7:05 p.m. Even if no horse scratched off from the entry list of Yayoi-sho, it's pretty clear it will be a small-field race as it mostly have been in the recent years. If so, the barrier draw would have a large weight on the horses' performance especially, when the pace drops to a slow.

There are at least two more factors to perform highly in Yayoi-sho. High aptitude for fast track, and instantaneous speed. Nakayama Kinen run last week has clocked 1 minute 46.4 seconds as its winning record. Although this is largely the result of the tight pace Panthalassa has set, still it shows that a grade-winning class horse could run 1800m in such time.

That said, Do Deuce might have a good chance if he has already recovered from the damage of Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes.

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Caterpillar

6:49 p.m. When I turn my eyes to the past results of Tulip-sho, high performers in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies including the winners are doing well although there were times when the juvenile champions didn't enter Tulip-sho.

Nevertheless, not all of them are doing well as you might have guessed and what seems to divide success and failure seems to be left-over damage. Since Tulip-sho is run on the same course and distance as Hanshin JF and that Hanshin JF tends to become a tough race, winners are forced to experience damage.

Circle of Life has won Hanshin JF in a way that leaves damage. It depends on her recovery whether she'd perform well in Tulip-sho or not.

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Caterpillar

6:52 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend races Yayoi-sho running with only 11 horses. A small-field race indeed.

And since it is a small-field race, Yayoi-sho is likely to be run in either an average or a slow pace though I'll have to wait till the barrier draw to decide. As a matter of fact, only once has this race been run in a tight lapin the past 10 years which was in 2016. It was also a small-field race with only 12 horses running however, there are cases when the lap gets tight when certain conditions are met as I've mentioned before. Let's wait and see what happens with the draw.

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Caterpillar

6:21 p.m. The barrier draw has been released and I'm assuming the pace won't be so tight. Let me set it from average to slow.

As it's a small-field race, horses witn instantaneous speed have the advantage especially, the ones starting from inner posts. Outer post starters need to take a good position up front to perform well.

If the pace becomes average though, there might be another wire to wire finish just like Panthalassa (however the pace may be different) so must be careful. Meisho Gekirin, Lubeck, and Born This Way are the ones to keep on watch in that case.

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Caterpillar

8:12 p.m. So my call for Yayoi-sho (will not call it Deep Impact Kinen from personal reasons).

I'm keying Lagulf. His experience of Hopeful Stakes hopefully would become a follow wind tomorrow. On the wheel would be Justin Rock, Born This Way, Do Deuce, Industria, and Ask Victor More.

The results of Tulip-sho and Ocean Stakes were quite interesting, by the way.

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Caterpillar

6:13 p.m. Have done it again. The horses on my wheel took all places from 1st to 5th in Yayoi-sho while Lagulf has sunk in the lowest 11th place...

Yeah, I know. Should have changed my key horse to Do Deuce when I felt a twinge of suspicion seeing Lagulf has lost 10kg though he had 9 weeks' interval after Hopeful Stakes. It was a sign of left-over damage. The horse hasn't traveled long to get to Nakayama and still lost that much weight. Power type horses like Lagulf souldn't lose weight like that. It puts a question mark on his condition.

Well, today's result show that Hopeful Stakes was actually quite tough. As for Do Deuce, he didn't have to win Yayoi-sho anyway. After all, it's a trial and Do Deuce has made it a good step towards Satsuki-sho.

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Caterpillar

1:55 p.m. Looking at the entry form of this week's Kinko-sho already, turning a blind eye to my blunder yesterday trying to convince myself nothing has happened.

Kinko-sho annually finishes with front runners and it would surely be an advantage if/when a horse could take the lead. Now this year there are two candidates for such lead takers Jack d'Or and Lei Papale. Jack d'Or is a fresh 4-year-old winning four races in a row while Lei Papale is just back from her 3 months' interval after Hong Kong Cup.

The question is which of the two would take the lead? And yet there's also the possibility of both of them doing well.

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Caterpillar

7:03 p.m. Had to go out today. On the most chilly, rainy day this spring. Hope it would be the last. Couldn't avoid it because it was amily business.

