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7/01  My Bad All the Way

7:15 p.m. Quite disappointed with myself.

I've predicted the pace might become tight because there were many front runners and, that would make things tough for Casino Fountain. I've predicted that Omega Perfume probably won't do well because he was shortening the distance. I've recognized that the track condition was close to yielding. If the pace was going to be tight, I shouldn't have clung to my theory of previous race winners, since that was the last thing a tight race on a yielding track demands. Yet I didn't realize the need to change my call...

One reason is because I haven't had the time to think things over. Teioh-sho is annualy held on the week Takaraduka has finished and it's not easy for me to prepare in a day or two. Especially while preparations for another move is in action.

But that's merely an excuse. It's my bad all the way.

The End

Caterpillar

7/02  No Idea

5:55 p.m. Since I had a cancel in my meeting, I took a look at radio Nikkei-sho though I couldn't make heads nor tails. I have no idea what to do with this race. Not that I do wit CBC-sho held at Kokura this year. Last year it was held at Hanshin. CBC-sho was annually held at Chukyo. Thanks to the Kyoto rennovation, I've been swung around by the changes of location. It means a lot to me because I call races based on research including the past results.

Moreover, my motivation has dropped way down with the loss of both Takaraduka Kinen and Teioh-sho. What to do? I've barely recalled high-performers in Kokura usually have done well on Kokura turf before. But that information alone is far from what I need to call the race.

The barrier draws have already been announced. Perhaps if I know what the weather will be like (in Kokura), it might push my back a bit.

The End

Caterpillar

7/03  In the Midst

8:52 p.m. Summer races have started although we're in the midst of the rainy season here in Tokyo. I send my condolences to people in Shizuoka where there's been a debris flow disaster. Heavy rain is still expected from Tokai to Kanto area, so please stay safe everyone!

I did my best to call CBC-sho. Though I have no confidence due to my lack of motivation. I did what I could at this state however, whether I'll win or not only God knows.

Have keyed Pixie Knight on a wheel of Kurino Ariel, Biografie, Yoka Yoka, and A Will a Way. The Kokura turf seems to be very firm and fast and if the weather recovers as it's predicted to be, there will be another record-breaking day tomorrow I suppose.

The End

Caterpillar

7/04  Bickering

8:51 p.m. Bickering, "I knew I wouldn't win" drinking beer and lamenting.

I was hoping Yuichi and Pixie Knight would do what First Force has done. But then, Yuichi decided that the pace was too tight and held the horse back which turned out okay, since the pace was tight and Pixie Knight was able to hang on without breaking harmony.

First Force was completely a blind spot, though. Had I looked more closely, maybe I might have realized this horse could take the lead. And as I mentioned, Kokura turf is firm and fast. No trailer could win even in a tight race.

The End

Caterpillar

7/05  This Year's 3-Year-Olds

7:34 p.m. With the start of summer races, I've run through the results to see this year's 3-year-olds doing pretty well. Haven't put them down in numbers, but 3-year-olds are performing highly in every category. That's one of the reasons I keyed Pixie Knight in CBC-sho, by the way.

If a particular 3-year-old has enough potential to perform well in a particular race or category, I think it's better to go for them rather than the 4-year-olds (and 5-year-olds). When Shahryar won the D'erby, the winning record was 2 minutes 22.5 seconds. Contrail's that was 2 minutes 24.1 seconds, whereas Roger Barows finished in 2 minutes 22.6 seconds.

Although we can't simply compare them, I'd say 3-year-olds first, 5-yearolds, then 4-year-olds, given that they are all in good condition if I'm asked to put the 3 generations in order of priority. Especially, taking into account the disappointing performances of the older horses.

The End

Caterpillar

7/06  Tanabata-sho

6:22 p.m. Tis week it's Tanabata-sho, annually one of the wild races during summer. No wonder since tomorrow is Tanabata (the star festival) although we can't hope to see any stars tomorrow night. Actually, Tokyo is in the midst of the rainy season at this time of year, so we rarely get to celebrate Tanabata with all those bamboo decorations.

I hate to admit it but I've never won Tanabata-sho before. Not once in my life. However, I don't think I could win Procyon Stakes held in Kokura this year either, which is usually held in Chukyo. And the bad news is that there are no 3-yeaar-olds entered in either of these races...

I've run through te entrees of Tanabata-sho, though I have no idea which horse might do well. Perhaps Crescendo Love, last year's defending champion might finish within 3rd place because he performs outstandingly well on Fukushima turf. Yet I also think it won't be easy for the 7-year-old horse carrying the heaviest weight.

The End

Caterpillar

7/07  Faint Hope

7:31 p.m. Pulled out my notes on last year's Tanabata-sho with a faint hope to find at least a few clues.

