2:55 p.m. Sorry again for skipping, I've had Mr. N-jima coming yesterday. Not to mention we were all astonished to see Titleholder stop like that.

Horse racing news told that it wans't just Titleholder that was met with an accident. African Gold seems to have been injured as well as Tosen Cambina. I wonder what they had in mind for African Gold to take the lead so fiercely as to get the horse injured?

Come to think of it, Titleholder had the risk to do a blunder or even get hurt after winning Nikkei-sho on such a tough track. He had also recovered from the loss of Arima Kinen in that race and that too might have put so much strain on the horse while he has been performing highly in top level races for quite a while. But having multiple horses get injured in a race, I have to suspect the track condition as at least part of the cause. Judging from the drastically improved darinage, perhaps the trackbed might have got too hard for the horses.

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Caterpillar

7:55 p.m. It transpired that Mr. Titleholder wasn't severly injured, possibly just sore muscles. Am I supposed to be relieved or what?

Many of us must have been unsure about the two Kiika-sho champions, Titlholder and Ask Victo More because neither of them had won the race at Kyoto. We weren't sure if they could handle Kyoto turf 3200m although they've won a Hanshin 3000m G1.

As Titleholder's trainer says, the horse has lost balance during the famous Kyoto downhill to hurt its foreleg. Fortunately though, the affected part doesn't seem to have caught fever and Titleholder is going through a thorough checkup after tomorrow. Currently the horse seems to be eating well. If nothing goes wrong, perhaps he'd come back to win Takaraduka Kinen as nothing had happened.

Today's lesson : Hanshin and Kyoto look similar in furlong record, but quite different in course features.

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Caterpillar

7:17 p.m. As is the case with me, reviewing Tenno-sho spring has been put into the pending list following the news of Titleholder having no serious injuries after close examination.

My current interest is already on NHK Mile Cup as you can imagine. 20 horses are entered as of today, and the expected win odds is plit. Whichever horse wins, the payout won't be so small, I guess. Added to this, heavy rain is predicted for Sunday afternoon which also might be a follow wind.

Though I'm not sure what to make of the race until the barrier draw, the would-be rain-softened track draws me towards horses like Tamamo Black Tie, Danon Touchdown, or Dolce More.

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Caterpillar

8:16 p.m. Trying to look at NHK Mile Cup from a different angle.

There are 7 to 8 front runners entered this year, suggesting that the pace could become tight depending on the barrier draw. It could become another case of full-field G1 race on soft track which I must have reviewed recently and vowed to myself not to miss the next chance, although I can't remember which race it was.

Unfortunately, there wasn't a year in the past 10 years when NHK Mile Cup wa run on soft track. Will have to check out the past results while searching through my spring G1 files.

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Caterpillar

7:30 p.m. Okay, the barriers have been drawn. BTW, I remembered which race was the full-field G1 race in tight pace on soft track that I'd recently reviewed, Satsuki-sho.

From the draw, I'm guessing the pace is going to be tight. The weather forecast says it's gong to rain on Sunday with the rain pouring in the afternoon as heavy as 7mm per hour. Sums up to the situation I've envisioned. Time to cash in on my Satsuki-sho loss.

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Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. Have finished early today despite the fact I had work this afternoon (and house chores in the morning).

Have tried to make the best out of what I'd learned from Satsuki-sho and when I did, reaching conlusion for NHK Mile Cup turned put to be unexpectedly simple. It wasn't easy, no, of course not, I said simple.

I'm keying either Dolce More or Danon Touchdown on a wheel of From Dusk, All Parfait, Navona, and Carro Veloce. Haven't heard from the training squad yet, so will decide which to key later but if nothing seems to be wrong, I'd personally like to key Danon Touchdown.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. I've been down on my luck from the moment I woke up this morning. Looks like it will go on for a while.

I chose Danon Touchdown to key and he sinks in fourth place. Need of washing pop up on a rainy day like this. Someone boasts he's won both Niigata Daishoten and NHK Mile Cup. What the fxxck was Yurisha doing by the way (excuse my language)? If she'd at least attempted to take the lead, the pace must have been tougher.

And the rain? Who said it was going to rain cats and dogs? I deserve an apology from the weather forecasting company.

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Caterpillar

7:15 p.m. In deep regret. Way too deep, so deep that I couldn't hold myself from peeking at the entrees of Victoria Mile Cup. And Eureka! I already found a perfect horse to key!

Still need to check out several things before I could make my decision, but she's it. Yeah, she's probably it. And it's not Sodashi nor Stars on Earth! Maybe all my spring losses up until now had been blessing in diguise.

The weather is concerning, though because the rider have mentioned she wasn't so good with soft track. I think she can handle it in nature, but well. Am not so worried about the barrier draw as it's Tokyo mile, less chances to get squezed in the field.

