7:53 p.m. We've had a thunderstorm in Tokyo (actually, we're having a second one right now) while it also seemed to have rained this afternoon in Hanshin. I'm not sure how heavily it rained as I couldn't watch TV at the time. Though it looks like it will clear up in Hanshin by tomorrow morning and the sudden rain expected in the afternoon would be slight. That means I have to get back to plan A.

If the turf dries before Tennnosho runs, it could become a fast track judging from today's race results. Unless the pace becomes tight, instantaneous speed and high aptitude for fast tracks will be necessary.

Adding it all up, I'm keying World Premiere. I've used a score scale in order to visualize the best horse to key and my scale says World Premiere, so World Premiere it is. On the wheel would be Aristoteles, Curren Bouquet d'Or, You Can Smile, Deep Bond, and Ocea Great. How's that?

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4:26 p.m. So the score scale has worked! Eventually, it didn't matter whichever I keyed World Premiere or Deep Bond, though I think it makes a difference to be able to key the horse that wins 1st place especially, when you're trying to win trifectas.

Another thing I discovered by using the score scale is that I could visualize which horse could perform better than another horse. I wasn't actually aiming for that however, the score scale helped visualizing the possibilities in an observative way. This would certainly expand my chances to win trifectas.

Still, there are some things I need to reflect on my future calls. I failed to work out the pace factor to the point of which horse would come before which if the pace was average or slow. This would be left as my next assignment, but let me just enjoy my win for today. Congrats to those who've won (including Yuichi and World Premiere)!

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6:27 p.m. It's the Golden Week (holiday week) in Japan. And our goverment is crying out loud to stay home to put out the spreading of corona virus before Mr. Bach comes. Why am I at my work place helping stupid Cow update the apps (39 of them) on his OS-updated smartphone? Where has my holiday gone?

In a state of undigestive unfairness, I pulled up the entry list for NHK Mile Cup but nothing struck me, nothing. I've just spat out everything I've got for Tenno-sho and I deserve some rest. Holiday! However, I'm forced to visit my dear mother tomorrow which would take a full day considering the distance. So where has my holiday gone?

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10:06 p.m. At my parents' house, I had to divide my belongings that I'd left behind into wanted and unwanted things as part of cleaning out the house. The house is planned to be rebuilt and we need to empty it in a couple of months. Then, I sat down to listen to my sister bickering about how my dear mother is bringing trouble after trouble. It made me laugh to think that now she's experiencing what I had gone through. Mine is history, though.

Actually, she's just got me involved in another trouble, too. I've been keeping the mail for a friend who's now back abroad for a while (because of the pandemic), and I've arranged all my mail to be forwarded when I moved. But somehow a few postcards and letters seem to have slipped out from the forwarding service, and unluckily I discovered there was one with payment due last month. The payment was for a membership fee with strict guidlines that membership would expire when payment was incomplete by the end of April. Darn, 4 days too late. I was going to visit the house on the 29th but rescheduled since the weather seemed bad, and I'd checked with my mother if there had been any mail unforwarded since I knew the payment should be coming around. My dear mother had said, "Oh, the usual ones. Payment? Not that I know of."

I wouldn't blame her if the postcard informing payment wasn't halfway opened. It's the kind you peel off to open to protect privacy. By the time I bought myself a little treat and got home to my place, I was flattened out. Not an ounce of energy left to think about NHK Mile.

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6:01 p.m. Was going to prepare well for NHK mile Cup during the Golden Week especially after I had some good results in Tenno-sho. I haven't done anything yet and the Golden Week is already ending.

The Emergency State Announcement? The media is busy crying out there has been 360 thousand infections a day in India, no 400 thousand, but that's merely 0.02% of India's whole population. Some research came out today said the death rate is actually 1% of the population. That means corona virus is getting weaker. That's why they are trying to raise their infectious capacity and losing their toxicity. They are on the brink of existing. At least, that's how I see it.

In Japan, Osaka now seems to be the hotspot. Still the number of detected infections are less than 8% of its population as of today, Tokyo less than 5% of its population. A year after the pandemic has started, I don't see what the emergency is in this country. Better get down to work now. Or maybe I should eat supper first.

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7:20 p.m. Finally began my research for NHK mile Cup belatedly. Well, I was just waiting for the entry to be closed as there were too many horses entered.

