8:09 p.m. Oh, no. Another loss. Despite the tough pace which I guessed right, Namura Clair that I've been sceptical all along has finished in 3rd place, bouncing Meikei Yell off at the last corner.

My Aguri has shown its sharpness finishing the last 3 furlongs in 33.9 seconds, but taking his position way too behind sank in 7th place. Very much disappointed not in the result but with myself and also very tired. Sometimes I wish I thought less, much less.

Have just been compensated by Mr. N-jima who won the first G1 of the season that I could still go for the Arc. Nah. I'm not in the mood.

The End

Caterpillar

7:55 p.m. Belatedly launching on my review for Sprinters' Stakes while Mr. N-jima in good spirit keeps interrupting me with messages on the coming races at local race tracks. Ding-dong! Here it comes.

The mystery is that I chose Aguri over Mad Cool. I remember thinking Mad Cool could be keyed when I heard about the horse having showed signs of fatigue from the summer heat and, that could have been the reason for his loss in CBC Stakes. But then I must have forgotten all about it.

Most of us get caught up in tiny things to be driven in the wrong direction when things aren't going well. I guess I'm in the same kind of state, getting too suspicious to end up in the wrong place. I shall write out concrete things; what I know as a fact, and what I don't. Only then will I be able to make a logical decision.

The End

Caterpillar

7:22 p.m. It's time I start on the preparation for the weekend's races, though what caught my eye was not Shuka-sho but Mainichi Ohkan.

Have been thinking if a Heart's Cry descendant was going to enter Mainichi Ohkan, that would give me a chance to win as I've finally come to realize the race features suit the characteristics of Heart's Cry descendants.

Sadly, there's no entry of a Heart's Cry descendant this year. Instead, I've spotted the name of Win Carnelian. If he could take hold of his rival Feengrotten and run away at a good clip, he would have the chance to perform well. I wouldn't dare say he has the potential to beat Schnell Meister or Songline. I'm just saying he's got the chance.

The End

Caterpillar

8:06 p.m. Have started my preparation for Shuka-sho in my spair time as I had some work to do. Telling myself not to forget that it's going to be held at Kyoto this year.

Getting right to the point, I don't think it's a good idea to go against Liberty Island. The expected win odds as of today shows Liberty Island at the top with the odds 1.4 followed by Harper's 10.6 and as you can see, it's obvious that the horse is outstanding among the competitors.

I've dared to adventure simulating the condition Liberty Island could lose since the forecast is predicting some rain about the time of the race, but Liberty Island doesn't seem to have a blind spot. If I'm forced to say it, there might be a slight possibiliy that she could perform poorly involving the shortening of distance.

The End

Caterpillar

7:09 p.m. Have done another huge blunder. Because horseracing sites have been anxiously previewing Shuka-sho, I thought it was coming up this weekend. Of course not. It's next weekend, the 15th. What a false start!

This means I need to focus on Mainichi Ohkan (and Kyoto Dai-shoten). Well for Mainichi Ohkan, I already have the big picture. Just not sure if Songline, Schnell Meister, or Justin Cafe would perform their best.

Must also look into Feengrotten as he's had a big loss in his previous race. He would need to either have to run away or stay behind to drag this into a power race to make the best out of his potential. The smaller field compared to Tanabata-sho is an advantage as well as the rain which is predicted to fall on Sunday.

Huh? Just double-checked the forecast and it says it won't rain on Sunday.

The End

Caterpillar

7:04 p.m. Okay. So I should renew my perception of the weather. No rain on Sunday, right. Meanwhile the barriers have been drawn.

Aw, Schnell Meister has drawn post number 1! Didn't he draw the same post when he won Mainichi Ohkan in 2021? And the rider was Christophe, the same as this year. The only difference is the weight he carries which has increased 2kg from 56 to 58. Don't think that matters much, though.

Songline has drawn an outer post number 10, which might or might not affect her performance. Feengrotten drew post number 11. Well, Feengrotten could be in a tight spot regardless of the post since he doesn't seem to have the sprint speed he needs to take the lead against Win Carnelian. Neither does Babbitt I'm afraid, so that leaves Win Carnelian to run away.

It's the opening week for Tokyo and the turf must be in great condition without bias. With the odds-on favorites staying in the back, there may be a chance for a runaway.

