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2021/ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

5/01  Plan A

7:53 p.m. We've had a thunderstorm in Tokyo (actually, we're having a second one right now) while it also seemed to have rained this afternoon in Hanshin. I'm not sure how heavily it rained as I couldn't watch TV at the time. Though it looks like it will clear up in Hanshin by tomorrow morning and the sudden rain expected in the afternoon would be slight. That means I have to get back to plan A.

If the turf dries before Tennnosho runs, it could become a fast track judging from today's race results. Unless the pace becomes tight, instantaneous speed and high aptitude for fast tracks will be necessary.

Adding it all up, I'm keying World Premiere. I've used a score scale in order to visualize the best horse to key and my scale says World Premiere, so World Premiere it is. On the wheel would be Aristoteles, Curren Bouquet d'Or, You Can Smile, Deep Bond, and Ocea Great. How's that?

The End

Caterpillar

5/02  The Score Scale

4:26 p.m. So the score scale has worked! Eventually, it didn't matter whichever I keyed World Premiere or Deep Bond, though I think it makes a difference to be able to key the horse that wins 1st place especially, when you're trying to win trifectas.

Another thing I discovered by using the score scale is that I could visualize which horse could perform better than another horse. I wasn't actually aiming for that however, the score scale helped visualizing the possibilities in an observative way. This would certainly expand my chances to win trifectas.

Still, there are some things I need to reflect on my future calls. I failed to work out the pace factor to the point of which horse would come before which if the pace was average or slow. This would be left as my next assignment, but let me just enjoy my win for today. Congrats to those who've won (including Yuichi and World Premiere)!

The End

Caterpillar

5/03  Holiday Gone

6:27 p.m. It's the Golden Week (holiday week) in Japan. And our goverment is crying out loud to stay home to put out the spreading of corona virus before Mr. Bach comes. Why am I at my work place helping stupid Cow update the apps (39 of them) on his OS-updated smartphone? Where has my holiday gone?

In a state of undigestive unfairness, I pulled up the entry list for NHK Mile Cup but nothing struck me, nothing. I've just spat out everything I've got for Tenno-sho and I deserve some rest. Holiday! However, I'm forced to visit my dear mother tomorrow which would take a full day considering the distance. So where has my holiday gone?

The End

Caterpillar

5/04  Involved in Trouble

10:06 p.m. At my parents' house, I had to divide my belongings that I'd left behind into wanted and unwanted things as part of cleaning out the house. The house is planned to be rebuilt and we need to empty it in a couple of months. Then, I sat down to listen to my sister bickering about how my dear mother is bringing trouble after trouble. It made me laugh to think that now she's experiencing what I had gone through. Mine is history, though.

Actually, she's just got me involved in another trouble, too. I've been keeping the mail for a friend who's now back abroad for a while (because of the pandemic), and I've arranged all my mail to be forwarded when I moved. But somehow a few postcards and letters seem to have slipped out from the forwarding service, and unluckily I discovered there was one with payment due last month. The payment was for a membership fee with strict guidlines that membership would expire when payment was incomplete by the end of April. Darn, 4 days too late. I was going to visit the house on the 29th but rescheduled since the weather seemed bad, and I'd checked with my mother if there had been any mail unforwarded since I knew the payment should be coming around. My dear mother had said, "Oh, the usual ones. Payment? Not that I know of."

I wouldn't blame her if the postcard informing payment wasn't halfway opened. It's the kind you peel off to open to protect privacy. By the time I bought myself a little treat and got home to my place, I was flattened out. Not an ounce of energy left to think about NHK Mile.

The End

Caterpillar

5/05  Emergency

6:01 p.m. Was going to prepare well for NHK mile Cup during the Golden Week especially after I had some good results in Tenno-sho. I haven't done anything yet and the Golden Week is already ending.

The Emergency State Announcement? The media is busy crying out there has been 360 thousand infections a day in India, no 400 thousand, but that's merely 0.02% of India's whole population. Some research came out today said the death rate is actually 1% of the population. That means corona virus is getting weaker. That's why they are trying to raise their infectious capacity and losing their toxicity. They are on the brink of existing. At least, that's how I see it.