Horses entering this race from NZ Trophy don't usually do very well. I can almost hear someone naming Keiai Nautique, though that was an exception. Keiai Nautique is a Deep Impact descendant that performs very highly while young and focused. In fact, the horse performed well for his first 7 races never losing below 5th place. The only 4th place was in Asahi-hai (G1) only 3 lengths behind Danon Premium.

Things don't look good for Gold Chalice, City Rainbow, Time to Heaven, and Bathrat Leon.

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5:37 p.m. The barrier draw for NHK Mile Cup has been announced. Hope it will give me some clues since it's looking like a hard race to call.

Starting from inner posts don't seem to work as an advantage to me for Another Lyric, Bathrat Leon, Rickenbacker or even Time to Heaven, unless the pace becomes fast. On the other hand, Veil Nebula, Land of Liberty and Ho O Amazon all drew good posts. Lord Max, Gray in Green and Pixie Knight all dislike being squashed in the field, though I'm not sure if the outer posts would bring them good or bad until I check out the track condition.

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8:01 p.m. My slow start has affected and I haven't completely finished my call yet. So there may be a few changes by the time of NHK Mile Cup tomorrow.

For now I'm thinking to key Grenadier Guards. Stella Veloce, the 2nd place winner in Asahi-hai has proven that Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes was indeed at the level of a G1. The loss in Falcon Stakes wa only by a head. I think he's reliable enough. On the wheel would be Time to Heaven, Land of Liberty, Ho O Amazon, Schnell Meister, and Pixie Knight.

Once again, let me remind you that I haven't quite made up my mind yet. Will put all my ideas in a pot, stir it up, sleep on it and see what I come up with.

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4:28 p.m. I've taken some alergy drugs and couldn't get up till way past noon. It took me a lot of effort to crawl out of bed which left me little time before the race.

In my half-sleeping state, I've realized that it was going to be a fast track today so instantaneous speed was a must. Songline and Rickenbacker caught my eyes though I'd dismissed the idea since I couldn't decide which horse to replace. Certainly not Grenadier Guards or Schnell Meister. Should have done the score scale.

If I had enough time perhaps I'd been able to win a trio but the payout wasn't big so I'm letting it go. Sorry for Fujioka who fell at the start. That wasn't his fault as the horse stumbled quite seriously. I'd rather compliment Fujioka for hanging on, not being thrown ahead as that might have led to critical damage. I send my condolences to those who've bought tickets of the 3rd favored horse. Also to Cow, who'd been stirred up the bitter memory of Rugger Regulus.

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2:09 p.m. Reviewing yesterday's NHK Mile Cup. Have to start early since I have another dental surgeory coming up this afternoon while still on the way to recovery from a skin problem thanks to the silent pressure of wearing masks.

The pace could be considered relatively fast from the gap between first and last half of the clock. Therefore, horses shortening the distance like Schnell Meister had the advantage. If Stella Veloce had been running, I'm sure he must have done pretty well though we had no entries from Satsuki-sho this year. Pity. Songline and Grenadier Guards both weren't shortening distances, rather the contrary for Grenadier Guards, but they both had energy to spare.

Songline had lost big in her previous race Ohka-sho, which means she didn't perform her best, and she had nearly 2-months blank after Kobai Stakes where she proved she could perform well on fast tracks. Grenadier Guards also had a 3-months break after he won Asahi-hai. Both horses had high aptitude on fast tracks and enough energy left to perform well in a high-lapped mile G1.

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7:29 p.m. Okay, I'm starting early this week. Despite the dental surgery, despite my skin problems that itches like crazy.

So Victoria Mile Cup. As I look at the entry form, I get the impression that there are multiple horses that want to take the lead just like it was in last week's NHK mile Cup. Whether it would become a tight lap or not might be the key point in winning this race.

Resistencia performs well when the lap becomes tighter than her previous race. It would be easier for her to keep her rhythm and harmonize with the jockey that way. If the lap becomes tight though, horses shortening the distance would also have the advantage. Like that horse who lost against Lei Papale in her first challenge for 2000m, and now coming back to "her turf", 1600m. Of course you know who that is?

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7:21 p.m. Dutifully researching Victoria Mile Cup. Though not quite motivated as I think Gran Alegria will be the one. Before I lose my hope, let's take a look at last year's notes.

