7:38 p.m. Have been feeling drowsy for a while but have recovered miraculously. I was troubled by indecision before being hit by drowsiness though it seems you get back into focus when sleepiness is gone. My mind is made up.

Fully awake and clearheaded, am cutting out Namura Clair. She's been constantly performing highly since Fillies' Review, it's time she could crash with fatigue while she needs to be transported long distance from Ritto to Nakayama.

Am keying Win Marvel, feeling grateful he drew an inner post. On the wheel would be T M Spada, Naran Huleg, Meikei Yell and Schnell Meister.

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Caterpillar

6:19 p.m. Almost! I almost got it but then my friend's prediction that horses starting from post number one mostly tend to fail at the start has sadly came true. T M Spada screwed her start to use up more energy thatn necessary.

As a result, T M Spada had to rush off to take the lead and the race went into a tight lap which I didn't expect. Gendarme who easily positioned (and followed) in the front row sprang out at the homestretch to win. Gendarme... again, just as I gave up on him. I've been chasing after him for some years now, hoping he would come back like the time he came in 2nd in Hopeful Stakes.

Must review horses I'd chased after but have won after I gave up on them like Verxina, Lucky Lilac, Lys Gracieux, Titleholder, First Force. I think there were more.

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6:19 p.m. Feeling a tiny bit of confidence in my Sprinters' Stakes results. Still, I need to keep on working to improve my own performance.

In frustration of leaving out Gendarme, I've bought betting tickets for Prix de Arc for the first time only to deepen my wounds. Judging from the results, Japanese horse racing world should raise more powerful horses that could perform well on Longchamp turf if they want to win the Arc. Japanese horses are too specialized in racing on fast firm turf, they're no match with the powerful horses of Europe especially, when the track condition becomes soft.

Titleholder is one of the powerful front-runners but got tired 300m too early. Though I can't say with certainty that his loss was irrelevant to the stress from winning both Tenno-sho (spring) and Takaraduka Kinen. As for Do Deuce, I'm afraid the horse won't perform well in a G1 any more unless he's going to run until 7 or 8 years old. Deep wounds take a long time to heal.

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6:45 p.m. We're having a holiday next Monday so the races will be held 3 days from Saturday the 8th to Monday the 10th. And on this second (to third) week of October, Mainichi Ohkan will be held at Tokyo while Kyoto Dai-shoten is taking place at Hanshin. Incidentally, this year would be the last to see this confusing situation of Kyoto Dai-shoten being held at Hanshin, because Kyoto Race Course's rennovation is said to finish by next spring and the race would be held back in Kyoto next year.

Last year, Kyoto Dai-shoten has become a wild race with old Makahiki winning, although it wasn't a full-field race. There seems to be only 14 horses entered at this point, but I think it would be more interesting than Mainichi Ohkan with merely 10 or even less horses running on that wide Tokyo course.

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6:39 p.m. Looking at the entry form for Mainichi Ohkan just in case. Currently only 10 horses enterd.

Rain is expected until next Monday, meaning that the race could be run on soft track. If so, it's likely that front runners and inner post starters will have the advantage except when there's a trailer with outstanding instantaneous speed starting from outer posts.

Whether it rains or shines, it's going to be a record-breaking fast track with Tokyo races just beginning. Fast time record is a must for high-performers.

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4:42 p.m. The entry has been closed and Mainichi Ohkan has been confirmed to run with just 10 horses.

The weather forecast on the other hand has been unstable and Saturday has suddenly announced to be sunny. As mentioned yesterday, either way it's likely to become an instantaneous speed contest which would probably benefit horses like Justin Cafe, Danon the Kid or possibly, Kingston Boy.

As for Kyoto Dai-shoten, slight rain is expected over the weekend so better be on alert. It could also become an instantaneous speed contest depending on the track condition, but then Hanshin is a more power-consuming course than Tokyo. Will get down to working tomorrow.

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7:35 p.m. The barrier draw for Mainichi Ohkan has been confirmed. Hate to sound yappy, but outer post drawers don't seem to have a chance in my opinion.

The inner-most post is good for Red Belle Aube as he could easily take the lead if he wants to, though something like I saw last week with T M Spada could happen. That said, it would be North Bridge who can take the best position marking Red Belle Aube.

