5:51 p.m. Reviewing Tenno-sho. Basically, the score scale worked well except that the order of Gran Alegria and Hishi Iguazu should have been reversed. Just for you information, the score scale has calculated each horses score as follows : Efforira 24, Contrail 21, Hishi Iguazu 20, Gran Alegria 18, Sanrei Pocket 14, Curren Bouquetd'or 10.

That means there's room for revision to make it work better. Will have to analyze, ponder, and then make action to improve. Guess it's something close to the PDCA cycle they use in business. We won't have any G1 races this weekend, so it will be a good chance.

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6:22 p.m. Have been to the dentist to pick up my newly made dental mouth guard. Rode the cross bike with too big a frame but there wasn't much problem except that it was quite thrilling riding back in the dark, on a narrow oneway road with cars rushing by. I need to buy a helmet.

Taking a peek at Argentina Republic Cup and Miyako Stakes which would be run this weekend instead of a G1. A brief scan told me Anticipate might do well if he draws an inner to middle post, and perhaps Iron Barows or Meiner Virtus. The stance should basically the same; if it's not gonna be a tight lap or soft track, horses with instantaneous speed would have the advantage.

As for Miyako S, Clincher might do well since this race is welcome to repeaters, though he'd probably downgrade his performance compared to last year. My attention is on Meisho Murakumo's performance.

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1:34 p.m. Before the weekend, we're having JBC today. This year it will be held at Kanazawa race track which makes me lose my interest considerably. I mean I've never been to Kanazawa, I don't know what the tracks are like (not even the layout) though probaly having tight corners and short homestretch I assume. So am not gonna call nor buy betting tickets for JBC this year.

If I dare to make a wild guess, let's see... Mozu Superflare for JBC Sprint, Chuwa Wizard for JBC Classic.

5:33 p.m. Let's see what happened. Mozu Superflare has finished in 3rd place while Chuwa Wizard has also finished in 3rd place. Not bad for a wild guess, I reckon.

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5:59 p.m. The entry have been closed for this weekend's grade races and the riders have been announced as well.

Looks like Yutaka is riding Clincher again in Miyako Stakes. It will be the first race after Teioh-sho at the end of June, so there's a 4-months blank for Clincher. Clincher seems able to handle the interval itself, so the barrier draw might become the key to his high performance. Perhaps a middle post like number 9 or 10 would be good for him considering both the course layout and the number of competitors.

As for Argentina Republic Cup, I'm pretty dubious of Authority especially, when he's this favored while carrying the heaviest weight.

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5:41 p.m. The barrier draw for the weekend races have been announced.

Anticipate has unfortunatly drawn the outmost post in Argentna Republic Cup which is a disadvantage on Tokyo 2500m, while Meiner Virtus drew post number 12 not so bad if Mirco could lead him up front, though he still needs the boost on the homestretch.

Meanwhile Clincher has drawn post number 11 in Miyako Stakes. The horse seems to have enough luck on him. If Clincher could take the lead smoothly, the pace could settle for an average. And if it becomes an avrage pace, horses that perfromed well in their previous races will get another chance.

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5:58 p.m. Haven't prepared for the grade races, just silently watching how they will turn out to be as G1 races still follow on Tokyo turf.

Speaking of Tokyo turf, it seems the trend is still there that instantaneous speed is essential and inner post drawers have the advantage. In that sense, Fly Like Bird or Iron Barows might be better to choose. If Bozzhira has kept his condition, perhaps he could hang in there. Meiner Virtus has drawn a good post as mentioned earlier, though it's up to Mirco whether the horse and rider could get a boost.

Would rather go for Meisho Murakumo running Miyako Stakes, if I were to buy betting tickets.

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4:46 p.m. Why couldn't I wait till Queen Elizabeth Cup? I've put my bet on the place for Meisho Murakumo although I hadn't looked into the race well enough...

Have had a pleasant surprise this morning with the news of Loves Only You winning Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf and Marche Lorraine winning Breeders' Cup Distaff, which made me feel quite good actually, too good to have my head in the clouds.

