5:18 p.m. It looks like Niigata 2000m rarely becomes a tight race. Perhaps because of the spacious course layout. The clock seems to be faster than average though, when the track is firm. When the turf softens with rain, front runners have the advantage however, spontaneous speed is a must since the pace rarely gets tight.

I don't see any repeaters in the past 10 years except for Jinambo who luckily drew the same barrier 2 years in a row. That means the fresher the horse is, the better.

Either the first or second favored in win odds (sometimes both) are finishing within 3rd place 7 times out of 10, so it would be better to build up the call based on the favored side I guess. The track condition was soft in 2 years out of 3 when the race became wild. Must be on the alert for weather reports.

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Caterpillar

4:31 p.m. I've been taking things easy that I could build up my call centering 3-year-olds and the most favored however, now I'm feeling I was taking it too easy.

Looking at the entry form, the only 3-year-old Lagom looks rather like a monotonous type which performs better on say, Nakayama 1800m. He has difficulty in harmonizing also, and a slackened lap is likely to make things harder for the horse.

On the other hand, the older horses consist of quite a lame line-up. Am not sure if Zadar, currently the most favored in expected win odds could win. He might finish second or third (or fourth or fifth) though that's too weak to key him. Sigh. I'm stuck.

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Caterpillar

6:03 p.m. Rain is falling again. It's good that the heatwave is now gone but rain has lingered on for about a week. My plants are wilting due to lack of sunshine and I'm getting tired of worrying about the leak. In a month I shall be released from such worries though there's the rubbish dumping and packing hell before that.

Barrier draw for Niigata Kinen has been announced. The weather report says there'll be a slight rainshower in Niigata tomorrow however, clear skies are predicted for Sunday. If that becomes true, Satono Arthur, Shonan Bardi, Red Scion, Ria Amelia might have a hard time starting from inner posts, unless the pace becomes tight which is unlikely to happen.

In the meantime, Rheinbeck, Clavel, Effect on, or Precious Blue might be able to take the outer course where the turf condition could be better. Will have to wait and see tomorrow's results to gather more information.

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Caterpillar

7:41 p.m. There are too many uncertainties I couldn't pin down specific horses. The weather, the track condition, tha pace. The best to do in such situaion is not to buy betting tickets. However, I can't just let it pass.

I decided to count on the only 3-year-old Lagom as my ke horse. The required condition might not be perfect for this horse, but if he's going to perform well it should be his first race against older horses. If he doesn't perfrom well this time, he probabaly needs some more time.

On the wheel would be Satono Arthur, Zadar, Partiamo, Yashamaru, and Clavel.

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Caterpillar

6:02 p.m. Lagom has lost control as feared and sunk in 12th place. I wonder why THE rider didn't let the horse go a bit more if he was going to fight that hard? Lagom didn't have a good start so perhaps he thought there would be a better chance if he could hold down the horse. Obviously, he failed. More worse, he took the inside at the homestretch while all the others were crowding to the outside where the turf condition was bettter. Terrible race. Lagom will have a big problem if he can't harmonize in that pace which wasn't so slow.

As the results show, horses from the outer posts had the advantage today being able to take their course on the firm outside rather than the rough inside. Not that I imagined Meiner Fanrong would win even in the wildest of my dreams. Am raising a white flag today.

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Caterpillar

6:32 p.m. The summer local Niigata races have been finished. Pretty glad I don't have to worry about weather and track condition of that course any more. I'm missing the Paralympic games very much instead. Nakayama and Chukyo will start with Sion Staakes (Shuka-sho trial) on Saturday Nakayama Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap on Sunday, while Centaur Stakes will be held on Sunday at Chukyo.

Centaur Stakes has an interesting line-up on its entry form. Curren Moe, Kurino Gaudi, Resistencia, Pixie Knight, Lauda Sion, Gendarme, etc. It would probably a full-field race and I'd love to see how Christophe would control Resistencia. Also, it would be a sprint race in a while for Laudasion and I wonder how the horse will perform. Will take my time to decide which race to call this weekend.