Finally sitting in front of my desk-top checking out the past results of Kinko-sho. There was only once when Kinko-sho has been run in a tight pace and the lap could become loose again, depending on the number of horses running and the barrier draw.

Usually this race is run in a fast record although the recent two years look like exceptions. I assure you there were good reasons. Last year the track was past yielding to the point of muddy. Many of you might remember how female triple crown winner Daring Tact couldn't quite catch Gibeon who took the lead in spite of her outstanding favority.

Year 2020? Drrr! The level of the race was simply low.

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Caterpillar

2:52 p.m. Starting early since I have to work on my income tax dovuments.

The rate for the most favored finishing within 3rd place in Kinko-sho (for the past 10 years) is high at the rate of 70& however, they seem to bring the 4th to 6th favored along. The rate for the 4th to 6th favored finishing within 3rd place is 36.7& which is the 3rd highest rate following the 2nd favored.

Kinko-sho is also friendly to certain repeaters that have high aptitude for Chukyo 2000m as you can see in the performances of Satono Noblesse or Yamakatsu Ace, while at least one Deep Impact descendants have been finishing wihtin 3rd place every year since they started running except for 2017 when Stephanos didn't perform up to its favority.

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Caterpillar

6:29 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend races. Eventually, Kinko-sho will be run with 13 horses another reason the pace might not become so tight.

Well, it would be a blessing for Deep Impact descendants if the number of horses running was small. But the pace is still uncertain while horses like Sifflement or Shonan Bardi didn't scratch off from the entry list. Will have to wait until tomorrow's barrier draw.

Still, the front runners might benefit depending on the track condition so I need to check out Saturday's races. And so far the forecast hasn't said anything about rain this weekend.

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Caterpillar

6:10 p.m. The barrier draw has been released and Jack d'Or has drawn post number 3 while Lei Papale drew 10.

Having Gibeon and Shonan Bardi starting from a more inner post is concerning though I think Jack d'Or could take the lead if Fujioka doesn't screw the start. I'm calling the pace as average. If that comes true, front runners will hae the advantage.

Akai Ito's instantaneous speed is fascinating, but if she stays behind in her usual position it might become critical.

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Caterpillar

6:13 p.m. Very sleepy as the temperature has gone up to that of May. Had a hard time calling Kinko-sho fighting the drowsiness.

Keying Jack d'Or despite the low odds. Have figured that front runners that also have instantaneous speed would have the biggest chance to perform well on this week's Chukyo turf. Besides, you shouldn't go against a concentrated Deep Impact descendant.

Lei Papale also suits the requirement however, I'm skeptical of her performance as the crew might be taking Kinko-sho as a step towards Osaka-hai. Her previous performance is another concern. So I've decided to keep her on the wheel together with Soft Fruit, Akai Ito, Arata, and Stellaria.

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Caterpillar

6:51 p.m. I do win sometimes, yes. It was good I didn't leave out Lei Papale, though. Half of me was thinking she'd sink below 4th place but the remaining half said I should leave her on the wheel as insurance since she'd definitely be in the front half of the field.

Have judged Jack d'Or's potential to be at least G3 level if he could win a Tokyo 2000m lilsted class taking the lead from start to finish. He's won a G2 today and expectation would probably rise towards winning a G1.

Whether this horse could win a G1 or not depends on several conditions in my humble opinion, the distance, the course, the track condition, the number of horses entered as well as the post he draws, and most important of all, the length of the interval. I'd rather enter him in Takaraduka Kinen than Osaka-hai if I were the owner.

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Caterpillar

7:01 p.m. Today was even warmer than yesterday and the temperature went up to around 23 or 24. Had to go out again sweating, even in a short sleeve T-shirt.

This week it's going to be Hanshin Dai-shoten, the race I'd been badly beaten last year thanks to Aristoteles, and after that comes the dreaded Takamatsuno-miya Kinen. I'd like to stay on this good wave of winning to also win Hanshin Dai-shoten as well as pay revenge for last year.