There was an indecisive description of "after all, one of the top 3 favored horses do well in many cases," which is too indecisive to rely on. Another one said, "the horse carrying top weight could perform well if lighter weight carriers all sink." That's quite natural, I don't remember why I'd took that down in the first place.

At the end of my notes it says that I hadn't found a particular trend for Tanabata-sho, and that I shouldn't bet on races without proper strategy or clues...

The End

Caterpillar

7/08  Emergency State Announcement

7:58 p.m. I have to go home early tonight and yet there's still alot to do left... What have I been doing??? Ah yes, I've been bickering and cussing about the 4th Emergency State Announcement bound to be made. I'm quite fed up with it, thank you, especially when the U.S. is having the All Star game normally. Go Shohei!

As for Tanabata-sho, I still can't make heads nor tails but there's not much to do except for to start from checking out the top 3 favored. And the top 3 favored as of today seems to be Crescendo Love, Vin Quet Domingo, and Taurus Gemini.

The End

Caterpillar

7/09  One Step Forward

7:28 p.m. The barrier draw for Tanabata-sho has been announced. I'm still struggling but the draw has given me a tiny clue that the pace could become tight.

I'm not sure how the track condition would be however, if the pace becomes tight as it has often become in this race, horses that haven't performed too well in their previous races will have the advantage since they are free from left-over damage. One step forward.

The End

Caterpillar

7/10  As Usual

8:58 p.m. As usual, I've done the best I could with Tanabata-sho.

Although he's the top weight carrier, I'll key Crescendo Love. He's a Fukushima specialist and if his rivals' level has downgraded, there's a good chance the horse would become a defending champion. Even if he didn't win, I couldn't imagine the horse losing big just because of the weight.

On the wheel would be Rose Amour, Black Magic, Caudillo, Courageux Guerrier, and Precious Blue. I've cut out Ulster crying. I'll save him for Kokura. And I hate to be persistent, but please note that I haven't won Tanabata-sho, thanks.

The End

Caterpillar

7/11  Told You

6:52 p.m. I told you I haven't won. Crescendo Love (my key horse) has sunk way low in 14th place, although Rose Amour had done her job. Shouldn't have trusted a 7-year-old carrying top weight.

It seems contradictory to bet on a light-weighted horse like Rose Amour and a top carrier like Crescendo Love at the same time, come to think of it. I wasn't making sense at that point.

There's one thing I realized, though. I wonder if this could become a clue in winning the wild summer grade races?

The End

Caterpillar

7/12  Always Me Cleaning

8:00 p.m. Exhausted after cleaning up the room I'm supposed to live in for the next 4 months. Why am I cleaning both the room I'm going to stay in and the room I'm leaving? Why is it always me cleaning???

Anyway, I've just got down to the computer (and I've just launchd Windos for the first time today). Have taken a peek at last week's results and the entry form for Chukyo Kinen held on Kokura turf. Looks like Kokura turf is still firm and fast. Perhaps a horse like Dirndl would be a good choice.

I'm not sure about the turf condition in Hakodate, but it seems the last 3 furlongs are taking more than 35 seconds. If this is really the trend, maybe it will be a good idea to choose from front runners that have lost in 2nd to 4th place in their previous races. Descendants of say, Stay Gold, Gold Ship, Orfevre, some of Heart's Cry would be the target.

The End

Caterpillar

7/13  Always Me Cleaning

8:00 p.m. Exhausted after cleaning up the room I'm supposed to live in for the next 4 months. Why am I cleaning both the room I'm going to stay in and the room I'm leaving? Why is it always me cleaning???

Anyway, I've just got down to the computer (and I've just launchd Windos for the first time today). Have taken a peek at last week's results and the entry form for Chukyo Kinen held on Kokura turf. Looks like Kokura turf is still firm and fast. Perhaps a horse like Dirndl would be a good choice.

I'm not sure about the turf condition in Hakodate, but it seems the last 3 furlongs are taking more than 35 seconds. If this is really the trend, maybe it will be a good idea to choose from front runners that have lost in 2nd to 4th place in their previous races. Descendants of say, Stay Gold, Gold Ship, Orfevre, some of Heart's Cry would be the target.

The End

Caterpillar

7/14  No Clues

8:06 p.m. Again, very tired having had to carry my drawers down the narrow stairs from my room, then pulling it on a carrier and carrying it up again for another flight of stairs. Tired and all sweaty, ugh.

In a faint hope to find some clues, I've pulled up my notes from last year's Hakodate Kinen which I'd completely lost if my memory is correct. Only to find there were no notes whatsoever. No clues, huh?

The End

Caterpillar

7/15  Back and Forth

8:22 p.m. I'm sorry but I'm drained after going back and forth my apartment and my new room for several times, carrying things nearly the size of my own self.

Don't think I can move an inch more, let alone lift a finger to type.

