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5/01  After All

4:41 p.m. Titleholder didn't have any damage from Nikkei-sho after all. I thought he did, that's why I didn't include him in my wheel and look what happened. I haven't been going well with Titleholder since Centlight Kinen and it's dreadful to think I'll have to live with this horse for at least another year.

Have been worried about Silver Sonic rather than my loss, though. Yuga Kawada fell while the horse was still in the barrier and the horse had started to run the whole race on its own. After Titleholder hit the wire, Silver Sonic seemed to cool down along Titleholder but then suddenly disappeared from the screen until he showed up again lying on his sides on the grass outside the fence.

Not to mention I scrambled to gather information to learn that the horse has jumped over the fence, rolled on its back, got up and was able to get on the horse trailer on its own. The owner side has released an announcement saying that although a couple of srapes have been found, no other apparent injuries have been seen on Silver Sonic for the moment. That is a relief.

The End

Caterpillar

5/02  Often Biased

7:38 p.m. Have fnished reviewing Tenno-sho. I was biased as I often am. Can't help it, though. I'm oly human.

I've tried fighting not to get biased but realized it wasn't worth it since I don't think there is a perfect way to avoid it. We see what we want to see, hear what we want to hear, and believe in what we want to believe in. The best I could do is to set a reminder not to get biased which I've proven myself wouldn't work.

Think it's more positive as well as healthy to refocus on the next chance. Maybe Titleholder would pay me back in the future.

The End

Caterpillar

5/03  Lighter Weight

6:59 p.m. Starting to think about NHK Mile Cup. 21 horses are entered as of today including Asahi-hai runner-up Serifos and the 3rd place winner, Danon Scorpion.

The year-end Hanshin mile race winners usually do pretty well but I'm counting on fillies as they have the advantage of lighter weight. They might perform well depending on the situation, such as the barrier draw, the pace or the track condition.

Might as well consider how to raise my own performance before counting on horses, though. Four G1 losses in a row, that's bad.

The End

Caterpillar

5/04  Horses of Interest

6:39 p.m. I already have some horses of interest in mind for NHK Mile Cup. Need to wait until the weekend as usual, though to dig in further.

Meanwhile have seen a good movie and done some cleaning which made me feel a bit better. As they say, a sound mind is found in a sound body. Will do what I can and wait for the best timing.

Seems everyone is going out for the holidays probably because the stay-home restrictions for the Golden Week have been lifted for the first time in the past 3 years. I hope we're on the track back to normal life although gradually, and that we'll be able to fully enjoy our summer vacation this year.

The End

Caterpillar

5/05  Without Scratching Off

6:30 p.m. The entry for NHK Mile Cup has been closed and all of my horses of interest seem to have entered without scratching off. Not that I've been worried.

The first hurdle cleared, the next one would be the barrier draw. Hope those horses draw good posts. The weather seems to stay fair so I'm expecting a speed track. That means horses staying in the back will have a hard time especially, when the pace drops to a slow.

High performers will be expected of high aptitude against fast track as well as instantaneous speed in case the pace is slow, while endurance of speed will be necessary when the pace becomes tight.

The End

Caterpillar

5/06  Hey

7:13 p..m. The barrier draw for NHK Mile Cup has been released so let's take a look.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Matenro Orion
2Sonnet Phrase
3Solitario
4Serifos
5King Hermes
6Toshin Macau
7Taisei Divine
8Alluring Way
9Dante's View
10Kawakita Reverie
11Industria
12Sacred
13Jean Gros
14Voller Blute
15Otaru Ever
16Purpur Ray
17Sternatia
18Danon Scorpion

I think Matenro, Serifos, Dante, Industria, Voller Blute, Otaru Ever might have drawn good posts. Hey, who said tomorrow was going to be sunny, by the way? And why has it suddenly changed to rain? Why? I have to go out again tomorrow, you know?

The End

Caterpillar

5/07  Odds Split

8:22 p.m. My afternoon meeting which I'd been made to reschedule have been cancelled at five in the morning. Cancelled two weeks in a row, humph. Wonder what my client is thinking?

Feeling greatful to have some free time although unexpectedly, I've worked hard to call NHK Mile Cup. Looks like everyone is unsure since the odds are split. Same here and I've been torn between two horses but have finally decided.

Keying Industria on a wheel of Matenro Orion, Serifos, King Hermes, Alluring Way, and Purpur Ray. I think the winner would be either Industria or King Hermes.