14 horses are entered as of today so if the track becomes soft, it could become a recap of last year. Rain is expected on Friday and Saturday though not Sunday, but who knows, the rain front might change its move in the days to come.

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Caterpillar

6:14 p.m. Let's look at the trend of Hanshin Dai-shoten in the past 10 years.

The rate of finishing within 3rd place based on favority, first. A high rate for the most favored at 80&38; while the 3rd favored follows at 60&38;, the 2nd favored below that with 40&38; and the 4th to 6th favored an even lower rate of 30&38;. Longshots below the 10th favored has performed well only once when Lord Vent d'Or finished 3rd in 2019 on a sof track.

Shouldn't leave out Deep Bond, I reckon, however favored he might be.

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Caterpillar

6:30 p.m. Let's proceed with the trend of the past 10 years of Hanshin Dai-shoten.

The 4-year-olds are doing well overall at the rate of 57.1&38; finishing within 3rd place, while the 5, 6, 7-year-olds follow respectively at the rate of 33.3&38;, 26.9&38;, and 11.8&38;. Horses above the age of 8 has never finished within 3rd at least for tha past 10 years.

Situation seems tough for Shironii and Danburite at this point. It's also hard for the 7-year-olds Admire Alba and You Can Smile as there were only twice in the past 10 years when a 7-year-old horse has finised within 3rd place. 2012 3rd place winner Namura Crescent and 2013 3rd place winner Forgettable.

Considering both Namura Crescent and Forgettable have finished within 3rd place when they'd run Kikka-sho in their early careers, there might be a slight chance for You Can Smile to finish 3rd this year.

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Caterpillar

5:09 p.m. Position is also important when it comes to Hanshin turf.

Horses holding their positions within 4th from the top at the last corner are performing well, and annually at least one of such horses (frequently two) appear in the top 3 finishers. Yet instantaneous speed is also necessary in this usually slow-paced marathon race.

Summing it up, horses that can sweep up from the outside to take a front position before the homestretch need to be marked, as well as the powerful front runers.

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Caterpillar

7:14 p.m. The barrier draw has been released and from the order of the horses the pace could be average to slow. If King of Dragon takes the lead, he could pull the race at an average pace.

If the pace becomes average, it would benefit the front runners as mentioned before. Tosen Cambina or Admire Alba will be in a difficult position in that case. I hate to disappoint you but it looks like Deep Bond will be in a safe position in either pace.

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. Very tired as I had to do some brain work before calling Hanshin Dai-shoten. Though I've happened to see a program focusing on Sadaharu Oh which was both refreshing and inspiring. It reminded me of a good memory when one of my classmate in NY came up to me with sparkling eyes and asked if I knew Sadar-O, a Japanese baseball player and a homerun world record holder. He'd learned the name from his father who was a big baseball fan the night before. Can't tell you how proud I was to say I did, every Japanese did.

Back to Hanshin Dai-shoten. I've decided to put all my bet on a trio of Deep Bond, Machaon d'Or and You Can Smile. The more I think, the more I feel like there's a gap between these three horses and the others.

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Caterpillar

5:20 p.m. I'm done. Machaon d'Or and You Can Smile has sunk in 4th and 5th place, respectively.

I wish Fujioka had guided You Can Smile to a more upfront position. I wonder if he'd thought he could beat Deep Bond with instantaneous speed? Drrrrr... Same goes for Hayato Yoshida riding Machaon d'Or.

I mean, look at the positions of the 2nd and 3rd place winners. Iron Barows kept his positon at 3rd from the top until he nudged up to 2nd from the top at the last corner. Silver Sonic took his position next to Deep Bond at the beginning, though moved up at an early stage to get his position 3rd from the top at the last corner. Just the kind of race I wished for Machaon d'Or and You Can Smile.

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Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. Finished reviewing Hanshin Dai-shoten. Must keep a mental note that Orfevre descendants are good at Hanshin turf especially, when run in averge pace. Have learned that before from Lucky Lilac, but just couldn't be sure if it was her individual feature or not.