The End

Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. Ah, but then I just remembered Win Carnelian doesn't usually perform well after a long break and he's just been back from a 4-months' recess. Besides, there's no guarantee that he could take the lead. Am ditching this idea although reluctantly.

Considering the fast track condition, Schnell Meister, Justin Cafe and Songline all have the chance to win. Now that's a nuisance. As I dug into the past race results of each horse, I realized that Schnell Meister has never beaten Songline after NHK Mile Cup when he won.

Decided to put my faith on Songline to key her on the first place of trifectas. Schnell Meister, Eeyan, Justin Cafe on the second, Schnell Meister, Eeyan, Justin Cafe, and Feengrotten on the third. Have wrung my brains but couldn't come up with anything more.

The End

Caterpillar

6:26 p.m. And it's Elton Barows!

There were several front runners, so I thought maybe Win Carnelian won't run away? Even if he did, perhaps the pace could be too slow? I was happy that I had foreseen this and decided to give up on Win Carnelian this time because he was also coming off a break. However, the race turned out to be too slow and only the horses starting from inner posts were able to take over the horses ahead.

Thanks to this, Schnell Meister got walled by others despite the small-field race, and had to run to the outside. A huge distance loss, here. Songline wasn't as diadvantaged as Schnell Meister, but I think she also was a bit too late. Perhaps Songline got stuck in the field and couldn't move in that pace. Since Win Carnelian took the lead at a half-hearted pace, it turned out to be a mediocre race in which Wynn Carnelian himself couldn't finish in the top 3.

Forgive me for using Deep L, I'm in a bxxtch hurry to finish everything before our big match against Argentina starts!

The End

Caterpillar

7:10 p.m. We've lost the rugby match against Argentina, lost Mainichi Ohkan, rain started falling and the temperature has suddenly dropped to that of annual November. Feels like I'm on the wrong side of everything I could think of. It was only a week ago when the high hit 29.9 degrees, you know? Cut me some slack, won't you?

Kyoto Dai-shoten held today ended up with Deep Bond losing in 3rd place while the 2nd favored Blow the Horn retired from AF. Weight loss after a two-months' recess following a succession of high performances reminds me of just one word, overwork. Blow the Horn is still 4 years old. Hope for his recovery and come back.

Haven't had the time nor energy (nor motivation)lately, to review the lost races thoroughly. It's not my intention to dive into Shuka-sho in such a state but am not sure what to do. Perhaps I need some refreshment?

The End

Caterpillar

8:02 p.m. Mr. N-jima keeps pestering me with messages at one time complaining about jockey comments from yesterday's Kyoto Dai-shoten, at another time seeking for ideas for the coming Shuka-sho.

I've been kept busy with my usual chores while attending the old guy via messenger app until finally got to take a look at the past 10 years' results of Shuka-sho. And just because I've been reading Kiss My Math, I've suddenly decided to visualize what I know (as a fact) about Shuka-sho and what I don't. That shall help me keep the distance from uncertainties by which I often get driven with anxiety as the race grows nearer.

These are what I've noticed so far.

The End

Caterpillar

8:02 p.m. Checking out the weather forecast for Sunday. Cloudy with 40% chance of rain. Hmmm... what should I make of this? Perhaps power type horses with American background will have the advantage if it rains as much to soften the track?

I'm not sure of anything yet especially, when the entry hasn't been even closed. All I know is that Liberty Island has finished her last worlout before the race without incident. She was said to have gained quite a lot though the trainer said she's been carved down to about 490kg.

Comparing to her weight when she won the Oaks which was 466kg, nonetheless that's a 24kg gain. It's natural to think Liberty Island hasn't been tuned up completely considering her next race, possibly Japan Cup. Additionally, the horse is quite sensitive that her partner Yuga made an unusual announcement to the fans to be quiet before the start. And she's currently the odds-on favorite with her win odds 1.5. So freaky.

Guess I'd put Liberty on all places 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

The End

Caterpillar

7:03 p.m. Well, Namur has gained about 20kg and still finished second last year as I recall it, so Liberty Island's weight gain may be nothing. That doesn't automatically wipe away the risk of her start, though.

