4:41 p.m. Titleholder didn't have any damage from Nikkei-sho after all. I thought he did, that's why I didn't include him in my wheel and look what happened. I haven't been going well with Titleholder since Centlight Kinen and it's dreadful to think I'll have to live with this horse for at least another year.

Have been worried about Silver Sonic rather than my loss, though. Yuga Kawada fell while the horse was still in the barrier and the horse had started to run the whole race on its own. After Titleholder hit the wire, Silver Sonic seemed to cool down along Titleholder but then suddenly disappeared from the screen until he showed up again lying on his sides on the grass outside the fence.

Not to mention I scrambled to gather information to learn that the horse has jumped over the fence, rolled on its back, got up and was able to get on the horse trailer on its own. The owner side has released an announcement saying that although a couple of srapes have been found, no other apparent injuries have been seen on Silver Sonic for the moment. That is a relief.

The End

Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. Have fnished reviewing Tenno-sho. I was biased as I often am. Can't help it, though. I'm oly human.

I've tried fighting not to get biased but realized it wasn't worth it since I don't think there is a perfect way to avoid it. We see what we want to see, hear what we want to hear, and believe in what we want to believe in. The best I could do is to set a reminder not to get biased which I've proven myself wouldn't work.

Think it's more positive as well as healthy to refocus on the next chance. Maybe Titleholder would pay me back in the future.

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Caterpillar

6:59 p.m. Starting to think about NHK Mile Cup. 21 horses are entered as of today including Asahi-hai runner-up Serifos and the 3rd place winner, Danon Scorpion.

The year-end Hanshin mile race winners usually do pretty well but I'm counting on fillies as they have the advantage of lighter weight. They might perform well depending on the situation, such as the barrier draw, the pace or the track condition.

Might as well consider how to raise my own performance before counting on horses, though. Four G1 losses in a row, that's bad.

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Caterpillar

6:39 p.m. I already have some horses of interest in mind for NHK Mile Cup. Need to wait until the weekend as usual, though to dig in further.

Meanwhile have seen a good movie and done some cleaning which made me feel a bit better. As they say, a sound mind is found in a sound body. Will do what I can and wait for the best timing.

Seems everyone is going out for the holidays probably because the stay-home restrictions for the Golden Week have been lifted for the first time in the past 3 years. I hope we're on the track back to normal life although gradually, and that we'll be able to fully enjoy our summer vacation this year.

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Caterpillar

6:30 p.m. The entry for NHK Mile Cup has been closed and all of my horses of interest seem to have entered without scratching off. Not that I've been worried.

The first hurdle cleared, the next one would be the barrier draw. Hope those horses draw good posts. The weather seems to stay fair so I'm expecting a speed track. That means horses staying in the back will have a hard time especially, when the pace drops to a slow.

High performers will be expected of high aptitude against fast track as well as instantaneous speed in case the pace is slow, while endurance of speed will be necessary when the pace becomes tight.

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Caterpillar

7:13 p..m. The barrier draw for NHK Mile Cup has been released so let's take a look.

I think Matenro, Serifos, Dante, Industria, Voller Blute, Otaru Ever might have drawn good posts. Hey, who said tomorrow was going to be sunny, by the way? And why has it suddenly changed to rain? Why? I have to go out again tomorrow, you know?

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Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. My afternoon meeting which I'd been made to reschedule have been cancelled at five in the morning. Cancelled two weeks in a row, humph. Wonder what my client is thinking?

Feeling greatful to have some free time although unexpectedly, I've worked hard to call NHK Mile Cup. Looks like everyone is unsure since the odds are split. Same here and I've been torn between two horses but have finally decided.

Keying Industria on a wheel of Matenro Orion, Serifos, King Hermes, Alluring Way, and Purpur Ray. I think the winner would be either Industria or King Hermes.

The End

Caterpillar

6:45 p.m. A total loss, not even close. Because it was a wild race is merely an excuse. A loss is a loss, nothing more nothing less.

I feel very much denied of myself since I've put so much work into it and all I got in return was 5 lost G1 races in a row. I don't know what to do any more. Wish I could just go out for a break like racehorses to soak myself in an onsen until all the aches in my body would heal and disappear. Only then my mind would be refreshed, clear enough to take another step.

The End

Caterpillar

6:45 p.m. Not that I have something better to do, have done a thorough review.