Salios and Danon the Kid also drew the better inner posts. However, Danon the Kid is tricky as he tenses up before the race. Might as well be careful. As for Lei Papale, Potager and Kingston Boy, they were not just unlucky for drawing outer posts. I think it's going to be quite difficult to come back from their previous results.

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7:49 p.m. Have struggled to keep my motivation partly drowsing. Mainichi Ohkan is like a warm-up before Kyoto Dai-shoten to me and I wasn't much interested in it from the start. I miss the Mainichi Ohkan that went down in history with Grass Wonder, Silence Suzuka and El Condor Pasa racing against each other. The grade for Mainichi Ohkan has long dropped inside me since then.

Have grudgingly keyed Danon the Kid because he drew an inner post and has instantaneous speed. Can't trust Salios after he performed well in Yasuda Kinen. On the wheel would be Red Belle Aube, North Bridge, Salios (in case), Kingston Boy, and Justin Cafe.

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7:29 p.m. Feeling good having finished cleaning the house, I sat down to watch Mainichi Ohkan. Was feeling good until Danon the Kid did a false start. Where have you dropped your concentration, Mr. Tozaki? I thought Kendo was a sport that needs high concentration?

2,110 yen wasn't much of a payout but a win's a win. Encouraging, considering tomorrow's Kyoto Dai-shoten. All in good mood, am keying Win Mighty for Kyoto Dai-shoten. I thik it's either Win Mighty or Vela Azul, but chose Win Mighty.

On the wheel would be Boccherini, Red Galant, Diastima, Vela Azul, and Diamant Minoru. I'm afraid it's going to be another instantaneous speed contest as I mentioned earlier.

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6:34 p.m. Although the payout was low again because it was the most favored in trio, have won two races in a row for a change. Still, 3,000 yen was lucky enough as the most favored.

Winning betting tickets on the favored side is an important step in winning race tickets. If you can't even win a race that many people could win, how would you win a race that few people win? Thus, I'm accepting the results of these two races a step forward, forward to winning a big payout someday.

Have had a breakthrough (at least I thought it was a breakthrough) in spring and thought I could take a leap with it, but the summer race results was terrible so I've got confused. Think I'm getting back on track which definitely must be a good sign with the G1 races coming right around the corner. Sprinters' Stakes wasn't all that bad, come to think of it. Let me review it once again and brace up for Shuka-sho.

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7:28 p.m. Have just finished reviewing Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Dai-shoten. Also checked out Sprinters' Stakes. It can't be missed to win more races.

Scanning through the entry form for Shuka-sho, having finished my reviews. Can't be certain no, not at this point but Stars on Earth seems quite hard to beat if her condition is good. Will dig into my notes tomorrow and see if I can find any clues.

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6:15 p.m. Don't have much time today as I have a zoom meeting with a friend later. So just a tip from my early afternoon research.

Shuka-sho will once again be held at Hanshin this year, for the last time since it will be back in Kyoto from next year. Races run on Hanshin turf 2000m rarely seems to become tight pace because there are four corners with an uphill (on the homestretch) soon after the start. Last year the pace was average and horses with instantaneous speed as well as power performed well.

It's a pity that last year is the only sample I could refer to though the outcome of this year's Shuka-sho is likely to follow the similar trend. On the premise the pace doesn't become tight, horses that performed well in their previous races have better chances than horses trying to come back from a huge loss, unless there are good reasons for their losses.

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7:02 p.m. The entry for Shuka-sho has been closed and there will be 16 horses running. Unfortunately, Pin High couldn't make it but it's going to be a full-field race (for Hanshin) this year, and who knows, maybe Love Pyro might perform well instead.

Have proceeded with my research to confirm that outer posts in a full-field race are disadvantaged. No surprise there. Also, front-runners perform better than horses staying behind. No surprise again, I've been down this road before.

With that in mind, I'll have to leave the rest up to the barrier draw (released tomorrow) and the weather while I work on my preparation.

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6:41 p.m. The barrier draw for Shuka-sho is out. Let's take a look.

From the way the horses are lined up, there's a slight chance the pace could become tight. It would be a wild race in that case however, if Bright on Base takes the lead smoothly it would probably settle as average.

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8:40 p.m. As it's a G1, I've struggled as usual. Especially, when Stars on Earth is just comng back from fracture. It would have been much easier if she'd run a prep race, but you have to do the best with what you've got and only God knows whether there'll be another triple (filly) crown winner or not.