As I've been scanning through the 18 horses that have been approved today to run Shuka-sho, I got stuck at Dura who has won Queen Stakes this summer in her previous race. Hmm, what to make of her? I sent a quick message to Mr. N-jima who boasts Dura as one of his horses. I've been replying to his message attacks, it's time he paid me back. A simple give and take.

The old guy replied in a matter of minutes saying Dura probaly won't perform well though he would keep her on the third place (of trifectas). Instead, he pushed 3 Kitasan Black descendants Kona Coast, Hip Hop Soul, and Ravel. Hip Hop Soul, I agree but Ravel? Let's just keep these three in mind.

The End

Caterpillar

6:29 p.m. Earlier in the afternoon, I've been rushed off by Mr. N-jima to check out if the barreier draw had already been announced. The old guy has an iPhone and still makes me do this, humph. What's the iPhone for?

Okay. Liberty Island has an ideal post so the winner's seat is already taken. If she loses, the reason is not the barrier. Haper has drawn a difficult inner post. Christophe would have to keep her all the way behind in order to avoid getting stuck in the field though that might turn out to be a blessing.

The End

Caterpillar

9:29 p.m. Exhausted as usual. Also having a sense of futility. You know what I mean?

No matter how hard I think, how hard I struggle, it's in vain. There's nothing that could stop Liberty Island except for one. A situation when she gets stuck in the field that she gets left behind for the last sprint. Even in such a situation, I don't feel like she's going to lose so big.

If the predicted rain softened the track, I might have put my hopes on Harper but that hope seems to be gone too. Will key Liberty Island on the 1st of exactas and buy Harper, Kona Coast and Hip Hop Soul for now. My trifecta's first row would probably be Harper, Liberty, Kona Coast, 2nd row Harper, Kona Coast, maybe add Doe Eyes, Conch Shell, Hip Hop Soul, Pipiola to the former three for the 3rd row.

The End

Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. Got up and checked the track condition first thing and it turns out to be soft. This was far from what I've been told by Japan's most trustworthy weather forecast. The track condition recovered to good to firm in the afternoon, but I had to come up with a plan B for soft tracks in a rush.

Had checked out before going to sleep yesterday about Queen Stakes winners, that there was one that finished in 3rd place when Apapane had won her third crown, so I decided to add Dura on the 3rd place of my trifectas while expanding my exactas to all horses on my wheel. I even bought Ravel in the mad rush. By this time I was confident Liberty Island would win.

But then, the pace got too slow to allow the pursuit of Masked Diva. I didn't need you, darn!

So once again I'm back in the first, third, fourth place disease.

The End

Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. Feeling embarrassed and miserable having been compensated by the old guy saying, that the autumn G1 series have only just started. Think I've heard the same words< last year though merely won Arima Kinen./p>

So I tried to remember the thinking process I took when I won Arima Kinen and it made me realize that I'd done almost exactly the opposite last week. No wonder I lost Shuka-sho.

Will check my process once again to be fully sure, and then prepare for Kikka-sho in the process that I've won Arima Kinen. That shall at least get me closer to winning. Better pep up since we're going down to the off-track betting this week.

The End

Caterpillar

5:43 p.m. Am starting early today as I have a zoom meeting with a friend after this.

As mentioned yesterday, have reviewed my process of calling races to rearrange the order of the whole process and made a list of things to do before Kikka-sho. On the top of the list is review my past notes on Kikka-sho. The last time Kika-sho had been run on Kyoto turf was 2020, so I'm pulling up the notes from year 2020 on the screen.

It says, "If you choose the horses that are fresh to G1 and have instantaneous speed, basically you won't be far off the mark for Kikka-sho." Wow. How informative and helpful that'd be. It also goes on, "Rarely when the pace gets titght, it becomes a wild race and the payout, huge."

Again, how specifically informative and helpful!

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Caterpillar

7:34 p.m. Diligently having my work done while being interfered with messages and calls. Have managed to check out the previous races of the Kikka-sho entrees.

Not so sure about Centlight Kinen. Personally, I'm hoping that Sol Oriens won't do a blunder this time but you never know until the race runs. His broodmare sire suggests the horse has got enough stamina to run 3000m however, it would probably best if he draws an outward post so as not to get blocked. And if the pace gets tight (and there's a good chance it will since there are multiple front runners entered), I might have to think the possibility of Win Odin.

