5:30 p.m. 18 horses seem to be runing in Niigata Kinen this year. Now the concern is on the barrier draw and the weather.

The weekly forecast for Niigata Race Course says slight rain is expected on Saturday though Sunday would be sunny. Well, that's the kind of weather that makes it more difficult to assume the track condition because Saturday's race results don't always become a help to predict Sunday's track condition.

Mr. Njima who called up to say he wasn't sure if he should buy tickets for Niigata Kinen as there weren't any of HIS horses running. MY Sanrei Pocket surely would be advantaged if the track condition is soft. He'd also need to draw an inner post, though.

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Caterpillar

7:04 p.m. The barrier draw has been released. Sanrei Pocket has drawn an inner post which is good for this horse.

There aren't many front runners this year and the pace doesn't look like it's going to be tight. Average at best, possibly slow I assume. The last 3 furlongs could get pretty fast.

Considering the damaged inner course (and the trend of the past two years), from Echt to the outmost Feengrotten might have drawn good posts. But if the pace becomes slow, I shouldn't get the inner post starters off the hook yet. Should keep an eye on Feengrotten too, in case he takes the lead like Jinambo.

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Caterpillar

8:37 p.m. Assuming that Niigata turf would stay dry for tomorrow. Also assuming that the inner turf must be quite damaged (that's probably why all the horses are led outside on the homestretch) and it's going to be an instantaneous speed contest since the pace won't be tight.

Given that, I've tried to choose the horses with instantaneous speed and got torn between Echt and Kaiser Barows. Actually, still swaying back and forth between them. But if it's going to be a slow pace (or average) which stages the instantaneous speed contest, horses that performed well in their previous races have the advantage unless they are stressed with left-over damage.

For my last grade race of this summer season, I'll key Echt on a wheel of Sanrei Pocket, Diamant Minoru, Scar Face, Kaiser Barows, and Feengrotten.

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Caterpillar

6:56 p.m. Have amazingly lost Niigata Kinen, the last of the summer grade races as expected.

The pace bcame slow lead by Kaiser Barows (why didn't you tell me you'd take the lead?) so the race did turn out to be an instantaneous speed contest and it must have been difficult for horses that positioned behind. Still, You Can Smile came dashing in 2nd place with the fastest last 3 furlongs, swinging the last corner last of all 18 horses. This shows how low this race's level was as the top 3 winners have all won a grade race. It was a 6-horse race as a matter of fact.

Now that my summer is over, will have to get back to the usual race calling though I only have worries left. Wonder when I'd win next?

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Caterpillar

2:31 p.m. So the autumn races are starting this weekend. At Chukyo, Centaur Stakes a step for Sprinters' Stakes will be held.

Chukyo race course has been put to rest after mid-June awaiting for the autumn races which suggests a firm and fast turf if the weather is fine. Have pulled up on the screen the past 10 years' results and aha! Centaur Stakes has been held on Chukyo turf for the past 2 years (affected by the rennovation of Kyoto) and both years have finished with a fast finshing record of 1 minute 7 seconds range.

3-year-olds have been doing pretty well in this race on the premise when they are in good condition and have achievements of winning grade races. That's what I came up with when gathering information for Niigata Kinen. I guess this basically stays the same.

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Caterpillar

6:23 p.m. Have checked last year's notes to find that I'd bought betting tickets for horses that finished first, second, 4th and fifth. Kurino Gaudi... IfI'd bought Kurino Gaudi, I'd have won though the payout was small.

In order to avoid the same mistake, I need to be careful when handling horses that have high level achievements in their earlier career. From the horses entered this year, Meikei Yell might fall in tha category, but she'd probably the most favored.

The grade race winners entering so far are Jean Gros, Songline, Buon Voyage, Meikei Yell and Mondreise. This might be a good place to start.

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Caterpillar

2:26 p.m. Perhaps you might have noticed but lately the time to write has been changing day by day. It just shows how my lifestyle hasn't been as stable as before, heh. I've been struggling with time manaagement for a while. As you can see, I'm not good with management which also appears in how I buy betting tickets.

News of Centlight Kinen held a week and a half ahead has been delivered to tell Ask Victor More, Lagulf, Seiun Hades, Born This Way, Onyankopon and others are entering. That's something to look forward to. I'm curious how Ask Victor More would do.

Meanwhile I went through the entry list for Centauras Stakes and these are the horses my intuition meter has shook so far: Meikie Yell, Mondreise, Comstock Lode, and Chandelier Moon.

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Caterpillar

2:27 p.m. The entry has been closed for Centaur Stakes and it will be run with 15 horses this year. A slightly smaller field compared to last year's 17.

Horses that flicked my intuition meter all seem to have made it to the entry. Some of you might have wondered why I'm interested in Comstock Lode rather than Jean Gros while I think achievemnts of winning grade races are important. The reason is simple.

