6:54 p.m. The entry has been closed for Yasuda Kinen. On the expected win odds list, Jack d'Or is closing in on Sodashi possibly, because his workout has finished in a seemingly success. Seemingly, in the sense that I'm still skeptical of this horse's performance in Yasuda Kinen.

The weather is concerning. According to Japan Meteorological Agency, rain is expected from tonight around Tokyo Race Course throughout tomorrow, turning to heavy rain tomorrow night. Saturday's forecast is mostly cludy skies with partial rain while Sunday is expected to be cloudy with partly sunny skies. Hmm.. hard to guess, not sure what to make of it.

Wonder what kind of pace Jack d'Or would set? Probably not a tight lap, I reckon. I mean, what kind of horse would take the lead in a tight lap in his first mile race, right? But then, what if Jack d'Or doesn't take the lead? We're all so convinced that Yutaka would definitely make a rocket start like Mozu Meimei, but what if he doesn't this time?

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Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. The barrier draw for Yasuda Kinen has been released. And hey, it' raining cats and dogs here in Tokyo by the way.

Erm, unless Win Carnelian claims to go, Jack d'Or would probably take the lead and then the pace would settle for an average. If Win Carnelian pushes, then the pace would get much tighter, I suppose. Need to check on the track condition considering the pouring rain.

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Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. Tired as usual. It looks like the rain has gone now and the turf would probably recover to firm by tomorrow afternoon.

Having a hard time picking the horses to buy as there are multiple horses that ought to pay me back such as Namur, Schnell Meister, Meikei Yell, or Elusive Panther. I've counted on them more than once but they haven't paid me back yet.

Anyway, my temporal conclusion is to key Gaia Force. His family background tells that the horse was born to run Tokyo mile. On the wheel would be Serifos, Sodashi, Namur, Schnell Meister, and Win Carnelian. Am expecting Meikei Yell and Elusive Panther to pay me back some other time.

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Caterpillar

6:59 p.m. Sorry that it's become almost like a ritual to skip on Sundays, I've been out again to the off-track betting. Last week it was only a nose away from winning but this time it's been a neck away. Looks like I'm distancing myself from winning.

To be honest, I was torn between keying Gaia Force and Serifos Saturday night and couldn't quite make up my mind by the race. And because I was such an idiot, I've unnecessarily played around with the horses on the wheel to knock out Schnell Meister and Win Carnelian, while filling up with Songline and Elusive Panther, drrr.

Illogical, that was a totally illogical action. I tend to act irrationally when I have my back against the wall. Need to do something about that as I'd be losing all G1 this spring except for February Stakes if I go on like this.

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Caterpillar

7:25 p.m. Mr. N-jima has attempted to draw my attention to Hakodate Sprint Stakes, since T M Tokkyu, the horse he's been marking is entering the race.

Yes, I admire the horse's speed and his recent high performances, but feel reluctant to try my luck on a dirt horse suddenly aimed for a turf grade race. Perhaps there might be a chance for T M Tokkyu to hit the wire from wire if he could easily take the lead without having any other horse poke him along the way.

Nevertheless, carrying 57kg weight against Bouton dOr, Moon Probe, or Rivara's 52kg is an obvious risk. Would rather go for Epsom Cup in Tokyo. The track condition would at least be easier to judge than Hakodate.

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Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. Sorry to hear that Panthalassa has been injured. If he'd been in Takaraduka Kinen, I'm sure the race would have been in a tight lap but that won't come true any more. Equinox definitely would be the odds-on favorite now.

On the other hand, T M Tokkyu seems to make it to Hakodate Sprint Stakes. Who knows, maybe he would win.

Have finished up on my Yasuda Kinen review unexpectedly discovering that I had somehow marked Dolce More on the bubble sheet to buy betting tickets by mistake. And so I'm trying to move on to Epsom Cup held this weekend while Cow keeps distracting me reading news topics aloud, humph.

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Caterpillar

7:02 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend races. Matenro Sky may be able to take the lead in Epsom Cup so he'd probably set the pace.

T M Tokkyu has also made it but he has a rival called Jasper Krone this time. The barrier draw would play a large role in the behavior of Jasper Krone I reckon, and I think it would be better for T M Tokkyu to draw an outer post in order to perform well.

Meanwhile, First Force the winner of this year's Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen has announced a shocking(?) retirement. Meaning, the horse won't be in Kita Kyusgu Kinen, Silkroad Stakes, or Centaur Stakes any more and that this year's Sprinters' Stakes would be a rat race. Have seen an interesting TV program on Joao Moreira by the way.

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Caterpillar

7:54 p.m. Darn, it took too much time. I had to check and correct some English sentences. Just a couple of short sentences with a bunch of errors including spelling mistakes, part of it incomprehensive even after referring to the Japanese translation.