It transpired that I'd been quite confused distracted by the odds and wasn't able to follow my new rules. I wouldn't say I would have won such a huge payout, but if I had practiced what I had set myself as a method, at least I would have been able to key Matenro Orion.

Learning from experience, maybe I should write out my ideas on the horses while calling races before I get confused. That might help me keep a cool head.

The End

Caterpillar

6:54 p.m. Currently, the top three favored in expected win odds for Victoria Mile Cup are Lei Papale, Sodashi, and Daring Tact however, all of them seem to have uncertainties.

It would be the second time to shorten the distance for Lei Papale but she didn't do well in her previous challenge. Taking in account the last time was an expedition to Hong Kong, whether she could handle it or not is not clear. Sodashi has performed well in her previous race February Stakes, though there's no guarantee she hasn't been too consumed in her second dirt race.

Not to mention, Daring Tact has a question mark on her condition coming back from a year's interval after she won the 3rd place in Queen Elizabeth ‡U Cup in Hong Kong. Troubling.

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Caterpillar

6:42 p.m. Racking my brains to figure out whether Sodashi could perform well or not.

The key I think, is the pace. If the pace becomes tighter than her previous race February Stakes, there's a chance for her to perform highly. The reason I think so is because the 3 times Sodashi couldn't live up to her expectations were when the pace became slower than her previous races. For example, the first three furlongs of Ohkasho in which she won had been run in 34.1 seconds however, the first three furlongs in her next race Yushun Hinba (Oaks) were run in 35.4 seconds and Sodashi had lost in 8th place deceiving the most favored win odds.

The furlong time for the first three furlongs in February Stakes was 34.5 seconds, so if the first thee furlongs of Victoria Mile Cup gets faster than 34.5 seconds, Sodashi might finish in the top three.

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Caterpillar

7:57 p.m. Still racking my brains to see if Lei Papale could perform well.

Looking back on Lei Papale's career, you can see that there was only once when she had shortened the distance from her previous race which was the Hong Kong Cup. She had lost in 6th place at the time, and I can't be sure whether this was because of left-over damage or because she's not good with shortening the distance. It's hard to tell since I don't have enough information on Hong Kong Cup.

The one mile distance itself probably won't be a problem for Lei Papale as she has won mile races earlier. She seems to inherit more from Deep Impact rather than Kurofune, so perhaps she might perform highly. Meanwhile, the entry has been closed for Victoria Mile Cup.

The End

Caterpillar

6:51 p.m. The barrier draw has been released before I start pondering about Daring Tact. Can't say anything about the draw since the track condition is unstable due to this weekend's rainfall, but perhaps thepace won't get that tight.

Have dug out from the past results that the 4th to 6th favored are doing quite well. Maybe it's better to trust them rather than the top three favored which have changed since Monday to oh boy, Fine Ruge, Sodashi, and Andvaranaut.

The End

Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. Have been racking my brains for a week now but still not sure. I've lost confidence and don't feel like I could win again. Can't blame myself after losing G1 races 5 times in a row.

Anyway, here's my call for the moment. Will key Fine Rouge on a wheel of Songline, Sodasi, Resistencia, Andvaranaut, and Terzetto. This might change, though. As mentioned, I'm wavering this way and that due to the lack of confidence.

The End

Caterpillar

7:45 p.m. Thought over and over again to decide not to change my call and luckily, Resistencia has hung on to 3rd place to win me a trio. Sodashi has won despite the avrage pace so my exactas turned to ashes, though Fine Rouge brought me a place win I bet on for insurance.

Thanks to you all, I've finally put a period to my G1 losses. I know I actually have a long way to go since I didn't call Victoria Mile in a practical method, but felt very much relieved. Have been out for my daily exercise listening to Polonaise, Chopin, feeling a bit like a hero marching in triumph. Only a little. Well, I deserve it a little, don't I?

The End

Caterpillar

7:31 p.m. Need to review Victoria Mile Cup but I haven't been able to use the Internet freely, thanks to the data limit.

Since this place is only for temporal use, I didn't sign up for fiber-optic internet and have been using the pocket Wi-Fi. I've maxed out the data or so it seems that I've been under frustrating environment for the past 3 days. The strange thing is I'd never reached the data limit until a couple of months ago and while my usage of the Internet hasn't changed, I'm reaching the data limit quite frequently.

Perhaps they want me to upgrade to a 5G plan which is assumingly more profitable for the carrier. Come to think of it, I've been ignoring their repititive offer for an upgrade because I thought there wasn't much in it for me. I feel like I'm being punished.