From Kobe Shinbun-hai which 8 horses are entered, I've crossed out most of it with 3 remaining, Satono Glanz, Savona, and Heart's Concerto. On a second thought I might keep Shonan Bashitto yet, and also might choose Savona over Satono Glanz.

The End

Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. Had a late luch past three, and then checked the barrier draw to send it to Mr. N-jima because I thought he might be getting antsy.

So. Sol Oriens has drawn an outer post. Think that's good for the horse though the past results aren't so friendly. The one to feel sorry for is Durezza, more than Sol Oriens. The outmost post is good for the horse in a way that he won't get stuck in the field, but the distance loss he'd have to face is ruthless.

The End

Caterpillar

9:24 p.m. Have been running around all day going out shopping, cleaning, cooking, preparing for work, reacting to occasional? no, frequent messages in between these tasks. And it turns out that we're not going to the regular off-track betting, but going to Kawasaki race tracks instead. It doesn't matter much, anyway.

Multi-tasking is another thing I'm terrible at, though have managed to cross out 5 from my list of preparations for Kikka-sho. Have worked hard. Have grouped the horses according to their previous races and narrowed down the candidates to 4 possibly 5, not to mention Sol Oriens remaining.

Still have 4 more tasks to cross out on my preparation list including listing up the potential horses pace-wise, should I say? Am glad that I have another day well, half a day if I take in account finishing up the cleaning. Hopefully, shall be able to make it in time to announce my call tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

9:10 p.m. Sorry about yesterday, I was so tired and consumed that it seems like I've given Cow the wrong files.

I've worked down my list and as usual have pondered my options. But I just can't imagine some dark horse beating Sol Oriens. The horse admittingly has a short career though he's never lost in 3rd place let alone 4th or below. He's only run 5 races but have finished either 1st or 2nd in all of them, with two of them being G1.

If there's any horse that could beat Sol Oriens, I'd say it would be Durezza though the outmost post is a disadvantage. Thus, will have to key Sol Oriens with Durezza on exactas and trifectas. I would keep Tastiera on the wheel of course, with Top Knife, Season Rich, Satono Glanz, and maybe, just maybe Libyan Glass.

The End

Caterpillar

6:43 p.m. It felt like a looooong time since I won the last time. Queen Stakes in August as I recall it. And the time finally came for me to win an exacta, thank Lord.

Bought trifectas, too but spared only a small share of my budget as I was going mainly for the exactas. After all, thought it was going to be a match between the top 2 horses that have performed well in both Satsuki-sho and D'erby plus one, the easy winner of an older horses' stakes race.

Cow and I took a detour to Mr. N-jima's turf Kawasaki as mentioned, and the old guy has treated us to a Yakiniku dinner. Can't tell you how good it tasted after winning!

The End

Caterpillar

7:02 p.m. Now that I've won Kikka-sho, it's been proven that I'd been calling races in the wrong order of process. And it took me such a long time since I went into a slump during the spring classics up until now just to realize that I was doing everything in the wrong order.

It Surely did take long. Well at least I've learned from this expereience that it takes me months-term time to realize what I'm doing wong when things aren't going well. Better keep that in mind. You see, I'm the type of person who become unable to think about anything else when I'm engaged in something. This won't be the case for most of you, I reckon.

Looks like I'm back on track, let's get the ball rolling for two wins in a row. Today's achievement for my preparation shows that horses running in G1 races previously perform outstandingly better in Tenno-sho (fall). 17 out of 30 in the past 10 years fall into this category, while the latest 4 years are even more overwhelming with 11 out of 12 horses running G1 in their previous races.

The End

Caterpillar

7:31 p.m. Probing further into high performers with their parevious races being G1. 6 horses from Takaraduka Kinen have performed well in Tennno-sho (fall) in the past 10 years, which seems the best performance among the G1 group.

In fact, horses from Takaraduka Kinen have finished one, two, three in year 2017 however, this was the year when the track was muddy like a rice field. I'm assuming that the race demanded more power and stamina than the annual Tennno-sho, shifting itself closer to Takaraduka Kinen. So perhaps I should take 2017 as an exception.

