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6/01  Repeators

6:54 p.m. Now that D'erby is over, Yasuda Kinen is coming up this weekend.

Fortunately or unfortunately, Yasuda Kinen is one of those races for repeaters. One horse from the previous year's top 3 finishers tend to stay over in many cases. In order to win, you need to guess right which of the 3 horses from last year would stay over.

Sorry it's short today, my Dell-tina has fallen ill and I'm tapping this on my iPadmini. Spare me some mercy, will you?

The End

6/02  Dell-tina Gone

8:15 p.m. Our Dell-tina has unfortunately gone despite our effort to save her. The trouble seemed to come from the hard disk drive which we aren't surprised since the computer has been working for about 10 years.

Luckily we had a new computer that we bought last year for my private use so I put it on a carrier and pulled it to work today to use it at my workplace instead. I could use my old lap-top at home.

I've just finished making a recovery media and installing a mail application. After spending the whole afternoon, I finally got down to write. Hopefully, I'll be able to write about Yasuda Kinen tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

6/03  Which One?

7:11 p.m. Okay, back to Yasuda Kinen, phew.

Since Almond Eye has retired, horses that could become a repeater is either Gran Alegria or Indy Champ. The question is "Which one is it?" Now that's a tough one, as you might already know.

Having seen the outstanding performance in Victoria Mile, it's natural to think Gran Alegria would be THE horse. The bothering thing though, is that the race interval is 2 weeks which is quite short. Many of you probaly remember Almond Eye losing to Gran Alegria last year in the same situation. There isn't a horse to beat gran Alegria, you might say, but that's just what we thought last year.

On the other hand, Indy Champ had more than enough interval however, he hasn't won against Gran Alegria in his career (not even once) infact, he hasn't won a race last year and he's already 6 years old. Hasn't he peaked out already? It's really a good question. Will have to ponder and suffer again for the rest of the week.

The End

Caterpillar

6/04  Prophecy?

5:21 p.m. Before I decide this year's repeater, the barrier draw for Yasuda Kinen has been announced, so let's take a look.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Salios
2Gibeon
3Daiwa Cagney
4Karate
5Gran Alegria
6Danon Premium
7Lauda Sion
8Indy Champ
9Taurus Gemini
10Cadenas
11Danon Kingly
12Cadence Call
13Schnell Meister
14Catedral

Woa. Gran Alegria is starting from post number 5, the same post as Almond Eye last year. The number of horses entered is also the same as last year, 14. Is this some kind of prophecy or what? Horses starting from post number 5 has finished within 3rd place only twice in the past 10 years, 2019 champion Indy Champ and last year's runner-up Almond Eye, FYI.

Another tip (since I couldn't write much this week). The most favored in win odds have been performing well for the past 10 years, finishing either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place at the rate of 70%. The rate for the 2nd favored drops to 20% while the same rate for the 3rd favored jumps up again to 60%.

The End

Caterpillar

6/05  Sudden Rainfall

8:32 p.m. Yes, I have pondered and suffered but have managed to reach to conclusion.

Since sudden rainfall is expected tomorrow around the time of the race, I decided to key Indy Champ. Gran Alegria apparently isn't in her top condition. That might not affect her performance considering her high potential, still it's a risk when the lap becomes tight on a soft or even yielding track.

Will key Indy Champ on a wheel of Salios, Gibeon, Gran Alegria, Schnell Meister, and Catedral.

The End

Caterpillar

6/06  Danon was Danon

5:15 p.m. Danon was Danon but Danon Kingly...

Got up late to find that it hadn't rained much and decided in a hurry to change my key back to Gran Alegria, swinging Indy Champ on the wheel. Also remembered that I sweared I won't buy Salios ever again after Osaka-hai so cut him out to replace with Danon Premium. Though that was the mistake.

I've acted in such a haste to make the critical mistake of taking a Deep Impact descendant drawing an inner post. Always, always take the one starting from middle to outer posts for Deep Impact descendants, had been my rule. Gran Alegria is an exception since she belongs in a two class higher category compared to the other competitors. Well, Danon Kingly wasn't marked from the beginning, so I'd alreday done a blunder from the start, though.

The End

Caterpillar

6/07  Instantaneous Speed Contest

5:54 p.m. Ah. Finished my call to the realtor. I have to move again in a month and a half. Daunting.

