8:16 p.m. Honestly speaking, my sleep-deprived head is torn between two horses to key, Weltreisende and Stars on Earth. Have been thinking over and over but I just can't decide. At least not just yet.

Weltreisende has all the conditions the horse could ask of except for a soft track condition. On the other hand, Stars on Earth has the highest potential of all the entered horses however, she has her risks as I've mentioned earlier this week. Guess I'll have to struggle with this problemm overnight, darn.

The horses I'm planning to put on my wheel are Geraldina, Lagulf, Jack d'Or, either Killer Ability or Hishi Iguaz. Will have to sleep on this issue, too.

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Caterpillar

6:55 p.m. Sorry for skipping again, I had Mr. N-jima coming yesterday.

Was going to make my final decision after checking Hanshin race 9 since it was 2000m. Having seen T O Solennel run away to hit the wire, I decided Jack d'Or might have a good chance with Yutaka riding, so I keyed Stars on Earth on my trio wheel while fixing Jack d'Or on first place for my exactas.

As you already know, my trio went for a complete loss but my exacta insurance has saved me from losing it all. Thank goodness. It was much later that I learned Soshina had keyed Weltreisende.

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Caterpillar

7:47 p.m. Have reviewed Osaka-hai as well as my notes from last year's Ohka-sho. Osaka-hai's review has given me insight but Ohka-sho's just got me embarrassed.

What was I doing? Score scale? What a blunder! From waht I'm feeling, this enormous embarrasment that's making me feel like I want to dig ahole and hide myself in it, I can say from the bottom of my heart now that this year's me is definitely different from last year's me. I wouldn't have felt this way if I were the same person.

The only thing I could approve from last year is that top 3 horses from Hanshin JF have might better chances since Ohka-sho runs on the same course and in the same distance. Liberty Island seems to be a step ahead in that sense, but there may be chances for a comeback for those who have lost big in Hanshin JF if there were apparent reasons.

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Caterpillar

7:54 p.m. Looking at the entry form for Ohka-sho, making a wild guess on the pace.

26 horses are currently entered in the race however, 7 of them are sumitted to exclusion with Rivara announcing to scratch off. That leaves 18 horses. If they all run, it's going to be a full-field race.

There are several front runners though Mozu Meimei might be the one to take the lead. If so, the lap won't get that tight I reckon, since Mozu Meimei's pace is roughly estimated to be 35 seconds for the first 3 furlongs, give or take a few. Ohka-sho could become an instantaneous speed contest. Not to mention I need to wait another day till the barrier draw is announced so I could take into account.

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Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. Okay, the barriers are out!

Getting the impression that the favored horses all clustered to inner posts. That could become another risk factor for horses staying behind especially when the pace lags. A leisurely pace is likely since Mozu Meimei drew an inner post and could probably take the lead.

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Caterpillar

7:54 p.m. Tried launching my old laptop to check on my webcam one last time before my web meeting tomorrow. It transpired the webcam I thought I fixed actually wasn't fixed. And the trouble seems to go down as far as updating BIOS while my old laptop didn't even have apps mounted to upload it, which means I have to start from download/installing the app.

Now that shall make it easy to imagine that I hadn't had time and won't either to fully prepare for Ohka-sho. Haven't even been to check the odds today, but if what I'm thinking isn't off the mark I'm beginning to think it might not be such a bad idea to key Mozu Meimei.

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Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. Struggling.

Have worked hard after 2 hours of web meeting however, can't quite figure out which horse to key yet. So far I'm down to Liberty Island, Doe Eyes, Kona Coast, Perifania, Ravel and Tosen Laurier. Mozu Meimei, I've cut out for now. Might include her depending on tomorrow's results of Hanshin race 7, though it's doubtful to give me enough information since it's a small-field race.

Perhaps I should meekly accept Liberty Island's ability and put her on the key, but she's too favored. That's enough to freak me out, you know. Will make my final decision tomorrow anyway.

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Caterpillar

7:17 p.m. Really should have meekly accepted Liberty Island's outstanding talent.