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Caterpillar

5:38 p.m. Really sorry for skipping again. I've been skipping quite often lately, haven't I? It's just that I had a vsitor coming by and couldn't spare time. Can't blame them when we're finally released from the pandemic.

My horses of interest haven't been too favored so far. Rain is expected again from Saturday to Monday however, Sunday's rain doesn't seem to last long while Saturday and Monday's forecast is still unstable. Don't want to jump to conclusions when I've been deceived last week, but maybe I wouldn't have to worry so much about rain this time.

Have checked last year's results to learn that I'd won a trio last year! Though am also surprised that I didn't even remember the fact that I'd won. Could that be early signs of dementia or am I simply too stupid to remember?

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Caterpillar

7:19 p.m. Was going to go out but I heard thunder rolling and decided to stay home today to work on making flip flops to wear inside the house out of used T-shirts. It was a task I've been wanting to finish before the hot seaon came along to avoid having foot prints on the floor when I walked barefooted.

Have merely finished half of my right foot though the entry for Victoria Mile Cup has been closed already. It turns out that Meikei Yell has scratched off. Pity, since I always want a full-field race for G1s.

One thing I remembered about mile races while making my flip flops is that horses that didn't perform well in their previous races as to lose below 8th position don't have much chance. Vigor do affect performances especially, in short distances.

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Caterpillar

7:05 p.m. The weather was fine and I went out to try a new deli. Turns out it had great value for money. Will definitely be a repeater, definitely. I came home to the headline of " Sodashi draws outmost post" so am now checking out the barrier draw.

So Sodahi did draw the outmost post which in my humble opinion, is not good for her. Apparently, there doesn't seem to be a horse that wants to take the lead, so the pace would probably drop to slow. Instantaneous speed is absolutely essential, whether the track is firm or good.

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8:19 p.m. Calling Victoria Mile while fighting the drowziness after work as usual. And the sad news is that I said I've already decided my key horse at an early stage of this week, but now I'm freaking out. I can't feel so sure she'd win.

Uncertainties are making me feel insecure again. The track condition, though would hold as firm judging from that of today. The pace however, seems unstable. Have accidentally came across former Jockey Katsumi Ando known as An-katsu mention there might be a scene for Damian to take the lead. If so, the pace could slightly tighten up to an average and the front runners will have the advantage.

And since I'm freaking out, I'm settling for naming just the candidates to make my final decision later. The six horses I've picked so far are Stars on Earth, Stunning Rose, La La Christine, Namur, Namura Clair, and Sodahi.

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Caterpillar

7:47 p.m. After freaking out and a night's pondering, I realized that if there's a chance for an unexpected win that would be a horse that has already won a Tokyo mile G1. But I couldn't shake off the thought that the horse to key should have high aptitude not just on Tokyo mile but also in good condition and can perform well on fast track.

In the end, I decided to key Namur while replacing Sodashi with Songline. I also placed some insurance on exactas fixing Songline on the first, while leaving out Sodashi again and look what happened. Come to think of it, Sodashi has never paid me back in any way.

And I just realized that I'd mistyped Sodashi's name as Sodahi yesterday. No wonder she doesn't pay me back.

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Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. Diligently working on the left foot of my used T-shirt flip flops while reviewing Victoria Mile Cup.

The results show that Namura Clair and Namur were both catchy trick options. True they both might have had their course cut, but that too might have not happened if they'd either pushed up front like Sodahi or stayed behind like Divina. Namura Clair has finished 2nd in the heavy track Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen. Horses from Takamatsuno-no Miya Kinen that perform well in either Victoria Mile or Yasuda Kinen should be a mile specialist that didn't perform well in the sprint G1 because it wasn't their specialties.

As for Namur, I did feel a twinge of concern at her finishing 2nd in her previous race Tokyo Shinbunhai after a running a tough G1 as Queen Elizabeth Cup. If Namur runs a mid-distance G3 or even G2 as her next race, I think she'll do pretty well if not win.

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Caterpillar

7:25 p.m. Starting to think about Oaks. Though I'm afraid Liberty Island is too hard to beat. I understand that very well, but would like to challenge assumptions and think if there's any chance Liberty Island could be beaten.

The only time Liberty Island has finished behind another horse so far has been Artemis Stakes, which was the second race 3 months after her debut in July. I remember seeing Liberty Island being a bit nervous before that race, but personally I think it wasn't her problem but rather the advantage Ravel had that decided the result.

If there's any chance Liberty Island downgrades her performance, that's got to be the distance extension since she's been easy-winning so far and it's unlikely that her physical or mental stress is piled up to its peak. Unfortuantely, there doesn't seem to be a soft spot for this horse unless she draws post number 11 or something.

