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2021/ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

4/01  Aspect of Favority

6:22 p.m. Let's look at Osaka-hai from the aspect of favority today.

Many of you might already know that the most favored horse have performed highly in this race. They finish within 3rd place at the rate of 80%. Not very welcoming for me. The second favored follow closely behind by the rate of 70%. Though the interesting part is that the rate for the 3rd favored in win odds drops to only 10%, while the rate for horses favored from 4th to 6th is 36.7%.

The 3rd favored horses also seem to perform poorly in the rate to finish first and second at 0%, respectively. What it means is that 3rd favored horses haven't wwon this race nor finished 2nd, at least for the past 10 years! This deserves a bit of attention, don't you think? On the other hand, horses favored 4th to 6th have a wiining rate of 6.7%, and 20% rate of finishing within 2nd place. If Salios stays the 3rd favored, he could be the one with a rope around his neck.

The End

Caterpillar

4/02  Hearts' Cry Descendants

6:04 p.m. But then, Heart's Cry descendants generally perform better when the required condition leans toward physical toughness, such as large-field races, high pace, soft track condition. So maybe I should keep Salios?

And the barrier draw had already been announced while I was wondering.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Mozu Bello
2Salios
3Ardently
4Bravas
5Persian Knight
6Wagnerian
7Contrail
8Lei Papale
9Crescendo Love
10Cadenas
11Happy Grin
12Gran Alegria
13Admire Virgo

Looks like Lady Luck won't be kind to Salios. Horses starting from post number 2 haven't either won nor come in 2nd in the past 10 years. Twice they've finished 3rd place, the autumn Tenno-sho winner Tosen Jordan and Wagnerian winning the D'erby.

The End

Caterpillar

4/03  Tried to

8:05 p.m. I've tried. Tried to somehow find a dark horse that might add a bit of interest but in vain.

There's nothing I could do but to key Contrail on a wheel of Salios, Lei Papale, and Gran Alegria. Or perhaps I could change the key to Lei Papale? Naw, that would be nonsense considering the risk. Even if the track condition becomes yielding, I'm afraid horses like Ardently won't stand a chance.

The best resistence I could put up will be to bet on trifectas. Will consider which horse to prior by tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

4/04  I Swear

3:54 p.m. I've seen the results of Hanshin 9th race and decided, it was going to be a difiicult race for Deep Impact descendants because the turf condition seemed very tough. I'd changed my key to Salios although I'd been skeptical about his potential. And replaced Lei Papale with Mozu Bello considering the track condition.

Today I swear I will never bet on Salios, never again in my life.

The End

Caterpillar

4/05  Bad Pattern

7:19 p.m. One bad pattern I've been experiencing is changing my call, especially the key horse at the last minute and losing as a result. This must be avoided in order to cut my loss. Yes, I think it's important to cut your loss as much as possible. Well, Buffet says so.

Why do I change my thought-out call at the last minute in the first place? Because I'm not confident. I get driven by anxiety and choose the wrong behavior. So I think, how can I prevent being driven by fear and anxiety so I could keep cool and believe in the conclusion I, myself have reached through effort? There seems to be two stages in this action process; stage one, feeling anxiety and stage two, making the action of changing my call. If I could come up with an effective way to handle my feelings and behavior in these two stages, I believe I could improve my results.

The End

Caterpillar

4/06  Quick Review

7:10 p.m. Leaving the improvement of my behavior aside for now, I'd like to take a quick review on Osaka-hai.

As you can see from the results, Hanshin course 2000m meritted those who went up front except for Mozu Bello who started from an inner post and was good at running muddy tracks. The pace was quite tight considering the stamina-consuming track condition, but front runners tend to do well in a monotonous race. Even if the pace is tight and tough, that's better for them than having speed horses breaking from the field here and there.

1800m or 2000m on Hanshin track consumes a lot of energy. The stamina-eating course cannot be conquered just by spontaneous speed. It requires power and speed, even if a bit monotonous. Contrail, apparantly ran out of stamina although he had the supplements of shortening the distance or freshness. And unfortunately, the loss of Osaka-hai will leave a question mark on his further career.

