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10/01  Physical Labor Day

8:26 p.m. A full day of cleaning out and packing up the working space so as to make space for a desk, a bookshelf and some chests. We needed to bring them down for the collection tomorrow morning.

However, a slight misjudgement made the task terribly tough. The bookshelf that was supposed to have been carried in up the stairs couldn't be brought down by the same route. It got stuck at the stairs and eventually, we had to carry it up again to drill holes in it, tie a rope and hang it from the balcony to put it down... A lot of physical labor. At least we were lucky enough I had some rope.

The barrier draw for Sprinters' Stakes had been announced already. Pixie Knight has drawn a difficult post unless the pace becomes tight. Same goes for First Force. Kurino Gaudi drew a good post. Resistencia and Danon Smash bothe drew good posts in the sense that they won't get squashed while it might be tough for Mozu Superflare considering her taking the lead.

The End

Caterpillar

10/02  Right Thigh Aching

5:50 p.m. Right thigh is aching from yesterday's physical labor. Might have hurt myself. Thankfully, we were able to put them all out in time and the collection people took them away. Though it's horrifying to think we have to repeat this process another couple of times. I thoroughly advise you to check your closets and get rid of unused or unwanted items once in a while.

I suffered with Sprinters' Stakes all afternoon starting from Pixie Knight, losing my bearing to wander off to Meikei Yell or Gendarme, or Kurino gaudi or even Shivaji. Not to mention I got all confused again. Finally, I decided to believe in my slightly revised score scale to key Danon Smash.

On the wheel would be Pixie Knight, First Force, Meikei Yell, Gendarme, and Mozu Superflare. Also, I'm not going to upload until next Wednesday since Tuesday is the moving day. Hope you'll understand.

The End

Caterpillar

10/06  Today's Progress

8:21 p.m. Exhausted but satisfied with today's progress. Thanks to everyone, the move has now finished without much trouble except that it was very much energy consuming, way over my imagination. Moving from a house to a small one bedroom apartment was a fierce battle of reducing things.

Yesterday the best was to make enough space to move around and sleep. Now I'm able to access the Internet and write this "Murmur". The cardboard box tower has grown a bit shorter although there are still two islands in the dining kitchen.

Need to review Sprinters' Stakes (actually, I'd changed the key -again- to Meikei Yell and did another blunder) however, that could wait a little longer.

The End

Caterpillar

10/07  Call from the Bike Shop

6:52 p.m. Got a call (finally!) from the bike shop that they've secured my cross bike and will be waiting for my arrival. Yes, yesss!!! Happy as I was have scanned through the Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Dai-shoten entrees before reviewing Sprinters' Stakes.

Christophe seeme to be riding Schnell Meister in Mainichi Ohkan, not Aristoteles in Kyoto Dai-shoten. Does that mean he thinks Schnell Meister has a better chance of winning? It could become a rematch of Yasuda Kinen with Schnell Meister and Danon Kingly.

Meanwhile Aristoteles will be ridden by Mirco in Kyoto Dai-shoten. They seem to be the most favored in expected win odds which doesn't come as a surprise, since Aristoteles has done well in the spring Tenno-sho which was run on Hanshin tracks, the same course this year's Kyoto Dai-shoten will be run.

The End

Caterpillar

10/08  Busy All Day

7:15 p.m. Busy all day again. Have been to the bike shop to pick up my bike after washing clothes and cleaning the floor. Had to go there by bus since it was quite far from the place where I now live. After I came back I went to check out around the neighborhood, done all the registry for my bike, washed all the dishes and kitchen utensils with occasional care giving in between. Man, there are so much to do every day even though I'm off work. Wonder when I could get some rest?

While I've been doing all this, the barrier draw had already been announced for Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Dai-shoten. Didn't notice that until a few minutes ago, as a matter of fact I'd forgotten today was Friday.

Don't know how much time I could spare for horse racing this week. Let's see what I can do. For now, I think Schnell Meister and Danon Kingly both drew good posts for Mainichi Ohkan. Schnell Meister possibly slightly advantaged since the track would be fast. As for Kyoto Dai-shoten, Stay Foolish, Danburite, Aristoteles and Kiseki seem to have drawn good posts.

The End

Caterpillar

10/09  Won't Be Full-fledged

6:49 p.m. I went out to do some shopping in the afternoon and was going to try calling either Mainichi Ohkan or Kyoto Dai-shoten. However, I've been locked out and have lost my precious time. So it won't be a full-fledged call this week.