This week it's the dreaded Takamatsuno-miya Kinen. As you know I'm terrible at dirt and sprint races so I've set one of this year's goal to win February Stakes, Takamatsuno-miya Kinen, Sprinters' Stakes and Champions' Cup.

I've won February Stakes although it was Cafe Pharaoh's place. In fact, I've won Takamatsuno-miya Kinen last year but it was also a place ticket. It's time now to start working on another challenge.

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Caterpillar

6:03 p.m. Looking at the high-performers of Takamatsuno-miya Kinen in the past 10 years today, focusing on horses that ran Silkroad Stakes as their previous race. Horses from Silkroad Stakes have finished within 3rd place 8 times in the past 10 years except for 2015 and last year, 2021.

Half of the 8 horses from Silkroad Stakes were winners while the remaining half have lost in 2nd, 4th, and 5th place with only one horse losing big in 15th place. The one which lost in 15th place was Seiun Kosei (2019) who had already become a G1 champion in Takamatsuno-miya Kinen in 2017, so you might regard him as an exception.

It's hard to see a sgnificant tendency however, there seems to be two types of high-performers. One is the the type that has already shown high potential and thus also performing highly in Silkroad Stakes living up to their expectations reflected on their win odds. The other group consists of horses that didn't perform as much as they were expected to betraying their win odds, yet having an earlier career of high achievement such as winning grade raes or having a runner-up finish in G1 races. Seiun Kosei falls on the latter.

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Caterpillar

6:43 p.m. Let's look at high-performers from Hankyu-hai today.

In fact, 9 horses with their previous race being Hankyu-hai have finished within 3rd place in the past 10 years. The results of Hankyu-hai for these 9 horses vary from 1st place to 7th place, though winners seemed to concentrate on the most and the 2nd favored. It could be said that only the horses that won Hankyu-hai with high expectations could be trusted in Takamatsuno-miya Kinen.

Horses that have lost below 3rd place in Hankyu-hai all seemed to have run Hanshin Cup and that the results of Hanshin Cup were all better than Hankyu-hai. These are the horses that made a V-shaped rapid recovery running Hanshin Cup and Hankyu-hai, both as step races for Takamatsuno-miya Kinen.

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Caterpillar

6:58 p.m. The remaining step race to analyze for Takamatsuno-miya Kinen would be Ocean Stakes, a G3 run on Nakayama.

There are 6 horses finishing within 3rd place in Takamatsuno-miya Kinen in the past 10 years that have run Ocean Stakes as their step race. Although the chance of high performance is smaller than Hankyu-hai or Silkroad Stakes, it deserves attention as the high-performers running Ocean Stakes as their step were mostly unfavored in Tkamatsuno-miya Kinen, except for Curren Chan (the 2nd favored) and Albiano (the 3rd favored).

Haven't been able to pick up any trends of this Ocean Stakes group however, what they all share in common was that there were no winners of this race. Perhaps because Oean Stakes has the shortest interval between Takamatsuno-miya Kinen, winning this G3 might leave damage to the horse.

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Caterpillar

8:15 p.m. The barrier draw for Takamatsuno-miya Kinen has been released. Can't say anything specific but I think inner posts are relatively better in this full-field race. If the track condition becomes soft due to rain expected tomorrow, the outer post starters might have a hard time.

An outer post will not be an advantage for Meikei Yell I suppose, since she sha has a hrmonizing problem (haven't fully trusted her yet) though, if the track gets soft, that will be a blessing.

Erm...don't know what to say about Grenadier Guards drawing the outmost post number 18. There hasn't been a horse that finished before 3rd place starting from this post for the past 10 years. The closest I could find was Admire Max winning from post 18 in 2005, but I'm not sure how I should accept this.

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Caterpillar

8:51 p.m. I had to work today. Irregular jobs pop up now and then. And as always, I'm exhausted both from work and from calling Takamatsuno-miya Kinen.

So I'm going to write the results of my score scale. From the best I could analyze so far, the top scorer was Lei Halia. The second was Resistencia, the third Meikei Yell and Salios followed at fourth.