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Caterpillar

7:09 p.m. Have strated my research on Centaur Stakes. Couldn't help it, it was more intriguing than Keisei-hai. Might check on Nakayama later, if I have time.

This year's Centaur Stakes will be held at Chukyo unlike the annual Hanshin, though the same thing has happened last year so I could make use of that experience, too.

It ssems the favored side is doing well as well as horses starting from inner posts. Horses starting from posts inner than 11 and front runners perform better while the turf is not yet damaged. If a favored horse is starting from the outside post, it would be better to pick front runners only.

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Caterpillar

6:25 p.m. Have checked out the past results of Keisei-hai and the stats of Nakayama mile, too.

Nakayama also tends to finish centering the favored side though the 4th to 9th favored horses tend to finish in 2nd or 3rd place to add abit to the pay-out. Autumn Nakayama turf tends to be a firm, fast track so such aptitude should be required to perform well.

Winning horses seem to concentrate on posts inner than 10 while horses starting from outer posts are more likely to finish in 2nd or 3rd place. Another interesting thing I found is that male horses perform better in proportion to their weight. Bigger male horses perform better.

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Caterpillar

5:03 p.m. I became rather suspicious about yesterday's finding that heavier male horses perform better in Keisei-hai Autmn Handicap. So I went to see if that was true.

Last year, the heaviest male horse running Keisei-hai was Stormy Sea weighing 558kg, followed by Meikei Die Hard 540kg, Luftstrom 506kg, Gendarme 502kg, and Russet 490kg. Among them, the best performer was Gendarme finishing 4th place. Bon Servico, the male horse finishing in 3rd place weighed 484kg which was the 6th heaviest of all male horses running this race. The winner and runner-up were both female horses for your information.

Another piece of fake news has been revealed.

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Caterpillar

3:56 p.m. The barrier draw for Centaur Stakes and Keisei-hai has been announced.

For Centaur Stakes, inner post starters relatively have the advantage as I've said before though I don't think this is the case with horses like Buon Voyage or Lauda Sion, as they don't perform well when they're squashed in the field.

Meanwhile, horses that drew the outer posts will have to go up front in order to catch the horses running ahead especially, when the pace becomes average. Sweeping up from the outside might work if the lap gets tight, though that would need stamina which can last for another furlong or two.

As for Keisei-hai, I think Grenadier Guards drew a good post if he could go smoothly. Contra Check and Karate also drew good posts where it's easier to keep good positions. The heaviest horse according to its previous race seems to be Besten Dank though, the 16th favored in expected win odds today.

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Caterpillar

7:27 p.m. Eventually, I couldn't resist my urge to challenge Centaur Stakes.

I've been torn between Pixie Knight and Curren Moe, but decided to prioritize fresh power although drawing the outer post is a risk for Pixie as he has difficulties in harmonizing. I'm counting on you, Yuichi.

On the wheel would be Red en Ciel, Resistencia, Gendarme, Curren Moe, and Naran Huleg. Assuming from today's Chukyo results, instantaneous speed seems to be a must.

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Caterpillar

4:23 p.m. Blunder again, a terrible one. I've changed my key horse from Pixie Knight to Curren Moe at the last minute. I hadn't been using the score scale for a while since I've been pretty busy. A simple case of negligence.

Well, it's not that I've won if I'd kept it Pixie Knight as I'd cut out Kurino Gaudi... The least blessing is that Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap finished with Catedral winning, Contra Check 2nd, and Grenadier Guards 3rd. No, I haven't bought betting tickets but perhaps someone might have listened to my advice concerning the barrier draw.

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Caterpillar

7:03 p.m. The problem with the score scale is that it eats up a lot of my time. I have to come up with a way to do it without spending too much time but how? Still, this task is important as I wasn't so far off the mark. It must be solved before the full-fledged G1 season starts.

Next Sunday we're having Rose Stakes (Shuka-sho trial) at Chukyo and Centlight Kinen at Nakayama on Monday (as it's a holiday). Not to mention I'm going for Centlight Kinen as usual. Why not when All Comer is waiting less than a week ahead?

