8:24 p.m. As usual, am very tired after work but have decided to call CBC-sho, not Nikkei-sho. Both races are likwly to become monotonous, though I thought it would be better to go for CBC as there were multiple horses that could take the lead and the pace uncertain.

My concern is on the track condition of Chukyo. I assumed earlier this week that the track will be firm and fast because it's the opening week for Chukyo. Now the situation might have changed with this rain. Chukyo races today has been held on soft track and although the forecast tells it'd clear up tomorrow, I'm not sure if the course recovers to what I'd guessed it would be like.

Nevertheless, I think Mad Cool is (more than) a step ahead of the others. So am keying him with Yoshino Easter and Jasper Krone on quinella, while fixing him on the first place of trifectas. A 1-2-4 formation of triectas with Yoshino Easter, Jasper Krone on the 2nd row, A Shin Spotter, Smart Courage with Yoshino and Jasper on the 3rd row will be my bet tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. I did feel suspicious when I saw Mad Cool had gained weight althoug slightly. And I've been calling the horse Mac d'Or all along instead of Mad Cool, you know.

Judging from the result, his previous race has left too much damage on the horse and the top weight he carried delivered the final blow. If not so, the horse wouldn't have lost this big. Meanwhile, Jasper Krone took the lead to run away just as expected and finished in first place. Well, didn't expect him to win but as the race is monotonous he had the chance to if he was able to take the lead. The track condition also cashed in on Jasper Krone.

And so my loser life goes on. Am trying not to count the losses but am getting tired of it. Hope it ends some time soon.

The End

Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. This week we're having Tanabata-sho at Fukushima, one of the races I've never won before. Yeah, Tanabata-sho has once again come around. It's that season. Well, as I've never succeeded in winning, think I'll start from trying to figure out the course condition looking at the results of Radio Nikkei-sho.

The pace was average and considering the distance, the race became rather monotonous meaning that fornt runners were benefitted. Given that Lebensstil's perfomance was outstanding, I shall say. The top 6 winners of this race were all front runners except for Lebensstil. Granite and Lebensstil both must have been tired reflecting their spring race careers.

The point is these top 6 finishers all ran along the inner rail. Since it was the opening week for Fukushima, the track condition is quite fine. Therefore, horses taking the outer course had to bear the distance loss. Now let me go check whether this trend is applied to the past Radio Nikkei-sho. Perhaps it even might be seen in Tanabata-sho, too.

The End

Caterpillar

8:10 p.m. A bit late. Well, I've been checking out the past 10 years' results of Tanabata-sho. I've checked each and every year, but they all seem to back-up my theory that horses that were able to take their positions along the rail performed better, regardless of the pace or track condition.

This is also what happened in last week's Radio Nikkei-sho. Lebensstil was kind of locked up in between Omega Rich Man and Meiner Mond, so if Keita Tosaki had positioned the horse a bit more up front without being stuck between horses say, right behind Corepetiteur, Balsam Note, and Emanuele, perhaps the result might have been different.

The problem is however, you never know which horses could take the inner course positions until the race is actually run. That is, except for the horse taking the lead. That would be hard to guess at this point as there are multiple horses having the potential to take the lead, Sifflement, Shonan Magma, Seiun Hades, and Feengrotten.

The End

Caterpillar

8:20 p.m. I was going to go out for exercise but then it started raining. So I gave it up and stayed home trying to remove corns from my left middle finger and my left toe though it seems I've failed. I think I could still see the core left.

After that I had to keep company while stupid Cow ordered some items from a shopping catalog. It took 2 hours and by the time the confirmation mail was received, I was quite tired. So I decided to pick up from where I left yesterday, rather than lauching on a new search.

On the premise that horses taking their positions along the rail would be advantaged, I'm guessing that the lucky post numbers are 2,4,6, and 8. Of course, not all horses perform well just because they've drawn the lucky posts, but it could have the effect of a push-in-the back.