Considering the risk that Stars on Earth is still not in good shape, have keyed Namur since I thought the only horse that could match Stars on Earth with instantaneous speed was Namur.

On the wheel would be Win Eclair (why, of course), Memory Raison, Stunning Rose, Stars on Earth, and Sound Vivace.

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6:25 p.m. It was around noon when I noticed an article that said something like the schedule directly from Oaks could be dangerous drug. It somehow evoked the results of Osaka-hai when Lei Papale won from an outer post.

Then I recalled that horses shortening distance to Osaka-hai rarely performed well and probaly from anxiety, linked that to Shuka-sho although the situation was utterly different. One acts fast when driven by anxiety. In a flash, I ditched my well-tought call I wrote here yesterday to key Sound Vivace instead of Namur, while replacing Stunning Rose with Presage Lift.

It's a typical failure driven by anxiety. Darn me, stupid me, stupid me. A low-payout win was much better than a loss. Let me say again, stupid me, stupid me. Though I'm sending congrats to Ryusei Sakai for winning his first G1. About time!

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7:21 p.m. Have reflected seriously on Shuuka-sho and listed up ways to avoid the same mistake. It was a painful task and I'm not sure if they'd work out but it's better than doing nothing.

Taking a peek on Kikka-sho to cheer myself up a bit. Gaia Force would probably the most favored as he has won Centlight Kinen plus he's a Kitasan Black descendant. There seem to be fans projecting his father on Gaia Force however, it's a completely different horse. Whether he'd perform well in a distance he's never run is a question.

Another horse of concern is Justin Palace. I'm rather at a loss in measuring his strengths for the moment.

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7:10 p.m. Remembering last year's Kikka-sho which was also held on Hanshin turf.

If my memory is correct, it was a Kikka-so without either the D'erby winner Shahryar or Satsuki-sho winner Efforia. A similar situation has occured again this year, without Do Deuce and Geoglyph. Even the runner-up Equinox is abscent since he's running in Tenno-sho (fall).

Not only that there are only three horses running both Saatsuki-sho and D'erby entered. What this points out is that Kikka-sho this year won't be that high in level. And if I put to use what I've learned from Shuka-sho, horses that performed well in either D'erby or Satsuki-sho needs attention.

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6:22 p.m. So what happens when the race level isn't high?

Well, when the race level isn't that high chances will grow for horses challenging the race from lower purse category. But that doesn't mean every horse has a chance because horses from lower categories are mostly already disadvantaged in the sense of potential. Only the ones that haven't fully shown their potentials yet have the slight chance to perform well if they are blessed with conditions under which they perform best.

Personally, I think the horses that experienced the spring classics have a better chance. And it's probably not only me since the expected win odds are concentrated on those horses. Will start preparation tomorrow after the barrier draw is released as the entry list won't be updated until then.

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6:51 p.m. The barrier draw has been released and it's going to be a full-field race!

Looks like the pace is going to be slow. Well, it's a marathon race, it rarely becomes a tight pace. Given that, horses drawing outer posts ( especially outer than post number 16) might have a hard time unless they have enough speed to go up front, while Gaia Force could be even more favored drawing the inner-most post.

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7:04 p.m. And just as I was starting to work on Kikka-sho, my access to the Internet gets restricted because we've reached the data limit. Unfortunately, the restriction won't be lifted until we manage to get over 3 days under 10GB, while stupid Cow won't stop his stupid online game, humph. I have a lot to say about that but well, let's get back to Kikka-sho.

All I could do with the least access is to look at the racing form and guess or think. Well from the members entered this year, Be Astonished may be able to take the lead alone. This is a case when the leading horse needs to be marked. Should keep that in mind.

Besides that, I need to choose horses that have performed well in their previous races having instantaneous speed and high aptitude in extending distances.

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8:43 p.m. I have long decided which horse to key but the problem is that the level has become so low, lower than I'd expected that I'm having a hard time picking out the ones that are only a wee bit better than the others.

Perhaps I should narrow down to horses that have already won a G2 rather than trying to pick out horses from lower grades which might or might not have the chance to finish within third place.

Anyway, it's getting late so I'm posting my current decision keying Ask Victor More on a wheel of Gaia Force, Boldog Hos, Meiner Turpan, Douradores, and Feengrotten.