The End

Caterpillar

7/16  A Couple of Clues

7:15 p.m. The barrier draw for Hakodate Kinen has been announced while I've been down by the sudden heat. The rainy season seems to be over for Kanto area. Have picked up a couple of clues, though.

It sems the inner osts are doing better than the outer. Post numbers 3 and 6 have good average followed by post number 4 in the past 10 years. Outer posts specifically post numbers 14 and outer, is not worth considering except for front runners. However, horses starting from outer posts that can sweep from the outside need a bit of attention when the pace becomes tight.

Additionally, monotonous type horses that averagely need 35 seconds to finish the last 3 furlongs have a better chance of high performance as I've guessed earlier.

The End

Caterpillar

7/17  Trying to Pick Up

8:34 p.m. I've been quite busy all week, what with the moving and all so I haven't had the time to do a thorough research like usual. I'm trying to just pick up some horses that might have a better shot at this race.

I think it's too risky to key Cafe Pharaoh. Only heaven knows whether the horse could handle Hakodate turf. My idea is to key Meiner Virtus instead, on a wheel of Cafe Pharaoh, World Winds, Ice Bubble, Taisei Trail, and Red Genial.

Don't think my call would be as credible as the next few days' weather forecast but then, it's never been that trustworthy anyway.

The End

Caterpillar

7/18  Tight Lap Against My Call

4:04 p.m. A big loss again, ha-ha. I couldn't even guess the pace right. It became a tight lap against my call so it turned out to be tough for front runners, except for Tosen Surya who was blessed with a great situation since he wouldn't have liked to be squashed in the field.

I thought that Meiner Virtus was also such a type, though the damage from his previous race - although he had a break must have backfired. Having seen his 6 kilogram weight loss despite the 3-months' break, I felt a twinge of suspicion which had eventually resulted in my loss.

The End

Caterpillar

7/19  Terrible Results

6:04 p.m. Ibis Summer Dash, the well-known summer Niigata's featured sprint race will be held this weekend. Don't think I've won this either. Summer races have brought me terrible results week after week as long as I can remember. It might be better to focus on lower category races rather than flushing down money on grade races, focusing on 3-year-olds.

Speaking of young horses, one of Kitasan Black's first crop Kona Black has won his maiden race. He might do well in a monotonous race, distances like 1800m or 2200m, on courses with tight corners or uphill. Average or high pace would be better.

The End

Caterpillar

7/20  But Then

4:51 p.m. Not all the racing forms for this weekend have been released yet and I could only see a few races held at Niigata and Hakodate, respectively. Still, feeling like it really might be a better idea to try those if I'm calling Ibis Summer Dash. But then, it might be better to stick with Ibis Summer Dash since there are a couple of trends that are unique to this race.

Ibis Summer Dash is notorious for advantages given to outer post horses. No matter how the pace or track condition becomes, somehow it's always horses starting from outer posts that perform well. Also, the finishing lap nearly always becomes fast regardless of the pace. That means instantaneous speed is important. Yet the entrees are usually turf sprint horses that tend to be monotonous type in many cases. Well, that's the confusing part.

Anyway, I'll see if I could find some notes about this race. After I get back from my ex-home. I need to have my old fridge, washing machine and vacuum picked up for unwanted items' collection.

The End

Caterpillar

7/21  6 Types to Avoid

2:53 p.m. Have done a terrible blunder yesterday... I'm still very much depressed and in chagrin as well, but would like to save that for later as I want to get out of this disgusting situation and pull myself together.

One good news though, is that I've found some notes from last year's Ibis Summer Dash. According to them, there are 6 types of the most favored horse to avoid although the most favored has been doing pretty well in this race.

The most favored you should avoid according to my notes is 1, have only won lower category race below open class, 2, carrying weight heavier than its previous race, 3, have performed too highly in its previous race after running 2 dirt races or by shortening the distance, 4, the 3rd entry of a former champion (of this race), 5, winning a Niigata 1000m race previously by a slight gap, and 6, winning its previous race taking the lead and also shortening the distance this time.

The End

Caterpillar

7/22  Mondreise

7:23 p.m. Currently, the most favored in expected win odds for Ibis Summer Dash seems to be Mondreise. And Modreise doesn't fall into any of the conditions my notes say. So perhaps it's okay to trust this horse.

Another tips from my notes. Horses that have lost below 10th place in their previous race should be candidates for the 3rd place as they rarely recover to finish within 3rd place. The conditions such candidates need to meet will be A, have won the class below open class, B, have performed highly in either 1400m or 1000m, and C, have taken position in the front in their previous race and lost given that the race was in tight lap.

That leaves Sepia Notes, Heroic Again, and Logi Cry. Better go now as the group league for Mens' Soccer will kick off.

The End

Caterpillar