It says a lot about Hanshin Hinba Stakes runners... I must have been in deep regret. Hanshin Hinba Stakes winners don't do very well in Victoria Mile unless they've had an easy win, says my notes. Only then, they would have a slight chance if and when the race condition of Victoria Mile meet their advantage points. Looks like it won't be easy for Des Ailes, even if she draws an outer post.

Magic Castle, the 2nd place winner in Hanshin Hinba Stakes seems to have a better chance, if she could recover her lost weight. But then, the loss was possibly from thr long trip to Hanshin, and it's likely that she'll recover with a shorter trip to her homeground.

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6:36 p.m. From the past 10 years of results, the most favored horses don't seem to perform up to their expectations and half of them have lost miserably below 4th place. Hmmm, I shall be very careful with Gran Alegria then. Don't see any big risks for Gran Alegria for now, but you never know.

Instantaneous speed is a must, along with high aptitude on fast tracks. It's likely for top performers to finish the last 3 furlongs less than 34 seconds. Well, depending on the pace, though. There are only two times in the past 10 years when horses running the last 3 furlongs over 35 seconds finished within 3rd place, 2011 and 2015. 2011 has the tightest lap in 10 years so it's understandable. As for 2015, the pace wasn't so fast but the 3rd place winner was a long shot who took the lead, called Minaret. Ah, I remember that one.

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5:09 p.m. The barrier draw for Victoria Mile Cup has been announced.

Aw, Resistencia, the outmost post! Yutaka will have to take the lead but it won't be easy as there are rivals. And Gran Alegria has drawn post number 6. Woah. This is gonna make things harder. Don't think it could be an advantage unless the pace becomes slow which is unlikely to happen considering this barrier draw. Rather, the possibility of bcoming a tight pace has risen. But if the pace becomes tight, wouldn't it advantage the horses shortening the distance? Very much confused.

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8:50 p.m. Sorry it took so long,I've been lost in the labyrinth. Really had a hard time making up my mind and I'm still uncertain because I can't be positive about the pace of the race.

After much thought, I decided to key Gran Alegria. Sorry again for such a plain decision, but couldn't think of a reason she could lose below 4th place unless she has peaked out which is something you can't tell at this moment.

On the wheel would be Magic Castle, Maltese Diosa, Terzetto, Sound Chiara, and Resistencia. Though if Terzetto loses weight, I might replace her with Iberis. This is the best I could do for now.

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5:32 p.m. It was such an easy win for Gran Alegria. Just like Christophe said in his winning jockey interview, the horse is obviously in a different level (compared to her competitors today).

Despite the entry of not a few front runners, the pace was slow which I least expected. I thought it would be anything but slow, and then no one shifted up presenting a (easy-)winning race for Gran Alegria. Makes me feel stupid, really. What was all that thinking for? Give me back my wasted time and energy!

I hate to have to say this but... no, let's leave it for tomorrow.

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6:27 p.m. I've been saying time and again, that I hate to see horses ridden badly. They are living (beautiful) creatures with a lifetime and their prime don't last long.

Given that, I believe humans are responsible for drawing out the best of a racing horse. That's what the stables are for, that's why stable crews are necessary, and that's what jockies are for. A horse like Resistencia cannot perform well in a slow-paced instantaneous speed contest, because she doesn't have that type of speed. What options does she have to win a G1, let's say yesterday's Victoria Mile Cup for example? The only option she had was to take the lead and push at a tight lap.

I understand that Resistencia would be fatigued in the homestretch. She would become a good target to take over. However, the horse performs better when the race lap becomes tighter than her previous race, if and when her condition isn't bad. Then, there are no other way left but to believe in this horse's outstanding speed and just let her go. Only then, after she has succeeded in coming back as a top horse, there will be the next options of staying back or sweeping.

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7:15 p.m. Let's move on. We're having the Japanese Oaks this weekend.

Sodashi would definitely gain attraction. I know, you know, we all know. Though I doubt her winning the 2nd crown. There are a couple of reasons for that. One, her distance range doesn't include over 2200m two, she has been performing highly by either shortening the distance or unchanging it, and three, she hasn't lost a race yet.

Reason one and two comes from her breeding background. As Sodashi is still young, there is a chance she might get over the distance however, she performs better in a tighter lap or on tougher turf condition which is unlikely to happen this weekend. The five races in her career that she's never lost only suggests fatigue and stress. Therefore, I won't have the guts to key her, no.