Jean Gros might have higher potential than Comstock Lode however, I can't be sure about his condition. I was worried the horse could be quite fatigued after winning 3 races in a row before his summer break. In his previous race NHK Mile Cup, he couldn't go up front like in his usual races possibly, because he was tired. So I thought I'd sleep on my decision until I hear about his workouts.

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Caterpillar

6:38 p.m. Starting late today. The barriers for Centaur Stakes must have been drawn hours ago. I pulled up the racing form on the screen and huh? The field has grown even smaller down-sizing to 13 horses. Where have two others gone? If there are only 13 horses running, things would be different from what I'd expected.

Don't think there would be much advantages of the draw when there are only 13 horses running. The weight of the pace and track condition becomes heavier. If the pace drops, then the horses going up front and the horses that drew inner posts would have the advantage, though I don't think it would be a slow paced race since it's a sprint race after all.

Also, drawing outer posts won't benefit horses that stay behind even when the pace gets tight, as they will have to bear the course loss while the front runners and inner-post drawers' speed won't drop on the homestretch.

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Caterpillar

8:18 p.m. Have worked hard today, cleaning the house, an hour of meeting, and then finally calling Centaur Stakes.

Not quite sure if I could trust Meikei Yell as she has trouble harmonizing as you might already know, though I think she could finish within 3rd place if she runs with 80% of her strength.

Am betting on the wheel of Chandelier Moon, Sunrise Honest, Mondreise, Daddy's Vivid, and Songline (just in case) keying Meikei Yell. The payout might not be much but for me it's more important to get myself back on the winning track.

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Caterpillar

5:31 p.m. Okay, I've called the first, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh place right and lost Centaur Stakes. As you already know, last year I've called the first, second, fourth and fifth place right and lost it. Am I getting closer or what?

Last year it was Kurio Gaudi that prevented my winning, this year it was First Force. First Force, I've given you so many chances and just when I've given up on you! Though of course, things like this happens actually, happens a lot in horse racing.

Let me just hope I'm having a start of the autumn season not good but not so bad either.

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Caterpillar

8:14 p.m. Reviewing last year's Centaur Stakes, I thought I'd made a mental note to keep grade winners on the wheel to avoid the same mistake. Yet I've done it again. Guess I never learn.

Have had a call from a friend right after I got back from my daily exercise (and shopping) which got me tied up until now. Though something struck me shile I've been scanning the entry form for Rose Stakes. Maybe it could bring me a breakthrough. I hope that would come true.

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Caterpillar

6:24 p.m. Full-fledged trial races for the autumn G1 will start from this weekend. Before those, Prix Niel has been run in France and Do Deuce has lost in 4th place. Doesn't matter since the conditions didn't meet the horse and it was run only as a step.

Back to the domestic step races. Rose Stakes will be run at Chukyo as well as last year on Sunday, while Centlight Kinen will be run at Nakayama on Monday since it's a holiday. And as mentioned earlier, I'm quite interested in the performance of Ask Victor More running Centlight Kinen.

From his performance in D'erby, I'm thinking he could be the type to do well in Kikka-sho. Over the years I've learned that some Deep Impact descendants are good at running long distance races, just like Fierement. Centlight Kinen would be a key test to see if Ask Victor More is one of them.

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Caterpillar

1:05 p.m. Just a short one today, since a friend is coming over.

They say another typhoon is coming up around the weekend which might hit Kansai Area. This could affect the track condition of Chukyo where Rose Stakes will be held. Depending on the route of the typhoon, the track could become yielding or muddy.

And if Rose Stakes was to be held in such condition, there's a high possibility the results won't link with Shuka-sho coming up ahead. This rings an alert on the top 3 finishers of Rose Stakes if they run in Shuka-sho, whether they're favored or not.

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Caterpillar

5:55 p.m. My friend seemed to have succeeded in transfering money via his smartphone, which was why he came to visit yesterday. He hasn't called so that means things went well, I guess. As they say, no news is good news.

Now I could finally get down to look into Rose Stakes. Horses running in Oaks in their previous races could be good to key on a wheel since they've been performing well. The borderline to pick up or not would be whether the horse has performed well in a grade race before or not.

For the past two years while Rose Stakes were held at Chukyo, there are two horses that meet the formerly said condition, Art de Vivre and Ria Amelia. They've both lost in Oaks 5th and 4th place respectively, though have performed well in earlier grade races. Art de Vivre finishing in 2nd with little gap in Queen Cup, Ria Amelia winning Artemis Stakes.

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Caterpillar

6:52 p.m. The barrier draw for Rose Stakes has been released. There will be 14 horses running this year.