The End

Caterpillar

4/07  Back to Improving

6:02 p.m. And now back to improving my negative behavior. In order to get out of my bad habbit, I need to learn to deal with my fears and anxieties since I might be able to hit the brake on my unwanted behavior, if I could handle my feelings properly.

Dealing with fear and anxieties... woah, what an ultimate topic! Many prestigious experts have suggested many different ways to conquer fear and anxieties and I know I'm not one of them. However, every one of us are different and I believe there must be a way that suits me.

So I'm starting from examining my feelings. When and why do I feel scared? Anxious? How do I react to each feeling? Then I will have to analyze them, breaking them into component parts, visualize them to see how these feelings are related. Gosh, I've got a long way ahead!

The End

Caterpillar

4/08  Gonna Take Time

5:42 p.m. The barrier draw ha been announced before my research started. Well of course, it's the classics. Will have to leave my behavior improving project aside for now. It's gonna take a long time anyway.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Stripe
2Fine Rouge
3Blue Bird
4Sodashi
5Akaitorino Musume
6Stutti
7Kukuna
8Meikei Yell
9Enthusiasm
10Art de Vivre
11Ginestra
12Yoka Yoka
13Elizabeth Tower
14Minnie Isle
15Shigeru Pink Ruby
16Songline
17Ho O Ixelles
18Satono Reinas

Favored horses have spread wide from Sodashi's inner post to Satono Reinas's outmost post. Horses starting from outer posts are unexpectedly doing pretty well so I'm not worried about Reinas. It might also have been good for Meikei Yell too, rather than drawing outer posts since he horse could become uncpontrollable again especially, without Yutaka. Sodashi, I'm not sure but perhaps a bit more outer post would have been better.

Don't want to linger on so just a quick review from my notes. The most favored in win odds have finished within 3rd place at the rate of 50% in the past 10 years. Most of them are Hanshin JF winners, though if the horse has run Tulip-sho you shouldn't trust the ones that have won it too. JF winners perform better when they've lost Tulip-sho with a slight gap while they were the most favored in the race meaning, they have saved up their energy. If the horse has won both races, it would be better to choose a horse with a short career (specifically, within 5 races including Ohka-sho) otherwise the horse needs to have easily won all races with a good gap (specifically, more than a 1.5 lengths). And those races all need to be slower than an average pace in order not to leave too much damage in the horse.

The End

Caterpillar

4/09  My Notes

6:35 p.m. Racking my sleep-deprived brain to work on my research. My notes tell me to prioritize the step races so I will follow my instruction.

Tulip-sho winners usually don't do very well unless they are backed up with high potential of racing results and little left-over damage. Meikei Yell can be judged to have high potential and the loss of Hanshin JF should be unregarded as the horse lost control. Since the horse has difficulty in harmonizing, it might be up to the jockey. Elizabeth Tower might have been advantaged by the track condition in Tulip-sho meaning, that leaves a question mark this time.

In order to perform well in Ohka-sho, it's best not to work too hard in Tulip-sho, says my notes. After all, even Apapane has lost in 2nd place in Tulip-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

4/10  Sorry to have Kept You Waiting

7:57 p.m. Sorry to have kept you waiting, I've finished my call for Ohka-sho.

As usual, I've thought out the possibilities I could think of and decided to key Sodashi. I was torn between Meikei Yell, but it's a gamble with this horse let alone with Yokoyama Sr. in the saddle, so I took Sodashi. Still, this horse definitely has high potential, high enough to win a G1 only if she could keep her rhythm. So there may be a scene for her to steal our breaths.

On the wheel would be Fine Rouge, Akaitorino Musume, Meikei Yell, Shigeru Pink Ruby, and Satono Reinas. The track condition of Hanshin turf is firm and fast and high performers will need the last boost. Good luck to you all!

The End

Caterpillar

4/11  Cheers!

8:10 p.m. Meikei Yell has hit a bad start to ruin the rest of the race. I don't know why but Yokoyama Sr. wasn't pushing her on the home stretch, he didn't even look like he was using his whip. Maybe the horse ran out of stamina, or maybe she didn't. Whichever it was, I wish the rider could have at least pretended that he hadn't given up the race. We're betting money, you know.

