillar

9:21 p.m. Have been switching tabs to sneek peeks at the live streaming of Sumidagawa Fireworks Festival while narrowing down the candidates for Queen Stakes. But then, the forecast threatens there might be a chance of rain tomorrow morning in Sapporo out of the blue.

Depending on the precipitation, I'll have to think of a plan B or a plan C in cases when the turf gets soft or damaged. I haven't even been able to narrow down the candidates from the horses that ran Victoria Mile in their previous race, though it was supposed to be keyed on my wheel. Uh-oh.

The currently surviving horses are Umbrail, Conch Shell, Win Pyxis, Stunning Rose, Koganeno Sora, and Doe Eyes. Kita Wing has been deleted from the list. Bond Girl is also gone despite being the most favored.

The End

Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. I apologize for underestimating Bond Girl especially, when she's drawn the lucky post.

Because I thought that the track condition must be quite tough although it was anounced to be good to firm, I keyed Koganeno Sora on my wheel. Also, I thought that it was either Bond Girl or Umbrail. Umbrail could be more powerful than Bond Girl so I decided to keep Umbrail and look what happened.

After all, the lucky posts had reasons to stage high performers almost every year, most importantly, that horses starting from post numbers 1 and 2 could usually take the most efficient course without distance loss.

Why then, did Umbrail sink in tenth place while Bond Girlfinished second? Umbrail simply didn't meet what was required to perform well in Queen Stakes where Bond Girl did. I misjudged them. I should have paid more attention on the evaluation, not switching tabs to sneek peek at fireworks.

The End

Caterpillar

7:30 p.m. Okay. So this week we're having only dirt grade races, Leopard Stakes and Elm Stakes, of which I'm going to choose Elm Stakes. Elm Stakes, because it's Sapporo dirt 1700m.

Sapporo dirt 1700m is distinctive, often resulting in tight laps. When combined with a full-field, Sapporo dirt 1700m can bring us big payouts. Thus I choose Elm Stakes.

Dura Erede is entered and with Yutaka on his back, is likely to be the most favored. Since the horse has won a Sapporo dirt 1700m race when he was 2 years old, Dura Erede would be the horse to beat however, there's a chance he might not reach the top in case something happens. Let's cross our fingers and hope for the best.

The End

Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. I've started analyzing Elm Stakes.

Because Sapporo dirt 1700m is a course with four corners which aren't so tight for a local course with shorter homestretch, it seems to benefit front runners. Every year, at least one horse turing the last corner within fourth from the top position is finishing above third place, sometimes even domnating the top 3.

As for the step race, horses that performed well in Marine Stakes in their previous races are doing pretty well. No wonder sice there are a few similarities between Marine Stakes and Elm Stakes. I can also see some benefits of running Marine Stakes as well.

Stupid Cow and I have been summoned by our friend Mr. N-jima and are going out tomorrow. The old guy is having a colonoscopy for the first time in his life, and we, the expereienced, are expected to ease him of his nervousness. So I'm going to skip tomorrow, just to let you know.

The End

Caterpillar