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Caterpillar

7:26 p.m. The situation hasn't changed but have tried seeking if there were any trends among horses that perform well in Oaks.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find any obvious trend today, except for the fact that there were at least one horse from Ohka-sho finishing above 3rd place every year. Yes, I've always thought it was important to experience high level races.

The next step would be, I guess, to figure out which horse(s) from Ohka-sho actually do perform well in Oaks. I wish I knew how.

The End

Caterpillar

6:44 p.m. Haven't been able to do anything today as I had to go out. There wasn't much I could do anyway since there's been a software update and the usage of data was reaching the limt again.

Something seems wrong, though. I haven't been using Wi-Fi to save usage for the past couple of days and yet it's getting close to the limit when I check it at the end of the day. Will do what I can and see what happens. Depending on the case I might have to take action.

The only thing I got to learn today is that horses from Ohka-sho that performed well could be divided into two groups, the group that won anthe group that didn't win Ohka-sho. Horses belonging in the latter have all won the race before Ohka-sho or 2races before (at worst) except for Lily Noble. Lily Noble was the only horse in the past 10 years that hadn't won in either 2 races before Ohka-sho, but she'd finished 2nd (by half a lenght) in Hanshin JF which she'd run 2 races before Ohka-sho. It seems important to evaluate the horses' potential.

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Caterpillar

7:38 p.m. Have decided to use my smartphone to access the Internet to avoid connecting to home Wi-Fi for a while and see what happens. To start it off I checked the barrier draw for Oaks on my smartphone and put it down on paper. I could always get back to analog means if/when necessary. I'm a Showa person.

Since I've made up my mind, I'm sticking to my smartphone (not to mention, have turned off all the background updates that use Wi-Fi). And although I haven't been able to do any research on Oaks this week, will do the best I can with what information I could pick up through my smartphone's small screen. Or on a second thought, perhaps I should buy a paper racing form for the first time in a while.

The End

Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. The data usage restriction has finally been lifted and I'm doing my research in a zip. Need to make up for the time loss but have to go out for another meeting (since it's been cancelled twice in a row) tomorrow. Gosh, why do people keep eating up my precious time?

My intuition says beware of Namur although I have no support whatsoever. At least not at this point. Am not sure of Circle of Life. The distance extension would not be a problem for the horse though I can't fully trust an Epiphaneia descendant after losingbelow 4th place. Well, I'll do my best with what little time left.

By the way, this year's lucky post number 1 was drawn by Water Navillera. Forgot to write that yesterday.

The End

Caterpillar

8:58 p.m. Have done the best I could but this is actually the best I could do for now.

Just couldn't go against my intuition so am keying Namur on a wheel of Art House, Rouge Eveil, Sound Vivace, Circle of Life, and Presage Lift. I'm still undecided about Water Nvirella. Wanted to keep her on my wheel but she has been pushed out.

Or perhaps I should stay on a win and place for Namur.

The End

Caterpillar

6:55 p.m. Stars on Earth has won her second crown, sigh. Another loss.

Not sure what I've learned from this race. Maybe that Stars on Earth would definitely be the most favored in Shuka-sho and she might win the triple crown. I just hope there'd be the third horse by that time hopefully, finishing in 3rd place in Rose Stakes.

By the way, the winning record for this year's Oaks was 2 minutes 23.9seconds which turned out to be half a second faster than Uberleben or Daring Tact's generation. This suggests the performance of this year's 3-year-olds would be better than the 4 and 5-year-old female horses.

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Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. Pulling myself together and thinking about D'erby. Evaluating the horses from Satsuki-sho would be the key.

The extension in distance probably won't be a problem for Geoglyph however, the horse would at least need an average to slow pace considering his narrow win in Satsuki-sho. It would also be better to draw a middle to outward post, odd number posts if possible.

To me it seems like Equinox has a better chance to win. It would be better, though if Equinox scrapes off a bit of weight. As for Do Deuce, I'll have to say he's the most concerned of the top three finishers of Satsuki-sho. His background tells the distance extension won't be bad but the horse is downgrading its performance. Heart's Cry descendants are said to have low resistance against fatigue so perhaps he needs some refreshment.

The End

Caterpillar

7:01 p.m. Running through my notes from last year.

I was worried about Do Deuce but my notes suggested Geoglyph rather risky. According to my notes, it's likely for Do Deuce to perform as well as Satsuki-sho provided that he could perform well in longer distances, and that he hasn't lost below 4th place.