So we couldn't see Meikei Yell stealling our breaths (well, she did in a different way, though), I learned my lesson from last week and didn't change my key horse to win a trio and place. The payout wasn't much but it always feels good when you win. Raising a toast now with beeeeeeer. Cheers, Sodashi! Cheers, everyone!

The End

Caterpillar

4/12  Seeking the Outcome

4:42 p.m. Reviewing Ohka-sho while seeking the outcome of the Japanese Oaks.

It was a record finish but the lap wasn't so tight, rather average. Though the track was firm and fast so the race became monotonous which advantaged Sodashi and other front runners. Akaitorino Musume might have done better if not for the position loss when Meikei Yell lost control and bolted to the top. Satono Reinas performed quite well actually, finishing the fastest in the last 3 furlongs, though she failed at the start which was critical just like Kukuna. Starting from the outmost post, I understand it wasn't easy for the jockey.

The extension in distance to 2400m I think, is not welcomed for Sodashi judging from her pedigree. She performs better when the lap becomes tighter and that probaly won't happen in the Japanese Oaks. However, she might not lose big thanks to her outstanding potential among this generation.

The next race could become the biggest chance for Satono Reinas to beat Sodashi given that Reinas get a good draw and a good start.

The End

Caterpillar

4/13  Start Thinking

7:13 p.m. I shall start thinking about Satsuki-sho rather than the Japanese Oaks more than a month ahead. Since my notes tells me to value the step races for classic races, will start from looking at each trial races.

Kyodo Tsushin-hai winners performs highly only when this race has been the first after a break and the winning horse has never lost below 3rd place until then. Efforia, currently the most favored fits this description perfectly, so I can't cut him out.

As for today's second favored in win odds Danon the Kid, there are 2 Yayoi-sho's 3rd place winners performing well in the past 10 years. What they share in common is that they both had achievements in G3 finishing either first or second, although they didn't do well in either Asahi-hai FS nor Yayoi-sho. Danon the Kid seems to clear this meaning, I can't cut him out either...

The End

Caterpillar

4/14  Spring Stakes

7:12 p.m. Let's move on to Spring Stakes. Spring Stakes winners don't do well when they are tired. Because Spring Stakes is the trial race with the shortest interval, winning horses that have experienced more than 5 races (including Spring Stakes) in distances longer than 1800m tend to perform poorly in Satsuki-sho.

Victipharus, this year's Spring Stakes winner has only run 3 races including Spring Stakes, although the 3 races were all 1800m. Therefore, he seems to clear the qualifications of my notes. However, he's won Spring Stakes with some advantages, I'm afraid he might have some damage.

The End

Caterpillar

4/15  The Lucky Post

5:57 p.m. Following last week, the barrier draw for Satsuki-sho has been announced on Thursday.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Admire Hadar
2Lupus Tesoro
3Stella Veloce
4Elusive Panther
5Victipharus
6Yoho Lake
7Efforia
8Danon the Kid
9Lagom
10Chevalier Rose
11Deep Monster
12World Revival
13Ttileholder
14Asamano Itazura
15Gratias
16Red Belle Aube

The top two favored in win odds Efforia and Danon the Kid are settled to each other in post numbers 7 and 8, while Victipharus drew 5 and Deep Monster 11. Efforia can be said to have drawn the lucky post, since horses starting from post number 7 has finished within 3rd place 6 times in the past 10 years.

The End

Caterpillar

4/16  Concerning...

7:21 p.m. Have been working on my research dutifully. The weather and the track condition is pretty much concerning, though as I can't quite grasp the track condition of current Nakayama turf.

Last Saturday, it seemed like it was power-consuming and front runners did well. But then, the situation changed drastically on Sunday with off-pace horses charging in. Apparently, the inside of the last stretch seems ruined because jockeies are avoiding that part of the course. This might mean horses taking out on the outside might have the advantage however, it could change depending on the track condition while rain is expected throughout tomorrow.

Gosh, I wonder who's raising my bar?

The End

Caterpillar

4/17  Really Hard

8:17 p.m. This year's Satsuki-sho was really hard to call as everyone has been saying. But I've come to a conclusion. Well, at least for now.

I will key Danon the Kid although horses from yayoi-sho haven't done very well lately. The horse has high potential and the loss in Yayoi-sho I think, can still be recovered. Plus, Yuga Kawada has a secret weapon. On the wheel would be Stella Veloce, Efforia, Lagom, Gratias, and Red Belle Aube.