4 horses have done well from Yasuda Kinen with two of them being Almond Eye, while only 1 horse has performed highly from Osaka-hai which was Contrail.

Summing this up, I won't be able to ignore Equinox however favored he would be. Justin Palace is also from Takaraduka Kinen so must give him a good pondering.

The End

Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. As Tennno-sho's barrier draw is announced on Thursday just like the classic races, here we are with the barrier draw.

It's a pity that it's become such a small-field race. There probably wouldn't be much advantage or disadvantage concerning the barrier draw. Still I think it was good for Do Deuce to have drawn an inner post in order to keep his cool. I'm not sure but Iwata senior might push to take the lead since North Bridge has drwn the inner-most post.

The End

Caterpillar

8:32 p.m. At one time this afternoon the TV forecast mentions a chance of thunderstorm Sunday morning, later on in the evening weather forecasting site tells Sunday morning is cloudy. I wish I knew which it was, really. It largely affects my call, you know?

Have been pondering about Tenno-sho while getting today's tasks done. And I still think Equinox is the most probable of performing well if not for winning. Last year's performance was outstanding and if he's drawn the same post there's a high chance the horse would perform as well again though some things do differ from last year, such as the number of horses entered or his previous race.

I'm rather suspicious about Do Deuce at this point. I still remember wondering why Do Deuce had lost against Ask Victor More in Yayoi-sho and it was a small-field race at a slow lap. Of course things are different from then just like in Equinox's case. Nor am I sayig that Do Deuce would vanish from top 3. It's just that I feel a twinge of suspicion, that's all.

The End

Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. Have proposed Mr. N-jima to go down to the off-track betting this week, but he wanted to come to our place instead so I had to do the cleaning today. But well, have worked hard since yesterday and was able to even make some time for the preparations for my Monday client.

As for Tenno-sho, I just can't think of Equinox losing big. Yes, I understand it's his first race after Takaraduka, I understand he'd been beaten by Do Deuce in D'erby. Nevertheless I can't imagine the horse sinking below 4th place. Rather, I think he's going to win the Tenno-sho 2 yars in a row. Were there any other horse that have won it 2 years in a row? Almond Eye, perhaps?

Because it worked out last week, will buy exactas of Equinox, Prognosis and Do Deuce first. Then will put a little on trifectas keying Equinox and Prognosis. With Do Deuce, Danon Beluga, Gaia Force, Jusstin Palace, and Jack d'Or on the third place. Will skip tomorrow as the old guy would be visiting.

The End

Caterpillar

6:58 p.m. It was close! If I'd only bought Justin Palace on the 2nd place of my trifectas! Or if only Justin Palace didn't perform that well to sink in 4th place, that would have been accepetable since I had the trifecta od Equinox, Prognosis, and Danon Beluga.

But then, Jack d'Or has led the field in 57.7 seconds for the first half while Equinox replaced him for the last half and didn't give others a split second to take a break. I'd thought Justin Palace has the chance to perform well if the pace got tight however, it seemed to have fallen out of my mind and just didn't link to the betting tickets. I also had a bit of concern about the barrier Prognosis had drawn because it was an outward post and that could become a disadvantage when th pace lagged, though I dismissed the idea as it was a small-field race and thought otherwise that it would n't make such a big difference.

After all it DID make a big difference. Two wins in a row vanished into thin air.

The End

Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. There are a couple more things I'd like to check concerning Tenno-sho, but the reviewing is mostly over. Yet it's hard to wash away the sensational performance of Equinox and my mind keeps leaping to Japan Cup where he will be racing against Liberty Island.

I wasn't very fond of Liberty Island at first, though when I heard that there's a chance she might run Japan Cup, I decided she'd be the first to finish. The reason is because of Liberty Island's freshness added with her light carrying weight. There's no need to refer to the deadheat of Orfevre and Gentil Donna or Almond Eye to remind you how 3-year-old fillies are so advantaged in terms of carrying weight when it comes to Japan Cup, I reckon.

But the freshness that it would be their first experience to race against male horses, let alone older horses could also be a huge advantage. I thought this would be true for Liberty Island too, though after I've seen how Equinox can structure the race any way he wants to in Tenno-sho (fall), will have to admit I have some doubts now. Liberty Island would definitely need a good pacemaker, at least.

The End

Caterpillar