In Japan, Osaka now seems to be the hotspot. Still the number of detected infections are less than 8% of its population as of today, Tokyo less than 5% of its population. A year after the pandemic has started, I don't see what the emergency is in this country. Better get down to work now. Or maybe I should eat supper first.

The End

Caterpillar

5/06  Was Waiting

7:20 p.m. Finally began my research for NHK mile Cup belatedly. Well, I was just waiting for the entry to be closed as there were too many horses entered.

Horses entering this race from NZ Trophy don't usually do very well. I can almost hear someone naming Keiai Nautique, though that was an exception. Keiai Nautique is a Deep Impact descendant that performs very highly while young and focused. In fact, the horse performed well for his first 7 races never losing below 5th place. The only 4th place was in Asahi-hai (G1) only 3 lengths behind Danon Premium.

Things don't look good for Gold Chalice, City Rainbow, Time to Heaven, and Bathrat Leon.

The End

Caterpillar

5/07  Looking Like

5:37 p.m. The barrier draw for NHK Mile Cup has been announced. Hope it will give me some clues since it's looking like a hard race to call.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Raymond Barows
2Another Lyric
3Rooks Nest
4Bathrat Leon
5Rickenbacker
6City Rinbow
7Time to Heaven
8Grenadier Guards
9Gold Chalice
10Songline
11Veil Nebula
12Land of Liberty
13Ho O Amazon
14Shock Action
15Schnell Meister
16Lord Max
17Gray in Green
18Pixie Knight

Starting from inner posts don't seem to work as an advantage to me for Another Lyric, Bathrat Leon, Rickenbacker or even Time to Heaven, unless the pace becomes fast. On the other hand, Veil Nebula, Land of Liberty and Ho O Amazon all drew good posts. Lord Max, Gray in Green and Pixie Knight all dislike being squashed in the field, though I'm not sure if the outer posts would bring them good or bad until I check out the track condition.

The End

Caterpillar

5/08  Slow Start

8:01 p.m. My slow start has affected and I haven't completely finished my call yet. So there may be a few changes by the time of NHK Mile Cup tomorrow.

For now I'm thinking to key Grenadier Guards. Stella Veloce, the 2nd place winner in Asahi-hai has proven that Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes was indeed at the level of a G1. The loss in Falcon Stakes wa only by a head. I think he's reliable enough. On the wheel would be Time to Heaven, Land of Liberty, Ho O Amazon, Schnell Meister, and Pixie Knight.

Once again, let me remind you that I haven't quite made up my mind yet. Will put all my ideas in a pot, stir it up, sleep on it and see what I come up with.

The End

Caterpillar

5/09  Letting Go

4:28 p.m. I've taken some alergy drugs and couldn't get up till way past noon. It took me a lot of effort to crawl out of bed which left me little time before the race.

In my half-sleeping state, I've realized that it was going to be a fast track today so instantaneous speed was a must. Songline and Rickenbacker caught my eyes though I'd dismissed the idea since I couldn't decide which horse to replace. Certainly not Grenadier Guards or Schnell Meister. Should have done the score scale.

If I had enough time perhaps I'd been able to win a trio but the payout wasn't big so I'm letting it go. Sorry for Fujioka who fell at the start. That wasn't his fault as the horse stumbled quite seriously. I'd rather compliment Fujioka for hanging on, not being thrown ahead as that might have led to critical damage. I send my condolences to those who've bought tickets of the 3rd favored horse. Also to Cow, who'd been stirred up the bitter memory of Rugger Regulus.

The End

Caterpillar

5/10  Starting Early

2:09 p.m. Reviewing yesterday's NHK Mile Cup. Have to start early since I have another dental surgeory coming up this afternoon while still on the way to recovery from a skin problem thanks to the silent pressure of wearing masks.