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5:51 p.m. Sorry I skipped the update. We had a visitor and I got tied up with the cleaning, helping with the cooking and entertainig the visitor and didn't have time to sit at the computer to even launch it. While I was entertaining, stupid Cow who won Kikka-sho fell asleep downstairs which got me sticking to our visitor.

Am now looking at the results of Kikka-sho to review where I went wrong. One thing I know is I assumed the pace wrong damn it, that things turned out upside down except for Ask Victor More which I've marked and followed since Satsuki-sho. Will have to look into it further and deeper, though as there's still a lot to learn, my friends.

In the meantime I've had a little breakthrough on horses I need to keep following. At least that should be a good sign.

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7:05 p.m. And now let's take a look at the entry form for Tenno-sho (fall).

Needless to say, Equinox would be the center of attraction. Can't blame that as the horse doesn't seem to have shown its full potential yet. I'm not sure but I think shortening the distance from D'erby could turn out to be good for Equinox. Still, his growwth potentail leaves a question mark.

Besides Equinox, there are two more 3-year-olds entering this year Geoglyph and Danon Beluga. It would be the first race after a chip fracture for Geoglyph so his condition would be the key. On the othe hand, I'm afraid shortening the distance would not boost Danon Beluga's performance however, the 3 months' break after D'erby must have done him some good.

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6:28 p.m. Let's leave the 3-year-olds aside for a moment.

According to my notes, Sapporo Kinen is the best step concerning Tenno-sho (fall). Horses running Sapporo Kinen in their previous races among the entrees are Jack d'Or, Panthalassa, and Uberleben. It's natural to think Uberleben would have a difficult race coming back from her big loss in 11th place while her condition is unstable. That leaves Jack d'Or and Panthalassa.

2000 meters seems slightly long for Panthalassa and he's been beaten by Jack d'Or in Sapporo Kinen. On the other hand, Jack d'Or has its own problem of running only 2000 meters throughout his career that he could get tired of it and give up the race any moment. What I want to say is I can't trust either Jack d'Or or Panthalassa. And here I am again, stuck.

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6:37 p.m. The barrier draw for Tenno-sho (fall) has been released so let's take a look.

It's going to be a 15-horse race this year, so outer post starters might not be as diadvantaged as a full-field race. Nevertheless, it would be a disadvantage for horses going up front like Babbit or horses staying way behind like Cadenas. And the lucky post number one this year goes to Maria Elena.

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5:44 p.m. Yesterday I checked out Prince of Whales Stakes which Shahryar has run in his previous race and have learned that 1990m on Ascot turf was overwhelmingly tough.

If I'm forced to put it in a Japanese G1 race, it may be like a tight pace Takaraduka Kinen on muddy tracks, or even tougher. Shahryar has expereienced quite a tough race that to him, Tokyo 2000m could seem like a morning stroll.

And I find myself weighing Shahryar heavier than necessary. Need to keep cool as I've been losing swung around by subjective emotions.

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7:18 p.m. Worked hard throughout the day and also working hard tomorrow as we're having a visitor again. I deserve an award for my hard working.

Conclusion is simple. From last week and today's races on Tokyo turf, I judged the turf condition to be firm and fast. High performers on this turf need good time record. Horses that go up front is likely to be taken over by horses that have great instantaneous force in a zap.

Additionally, my horses of interest are all favored. Therefore I'm going all on trifectas keying Equiox on the first place. Shahryar (couldn't quite wash off my sentimentalism) and Jack d'Or fixed on second place on a wheel of Maria Elena, Karate, Geoglyph, Shahryar and Jack d'Or.

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3:22 p.m. Sorry for skipping again. I was not only tired but very much disappointed by the results of Tenno-sho. Can't give compliments to Yusuke Fujioka riding Jack d'Or like that while he had a chance to put some pressure on Panthalassa and maybe get a better result. Though I blame myself for putting too much trust on Jack d'Or rather than Panthalassa.

There are two types of horses, the ones that perform well in G1 and the ones that don't. High performers in G1 mostly perform well in their first or second G1 challenge. Should have noticed that difference between Panthalassa and Jack d'Or. Unfotunately, it would be difficult now for Jack d'Or to perform well in a G1 as he's missed his chance. If I were to say so, I'd suggest running the horse in a longer distance, on a tougher course like Hanshin.

As for Danon Beluga, I admit he was my blindspot however, I should have been able to put him on the wheel had I noticed I was keying a horse running D'erby in his previous race.

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Caterpillar