6:48 p.m. Let's get down to the review of Champions' Cup. It will be run on Chukyo dirt 1800m which is a pretty characteristic setting that not every horse can do well on. For this reason, Champions' Cup is welcome to repeaters.

One or more top 3 finishers from the previous year tend to do well in Champions' Cup. Sound True, Gold Dream, or Inti have been such. Keeping that in mind, the horses that have the chance to become this year's repeater is either Chuwa Wizard or Inti or perhaps both.

Added to this, outer post starters don't do well unless they are front runners, so horses starting from posts outer than post number 12 should be unaccounted for unless they are front runners like Inti. This is one point I've missed several times. Shall be careful this year.

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Caterpillar

6:28 p.m. The barrier draw for Champions' Cup has been announced. Let me run through the draw before my zoom meeting starts.

Sodashi has drawn the inner-most post. This might not be good for her since it's her first dirt race and many horses don't like to have sand kicked into their faces. However, looking at it from a different aspect it could be a good draw since Kurofune descendants tend to perform better when starting from inner posts. Chuwa Wizard the most favored has drawn post number 13 but it might not be a problem if he could sweep up the outside like last year starting from post number 12.

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Caterpillar

6:30 p.m. Gathering my notes to squeeze out my call.

Have met a precious information about the pedigree background for high performers, though. If I take that into account, Sodashi might do pretty well if not win the race. Sunrise Nova also meets this condition however, I'm feeling quite suspicious since the horse has failed twice already.

Let me get down to work now, rather than worry about trival things. Move, move.

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Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. I've suffered. Every horse has something to be concerned of. Inti hasn't been performing well lately while Chuwa Wizard probably isn't in his perfect shape after the fracture in Teioh-sho. This means both horses that are potential as repeaters have problems.

Just because the potential repeaters aren't fully reliable, that doesn't give T O Keynes a passport to victory, when he couldn't even beat the troubled Chuwa Wizard in JBC. My Casino Fountain is sure to be targeted if/when he takes the lead. Troubled.

I didn't want to but I'm setteling for keying Sodashi. Am not sure if she could handle her first dirt G1 well enough, though she still have the advantage of the inner post and the 3kg lighter weight. On the wheel would be Inti, T O Keynes, Sunrise Hope, Clincher, and Chuwa Wizard.

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Caterpillar

5:40 p.m. Sodashi has lost miserably in 12th place. This is why I wanted to keep her on the wheel rather than key her. I'm crying sour grapes, I know.

The repeater turned out to be Chuwa Wizard, not Inti which I guessed right with Chuwa Wizard's place though it didn't bring me back much not to mention. Chuwa Wizard might have another chance next year, depending on his condition but T O Keynes may be more likely since he's beat Chuwa Wizard by 6 lengths. Don't think Another Truth has a chance, well at least not at the moment however, you never know. After all, he has Sound True as his sibling.

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Caterpillar

6:27 p.m. Realized I've made mistakes on a lot of points in calling this year's Champions' Cup.

First of all, I didn't key the potential repeater Chuwa Wizard although I had figured the high average in their performance. Second, I was too conscious about the pedigree background which only confused me. Third, I had chosen horses that lost too big intheir previous races like Clincher, instead of horses that did better like Another Truth. Fourth, I misjudged the pace. There may be more but these are about all I could think of for now.

It looks as though I've done a terrible blunder yet again however, I try to think that these materials would help me win next year or the one after the next.

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Caterpillar

6:15 p.m. Have finished my review for Champions' Cup. It's time to start thinking about Hanshin Juvenile Fillies held this weekend.

It's a juvenile race which means all the entered horses are fresh. So what divides the high-performers and the others would be each horse's potential and whether or not they have left-over damage from their previous races.

Added to this, the barrier draw, the turf condition and the pace would give advantage to some horses resulting in a boost.

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Caterpillar

7:21 p.m. Reviewing my notes for Hanshin Juvenile Fillies.

It seems imporatant to judge the level of the race correctly at the beginning. Well, this is the usual procedure. Then, I need to guess the pace right in order to decide which type of horses have the advantage, the speed type power horses or the instantaneous type. This would be the cru of the call.

There's another thing I noticed while looking at the past 10 years of results. Post number 11 has been doing well. Horses starting from post number 11 has finished within 3rd place for 6 times in the past 10 years. That's quite an average.

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Caterpillar

7:11 p.m. And the question is, how should I judge the level of the race? As it's the first G1 for all entrees, should I count the number of grade horse winners? Or should I refer to the winning time?

