7:20 p.m. The barrier draw for Osaka-hai has been released. I've forgotten to upload the draw at the time of Takamatsuno-miya Kinen (probably February Stakes, too) since it's been a while. Will do this time.

Efforia and Jackd'Or have both drawn inner posts, hmmm. If the pace doesn't become tight, I'm afraid horses starting from outer posts would have a hard time unless they could either keep an upfront position or able to sweep up from the 3rd corner. Bad news for King of Koji or Makahik.

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Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. Sorry yesterday's "Murumur" wasn't uploaded. It was Cow's bad not mine. And sorry again for keep you waiting for my call on Osaka-hai.

All things considered, I'm keying Efforia though I'm not gonna say he'd win. The weather I mean, the track condition is uncertain as well as the pace which I've set as a tight-ish average for the moment, so I can't quite nail it down, you see. My personal opinion is that the winner'd be Jack d'Or however, I'm putting him on the wheel to be on the safe side.

A front runner as he is, Jack d'Or can be very fragile depending on the situation, so I'll put him on the wheel with Akai Ito, Hishi Iguazu, Stellaria, and Lei Papale for now. Might delete Lei Papale to promote Arrivo instead.

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Caterpillar

5:52 p.m. Have screwed up the chance to win a longshot although I was given another chance right after Takamatsuno-miya Kinen...

The pace was just as I'd predicted, a tight-ish average or perhaps you might say it was a tight pace. It was good thinking putting the "fragile" Jack d'Or on the wheel, good thinking that Efforia probably won't win. Yet I didn't imagine Efforia to lose this big. Nor did I weigh Lei Papale heavy enough even though she was the defending champion meaning, that she had high aptitude for Hanshin 2000m. I underestimated her. It wasn't just because of the outer post she drew.

Perhaps I should have dug deeper into Hong Kong Cup since Lei Papale and Hishi Iguazu both have done well. Also, I should have realized that Potager had the chance to take a higher position (which he did today) especially, if the pace became tight-ish but I couldn't cover that far. Better keep working on this.

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Caterpillar

6:49 p.m. Feeling down having missed a great chance to win a longshot however, considering it was the first time after learning a bit from Takamatsuno-miya Kinen I'm consoling myself that I've only started a new challenge. Need to thoroughly review and uncover where I'd done wrong and how my actions should be changed in order to perform better.

Meanwhile, the spring classic races are starting from this weekend with Ohka-sho. Have an impression Hanshin JF winners are doing pretty well every year but will have to check that out to be observative. After all, one of the things which I believe must have mislead my judgement was that I was biased.

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Caterpillar

7:45 p.m. Reviewing while checking out the pat results of Ohka-sho. Some things take time, you see.

Meant to make sure if it was only my impression that Hanshin JF runners are doing well in Ohka-sho. It turns out that they're actually doing quite well. 8 years out of the past 10, either the 1st place winner or 2nd place winner of Hanshin JF is finishing in the top 3 of Ohka-sho.

Not much surprise there since the two races are run on the same course in the same distance. If a horse performs highly in Hanshin JF, you can at least say that the horse has high aptitude for this setting. It's not hard to imagine such horse could perform likely in Ohka-sho as long as the horse is not tired, injured, or badly conditioned.

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Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. Lately, Hanshin 1600m generally tend to be run in average or slow pace however, Ohka-sho doesn't seem to fit in that trend. It's been run in a tight pace 4 times in the past 10 years, 4 times in average pace. Actually, Ohka-sho used to be known as a high-lap G1 before Hanshin course was renewed.

I suppose the pace largely relies on the line-up of the horses and the barrier draw, so will have to wait until Thursday to assume how the race would unfold.

On the other hand, there's something that caught my eye. Post number 9 and 10 are doing well, finishing within 3rd place almost every other year. I've brief-checked the pedigree of them all and they were descendants of either Deep Impact, Daiwa Major, Rulership or King Kamehamha. Might be good to keep such descendants on the wheel in case they do well again.

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Caterpillar

7:21 p.m. It's Thursday and the awaited barrier draw has been released.

From the order of the horses, the pace could be average to tight. Possibly tight. It might be good news for horses like Water Navillera though bad news for Sublime Anthem, Lilac or Namur since htey seem to have left-over damage from their previous races.

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Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. Writing late today since I had to go out. However, am pretty happy having bought Kana Akatsuki's newly released novels on my way home. Saving those till next week, though as I must focus on Ohka-sho.