The turf condition of Tokyo and Hanshin both seem to be firm and fast. Horses with fast records will be advantaged in that sense. Looking at the entrees of Minichi Ohkan, I don't see any rivals to go against Daiwa Cagney so the pace could be slow. If te pace becomes slow, it will be an instantaneous speed contest. Horses that have boosts in their last 3 furlongs would be the target. If the horse (with the boost) could go up front to take a good position, even better. The candidates would be say, Schnell Meister, Sanrei Pocket, Potager, Cadenas, and Cadence Call. I wouldn't trust Danon Kingly after high performance let alone carrying top weight. 3rd place, at best.

As for Kyoto Dai-shoten, Belenus would be able to take the lead without anyone else poking so the pace could also slacken as well. So horses that have high aptitde for fast turf with instantaneous speed would be the target. For example, Aristoteles, Diamant Minoru, Heat on Beat and maybe, Kiseki..

The End

Caterpillar

10/10  Away and Apart

6:21 p.m. Have just come back from shopping and watched Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Dai-shoten. The problem here is that all the supermakets are a bit away and apart it takes some time to do shopping.

The result of manichi Ohkan wasn't far from what I'd epected. Kawada probabaly moved up because he thought the pace was getting monotonous and he knew it'd be better to go up front. Danon Kingly did well considering his weight but Schnell Meister's instantaneous speed was greater.

What surprised me was Kyoto Dai-shoten. Old Makahiki has won, the first in 5 years. Ah, I'd forgotten he also was a Deep Impact descendant, an advantage in a condition like today. At any rate, Aristoteles's performance was disappointing. But then, he's 4-years old. The spoiled generation.

The End

Caterpillar

10/11  Time Waits for No One

7:37 p.m. Haven't even started reviewing Sprinters' Stakes but Shuka-sho will be held this weekend. Time waits for no one. And this year Shuka-sho will be held at Hanshin! Now Hanshin 2000m is a whole different story from the annual Kyoto 2000m. Or is it, really?

Perhaps I could refer to Osaka-hai's notes. My impression is that Hanshin needs more power than Kyoto. Usually, winners of Kinko-sho perform well in Osaka-hai on the premise that the horse has earned an easy win. Over-working does nothing good. However, that's about Kinko-sho with only 2 week's interval before Osaka-hai. Things could be different in Shuka-sho's case. For example, Sodashi has won Sapporo 2000m (Sapporo Kinen) with enough time to recover before Shuka-sho. Still, it wasn't an easy win so you can't completely deny the risk of her losing.

The End

Caterpillar

10/12  Perhaps Rose Stakes

8:05 p.m. It took 40 minutes on foot one way to the dentist. Wanted to ride the bike though couldn't sum up enough courage to ride in the rain (and the dark). Let's think it was good exercise although I'm quite tired after walking for an hour and a half.

Have written about the relation between Osaka-hai and Kinko-sho yesterday but come to think of it, perhaps Rose Stakes is more closer to Kinko-sho than Sapporo Kinen. The interval between Rose Stakes and Shuka-sho is 3 weeks, only a week longer than that between Kinko-sho and Osaka-hai.

Another similar point is that Rose Stakes and Kinko-sho are both run at Chukyo, on the same course in the same distance. Rose Stakes is annually run at Hanshin however, it was run at chukyo this year thanks to the Kyoto course rennovation.

The End

Caterpillar

10/13  Cool Air

6:44 p.m. Rain has brought cool air. The temperature has dropped to average and it's been cool today. Had to wake up early and have fought drowziness all day while checking out my notes from Osaka-hai and the entrees of Shuka-sho.

Notes say inner posts have the advantage and the pace tends to be either average or slow. If the pace becomes slow, front runners and inner post drawers might be more advantaged. This will become more likely if the track condition gets soft. Actually, slight rain is expected in Hanshin for the weekend. Must stay alert.

The End

Caterpillar

10/14  Turf Condition

6:40 p.m. Checking on the turf condition of Hanshin. Although the best I could do is to refer to the results of last week, they give me the information I need. And what I can say from the results so far is that high performing horses need instantaneous speed regardless of their positions during the race.

Overall the turf seems to be firm and fast meaning, upper class races might finish with a good record. Usually when the track is fast, horses taking their positions in the back of the field don't tend to perform well unless the pace becomes tight. However, last week's results show horses from behind doing as well as the front runners. Instantaneous speed will be required regardless of the horses' positions in the race especially, if/when the pace slackens.

The End

Caterpillar

10/15  Before I Knew

6:49 p.m. Before I knew it the barrier draw for Shuka-sho was already announced. Have been busy analyzing the past Shuka-sho and applying for some public documents via convenience store only to get rejected although it worked smoothly just a month ago.

