6:46 p.m. Putting aside my concerns for Japan Cup, must start working on Argentina Republic Cup held this weekend. We're having a short recess from G1s as usual.

Looking at the past 10 years of results, it's clear that descendants of European sires, especially the Roberto line are doing well. Super Moon who was a Bryan's Time descendant or Screen Hero's descendant Gold Actor are good examples. Meiner Virtus, Fly Like Bird also had Roberto line background in their sireline, while Meisho Kadomatsu, Seda Brillantes, Makoto Galahad, Perform a Promise, Taisei Trail, Authority had Roberto blood in their broodmare sire.

I guess the turf condition and the distance makes it easier for tough European blood to come into action. Mr. Prospector line also seem to perform well in the sense that toughness is required though it needs to be assisted with some sharpness.

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Caterpillar

8:04 p.m. Have been a good caterpillar and preparing for Argentina Republic Cup but my, whata low-level competition this race has become! It was once a prestigious grade race where the future champion horses ran as their step race. It's really a pity that few G1 class horses are entering nowadays. The best you can get is Aristoteles who prformed a deadheat with THAT Contrail 3 years ago, or You Can Smile who finished one and a half length behind THAT Fierement even way back in 2018 which is 5 years ago.

I checked to see if there were any competitors having Roberto in their sireline to luckily find two, while another one turned out to have Roberto in its broodmare sire line. The former two were Aristoteles and Meiner Virtus with the latter one being Chuck Nate.

It's hard to imagine Aristoteles suddenly coming back to life with his Roberto blood bubbling in his veins, just because he's starting his new life at a new stable. I mean, what have you been doing all this time after Kikka-sho or AJCC, right? My guess is that perhaps Chuck Nate might have a better chance at it.

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Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. The barriers for the weekend races have been drawn while JBC races have been run, Mr. N-jima fully comitting himself to JBC, and I've been going out for my daily exercise, attending to messages, penning in my schedule, then cleaning. Unfortunately, couldn't fit in the visit to the clinic.

The old guy has won 3 races out of 6 today, which seems to be a pretty gould result. He's been pressing me for my opinion on Miyako Stakes and Argentina Republic Cup, though haven't had the time to look into it yet. Well, not really. I've got my own life to live, you know?

Am currently getting quite interested in Chuck Nate, but somehow people around me keep interrupting my vain attempt to focus on whatever it is at that moment I'm trying to do. I wish they'd just leave me alone and let me do my job.

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Caterpillar

8:11 p.m. The old guy seems to have won a huge payout today winning Kifune Stakes. I don't really mind how much money he wins because I know he's also been losing quite as much, but I wish I new a way to get away from his bragging. It gets me consumed while I'm trying to focus on other things.

Have been quite consumed with selfish people lately, people who brag about having a great family, people making a fuss attempting to make me change my schedule for an appointment of their convenience, people thinking that they've done nothing wrong while they're making deals with other companies in the same industry and working with me at the same time. They come and go whenever they like, they're just takers while I'm expected to give, give, give and give endlessly for such a small amount of money. What am I, your mother? Humph.

Don't think I could win tomorrow as I'm in such a negative vibe all sulky and venomous, but well I'm keying Chuck Nate and Zeffiro on first, second, third. Served with Plume d'Or and Meiner Virtus on the second place of my exacta formation, third place on my trifectas, for your information. Mmm, it sounds kind of yummy.

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Caterpillar

8:06 p.m. Wow! Didn't think I'd win both exacta and trifecta. And I didn't expect a dead heat for the 3rd place either. Think it's the first time in my life that I'd been blessed by a dead heat. I actually thought that Heat on Beat had taken over Chuck Nate at the post until I checked the results and dicovered it was a dead heat.

Have put my weight on exactas so the payout wasn't much for the trifecta, still it's better, much better than losing. If Heat on Beat had finished 3rd, I wouldn't have had that additional payout for my trifecta. The exacta payout wasn't much either since the winner Zeffiro was the odds-on favorite but I've put two thirds of my bet on exactas as mentioned, so that brought me back enough money to feel satisfied.

It wasn't a huge win like the old guy, though enough to make my dinner more tasty than usual. Now if you'll excuse me, let me go and enjoy my more tasty than usual cuury with rice.