Personally, I think the track condition suits Stella Veloce or Lagom. However, Stella Veloce has the risk in distance. As for Lagom, I just din't have the guts to key him. Gratias also might do well on this track though I didn't have the guts to key him either. Efforia could be a great horse and if he wins Satsuki-sho, I think he could win a triple crown. Still it's a huge risk that he hasn't experienced a full-field race. Soft track won't bother him,

The End

Caterpillar

4/18  Some Time to Recover

8:40 p.m. Feeling regretful and looking like it's going to take some time to recover.

Have slept late until noon so had to hurry on with everything. I was beginnning to feel uneasy with Danon the Kid since he'd run Yayoi-sho after Hopeful Stakes. The horse could be tired. While washing the laundry, it struck me that Efforia was the one with the least risk. However, I'd been determined not to change my key horse, so I didn't change and look what happened... I'd definitely need to get back to my behavior improving project. Need to make clear in what case I should change my decision and what case I shouldn't, specifically.

As for Danon the Kid, the horse looked quite tense before the race with perspiration. He couldn't harmonize even with the help of the soft track condition, to run out of stamina in the end. Not sure if he ran out of physical stamina or concentration, but a winning horse has to have both. Apparently, Yayoi-sho was an unnecessary race.

The End

Caterpillar

4/19  Reviewing Behavior

7:00 p.m. I've tried reviewing my behavior. I've changed my key horse and done blunders a number of times, all of them driven by worry and anxiety in the past. Because I hadn't been confident enough on the day of the race, I've got worried by track condition or the horse's weight loss or favority. Driven by the fear of losing, I'd changed my key horse and failed.

So what exactly made me act to change the key? What triggered my action? Bias. I was biased because I feared I won't win and clung on to subjective assumption, impression and intuition. Later on after I've cooled my head, I would realize the stupid decision and mentally beat myself to hell from guilt and shame.

What shall I do to avoid such foolish behavior? Rely on facts. Make my decisions based on evidence, not assumptions. To practice this thoroughly, I ought to make a check list or something to visualize the actions I want to take.

The End

Caterpillar

4/20  More Specific Way

6:50 p.m. Must come up with a more specific way to visualize my wanted behavior. Something more specific yet can take in intuitively... images would be good. If I could put the concept down into images, it might work.

Meanwhile Cow and I have discussed Tenno-sho spring. We couldn't think of much besides Aristoteles, Curren Bouquet d'Or, Deep Bond and World Premiere. Yuichi Fukunaga is riding World Premiere replacing injured Yutaka, by the way. If Diastima takes the lead, the pace would become average or slow which only advantages horses that have performed well in their previous races.

Wonder how Aristoteles is recovering?

The End

Caterpillar

4/21  Entering D'erby

6:39 p.m. Titleholder, Gratias and Yoho Lake have all been announced to enter D'erby. On the other hand, Ohka-sho 2nd place winner Satono Reinas has been announced to enter D'erby instead of Oaks while Ohka-sho 4th place winner Akaitorino Musume is entering Oaks. So Christophe have secured 2 good horses, eh?

I doubt Reinas would win the D'erby even with the advantage of the 2kg lighter weight she will carry. Efforia hasn't put his cards on the table yet, you know. He isn't an easy horse to beat. If Satono Reinas can't beat Sodashi in mile races, I don't think she can beat Efforia.

Oops! Gotta get back to work! I need to finish it up and make time to think of my own behavior project.

The End

Caterpillar

4/22  A Wee Break

5:39 p.m. This weekend the G1 series is having a wee break and trial races will be held instead.

Not much interested in Flora Stakes which is a trial race for the Japanese Oaks. Milers' Cup is a step race for Yasuda Kinen, though the names on the entry list is as lame as Tenno-sho spring. Perhaps I'll pass this week as I have my own project to do.

Still, I will keep a look-out on Milers' Cup since the results would give me clues to winning Yasuda Kinen. Would also take a glance at Hong Kong's Queen Elizabeth the Second Cup. Wonder what's become of Hishi Iguazu by the way?

The End

Caterpillar