Meanwhile, I'm planning to finally go down to a bicycle shop to get myself a long-waited road racing bike.

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Caterpillar

7:01 p.m. I've been to a bike shop but they just didn't have the frame size I needed. The demand for road racing bikes are increasing while the number of bikes manufactured are not, having the background of costs shooting up from manufacturing costs, labor costs to transporting costs. Even if I ordered now, it's uncertain when I could see my new bike. Well, at least I had some good exercise walking for 8km. Let's not worry about the bike too much for now.

This week's goal is Centlight Kinen. Anually, front runners have the advantage in this race. Titleholder, currently the 2nd favored in expected win odds holds the key to winning this race or not. The horse himself has performed well on Nakayama turf in the spring season as well as at the top level. He's also a front runner which could become a huge advantage if the track becomes soft.

The important point would be, whether there will be a potential horse that could take the lead to pull Titleholder behind or not.

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Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. Had to go out again. My legs and feet are quite tired from another long walk following yesterday's 8km. Today's walk was about 5km with some measuring job in between.

Checking out the past results of Centlight Kinen quickly, you can easily see that the most favored has a good average in finishing within 3rd place actually, 80%. The rate drops to half for the 2nd favored, while it pushes back a wee 10% for the 3rd favored.

The spring classic runners seem to perform well and annually at least one horse previously running the D'erby is finishing within 3rd place. The only exception in the past 10 years was 2013 when there was only one horse that had run D'erby in its previous race. The horse was Hiraboku Deep for your information, a Deep Impact descendant not to mention that had lost its concentration after winning Aoba-sho.

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Caterpillar

7:19 p.m. Another day of going out though today it wasn't the distance that got me tired. I've been to the city hall for some paperwork and the process took away 2 hours of my precious afternoon. The digitalization of government office procedure in Japan is a century behind that of Europe. I wonder what those computers are for?

My work has completely stopped thanks to the lost 2 hours. Have to do my Centlight Kinen research in a mad rush now. And just as I pulled up the entry form, it tells me that there will be only 14 horses running. Perhaps it could become less since there are 3 more days to go before the race. Duh.

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Caterpillar

5:55 p.m. Looking at the racing form of Rose Stakes. Yes, the barrier draw has been announced though Centlight Kinen would be anounced later since it's held a day later.

Haven't researched Rose Stakes so can't say much about it. One thing I noticed is that there's only one horse that run both Ohka-sho and Oaks, Art de Vivre. This means that the level of the race might not be as tough as the usual Rose Stakes. Rose Stakes is a trial race for Shuka-sho and annually, top female 3-year-olds start their autumn season with this race.

So it could become a race between horses that performed relatively well in Oaks and the potential new comers that didn't make it to the spring classics. Anyhow, I'd value the aptitude for fast tracks and instantaneous speed if Iwere to buy betting tickets for example, Tagano Passion, Andvaranaut, Cordial, or Art de Vivre.

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Caterpillar

7:25 p.m. All right, the barrier draw for Centlight Kinen has been announced so let's take a look.

Titleholder and Orthoclase, the top two most favored horses both drew good posts. Perhaps Titleholder slightly better in the sense that he could get and keep a good position more easily. Besides, the condition of Orthoclase is uncertain which could be critical as this is his first race back from a fracture.

It rained cats and dogs today thanks to the typhoon, but Nakayama turf would probably dry up by Monday. Even after today and tomorrow's races, I figure the chances are high that the tracks would be firm and fast. Trailers won't be able to take over the front runners. Front runners will be expected high aptitude for a fast track and instantaneous speed.

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Caterpillar

8:43 p.m. Have had a terrible week but did my best to call Centlight Kinen.

Naturally, I'd choose Title holder as my key however, I felt a twinge of suspicion. So I decided to put him on the wheel. Instead I'm keying Orthoclase although there are uncertainties about his conditon. If the horse has had enough workouts to run in a race, I have a hunch he could do better than Titleholder since the requirements meet him the best. If not, he'll just sink.