After watching Hanshin race 7, I decided only front runners could perform well on this track and keyed Mozu Meimei on a wheel of Liberty Island, Haprper, Kita Wing, Perifania, and Tosen Laurier (where did Kona Coast go?).

As you know I've been severely punished for deceiving Liberty Island. Forgive me Liberty Island, I didn't think you were that great. I take my hat off. Taking over 16 horses to win by 3 quartes length is not what many horses could do. I'm sure you'd be even more favored in Oaks but I won't deceive you next time however worried I am that you could be injured putting too much strain on your legs.

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Caterpillar

8:04 p.m. My frst impression of Satsuki-sho entrees is that there are many front runners meaning, there's a chance for the pace to get tight. And if the pace gets tight, the payout could become big. Though that wouldn't matter as long as I'm losing.

It's going to be a melee anyway, as the expected win odds show. The top two favored today are Sol Oriens and Phantom Theif, both of which are trial grade race winners. Don't remember Kyodo Tsushin-hai well but I vaguely remember Sol Oriens winning Keisei-hai, thinking this horse would probably make it to the top group of this generation.

I wonder if Sol Oriens could handle a full-field race well, though he's already proven his high aptitude against Nakayama 2000m. On the other hand, Phantom Thief seems quite good at firm, fast track condition though I believe his Kyodo Tsushin-hai win was a result of the G1 boost from Hopeful Stakes. If I'm forced to chosse between the two, I'd say Sol Oriens for now.

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Caterpillar

7:34 p.m. Scanning for horses that might perform well in a tight lap. Danon Touchdown, maybe? But he needs to more up front. Bellagio Opera is also a Lord Kanaloa descendant that might do well in a tight pace though I'm afraid he could be fatigued. Spring Stakes was quite consuming. The more concerning is Top Knife. Seems to me the horse could burst anytime.

The weekly forecast for Nakayama says we're in for full-fledged rain from late Saturday to Sunday morning. The humidity is said to stay on 80% throughout Sunday morning, so there's a chance the track could get soft. That surely would be a disadvantage for fatigued horses, I reckon.

Please note that these are all my personal opinion at this point in time. Situation will change and so will my opinion accordingly.

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Caterpillar

5:41 p.m. What happens if the track gets soft? Which horse would have the advantage?

Can't say anything concrete at this point since it largely relies on the pace and the barrier draw as I always say. Generally, though the front runners and inner post starters would have the advantage especially, when the race is run in a lagged lap. Additionally, Nakayama 2000m is a course setting that gives benefit to horses taking their poistions in the front when they turn the last corner. Horses staying behind need to raise their positions to 5th from the leader by the last corner in order to take over.

Another thing is that horses that don't like to be squashed between others would be blessed when the track condition gets soft because the field would break up on soft tracks. Unfortunately, this suits most all entrees except for Meiner Laulea who is a Gold Ship descendanat and performs better in or among fields of horses. Now if you'll excuseme, I have another zoom meeting with an ailing internal webcam.

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Caterpillar

7:31 p.m. The barrier draw is out and it looks like it's going to be an interesting race.

From the way the horses are lined up and that Granite is probably the type to take the lead distancing the others, there's a good chance the race is going to be run in a tight lap. If so, wouldn't have to worry about horses that don't like to run among the field. That would only give me more options, though.

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Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. Chances of Nakayama turf to get good or even soft is increasing.

The forecast says we're in for another full day of rain tomorrow, falling heavily from morning to dusk. Rainfall is expected around Nakayama consecutively until early Sunday morning, turnig to cloudy skies with occasional rain by noon. Sounds to me like we won't be having a firm track condition.

Horses starting from outer posts taking their positions behind are likely to have a hard time under such condition. Even if the pace tightens up, it would be difficult to take over the horses up front considering their distance loss.

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. I'm thinking Satsuki-sho wouldn't finish safe and sound.