I've turned to the winning record when comparing the level between 2 or more generations however, it's hard to compare 18 horses by their winning time while they've been running different races.

Have counted grade race winners entering the race this year which totaled to 4 but that doesn't necessarily mean this year's Hanshin JF is high level, does it?

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Caterpillar

6:25 p.m. The barrier draw for Hanshin Juvenile Fillies has been announced. So here we go.

Namura Clair has drawn the inner-most post. It might not be an advantage for the horse (unless it becomes a tight lap) as she seems to do better when she's not squashed between horses. Tana the Wing, Kimiwa Queen, and Sternatia, also.

On the other hand, horses that drew posts outer than post number 9 might be advantaged in the sense they wouldn't have to get in between horses however, it might backfire against lukewarm front-runners if the pace gets tight. BTW, this year's lucky horse that drew post 11 was Lovely Your Eyes, for your information.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. Have suffered again, puzzled by the results of today's races at Hanshin. It looked like a firm, fast track although the course has been used longer than the annual season.

One specialist have mentioned the current power-consuming turf condition of Hanshin is perfect for Heart's Cry descendants. Indeed, Cravache d'Or has finished 2nd in Rigel Stakes however, the winning record was pretty fast with the last 3 furlongs finishing in 32 to 33 seconds. Is this really power-consuming?

Eventually, I settled for Circle of Life for my key horse as the other two from the top 3 favored seemed too risky to me. On the wheel would be Namura Clair, Sternatia, Lovely Your Eyes, Water Navillera, and Namur.

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Caterpillar

6:14 p.m. Congrats, everyone! And this time I'm satisfied with the payout (for the first time this season). Still, I wish JRA would have sold betting tickets to win the top 5 horses as they do in Hong Kong.

Speaking of Hong Kong, Yuichi Fukunaga nad Pixie Knight have been involved in a terrible crash in Hong Kong Sprint. News source says Yuichi is conscious although having clavicle fracture and Pixie Knight also seems to have little or no physical damage. However, 2 horses are said to have been euthanized due to the accident. I send my deepest respect and condolences. They must have worked hard to enter this top category race. Rest in peace.>

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Caterpillar

5:22 p.m. Feeling good, have just checked out the entrees for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes. There seems to be only two grade race winners enetered this year.

I've also checked out the past 10 years of results, though post number 11 wasn't doing well as in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. Strange, when the two races are held consecutively on the same course and distance. Rather, inner posts have been performing well for the past 4 years.

Not sure what is causing this well, at least not at this point, but there must be a reason whether I could figure it out or not.

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Caterpillar

6:47 p.m. Think I've caught a glimpse of how Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes works. If what I'm thinking is right, perhaps I may be able to figure out the right horse to pick.

As there are more step grade races than fillies, Asahi-hai tend to have more than 3 grade winners entered annually. These grade races become a double-edged sword for young horses. They are efficient to add up prize money to enter Asahi-hai when won, but leave damage. It is fairly important to identify whether these grade step race winners have left-over damage or not in order to decide the level of Asahi-hai. If the grade winners cannot perform highly due to damage, then the race level will drop and chances will expand for lower class horses to perform well.

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Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. When taking in account the left-over damage of grade race winners, there's one entree that seems to be risky - Serifos.

Although he's the most favored in expected win odds as of today, his race results make me wonder about his performance in Asahi-hai. Serifos has not only won two grade races already but in a row. Many of you might think that proves the horse's high potential to which I agree however, performing highly consistently is a double-edge sword with damage as I've mentioned. The gap between Serifos and the runner-up in his past two races are getting smaller and the horse has never experienced a full-field race. To me, such things are concernng.

Since 2014 when Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes has changed its course to Hanshin, there has been 3 Daily-hai winners that finished within 3rd placee in Asahi-hai. But there's never been a Daily-hai winner that won another grade race before that. Just for your informaton, since there's aways the first time.

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Caterpillar

5:42 p.m. The entry has been closed for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes and this year it seems to be run with 15 horses. I'm suspecting this might be causing the difference between Hanshin JF.

Hanshin Juvenile Fillies are run with 18 horses in most cases. As a matter of fact, there was only one year 2019 when hanshin JF has been run with less than 18 horses in the past 10 years. Whereas Asahi-hai has been run in full-field only twice in the past 10 years, of which the oldest two years were run on Nakayama. The last four years have been run with either 15 or 16 horses. This coincides with the years when inner post starters have been doing well.

