7:20 p.m. My new smartphone has been delivered this morning, thanks to the extremely fast extreme shipping service. But I've been busy and haven't been able to set it up yet.

The barrier draw for Niigata kinen has been released while I've been having a frustrating time, and to top the frustration, Saliera the most favored has drawn post number 1 when inner post drawers might have great advantage.

Pradaria drew post number 13. As mentioned yesterday, it would be quite difficult to beat the others in a lagged pace from the outside, for horses like Pradaria that never in its life recorded 33 seconds range for the last 3 furlongs. Same goes for Meiner Virtus. The horse performs better in a tougher race.

Got to go now and set up my new smartphone.

The End

Caterpillar

8:41 p.m. As you can imagine, I couldn't prepare much this week because of the smartphone incident. Thankfully, have finished the initial set up for my new device though the apps need to be logged in and the old datum inherited.

I think longer pondering is necessary for Niigata Kinen however it's getting late again and I'm also running out of energy, so will leave my current conclusion here.

Hate to have to do this but can't help keying Saliera, as it's hard to think the horse would sink below 3rd place with Christophe on her back. The candidates still surviving to put on the wheel are Grand Officier, Explosion, You Can Smile, Huayuan, and Balaji. Might include Phras d'Armes or Impress.

The End

Caterpillar

7:59 p.m. Saliera misfired and sank low in 7th place. The reason, I can't be sure. It could be because of the horse's condition or it could be that the horse has already reached its prime. The inner-most post wasn't ideal for a Deep Impact descendant, but 14 horses musn't have been too big a field for Saliera to handle. And the pace was just right for the horse to show here instantaneous speed.

One of the reasons I could think of is that Saliera might not be good at shortening the distance unlike many Deep Impact descendants. Or it could have been because her position was too behind. This could be it since Saliera is finishing her last 3 furlongs in 33.8 seconds, the third fastest of all and the same as Nocking Point's. And the reason Saliera's position became that behind is possibly because of shortening the distance.

It's no use when the race is over, though. I should have weighed Nocking Point heavier. And I shouldn't have listened to old Mr. N-jima. He suggested choosing Phrase d'Armes over Impress quoting the old saying, ":mares for the summer". Come to think of it, this old guy has never helped me much while I helped him win 300,000 yen advising him to include Time Flyer for Santa Anita Trophy.

The End

Caterpillar

7:06 p.m. Yeah, come to think of it. During the spring season, Mr. N-jima strongly suggested Titleholder who retired during Tenno-sho (spring), Gaia Force for Yasuda Kinen. It's a recent memory when he suggested Jack d'Or for Sapporo Kinen this summer, with none of them bringing back any wins.

I know well, in fact damn well not to take his words seriously and an emergency alarm goes off every time I hear such suggestion, yet my hands somehow disobey me to tick the check box of those horses... Me of all people would love to learn why something like that happens so I could stop doing it for God's sake.

Perhaps I should try some commitment device say, like turn off the notification of the messenger app until after the race? That shall help me focus on my own thinking and stay rational. Let's try that this week.

The End

Caterpillar

7:01 p.m. While I was walking in a nearby park for my daily exercise, a bird (I couldn't tell what kind of bird it was because it was getting dark) flew down to land on the path dropping something bright green from its beak before taking off. A closer look revealed it was a praying mantis.

The insect was laying on its back pawing desperately to get up. It was clear that the praying mantis would be crushed under some evening runner's foot before long, so I picked it up and casually threw it into the bush by the path. After some time I got home to learn from stupid Cow that he'd just found a grasshopper on my computer and let it out. I checked the hedge in front of our house where Cow had released the insect to see an impressive grasshopper in bright green, the similar tone and texture as the praying mantis.

Perhaps the grasshopper dropped by to say thanks on behalf of the praying mantis. Or perhaps they both meant to tell me to buy the green barrier (usually, barrier number 6) this week as they were both in the same color. Haven't even decided which race to buy yet Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap or Centaur Stakes, but will keep the green in mind.