Okay, so the barriers are drawn and it looks like Matenro Sky could take the lead which means that Epsom Cup will not be in a tight lap. I'm setting the pace slow. And if the pace lags, horses with instantaneous speed will be advantaged as always. But I've got myself a nice filter to filter-out (possibly) just the necessary horses this year, tee-hee!

As for Hakodate Sprint Staes, T M Tokkyu has drawn post number 10, which seems to be good enough for the horse as he probably wouldn't like being jammed. Not that it matters as long as he takes the lead.

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Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. Weather forecast says we've entered the rainy season and the rain is likely to come back again tomorrow. And the sad news is that the nice little filter I've prepared probably won't work when the track is soft.

I was completely at a loss to discover this situation especially, after using so much brain resource for work. Forcing my poor brain to work while fighting sleepiness and fatigue, the only thing I could come up with was King Kamehameha descendants do well when extending distance from inner posts on soft track.

So I'm taking my chances and keying Air Lolonois on a wheel of Matenro Sky, Kawakita Reverie, Rain from Heaven, and Rouge Eveil. Still undecided whether I should include Yamanin Sympa or not. Hakodate Sprint? Well, if I revive tomorrow, perhaps I might go for exactas keying T M Tokkyu.

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Caterpillar

7:39 p.m. The track condition was good to firm and the pace turned out to be average. Under such condition, there's little chance for a horse taking its position the last of all 17 horses at the first corner. I rather admire the fact that Air Lolonois finished 5th place from that position.

And guess what? I've actually added L'Excellence on the 3rd row of my trifectas, ha! What, is this supposed to be a game of getting closer to winning but not really winning? In fact, I've just found myself the cheapest shop that sells Havaianas flip-flops and just when I tap on the color button they tell me they're sold out.

If this is some sort of chicken race, I'm pretty sure I could be the champion.

The End

Caterpillar

6:24 p.m. Having reviewed Epsom Cup I might have made a terrible mistake. I might have jumped to conclusions in haste about my nice filter just because the track conditon wasn't firm.

The result of the race shows that the filter actually could have worked well if put to use. It's just that I wasn't skillful enough to make it work. I mean, judging from the race rsults, it seems to work even better on soft track.

If what I'm thinking is right, this nice little filter should work for all JRA turf race courses so I'd like to check that this weekend with Tokyo and Hanshin. Naturally, I'd go for Mermaid Stakes this weekend rather than Unicorn Stakes. Though I'll keep a watch on Unicorn, too as I want to see how Perriere performs. He should also be a good scale to measure Yuttitham or Derma Sotogake.

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Caterpillar

8:01 p.m. Looking at the past 10 years of Mermaid Stakes results. Win Mighty has won last year, which means she's got what she needs to win a Hanshin 2000m, if she's in good condition.

However, Mermaid Stakes doesn't seem to be a race for repeaters at least, for the past 10 years. There isn't a single horse that finished within top 3 consecutively. Not one, I tell you. Win Mighty also has to carry 56kg weight this year, because she won this race last year with 54.

What's more is that Win Mighty has moved from Igarashi stable to Nishizono stable (due to trainer Igarashi's retirement) and Mermaid Stakes is going to be the first race after she moved. It's been said horses are likely to win on their first race after a stable change, but moving to a stable that keeps Ishibashi on Tagano Beauty's back while having African Gold suddenly take the lead against Titleholder and get injured just doesn't look good to me.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. Apparently, I perform better with good preparation. In that sense, preparation is everything to me when trying to draw the best out of me.

When I'm fully prepared, I feel confident and usually don't give a damn what other people say. Otherwise, I feel insecure and get swung around by whatever others say. I've learned this from experience so I'm dutifully preparing for Mermaid Stakes but then, what kind of difficult race is this? I mean, many of the entrees are from the 2 wins category while Mermaid Stakes is a G3.

There's a 7kg gap between the top weight carrier Win Mighty and the lightest Billboard Queen, you know. And they're all female horses. If there's anyoe who could win this race with confidence, I'd like to know.

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Caterpillar

7:19 p.m. The entry has been closed and Mermaid Stakes which I expected to be run with 15 or 16 horses turned out to run with just 13 horses. Well, the fact that it consists of mostly lower class horses stays the same.

Despite all my doubts, Win Mighty seems to have demonstrated a great workout finishing the last furlong in 10.9 seconds, wow. Yomiuru Daily reports that her condition has improved enough to be trained on woodchip course with resistance, while her habit of hanging in has also improved to change her ring bit to a normal racing bit. That's quite an improvement, isn't it?

So there actually might be a scene for Win Mighty to win this race two years in a row. But experience warns me not to trust such information blindly, that the horse's good condition doesn't always fetch wins so I'm trying ro be careful.

