5:39 p.m. Late last night, I suddenly remembered that I had set my self a rule when to bet on place. How come I always recall important things after I'd already done a blunder, not before?

More than a year ago, I decided it wasn't smart to bet on place when my target horse's win odds is below 2.5 because the payout would be too low and I won't be able to collect enough to cover my expenditure. On the contrary, when the most favored horse's win odds is above 3 and I think the race would n't finish with just the top 3 favored, place odds mostly tend to be satisfying.

Reflecting this rule, both Negishi Stakes and Silkroad Stakes have been perfect races to bet on place rathe than trios or trifectas. You say it now, right?

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Caterpillar

6:23 p.m. When I reflect what I remembered, I shouldn't be betting on the place for Fine Rouge if she's running Tokyo Shinbun-hai since her expected win odds as of this evening is 2.5. I have a hunch her best performance would be on a soft track starting from an inner post with an extension in distance. Her range of distance may lie somewhere between 1400m to 1800m though she was able to handle 1200m and 2000m.

2400m apparently seems to be too long for Fine Rouge and shortening distances might also work as an advantage as long as she doesn't get squashed in the field which means she needs a tighter pace when shortening the distance.

Better also keep in mind that the female 4-year-olds weren't as high level as the male horses.

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Caterpillar

5:36 p.m. The entry for the weekend's races have been closed and it looks like Tokyo Shinbun-hai is running with 16 horses. Considering Tokyo is a spacious course unlike Chukyo or Koura, perhaps I shouldn't worry too much about horses that don't like other horses close by.

At Chukyo, Kisaragi-sho would be held with only 11 horses. That only raises the possibility of another instantaneous speed contest. However, a cold front is coming down around weekend so if there's a chance of snow piling up, things might be different. In that case, powerful front-runners might get the advantage. Though if snow piles up, there would be other concerns such as whether the races would behels in such condition or not.

Still undecided whic race to call, though am leaning towards Tokyo for now. I'd like to avoid calling both races since it exhausts me. A lesson learned from last week.

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6:25 p.m. Tokyo Shinbun-hai. Yes, I've decided to call Tokyo shinbun-hai instead of Chukyo.

The level of the race won't be that high I assume. The pace, probably slow to average which in that case, horses with instantaneous speed would have the advantage as well as horses carrying lighter weight. The track seems to be firm and fast, though will have to look closer tomorrow. Need to dig in deeper but that might have to wait, too.

Unfortunately, I have to go out tomorrow afternoon so I'm not sure how much further I could go but will do my best.

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7:13 p.m. Very tired after my bike trip out and back. Nnnnngh. I wanted to key Elusive Panther since he was the 3rd favored in win odds, which have been performing well in the past 10 years. But then, the score scale didn't grade him that highly.

So I'm keying Donna Attraente instead who scored the highest on the score scale. If my memmory isn't failing me, her sister Donau Blue was a Tokyo mile specialist. On the wheel would be Maltese Diosa, Fine Rouge, Elusive Panther, Catedral, and Curren Strauss.

I trust Kuniedda Stable for the horses' conditioning. Will leave the rest up to Mirco. Now I need to go watch moguls on tv.

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5:27 p.m. Donna Attraente did hang in there but she ran out of strength before the last furlong. Elusive Panther was the right answer, though I didn't include Karate so it was meaningless.

Karate turned out to be the repeater. I knew this race had some repeaters just like Yasuda Kinen however, Karate didn't meet the requirements repeaters needed and I couldn't be quite sure. Although he finished 3rd this year, he has downgraded his performance than last year while he didn't perform up to his expectations in win odds either, just like Fine Rouge who finished 2nd though she had all the advantage she needed to be the most favored.

Given that, Elusive Panther, Curren Strauss, Donna Attraente, and A Shin Chiller have done well considering their win odds.

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Caterpillar

6:23 p.m. Another week has begun and we're having Kyodo Tshushin-hai on Tokyo turf while substitute races for Kyoto have switched from Chukyo to Hanshin to hold the traditional Kyoto Kinen at Hanshin.

Being run on Hanshin turf, I assume Kyoto Kinen this year would be close to Takaraduka Kinen. Looks like many people have the same way of thinking since Uberleben is expected to the most favored. However, many factors are yet uncertain. Let's wait and see what happens.

Am not much interested in Kyodo Tsushin-hai for the moment although Geoglypha and Danon Scorpion are entering the race. The top horses aren't coming up on stage yet. They probably won't until Satsuki-sho. Meanwhile Win Eclair, Admire Cozzene's granddaughter and Win Bright's little sister is running in Queen Stakes held on Saturday. I'll be the cheerleader.

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5:56 p.m. On a second thought if Kyoto Kinen is going to resemble Takaraduka Kinen, Uberleben might not have the advantage.

Hanshin 2200m gives advantage to power type front runners. In fact, last year's Kyoto Kinen run on Hanshin turf finished with horses taking their positions and 3rd at the last corner. I don't see a horse that needs to take the lead among the entreees this year while most horses like to stay n the back. Perhaps the pace could become slow.