The End

Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. This is not good. Lately I've been hit by severe sleepiness around this time of day even on off-work days. I'm suspecting sleep deprivation caused by the heat though am not sure. Once the sleepiness strikes, I feel groggy and have trouble focusing on anything.

I was trying to check out the past results of Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap when the sleepiness struck me this evening. Unable to focus, I struggled hard to stay awake and in my desparate attempt to force myself work on the preparation research, I threw all my questions about Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap to Bard.

A few seconds later, Bard returned me the trends it saw in the race in the form of a bullet point report. Wow. Didn't expect that to happen. I was a bit impressed and fed Bard with a string of more specific questions about the race to which it returned another bullet point report. It even suggested how the race may unfold based on the latest trends, when I wondered and asked just from curiosity if Bard could give me any opinions on how the race might turn out.

By this time my sleepiness had gone away. I'm not going to take everything Bard said for granted not to mention, but I think it's always good to have a second opinion because it reminds you of an observative standpoint. It also comes in handy when you're too sleepy to do the tasks you need to do plus, it drives away the sleepiness.

The End

Caterpillar

6:20 p.m. I was quite impressed by Bard's presentation of how Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap might unfold saying, "In the past 20 years of the Keisei Cup Autumn Handicap, horses running away from the field have won 8 races, and horses ahead of the field have won 10 races, showing that horses running away from the field and horses ahead of the field have run well. In addition, in recent years, there has been a noticeable trend of horses running well from the inside, suggesting that horses running away from the inside are likely to have an advantage in this race. Specifically, horses running away, such as Industria and Selberg, are expected to win the race by holding off horses chasing from the middle of the pack." (Transleated by Deep L)

Wait, wait. Selberg? The entry for Keisei-hai has been closed today but Selberg is not on the list. To go further, Selberg wasn't even entered.

Well, anyone can make mistakes. And I like the way how AIs can make people smile at times.

The End

Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. The result of Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap's barrier draw has ben announced for what small field of horses that have entered this race.

Industria which has been suggested by Bard has drawn post number 5, around the middle of 11 horses. It won't be good for the horse to get crushed in the field so the small field and the middle barrier would be a blessing. Soul Rush likewise, but both horses are carrying weight over 58 kg which could become an obstacle while Granite can take the lead carrying just 51kg.

The concerning thing now would be the track condition. It'd could be soft tomorrow thanks to Typhoon Yun-Yeung, though as it's the opening week for Nakayama, the condition of its turf must be pretty good like Bard mentioned. Forecast tells it'll dry off by Sunday and combined with the Nakayama course features, I have a feeling that front runners would have the advantage as they won't stop.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. Although it's a small-field race, I've struggled as usual. But I didn't fall asleep today. At least, not around this time of day. I had to get up earlier than usual today, so I took a short break a little after noon. Perhaps that worked.

Have come to notice another odd part from Bard's suggestion of how Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap might unfold. It said that horses running away such as Industria or Selberg are expected to win the race. Well, I'm afraid Industria has never taken the lead. No, not even once.

Nevertheless, I think Industria has good instantaneous speed and if he's blessed with a condition that he'd unlikely be trapped in the field, his chance to perform well will expand. I decided to key Industria on a wheel of Sould Rush, Shiny Rock, Granite, Rhinebeck, and Win Greatest.

The End

Caterpillar

5:33 p.m. Yeah, I thought the front runners would have the advantage. Though I underestimated Soul Rush not just because he had to carry the top handicap, but also because he'd stay behind. Then he suddenly springs out to the 4th position from the top. Why didn't you tell me you'd go?

