7:32 p.m. Troubled as I have no idea whether Authority can perform well in his first dirt race. Have gone on with a search about Orfevre descendants to seek for clues. My knowledge is very limited to particular Orfevre descendants that performed well on turf like Epoca d'Oro or Lucky Lilac, so I need further searching to modify and expand it.

Thinking of Orfevre descendants that switched from turf to dirt and performed well reminds me of Ushba Tesoro and Marche Lorraine. Although these two differ in sex, what they had in common was that they'd both won at least twice on turf, and that their first dirt race were not champion distance races.

Well, Authority has won Argentina Republic Cup two years in a row and Elm Stakes is a non-champion distance race which means the horse meets the two conditions mentioned.

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Caterpillar

7:14 p.m. Orfevre descendants also seem to be known as "horses that need time to adjust". This contradicts the high performance recorded by Ushba Tesoro and Marche Loraine as they both won in their first dirt challenge.

Nevertheless, Orfevre descendants have enough power to be able to handle dirt race and generally judging, I guess it's better to keep Authority rather than delete the option completely. But then, which horse should be keyed?

Good question. Will have to wait until the barrier draw for further assumption as barriers are likely to largely affect the results. Santa Anita Trophy is run at Ohi meanwhile. Old pal Mr. N-jima says he's betting his luck keying Sure Gait.

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Caterpillar

7:22 p.m. It's Thursday and the entry for Elm Stakes has been closed. Looks like it's going to run with 14 horses, which seems to have become sort of like a ritual. There are quite a few front runners entered, so the pace might become tight too as usual. This also seems to have become annual.

The odds-on favorite Peptide Nile is currently the most favored in expected win odds, and it would probably be difficult to go against him. If there's a glitch in this horse, it might be the racing schedule with the interval being a bit short between Ohnuma Stakes and the previous Marine Stakes, that the physical (and mental) stress might backfire.

Old Mr. N-jima seems to have won a trifecta in yesterday's Santa Anita Trophy, BTW. I've suggested buying Time Flyer through a messenger app to which the old pal sounded reluctant at first. But with my further encouragement on the rider Ryan Curatolo, he seemed to have been convinced. A thanks message arrived later. That's the way, pal.

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Caterpillar

7:20 p.m. All right, the barrier draw is out. Peptide Nile drew a good post in the sense that it's an inner post whereas outer post starters will be diadvantaged, I think.

But things are taking a rapid turn. The weather forecast I took a glimpse of last night mentioned the risk of rain, heavy rain in Hokkaido for this weekend. Hey, that could be a game changer, you know?

Will have to go and check out the past results to see what might happen on muddy tracks. I know Peptide Nile could take the lead, and that might become a double-edged sword for the horse especially, on muddy track if/when the horse is tired.

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Caterpillar

7:39 p.m. Had to get up earlier than a usual Saturday since I had a visitor coming a little before noon. Both sleep-deprived and tired, I've been rowing back and forth for the past hour or so. The sound of Bo-Odori held at a nearby park barely bringing me back to life occasionally.

Have done my homework to check out the past results on muddy tracks and it seems (as expected) the leader and the trailer get the advantage. The only horse from behind that performed well on muddy tracks was Mitsuba, with a Sunday Silence sireline as well as shortening the distance, starting from an inner post.

I'm keying Peptide Nile on a wheel of Authority, Roche Lobe, and Ashaka Tobu in quinellas and trios, accompanied by exactas keying Authority on the first place, Roche Lobe and Ashaka Tobu on the second. Doesn't that sound a bit appetizing?

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Caterpillar

7:30 p.m. I thought there were several front runners including Peptide Nile, Taisei Samson or Belenus that might want to take the lead but then the pace dropped to an average while the most favred Peptide Nile had been fumbling around with his position.

As a result the race gave more advantage to horses with instantaneous speed rather than power, letting Sekifu take over the others with a stunning 35.5 seconds for the last 3 furlongs. There was nothing I could do since I thought otherwise. Peptide Nile sunk in a miserable 13th place ad Authority, 12th.

I was worried to see the track condition worse than I'd expected because that might provoke Peptide Nile's loss. What I feared has happened apparently, and Peptide Nile couldn't take the lead even in an average pace due to fatigue. As for Authority, perhaps this is what is meant by "needs time to adjust".

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Caterpillar

7:32 p.m. All right. So the thing is, I realized there was some risk in Peptide Nile but wasn't actually sure what to do after I realized it. Consequently, I've chosen the wrong horse to key. Authority certainly wasn't suitable considering he had no experience in dirt races although he was appealing.