Del Mar Racetrack where Breeders' Cup was held is a couner-clockwise course with its lap lenght exactly 1 mile. The course setting is similar to that of Chukyo (counter-clockwise, 1530m) which explains why Loves Only You, a Deep Impact descendant performed very highly. Same goes for Marche Lorraine who has an experience of finishing 3rd in Heian Stakes, though my compliment goes to the horse and rider that overcame the dirt texture fairly different from that in Japan. I'd like to make use of this opportunity to reflect on my blunder and humbly start over again from tomorrow.

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6:38 p.m. All right, better freshen up and concentrate on Queen Elizabeth Cup. Not to mention, Lei Papale would be the center of attraction as well as the most favored with Christophe as her rider.

Luckily, the race has been held at Hanshin last year, too which leaves me a chance o refer to my notes from last year. Let's take a look.

Have called the race referring to Takaraduka Kinen, it seems (sorry I don't remember what I did, spare me as it's a year ago since I can't even remember what I did last week). I've keyed Lucky Lilac (with some fear) but have cut out Salacia and Loves Only You (!!) possibly, beause I thought they were favored and assume that the payout would be quite small... Loves Only You has won the Breeders' Cup as the first Japanese-born-and-bred horse just yesterday.

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7:24 p.m. I was wrong. I did place my bet on Loves Only You, I'd just cut out Salacia at the last minute because she'd lost 4kg... Somewhat relieved to know that I wasn't so stupid as to leave out Loves Only You.

Anyway, my notes say I should choose "powerful type front runners" since the pace tends to become tighter than Kyoto 2200m and the race itself is likely to become monotonous. Also, horses shortening the distance from their previous races don't seem to perform very well as they usually drop their positions. Besides, horses performing well in longer distance aren't usually powerful monotonous types, they're the type with good instantaneous speed that works as a boost in slow pace races. Those aren't the type of horses that do well on Hanshin 2200m rather, they do better on say, Tokyo 2000m or 2400m.

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6:04 p.m. Checking out the performances of Shuka-sho runners in the past.

In the past 10 years, there were 6 horses finishing within 3rd place in Queen Elizabeth Cup with their previous race being Shuka-sho. Only 2 of them Meisho Mambo and Aventura were Shuka-sho winners. If I extended the border to horses finishing within 3rd place in Shuka-sho, 3 more horses join the list Mozukatchan, Nuovo Record, and Virxina. What they share in common is that they all performed well in the spring classic races except for Aventura, who was a Jungle Pocket descendant in her concentrated stage.

What I want to say is that since 4 Shuka-sho runners out of 6 performed well in the spring classic races, perhaps you won't have to worry about 1st to 3rd place winners of this year's Shuka-sho, if they haven't performed well in the spring classics e.g. Ohka-sho and Oaks. Well, this makes it only harder to handle Akaitorino Musume, though.

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5:35 p.m. The entry for Queen Elizabeth Cup has been closed today. I saw Win Marilyn's name on the list so her trainer must have given her a "go". Some news sources said that she had lagged in her workout which could be assumed as an effect of her elbow inflammation. At one time there were rumors that Win Marilyn might scratch off, but if she's entered that means the trainer decided it was okay, at least at this point.

Have reserached on G1 races held on Hanshin turf 2200m and it seems horses starting from the outmost barrier 8 are doing well at the rate of 29.4% (winning), 29.4% (finishing within 2nd), 35.3% (finishing within 3rd). Barrier 7 and 2 followed with 0% (winning rate), 18.8% (finishing within 2nd), 25.0% (finishing within 3rd), and 9.2% (winning rate), 18.2% (finishing within 2nd), 36.4% (finishing within 3rd), respectively. Note that horses starting from barrier 3 and 4 have never finished within 3rd place in the 7 G1 races held after 2016.

Let's cross our fingers and look forward to the barrier draw tomorrow.

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6:47 p.m. So the barrier draw has been announced as early as this morning, while Sodashi's next challenge was announced yesterday to be Champions' Cup. Think she'll do well on dirt.

