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6/01  Ho O Amazon

6:54 p.m. Ho O Amazon somehow has been popping up in my mind time and again. Because the horse is said to be not good at counter-clockwise courses, I've been trying to dismiss the idea but he comes back to haunt me every day.

It's true Ho O Amazon has been performing highly on Hanshin mile while punctually losing every time he runs Tokyo mile. However, it seems to me that the cause for the loss is not actually the course but rather the timing, since Ho O Amazon has lost at Hanshin, too where he's supposed to be good at. Besides, the horse has won a Chukyo mile although in the earliest stage of his career, so the rumor that Ho O Amazon can't win a Tokyo mile (because it's counter- clock-wise) doesn't make sense.

Nevertheless, Ho O Amazon keeps nagging at my mind disturbing my thoughts... I must put that aside and get ack to work.

The End

Caterpillar

6/02  Six G1 Winners

6:37 p.m. The entry for Yasuda Kinen has been closed whilst Cafe Pharaoh has been bothering me instead of Ho O Amazon.

The entry list have ended up with six G1 winners, though most of them haven't won a G1 in the past year except for Cafe Pharaoh and Naran Huleg. Now this seems unreliable since Cafe Pharaoh has only won a dirt G1, February Stakes and his first challenge on turf has ended in a loss although he had enough exuses such as the distance or the top (carrying) weight.

As for Naran Huleg, he's just won Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen on a muddy track. There's been a 9-weeks' interval, but I doubt if the horse could go without damage after such a tough race. Besides, Naran Huleg has never performed well in distance extension.

The End

Caterpillar

6/03  Might as Well

4:59 p.m. The barrier draw for Yasuda Kinen has been released. Waiting for the rain to stop, thought I might as well get this over with.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Cafe Pharaoh
2Vin de Garde
3Lotus Land
4Danon the Kid
5Ho O Amazon
6Karate
7Fine Rouge
8Elusive Panther
9Schnell Meister
10Air Lolonois
11Catedral
12Diatonic
13Songline
14Soul Rush
15Serifos
16Resistencia
17Salios
18Naran Huleg

The way the horses are lined up suggests an average pace unless Cafe Pharaoh, Lotus Land or Ho O Amazon pushes up front. Resistencia would want to take the lead and if the rider is not insane, he wouldn't drop to a slow. That said, it would be the front runners with instantaneous speed preferrably, starting from inner posts that would be advantaged.

The End

Caterpillar

6/04  Struggled Again

8:13 p.m. Again, I've struggled. The main reason is because horses have entered from so many different step races. I can't follow all the races you see, I have other things to do.

Have been torn between Elusive Panther and Serifos, eventually settling to key Elusive Panther. I wasn't sure if he'd win at the time of Tokyo Shinbun-hai but he did and I think a Heart's Cry descendant can handle a giant killing.

On the wheel would be Cafe Pharaoh, Vin de Garde, Fine Rouge, Serifos, and Salios (just in case).

The End

Caterpillar

6/05  Less Than 32.7

11:06 p.m. A total loss. My call was more than far off the mark.

I'd hoped Elusive Panther would at least keep his position around the middle, but he stayed in the back, way back. In a slow pace like today's staying in the back is critical especially, when Danon the Kid who stuck to the 2nd from the top could finish the last three furlongs in 33.7 seconds. Elusive Panther would have to fly the last three furlongs in less than 32.7 seconds to take ove all the horses running ahead of him.

Elusive Panther actually did finish thelast three furlongs in a falshy 32.6 seconds, though that wasn't enough considering the course loss as you can see from the result.

The End

Caterpillar

6/06  Instead

5:55 p.m. Haven't finished reviewing Yasuda Kinen yet so must do it later. Instead, I've already taken a peek of this weekend's races.

Epsom Cup is one of the races I'm not good at however, Shadow Diva might be good at Tokyo 1800m especially when it becomes a slow pace instantaneous speed contest. For Hakodate Sprint Stakes, I'd say Namura Clair. But then, she'd definitely be favored so perhaps I'll stay away from this one.

Tokyo has entered the rainy season and because I can't go out for my almost daily exercise, I think I'll do some non-aerobics exercise, then get down to my review.

The End

Caterpillar

6/07  Horses Taking the Lead

6:47 p.m. It seems horses taking the lead in Epsom Cup are doing pretty well from the past results. In the past 10 years, 6 races have finished with the leading horse in the top 3.

1800m is a distance that tends to become monotonous which could benefit front runners, but Tokyo sin't an easy course to hit wiree to wire regarding the long homestretch. Therefore, it should be better to have advantage options such as soft track condition, average pace or the lack of other front runners.

It would also be better for front runners to have a full-field entry, since trailers would be disadvantaged in a full-field race.

The End

Caterpillar

6/08  To Take the Lead

6:52 p.m. The entry for Epsom Cup has been closed and it seems it's going to be a small-field race this year.

The barrier draw won't be released until Friday morning so I can't assume the pace. Taurus Gemini would be able to take the lead if he wants to however, there's a chance for North Bridge to beat him with the rider being Iwata Sr.

