5:18 p.m. As a matter of fact, I'd been watching Hideki Matsuyama playing for the broze medal and have missed Queen Stakes.

I checked out the results and aaaaarrrrrgh! Fairy Polka! 4th place not 3rd by a neck! Aaaaaaarrrrrggggh!!!! I wasn't asking to win, 3rd place was fine and yet 4th! My first Hakodate win vanished in the haze.

Sodashi better pay me back, really. I just hope Sapporo Kinen is not held on Hakodate.

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Caterpillar

5:25 p.m. This week we're having Leopard Stakes (dirt 1800m) in Niigata and Elm Stakes (dirt 1700m) in Hakodate. The question is which to choose.

Leopard Stakes is a grade race for 3-year-olds while Elm Stakes is for 3-year-olds and above, though no 3-year-old is listed on the entry form. Let me take a look at the past results.

Horses entering after either Japan Dirt Deby or Unicorn Stakes seem to be doing well in Leopard Stakes. Lord Storm has previously run JDD and Clean Slate, Unicorn Stakes. For now I'm tilting towards the Elm side.

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7:52 p.m. On the other hand, horses racing in Marine Stakes previously seem to be doing well in Elm Stakes. And high performers in Marine Stakes tend to perform highly in Elm Stakes, too.

Erm... there are 3 horses that fall on such description at this point, Omega Rainbow, Suave Aramis, and Dantsu Castle, though I'm not sure yet if they have the advantage. Must do some more research hopefully, tomorrow.

It's also worth paying attention that K T Brave is entering this race after a year and a month's interval since he last run in Teioh-sho last year.

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1:41 p.m. I was about to do another blunder. Elm Stakes this year will be held at Hakodate, not the annual Sapporo. Phew, that was close. Have collected some information to preview Hakodate dirt 1700m. Ohnuma Stakes or Marine Stakes are the well-known races held under the same condition.

Because there's a downhill starting from the 1st corner lasting to the 2nd, the position battle is likely to become fierce resulting often in a tight pace. Therefore the race tends to become monotonous. Although the pace frequently becomes tight, the tight corners and short homestretch is a huge disadvantage for horses trailing behind while it would be easier for front runners if they could avoid being squashed in the position battle.

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1:52 p.m. Heatwave is hitting the country. Right now my computer shows the temperature as 35℃, but the street outside the window seems even hotter.

5:42 p.m. Computer still shows the temperature as 32℃. The entry for Elm Stakes has been closed and the race is going to be held with 14 horses this year. Must start pondering. It's been dauntingly sunny and hot though 3 typhoons are said to be approaching. We might have some rain over the weekend depending on the course of these typhoons. If the weather holds, I'm going for a monotonous race with outer post horses having the advantage however, things might change. Better be on the alert.

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4:42 p.m. Hot as usual. The barrier draw for Elm Stakes has also been announced even in this heat. wonder if the typhoon might bring some rain to make it abit cooler?

There are multiple horses that probaly want to go up front. Plus the fetaure of this course makes me think the pace is likely to become tight. The position battle is expected to become fierce meaning, horses that can sweep up from the outside would have the advantage.

Omega Rainbow or Lord Bless have drawn a good post in that sense. The situation gives advantage to Vengence, too if the horses condition is okay.

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6:36 p.m. The temperature might have dropped slightly but the humidity is making the air even more unpleasant. The stickiness must be unbearable for people from other parts of the world. My friends from overseas liked everything in Japan except this heat and stickiness in the summer.

I've tried hard though still am not confident. Naturally, Westerlund must perform highly among these entrees however, the horse 9 year old now and I'm not sure of his condition.

After much thinking, decided to key Westerlund. All I could do now is to cross my fingers that the lap would be tight and Westerlund is in good condition. On the wheel of Dantsu Castle, Time Flyer, Soliste Thunder, Vengeance, and Omega Rainbow.

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3:54 p.m. I missed the race again and as I checked the results Westerlund has lost in 4th place not 3rd, revisited. So I should have chosen Omega Rainbow instead of Westerlund. The point I was troubled until the last minute.