Ah, Lei Papale has drawn the inner-most post. That gives her a good reason to take the lead regardless of her rivals. However, if Lune Rouge or Rose Amour insist, the pace could become pretty tight. And if it becomes a tight lap, it might broaden the chance for horsses chaging from the outside like Win Kitos or Akai Ito.

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7:01 p.m. Have judged the race level lower than last year but then assumed the pace to be average to tight. So I don't think horses from lower prize classes could perform well.

I keyed Lei Papale. Yes, I know I have absolutely no taste in surprises nor wit. If Lei Papale takes the lead, Christophe would adjust the pace to an average-tight in order to make their rivals use their stamina while leaving enough for the last 2 furlongs for themselves, that are said to be too long for Lei Papale. A wire-to-wire finish in a while is what I'm expecting.

On the wheel would be Akaitorino Musume, Rambling Alley, Terzetto, Des Ailes and Win Kitos. Have avoided Win Marilyn for her risks.

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5:45 p.m. Sigh. Only sighs are coming out of my mouth. Why didn't Christophe let Lei Papale go? Because he thought he could get over the distance problem by keeping her behind another horse. But then, Lei Papale isn't that type of horse! How many times do I have to say this? She'd give up the race the instant another horse pulled over on the last stretch. She needs to take the lead at an average to tight lap just like Resistencia or Meikei Yell. As a result, Lei Papale got too tense during the first half losing too much stamina for the remaining half.

Stellaria was the third on my score scale - that's why I replaced her for Akaitorino Musume on my trio wheel, while keeping Akaitori on my exacta wheel. I should have keyed her instead of Lei Papale. Wasn't I going to buy 3-year-olds agressively? And if Akaitorino Musume had some risk, wasn't Stellaria the only one to choose? Still, I didn't have Akai Ito nor Cravel on my wheel. Akai Ito scored 10 to be evaluated as the 6th on my score scale, Cravel wasn't even on the list for the score scale.

Turns out that I would have won the race perfectly if the horses that finished 6th to 11th place had slid up to the top. 5 horses need to be diqualified to make that happen.

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6:40 p.m. Had to go down to the ward office to process some documents. Troublesome as usual. Have just returned checking out the entry form for Mile Championship.

I swore to myself to key a 3-year-old this time and there are five 3-year-olds entered for Mile Championship as of today... Of course, Gran Alegria would probably do well though winnng largely relies on whether I could pick up the right 3-year-old or not. The troubling thing is, I have a hunch it's not Schnell Meister.

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2:29 p.m. The reason I'm reluctant with Schnell Meister is because he's an NHK Mile Cup winner who has already performed well in his first challenge in the top category against the older horses (Yasuda Kinen). He's lost in 3rd place behind Gran Alegria by half a length while his weight was 2kg lighter than hers. He had 3 weeks to recover after winning NHK Mile Cup while Gran Alegria had only 2 after winning Victoria Mile Cup. The situation surrounding these two horses would be reversed in Mile Championship.

Additionally, I don't remember an NHK Mile Cup winner that performed well later in their career except for a few. Got curious and actually, went to look them up.There were 4 horses winning NHK Mile Cup and have finished either 1st or 2nd in a G1 race later in the past 10 years, Admire Mars, Aerolithe, Mikki Aisle and Grand Prix Boss. There was only 1 horse that had won Mile Campionship in his later career, Mikki Aisle. Mikki Aisle has challenged Mile Championship twice, his first time losing in a miserable 13th place. Only after he'd struggled and made a come back in the sprint races was he able to perform well in Mile Championship.

Aren't these good enough reasons to make me think twice?

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6:21 p.m. Not that I have any ideas instead of choosing Schnell Meister. The remaining 3-year-olds entered besides Schnell Meister are Grenadier Guards and Danon the Kid. But both have their pros and cons.

Both of them are G1 champions of thei generation, Grenadier Guards winning Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes while Danon the Kid has won Hopeful Stakes. However, those races were held when they were 2 years old and it's hard to put full trust on the results since most horses grow after those two races, mostly during summer.