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7:13 p.m. Then which horse should I key? I shall pick my choice from horses that have experienced Ohka-sho. Having raced in a G1 (top category race) previously is both valuable and important when competing in another G1 race. However, the experience is a double edge sword in the sense that it consumes the horse's energy in physical and mental terms.

My key horse to look for should have raced in Ohka-sho, yet having little or no physical, mental left-over damage. The horse should also have some advantages in barrier draw, track condition, pace (need to guess that one, though), the flow of the race (whether it would be monotonous or instantaneous), and in extending the distance from a mile to a mile and a half.

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7:28 p.m. Sorry to keep you waiting, I've been quite tied up. So here's the barrier draw for the Oaks.

Looks like most entrees have drawn good posts. I think Sodashi's post number 11 is not a bad draw for the horse however, post numbers 11 and 12 haven't finished within 3rd place in the past 10 years except for Whale Capture's 3rd place back in 2011.

And the annual lucky post number 1 and 2 have been drawn by Kukuna and Through Seven Seas. Remember though, that they won't mean a thing if the respective horses don't have the potential to win a G3, at least.

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7:59 p.m. Hectic again. And also sleep deprived. The peak of my workload usually comes near the end of the week. Sigh.

Haven't been able to do my research thoroughly, but it looks as though Sodashi might perform well if not winning considering the other competitors. If the pace becomes slow or more better average, she might be able to do well. Not that I'll key her. Unless something unexpected comes up tomorrow to make me change my mind.

Will go home now, try to get in bed earlier so as to work harder tomorrow.

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9:33 p.m. I've tried everyone, I've tried. But I just couldn't draw out the conclusion. I'm sorry.

So far, I've narrowed down to 7 horses, Cool Cat, Akaitorino Musume, Uberleben, Enthusiasm, Sodashi, Fine Rouge, and Stellaria, though I don't think I could work any longer. I'm not feeling very well at the moment and I'm not sure if I could buy betting tickets tomorrow. I'm really sorry.

For now I'm thinking either Akaitori or Uberleben could be a better choice to key however, tired and in bad shape as I am, I can't make up my mind.

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4:54 p.m. I got up in time to buy betting tickets and barely made it for the Oaks. I'm feeling better now, thanks.

The results however, was quite unexpected. I mean, I'd expected it would be difficult for Sodashi, though didn't think that Hagino Pilina from lower category would perform so well. Actually, better than the Ohka-sho runners or trial race winners. This suggests that the potential gap between trial horses or female classic front runners and horses from lower category, say 5 million yen class winners who've only won 1 or 2 races, isn't that big. At least, not among the current female 3-year-olds.

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7:47 p.m. This week is the D'erby week. I'm flooded with tasks from the start of the week, though... Wonder why everything must happen all at once.

In order not to repeat the hellish weekend, I shall somehow make time. But how? I need to review Oaks to win D'erby, and then scrutinize the entrees while handling everyday plus alpha workload. I fear this can't be accomplished by just managing time. There's just too much on my table.

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8:09 p.m. Have been reviewing Oaks. The only two reasons I could think of which made Hagino Pilika perform well is that the race tilted to the monotonous side, and that actually, there isn't such a huge gap between the competitors excluding Sodashi.

The winner being Uberleben backs up the monotonus race theory, as Uberleben also does well in such races. Yet, Uberleben and Hagini Pilika both had enough instantaneous speed to perform highly on the fast track of Tokyo. We can see that from their past five races, that both horses' last 3 furlongs clock belonged in the top three in all of their past 4 or 5 races.

I thought this was an important factor so I'd checked it out in my hellish state last weekend, to find only 4 horses that met this requirement, Through Seven Seas, Hagino Pilina, Uberleben, and Steralia. I'd given up Through Seven Seas for her left-over damage, Steralia for her outmost post, and Hagino Pilika because of the fatigue she must have for running long distance races with such short intervals. So what decided Through Seven Seas and Hagino Pilika's fate?

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6:36 p.m. Before proceeding with the Oaks review, I'd like to apologize. I've been typing Hagino Pilika all the while but it was a mistake I'm truly sorry. The horse's name is Hagino Pilina to be correct.