The loss of American Seed dodn't come as a surprise since I'd expected it. Vengence, Time Flyer and Dantsu Castle all lost in 7th, 8th and 9th place, which shows how far off I was from the mark. Wish I was Hiroki Muto, the archer who hit the bull's eye 10 point in the bronze medal match. That was awesome!

Will go and check the video at JRA site.

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Caterpillar

7:43 p.m. Have visited my family grave on my way to my parents' house. Now that I'm living apart from my dear mother, the less I could visit the grave.

My main goal today was to visit my mother (and sister) to check on them. A bit of filial duty. Have done necessary shopping on my way back home though that was the best I could do. The whole-day trip in this heat was enough to not just to eat up my time but also to suck away my energy. Topped up with olympic games-loss, don't know how I could move another inch.

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Caterpillar

5:10 p.m. The murderous heat is still here. Rather, it's become even hotter as it often is after a typhoon passes. I bet there's been lots of people who'd fallen heatsick today. But life goes on. Whether it's hot or we're attacked by pandemic, we've got our future to face. Let's keep our faith and take one step at a time. The day will come when we can get together again and embrace each other with loving respect.

Meanwhile we're having Kokura Kinen in the weekend. Not that I've won this one either. Still I could see that the top 3 favored (in expected win odds at this point) are dangerous too dangerous to trust.

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1:51 p.m. Have just disovered that Pax Americana is coming back to turf after 2 and a half year's blank. He's entered in Sekiya Kinen held at Niigata this year. Exciting! Songline, the 2nd place winner in NHK Mile Cup is also entered.

Songline is currently the most favored in expected win odds which doesn't come as a surprise considering her age and the light weight she's going to carry, 51kg. She's likely to do very well on Niigata turf and I'm beginning to think maybe I should go for Sekiya Kinen rather than Kokura. Well, let's wait and see.

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4:37 p.m. Have been staring a hole in the past 10 years of Kokura Kinen's result, though unsuccessful in picking up any clues or trends.

If I'm forced to say, post number 5 is doing a little better finishing within 3rd place by the rate of 50%. Oh god, the entry form is displaying only 10 horses. Others must have scratched off while I've been staring a hole.

If it's going to be a small-field race and the turf condition becomes soft as it very likely will be considering the weather in Kokura, advantages will generally be given to the inner posters and the front runners.

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7:21 p.m. The barrier draw for small-field Kokura Kinen has been announced. Sorry for being late, I've been out to get some karaage for supper.

The seemingly lucky post number 5 has been drawn by Shonan Bardi who is the 3rd favored in expected win odds as of today. Though there's also an unwelcomed data for Shonan Bardi that horses finishing 3rd place in its previous race which was a G3 have all lost below 4th place in Kokura Kinen.

Another trivia is that favored Deep Impact descendants don't do well in Kokura Kinen, while unfavored Deep Impact descendants have been performing quite well. I've been counting on Super Feather, but the outmost post although there're only 10 horses might not become an advantage on yielding Kokura tracks unless it becomes a deathly tight lap.

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8:06 p.m. The rain is supposed to stop in Kokura by tomorrow noon according to the weather report, though I don't expect the turf to dry off by the time of the race. That means horses starting from inner posts will have the advantage, I know. However, I couldn't quite trust the inner-posters from their physical damage aspect.

The only one (starting from inner posts) I thought might have a better chance than its previous race was R Star, so I'm going to key R Star. If the horse could perform well again, I think it's this time. On the wheel would be Double Sharp, Humidor, Velox, Mozu Nagareboshi, and Super Feather.

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5:46 p.m. As I checked the horses' gains and losses on my smartphone, the racing form told me R Star, my key horse has scratched off. Oh darn. I thought I was down on my luck. You never know what's gonna happen until the race runs.

Since my key horse was not running, I decided to slide up my 2nd expectant horse and keyed Humidor, and add Grand Speed on my wheel. I didn't think the horse would perform so well but it made me feel more easy to have at least one horse starting from an inner post.

I wasn't down on my luck, on the contrary. The change has won me a payout of 150 times! 154.7 times to be precise. Thank you, lord.