The win odds is moving up and down. I didn't expect Circle of Life to drop down as low as the 9th favored in win odds, but then it's only Friday. The odds will keep moving until Sunday and the win odds would probably be split by a couple of horses because there doesn'tt seem to be a particular horse that has outstanding potential.

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Caterpillar

9:14 p.m. As the win odds are spilt among multiple horses, my mind has also been split unable to pin down a horse to key. My sore scale calculated 3 horses tied at top score; Alluring Way, Lovely Your Eyes and Circle of Life.

Weighing heavy the winning career of Hanshin JF and how the horse seems to have been conditioned without much trouble, I decided to key Circle of Life though the post she drew is a bit concerning. On the wheel would be Alluring Way, Water Navillera, Cross Majesty, Lovely Your Eyes, and Pressage Lift.

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Caterpillar

4:57 p.m. Despite the third chance given again, I've screwed it up to win a moderately big payout. It's time I sat down to thouroughly examine my failures in order to reach a solution both solid and sustainable. I'm giving up the time for mya almost-everyday exercise to face it.

I've known that Ohka-sho would not end with the top 3 or 4 favored horses yet wasn't able to choose the right horse to key. This means the failure of my score scale which needs to be adjusted according to the payout. I need to figure out what factors should be added when the race is assumed to have a bigger payout. To figure out the factor(s) I need to add, will have to study the results of the past three races Takamatsuno-miya Kinen, Osaka-hai, and Ohka-sho well enough.

It's going to be a lot of work but will have to go through it anyway as long as I keep buying betting tickets.

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Caterpillar

6:34 p.m. Had to go out to the dentist for a check-up. I was once on the brink of losing teeth though thankfully, my teeth were doing fine.

Another nice thing today was that I might have found a clue for a breakthrough on winning wild races. Not quite sure, not just yet but am hoping it would take me a step further. If so, it would definitely help me perform a bit better during the spring season when I usually fly low mainly because there are fewer races for older horses than the autumn G1 season.

Will get back to work now, hoping for a better future.

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Caterpillar

7:55 p.m. Diligently working on my project while going out for another long meeting for the house renewal. Every time the meeting takes a couple of hours, sometimes longer. It's quite exhausting and confusing that usually, I start to feel like I don't care what color or texture the discussed material should be as the meeting gets long.

So far I've figured out that I should add the factor of race level to my score scale but not sure how to judge the race level objectively. Generally, a race level is judged by the grade of the race, topped by G1, then G2, G3. However, I believe there are more factors that raise the level of races, such as the lap time or the number of horses run.

Guess I need to break down the concept of a high level race into factors consisting them in order to define which races should be called high level or low.

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Caterpillar

8:03 p.m. Still working diligently while stupid Cow is taking a nap. Won't give him advice on betting tickets anymore.

Have got down to examining Satsuki-sho making use of what I've learned from digging into Ohka-sho. One thing I realized after I started this task is that the classic races for 3-year-olds have trial races where the top few horses are given priority to enter Ohka-sho. And I could use these races as a measure to judge the possibility of potential horses' performances.

If what I'm thinking is right, I should be able to use the same technique on Satsuki-sho or Oaks, D'erby. Not only that, but the basic concept could also be applied to older horses' races. Will do my best to keep up the work.

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Caterpillar

8:34 p.m. I've overestimated myself and got into a labyrinth of classic races while the barrier draw for Satsuki-sho has been released.

Equinox drawing the outmost post might be a disadvantage considering the course however, the horse might have outstandingly high potential. He'd get over it in that case.

Danon Beluga might have drawn a good post as well as Satono Helios, Justin Palace, Onyankopon, Do Deuce, or Lagulf. On the other hand, a tight pace would be welcome for Ask Victor More, Killer Ability, Justin Rock, and Dante's View, horses that don't like to be squashed in the field.

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Caterpillar

6:51 p.m. Working hard to call Satsuki-sho. Feel like I might be seeing the silver lining.

I don't know why and how but Danon Beluga somehow seems to be very favored. The win odds are currently very active and a couple of minutes ago Danona Beluga was the most favored followed by Geoglyph. Wait. There seems to have been a big bet. Now Equinox has suddenly shot up to the top from the 8th favored, pushing Danon Beluga down to the 3rd.