Assuming the track won't dry off to firm and the pace likely to get tight, it's nonsense to persist on the favored horses. My tentative candidates are Sol Oriens, Hrimfaxi, Ho O Biscuits, Shazzan, Tastiera, and Bellagio Opera.

Haven't decided which horse to key yet. Intuitively I'd like to go for Shazzan but to be more realistic, perhaps Sol Orience might be a better choice. Will sleep on it for a night till I make my final decision tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

7:32 p.m. This week it was Nakayama race 8 that misled me. I'd blindly assumed that inner post starters were disadvantaged because the inner course could have been damaged, and there was also the risk of not being able to guide the horse from the rail to the outside.

The freaked out me have chosen Ho O Biscuits as the key on my wheel while cutting out Tastiera for no reason. Biased as I was, I didn't even realize what I was doing until I saw Sol Oriens sweep all the others from the outside, recalling the memory of Keisei-hai. Oh, gosh. I'm helpless.

The horse would probably win the D'erby, too though he'd definitely would be the odds-on favorite.

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Caterpillar

9:06 p.m. Have finished reviewing Satsuki-sho fighting sleepiness, dozing off from time to time.

It was crucial to do the review and find myself a solution since I knew one of the main reason for not only my Satsuki-sho loss but also Tkamatsu-no Miya Kinen, was that I wasn't really sure which factor to put the wight on when I knew it was going to be a wild race.

Think I've successfully found the answer to my questions so hopefully I could win the next chance. You never know. It could be this week or 10 years later. Still, I know, you know, we all know it will come again. As they say, well prepared means no worries.

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. We have a week before Titleholder runs the spring Tenno-sho. Flora Stakes, a trial for Oaks is going to be held at Tokyo, Fukushima Hinba Stakes at Fukushima, and Yomiuri Milers' Cup at Kyoto.

Yes, the rennovation of Kyoto Racing Course has finally be done and races will start running from this weekend. Fukushima Hinba Stakes annually pays out big so it's tempting really, but since it's run on Saturday, my options are either Flora Stakes or Milers' Cup.

Need to check out how things turn out on the renewed Kyoto turf considering Tenno-sho, but perhaps it's better safe to go for the opening week Tokyo turf even though it's a trial for 3-year-old fillies. Will decide later.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. Have been occaionally checking out news on renewed Kyoto racing course but most of the news are picking up how the facilities have been renewed and I haven't been able to catch much information about the tracks.

What I want to know are the features of the renewed Kyoto race course. We're having races from this weekend. How can one call a race when you don't know the features of the turf and dirt tracks? How am I supposed to make assumptions when I have no idea which type of horses would be more advantaged by the course setting, the front runners or the trailers?

That said, I'm rather tilting towards Flora Stakes.

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. The weather for this weekend's Tokyo seems to hold as far as I know, so I'm thinking the track would be firm and fast.

Assuming that the front runners won't stop, perhaps I should go for a dark horse that could take the lead. Can't say anything certain at this point even before the barrier draw, but horses that might take the lead currently are Queen of Soul and Golden Hind.

Some other horse could actually take the lead though, depending on the barrier draw. It's rare for fillies to run a longer distance race at this point so the possibility is open to all horses in theory.

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Caterpillar

8:15 p.m. The barriers have been drawn for the weekend races and I've decided to go for Flora Stakes though it's a trial race for fillies only.

The weather seems to hold as I guessed earlier so Tokyo turf probaly would be firm and fast. In such situation, the most favored So Dazzling doesn't look so dazzling to me. In fact she looks doubtful. I'd rather choose descendants of say, Harbinger, Rulership, Epiphaneia, Deep Impact, Lord Kanaloa, Kurofune, etc.

If Golden Hind takes the lead as expected, the pace is likely to drop to a slow which means another instantaneous sped contest. Horses that could go up front would be a better choice, I reckon.

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Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. I did expect this to happen. But well, I struggled figuring out which horse might have the chance to perform well while most of them have merely run a race or two. It's like finding a needle from a haystack while you don't know what a needle looks like.

The few things I know is that the track is going to be fast and the pace probaly slow, so high performers need instantaneous speed. So I've done my best to guess horses that might fit such condition.