What's concerning is the typhoon predicted to hit Kyushu. Depending on its course, Chukyo's track condition would be affected. If the track becomes soft, front-running horses and horses starting from inner posts would have the advantage. Front runners have been performing well last week too, so I think it would be difficult for horses positioning behind to take over the front runners.

Can't say much until I see the results tomorrow but I'm afraid Memory Raison or My Symphony might have a hard time. Perhaps even Saliera, too if she stays behind. I'm not sure which horse is going to take the lead, though I have a hunch it wouldn't be a wire to wire finish just like Kinko-sho when Gibeon beat Daring Tact. It's a trial race for Shuka-sho. The leading horse would dedinitely be targeted.

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Caterpillar

8:43 p.m. Sorry for the delay, I've been working late.

Having pondered the horses with their previous race being Oaks, I decided that Personal High isn't appropriate to key though she's finished 2nd in Flora Stakes. Things would have been different if she'd finished 2nd in Queen Cup. Losing in 16th place in Oaks I thought, must be too big a loss to recover while being targeted from horses positioning behind her even if she was able to take the lead.

Art House hasn't won a grade race, so I tried to be simple and chose to key Saliera. Not that I trust her completely, but she has the instantaneous speed to finish within 3rd place in an average or slow race if her condition is well enough. On the wheel would be Saint Camellia, Minamoto Faith, Personal High, La Ruelle, and Art House, mostly inner post starters.

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Caterpillar

7:03 p.m. Actually, I nearly keyed La Ruelle or Personal High so it was right to eventually key Saliera. It would have even been better if I'd been able to key Art House and keep Eglantyne on the wheel. At least I feel I'm getting closer.

Saliera has performed up to my expectation enough to show she could also perform well in Shuka-sho if she could keep her condition. The 3-week interval could be too short for the horse considering the long transport to Hanshin. Or is she going to stay in Chukyo?

Will have to look into Centlight Kinen, now. Nakayama should have muddy tracks tomorrow so powerful front-runners would be the ones to target.

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Caterpillar

6:01 p.m. And finally. I've keyed Ask Victo More on a wheel of Rousham Park, Matenro Sky, Shounan Magma, and Gaia Force to finally put a period to my consecutive losses.

The payout wasn't much as you know but that's not the point. The important thing is that I won. Katsuragi Ace in the photo printed on my coaster seems to be smiling at me, too. Or is he sneering at me?

Just how many losses have I piled up since D'erby, anyway? 17, 17 losses in a row. Quite surprised. I mean, I thought I've lost more. Well, it wasn't such a big deal after all.

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. Have finished reviewing both Rose Stakes and Centlight Kinen.

Casting eyes on Shuka-sho, I think Saliera is more hopeful than Art House, though Art House could be more favored. Art House was pretty much advantaged with the barrier draw, track condition, and the pace while Saliera proved that her instantaneous speed could match G2 level although she wasn't all that advantaged. Of course, we can't forget Stunning Rose, Circle of Life, and Stars on Earth.

As for Centlight Kinen, I was quite impressed by Ask Victor More, the horse of my interest. An-katsu (ex-jockey Katsumi Ando) says 3000m on Hanshin is too long for the horse, but I'm against that idea. In my humble opinion, Ask Victor More has had an ideal start to perform well in Kikka-sho. If he's the type of Deep Impact descendant as I think he is, he could even win depending on what other horses would enter Kiika-sho without Do Deuce or Geoglyph. I'm rather skeptical about Gaia Force. I'm not sure extending the distance would be good for the horse considering his background.

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Caterpillar

6:29 p.m. The typhoon has gone. It's good to be in a house where you don't have to worry about leaks or being blown away or carried away by water while you're asleep and wake up to find myself floating on Tokyo Bay.

Have checked on Equinox to find out he was aiming for Tenno-sho (fall). That means the the main role-players of spring won't be running in Kikka-sho, since Geoglyph is also aiming for Tenno-sho and Do Deuce, Prix de Arc. There's a chance for Ask Victor More, depending on the results of Kobe Shinbu-hai.

Shall start moving for All Comer while I'm in good spirits.

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Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. The entry for this weekend's All Comer has been closed, but more than half the horses seem to be back from long breaks. Daring Tact's 3 months seems to be rather short when compared with So Valiant's 10 months or Babbitt's 19 months, let alone Crystal Black's 29 months.

Calling the race could be quite hard with so many horses just coming back from long breaks. And I find myself wishing for bad weather again in the weekend knowing that it may sound imprudent, because it might help me if the conditions got ccloser to that of Centlight Kinen.

Will keep my fingers crossed and keep working on it while I wait for the barrier draw.

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Caterpillar

1:42 p.m. Checking the weather forecast. Erm... it doesn't look like it's gonna rain as much as I'd expected.