Another thing I realized today is that when the most favored horse is a trailer, the pace tends to lag to an average. Otherwise, the position battle gets fierce (especially with multiple front runners) and the pace tends to get tight. Informative, aren't I , huh?

The End

Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. It's Thursday and the entry has been closed. 16 horses are running this year's Tanabata-sho dropping a hint to a big pay-out.

Still not certain about the pace until the barriers are drawn, but taking into consideration what I've mentioned yesterday, it's likely to become a tight-lapped race since Feengrotten, currently the most favored in expected win odds is a front-runner. Also there are several more front runners including the third favored Seiun Hades, which makes it more credible.

Have picked up a couple of trends from Tanabata-sho that were held with 16 horses on firm track in the past 10 years, though I can't write all of them so will give you just a few. One is that older horses such as 7-years old or 8-years old performed well in 2 of the 3 sample races I studied. If conditions meet those of such older horses, they might become the messenger of a huge pay-out. Another thing is that in order to perform well in a full-field tight lap Tanabata-sho on firm turf, high aptitude for speed track is a must.

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Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. Okay, the barrier draw is released. Netkeiba is suggesting an average pace and I can understand that with the potential leaders clustered in the outer posts. But well, I think I'll stick to my guess of a tight pace. I mean, I haven't forgotten Takaraduka Kinen when Hideaki Miyuki was looking in the direction of Ryusei Sakai to see if Unicorn Lion was keen to go while he didn't quite hold down Dura Erede.

When I set the pace as tight, the horses drawing inner posts that dislikes to be jammed will be advantaged, as well as horses that could stay along the rail while pushing up their positions to the last corner. Usually in a tight lap, trailers sweeping from the outside would be advantaged, though not this time since the track is fast and firm. So if you're thinking of outer post starters, perhaps you should go for front runners only.

No, wait. I haven't checked the weather yet. Must do that. And then, let me see what type of horses could perform well in a full-field Fukushima 2000m which furlong records can be quite unique.

The End

Caterpillar

8:15 p.m. I'm tired, sleepy, it's hot and humid. What, is this some kind of new torture or something making me call Tanabata-sho in this inhumanly pleasant environment?

Haven't had the time to check the furlong records since my client didn't send his report that I had to check by Thursday night when he usually does. Instead he sent it last night when the meeting was this afternoon. Thanks a lot.

As already mentioned, my head is not in a state to comprehend nor assume such a complex race as Tanabata-sho, so I'm betting my luck on the along-the-rail theory and key Kukuna on a wheel of Echt, Curren LucielBleu, Feengrotten, Hindu Times, and Seiun Hades. Am gonna be modest and stick to quiinellas.

The End

Caterpillar

7:03 p.m. Because Feengrotten suddenly decided to stay behind, the pace didn't get tight. Though I called the race right and Kukuna finished second while Seiun Hades won. But now I have to face the sad truth that I didn't buy these tickets, I bought different ones...

Can't believe myself. Really, how many times do I have to repeat this process of calling races right and then buying different betting tickets on the day of the race? How could I be so stupid? Or is this not a matter of my own stupidity? How can I stop this? Darn!

Well, the brighter side of this is that my stick-to-the-rail theory proved to be true and that I could make use of this theory once again next year. After all, it's Tanabata-sho. Try again next year, eh?

The End

Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. Have given up my daily exercise to stay home, review my stupid actions, think about solutions and get depressed again. The temperature outside has gone over 35 degrees today even in the central parts of Tokyo. Who would want to go out on a day like that anyway?

Checked JRA site to discover that the advanced betting tickets won't be able to buy after 19:30. I meant the Internet betting system, you know? And they're not selling 24/7! There's no way I could finish calling the race by that time, so I decided to stay away not only from the heat but also from horse racing after I've announced my call. Will try not to think about horse racing until Sunday afternoon when I actually buy betting tickets.

In order to make this practicable, I need something to focus on instead, something that would keep my attention away from horse racing. Jogging, maybe? In this heat? Nah.