On the wheel would be Victipharus, Titleholder, and Red Velocity. Could go for trifectas come to think of it. Or exactas perhaps.

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Caterpillar

4:42 p.m. Victoire Pisa descendant!!! Asamano Itazura was a Victoire Pisa descendant! Victoire Pisa descendants perform well on Nakayama but I'd totally forgot...

It was a tough race for Titleholder (as well as for me) with the jockey not only unable to keep contact with the horse but also neglecting to think ahead to move agressively at the last stretch. As a result, the horse has lost its course and sank low in 13th place.

On the other hand, Orthoclase and So valiant could be given a pass mark considering Kikka-sho. Centlight Kinen runner-up usually performs better than the winner in Kikka-sho if my memory is correct.

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Caterpillar

3:54 p.m. Must review Centlight Kinen well before this weekend's All Comer.

What I did wrong was the judgement of the level. Considering there were only 3 out of 14 horses that experienced both Satsuki-sho and D'erby, the level of the race could have been assumed as not so high. The fact that longshots could perform well in such case was already researched, but I'd let it pass in haste. I seem to have some trouble with attention.

Therefore, I need to decide the level of the race first, in order not to make the same mistake again. Let me check out the All Comer entry form before I forget. Hmm, looks like there's a chance for a wild race.

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Caterpillar

6:33 p.m. Oh, and I need to keep in mind that trusting horses starting from inner posts too much could be dangerous especially, when the race level is not so high and the track is firm and fast. As a matter of fact, I got screwed cutting out So valiant.

I've been out again today, half of my trip related to the moving and half of it in search for a cheap X-bike in the meantime. My road bike would take months even if I ordered now. I'm thinking of a cheap in-between X-bike. A bit tired from all the walk, but will see if I could launch on my research for All Comer. Or perhaps that might have to wait until tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

6:49 p.m. Have done my research though made no progress in anything else. The electricity company's call center wasn't even opened because today was a public holiday so I couldn't move on with my processing. Neither could I find any bike shops that still had in store a small-framed bike that suits me. Have been met many times with inconveniencies due to my being short, but this one might be the worst.

Getting back to All Comer. The favored side seems more hopeful however, the winning rate for the most favored in win odds is merely 30% while the rate for them finishing within 3rd place is 60%. Not as trustful as Centlight Kinen. Not that the most favored performed well in Centlight this year, though. Perhaps we shouldn't trust the most favored if that horse isn't a grade race winner and have high potential.

The 4-year-olds are doing well followed by the 5-year-olds as well as female horses. Horses older than 8 haven't performed well at least, n the past 10 years. There aren't any repeaters that performed highly 2 years in a row, the best was Rey de Oro's 4th place in his second challenge. That means Stay Foolish might not stand a chance.

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Caterpillar

6:49 p.m. Have done my research though made no progress in anything else. The electricity company's call center wasn't even opened because today was a public holiday so I couldn't move on with my processing. Neither could I find any bike shops that still had in store a small-framed bike that suits me. Have been met many times with inconveniencies due to my being short, but this one might be the worst.

5:29 p.m. The barrier draw for All Comer has been announced.

As mentioned before, horses starting from inner posts have the advantage so you only need to be careful with horses that could go up front for outer post starters, since the pace doesn't seem to become fast. Horses that meet this condition would be Glory Vase, Lei Papale, Rose Amour, and Stay Foolish. However, taking in account that horses starting from posts outer than 14 hasn't performed well in the past 10 years, perhaps you could dismiss the idea of including Rose Amour and Stay Foolish in your bet.

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Caterpillar

8:19 p.m. Have been trying to concentrate on my call but unfortunatly have been distracted every 5 minutes... Oh, please.

Tried the score sheet again although it's still incomplete and as a result, ended up with asuch a plain conclusion that Lei Papale could probably finish above 3rd place. Yes, the distance may be a bit too longer than her best range, but she's a G1 horse. It's hard to imagine her being beaten by 3 of her competitors.