On the contrary, Industria my key horse (also Mr. N-jima's key horse), lagged behind to sink in 7th place. I felt a twinge of anxiety when I received a message from old Mr. N-jima saying, "Don't worry, you'll win." It was just when Centaur Stakes had finished with his key horse Big Caesar miserably sank in 10th place, while my reccommendation Aguri and Smart Courage finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

Will have to do a thorough review on this one even though I hvave a lot of other tasks to do. I even have work tomorrow and cleaning to do since I'm passing on what I have to do today to tomorrow. We're having our first game in te rugby World Cup and I have to get all ready and set before the broadcasting begins from 7.

The End

Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. Haven't done my review yet as I had a lot of things to do today besides a client meeting, a visit to the clinic and pharmacy included.

Still, I finally learned when to buy or not to buy Soul Rush with the horse's performance in Keisie-hai Autumn Handicap. He's 5 years old, so there must be some more occasions the horse would be entered in grade races, in which I'll know whether to buy him or not. He might even run dirt races later in his career.

Drop me a line if you're interested, and I'll tell you the secret in my reply (for free). It's not even a secret, though. Anyone could learn from the horse's past performances with a bit of observance.

The End

Caterpillar

6:07 p.m. Have mostly finished my review for Keisie-hai Autumn Handicap. And just when I was starting to move on, ran into the news of Titleholder aiming for Japan Cup after he's made his come back in All Comer.

Seems rather aggressive to me but not completely against this challenge. As a matter of fact, I was just talking to stupid Cow the other night, that if a steady, reliable front runner enters Japan Cup, there may be a chance for that horse to even beat the great Equinox or Liberty Island. Since Equinox and Liberty Island both stays behind, the care for front runners tend to be forgotten. It's not easy to run away and win on Tokyo 2400m however, Kitasan Black has done in record time. There's no reason to think Titleholder can't.

Well, there's still time before Japan Cup, let alone All Comer. Let's leave this aside and focus on this weekend's races.

The End

Caterpillar

7:25 p.m. So here I am belatedly looking at the entry form and the past 10 years' results of Rose Stakes and what I noticed right away is that there's at least one horse in the top 3 finishers every year, that have previously experienced Oaks.

In fact, 12 horses (in the past 10 years) have performed well in Rose Stakes, running in Oaks in their previous race. Three of these 12 were Oaks winners while nine of them have lost in Oaks. Among the horses that had lost in Oaks, five horses had finished either fist or second in their races before Oaks. Five out of nine, so that's more than half.

The remaining 4 horses that have lost in Oaks but performed well in Rose Stakes all ran in Ohka-sho before Oaks. They can also be divided into two groups which are the type that lost in Ohka-sho though improved their performances in the gap between the winner, and the type that didn't lose big in either races.

Taking this into account, perhaps I could choose this year's key horse candidate from So Dazzling, Ravel, and Remige?

The End

Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. As we've seen yesterday, horse's entering Rose Stakes running in Oaks previously, have been steadily performing well. However, looking at the past 10 years' results, I've realized an important change in the recent years. The distance of Rose Stakes had nonchalantly been changed.

Until 2019, Rose Stakes was 1800m. Oh, yes, come to think of it it was, while the eastern trial race (for Shuka-sho) Shion Stakes had been 2000m. I used to get torn up between the two races, whether to weigh heavier the distance or the location.

There's more. Another shocking truth is that for the past 3 years, Rose Stakes has been run on Chukyo not Hanshin due to the renovation of Kyoto. Chukyo 2000 and Hanshin 2000, these look alike but are two completely different races. Will have to do my research all over again, grrrrrr.

The End

Caterpillar

7:22 p.m. Perhaps I should be relieved as well as thankful to realize the change in distance and place before the race, or even before I launched on a full-fledged preparation. There's time enough to build up my thoughts from the start.

Nevertheless, it's Friday and the barrier draw for Rose Stakes has been released. With So Dazzling, Remige and Ravel, my key horse candidates all drawing inner posts in a 17-horse race. A piece of concern goes to So Dazzling who drew the inner-most barrier of the three. So Dazzling is a slow starter and not good with being trapped in the field. If Conch Shell takes the lead (as she drew an outer post) to set tha pace moderate, there's a risk for So Dazzling to get trapped since the course is not as spacious as Tokyo.