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Caterpillar

5:38 p.m. Enjoyed just a short while of joyous moment in winnng a long shot. Nevertheless, today is a new day and this week is another new week with Sapporo Kinen waiting at the end.

Would love to stay on this follow wind to win a trifecta this time however, the cool part of me says things won't come that easy. Sodashi has several advantages not to mention, though that does not automatically make her an easy winner. Besides, I'll have to figure out which horse would finish 2nd and 3rd. Now that is going to be a task while nearly one third of the entrees have just been back from recess. Better be careful and think well.

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Caterpillar

7:15 p.m. Have been dutifully doing my research for Sapporo Kinen after I've had my last dental surgery - yay. It's about time the anesthetic wear off. Must take pain killers before the aching becomes serious.

A bit from my research. The most favored seems to be doing well, finished within 3rd place at the rate of 80% in the past 10 years. Wow. The 2nd favored is doing better in the winning rate which is 40%, while finished within 3rd place at the rate of 60%. The 3rd favored somehow don't seem to perform well but the 4th to 6th favored are pushing back instead, finishing within 3rd place 33.3% and the winning rate 13.3% actually, the top rate of all.

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Caterpillar

5:22 p.m. It was supposed to be a day off related to Obon however, when there's a client there's business. My day off has been cancelled, sob.

My sleep-deprived body is desperately shouting to lie down and sleep though that just can't happen now. So here's another thing I picked up from my research on Sapporo Kinen. Horses starting from outer posts don't do very well unless the lap becomes tight.

This is because Sapporo has tight corners and many races run on this course demands instantaneous speed when the pace slackens. Horses taking thsir position on the back outside will have to bear the course loss in such situations.

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Caterpillar

6:03 p.m. Sorry everyone. I've been down and reeling on the bed for 3 days now. After I'd taken pain killers for my dental surgery, I've been attacked by a terrible diarreah and still suffering from it and a slight fever.

Haven't been able to do anything so I can't call Sapporo Kinen this week. I'm so sorry. I've been looking forward to it too, though I'm barely sitting tapping now. Haven't even checked the barrier draw closely.

The only thing I could say now is that Sodashi would probably do well. For other horses, please remember to choose horses with instantaneous speed. Check the past races of each horse and pick up the ones that have finished with good last 3 furlongs clock. If the performance is consecutive, that's better. If You're betting on inner post horses, pick the ones that are shortening the distance. Sorry, that's about all I could say. Now I should go back to bed.

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Caterpillar

6:56 p.m. I apologize for not uploading again yesterday. I was in bad shape on Saturday but then, the clinic nearby had already closed and wouldn't open until Monday. I had to suffer for another 2 days.

Since the fever had dropped to normal, I've been to the clinic this morning and have been prescribed some probiotics and antipyretic. After I've taken probiotics, the symptoms nearly vanished. Thank God. Now I'm just terribly hungry as I haven't been able to eat for a day and a half.

Hopefully I'll recover in a few days and be able to think about the next race. It's a real pity that I missed Sapporo Kinen.

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Caterpillar

6:06 p.m. I've been off work for 6 days and now coming back though diarreah still stays. Nevertheless, I'm much better now with temperature back to normal and being able to eat although limited to highly digestible food. Even a porridge is a feast for me now.

I'm still on the way to recovery so will have to ask my body and see what I could do and what not. Not sure at this point whether I could call Keenland Cup held this weekend. We'll wait and see. By the way, I've been tested for covid-19 when I went to the clinic yesterday and had my results an hour ago. I tested negative. Thank you god almighty.

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Caterpillar

5:25 p.m. As my condition has improved considerably, have now started my research for Keenland Cup while reluctantly getting started on a preparation for another move. I'm bound to move at the beginning of October. However, this time the environment would definitely improve so there's a bit of hope in it.

So far I've made sure that Keenland Cup should be called based on the favored side, since the most favored finishes within 3rd place at the average of 80%. Other horses could be chosen from a wide variety of odds.