So in case I come across a similar situation, I should always keep in mind to have a plan B. Specifically, what to do if my initial plan has the risk of falling apart.

This week we're having a mile race Sekiya Kinen at Niigata and a champion distance handicapped race Kokura Kinen at Kokura. I'm tilted towards Kokura Kinen since I've won it before but haven't made up my mind yet. I just can't be sure about the weather meaning it could drastically change the track condition.

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Caterpillar

8:00 p.m. Have spent half the day watching Koshien while responding to Mr. N-jima's catcalls. The old guy needs attention, keep bugging me from time to time.

Naturally, looking at the past results of Kokura Kinen rather than Sekiya Kinen. The forecast is predicting Sunday to be sunny but you never know. It all depends on the movement of Khanun.

So far it looks like inner post starters are a bit advantaged compared to the outer starters. Well, it's the opening week for Kokura so I won't be surprised. And unless the pace gets tight or the track soft, speed type horses with instantaneous force seem to perform better.

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Caterpillar

7:25 p.m. Am checking the past results on the premise I'm choosing Kokura Kinen.

It seems horses that run the same distance in their previous races are performing well except for year 2021 when the race was held with a small field of just 10 horses, and on good track condition. This year, all top 3 finishers were extending the distance from their previous races which were 1800m.

There are actually a couple of horses that finished in top 3 shortening the distance however, their previous races were all G1 races like Tnnno-sho (spring), Takaraduka Kinen, or D'erby. This may be bad news for the 2021 winner Mozu Nagareboshi. It may be better to think that 2021 was a rare case, though.

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Caterpillar

7:49 p.m. It's a Thursday (without any disturbance so far) and the entry has been closed for the weekend. I've checked out Sekiya Kinen, too but it just didn't strike me. Niigata mile is not my specialty. So I've decided to go for Kokura Kinen as expected.

It greatly depends on the barrier draw, I guess. If Maria Elena could draw an inner post, she could be the horse to beat. I'll think about the rest after the barrier draw.

I happened to discover that one of my old classmate has become a bit famous through web searching, I tried googling my family member's name just for fun to come across results I never imagined to see. Since then, I'm a bit into googling familiar names. It's pretty fun by the way. It makes you feel like you're on a treasurehunt.

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Caterpillar

7:29 p.m. So the barrier has been drawn. This year, Kokura Kinen will be run with a full field or 16 horses and Maria Elena has drawn post number 4. Now I'll have to keep her on my wheel, tsk.

Despite the approaching typhoon Lan, Kokura's weather seems to go without rain through the weekend, so the finishing record probably is going to be quite fast possibly in the range of 1 minute 57 seconds. Horses that perform well on firm tracks will have the benefit.

Will try scruitinizing the racing form now, though am getting sleepy again. I shall change my name from (the hungry) Caterpillar to Sleepy-eye Caterpillar by the way.

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Caterpillar

9:08 p.m. I've taken today off for the Obon holiday. And because I wanted to spend tomorrow leisurely watching baseball and horserace, I was thinking of finishing up house cleaning this afternoon. But then stupid Cow falls asleep snoring on the floor making me alter my plans.

Everything got pushed behind while the cleaning has been undone. Plus it took me more time than usual to call Kokura Kinen. Handicap races are always difficult, you see. And with this year's lame competitors, no one could complain if Maria Elena won two years in a row.

Although I have no confidence, I decided inner post drawers must be advantaged. Also, I'm trying for exactas for a while. After all, how would I win trifectas if I can't win exactas? Fixing Maria Elena and Catedral on the first place on exacta formation, Curren Leciel Bleu, T O Sirius, Echt, Maria Elena, Catedral, and Seizinger on the second.

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Caterpillar

7:00 p.m. Errr... picked the wrong horse to key, apparently. I thought Catedral have been pepped up in his pervious two races which were both dirt races, so he could easily take a good position up front along the rail. But then, the horse didn't pick up speed and dropped down way too behind. No way he could win from that position.

I think I was on the right track, though having been able to weigh Maria Elena less while including T O Sirius. Not bad for me. I should keep it up at least until this weekend's Sapporo Kinen. Some people are calling it "the summer Tenno-sho" as big names have been lined up. Shahryar, Jack d'Or, Danon Beluga, Win Marilyn, just to name a few.

Now if you'll excuse me, I gotta go upstairs to watch Koshien. The third game today has been pushed later due to sporadic rain.