Can't trust the odds until it's a bit more settled. Though might as well feel out the reason why Danon Beluga is favored. His performance largely relies on whether the rider could lead him to a position where the horse could gain speed freely. Seen from my eyes, it seems difficult to achieve that from the post Beluga drew unless the lap becomes tight or the track becomes soft.

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Caterpillar

8:26 p.m. Didn't have enough time today as I had to go out for work again, so the score scale isn't finished yet.

My current decision is to key Equinox. The crew have intentionally skipped trial races back counting to win the D'erby because they thought this horse could.

On the wheel would be Ask Victor More, Justin Rock, Justin Palace, Onyankopon, and Desierto (it seems the inner track is pretty damaged). I might come up with another different decision after I've put the horses on my score scale though unfortunately, this is the best I could do for now.

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Caterpillar

10:56 p.m. I thought I saw a faint light of hope, even bought a win for Equinox and then, this.

Hard work ususally goes unrewarded while Cow wins a trio. Congrats, pal.

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Caterpillar

7:05 p.m. Should have bet all the money on the place for Equinox, that's a regret. Mind is sinking deep unable to rise up to the surface so I've tried taking a look at the entry form for Tenno-sho spring running two weeks ahead to cheer me up.

I knew it. Less and less top horses are entering the now outdated marathon race but this year it's worth lamenting. Titleholder is the only G1 winner and there are only three G2 winners Deep Bond, Divine Force and You Can Smile.

I'm afraid it can't be called a G1 race.

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Caterpillar

7:18 p.m. Motivation has dropped seeing the entry form of Tenno-sho spring. Don't have any idea how I could raise it back again. Someone said though, you don't need to raise your motivation in the first place because if you're doing whatever you like doing, you'll keep doing it whether the results are good or bad. If your motivation is down, then that's something you don't like to do so ditch that and focus on what you like to do.

Sounds true since I find myself trying to figure out which horse might perform well in this weekend's Flora Stakes, a trial race for the Oaks which I usually don't give a damn as it mostly becomes a wild race with a big payout. Come to think of it, I've been giving up before even challenging.

Perhaps I'll give it a try this year.

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Caterpillar

6:58 p.m. Have been working hard. Can't just give up and scuttle away from hardships, I'm a born fighter. Just because I've lost a couple of races or let big fish get away several times, that doesn't mean I'll never catch one. As they say, the game'll be over if and when you give up.

So here I am trying to verify a hypothesis. Have run through the past 2 or 3 years of Satsuki-sho and so far the results are looking good. Need to check if it works on various other races to make sure, though. After that I'll have to put it on a demonstration experiment.

Maybe Flora Stakes really might be a good chance for a demo-run.

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Caterpillar

6:36 p.m. Have put the hypothesis on a couple of simulations. The results weren't bad but some loose ends were revealed. Need to revise it to make it work.

I may be getting my foot in the door or may be not, just can't tell at this point. It could be the beginning of hell or a stairway to heaven, who knows? Still I have to trudge on to see the end.

Will have to try more tests anyway to uncover specific problems so I could make it work and win races. Might have been lucky since we're not having G1 races tis weekend. If I could finish it up by the end of the week, I could start running it at the time of Tenno-sho.

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Caterpillar

6:13 p.m. Revising isn't an easy job. Need to run many tests and see specifically where my hypothesis isn't working. Progress is slow and I'm beginning to get tired of it.

To freshen up a bit, I'm thinking of betting on Milers' Cup tomorrow and see how it works. If it works fine, that's good. But if it doesn't work out, will have to revise it and check the outcome with Sunday's Flora Stakes. Trial and error, you see.

Either way I'll have to work, work, work throughout the weekend though that's nothing if I succeed.

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Caterpillar

6:28 p.m. Have made a terrible mistake. I thought Milers' Cup was going to be run today but that was Sunday, tomorrow. It was Fukushim Hinba Stakes that was going to be run today. How confusing when races are held at three different race courses at one time!

Because of such mistake, I failed to test my hypothesis today leaving only tomorrow for the test run. Darn. Nevertheless, I've called Milers' Cup (although it was a mistake) so am psting my call here. I'd key Karate on a wheel of Falconia, Air Fanditha, Air Lolonois, Soul Rush, and Daiwa Caney.

Oh, no. No, no, no. I'd called the race to be run today in fair weather. Rain is expected tomorrow morning around Hanshin! Taking that into account, will have to change mya call to Karate on a wheel of Falconia, Houou Amazon, Satono Arthur, Soul Rush, and Daiwa Cagney. And now, let me get to calling Flora Stakes.