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. So the barrier draw has been announced and from the lineup I'm setting the pace as average. Although the position battle gets fierce sometimes, the pace doesn't usually get so tight on Hanshin 2000m especially, when it's not a full-field race.

The improved Win Mighty has drawn post number 8. I wonder how this would affect her performance since she seems to do better starting from inner posts? On the other hand, Hizuru Jo, Big Ribbon, Ho O Emmy's, Tagano Finale, Lance of Earth or Storia probaly don't like to get jammed.

Have done what I could to prepare until today, will think about the rest tomorrow as I've got other preparations to make - for work, that is. And then will take a nice hot bath and try drinking Yakult1000 which I accidentally have been able to get after all this time.

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Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. Yakult 1000 that's supposed to improve sleep quality didn't have any drastic effect on me. Perhaps you're not to expect any changes with just one dose, but then there should be some change if it really works, don't ya think? And I'm quite sensitive against change, you know?

Maybe everyone started to realize that it soesn't really make much difference whether you drink Yakult 1000 or not. That explains why I was able to find them in a local supermarket. Well, that makes sense since I've seen six-packs at another supermarket today, where there weren't any before despite my thorough search.

My current conclusion for Mermaid Stakes. Will modestly believe that Win Mighty's condition has greatly improved and key her on a wheel of Sincere Wish, Big Ribbon, and Sankalpa. Might add one or two more on the wheel, though since the outer post starters are too sparse.

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Caterpillar

6:29 p.m. The horses I bought finished first, second, fifth. This has been going on for some time as you already know, finishing first, third, fourth, fifth, or second, third, fifth, etc.

Cow has given me advice to call races thinking of winning quinellas, then buy trios. I tried it this time but it didn't work out as the reason for my loss came from a different cause that I guessed the pace wrong. I might have bought Ho O Emmy's if I'd thought the pace would be tight. My guessing the pace wrong I think, could be the main reason for my consecutive losses as well.

So here's another lesson learned. Choose the race with a specific leader so I can guess the pace right.

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Caterpillar

2:30 p.m. Starting early today. Choosing races I believe, is the first step in winning. However, I've never came to get it well, not fully understand how to choose races. Of course I've heard people say that a number of times, and I've actually had someone give it to me as an advice, but I never quite pinnned down what that was in a race that could make me win.

From the learned lesson I figured that being sure of which horse is going to take the lead helps me guess the pace right. It helps me draw the blueprint of what the race may look like, how it's going to unfold. If I could get the picture of how the race may be run, it'd help me figure out what type of horse would have a better chance at performing well. And if horses with potential high enough to perform well in a G1 plays up to their potential, eventually they'd finish within the top 3 of the race which ends up in my winning. Well, that's what I thought.

Nevertheless, assuming how the race might go is purely just assumption and it contains a lot of uncertainties. So I'm trying to combine it with other things I've learned such as the pedigree, what race a partcular horse have run previously, if the required course or track condition suits the horse or not, things like that.

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Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. Late start compared to yesterday. Had to go out but have studied a bit on the past results of Takaraduka Kinen to be reminded once again that Hashin turf was a front-runner-friendly course.

That doesn't necessarily mean that horses staying in the back don't perform well, but they need to be able to raise their positions during the race to finish within 3rd place. If they get the help of a tight lap, that'd be preferrable.

Have came accross an article ringing an alert on Equinox quoting Christophe's comment, that the horse has a weakpoint in harmonizing and because he'd taken the lead to win his previous race in Dubai, there's a risk of disharmony in Takaraduka Kinen since he'd want to stay behind Unicorn Lion or Dura Erede, rather than take the lead himself. Whereas, in my humble opinion, the horse would have no problem (at least this time) whether he stays behind or takes the lead.

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Caterpillar

8:42 p.m. Starting even later than yesterday as I had a zoom meeting with a friend. And I'm in charge of cooking Okonnomi-yaki tonight, so let me briefly explain why I think there's no problem with Equinox's harmoizing.

As you can see, Equinox has King Halo in his broodmare side. That's King Halo who struggled to keep harmony with Yuhichi Fukunaga on his back. Naturally, Equinox has been passed down the short temper I suppose. And I think that's the reason why Equinox couldn't win Satsuki-sho or D'erby, because these two races were both run extending the distance. Horses that struggle harmonizing are not good with distance extensions since the lap tend to lag and they need option conditions such as soft track, after breaks, or position changes to overcome them.

Shortening the distance is known to work as a good stimulator for such horses which explains Equinox's winning in Tenno-sho (fall) or Dubai Sheema Classic. Takaraduka Kinen is shorter than Sheema Classic meaning that it should be easier to control Equinox than having him run in say, Tenno-sho (spring).