The difference in the number of horses running may seem small, but I think it could largely affect the quality of the race. I mean, what if a speed horse has drawn the 18th post? I've been calling this race for years as the 2nd Hanshin JF however, have finally came to think I should look at it differently.

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Caterpillar

6:19 p.m. The barrier draw for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes has been announced while I was out and got hit by the rain, so let's take a look.

Serifos has drawn an inner post which generally is effective to raise the performance of Daiwa Major descendants however, it might not be so good for this horse considering the damage he might have from winning two grade race in a row. I'll check the track condition again tomorrow, but outer posts could be a disadvantage regardless of each horse's strong points.

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Caterpillar

8:17 p.m. Sorry it took me so long, I've suffered even more than last week.

The results of today's Hanshin races made me wonder about horses starting from outer posts. High performers starting from outer posts today seemed to be limited to the instantaneous type with the last boost, not the front runners. But then, there were too many front runners which troubled me.

In the end, I had to settle for Geoglyph to key because keying Serifos was too risky. Don't have much confidence though am putting him on a wheel of Al Naseem, Serifos, Danon Scorpion, Purpur Ray, and Do Deuce.

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Caterpillar

5:54 p.m. Aaaarrrrrgh! It was close! Only if I'd keyed the right horse!!

Actually, Danon Scorpion had scored the highest on my score scale, but I couldn't sum up the courage to key him because I wasn't sure the pace would become tight and I'd thought the horse performs better in a smaller-field race. And yet I couldn't key Yutaka's Do Deuce either since he was a Heart's Cry descendant who performs better in a tougher race. Though come to think of it, I should have keyed Do Deuce as the pace was sure to become tighter than his previous race which means it would give him advantage of his strong point.

Well, at least I'm happy for "the Legend" Yutaka Take for winnng this race to leave only Hopeful Stakes before completing all JRA G1 races. Still, I wish JRA had sold me a quintet betting ticket as I've been saying all along.

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Caterpillar

5:24 p.m. Okay, I've finished the review of Asahi-hai. Mind refreshed, let's move on to Arima Kinen. My hopes rose a bit when I heard Stella Veloce was entering but I was a fool.

I take my hat off. It's a four or at best, five-horse race. There's nothing I could do. So far Efforia has nothing I could call as risk. If I'm forced to say, he does have a little mental damage from Tenno-sho as it was a close match between Contrail and he hadn't gone up front. Though that's close to nothing with a 7-week interval, more than enough time to recover. Besides, the damage won't surface unless Arima Kinen becomes a tough race which is very unlikely to happen.

The horse would perform well whether Soshina bets on him or not.

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Caterpillar

7:50 p.m. Arima Kinen's pace rarely becomes tight.

2019 was a tight lap race though that was because Aerolithe has taken the lead from an outer post. It was the last race for Aerolithe who has never run a long distance race in her career. Maybe it was just to bring the spirit up.

Have looked through the entrees of Arima Kinen in search for a horse like Aerolithe. If Panthalassa takes the lead, perhaps the pace might not become slow considering the lap he clocked in his previous race, Fukushima Kinen. However, the horse has never run long distance over 2400m and it's surely not going to be his last race. So it's likely that Panthalassa would want to keep the pace at an average in order to perform well. Enough reason to give Efforia a solid ground.

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Caterpillar

6:57 p.m. I've tried seeking for a dark horse.

There were horses like Admire Monarch or To the World that rose up from the ashes of huge loss in tehir previous races like a phoenix, maybe there could be such horses hiding among the entrees. However, these horses had reasons to perform well and unfortunately, I couldn't find any from this year's competitors that might become the next phoenix.

All I could do now is to wait for tomorrow's barrier draw starting from around 6:30 p.m.

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Caterpillar

6:57 p.m. All right, the barrier draw is out.

Looks like there's been another set-up. Why else would all the odds-on favorite concentrate in the middle? Well, how the horses are lined up suggests a tight lap although as I mentioned earlier, Arima Kinen rarely becomes a tight-lapped race. Just to keep in mind that there's a chance.

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Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. The judgement of pace would be quite difficult. Personally, I think it would b an average pace for now. Though I have to keep in mind the possibility of a slow or tight lap. Would have to decide eventually, after checking the track condition tomorrow, but I have work in the afternoon and would pretty much be drained so am not sure wheher I have the energy left to keep a cool head.

Will do the best I can at any rate. After all, Arima Kinen would be the Grand Prix race to wrap up the autumn season (not Hopeful Stakes). Yes, we've come to the crunch, now is the moment to give all you've got.