6:47 p.m. Another typhoon seems to be coming up passing through Tokyo sometime after tomorrow afternoon. Forecast says it would pass onto the Pacific by Sunday afternoon so the peak of rain and wind should be Saturday evening. Unless it shines from Sunday morning, it's hard to think Nakayama turf would dry up to be firm.

So far so good for me except for the fact I've been mistyping ds as my left middle finger is covered in bandage. On the premise that the track would be soft, All Comer would be a tough race for horses that stay in the back such as Robertson Quay, Geraldina, Crystal Black, Admire Alba, or even Daring Tact since the pace won't be so tight and the front runners would have the advantage.

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Caterpillar

7:27 p.m. Today's Nakayama turf has been run mostly with soft tracks getting slightly better to yielding towards the end of the day. However, forecast is showing sunny marks from tomorrow morning, meaning the track condition (and the results) could chance before All Comer, so today's results probably can't be relied on although I've worked hard to pick up any trends if there were.

The more I think, though the more it seems like a 3-horse race. The win odds reflect many people think the same way. Have pondered which to key but finally decided it as So Valiant.

Keying So Valiant on the first place, Weltreisende and Daring Tact on the second of trifecta, am going for a wheel of Geraldina, Weltreisende, Daring Tact, Crescendo Love, and Fly Like Bird.

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Caterpillar

6:10 p.m. So Valiant has suddenly dropped his position during the race. It got me worried since he was just back from a fracture however, it seems there's been an official release from the trainer that So Valiant has developed atrial fibrillation. That's a blessing he didn't hurt his bad leg again.

All Comer ended up in a total loss for me, though. Not that I would have won if So Valiant was all right, I didn't have either Robertson Quay nor Win Kiitos. I was quite skeptical about Daring Tact so am not surprised about her losing in 6th place, but what the hell was Weltreisende doing?

The horses I chose stayed way too behind in an average pace, too behind to make up for the gap between the leading horse. Another thing was that it must have been a power-consuming track although the turf was announced to have rcovered to firm.

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Caterpillar

6:50 p.m. The first of the autumn G1 series is going to be run this weekend, Sprinters' Stakes (lightning speed 6 furlongs).

By now you might already know I'm not good at sprint races (and dirt races), so this first G1 of the season has always brought me bitter memories. Though it's one of the G1 races that usually has a bigger payout and that's why I keep challenging, knowing I'm not good at it.

Looking at the entry form, I've realized there aren't many front-runners this year despite the short distance. Perhaps if she could take the lead alone smoothly, T M Spada might have a chance. On the contrary, I'm skeptical about Meikei Yell especially, not after she's won Centaur Stakes.

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Caterpillar

6:12 p.m. Was about to leave for my daily exercise when my smartphone rang. It was Mr. N-jima asking us a favor.

In reward for giving up my excercise, have drawn out from the old guy some information on Sprinters' Stakes that outer post starters were disadvantaged. Of course I didn't take that at face value.

Have pulled up the past 10 years' results to confirm what he said. It was partly true but there were some horses finishing in top three starting from outer posts, so I've dug in to find what they share in common.

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Caterpillar

6:38 p.m. So about horses thata performed well in the past 10 years starting from outer posts.

High performers starting from post number 10 and outer posts have either finished within 3rd place in a G1 or have won at least G3 while having little experience in G1. The former types were the favored horses, while the latter types were unfavored in win odds. In other words, outer post starters won't perform well unless they are either backed up with high G1 achievemnts or fresh G1 challengers with their potential supported by G3 wins, although their favority have dropped possibly because of recent losses.

Helpful information from a friend. This would make it a lot easier to narrow down the horses to buy, as you wouldn't have to worry about horses that drew outer posts which don't fit this condition.

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Caterpillar

7:04 p.m. The entry for Sprinters' Stakes has been closed. As I was about to start on my preparation, there was another incoming call this time not from a friend but from a client. Had to spend my afternoon for this client finally to be released just fifteen minutes ago.

It's going to be a full-field race with three 3-year-olds this year, though there doesn't seem to be a front runner that needs to take the lead. If so, T M Spada could run away as mentioned earlier. And personally, I think the 53kg weight could be quite an advantage if only the rider can keep the horse relaed during the race.

There seems to be no chance of rain for the weekend. Let's wait excited until the announcement of the barrier draw tomorrow morning.

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Caterpillar

7:00 p.m. The barriers have been drawn for Sprinters' Stakes, the first of this fall's G1 series.

Meikei Yell has drawn the disadvantaged outer post as well as Schnell Meister. T M Spada has drawn the inner-most post which according to my frind's advice, is not a good draw considering a runaway. On the other hand, Win Marvel drew post number 7, a pretty good draw.

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Caterpillar