Let's see, hmmm. Forecast says it will start raining in Hanshin from tomorrow evening and will last until some time during Sunday. Not that this vague information helps much. If the track becomes soft, perhaps horses like Stellaria or Sodashi might be advantaged. However, Sodashi does not seem to have the instantaneous speed required.

Have just checked the win odds and was appalled. The most favored was Sodashi as expected though the gap between the 2nd favored Uberleben was unexpectedly big. Wonder if that will change by tomorrow evening?

The End

Caterpillar

10/16  Not as Fast

7:35 p.m. Have done what I could with Shuka-sho even though I've been rejected from the convenience store terminal again. Have checked the recent track condition from today's races and it transpired that the turf may not be as fast as I'd thought. So I'm shifting to the monotonous power type a bit.

The still-on-the-trial score scale shows Andvaranaut with the top score so am keying Andvaranaut. On the wheel would be Stellaria, Sodashi, Art de Vivre, Uberleben, and Akaitorino Musume. Fine Rouge and A Shin Hiten actually scored higher than Sodashi or Uberleben to be honest, but just couldn't turn a blind eye to G1 winners.

The End

Caterpillar

10/17  Stupid Me

5:41 p.m. You shouldn't prioritize G1 winners just because they're G1 winners. If I had been able to keep myself stronger to reject Sodashi and Uberleben loyally following my own score scale, Fine Rouge and A Shin Hiten would have been on my wheel.

Wasn't so sure about Uberleben since it involved an injury however, I was considerably sure Sodashi would not perform well today. Still, I gave in to fear of the most favored winning and look what happened? What was the score scale for if I didn't bet on the high-scored horses? What was all that struggle for? Stupid me, stupid me.

The End

Caterpillar

10/18  Slipped Out

6:26 p.m. What slipped out from the score scale for Shuka-sho was the damage and stress from the previous races of each horse. Had I taken that into account, perhaps I might have noticed Fine Rouge had less damage and stress than Andvaranaut which almost automatically leads to including the horse in my wheel as long as I'm keying Andvaranaut. Fine Rouge had slight stress though her previous race was Shion Stakes, the minor step to Shuka-sho. This positions her above Andvaranaut whose previous race was the more major Rose Stakes.

Another mistake was incluing Sodashi not to mention. If I'd been brave enough to cut her out there has been enough room to include Fine Rouge.

The entrees for Kikka-sho has been out as today is Monday and Stella Veloce seems to be the most favored in the expected win odds. However, I have the same feeling I've felt against Sodashi. Stella Veloce does have stress from Koube Sninbun-hai. Can't say anything solid yet but this time I ought to be brave enough to cut him out if necessary.

The End

Caterpillar

10/19  Substitute

7:20 p.m. Have reviewed Shuka-sho then checked out the entree form for Kikka-sho. Last year I remember winning a place for Kikka-sho while doing a blunder in trifectas. Have dug out my notes though unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), Kikka-sho will also be held at Hanshin not the annual Kyoto as well as Shuka-sho.

Coincidentally, JRA has just announced today that all Kyoto races will be substituted by Hanshin in 2022 due to the Kyoto rennovation. Better keep in mind what I learned from last week's Shuka-sho. Well, at least there will be something to refer to next year whether I win or lose.

The End

Caterpillar

10/20  So What?

6:12 p.m. Finally got the public document I needed via a convenience store terminal. It took me more than several tries but so what? The important thing is I get the document I need. Though this is only the beginning of all the beaurocratic paperwork I'm bound to go through in the next couple of months. Daunting.

One task done, let's get back to Kikka-sho. It's an unusual one not just because it's run on Hanshin turf but also because neither Satsuki-sho winner or D'erby winner is entered. The level of the race could become lower than usual. Perhaps I should widen the target to say, open class or even lower category. Nevertheless, experiences of racing in grade races are important when it comes to performing well in the top category, G1.

The End

Caterpillar

10/21  A Brief Scan

5:05 p.m. The barrier draw for Kikka-sho has been announced already. Ah yes, it's a classic so it was announced today, Thursday. Have lost sense of date or day since I've moved because work has been off since then.

A brief scan revealed World Revival might have drawn a good post considering he'd take the lead, as well as Titleholder and Road to Fame taking in account their pedigree background. Divine Love has also drawn a good post but the damage from her previous race is rather concerning, while Stella Veloce might have a difficult time controlling the horse if the pace slows down which is very likely to happen. The Heart's Cry brothers Gratias and Victipharus might have a hard time drawing outer posts not to mention Orthoclase who drew the outmost post. The outmost post is apparently a disadvantage unless te horse (and the rider) either takes the lead or stay way behind.

The End

Caterpillar