The pace could be considered relatively fast from the gap between first and last half of the clock. Therefore, horses shortening the distance like Schnell Meister had the advantage. If Stella Veloce had been running, I'm sure he must have done pretty well though we had no entries from Satsuki-sho this year. Pity. Songline and Grenadier Guards both weren't shortening distances, rather the contrary for Grenadier Guards, but they both had energy to spare.

Songline had lost big in her previous race Ohka-sho, which means she didn't perform her best, and she had nearly 2-months blank after Kobai Stakes where she proved she could perform well on fast tracks. Grenadier Guards also had a 3-months break after he won Asahi-hai. Both horses had high aptitude on fast tracks and enough energy left to perform well in a high-lapped mile G1.

The End

Caterpillar

5/11  Despite

7:29 p.m. Okay, I'm starting early this week. Despite the dental surgery, despite my skin problems that itches like crazy.

So Victoria Mile Cup. As I look at the entry form, I get the impression that there are multiple horses that want to take the lead just like it was in last week's NHK mile Cup. Whether it would become a tight lap or not might be the key point in winning this race.

Resistencia performs well when the lap becomes tighter than her previous race. It would be easier for her to keep her rhythm and harmonize with the jockey that way. If the lap becomes tight though, horses shortening the distance would also have the advantage. Like that horse who lost against Lei Papale in her first challenge for 2000m, and now coming back to "her turf", 1600m. Of course you know who that is?

The End

Caterpillar

5/12  Before I Lose Hope

7:21 p.m. Dutifully researching Victoria Mile Cup. Though not quite motivated as I think Gran Alegria will be the one. Before I lose my hope, let's take a look at last year's notes.

It says a lot about Hanshin Hinba Stakes runners... I must have been in deep regret. Hanshin Hinba Stakes winners don't do very well in Victoria Mile unless they've had an easy win, says my notes. Only then, they would have a slight chance if and when the race condition of Victoria Mile meet their advantage points. Looks like it won't be easy for Des Ailes, even if she draws an outer post.

Magic Castle, the 2nd place winner in Hanshin Hinba Stakes seems to have a better chance, if she could recover her lost weight. But then, the loss was possibly from thr long trip to Hanshin, and it's likely that she'll recover with a shorter trip to her homeground.

The End

Caterpillar

5/13  The Past 10 Years

6:36 p.m. From the past 10 years of results, the most favored horses don't seem to perform up to their expectations and half of them have lost miserably below 4th place. Hmmm, I shall be very careful with Gran Alegria then. Don't see any big risks for Gran Alegria for now, but you never know.

Instantaneous speed is a must, along with high aptitude on fast tracks. It's likely for top performers to finish the last 3 furlongs less than 34 seconds. Well, depending on the pace, though. There are only two times in the past 10 years when horses running the last 3 furlongs over 35 seconds finished within 3rd place, 2011 and 2015. 2011 has the tightest lap in 10 years so it's understandable. As for 2015, the pace wasn't so fast but the 3rd place winner was a long shot who took the lead, called Minaret. Ah, I remember that one.

The End

Caterpillar

5/14  Make Things Harder

5:09 p.m. The barrier draw for Victoria Mile Cup has been announced.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Magic Castle
2Shigeru Pink Dia
3Christie
4Iberis
5Des Ailes
6Gran Alegria
7Maltese Diosa
8Rambling Alley
9Terzetto
10Red Belle Deesse
11Danon Fantasy
12Sound Chiara
13Pourville
14Dirndl
15Affranchir
16Ria Amelia
17Smile Kana
18Resistencia

Aw, Resistencia, the outmost post! Yutaka will have to take the lead but it won't be easy as there are rivals. And Gran Alegria has drawn post number 6. Woah. This is gonna make things harder. Don't think it could be an advantage unless the pace becomes slow which is unlikely to happen considering this barrier draw. Rather, the possibility of bcoming a tight pace has risen. But if the pace becomes tight, wouldn't it advantage the horses shortening the distance? Very much confused.

The End

Caterpillar