As you know, my notes don't always say what's right. Sometimes they're far off the mark. Sometimes I get biased trusting my notes blindly. Still, it could give me some clues.

The End

Caterpillar

7:12 p.m. Hmm... Danon Beluga seems to be favored possibly, because he won Kyodo Tsuhin-hai.

Horses that performed well in Kyodo Tsuhin-hai have also performed highly in D'erby although they've lost Satsuki-sho, so I'm not surprised. Not all of the winners are performing well, though. The question is whether I could trust Danon Beluga or not.

Since Danon Beluga has a very short career, it's hard to tell if he won Kyodo Tsushin-hai just from fresh momentum or by high potential. Perhaps he could have high potential bacause he was only a length and a half behind Geoglyph in Satsuki-sho. What I'm worried about is that he could be one of those Heart's Cry descendants that do well in a small-field, instantaneous speed races just like Salios.

The End

Caterpillar

6:48 p.m. The barrier draw for D'erby has been released and the favored horses have somehow clustered to the outside.

With this line up, it could become a tight lap despite the distance. If so, Piece of Eight or Onyankopon might benefit from it while it would become a tough race for Geoglyph.

The End

Caterpillar

7:57 p.m. Diligently working on D'erby, though am having a struggle as easily imagined.

The advanced betting tickets are already being sold and the win odds are moving. Do Deuce seems to be the most favored currently, followed by Equinox and Danon Beluga. I'm thinking that horses from Satsuki-sho should be focused. If so, Geoglyph would be disadvantaged because a bunch of horses are entering from Satsuki-sho and it would be too stressful for Geoglyph.

Do Deuce can probably handle the extension in distance so it's plausble he's pushed up to the most favored. I'm trying to look for other horses from Satsuki-sho that might merit from the extension but so far no luck. On the other hand, I'm guessing the pace could become tight and am having a hard time trying to figure what horses could perform better in such situation.

The End

Caterpillar

7:32 p.m. Have struggled. To be honest, I can't say I'm confident. But conclusion must be reached.

Am keying Do Deuce. Can't quite trust Heart's Cry descendants since I've been bitten so many times however, originally they shouldn't have problem extending the distance as I've mentioned earlier. Also, Do Deuce should be able to handle it in case when the pace becomes tight.

On the wheel would be Ask Victor More, Piece of Eight, Justin Palace, Lord les Ailes, and Equinox. Equinox might earn an easy win though I just couldn't be sure about distance extension (and the barrier) until the race is actually run. Still, I need to ponder this more.

The End

Caterpillar

7:08 p.m. To those who haven't come to see my call for a while because I've been losing race after race, I'm sorry to have to tell you I've won the D'erby. I repeat, I do win sometimes.

It was a close win, though. If Danon Beluga had taken over Ask Victor More, I would have lost completely. I didn't buy Danon Beluga despite his most favored win odds because he somewhat reminded me of Salios, while Do Deuce has proven he was more closer to Cheval Grand in Satsuki-sho.

I have a huch that Danon Beluga might perform better in a small-field race especially, when the pace dropps to a slow.

The End

Caterpillar

7:22 p.m. Feeling good with the D'erby win and that Yutaka has won it, moving right along to Yasuda Kinen.

There's a big mistery to solve, though. Danon Kingly. I couldn't figure out why Danon Kingly has won last year and still haven't digested it yet. Might as well start from there.

Every year, the spring classic races are hard to win but I've lost too many this year. Need to catch up on my loss. There are only two more G1s left this season so had better brace up and work hard on them. Let's get into fight mode, my friends!

The End

Caterpillar

7:18 p.m. Studying the past results of Yasuda Kinen.

Yasuda Kinen has annually been a succession of repeaters. Many horses that performed highly the year before have repeated their performance the following year. This year, the only one who has such chance is Schnell Meister, since Amond Eye, Gran Alegria, Indy Champ and Danon Kingly are now all gone.

The complicated thing is that I can't automatically jump to Schnell Meister right away, while he has lost in 8th place in his previous race, Dubai Turf. There are only two horses finishing in the top 3 that run Dubai Turf or former Dubai Duty Free in their prevoius races in the past 10 years, Almond Eye in 2019 and Just Away in 2014. And these two horses hadn't lost for more than two races before Yasuda Kinen.

The End

Caterpillar