The End

Caterpillar

5:15 p.m. Starting early. One shouldn't go out in 35 degrees heat.

Have done some research and learned that the stick-to-the-rail method could be applied to Hakodate Kinen, too. Unless the race lap gets tight, horses starting from outer posts are unnecessary except for front runners. When it becomes a tight-lapped race, you might consider horses raising their positions.

I came to think horses that make the summer races go wild could be the ones that haven't been running that particular distance for a while. I've seen several cases (including last week's Kukuna) like that, so might as well keep that in mind.

Am getting sleepy, thanks to the air conditioner. Maybe it's time for a break. Whoever envented this great machine definitely should be awarded, by the way.

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Caterpillar

5:18 p.m. Again, starting early as I have a zoom meeting with a friend later. I'd like to compliment myself on starting early for consecutive days despite all the interruptions I had including the motorcycle bliiping in the neighborhood that started around a quarter to six in the morning.

Another thing I learned from the past 10 years of Hakodate Kinen results is that most horses finishing in top 3 ran in grade races previously. In fact, 22 out of 30 were from grade races, while while 7 (6 of them from Tomoe-sho, and 1 from Miyako Oji Stakes) were from open class races. There was only one horse that performed well after running a 3-win class. This must be bad news for Rousham Park who is currently the most favored in expected win odds. Sorry, Christophe.

Also, horses that came from Tomoe-sho had all finished below 3rd place in Tomoe-sho. Now that leaves question marks for Arata and Dobune, the 2nd and 3rd favored. After all, Hakodate Kinen is known to go wild next to Tanabata-sho.

I won't be betting on tonight's Japan Dirt D'erby like my pal Mr. N-jima since I have a meeting but if I were to buy, I'd put everything into an exacta of Yuttitham (first) and Mick Fire (second). Maybe you should go for the quinella to be on the safe side though, if there's any horse to beat Mick Fire, it'd be Yuttitham.

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Caterpillar

6:58 p.m. Later than yesterday but starting around the usual time. Nothing much going on except that the entries have been closed for the weekend races.

Thankfully though, my client has sent in his report earlier this week so I wouldn't have to be in such a mad rush tomorrow. But then, something always pops up and drives me mad.

Mr. N-jima seemed to have won exactas and trifectas for Japan Dirt D'erby since my phone received a boasting message. He picked on me that I'd let the chance get away but well, I wouldn't have won anyway since my bet would have been on Mick Fire and Yuttitham. That's why I let the race pass because I thought I won't win. I think that's a bit different from letting the chance get away. My chance lays ahead, on Sunday.

The End

Caterpillar

5:22 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and netkeiba.com is predicting Hakodate Kinen's pace to be slow. How? How could it be slow? I mean, it's a full-field race on a local course with tight turns, there are multiple front runners like Unicorn Lion, Dobune, T O Sirius, or even Al Naseem. How could one guess the pace to be slow? What, did they ask the horses?

I'd say it'd be a tight pace or average at worst. Wait. Perhaps Unicorn Lion is thought to let Dobune or T O Sirius take the lead. Yutaka Dobune probably wouldn't want to take the lead if they don't have to, but if T O Sirius drawing the outer post dawdles to take the lead, they might go to take control over the race. In that case, the pace could drop to a slow. It's a matter of possibility I guess.

Things are getting complicated here. My conclusions will be different depending on the pace, so I got to be careful, very careful. Will have to gather more information to make up my mind but I don't have time now. Later.

The End

Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. I've tried. Have worked hard to perform the as best as I could. But this is almost impossible! The track condition is unstable, the pace is uncertain because there are multiple horses that might or might not take the lead, it's a full-field race and it's handicapped!

How is one supposed to call such a race? The risk is obviously higher than the chance of winning, it's not fair! Yet there aren't any other races I could challenge instead. So I'm calling Hakodate Kinen unwillingly while tears are streaming down my cheeks.