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Caterpillar

7:31 p.m. Looking at the entrees of Sapporo Kinen. Jack d'Or, possibly the most favored in win odds I have to say, could be quite shaky. Although he's the defending champion of this race, the given condition is a bit different from last year.

Before winning Sapporo Kinen last summer, Jack d'Or has lost in 5th place in Osaka-hai despite taking lead in the race. In Sapporo Kinen, Yusuke Fujioka held Jack d'Or behind Unicorn Lion and Win Marylin to let Panthalassa take the lead at a tight pace. This worked as stimulation however, this year Jack d'Or is extending the distance from Yasuda Kinen.

Can't be sure since the horse has never extended distance before, but it could become a double-edged sword. Personally, I think Jack d'Or is a powerful speed type and he'd perform better taking the lead (or even sweeping up the outside) in a tight lap, soft track preferrable. If he lets Unicorn Lion take the lead, the pace could drop and it won't be Jack d'Or's race, I'm afraid.

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Caterpillar

7:55 p.m. It's likely that Yutaka would hold down Jack d'Or to the 2nd or 3rd from the top in position. Among the current entrees, there are actually multiple horses that could take the lead besides Jack d'Or such as African Gold, Unicorn Lion, even So valiant or Top Knife.

In my personal opinion, I don't think So Valiant would take the lead as Christophe probaly don't want to draw the joker. But there's a possibility that Top Knife would take the risk depending on the barrier. After all, the horse has performed well when he did take the lead. And Yokoyama dad might have made some suggestions to Yokoyama Jr., who knows?

With that taken into account, Jack d'Or might not be a good option to key. Then who?

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Caterpillar

7:41 p.m. If Jack d'Or is not appropriate to key, what about the 2nd favored in expected in win odds in this case, Prognosis? Getting straight to the point, it's not a bad idea.

Seven Deep Impact descendants have finished within top 3 in the past 10 years which is at the rate of 23.3%. As mentioned, it's not bad. What these Deep Impact descendants share in common were that they recovered their performance in a flow that seemed to take 35 seconds in the last 3 furlongs, and that they performed well when the distance was extended.

Prognosis hasn't always performed better in distance extension however, he's degraded his performance in shortening distances. This means there's a slight chance he could be the same type that could perform well in Sapporo Kinen.

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Caterpillar

7:18 p.m. All right, the entry has been closed for Sapporo Kinen and there will be 15 horses running this year. Also, Jo Moreira has been approved of short term license for a month to ride Danon Beluga in Sapporo Kinen. That must be good news for Danon Beluga.

Looking further into the pedigree backgrounds of higly performing Deep Impact descendants revealed that they had either Norther Dancer line or Nearctic line in their broodmare sire. Turning eyes to Prognosis, he doesn't have such background in his broodmare sire. Perhaps this might become his weak point. Well, I'll think more about it after the barrier draw tomorrow.

For your information, on a weather report website (which might not be the most accurate in Japan), Sapporo is expecting occasional slight rain both on Saturday and Sunday. On the premise that rhe rain is "slight" the track condition probably will not get as soft as to benefit Jack d'Or, but the results of the past 10 years suggest a tight pace when run with 15 or more horses. Wonder what the outcome would be?

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Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. The barrier draw has been released and from the way the horses are lined up the pace is unlikely to get slow, I assume. African Gold, Top Knife drawing the outer barrier with Unicorn Lion on the far out, I don't think Jack d'Or would take the lead.

The inner post drawers, though have their own advantages cosidering the course. The most advantaged of those inner post drawers seems to me to be So Valiant. Drawing an inner-most post in a big-field race that's likely to get tough, that's when Orfevre blood shines, wasn't it? And it's also the 4th time for So Valiant to experience a 2000m grade race. Orfevre descendants needed to get used to the condition, didn't they?

Mr. N-jima has been pestering me from around noon pushing his favorite Jack d'Or against me, but I choose to ponder my call centering So Valiant for such reasons.

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Caterpillar

8:34 p.m. Aaaaargh! Feel like I'm tortured, being torn in two or three. Am so tired, sleepy and frustrated!

I've narrowed down the candidates to key to 3 horses, So Valiant, Jack d'Or, and Prognosis, but I just can't pick one. Since it's a non-handicapped race, it's hard to think horses like So Valiant that has never raced carrying 58kg could beat Jack d'Or. But the horse has been blessed with an inner-most post in a big-field race, a situation he couldn't ask for more.