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Caterpillar

6:56 p.m. Horses that are planning to enter Yasuda Kinen has been announced and besides the usual milers such as Elusive Panther, Win Carnelian, Schnell Meister, Serifos, or Danon Scorpion, there were also names like Jack d'Or, Gaia Force, Sodashi, Songline, Dolce More, Naran Huleg, and Meikei Yell. What a confusion. Whereas Stars on Earth has been announced to go for a recess until fall. Another spoiled horse, here.

Have been checking out the past results of Oaks and learned that unless Ohka-sho winner can't perform well for some reason, Oaks winner would be one of the horses that have run in Ohka-sho in their previous race. So the question stays the same : can Liberty Island perform as well as she did in Ohka-sho in Oaks or not?

Liberty Island's last workout before Oaks this morning has just recorded her last furlong as 10.8 seconds and there seems to be nothing wrong with her condition so far. Whether she could handle the half-a-mile extension is a mystery, though it's likely that she can judging from the performances of Stars on Earth. If there's any chance to take advantage, it would be a situation when Liberty Island has to hit the break while accelerating which might not happen so often on Tokyo 2400m.

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Caterpillar

6:48 p.m. All right, the barrier draw. So the worst two posts 11 and 12 were drawn by Mikki Gorgeous and Harper. Worst two, meaning that they've never finished in top three, at least for the past 20 years. Post number 12 has been in third place twice, when Whale Capture and some other horse managed to slip in 3rd place, I think.

Liberty Island has drawn an inner post though I don't know if that's good or bad for this horse. If Yuga is thinking of urging her a bit to tae a good position, it could become critical. That said, which horse would be the most reliable to key? By the way, this year's lucky post number 1 goes to Ravel.

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Caterpillar

7:27 p.m. Let's say Liberty Island can't be helped. What's crucial is to find the horse(s) that would be advantaged by the given conditions of this year's Oaks. The currently falling rain is said to stop soon and so I'm thinking that the turf could be firm and fast.

If Golden Hind takes the lead, it's possible that the pace drops to a slow. In that case, it would be difficult for horses staying in the back to perform well while Golden Hind himself might have a chance to hang on. Additonally, it would be difficult for horses that have lost big in their previous races to make up for their losses, unless they've lost with a clear reason and that reason can be avoided this time.

I'm carefully examining each horse right now which would probably take a lot of time. Have just given up on Kona Coast though I wished she'd perform well. I decided it just isn't her stage this time.

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Caterpillar

8:08 p.m. Exhausted after working with a pigheaded client, I almost thought it was some new sort of torture. I even had to go out to take a short walk for a change and I still feel like my precious time has gone to waste.

So it was good for me to ponder the options yesterday to have narrowed them down before I resumed about an hour ago. I'm glad to say I've reached my conclusion though I can't (and won't) guarantee I'd win.

Will key So Dazzling. I remember saying she won't "dazzle so much" before she ran Flora Stakes. I've said that with a reason. Tomorrow will be the day. On the wheel would be Light Quantum, Liberty Island, Harper, Perifania, and Doe Eyes.

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Caterpillar

7:58 p.m. Yes, it's my complete loss. Liberty Island was the greatest. So Dazzling didn't dazzle at all and I rather felt dizzy from the terrible loss.

The winning record is also splendid. It's actually the 2nd fastest in the past 10 years following 2019 winner Loves Only You. It was also amazing how she fought to hold herself down while having trouble harmonizing. Really, I take my hat off.

The others (including So Dazzling) however, have to be called in close competition. The front runners especially, are the target of my concern since the race wasn't in a tight pace and the track didn't give advantage to the trailers, rather the contrary.

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Caterpillar

7:21 p.m. Looking back, I had a good start this year actually, great start. I thought I was reborn into a new me. But then my results for the spring races so far are beyond miserable and I have no idea where or what I've been doing wrong.

However, I've decided not to care too much about it. I've been working hard to review the races I've lost so I can pin down what it was that I'd done wrong and change it, so that I won't make the same mistake again. I thought that would eventually lead me to winning. You know, the PDCA kind of thing?

It struck me that perhaps that had been the wrong point I mean, not the right mindset when calling races. After all, you don't win a race because you've worked hard, you win a race simply when you've called it right. And I'm pretty sure most of the betters out there are losers like myself.

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Caterpillar

7:28 p.m. Oh god, have fallen asleep. I've been fighting the sleepiness all along since it would get me awake at night but it all went down the drain.

My notes on D'erby from last year says forget the front runners when it's likely to become slow pace, because they will be taken over by horses with instantaneous speed. Well there are quite a few front runners entered, but I can't guess the pace yet until the barriers are out so will have to wait until Thursday.

Another thing I noticed is that there are 11 horses coming from Satsuki-sho. That's also quite a few. As a matter of fact, more than half of the competitors are from Satsuki-sho. Wouldn't that make D'erby more lik Satsuki-sho rather than Aoba-sho or other trial races?