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Caterpillar

6:05 p.m. Just as Equinox has raised his performance by shortening distances, obviously there are horses that raise their performances by extending the distance. Horses like Ask Victor More, Deep Bond or Justin Palace belong in this group. Oh, god. The barrier draw as already been announced! I forgot it was Thursday.

All right. So now you have no reason to kick out Equinox. The pace is hard to guess but I'd say it'd be a tight-ish average, so there may be chances for horses sweeping from the outside.

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Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. Have been driven by work all day. I usually do house cleaning on Sunday but had to do it today as I'm going out on Sunday and I've got work tomorrow.

After the cleaning that went into late afternoon, I had to prepare for tomorrow which is taking so much time and not yet done. Haven't had a minute to even think about Takaraduka Kinen though the clock is ticking away.

The only thing I know is that it probably won't rain so the turf would probably be dry, and that Equinox is the odds-on favorite as expected.

The End

Caterpillar

8:43 p.m. Drained. Although I've fought sleepiness as hard as I could, there might have been a second or two that I'd dozed off while checking the videos of previous races. I actually don't remember what happened from the last corner of Queen Elizabeth II Cup.

Let me make an excuse first that my brain might not be functioning properly from exhaustion. Because as I went crossing out the horses I think are less promising, I ended up with only 5 horses in total. For your information, I tried to focus on choosing horses that could win me quinellas following Cow's advice.

Not to mention, I'm keying Equinox. I've been literally mentioning that all week. On the wheel would be the remaining four horses, Danon the Kid, Through Seven Seas, Geraldina, and Geoglyph. Oh, maybe I wouldn't need Geoglyph. That makes them 4 in total, not 5. Now, let me take a nice hot bath after a nice little smoke.

The End

Caterpillar

6:50 p.m. Sorry for the repititive skipping. I was out to the off-track betting again. And the sad news is that I thought I added Justin Palace on the third of my trifectas but it somehow turned out to be Deep Bond.

I set the pace as a tight-ish average, but stupid Cow had mentioned the possibility of a tight pace Saturday night. Then I started pondering the possibility and decided that if it became a tight pace, there would be a chance for Justin Palace to finish in third place. So I thought I marked post number nine on the bubble sheet, but I think it was because I was thinking that Deep Bond is unnecessary at the time, I probably mixed up Deep Bond's post number 10 with Justin Palace's 9 and marked 10 instead of 9. What a stupid mistake...

I also bought trios though they didn't include Justin Palace, while my exactas were only for insurance with Equinox on the second. Thanks to the unbelievably foolish mistake, I couldn't sleep last night.

The End

Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. In despair, I've taken a peek at the racing form of Teiohsho coming up tomorrow night only to lose hope.

Surely, Promised Warrior would take the lead and without any interference. He would keep the pace at an average to hit the wire first. The question is which horse would be able to take him over. And since the pace won't be so tight, his rivals need to take a front position in order to take him over, while it would be harder for horses starting from outer posts to do this as they would have to bear the distance loss.

Under such condition, there are only two horses that have better chances to beat Promised Warrior, T O Keynes, and Meisho Hario. Hagino Alegrias seems to be one step behind. Meaning, that it would result in a very small payout even if you win. Too much risk to put at stake, I think I'll stay on the watch this time.

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Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. Perhaps Notturno might have a chance. The horse peforms better in smaller field races. He also performs better when extending the distance, but my take is that he won't reach the top. So personally, I'd say it's Promised Warrior, T O Keynes, Meisho Hario, and Notturno.

Have messaged Mr. N-jima to ask for his opinion to which he replied that he's already bought trifectas keying T O Keynes and Crown Pride on the first place. I suggested Promised Warrior though the old guy laughed away the idea saying it was the first time for Promised Warrior to experience both a night race and 2000m local dirt track, and that the horse would probably be gone.

Okay. If you say so. But I warned you. And maybe he's right, Promised Warrior might sink as he's gaine 10kg. We'll see.

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Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. I'm terribly sorry about yesterday, I simply forgot to do my daily routine job of writing. How could one forget one's daily routine job? I mean, I'm apalled myself.

The thing is that my carelessness has not even gone up to its maximum but even beyond it. I wasn't such a careless person especially when I was younger, but lately my attention seems to be failing me in almost everything. Guess you could imagine that from my Takaraduka mistakes.

I'm trying to get a grip on myself by making use of calendar apps or reminders, but I can't keep track of everything and some actions just slip away. Mr. N-jima didn't win Teioh-sho by the way, as his first-place-fixed Crown Pride has been beaten by Meisho Hario by a nose. So here's someone else frustrated with regrettable loss.

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Caterpillar