Prognosis might perform better in an intantaneous speed contest and he never has carried 58 either, but has drawn an ideal post. On the other hand, Jack d'Or meets the condition and doesn't matter the weight, though has the uncertainty about the position in the race. The logically sensible conclusion would be to key key Jack d'Or, I know. However, there's this twinge of fear inside me that he won't win if finish within the top 3.

Will hang in there and try thinking some more. For your information, the current surviving horses on my list are So Valiant, Win Mrylin, Jack d'Or, either Lagulf or Hishi Iguazu, and Prognosis. I'm skipping tomorrow BTW because Mr. N-jima is coming, sorry.

The End

Caterpillar

8:08 p.m. Wasn't I going to choose races? I mean, Sapporo Kinen was not the race to buy at the point when I couldn't pick a horse to key from the three, So Valiant, Jack d'Or and Prognosis.

I also had forgotten about the chance of rain and didn't take into acount the possibility of a good to firm track condition. Not to mention I'd have won if I did, since Top Knife was completely unmarked. The biggest disappointment however, was Jack d'Or. Come to think of it, though didn't I decide the horse has went over its prime after Yasuda Kinen?

Anyway, my review's done. Will just have to pull myself together and face the next race, possibly Keenland Cup.

The End

Caterpillar

7:45 p.m. I've been out for my daily exercise and was not only surprised but a bit sad to see the apartment building in which I used to live just a couple of years ago has been put on sale. The owner used to run a small factory on the ground floor though he'd be retiring from business, it seems.

It was merely 7 months that I'd spent there however, back then I felt more free and it's true I miss that freedom. Feeling a twinge of sentimentalism, I try to raise my eyes to look to the future.

So far, the only thing I learned from the past 10 years of Keenland Cup's results is that one, horses starting from outer posts as well as from behind are doing quite well contrary to what I'd expected, and two, that the Nearctic line in either the sire side or the broodmare's side is performing well, meaning that once again speed and power is a must.

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Caterpillar

8:02 p.m. Had to go out this afternoon as I had a dentist appointment, so took a detour making use of this opportunity to also finish up my daily exercise. After I returned, had to deal with some house work thanks to stupid Cow, and now I'm half sleeping.

I just checked the weekly weather forecast for Sapporo and learned it would be raining on and off in Sapporo from Thursday to Sunday, oh man. Have referred to the predictions made by "the most accurate weather report in Japan" for your information. Thinking back, the turf looked quite tough at the time of Sapporo Kinen despite the good to firm condition. Perhaps more power would be required than I'm currently thinking.

In case if/when the track gets soft while the pace tight, chances could broaden for outer post drawers that are also muddy track demons.

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Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. Had a visitor coming by early afternoon, then reluctantly went out shopping in the heat and humidity. Daunted that this heat is said to last throughout next month. Unbelievable, really. When I was a teenager, there were only a couple of days that went over 30 degrees during summer vacation, and I don't think it's just because we've emitted too much carbon dioxide. Such drastic climate change (in such short time span) I believe, cannot be caused merely because of carbon dioxide.

While I've been complaining about the heat, the entry for Keenland Cup has been closed. With Namura Clair pushed up to the horse to beat as expected. Understandable, as she's performed well in Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen when the track was muddy. I guess you could call her a muddy track demon.

Perhaps (or hopefully) you might have forgotten another muddy track demon, Naran Huleg. Though the horses already 7 years of age, he's the 2022 Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen champion which was run on soft track. He'd need a bit of help with the pace since he stays behind, but there could be a chance for him to reach 3rd place.

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Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. Okay, the barrier has been drawn. Looks like Namura Clair has drawn post number 14. Not a bad draw rather good, since either post number 13 or 14 has finished in the top 3 five times in the pat 10 years, three of which were post number 14.

As a matter of fact, post number 7, 8, 11 and 12 have all performed as well (three times in the past 10 years) following post number 14. This year, the horses that drew these post numbers respectively are Kaiser Melange, Cinnamon Stick, Vatreni, and Toshin Macau.

From the way the horses are lined up, I don't see a horse that definitely has to take the lead despite the sprint distance. Leaving aside Kaiser Melange already 8 years old, perhaps it would be a good idea to simply buy Cinnamon Stick, Vatreni, Toshin Macau keying Namura Clair?

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Caterpillar

8:39 p.m. Dozing off from time to time while fighting sleep fiercely. The forecast is predicting light rain for Sapporo tomorrow from morning so there's a chance the track condition would be good to firm.

Have taken that into account and just couldn't shake off the muddy track demons Namura Clair and Naran Huleg. Seeing the tough track condition last week, I focused on picking up powerful horses among the competitors rather than the flashy speed type horses.