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Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. Have finished my visit to the clinic task. My doctor asked me how I'm doing so I said "Great!" I meant both my health condition and betting results, though unfortunately the doctor didn't seem to catch the joke.

Menwhile messages have been flying back and forth between Mr. N-jima and me. While I'm trying to focus on analyzing Queen Elizabeth Cup run this weekend, the guy keeps asking me about horses that are entered in Muromachi Stakes that might interfere with his T M Tokkyu. Who knows, damn it. I told him gibberish. Perhaps Eis Lien might do something as she's carrying the lightest weight, but then Arms Reign could be better as he's already beaten Eis Lein and no, I don't think Dualist won't do that well with his 59kg which is the heaviest weight in this handicapped race.

Because I've been occasionally distracted by these messages, I haven't been able to look into it closer but again, Roberto sire line seems to be perfoming well in Queen Elizabeth Cup for the past 10 years. Sires in relation with Sunday Silence are also doing well, though it seems to be better to have European blood in the broodmare sire in that case.

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Caterpillar

6:25 p.m. Darn, have made another mistake. Queen Elizabeth Cup was held at Hanshin for the past two years just like Shuka-sho or Kikka-sho, I've forgotten about that. Dummy.

Excluding the past two years, there were only two times when the Roberto line performed well year 2013 and 2016. When Meisho Mambo won in 2013, the track was soft. This suits the strongpoint of Roberto descendants that they are good with power-consuming tough races. As for 2016 when Sing with Joy finished 2nd, the track was firm, so I'm not sure what tipped her in. Note that both horses had Roberto blood in their broodmare sire.

Rnewing recognition, I realize it's rather the Sunday Silence line that have been performing well all along. Though it seems better to have European blood in their broodmare seire line as mentioned yesterday. Horses with European blood performs well in an anti-mainstream distance as this as well as Deep Impact descendants. Might have come up with a hopeful horse to key. The question is what other horse to combine?

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Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. Checking out my past notes on Queen Elizabeth Cup trying to ignore the repetitive notification sound and stupid Cow's mumbling. I hope he learns how to shop on Amazon without distracting me.

My apology again, for writing the race was held at Hanshin for "the past two years". Correctly, it was 6quot;the past three years" since it was already run at Hanshin in year 2020. Have realized that while searching for my notes that I had to go 4 years back which was similar to a task like digging in a hay stack. After a lot of searching, I found a text file pinned on the edge of my desktop. The past me was smart enough to keep it where I can easily spot it.

According to my notes from 2019, it would be hard for horses that lost below 6th place in their previous races to perform well. In the past 7 years excluding the last 3, 3 horses have finished within 3rd place, two of them running in Fuchu Hinba Stakes in their previous races, one in Shuka-sho. Guess step races should be in high level especially when lost.

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. Wonder if you've ever heard of rucking? It's a kind of exercise to walk while carrying weight on your back. It's said to be a low impact exercise based on military training workouts giving you lots of benefits and since I've been walking almost daily, I've took up rucking for my daily exercise a couple of months ago.

Today I've been out shopping carrying my now familiar weight of 6.5kg when stupid Cow added some items to my shopping list which turned out to be pretty heavy for me to carry. When I came home and put the shopping bag on the scale, it weighed 4.8kg. So I've carried 11.3kg, haven't I? What kind of hard training is this?

The horses entering Queen Elizabeth Cup should be glad they're not under such spartan training as myself. By the way, if you narrow down the candidates based on what I wrote yesterday, there will be 6 horses remaining; Divina, Harper, Brede Weg, Maria Elena, Lilac, and Rouge Eveil. Might as well add Geraldina just in case, and that's 7 in total.

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Caterpillar

8:26 p.m. Struggling, fighting hard to stay awake. Didn't go out for my daily exercise today as it rained. Instead I stayed home and got my weekly cleaning done. And here's the barrier draw for Queen Elizabeth Cup.

Post numbers 1 and 2 are probaly the lucky numbers as either of them has finished within third place 3 times in the past 7 years (4 times out of 10 years if you included Hanshin-run races). That's quite a ratio. No wonder Brede Weg's odds suddenly dropped.