That said, let me get back to Through Seven Seas and Hagino Pilina.

Actually, Through Seven Seas and Hagino Pilina both perform well in a monotonous race. Through Seven Seas has performed well on Nakayama mid range distance which tend to be monotonous if the pace dosen't slacken. Hagino Pilina has performed well on Hanshin 2200m that also tend to become monotonous. Both horses have covered the last 3 furlongs in each race within the top 3 fastest lap, but their clock show lukewarm lap time hovering between 35 and 36 seconds, not 33 or 34 seconds, the zapping instantaneous speed you often see in Deep Impact descendants.

Okay, so both horses are the monotonous type. What pushed up Hagino Pilina up to 2nd place and dropped Through Seven Seas to 9th? Stress and fatigue, in other words left-over damage. Through Seven Seas have won her previous race Mimosa Stakes by sweeping up from behind. This consumes a lot of energy. Plus, the track condition was quite soft. She'd lost 12 kg despite her sufficient interval before the Mimosa Stakes, and she lost 6kg more at the time of the Oaks, although she didn't have to go through long-distance transportation. The continuing weight loss points out that the horse was tired.

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6:31 p.m. Still in the middle of the Oaks review but the barrier draw for D'erby has been announced so let's put it aside and take a look.

Victipharus drew a post that draws attention considering he's a Heart's Cry descendant, though might need more advantages such as soft track or tight pace in order to make a come back from Satsuki-sho, thanks to his sireline. Same goes for Gratias.

It might be difficult for Satono Reinas while having uneasiness in the extension of distance. In his honest thoughts, Christophe may want to keep her in the back to save the loss of stamina, but then he needs a good position starting from this outer post. It's a dilenma.

And the lucky post number 1 goes to Efforia! Sometimes it makes me think the barrier draws are actually fixed.

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7:56 p.m. Working hard to prepare for D'erby.

It really depends on the pace IMHO. If it becomes an average pace, it would become a race resembling last week. If the pace becomes slow, it would become an instantaneous speed contest and horses drawing inner posts would have the advantage. If it becomes a tight lap, well, monotonous type horses that didn't perform well in their previous races would have the advantage.

Don't think it would become a tight lap at the moment, even though Bathrat Leon would probably take the lead if he doesn't stumble at the start again. Still, you never know about the pace no, not really, until the race actually run.

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8:32 p.m. Still undecided. Need to boil down a bit more. Sorry this has to take the form of an interim report.

Whoever has common sense wll have to key Efforia after seeing Satsuki-sho. I believe the distance extension probably won't be a disadvantage for this horse, so if he could win this race, he'll win Kikka-sho, too. Satono Reinas on the other hand, is a pain. If the pace slackens, she will have the advantage of her 2kg lighter weight and Christophe would ride her well taking in the outer post.

Will put her on the wheel for now together with Victipharus, Shahryar, Great Magician, and Admire Hadar. Though I'm still not sure which to take of the 2 Hearts' Cry descendants Victipharus and Gratias, while also being torn cutting out Yoho Lake and Stella Veloce.

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9:24 p.m. I should have included Stella Veloce instead of Admire Hadar.

It hit me late last night that perhaps Admire Hadar wasn't a good choice having drawn an outer post but then, I just couldn't be sure about Stella Veloce., whenter the distance extension would turn out good for him or bad. Judging from his pedigree, it would be better if the distance was shortened or the track condition soft unless the race was run in average to tight pace. I thought he would have a hard time in harmonizing. And then, this.

It's a least blessing I'd bought a bit of exactas keying Efforia on 2nd place.

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7:18 p.m. D'erby's lap was slow judging from the furlong lap record. It wasn't a race for Efforia in that sense, though hte horse has high potential so he didn't lose big. The top 3 horses all hit the fastest lap in the last 3 furlongs meaning, what decided their results was the position each took.

The performance of Stella Veloce still remains a mystery to me however, he could be closer to his broodmare sire Deep Impact considering his race performance up until now, rather than his sire Bago. Chrono Genesis is well known as a Bago descendant, but her broodmare sire is Kurofune so she's on the monotonous side. I'd referred to that and made the mistake of cutting out Stella Veloce.

FYI, the finishing time was remarkable compared to the past couple of years. Maybe this year's 3-year-olds would beat the older horses in fall.

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Caterpillar