Well, let me wait until the barrier draw to think some more. Maybe it could bring me some clues.

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6:21 p.m. Sorry, there were two more 3-year-olds Ho O Amazon and Ripresa, I apologize for my error.

Have dug out my notes from last year which I think have a bit of credibility in the sense that last year's amile Championship has also been run on Hanshin turf. According to my notes, Mile Championship is one of those races that repeaters do well. One or more horses performing highly in the previous year (though I don't remember seeing more than 2 horses) tend to finish within 3rd place in the following year e.g. Fiero, Isla Bonita, Persian Knight, Indy Champ, you name it.

For your information, the top 3 horses last year were Gran Alegria, Indy Champ and Admire Mars. That means there are 2 horses eligible this year since Admire Mars has already retired last December, Gran Alegria and Indy Champ.

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6:19 p.m. The barrier draw for Mile Championship has been announced.

My, oh my. I was determined to key a 3-year-old this week but Gran Alegria has drawn an ideal post. If she sank below 4th place, there must be something wrong with her condition although the crew might not say it out loud.

It could become a good draw for Ho O Amazon either if the track becomes soft or the pace becomes tight, both of which are unlikely to happen. Well, he might have a chane if he takes the lead to set the pace himself.

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7:18 p.m. I've said I'd key a 3-year-old however, I'll take it back as have reached a conclusion that there's no way I could choose one horse from all the 3-year-olds.

Will key Gran Alegria. She's drawn an ideal post, and I'm not worried about the 2-weeks interval rumored to be too short. Gran Alegria hs run three G1 races this spring in approximatly 2 months, with her last having only 2 weeks' interval. And many of you probably remember her first spring race Osaka-hai being quite tough. Nevertheless, she performed well enough losing only by a head against Danon Kingly. Situations are different from then so I'm not worried about the interval.

On the wheel would be Ho O Amazon, Schnell Meister, Indy Champ, Catedral, and Danon the Kid. Additionally, I'm thinking of buying exactas keying Gran Alegria on the 2nd place on a wheel of 3-year-olds.

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4:37 p.m. Yes, the payout was little since Gran Alegria has won.

It's a pity that Ryusei and Ho O Amazon dropped tha pace to slow. It wouldn't give Ho O Amazon not even a slight chance to remain in the top 3 because the race would become an instantaneous speed contest, which is exactly why Gran Alegria has won and also why Schnell Meister made it to the 2nd place. If Ho O Amazon had led the race in a tight lap, perhaps Schnell Meister would have missed the podium.

But a win is a win. Let'satisfy ourselves with that for now. The important thing is that we have Japan Cup coming up this weekend. That's when we strike.

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5:43 p.m. Rainy all day feeling blue because I have to go out all day tomorrow.

Have checked out the entry form for Japan Cup and felt even more blue seeing the names of the entrees. There's no way the payout could be bigger than last week... Well, it's a race that rarely goes wild these days unless the track becomes soft or something. Still, it's disappointing.

Hope nobody scratches off from the list, though. I'd feel upset if Makahiki scratches off.

Hold on. Maybe if Kiseki takes the lead at a good pace, things could become a bit interesting.

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7:48 p.m. Have been out all day and just got back very tired from the trip.

Have briefly checked the entry form but looks like there hasn't been any changes. Well, not that I see. Think I'll start on my research tomorrow, maybe after I get back from my usual visit to the clinic 40 minutes' walk away.

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7:17 p.m. Since it's the most concerning, I've launched on the research for horses running Aegentina Republic Cup in their previous races.

In the past 10 years, the only horse that performed well in Japan Cup with their previous race being Argentina Republic Cup was Cheval Grand. Cheval Grand was a characteristic horse performing well in longer distance and on courses with an uphill. As a Heart's Cry descendant, he performed well with distance extension, in full-field races or on soft track. He finished 3rd in Japan Cup 2016 (that's when he'd run Argentina Republic Cup in his previous race) starting from the outomost post, though became a champion horse in the following year starting from the inner-most post number 1.