Might as well start my preparation rather than waste time worrying about what might or might not happen.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. Have unexpectedly struggled to choose the key horse. As mentioned earlier, I thought I could simply pick one from So Dazzling, Remige or Ravel, but it turned out to be rather hard. Remige didn't meet the conditions for high performers, while So Dazzling did meet the given conditions though have the risk of being trapped.

On the other hand, Ravel also seemed to have uncertainty and unstableness in her start. I have the impression that Ravel needs to be able to run smoothly in order to make use of her power and speed. Can Rose Stakes provide the environment she needs? I got completely stuck there.

In the end, I decided to key a different horse instead. Am keying Conch Shell. Whether she takes the lead or not, she seems likely to have things her way. On the wheel would be Brede Veg, Ravel, Malaki Naia, Coconuts Brown, and Bright Jewelry. Might add So Dazzling but haven't decided yet.

The End

Caterpillar

6:49 p.m. Sorry for skipping yesterday, we had Mr. N-jima visiting with a mutual friend from Kobe. Our friend, having gone under a night shift went to sleep early, but old Mr. N-jima stayed up late enjoying the rugby World Cup match of Fiji against Australia. He seemed to have thought the next game England vs. Japan would soon follow, though gave in to sleep past 3 in the morning.

Not sure if I should call it lucky, though I got to sleep for a couple of hours before the old guy came down to get me up around 8:30. After watching Japan's game that we recorded, Mr. N-jima and our friend director O set out to the off-track betting near Suidobashi. Director O had mentioned buying trifectas fixing Lebensstil on the first place and Sol Oriens on the second for Centlight Kinen last night, but with my sleep-deprived head I decided against it. That there was no way Sol Oriens could be beaten.

Director O proved to be right to teach me the one thing I thought I already knew damn well, don't push yourself to buy races. I thought I knew it, though the consequence of my actions only show I didn't.

The End

Caterpillar

7:06 p.m. Director O went back home without incident after winning an exacta for Centlight Kinen, while Mr. N-jima seems to have won a trio. He said he gets gout sometimes, though. Hope he takes good care of himself. He's brought us some Aka-fuku and Kobe puddig as a gift which I've very much enjoyed, mmm.

The start of the autumn G1 series is getting closer and an annoucement has been released that Equinox is entering Tennou-sho (autumn). Yes, we've expected that. But now that it's officially announced Tennou-sho and Japan Cup are bound to be luxurious in the sense of entrees.

With Equinox, Do Deuce, Stars on Earth, Prognosis, Jack d'Or and Gaia Force already officially announcing entree, Danon Beluga, Shahryar, Danon the Kid or Justin Cafe are on the list of possible entrees. Whereas, Equinox, Do Deuce and Titleholder have already announced their entry in Japan Cup and Liberty Island joining them is now an open secret. Sounds exciting, eh?

The End

Caterpillar

7:03 p.m. Have changed my mindset and routine to start my preparation for the weekend races earlier in the week. The reason for my sudden change is simply because I've realized that a large chunk of my preparation task could be done without waiting for the barrier draw. After all this time, huh.

So I went on right away scrutinizing the top four or five expectedly favored horses entering All Comer and so far my conclusion is that Titleholder is undefeatable if he only takes the lead. Geraldina or Gaia Force might have the chance to perform well, but not as well as to beat Titleholder.

Haven't checked out the other horses, though. Will have to work on them later. Need special attention for Win Marylin, since if there's going to be a long shot involved, she's the one who has the chance. At least at this point.

The End

Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. The entry for All Comer has been closed while I'm fighting sleepiness. 15 horses are running this year, and Titleholder has jumped up to the most favored replacing Geraldina who dropped to the 4th favored. The second favored is Gaia Force, the 3rd Rousham Park.