The released furlong lap time of Yasuda Kinen show there was a seccond's gap between the first 3 furlongs and the last, so I shall say the pace wasn't that tight. Therefore, horses with instantaneous speed occupied the bulletin. Also, horses shortening the distance have all sank as the pace lagged for a mile race. Danon Kingly can be excluded as he's had a long interval after Tennno-sho last November.

Gran Alegria has performed relatively well considering the tight racing schedule. She'll be back in shape by autumn. Now that Danon Kingly has won a G1, will have to keep an eye on him for a while. Don't think his high performance would last so long, but just to be on the safe side.

Schnell Meister showed the 3-year-old generation this year is in a high level. If classic winners enter Tenno-sho (fall) or Japan Cup, not to mention Arima Kinen, I will actively buy them. Though I don't think Schnell Meister could win a G1 while finishing 3rd place despite the weight advantage. NHK Mile Cup winers usually don't achieve great success.

The End

Caterpillar

6/08  No G1 Until Takaraduka

5:56 p.m. No G1 held until Tkaraduka Kinen. Epsom Cup and Hakodate Sprint Stakes will be held this weekend. It's time for the summer races. The temperature has suddenly shot up to 30 °C though I don't remember any announcements made that we've entered the rainy season in Kanto area.

Not really in the mood for calling summer races, not just because I'm not good at it but also because there are too many things to do. Besides, my interest has already shifted to Takaraduka Kinen. It's not just the matter of motivation, it's a matter of time and energy.

Still, I was a bit stimulated to see the name of Seda Brillantes on the entry list of Epsom Cup.

The End

Caterpillar

6/09  No Way!

4:22 p.m. Starting early today as there's a meeting after this.

My jaws dropped to see the would-be Takaraduka Kinen entrees. Here's the whole list: Aristoteles, Curren Bouquet d'Or, Kiseki, Chrono Genesis, Shironii, Mozu Bello, Lei Papale period. There were only 7 names! No, no,no,no, nooooooo! I'm looking forward to Takaraduka Kinen counting fingers, you know. Can't afford to let it run with merely 7 horses, no way!

What happened to Wagnerian? Hishi Iguazu? Danon Premium and Salios should enter since they hardly raced in Yasuda Kinen. Surely, Blast Onepiece, Persian Knight or Bravas would enter as they'd run in Naruo Kinen, a step race for Takaraduka. Maybe Seda Brillantes and Velox could make it, too. That'd make 16 entrees.

The End

Caterpillar

6/10  Just Happened to

5:33 p.m. Just happened to cross by the entrees of Epsom Cup while letting Takaraduka Kinen's entry form to be filled.

It's hard to pick up any trends from the past 10 years' results. It seems like the quality of the race changes drastically according to the track condition. If I'm forced to say, there's one thing I noticed, though.

Horeses running May Stakes previously have been doing well for the past 4 years. This might become a breakthrough as the track condition differed. The May Stakes runners that performed well in Epsom Cup share one thing in common, that they all experienced an interval of at least two months before May Stakes. Plausible. Otherwise, the racing schedule would be too tight. The only horse that fit this description this year is Wonder Pucuk...

The End

Caterpillar

6/11  One More Horse

5:40 p.m. As a matter of fact, there's one more horse whose previous race was May Stakes. It's Atomic Force.

Atomic Force has run 4 races this season, with his previous being May Stakes. However, the interval between May Stakes and Lord Derby Challenge Trophy is 6 weeks, a little shorter than 2 months, meaning that he doesn't meet the conditions of May Stakes runners performing well in Epsom Cup.

Unfortunately, Atomic Force has drawn the outmost post which could become a disadvantage, even if he took the lead among this lax entrees.

The End

Caterpillar

6/12  Not

7:51 p.m. Have been pretty busy as you might already know and will be for throughout next month, so I'm not gonna call Epsom Cup with all my might. No, not with stupid Cow poking me every 10 minutes. I just can't focus.

Besides, I don't think I could win a Tokyo 1800m as winning is like drawing straws meaning, there are too many uncertainties.

Though if you need to know, here's my carefree call for Epsom Cup. Will key Yashamaru (not Wonder Pucuk), on a wheel of Velox, Seda Brillantes, Falconia, Wonder Pucuk and Satono Flag. Just for your reference.