The End

Caterpillar

5/08  Merely an Excuse

6:45 p.m. A total loss, not even close. Because it was a wild race is merely an excuse. A loss is a loss, nothing more nothing less.

I feel very much denied of myself since I've put so much work into it and all I got in return was 5 lost G1 races in a row. I don't know what to do any more. Wish I could just go out for a break like racehorses to soak myself in an onsen until all the aches in my body would heal and disappear. Only then my mind would be refreshed, clear enough to take another step.

The End

Caterpillar

5/09  Better to Do

6:45 p.m. Not that I have something better to do, have done a thorough review.

It transpired that I'd been quite confused distracted by the odds and wasn't able to follow my new rules. I wouldn't say I would have won such a huge payout, but if I had practiced what I had set myself as a method, at least I would have been able to key Matenro Orion.

Learning from experience, maybe I should write out my ideas on the horses while calling races before I get confused. That might help me keep a cool head.

The End

Caterpillar

5/10  Uncertainties

6:54 p.m. Currently, the top three favored in expected win odds for Victoria Mile Cup are Lei Papale, Sodashi, and Daring Tact however, all of them seem to have uncertainties.

It would be the second time to shorten the distance for Lei Papale but she didn't do well in her previous challenge. Taking in account the last time was an expedition to Hong Kong, whether she could handle it or not is not clear. Sodashi has performed well in her previous race February Stakes, though there's no guarantee she hasn't been too consumed in her second dirt race.

Not to mention, Daring Tact has a question mark on her condition coming back from a year's interval after she won the 3rd place in Queen Elizabeth U Cup in Hong Kong. Troubling.

The End

Caterpillar

5/11  Racking Brains

6:42 p.m. Racking my brains to figure out whether Sodashi could perform well or not.

The key I think, is the pace. If the pace becomes tighter than her previous race February Stakes, there's a chance for her to perform highly. The reason I think so is because the 3 times Sodashi couldn't live up to her expectations were when the pace became slower than her previous races. For example, the first three furlongs of Ohkasho in which she won had been run in 34.1 seconds however, the first three furlongs in her next race Yushun Hinba (Oaks) were run in 35.4 seconds and Sodashi had lost in 8th place deceiving the most favored win odds.

The furlong time for the first three furlongs in February Stakes was 34.5 seconds, so if the first thee furlongs of Victoria Mile Cup gets faster than 34.5 seconds, Sodashi might finish in the top three.

The End

Caterpillar

5/12  Looking Back

7:57 p.m. Still racking my brains to see if Lei Papale could perform well.

Looking back on Lei Papale's career, you can see that there was only once when she had shortened the distance from her previous race which was the Hong Kong Cup. She had lost in 6th place at the time, and I can't be sure whether this was because of left-over damage or because she's not good with shortening the distance. It's hard to tell since I don't have enough information on Hong Kong Cup.

The one mile distance itself probably won't be a problem for Lei Papale as she has won mile races earlier. She seems to inherit more from Deep Impact rather than Kurofune, so perhaps she might perform highly. Meanwhile, the entry has been closed for Victoria Mile Cup.

The End

Caterpillar

5/13  Weekend's Rainfall

6:51 p.m. The barrier draw has been released before I start pondering about Daring Tact. Can't say anything about the draw since the track condition is unstable due to this weekend's rainfall, but perhaps thepace won't get that tight.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Daring Tact
2Songline
3Meisho Mimosa
4Magic Castle
5Sodashi
6Divina
7Resistencia
8Kurino Premium
9Ablaze
10Rosa Noir
11Fine Rouge
12Miss New York
13Lei Papale
14Akai Ito
15Andvaranaut
16Des Ailes
17Shadow Diva
18Terzetto

Have dug out from the past results that the 4th to 6th favored are doing quite well. Maybe it's better to trust them rather than the top three favored which have changed since Monday to oh boy, Fine Ruge, Sodashi, and Andvaranaut.

The End

Caterpillar

5/14  Can't Blame

8:13 p.m. Have been racking my brains for a week now but still not sure. I've lost confidence and don't feel like I could win again. Can't blame myself after losing G1 races 5 times in a row.

Anyway, here's my call for the moment. Will key Fine Rouge on a wheel of Songline, Sodasi, Resistencia, Andvaranaut, and Terzetto. This might change, though. As mentioned, I'm wavering this way and that due to the lack of confidence.

The End

Caterpillar