At the moment, I'm planing to key Resistencia on a wheel of Lei Halia, Salios, Right on Cue, Diatonic, Meikei Yell. Still undecided about Grenadier Guards because of his outmost post. Also, I'm still torn whether I should keep Salios on the wheel. He's the horse I once swore to myself never to bet on again.

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Caterpillar

7:13 p.m. Couldn't win Takamatsuno-miya Kinen again. No wonder since it went wild and I think I heard the legend Keiichiro Okawa say, "You've still got a lot to learn."

Naran Huleg... Well, I'd like to congratulate Kyosuke Maruta for winning his first G1. It's nice to see years of hard work rewarded. I wish my decades of hard work would someday be rewarded, too.

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Caterpillar

6:33 p.m. The biggest fish is always the one that got away, the say. But the biggest fish has brought me some insight about which race could go wild and which race don't. What kind of horses perform well in a wild race while what kind of horses don't.

Calling horse races (and winning them!) is a complicated task for me. There are too many uncertainties that sometimes it's just a blind guess rather than a call. Still, I'm picking up and collecting the missing pieces one by one to get closer to winning.

Today starts my new journey and challenge to win a longshot in a wild race. I wouldn't say I'd win 2,780,000 yen, I'm not that arrogant. Though someday I'm willing to win betting tickets that pay out 1000 times as much as my bet.

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Caterpillar

6:51 p.m. Let's start working on Osaka-hai right away while sipping tea and chewing my snack niboshi (dried sardines).

The most favored has been performing well since Kitasan Black won this race when it was first promoted to a G1 from G2 in 2017. The rate for the most favored finishing within 3rd place in Osaka-hai is an astonishing 80&38;. In fact, there was only one horse that sank below 4th place in the past 5 years, Blast Onepiece finishing in 6th place in 2019.

The second favored also shows a high rate of 70&38; while the performance eerily drops to a sudden 0&38; for the 3rd favored. The 4th to 6th favored recovers with a 43.3&38; with a winning rate of 10&38; so you might as well weigh them heavier than the 3rd favored. The rate for the 3rd favored is extreme almost to the point of shocking, though I think it's worth considering since such results don't just happen without causes whether we see them or not.

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Caterpillar

6:16 p.m. Front runners are doing well even with the years before 2016 when this race was still a G2 are included. At least one or two horses taking their positions within 5th from the top from start to the last corner are finishing in the top 3 every year even when the pace is slow.

Because of the course layout, Hanshin races tend to settle for average or slow pace. This is one reason I think the front runners are benefitted, though there is another gimmick. This course gives advantage to horses that have sustainable speed and power rather than horses with instantaneous speed. Althuogh the race becomes an instantaneous speed contest when the pace lags to a slow, being able to go up front would be an advantage. Even more so if the track becomes soft.

The 4-year-olds have the best rate at finishing within 3rd place with 37.1&38;, while the 5-year-olds follow with 29.3&38;, 6-year-olds 14.8&38;,and the 7-year-olds 6.7&38;. So far there isn't any horse that performed well above the age of 8. The younger the better.

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Caterpillar

6:47 p.m. Looks like this year's Osaka-hai will be run with 16 horses. Good, since this race has usually been run with smaller number of horses. The number of horses running the race doesn't automatically decide the amount of payout however, it will contribute to the quality of the race.

I need to add a bit of information to yesterday's "Murmur" about high-performers' ages. The 7-year-olds had a 6.7&38; rate of finishing within 3rd place, but there was only one 7-year-old in the past 10 years Tokai Paradise, finishing in 2nd place in 2014 when this race was still a G2 and the race was run with only 8 horses 3 of which were 7-year-olds. Perhaps you could dismiss the idea of 7-year-olds finishing in the top 3.

That puts African Gold in a tight spot, old Makahiki not to mention.

Another piece of information is that there weren't any horses that finished within 3rd place losing below 9th place in their previous races for the past 10 years. You might also want to avoid the horses that have lost big in their previous races, unless there was some good reason for the loss.

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Caterpillar