The End

Caterpillar

6/13  Well, Well, Well

10:11 p.m. Well, well, well. Where was Yashamaru? Where was Velox?

It turns out that Epsom Cup became an unexpectedly tight lap. Not unexpected to be precise. I did think this might happen since there were quite a few front runners entered, though I wasn't quite sure as it's rare for Tokyo 1800m to become a tight lap.

And because of the pace, the top two horses were both non-high-performers in their previous race; that is, free from left-over damage. In that sense, Falconia has hung on pretty well. I think the the horse will need a break to perform well again, though.

The End

Caterpillar

6/14  Worth the Wait

7:23 p.m. Perhaps it was worth the wait. The entry list for Takaraduka Kinen is filling up. There are 15 horses entered as of today.

True there aren't any G1 winners newly entered however, Takaraduka is annually like this despite its being a Grand Prix race. The number of entrees have doubled in a week from 7 which is a progress. Besides, it's important (for me) that it becomes a full-field race in order not to make it an easy race for the favored.

And maybe Yoshio's entry might cheer up the fans a bit. Wish old Makahiki would also enter.

The End

Caterpillar

6/15  Unnecessary

5;23 p.m. After Windows Update which took a long time, I found unnecessary weather and temperature icons displayed on my task bar. I don't need them! I'd rather have the system more light and strainless than displaying weather.

In my fury I've taken a peek at the entry list for Unicorn Stakes held this weekend. The race known as the gateway to success for 3-year-old dirt horses. Luce d'Oro, expected to be the most favored at this point, seems dangerous to me. The horse's performance looks like it improves when the lap becomes tighter, perhaps because of Kurofune in his broodmaresire.

Can't tell much before the barrier draw, but La Perouse or Ladybug looks more assuring.

The End

Caterpillar

6/16  Unicorn Stakes Tip

8:12 p.m. Had another meeting way into 7. A visit to the clinic beforehand. No time to think about horse race, humph.

Haven't had the time so just a tip from the past 10 years of Unicorn Stakes' results. The highest average in finishing within 3rd place is the 3rd favored in win odds, not the most favored or the 2nd. The average 90% leads by a considerable gap followed by 60% of the most and 2nd favored. This is worth paying attention to, as it means that the 3rd favored in win odds finish within 3rd place 9 times out of 10.

As of today, the 3rd favored in expected win odds seem to be Genpachi Forza, for your information.

The End

Caterpillar

6/17  Wouldn't Surprise Me

8:16 p.m. Same as always, have been busy all day dropping at my place, picking up a pc display to carry it to my new hideout. A sunny day during the rainy season should be made good use of.

Meanwhile, the expected win odds for Genpachi Forza is inching up getting closer to that of the 2nd favored La Perouse. It wouldn't surprise me if they switch before the race. If La Perouse drops to the 3rd favored in win odds, he will be the one with 90% average.

Have also spotted an interesting horse if the track becomes damp and fast. It's a longshot but perhaps a good candidate for 3rd place winner.

The End

Caterpillar

6/18  The 3rd Favored

6:54 p.m. The expected win odds have changed and La Perouse has become the 3rd favored. Though you never know until the last minute. And the barrier draw has been announced.

Luce d'Oro has drawn he outmost post which means he (and the rider) would have to bear the distance loss. It's hard to guess the lap as front runners are mostly gathered in the outer posts, but have a hunch it won't be slow. Still it's a dirt rae and although the distance is a mile, it might become monotonous. Horses that can perform highly in 1400m races might do well in that sense.

The End

Caterpillar

6/19  No Outstanding Horse

8:11 p.m. Had to assist Cow with his Black Dessert live quiz. Even leaving that aside, it was hard to call this year's Unicorn Stakes as there weren't any outstanding horse at this point.

I was going to key Keiai Lovage until now but then, the win odds has changed again. The 3rd favored now has become Luce d'Oro... Don't know which of these two would become the 3rd favored tomorrow, but personally Keiai Lovage looks like a better horse to me. So will leave Keiai Lovage to key.

On the wheel would be Smasher, Igniter (in case the track dried and became fast), Sunrise Urus, Probatio, and Luce d'Oro.

The End

Caterpillar