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Caterpillar

8:34 p.m. Came home to the shocking truth that today's Kyoto races have been run mostly on good to firm condition. Yesteday's rain must have remained although it didn't rain today. The forecast for tomorrow is predicting another overcast day and now I'm not sure how the track condition would turn out to be.

I was hoping to check the track condition and whether or not there is a bias on the course from today's results but that is difficult now. What to do? Go check out the track condition on JRA, perhaps? Darn, don't make what's difficult for me even more difficult! Uncertainties make me lose my confidence.

Well, I'd already decided my horse to key earlier so might as well keep that unchanged. Brede Weg and Lilac for exactas. As for trifectas, will key the former two with Rouge Eveil, Harper, Divina, Art House (or Maria Elena), and Kukuna on the third place. Am still undecided on Art House and Maria Elena.

Now if you'll excuse me, let me go and enjoy a Jjigae pot for the first time this season.

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Caterpillar

7:43 p.m. Kyoto turf's condition was announced to be firm from morning but I couldn't be so sure. The results of the earlier races seemed to suggest that powerful horses with European blood have the advantage.

If so, Harper might have a better shot. Harper doesn't have European blood in her background, though soft track (not too soft) is sure to benefit her as you can see from her performance in Shuka-sho. And although I wasn't quite sure of the actual track condition, I've raised Harper to the 2nd row.

Damn it! Why couldn't Lilac run just like Fuchu Hinba? Why din't I pick Rouge Eveil to move up to 2nd instead of Harper? Ooooooh that hurt! Can't anything be done about that inner post biased turf condition by the way?

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Caterpillar

7:28 p.m. My review done, let's bury the past in the past and look forward to the future, Mile Championship. It's going to be the first Mile Championship to be run on Kyoto turf in 3 years. No, I'm not gonna make the same mistake again at least not so soon after I've done the last blunder.

Horses that performed well in their previous races seem to do as well in Mile Championship according to the past 7 years of results, skipping the last 3. That makes sense as it's actually very difficult to recover from a huge loss in short distance races unless you have a good reason, good enough to explain the huge loss. And for this reason, the chances for longshots to hit the jackpot isn't big.

From the pedigree point of view, again the Sunday Silence line seems to be doing well like Queen Elizabeth Cup but they all? Yeah, all, have European blood in their broodmare sire. European horses are tough and powerful. As you can see from the results of Queen Elizabeth Cup, the turf condition is shifting from the record-breaking firm turf to a more power-consuming track after nearly a month of being stamped on and digged up by hooves.

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Caterpillar

5:24 p.m. Following what I wrote yesterday, what happens if I crossed out horses that haven't finished within 3rd place in their previous races?

16 horses are entered as of today and 9 of them would be crossed out with 7 remaining. Wah, I've already narrowed down the candidates to less than half! Though I'd like to put Justin Cafe and Selberg on hold for safe-keeeping because they've both won a grade race before they lost in their previous races.

Will have to go look into the horses' pedigree background now, but I have my monthly zoom meeting with a friend overseas coming up so will return with more hopefully, tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. Okay. So here I am checking the pedigree backgrounds of the entrees for Mile Championship. Let's pick out the horses that have European blood either in their sire line or their broodmare sire line.

Schnell Meister, Justin Cafe, Selberg, Soul Rush, Danon Scorpion, Namur, Red Mon Reve have European blood in their sire line whreas Elusive Panther, Elton Barows, Serifos, So Valiant, Danon the Kid, Bathrat Leon, Matenro Orion, Schnell Meister and Justin Cafe have it in their broodmare sire line. Note that Schnell Meister and Justin Cafe have European blood in both their sire line and their broodmare sire line.

Oh man, that applies to almost all the horses entered! That means no progress would be made even if I filtered them with the condition of performing well in their last races. Perhaps I'll just leave it here since I won't be able to go further before the barrier draw is announced. As you already know, the barrier probaly makes a big difference.

Have checked the weekend weather in the meantime and it seems Kyoto is having some rain from Friday to Saturday.

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Caterpillar

7:33 p.m. It's Thursday and although I'm exhausted, the entry for Mile Championship has been closed. 16 horses would compete for this mile G1 race as expected.

Not much to say today as the barrier hasn't yet to be drawn. But I have a hunch that the odds would be scattered among the top five or six horses meaning, the most favored win odds would not be as low as 2 point something.