On the wheel would be Win Marilyn, Win Kiitos, Rambling Alley, King of Koji, and Gold Gear.

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Caterpillar

5:14 p.m. Finally, finally, I've ordered myself a bike. Not the road racing model I wanted since that would take too much time but instead, a basic cross bike for daily use. Have paid a deposit though don't know yet if the shop could hold the bike in the storehouse. There were a few left as of Friday, so I'd be able too get a bike if no one else had placed an order before me. The shop is supposed to give me a call.

All Comer and Koube Shinbun-hai had both finished while I've been out to the bike shop. And frustratingly, Lei Papale has amazingly lost in 4th place not 3rd. You lose one thing when you get one thing. The natural course of life. Let me just hope this means I will be getting my bike in a week or two.

As for Kobe Shinbun-hai, it must have been a tough race for Shahryar sith the outer post and yielding track whilst this worked as an advantage for Stella Veloce.

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Caterpillar

6:32 p.m. Have been out again today in behalf of stupid Cow who refused to go out himself. Then another visit to the dentist for a checkup which only revealed things weren't as good as I hoped. Still no call from the bike shop but that would probably have to wait for a week or two.

I'd better start thinking about Sprinters' Stakes coming up this weekend in the meantime. The autumn G1 races are beginning although I'm being exhausted working and preparing for another move.

Tomorrow, will have to go out again. No time sitting in front of my computer though I need to improve my score scale before the G1 series start. Actually, Lei Papale and Win Marilyn had been the same score. I chose Lei Papale basically, because she had less experience under the given condition however, Win Marilyn was better in the sense of aptitude. Must come up with an observative index.

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Caterpillar

6:25 p.m. And before I revise my score scale I've taken a peek at the entry form for Sprinters' Stakes. Just couldn't wait you see, as a treat for today's outing which turned out to be a light muscle training of hanging shopping bags from both arms and keeping that position for 40 minutes with a ouple of minutes' interval.

Yoka Yoka, the Kyushu born-and-bred has unfortunately and unexpectedly retired due to injury, so the 3-year-old competitors would be Pixie Knight and Meikei Yell. Meikei Yell would be another gamble. I wonder which would be the most favored Resistencia or Danon Smash? Possibly Resistencia. Danon Smash probaly needs some conditions that work as his advantage, such as soft track condition, outer post and/or a tight lap.

I know I'd better start on my revision but first, Harimaya's asahi-age (another treat) and then some cleaning up before the packing.

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Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Checked the processing of city lifeline services since I received a call from the gas company that the room number was different from the one I told them. That wasn't my fault, though. I had been informed the wrong room number. So I made calls to check everything was under the right procedure. If one thing goes wrong, I could be in serious trouble to have to go without electricity, water, or gas. As for the Internet, I already have a plan secured.

And then another couple of hours of sorting what to throw away, what goes in the storage and what to take with me. The room I'm sleeping in now got all dusty and needs another round of cleaning. Sigh.

In my spair time have checked the results of my score scale which were not much thanks to my negligence. Nevertheless, I was able to write out the problems with my score scale to reconsider how it should be improved to make it work better. The biggest problem still left unsolved is what to do when two or more horses had the same score, just like in the case of Win Marilyn and Resistencia. What factor should I value most?

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Caterpillar

7:21 p.m. Today was the last day of work before the rennovation. Though I've been kept busy helping Cow take off the air conditioner from the wall between meetings. You could, on your own, I learned from today's experience.

Have also worked on Sprinters' Stakes reviewing my notes and checking out new information. The most favored has performed well so far but I don't feel like trusting Resistencia so blindly. Danon Smash seems shaky, too. Smart viewers probably know which horse I'm paying attention to, you-know-who-I'm-talking-about?

The candidates have been narrowed down to 7 at this point. The rest will have to wait until the barrier draw is announced tomorrow, as well as the trial of my new score scale.

The End

Caterpillar