It's good to have finished a large part of my preparation at this point as I have emotional leeway. Am feeling peaceful enough to respond to stupid Cow's remarks on Yahoo! News without bellowing at him to shut up. I can even sit back and watch Rousham Park get favored without cursing since he's not on my list.

Let me finish on with my preparation now as I want to move on. I've just signed out a book at the libray at finishing a 627-paged book on modern science, and it's waiting on the bedside drawer with the label "Read Me" on it.

The End

Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. All right. So the barriers have been drawn and Rousham Park has unfortunately drawn post number 13. He wasn't on my list of horses to buy and now I could lower my guard even more.

One of the reasons I'm not treating him sriously is because All Comer is a race that's friendly to inner post drawers. In the past 10 years, there are only 3 horses that finished in the top 3 starting from posts outer than 10, Glory Vase, Meiner Lacrima, and Verde Green. Meiner Lacrima should be excluded as an exception since the race was run at Niigata that year.

Glory Vase and Verde Green started from post numbers 11 and 12 respectively, and they were both just back from a five months' break. Glory Vase had already won a G1 while it was the first G2 challenge for Verde Green. What they both share in common is not just the fact that they were fresh back from a break but also hat they hadn't won in their previous races. I'm afraid Rouusham Park doesn't meet the required conditions.

The End

Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. If there's a chance for Rousham Park, that'll be when the track stays wet and soft and the pace dropping to slow. The track condition may be softer than firm but the pace is unlikely to drop if Titleholder runs away at his usual pace.

Nonetheless, Titleholder has risks, too. Who knows if he's fit enough to win? It's his first race after Tenno-sho (spring) when he injured himself to retire. Taking that into account with the fact that Titleholder has rarely finished in 2nd place, I think he'd either win or nowhere to be seen.

After a lot of hesitation, I'm keying Gaia Force. This time on trifectas, formation. Titleholder and Gaia Force on the 1st place, Geraldina and Gaia Force on the 2nd, and Matenro Leo, Geraldina, Rousham Park on the 3rd row. Rousham Park, just in case. I'm also thinking of putting insurance on a trio of Matenro Leo, Gaia Force and Rousham Park just in case.

The End

Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. Indeed Titleholder did run away but at a slow pace of 36 seconds for the first three furlongs, which was definitely not his usual pace. As I said, the pace gave advantage to Rousham Park.

Pehaps the Titleholder crew didn't want to let the horse go full throttle since it was his first race after Tenno-sho. Or simply wanted to save the horse's energy concerning the next race, Japan Cup. Whatever the reason, I wish they'd told me before the race. If I'd known the pace to be slow, I'd have unmistakably keyed Rousham Park on the first place while the horses on the wheel must have been very much different.

Have just been lectured by Mr. N-jima that I had to buy the flip side of Titleholder, which means to key Titleholder on the 2nd place. But then, what's the use in buying trifectas? I'm trying to use the pace as a factor to narrow down candidates, though in a situation like this it makes me think of buying betting tickets assuming all paces. This would eventually lead to expanding the number of combinations which is not my intention at all.

The End

Caterpillar

6:33 p.m. There's something I realized after losing All Comer. I've always thought that it was the pace that determines the race's quality or flow should I say, to benefit certain horses. But why then, are there races run in tight (or slow) pace yet having little gap between the first and the latter half lap time? There must be something that determines the flow of the race in which certain horses are advantaged regardless of the pace.

I've recently learned that when they perform well, Harbinger descendants often bring along with them powerful horses with durable speed rather than the speed types with instantaneous speed such as Deep Impact descendants. So I was quite convinced with Titleholder finishing second, although he ran away at a relatively slow lap. But Zeffiro I thought, was a speed type Deep descendant. And Maria Elena? I believed she was also the speed type?

Rousham Park, Titleholder, Zeffiro, Maria Elena, they all shared one characteristic in common. That their speed was monotonous. They perfrom well in races that are run in averagely tight or slow laps. In other words, they don't perform well in races that suddenly paces up or shifts down especially, when the change in pace is extreme. Come to think of it, Titleholder was met by accident at the downhill around the third corner of Kyoto, just when all the horses were shifting thir gears into top.