The concerning thing is that Cheval Gran is the only well-performing case. This could be suggesting Argentina Republic Cup might not be a good step for Japan Cup. Bad news for Authority.

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6:09 p.m. The barrier draw has been announced for Japan Cup. Looks like no one scratched off, phew.

Ha! JRA has done it again. Contrail in post number 2! It seems they tried to please, please who? Themselves? They think Contrail could win if he draws post number 1 or 2. Remember Tenno-sho? Inner posts have the advantage even for Deep Impact descendants (and other horses who don't like to get squashed in the field) because courses on Tokyo is wider. It doesn't look like it's going to be a tight pace which means it's likely to become another instantaneous speed contest Deep Impact descendants are good at.

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6:24 p.m. I thought no one had scratched off but have realized that Curren Bouquetd'or was nowhere to be seen... She was rumored to be in bad shape which turned out to be true, I guess. I wonder how Uberleben is? It won't be easy coming back from Shuka-sho's huge loss, but tokyo 2400 is where she's performed her best after all.

I've been thinking all along that Japan Cup would finish with a sound result and small payout however, if Kiseki takes the lead and pulls the race in a tight lap like last year, things might change drastically, although I'm still doubtful of outer post starters.

There's still some more time so I'll see what I can do.

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7:43 p.m. Have tried to think of a Plan B in case the pace became tight though couldn't come up with a different conclusion.

Will key Shahryar on the 1st place of trifectas. Our work-out squad evaluated Contrail and Authority bettter than Shahryar, but they're the ones who overestimated Lei Papale in Queen Elizabeth Cup so I wouldn't mind. Have said Shahryar all along, will just believe in myself.

On the 2nd place would be Contrail and Uberleben, on the 3rd place Contrail, Grand Glory, Aristoteles, and Uberleben. Am thinking of buying exactas of Shahryar to Grand Glory and Aristoteles for insurance. I'm trying to squeeze in Sanrei Pocket somehow however, currently there aren't any room left for him.

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5:39 p.m. I've had enough. Wished Kiseki would go like last year (though I knew last year's tight pace was because the rider had lost control) to stir things up and lead the race at a tight pace but it didn't happen.

When Aristoteles took the lead, my hope rose a bit then dropped down to hell when he didn't speed up. Too slow, too slow! It became a perfect race for Contrail and Authority. I'd cut out Authority in hopes the pace to get faster and they pay me back with a 62.2 seconds for the first 1000 meters...

I do pay my respect to Yuichi Fukunaga, though I won't admit Contrail as a great horse despite his triple crown. Not to mention Shahryar has been erased from the same list. Great horses win regardless of the distance, course or the pace.

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6:48 p.m. I did bet on place for Shahryar as well as win, but as you already know the payout was very little so I'd spent too much than I got back. Lately, G1 races have been finishing with the top 3 or 4 favored probaly because of the blank 4-year-olds. This might make JRA happy however, it makes me unhappy.

Now Japan Cup is already history, should focus on the remaining races Champions' Cup and Arima Kinen though I know Arima Kinen won't payout much either. It would finish with the top 3 again, Titleholder, Efforia and Chrono Genesis. There's a slight chance Efforia could lose below 4th place depending on the other competitors and the barrier draw or the pace. Still, that outcome would be rare I guess.

So what to do is to focus on Champions' Cup which I haven't won in my life. Well, think I'll review my past results to start off. If I could figure out where I'm getting things wrong, maybe I could win this year. After all, there's always the first time just like Sodashi entering fer first dirt G1.

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6:33 p.m. As I reviewed my past results, it transpired that I've won Champions' Cup once in 2019. It just slipped out of my mind since I only won a trio and the payout was small unlike that of trifecta.

Speaking from conclusion, I should be able to win if I key the right horse, place my bet on trios not trifectaas and don't forget to buy the front runners starting from outer posts. Looking at the past 10 years of results for Champions' Cup including the ones that were held at Hanshin, at least one from the top 3 favored horses (all of them in 2019) are finishing within 3rd place every year.

It's pretty clear what I should do now, I reckon.

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Caterpillar