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6:04 p.m. Recovering steadily and have also checked out the data for posts. Please note that these information are based on the past 10 years of Keenland Cup results (including the one that was held at Hakodate).

There isn't any special lucky post. Inner posts don't seem to do very well. They appear on the top 3 of the bulletin sporadically, either when the lap becomes tight or when the track condition becoes soft. Horses starting from post number 7 and outer are doing better.

Erm, it's quite obvious though, that Meikei Yell is very much advantaged. Still she will be back from recess so it's true there's a risk for her getting too hyped up. But that's a matter of the horse's condition which I can't do anything about.

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Caterpillar

5:07 p.m. the barrier draw for Keenland Cup has been announced. It's a full-field race for me in a while as well as my come-back race.

Will have to say it wasn't a good draw for Astra Emblem or Seiun Kosei. Katsuji, I'm not sure since he has performed well starting from an inner post but then, he took the lead at that time. Don't think he could this time.

Considering it's a sprint race, power types like Lord Kanaloa descendants might do well. Actually, there are 3 Lord Kanaloa descendants running Lord Aqua, Lei Halia, and Diatonic, which generally perform better starting from outer posts in a full-field race because they don't like to get squashed down in the field. However, if the lap becomes tight, inner post starters will less likely be squashed. If only Meikei Yell takes the lead to pull the race in a tight lap...

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7:55 p.m. Sorry again, I'm drained. I don't have confidence in my call either. I've done my best no doubt about it, but I couldn't pick up much clues from the racing form. So I've ended up risking my chances on one particular horse and 5 more which are all starting from the outer posts, in hopes that they would do better than horses starting from inner posts.

You all might have already sensed that my key horse is Meikei Yell. As I've written either before or after Ohka-sho, the horse has outstandingly high potential and speed if only she could focus on the race. With Yutaka back in the saddle, it's less likely she'd lose big unless there's disharmony between the horse and the rider.

I really don't have any confidence in my decision, I just picked horses from outer posts and put them on my wheel which consists of Mikki Brillante, Lei Halia, Daiatonic, Meiner Archemy, and Jo Arabica.

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Caterpillar

4:11 p.m. First of all, I need to apologize for not uploading yesterday. As a matter of fact it was Cow who forgot to upload while I wrote the contents squeezing out my last ounce of energy. How cruel.

Have missed the race again since I've been watching wheelchair rugby bronze medal match. Went to check out the results and learned that Meikei Yell had lost in 7th place although she had taken the lead as I hoped she would. She didn't seem to be disharmonized in the video, but I guess the lap wasn't that tight as I'd thought. You see, Meikei Yell is also the type that performs well when she takes the lead in a tight lap, just like Resistencia.

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6:51 p.m. I've been reviewing Keenland Cup. The lap could barely be called a tight lap, though not too excessively. Summing up Yutaka's coment after the race, Meikei Yell could be judged as self-destructive possibly, because she's lost her rhythm. The reason, I'm not sure. It could have been because her blank or it could be something else.

Looks like horses with power that can perform well even on dirt have done well. Perhaps the track condition demanded more power than I'd thought even though it was firm.

Another thing was that the 4, 5, 6 year-olds simply sucked compared to the once G1 champion, Seiun Kosei. Oops, 4-year-olds weren't even entered. That's why Eighteen Girl finished 2nd. If she could win last year in the same kind of flow, it's natural she drop her performance a bit to finish 2nd this year.

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5:38 p.m. Have started on my research for Niigata Kinen held this weekend, while dumping away unwanted things. It's amazing how many things one can pack up in a room in several decades. Imagine how daunting it could be when a chest has been discovered from behind a chest...

Back to Niigata Kinen. Not to mention I'm paying attention to 3-year-olds. So far Lagom is the only 3-year-old entered. There has been three 3-year-olds running Niigata Kinen in the past 10 years with Blast Onepiece winning and the other two losing in 4th and 10th place, respectively.

The point in selecting a 3-year-old that performs well seems to be whether you could judge if the horse has already reached its maturity and peaking out or not. Last year, Wakea has been the most favored but betrayed the support to lose in 10th place.

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Caterpillar