Speaking of favority, when I look at the past 7 years' results (excluding the latest 3 years), 6 years has finished with horses more favored than the 7th favored. 2014 was the only year that the 8th or 9th favored horses finished in the top three. Even when including the years held at Hanshin, horses below the 10th favored in win oods has never finished in top 3. Also, the volume zone is the 1st to 3rd favored.

Perhaps it won't be such a wild race after all.

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Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. So here's the awaited barrier draw results.

Unless Bathrat Leon takes the lead at a suicidal pace, it probably won't get that tight. And unless the pace gets tight or the track soft, horses that drew outer posts will be diadvantaged. I'm afraid Namur won't win this time.

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Caterpillar

8:40 p.m. Had to clean up as M. N-jima is coming tomorrow, and then work, prepare for later cooking since stupid Cow was going to eat out tonight. Have been busy throughout the week that I hadn't decided what to cook and eat for myself. Eventually, settled an Okonomiiyaki.

Have worked on calling Mile Championships in my spare time until I was finally able to sit at the computer about an hour ago, and have reached conclusion that the inner post starters would be advantaged just as last week. Have checked today's race results, but I can't trust them as we had good to firm track condition today, though the turf would probably dry by racing time tomorrow.

Will key Elton Barows. He might have left-over damage, but if the pace isn't going to be that tight, I think he has a chance. Exacta formation of Elton Barows and Schnell Meister, with an additional Justin Cafe on the 2nd. Trifecta formation fixing Elton Barows on the top, Justin Cafe and Schnell Meister on the 2nd, Justin Cafe, So Valiant, Schnell Meister, Serifos and Namur on the 3rd place. Darn, I'm starving.

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Caterpillar

8:51 p.m. Sorry for the late update after skipping yesterday. I had to work late though it's outside of my buiness hours. Usually, I don't break my rule of working outside my business hours, but this time was special since someone's future might have depended on me.

Because of the overtime work, not only have I been able to review Mile Championship but havn't even been able to check the latest horse race news until now. What? Yutaka can't ride Do deuce? Oh man, his injury must have been quite serious. It's understandable that longer time is necessary to recover from physical damage considerig his age.

Don't have time today to do a full review, though one thing is clear, very clear in my mind. Why didn't I check my notes for Soul Rush? I thought I had understood or at least grasped under which conditions the horse performs well and yet I didn't include him in my formations because I didn't have time nor energy to find and check my notes. How regretful!

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Caterpillar

8:06 p.m Have just finished reviewing Mile Championship to come home to how helplessly stupid as well as lazy I am. If I hadn't skimped on the extra effort, I wouldn't have cut off either Soul Rush nor Namur (I did buy Namur though I actually thought she was the unwanted kid this time, thus the third row of my trifecta).

Well, there's no use lamenting about the past so will just have to look forward to Japan Cup, no, I mean nearly, almost only Japan Cup. Or should I say, probaly only Equinox and Liberty Island Cup? Oh, you know what I mean. It just drags down my motivation knowing it's likely to become a match race between these two.

Will try and see if I could find something from the past results, but don't count on me. Japan Cup has been one of the quiet, sound G1 races.

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Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. Looking at the past 10 years' results of Japan Cup, one thing I realize about the pedigree background is that horses with Sunday Silence line are doing well.

Of all 30 horses that finished within 3rd place in the past 10 years, 26 horses had Sunday Silence line either in their sire or broodmare sire. Out of the 4 remaining horses which performed well without Sunday Silence in their background, 3 of them had a combination of MrProspector and Roberto line, and 1 was a Tony Bin descendant with Northern Taste in its broodmare sire.

So I guess it would be natural to start from picking up horses that suit such condition. I'm wondering whether I should check all the entrees' background and mark S next to their names if they had Sunday Silence in their blood? I mean, there are too many of them at this point. Or perhaps I should wait till the entry is closed?

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Caterpillar

8:21 p.m. All right. It's a Thursday and since it's Japan Cup, here I have the result of the barrier draw and it looks as though JRA has kindly paved the road for Liberty Island and Equinox.

As you might already well know, the inner post drawers have the advantage. The past 10 years' results show that, too. Even when the pace has rarely become tight, it's not easy for outer post starters to perfrom well. Taking that into account, the only horse that might perform well from an outer post this year would be Stars on Earth.