Keying Namura Clair on a wheel of Naran Huleg, Win Marvel, Sonnig, Vatreni, and Satono Ai. On trio. If it was in quinella, I'd key Namura Clair on a wheel of Naran Huleg, Win Marvel, and Sonnig.

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Caterpillar

7:48 p.m. Around noon when I checked the track condition of Sapporo, the weather was still cloudy and the track good to firm. After about an hour or so I received incoming messages from excited Mr. N-jima who was at Kawasaki Race Course that it looks like it started raining in Sapporo.

Before 2 p.m. the falling rain formerly predicted by "Japan's most reliable weather forecast app" as slight rain of 1 to 2mm rainfall per hour, suddenly turned to a thunderstorm and JRA announced they would suspend the races after Race 8 until they decide whether to continue them or not. At this point, I thought the track should be more than tough and that I'd made a good decision choosing horses with power.

But then, what the result show is that the track wasn't actually as tough as I'd thought and if you chose the right course, having speed would have advantaged more than having power. I think I heard that Sapporo was a course that had good water drainage. Now I rememberit.

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Caterpillar

7:39 p.m. Looking back on Keenland Cup, what I'd written on Friday about the post numbers has come true. That horses starting from the lucky post numbers 8, 12, and 14 finished in the top 3. If I'd pracriced what I'd preached, I would have won 6,150 yen. Let me put it down in my notes for Keenland Cup, "Shut your eyes and buy post numbers 7, 8, 11, 12 keying either 13 or 14. Then You'll win Keenland Cup once in every 3 years."

This week I'm thinking of Niigata Kinen however, it doesn't look like an easy rac to win. Basically, the outer post starters seem to do well as it's the last week of Niigata Race Course and as we all know, the inner course is usually damaged. Additionally, Niigata is also notorious for its advantage on the outer side of the turf.

Though it's true there are certain years in the past decade when inner post number starters have performedd better. Besides, it's a handicapped race which means it's hard to call. I thought it would be easy peasy to just pick out horses with instantaneous speed from the ones that drew outer posts, but in fact things don't seem so simple.

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Caterpillar

7:58 p.m. Perspiration coming down like Niagara Falls. We're still having the temperature in the mid-30s almost the same as our body temperature, and the forecasts keep saying it's going to last for another month while they're already having snow in Italy.

Fully appreciating the effect of air conditioning. Thrifty Cow only turns on the air conditioner while we're using the computer around this time of day and at dinner time when we cook and eat. No air conditioning during daytime except when we have clients or visitors coming by. It's torture.

Thus I've been forced to collect data and analyze races in a very limited amount of time. Today I've realized that many of the high performers of Niigata Kinen have Sunday Silence or MrProspector (or both) in their pedigree background. Speed seems to be crucial.

The End

Caterpillar

7:05 p.m. My smartphone broke.

The silicone case had kept popping off for a while and I thought it was because of the heat that perhaps the case expanded to go out of shape. Today I took the case off to see if I could cool it down to shrink and realized for the first time that the back pannel of my smartphone was pushed up from inside to create a gap between th motherboard. I've seen this before in a TV news reporting battery expansion.

Now I have to go through the trouble of searching, finding a smartphone that has good cpu, enough RAM memory, long lasting battery and yet in reasonable price that I can afford. I can't even listen to music during my daily exercise until I ge myself I new device, darn! The only progress I made on Niigata Kinen today is that Pradaria who at first seemed a good horse to key, perhaps might not be a good choice after all. The horse hasn't showed the necessary instantaneous speed lately.

If you'll excuse me, I have the dautning task of backing up all the data on my phone, then the long searching journey for a new device.

The End

Caterpillar

7:19 p.m. Have ordered a new smartphone and made the payment this morning. The payment has been approved this afternoon, the product already secured and on its way to delivery. If all goes well, it could even arrive by Saturday. One thing I like about Yodobashi is that their extreme shipment service is actually etremely fast.

Meanhile, the entry for Niigata Kinen has been closed and this year's Niigata Kinen will be run with ...what the... merely 14 horses. Damn, what happened to all the others? I haven't been able to follow horseracing news without a smartphone so I'm not sure what happened. On the other hand, I'm enjoying the peacefulness uninterrupted by Mr. N-jima's frequent messages.

Unfortunately, though the past 10 years suggests there might be an advantage for inner post starters rather thanthe outer post starters for such smaller field races, especially when the track gets either fast or soft. Well, it would become difficult for trailers from outer posts to take over on such track condition in a leisurely pace.

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Caterpillar