If the pace doesn't become that tight, it would become an instantaneous speed contest. Since it's a small-field race, there may be chances for even trailers as long as they have outstanding instantaneous speed. Meanwhile, the forecast is threatening with partial rain on Sunday and if the track becomes soft, the situation might benefit front runners.

The End

Caterpillar

6/09  Can Never Trust

7:37 p.m. Looks like Justin Cafe is the most favored in expected win odds for Epsom Cup, followed by Darlington Hall and Zadar.

Personally, I'd prefer Darlington Hall to Justin Cafe if it was the choice between these two. One can never trust an Epiphaneia descendant after winning big.

Shadow Diva is currently the 5th favored and I hope she'd stay there or drop a bit more if possible. Apart from that, will just have to wait and see the barrier draw announced tomorrow morning. Or on a second thought,perhaps it would be better to go for Hakodate Sprint Stakes?

The End

Caterpillar

6/10  Happy with the Draw

6:33 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and I'm happy with the draw.

North Bridge would take the lead I assume, considering this lineup. If so, I'm guessing the pace to be average. North Bridge could raise the pace though I doubt it because Iwata Sr. definitely wants to win. I ought to put some insurance on him whether the track is soft or firm.

Shadow Diva has drawn a good post. I'm counting on Ryusei Sakai since the inner part of the track seems damaged. Hope he succeeds in choosing the best course. Zadar would be the horse to beat in that case.

The End

Caterpillar

6/11  Can't Quite Pin Down

8:05 p.m. Can't quite pin down the key horse as there are still too many uncertainties such as weather or track condition.

But it's getting late as usual and I hought I'd leave a meantime report here. Have narrowed down the candidates to 6 horses which I know is rather too rough considering the small-field race.

The names of these candidates are Shadow Diva, Darlington Hall, North Bride, Tosen Grand, Galore Creek, and Zadar. I'm torn between Shadow Diva, North Bridge and Tosen Grand at the moment.

The End

Caterpillar

6/12  Didn't I Say

6:21 p.m. Didn't I say the choice of course would be important?

Taking in account the sudden rainfall and soft track shortly before the race, I keyed Shadow Diva because I thought it would be the best condition for her and that it wouldn't be that difficult to choose courses on a soft track in a small-field race. And look what happened.

Shadow Diva was stuck in the middle with Justin Cafe sweeping from the inside eventually bumping into Shadow Diva, while unable to move blocked by run-out Taurus Gemini. Will repeat. I told you to choose the course Ryusei, didn't I? So that's the gap between Ryusei Sakai and Christophe Lemaire.

The End

Caterpillar

6/13  Handiapped Race

10:31 p.m. Had to go check the renewed house. Mr.N-jima dropped by after that to share dupper and drinks.

I was thinking of Unicorn Stakes this weekend, but Mr. N-jima seemed to be interested in Mermaid Stakes. Well, it's a handicapped race so the payout is likely to be big. Though there seemed to be other reasons. He'd been losing Mermaid Stakes year after year... I know how you fell, pal.

The End

Caterpillar

6/14  Carrying 50kg

7:10 p.m. Since the idea of calling Mermaid Stakes popped up, I've taken a look at the past results.

Fellow Mr. N-jima mentioned that he'd been beaten by horses carrying lighter weight to be specific, 50 kg. So I've checked out how such horses have been performing inthe past 10 years and surely, they've been finishing in the top 3 five times.

I've dug deeper to see which horses carrying 50 kg do well and shich don't. It seems the high-performers need to have won at least the 10 million prize class. Also, they need to be carrying heavier weight in their previous race. Will have to wait until the entry closes to see how much weight the horses would caryy in Mermaid Stakes, though.

The End

Caterpillar

6/15  Great

7:40 p.m. The entry for Mermaid Stakes isn't closed yet but the carrying weight has been announced.

And it turns out that there is no horse carrying 50 kg. Great. I wish I could have my wasted time and energy back. Now, what should I do?

Well, there's not much I could do for now anyway, so might as well wait till the barrier draw. Perhaps then, I might be able to grab a clue or two.

The End

Caterpillar

6/16  Not Quite Sure

7:21 p.m. The entry has been closed for Mermaid Stakes though I haven't quite had any breakthroughs.

Assuming from the past 10 years' results, the race rarely becomes a tight pace and therefore horses with instantaneous speed taking their positions in the back seem to perform relatively well. Perhaps the track condition is also working as their benefit, since Hanshin turf could be quite damaged by now leaving only Takaraduka Kinen to go for this season.

Not quite sure but will try to find horses that aren't fatigued from running too many races this spring. Horses that haven't yet won, carrying lighter weight than in their previous races.

The End

Caterpillar

6/17  No 50kg Carriers

7:06 p.m. Looks like the barrier draw has been announced for Mermaid Stakes, so let's take a look.

There are no 50kg carriers as expected. If there's no rainfall in Hanshin on Sunday, I'm afraid the inner barrier won't benefit Soft Fruit although she's the most favored in expected win odds as of today. Same goes for Gold Berg, Toshin Mont Blanc, or Wertheim.