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Caterpillar

6:47 p.m. Results are looking good. Both Milers' Cup and Flora Stakes have proven my hypothesis well.

I owe you an apology, though since I've changed (revised, to be precise) my call for Milers' Cup and won a place of Hou O Amazon. Have once made a terrible mistake of sloppy work after I've realized the track condition was going to be soft. I remembered that last night and done the call all over again to key Ho O Amazon on a wheel of Falconia, Karate, Red Belle Aube, Soul Rush and Daiwa Cagney.

As you can see, my new approach isn't perfect and it needs further revision which is the reason why I didn't bet on trio. Serves me right, eh? But you know, I've also won a place for Erika Vita, too. Hard work just beginning to pay off.

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Caterpillar

7:29 p.m. Since my hypothesis have proven right although partly, will work on building up a new approach in calling races. Hopefully, I'll make it in time for Tenno-sho but perhaps it would be incomplete.

For the moment, the only thing I could say is that betting on Titleholder's win may be quite dangerous. I'd rather choose Deep Bond if it were the choice between these two. In fact, I'd say even Deep Bond could be risky for a win bet though he might finish 2nd or 3rd.

So which horse would win I know, is the most concerning question though that would have to wait until the weekend. I have a lot of work to be done by then.

The End

Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. Progress is slow as I haven't been feeling very well today. Shouldn't act in haste even though there's a lot of work to do. Telling myself to slow down and take one step at a time.

Have checked out the past winners of Nikkei-sho but horses that performed well in Tenno-sho have all won Nikkei-sho as the top favored, with at least a length's gap. In order to perform well in grade races, the ideal is to easy-win the step race with more than two lengths' gap being the most favored. Situation seems bad for Titleholder.

Speaking of step races, there's no horse entering this year's Tenno-so spring that have run Osaka-hai as their step. Pity as it could be a good step for Tenno-sho.

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Caterpillar

7:33 p.m. Sigh. Once again looking at the disappointing entrees of Tenno-sho spring. No wonder Deep Bond is so favored, as he's the closest horse to a G1 winner.

Titleholder probably wants to go up front and if possible, take the lead. The rider wouldn't want to push but the horse needs to take the lead to perform well since Titleholder has done a wire to wire finish in all the races he won. Whether he could take the lead or not depends on the barrier draw.

If Iron Barows or Tagano Diamante insist, Titleholder would be pushed in a tight corner. It could even become a tight lap despite the long distance the horses have to run, depending on the barrier draw. Let's look forward to tomorrows draw release.

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Caterpillar

4:15 p.m. The barrier draw has been released. I'd set the pace to be average to tight. Titleholder has drawn an outer post and he wouldn't want to be left in the field of horses.

Deep Bond has also drawn an outer post actually, the outmost post but Ryuji Wada probably thinks that he doesn't necessarily have to fight to go up front. Heart's Histoire, Machaon d'Or, Heat on Beat, and Robertson Quay have drawn good posts while there might be a chance for You Can Smile or T O Royal if the track becomes soft wit rain.

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Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. Struggling with Tenno-sho. Currently, all the grade race winners have disappeared from my list except for Deep Bond. That's just temporarily, though since I haven't included the track condition yet.

The forecast only says cloudy with partial rain for Sunday's Hanshin so I can't quite guess what the trac condition could be like. To me, it's important to know how the track might be because it affects my call. Sometimes it even turns everything over as you already know from last week.

Hopefully, tomorrow the forecast would update me with more details. Also, I'll be able to see the results of tomorrow's races. That might be some help.

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Caterpillar

8:46 p.m. Went out on business but my client didn't show up. Eventually, the meeting was cancelled on the spot because my client had forgotten the appointment and gone out, humph.

Have been moaning all afternoon since I got back trying to take in account that Hanshin will probaly have soft track tomorrow and that there isn't a suitable horse that could win Tenno-sho. Deep Bond? I'm afraid of the rider keeping him too behind to let some other horse(s) finish before him. The theory for soft track is that front runners and trailers from the inner posts have the advantage.

Haven't yet reached a conclusion however, the clock is ticking so will write my current decision keying Heat on Beat on a wheel of Iron Barows, Heart's Histoire, Machaon d'Or, Tagano Diamante, and Deep Bond.

The End

Caterpillar