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Caterpillar

8:06 p.m. I'm drained as expected. And despite all my efforts and struggle to fight fatigue, I've come to a conclusion which is quite uniteresting. Will apologize beforehand.

I'm keying Efforia on the first place on a wheel of trifectas with Stella Veloce 2nd, Deep Bond, Win Kiitos, Chrono Genesis on the 3rd. Also, will put insurance on another wheel with Stella Veloce on the 1st, Efforia on 2nd, and Deep Bond, Win Kiitos, Chrono Genesis on the 3rd. There's little chance for Efforia to lose below 4th place I reckon, unless there's an accident.

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Caterpillar

10:34 p.m. I wish Mirco would have broke the field taking the inner course, not charge from the outside. If he'd taken the course Chrono Genesis did, perhaps I might have won trifecta. I know it's wishful thinking and I know I shouldn't ask for too much, but I just had to say it out loud.

Luckily, I've added exactas keying Deep Bond in the 2nd at the last minute which made my day. As they say, all is well that ends well.

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Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. Personally, I'd like to finish my autumn season with the win of Arima Kinen however, two more G1 races are still going to be held before year-end. I'm not going to dig in, but let's see if I could give you a rough estimate of which horse might perform well in Hopeful Stakes held tomorrow.

Similar to Arima Kinen, outer posts don't seem to be doing well in this race, so the target should be limited to inner post starters, I guess. The pace may vary from slow to an average lap. That limits the high-performers to horses that could both take a good position up front and have outstanding instantaneous speed.

Have scanned the entry form. Would probably key Killer Ability if I were to buy beting tickets. His previous race Hagi Stakes's winner, Danon Scorpion has already proved this horse could do well in upper class. On the wheel would be Command Line, Justin Palace, Crowned Magic, Fidele, and Ask Wild More (to raise Yutaka's motivation a bit).

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Caterpillar

5:20 p.m. Have been out to a convenience store to exchange my plain New Year postcards to inkjet printer postcards since the store staff had mistaken yesterday. Have to print them later.

I've missed watching Hopeful Stakes on time because I was out so have just checked the results and the video, only to learn that I've lost although it was pretty close. Killer Ability has performed well as I'd expected however, Fidele couldn't reach 3rd place. I should have noticed Lagulf had a long interval and prioritized him instead. After all, I'd known that inner posts had the advantage. Lucky I wasn't buying betting tickets. If I were, I probably couldn't sleep tonight.

As for Tokyo Dai-shoten running tomorrow, I haven't decided yet whether to buy betting tickets or not. If I am, I'll buy Omega Perfume, Nonkono Yume, and Sunrise Nova.

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Caterpillar

6:11 p.m. I've bought betting tickets. Have added Another Truth and Westerlund on a trio wheel keying Omega Perfume. The result, you already know.

I was going to let Tokyo Dai-shoten through since I've won Arima Kinen and wanted to end this year in a happy mood, but just couldn't fight the urge to buy betting tickets. Will be a good caterpillar from now and quietly face my task of writing and sending New Year greeting cards.

Darn, you wait and see. I'll win Kinpai.

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Caterpillar

6:31 p.m. Although delayed than usual, the New Year greeting cards have been safely sent and here we are facing another year-end. Of course the true year-end id tomorrow, but I'm finally having the time to feel the end of an eventful year closing in.

Eventful, in the sense I had to move 3 times in one year, lifestyle changing 3 times in a year (with a terrible diarrhea in between) was enough to get me fully confused, unstable and exhausted. Still, I did the best with calling races and I think I did better than last year. Well, that will have to wait some more until I check my results for the year later on, to be precise.

Am planning to enjoy my year-end though I already have some horses from each Kinpai in mind. Anyway, I'm wondering why Stella Veloce is entered?

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Caterpillar

6:14 p.m. So here I am looking back on my G1 race results.

Out of 24 G1 races run this year, I've won 12 races (including the ones that ended in bigger expenditure than won money) and lost 12. As for the balance, have spent 102,000 yen and won 106,080 yen. Not a bad result considering my winning average hovering somewhere around .230 to .240 in 2020.

Must take a closer look into it though it seems I'm losing particular races every year so that would be my goal for next year, I suppose. Apart from that, buying place tickets has saved me in the long run so I should keep that. And the score scale was a good idea to improve my performance but it might need more revision.

That's about it for now. Have a happy New Year, everyone!

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Caterpillar