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Caterpillar

8:48 p.m. Have been preparing for work and then cleaning as usual and now it's this late. When do I get to have time to research on Japan Cup? There are several things that I want to make clear though it's likely that I won't be able to.

Currently, I'm troubled by Do Deuce. Whether to include him or not I think, could be the key to winning. Yet I can't be sure his performance would improve from Tenno-sho. I rather feel like he could be the boobie trap. I mean, Do Deuce finished 1.4 seconds behind Equinox in Tenno-sho. 1.4 seconds! That's a lot to recover from, don't you think?

And yes, I know that there were horses recoverig fro their Tennno-sho losses, I'm fully alert on that matter. I'm trying to check see if there are any apparent or common trends among those horses.

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Caterpillar

8:26 p.m. Have tried hard to somehow pick out the trend from the horses that lost in Tenno-sho but recovered their performances in Japan Cup but I couldn't. There was no such thing as I could call trend or common factor.

I hate to have to say this though the odds-on favorite seems to have the advantage in this race. I hate to have to say it but I have a feeling that no good will come out from going against Equinox or Liberty Island, I'm afraid.

Mr. N-jima who's been persistent about Titleholder winning eventually seemed to have decided to bet on a quinella of Equinox and Titleholder. As for me, my conclusion is a trifecta formation fixing Liberty Island and Equinox on the first row, Liberty, Equinox, and Stars on Earth on the second, Liberty, Do Deuce, Danon Beluga, and Stars on the third row. Not much of a gamble but sometimes you can't help it.

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Caterpillar

8:42 p.m. Have finished the review for Japan Cup in good mood. Eventually, I decided to fix only Equinox on the first place of my trifecta since I thought it would be hard for Liberty Island to beat Equinox even if she carried lighter weight. It didn't matter if she was a lady or a queen, no horse can keep on winning forever.

Although the payout was a wee bit as you already know, I was lucky enough to win a trifecta. And because I knew the payout was going to be a wee bit, I've bet ten times as much as my usual bet. There aren't so many races you can win by calculation you see.

Soshina seems to be lifted up by everyone because he'd won Japan Cup with his super-narrowed trifecta bets of 6 but I'm afraid I've done the same thing though no one gives a damn about mine.

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Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. I've mentioned this so many times before but let me say it again. I've never won Champions' Cup in my life. The main reason is because I haven't been good at dirt races.

But this year I'm different. I'm not the same person I was last year nor 3 years ago. I want to win this race and I'm going to. I've learned a lot from the summer races this year as well as from the autumn G1 races in which I've been performing better than last year. This year, I feel like I could win Champions' Cup.

It also would be a touchstone issue for me whether I could win two races in a row or not, something I haven't accomplished yet this year. Well, let me just start from reminding myself not to buy horses that drew post number 11 and outer posts, unless they go to extremes in taking their positions like T M Jinsoku or Westerlund.

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Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. As many of you already know, Google has announced to delete inactive accounts from December and has been suggesting to log in to avoid having your account deleted without your knowing.

As a matter of fact, I vaguely remember making an account when I started this website though I don't even remember what it was for. I had to check this out, see if I still had the password and try logging in so that google won't delete it without my permission but I've been turning a blind eye for a while. I can't remember what I made it for but I have a feeling I should keep it while I'm running this website. So this was my biggest mission today.

Have succeeded in logging in so I guess I wouldn't have to worry about that anymore. Now, my second biggest misssion of the day, looking into the past results of Champions' Cup. Golly, it's quite obvious that Sunday Silence blood is doing a good job. A quick glance tells me there isn't a year in the past 10 without a horse that has Sunday Silence either in its sire line or broodmare sire line.

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Caterpillar

8:41 p.m. Typing the result of the barrier draw of Champions' Cup while freezing. No, the heater isn't broken. No, the electricity hasn't been stopped, the electricity bills have been paid regularly. It's just that stupid Cow is so thrifty that he doesn't want to turn on the heater.

The messenger app has been silent for a while after I'd sent the barrier results. The old guy must be racking his brains since his highly recommended Lemon Pop has drawn the outmost barrier. As already mentioned, outer posts are disadvantaged.

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Caterpillar