Will key Yamanin Salvum in hopes that the pace would become tight. On the wheel would be Unicorn Lion, Dobune, Meiner Virtus, T O Sirius, and King of Dragon. Quinellas, to keep modest. And from now on until tomorrow morning, I'm not going to think anything, anything about Hakodate Kinen until I get up and buy betting tickets first thing tomorrow morning, before I check the track condition or the weight gains and losses.

The End

Caterpillar

7:18 p.m. Nothing to say as I wasn't even close. I enjoyed the race until 1800m, though. Kazuo Yokoyama has ridden Yamanin Salvum well, I think. I'd rather trust older Yokoyama than the younger I mean, look what's happened to the 3rd favored Arata (and Efforia or Ask Victor More or Namur).

One thing, and the only one thing that was good today was that I was able to refrain myself from changing my call to buy different betting tickets. I learned I could do that if I tried and surprisingly, it made me feel much better. My Saturday night and Sunday morning has been released from stress and even after I lost the race, I felt much better than before. Perhaps I was able to be "responsible of my own actions" in Adler's words.

Since I felt like I was being able to control myself, I think I'll keep this style for a while. It feels so healthy despite my neglect to do some exercise.

The End

Caterpillar

5:48 p.m. This week it's Chukyo Kinen, held on Chukyo mile for the first time in a couple of years, I believe. The past 2 years (or so) it's been held at Kokura I think, which wasn't actually a Chukyo Kinen at all.

I have a feeling that I could do better this week since Chukyo mile is much more assumable (at least for me) than the last week Hakodate 2000m on an unstable track condition unless the weather changes by this weekend. Chukyo mile tends to be run on lagged pace, often turning out to be an instantaneous speed contest. The key to winning is probably whether you could figure out which part of the course (outer or inner) benefits the potential horses as well as figuring out the more advantaged horses in their carrying weight.

Gotta finish this up because I want to check on the rsults of Hakodate Kinen. If what I'm thinking is right, maybe I could get closer to winning it or even win it next year.

The End

Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. Had to go out so am having a late start today.

Have cheked the track condition of last week's Chukyo turf. Looks like it's still in a relatively good condition and as far as it doesn't rain, the track may stay firm and fast judging from the finishing record of last week's races.

The damaged inner parts of the turf is mostly avoided by the movable fence set last week, but as it's going to be the last week of Chukyo races this summer, there may be scenes for horses staying in the back to sweep up the rest when the pace gets tight.

However, personally I'm thinking such things couldn't happen because I'm guessing that the pace won't be that tight.

The End

Caterpillar

7:23 p.m. It's already been said here and there but the performance of 4-year-olds in Chukyo Kinen seems poor, poor indeed. Including the recent 3 years while the race has been run at Kokura and Hanshin respectively, there were only 4 times when 4-year-olds finished within 3rd place in the past 10 years.

Additionally, these 4-year-olds all finished in 3rd place, not 2nd or 1st. Generally speaking, 4-year-olds have the advantage of their youth and they're thought to be more fresh and powerful compared to older horses. In fact, 4-year-olds perform well in most of the other grade races.

Chukyo Kinen, though seems to be an exception. A rare exception I should say. I don't know the reason why. Perhaps the younger horses' mile race schedule might have something to do with it but I'm not sure. Just to raise an alert since the current most favored in expected win odds happened to be Rouge Stiria, a 4-year-old.

The End

Caterpillar

6:48 p.m. Have signed out at the library and been reading a book on math. I've never been good at math so I thought the book could give me a chance to overwrite the bad impression against the subject in which it succeeded.

Just happened to download some math problems used in a prestigeous high school's entry exam and the overexcited me, has dared to challenge solving these problems to end up completely defeated. What a fool.

Meanwhile the entry for Chukyo Kinen has been closed and I crossed 4 horses out already as they don't seem to stand a chance, even if they drew barriers of their preferances where they could perform best. 16 horsess running, 4 down leaves 12.

The End

Caterpillar

6:50 p.m. Had a little credit card trouble which I've already taken care of. The barrier draw for Chukyo Kinen has been announced while I was taking care of that.