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. If it becomes an instantaneous speed contest, I absolutely can't leave out Sol Oriens. I've done a terrible blunder last week putting Liberty Island on the wheel instead of keying her, so must be very careful this week. FYI, the top favored horse in D'erby has a high possibility of finishing in top 3 at the rate of 70%, at least in the past 10 years.

Getting rather suspicious about Skilfing on the other hand, though he has already proven of his outstanding instantaneous speed and the high aptitude against Tokyo 2400m. I admit his high aptitude, but this time his rivals won't be as easy as the ones he raced against in the past two races.

Granite is not entered so I don't think the pace is going to be that tough like Satsuki-sho, well, not at this point, but it probaly won't be easy for horses coming from other trial races besides Satsuki-sho.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. The barrier draw is out. And Sol Oriens has drawn post number 5. All the more I can't leave him out.

Pax Ottomanica has drawn an outer post. He would want to go at a leisurely pace but there are quite a few front runners and they probably won't let him. So I'm guessing the pace to be average. And the lucky winner of post number 1 this year was Bellagio Opera.

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Caterpillar

8:11 p.m. With the start of Friday pre-sale, Sol Oriens' win odds have dropped as expected. Yeah well, that can't be helped I reckon.

I'm currently thinking that there's a high possibility of the race finishing with the top 3 horses all from Satsuki-sho. Because more than half the entrees are from Satsuki-sho, the possibility would simply increase. Besides, experiencing the G1 level in a tough race like Satsuki-sho I think, would also be crucial to perform well in a G1.

The most important, though is to find the horses that would improve their performance from Satsuki-sho. Now how am I supposed to find them?

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. Sleepy as every weekend. Having a hard time trying to stay awake as a matter of fact.

Had the candidates for D'erby narrow down to about half yesterday so all I needed to do was to carve them down a bit further. And yet I've been struggling because of the sleepiness. And I still haven't checked out the annual Meguro Kinen yet, you know.

This week I'm going to be good and key Sol Oriens. On the wheel would be Bellagio Opera, Skilfing, Hrimfaxi, Tastiera, and Phantom Thief. I'm not keen on including Skilfing or Tastiera, to be honest. Will decide the orders for trifectas later maybe, after a nice soak in the bath since I'm going down to the off-track betting tomorrow in a while.

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Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. Sorry for skipping again but it's been quite a while since I last went out to the off-track betting and it got me tired. It wasn't just because of the outing, though. My loss only a nose away also shares a large part of it.

Feel sorry for Skilfing. It seems to me as though he paid the price for his consecutive high performance in the distance over 2000m. Racing in longer distances at this time of a race horse's career puts a lot of strain on the horse especially, with short intervals. Think I've mentioned that before and that's why I've been suspicious about Skilfing's performance in D'erby. Hope he's released from all the fatigue now.

Have pondered about the loss of Sol Oriens overnight and still think he's a great horse despite his finishing second against Tastiera. The winning record yesterday was quite disappointing but that could have been because of Satsuki-sho being so tough a race. That also explains Bellagio Opera's nose gap against Hearts Concerto. Personally rather think Sol Oriens has hung in quite well that he's sure to make a come back. You wait and see. As for Tastiera, he has his pros and cons, so will have to keep a careful watch on him.

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Caterpillar

7:45 p.m. Have finished reviewing D'erby and moved onto preparing for Yasuda Kinen. As the headlines have been crying out loud, 9 G1 champions are entered this year.

The expected win odds released today is currently led by Sodashi with Jack d'Or and Schnell Meister behind but as the odds show, the favorites would be widely spread. That means you're likely to win a satisfactory payout if you win.

Mr. N-jima has boasted to fix Jack d'Or on the firs place however, I see other horses that could do better than Jack d'Or. Jack d'Or seems rather risky to my eyes considering his win in Osaka-hai and that it's his first mile G1 challenge. I'm not worried about his first challenge, what worries me is that he's shortening the distance.

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Caterpillar

7:28 p.m. It all depends on the rainy season front and the behavior of the typhoon, but if the track dries off by the time Yasuda Kinen runs, I'm thinking the track will be pretty firm and fast.

On the day D'erby was held, a 3 wins class 1800m race for 3 year-olds and above finished in 1 minute 45.1 seconds, while a 1600m maiden race for 3 year-olds finished in 1 minute 32.8 seconds. That's one reason I've been disappointed with the finishing record of D'erby at first. Though later I've concluded that must have been affected by the toughness of Satsuki-sho.

If what I'm thinking becomes true, top finishers in Yasuda Kinen will be required high aptitude for fast tracks as the finishing record should be at least, faster than 1 minute 32.8.

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Caterpillar