Am going to key England Eyes on a wheel of So Dazzling, Queen of Soul, Kiminonawa Maria, Golden Hind, and Deux Moulins.

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Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. As is the case with me, I'm always a little too short of everything. Today I was too short by a got the impression that the features of Kyoto turf basically haven't changed that much from before. Then the question would be which horse Titleholder brings with him.

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But then I've had another good experience to learn a bit more. Besides, what would I do for Tenno-sho if I won this weekend? I mean, that'd put me under too much pressure wouldn't it?

Will have to look into it more closely, but I've

Caterpillar

8:03 p.m. It was a day of blunders. I was beside myself for the whole day piling up blunder after blunder. Going out shopping to come back halfway realizing I hadn't bought what I set out for then returning to the shop, things like that. I actually did that twice before I got home.

No one could blame me if I did another one here, but Kyoto seems to be having full-fledged rain on Sunday. That's what the weather forecast said yesterday. Given that beating Mr. Titleolder is getting difficult than ever.

Will have to see which horse (besides Mr. Titleholder) would be advantaged by the rain-softened track. Breakup or Melody Lane perhaps?

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Caterpillar

7:33 p.m. Looking back on the bloodline of Tenno-sho spring.

There was a time when Heart's Cry descendants performed well year after year though this trend has been replace by Deep Impact descendants from 2019. However, this didn't last long. Last year the only Deep Impact descendant entered was Tosen Cambina finishing in 10th place, which put a period to Deep Impact's dynasty.

Or is there a chance for Deep descendants to pay a come back this year? Currently there are five of them entered, Ask Victor More, Justin Palace, Deep Monster, Diastima, and Tosen Cambina. I'd say Ask Victor More the most likely, if I were to choose one from these five.

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Caterpillar

7:14 p.m. Sorry for skipping yesterday, I had some family affairs to take care of. Meanwhile the barriers for Tenno-sho spring has been drawn, so let's take a look.

Titleholder is probably faster than either Diastima or African Gold, so I think he'd take the lead and the pace would settle for an average regardless of the track condition. On that premise, horses that performed well in their previous races that could either go up front or have outstanding instantaneous speed, and could take an upfront position at the last corner would have the advantage. Meaning that Titleholder can't lose big unless Nikei-sho was a fake.

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Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. Very tired. I've been out to a distant place on foot. It once was part of my commuting route, but somehow it got me quite tired. I could be losing physical strength. Need some rehab.

Have checked the weather for Kyoto right now and it says rain will start falling from tomorrow afternoon, turning to full-on rain in the evening continuing throughout the night to finally stop some time late Sunday morning. No wonder Titleholder's win odds has dropped to 1.3.

Currently, Titleholder, Ask Victor More, Justin Palace are the top 3 favored, followed by Deep Bond, Silver Sonic, and Boldog Hos. Wonder why Boldog Hos is hovering around here? Perhaps because he drew an outer post? But Silver Sonic is even more out, hmmm. Well, tomorrow is a holiday and having no work means I could spend some time to ponder over the race.

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Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. Unexpected news has been brought. One, that African Gold is eager to take the lead, and two, that the renewed Kyoto tracks have good drainage.

Personally, I don't think African Gold can lead the field to the last corner. My guess is that he would be taken over by Titleholder at an early stage. Nevertheless, I will have to expect the unexpected that the race could be run in a tight lap.

As for the drainage, it's said to be so good that the turf won't get so soft as to become heavy despite the rainfall predicted in Kyoto. I've already reached a temporal conclusion but might have to rethink it taking these new information in account.

For now, I'm keen on betting on trifectas keying Titleholder and Ask Victor More on the first. Ask Victor More and Boldog Hos would be on the second row, and on the third row I'll put Justin Palace, Ask Victor More, Humidor, Breakup, and Matenro Leo, while Humidor and Breakup might be deleted. Am also thinking of buying exactas for inurance from Titleholder and Ask Victor More.

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Caterpillar