I'm not sure which horse is going to take the lead, Anagosan, Selberg, or Ho O Amazon, but I'm setting the pace average. Given that, it won't be easy for horses staying in the back like Divina to sweep up the outside unless the horse takes a shortcut though that too, would be difficult on a course like Chukyo.

The advantage is on the front runners' side although there are many. My take is that it would be better even for a front runner to have instantaneous speed especially if the pace is average or slow. I don't think Shuri or Admire Virgo has enough instantaneous speed to beat the others and Variamente has just come back from a long break with a question mark onits condition. Cross out post numbers 1 to 3, 3 more down leaving 9 standing.

The End

Caterpillar

8:34 p.m. It seemed Chukyo mile would be much easier to assume compared to Hakodate, but it turns out there wasn't much difference. I mean I know (or I think I know) where to head for though I can't quite figure out which horse could meet the conditions I've listed up.

The results of today's Chukyo turf races seemed to suggest the need of complement in power and stamina. For example, Duramente descendants were performing well as well as horses shortening the distance. I crossed out Variente yesterday because I wasn't sure of his condition, but having seen today's results decided otherwise.

I'm really not sure which horse to key however, made up my mind to test my luck on Ho O Amazon (and Ryusei Sakai). On the wheel would be Variamente, Anagosan, Divina, Danon Scorpion, and Bejart, quinellas to keep modest.

The End

Caterpillar

7:32 p.m. Frankly speaking, I wished Ho O Amazon to take the lead instead of Selberg. The rider might have had that in mind, but the horse didn't have the speed it once had.

I hate to have to admit it since Ho O Amazon has made me happy before though perhaps he may be getting tired of racing. Same thing goes for Danon Scorpion, I'm afraid. Once a horse gets tired of racing, there's not much you could do but to wave good-bye. Sigh.

The pace was also faster than I'd expected. This sort of cashed in on Divina and Rouge Stiria. What a sad day. It's always sad when I have to give up on horses that once helped me win. And my results haven't improved an inch. So sad.

The End

Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. Still sad but the past is in the past, you can't do anything about it so let's quit lamenting and look ahead. This week I'm gracefully letting Ibis Summer Dash through because it's no fun with the outer post drawers favored as always. Am focuing on Queen Stakes at Sapporo.

Looking at the past 10 years ' results, it's almost obvious that inner post starters have the advantage. Outer post starters need to either go up front or have great instantaneous speed to overtake others. The track condition is good for now and the winning record is expected to be 1 minute 47.something seconds or even faster. Meaning, it's better to have fast records.

I don't see a specific trend in the pace and I think it's going to be hard to guess, too. So I'm thinking of either not guessing the pace at all or choose horses simultaing all cases when the pace became tough, average and slow. Need to make up my mind by Friday.

The End

Caterpillar

7:43 p.m. Comparing the furlong records between each year avoiding the year when Queen Stakes was run on Hakodate turf, not Sapporo.

After converting the furlong records into line graphs, it was easier to see that this particular race is not one of those roller-coaster races but rather a monotonous race that tests sustaining power and speed endurance.

Another thing I recognized is that there are multiple names of good milers among high-performers in the past 10 years, such as I'm Yours, Red Reveur, Aerolithe, Soul Stirling, Beach Samba, or Terzetto. Perhaps it might be a good place to start, milers.

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Caterpillar

6:56 p.m. Unfortunately, though there doesn't seem to be any good milers entered this year. Tsk! So I've gone to explore the pedigree background.

Apparently, Deep Impact descendants are holding sway over the past couple of years including 2021 when the race was held at Hakodate. But that doesn't automatically mean the course is firm and fast which is the tricky part of Queen Stakes. The fast finishing records are not the results of the speed track, but rather of consecutively clocked averagely fast furlong time. This, I already mentioned yesterday. The monotonous flow of the race is a consequence of averagely fast furlong time.