Hmm, another lesson learned.

The End

Caterpillar

7:18 p.m. Successfully getting my tasks done although slowly. Think I deserve a compliment. Have been away from To Do lists for a while since there were far too many urgent tasks to prioritize but got back to it as my head was getting confused again.

There were 18 tasks on my list today of which I've already fifnished 7. Hopefully, I'd finish another 2 or 3 before getting in the bath and eating dinner. Pretty confident about that because at least 3 of the tasks involve Sprinters' Stakes held this weekend. Yes, it's that time of year already though it's still hot.

As you might already know, Sprinters' Stakes is one of the G1s I haven't yet won but am dying to win. It tends to be a wild race with the payouts quite big. Think I've written the same thing only a year ago.

The End

Caterpillar

7:23 p.m. While proceeding with y tasks, Namura Clair has been caught up in my mind. I've trusted her in Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen as well as Keenland Cup which is her previous race, and she's never decieved me.

At the time of Victoria Mile Cup, I was pretty sure Namura Clair wouldn't perform well as she was extending the distance from Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen in which she performed highly if not winning. Namura Clair I believe, performs better when shortening the distance. That's why I trusted her in Keenland Cup.

But this time (for Sprinters' Stakes) there's no change in distance whereas Namura Clair has run (and won) a tough race although it's already a month ago. Additionally, Sprinters' Stakes seems to have a background that it's not so friendly towards Deep Impact's descendants and in fact, there are only 2 horses that finished in the top 3 in the past 10 years Mikki Isle (Namura Clair's sire) and Gran Alegria. It's going to be a difficult decision to make.

The End

Caterpillar

6:22 p.m. It's Thursday, the entry for this season's first G1 Sprinters' Stakes has been closed and we're having a full-field race of 16 horses. Since the barrier affects the results largely, tomorrow's barrier draw release is to be waited.

Meanwhile, Namura Clair the horse of my concern has been announced to have gained 14kg since her previous run, Keenland Cup only a month ago. 14kg gain is nothing in terms of horse weight especially, when they are bound for a long-distance trasport, but what's troubling me is that she's gained weight in just 4 weeks. Keenland Cup was originally the first race for Namura Clair after a 3-months break following Victoria Mile Cup, and the horse hadn't gained weight at the time.

It depends on each horse, though generally, horses gain weight after a break to be carved down in their second or third race after their come-back when they are thought to perform best. Today the external training stables are doing their jobs well and many horses return to the turf without much loss or gain. Gaining weight after their first race back from a break especially, when they've performed too well in that first race suggests a repercussion.

The End

Caterpillar

7:06 p.m. It's Friday. It's a G1. Let's upload that barrier draw table in a while.

The center of attraction would be if Namura Clair could perform well drawing the inner-most post. Namura Clair has drawn post number 1 in a full-field race twice, both of which she didn't win. On the other hand, T M Spada drawing post number 2 and Jasper Krone drawing post number 13 are both aiming to run away while Mozu Meimei drawing the outmost post number 16 would have to take the lead in order to perform well. It could be a tough pace.

The End

Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. Drained. I've used up all my brain resources. Shoulders stiff and head feeling heavy, am not sure if I could type properly. In fact I've been tapping on my back space key far more than I ususally do while my back space mashing is a pretty familiar sight when I'm typing on the keyboard, as I've never got to master touch typing.

I've thought about the step races, the damages, the apptitude, the barrier, the track condition, besides the pedigree background. However I think, though it all seem to come down to just 3 horses, Win Marvel, Mama Cocha, and Aguri. I'm being sceptical about Namura Clair or Jasper Krone.

Perhaps I'll go for trifecta formations of Win Marvel, Mama Cocha and Aguri. I don't want to include Meikei Yell on the 3rd place, but the way she's getting favored is concerning.

The End

Caterpillar