The horses carrying more than 4kg lighter weight are Stable Ask, Toshin Mont Blanc, Wertheim. Kimuken Dream is carryig 3kg lighter weight, Through Seven Seas and Hagino Luxe 2kg lighter, and Ho O Emmy's carrying 1kg lighter weight than their previous races.

The End

Caterpillar

6/18  Still Pondering

8:30 p.m. Tired as always from both working and the stickiness of the rainy season, ugh. Though I know more than well I have to grin and bear it as long as I live in this country.

The odds are split and currently the most favored Through Seven Seas has the win odds of 6.2. Shows how everyone is not sure. So it's not only me, I guess. Well, no one could be sure as it's a handicapped race.

Am still in the middle of pondering but for now I've reached a conclusion to key Stable Ask. On the wheel would be Through Seven Seas, Icon Tailor, Hagino Luxe, and Love You Live. As mentioned, I'm still pondering, though.

The End

Caterpillar

6/19  50kg Irrelevant

6:49 p.m. Stable Ask has screwed the start to lag behind in an average pace, full-field race. The horse might have done better if not for the terrible start.

Meanwhile, Hagino Luxe's rider has been switched to Fujikake from Manabu Sakai. Don't know what happened but I was counting on Sakai who'd ridden Hagino Luxe in his last workout and it turns out someone else is riding. Guess I'm down on my luck.

What the result show is that there's a huge gap between horses that once performed well in the classic races and horses that haven't. The 50kg weight have to be said irrelevant.

The End

Caterpillar

6/20  A Tough Week

6:39 p.m. All right, so it's going to be the last of the spring G1 series this weekend, Takaraduka Kinen. Unfortunatly though, I have packing to do as I'm moving back to the renewed house. It's going to be a tough week.

Scanning through the entrees and I see two streams. One, horses with their previous races being Osaka-hai and two, horses with their previous races being Tenno-sho (spring). I have a feeling that the Tenno-sho group don't do very well in Takaraduka, but need to check my notes on that to be sure.

Among those two main streams of step races, Daring Tact's Victoria Mile stands out as quite odd. However, I think it's not a bad step, though I also think Yasuda Kinen would have been a better step. Besides, she's an Epiphania descendant so I need to handle her with care as well as Efforia.

The End

Caterpillar

6/21  Horses from Tenno-sho

6:57 p.m. Hmmm... horses from Tenno-sho (spring) haven't been performing very well except for the ones that lost below 4th place. The only Tenno-sho winner that performed well in the past 10 years was Kitasan Black who finished 3rd in Takaraduka Kinen.

As you already know, Tenno-sho (spring) is a characteristid Marathon race. Horse that perform well in Tenno-sho (spring) usually performs better when extending the distance from their previous races. Running Takaraduka Kinen has a contrary effect on such horses. Additionally, horses that performed well in Tenno-sho (spring) bear the brunt of certain damage both physically and mentally.

According to my notes, it seems better to choose horses that have lost below 3rd place (in Tenno-sho), performed well in a G1 race (leaving out the 3-year-old classics), with its best performance on Hanshin turf. Horses performing better with shortening the distance would also be a preferrable choice.

The End

Caterpillar

6/22  Horses from Osaka-hai

6:26 p.m. Taking that in account, Heat on Beat, Meiner Fanrong, or Melody Lane is more likely to perform better than Tenno-sho (spring) compared to Titleholder or Deep Bond.

Let's look at horses from Osaka-hai today. Since 2017 when Osaka-hai has been promoted to G1, 4 horses from Osaka-hai have finished within 3rd place in Takaraduka Kinen. It could be called a pretty good step.

Three out of four horses have finished Osaka-hai either 1st or 2nd. The remaining one horse was Satono Crown who'd lost Osaka-hai in 6th place but won the race before it, Kyoto Kinen. That might give Efforia another chance.

The End

Caterpillar

6/23  A Tight Lap

7:39 p.m. Have been out this afternoon and finally got down to look at the barrier draw.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Authority
2African Gold
3Melody Lane
4Efforia
5Iron Barows
6Titleholder
7Daring Tact
8Stay Foolish
9Meiner Fanrong
10Hishi Iguazu
11Panthalassa
12Win Marilyn
13Arrivo
14King of Koji
15Deep Bond
16Gloria Mundi
17Gibeon
18Potager

The draw suggests the possibility of a tight lap. If it does become a tight lap, horses like Efforia, Titleholder or Daring Tact wouldn't have to worry about getting squashed. But a tight lap would be a double-edge sword for Titleholder or Panthalassa.

The End

Caterpillar

6/24  Efficiently

7:27 p.m. As I had to do packing for the move back to the renewed house, I haven't been able to do any preparations for Takaraduka Kinen. Stressful since I want to win this spring Grand Prix.

Will have to do more packing tomorrow, so must call the race efficiently, which is something I'm terrible at. Telling myself to look at the big picture and narrow the tasks down to the most necessary, though that's the hard part for me.

Anyway, time is money. Will do what I can with what little time I have left.

The End

Caterpillar