As I also mentioned yesterday, sustaining power and speed endurance is necessary in Queen Stakes which seems to be backed up by the pedigree. Most of the high-performing Deep Impact descendants have Nearctic line in their broodmare sire. As you might already know, the Nearctic line is famous for its speed and power.

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Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. It's a Thursday and the entries have been closed for the weekend. Queen Stakes will be run with 14 horses this year.

Considering the pedigree background I've written about yesterday, the potential candidates could be horses like Grand Slamm Ask, Satono Cecil, Tosen Laurier, Dura, or Bijin, though they need to be looked into further.

Still undecided about the pace setting simulation. Following last week (and the week before) there are multiple horses that might or might not take the lead which is making it harder for me to assume the pace. Anyway, will wait until the barrier draw tomorrow.

Shall be going now as I'm getting quite sleepy. Google Fit says I've consumed almost 1300 Cal (did you know that cal starting with a large C actually meant kcal?) today and I deserve a nice hot bath, good meal and a good night's rest.

The End

Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. Taking a look at Queen Stakes' racing form with the post numbers on. I don't know who made this decision but Costa Bonita is supposed to take the lead though she's never taken the lead in her career, not even once, while Win Pyxis and Grand Slam Ask are also thought to take the lead.

If this assumption turns out to be true, then the first half of the race should flash by in a murderously tight pace however, the pace is guessed to be average. What an interesting assumption. In my humble opinion, I think the battle would be between Win Pyxis and Grand Slam Ask unless there's a special piece of information I don't know that Costa Bonita is going to take the lead.

Well, if the race flows at an average pace as this racing form suggests, then the front runners and inner post drawers would have the advantage. Situation seems tough for horses staying in the back like Dura, Kita Wing, or Miss New York.

The End

Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. Brain resource is running short, I'm afraid. After thinking so much about tomorrow's Queen Stakes, I can't even make heads nor tails. Intuition is screaming out to key Tosen Laurier, though rational me keeps reminding that the horse is not only an 11th favored longshot but also an outer post starter.

It seems my mind has done some calulations to make ends meet and succeeded in convincing my tired brain that if keying an 11th favored longshot starting from an outer post is irrational, a 5th favored Isla Bonita descendant starting from post number 1 in a 1800m race should be at least, more reasonable.

Resultingly, I'm keying Costa Bonita on a wheel of Win Pyxis, Light Quantum, Dura, Miss New York, and Tosen Laurier. Man, I don't know what I'm doing anymore. I just pulled up Win Pyxis' page three times just to check the spell.

The End

Caterpillar

7:49 p.m. My feelings wavered. Come to think of it, Isla Bonita descendants (and even Isla Bonita himself) were more of a bronze collecter than a winner. Why didn't I key Dura instead if I'm buying only quinellas? But I decided not to change my call before the race, so I put my half remained bet on trios.

And look what happened! This time I won by a nose! Hooray! After losing race after race by noses, heads or necks... Thank you Kohei Matsuyama, I really appreciate your finishing 3rd, not to mention it would have been even better if you finished 2nd. But thanks, anyway.

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Caterpillar

7:49 p.m. We're having dirt grade races this week Leopard Stakes for 3-year-olds at Niigata, and Elm Stakes for older horses at Sapporo.

As you might know, I've been guessing the pace every time but losing for a while and I realized (although too late) that I shouldn't build up my call based on such an uncertain factor. So I ditched the idea of guessing the pace last week and it worked. Think I'd stick to this style for a while and if I don't have to think about guessing the pace, it wouldn't really matter whether the race is only for 3-year-olds or not but well, to be on the safer side I'll choose Elm Stakes.

Was just about to start thinking about Elm Stakes when the notification sound of my smartphone announced an incoming message. It was from Mr. N-jima who also has won Queen Stakes (the old guy has won a trifecta!). Checking the entry form, I asked him if Authority coming back from a long break after injury is now changing his goal to winning a dirt G1 or simply trying to be careful not to hurt the horse again. So far there's been no reply from the old guy. Means he doesn't know, I guess.

The End

Caterpillar