Even if the pace lags to a slow, the advantage for front runners stays unchanged especially, when the track becomes soft. The forecast for Hanshin this weekend shows overcast, partly sunny but it would be better to go up front, I guess. Gotta catch up on the women's hockey match now, Czech vs. Japan.

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7:07 p.m. Kyoto Kinen is probably going to be a small-field race since there are only 13 horses entered and there might be some scratch offs. Even if no horse scratched off, it won't be a full-field race anyway.

That gives chances to horses that didn't (or couldn't) perform well in a full-field race. I'm thinking of the possibility of Red Genesis as he could be the type that do better on courses that have an uphill or in long distances, just like Fierement (though much lower in rank). However, his big loss in Kikka-sho and his position might become the bottleneck.

They say it would snow from early tomorrow morning in Tokyo and all day they were calling out for precautions. If it would also snow in Hanshin this weekend, that would push up the possibility for Red Genesis.

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7:06 p.m. Hmmm. Besides Red Genesis, there may be chances for Maria Elena, Uberleben or even old Makahiki. Can't quite decide when the barriers haven't been drawn yet.

Sure, Sanrei Pocket might have a chance too, but in my humble opinion I think he performs better at Tokyo in a bigger field race. Perhaps if the track condition becomes soft, though that would also benefit other horses including the three I just named.

Well, just have to wait and see. I may be able to guess the pace after the barrier draw.

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Caterpillar

6:50 p.m. The barrier draw has been announced and I'm setting the pace as average to slow. Don't think the pace would become tight if African Gold would be pushed out to take the lead, since there don't seem to be any rivals that want to fight against him.

And if this would be the case, I'm guessing the first 3 furlongs to be somewhere between 36 to 36.5 seconds, hopefully faster than 37 seconds. This would give Maria Elena a chance considering that she performs better when the lap becomes tighter than her previous race.

Red Genesis has also drawn a good post though it might not be easy to come back from his previous huge loss as you can see from the results of last week's Silkroad Stakes. Anyway, it's too early to make decisions yet. Will have to check out tomorrow's race results to make up my mind.

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8:37 p.m. Sorry for the delay. My call for Kyoto Kinen was almost done when I learned that the forecast was predicting rain for Hanshin tomorrow, and had to do it all over again. Not that it made much difference.

Will key Uberleben on trio. If it rains and the track becomes soft, it would surely be an advantage for the daughter of Gold Ship. The track was dry today and it looked pretty fast but if the track becomes soft, that would benefit those that are good at running soft tracks as well as horses that go up front from inner posts just like I'd mentioned earlier this week. Uberleben don't go up front though I think Mirco can handle the situation since he's been riding today, too.

On the wheel would be Maria Elena, Red Galant, Sanrei Pocket, and Red Genesis. Geraldina could handle soft track fundamentally, though I think it would have been better if she'd drawn an inner post for that matter.

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5:48 p.m. Oh, no. A disaster. Not only has Uberleben ran short in 5th place but Red Genesis has sunk to the lowest 13th.

Have got a black mark against myself. I've said yesterday that I had to do my call all over because I called the race to be on a fast track but that was a lie. I'd just added the factor of soft track without reconsidering how the race could develop on a soft track. I'd mentioned front runners (especially the ones starting from inner posts) would have the advantage on soft tracks yet didn't take the time to review which horse that might be, although I guessed African Gold would probably take the lead and Tagano Diamante, possibly second.

Don't see how I could win February Stakes coming up this weekend in such miserable state.

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Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. Trouble after trouble. Finally got down to my computer tapping the keyboard half asleep.

Have run through the entrees of February Stakes only as a routine for Monday. Have a lot of work to do though am not up to facing it, no, not after last week's disaster. Sigh.

Cafe Pharaoh is going to be the defending champion who has the possibility to become a repeater this year as well as Air Spinel, but his challenge seems to be difficult considering his performance for the past couple of races after he'd won February Stakes last year. Not sure if T O Keynes would enter though if he does, I have a hunch he'd be in the center this year.

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6:13 p.m. In vain attempt to raise my motivation, will try thinking the possibility of Sodashi performing well, at least better than Champions' Cup.

Her pedigree background suggests the change of course from Chukyo to Tokyo would work as an advantage. Many of you probably remember how well her father Kurofune has performed on Tokyo mile. Her grandfather French Deputy descendants perform better on spacious courses like Tokyo.

Since Sodashi is shortening the distance from 1800m, it would be natural to think she'd take her position in the front rather than take the lead as she did in Champions' Cup. If she does, it would benefit her when the pace stays at average. If the pace either lags to a slow or becomes too tight, the horses in the back would have better grip. Slight rain or snow is expected in the weekend which might also work to Sodashi's advantage.

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8:04 p.m. Trying to think about how the pace would be like.

In the past 10 years, only twice was run at average pace 2014 and 2019. Both races finished with front runners including Inti's wire to wire. So I'm guessing that the front runners would have the advantage if the pace become average, while the trailers with instantaneous speed would benefit in case when the pace gets tight.

Can't say much since the entree isn't even closed yet, though I don't see many front runners on this year's entry list so perhaps it won't become such a tight pace this year. If so, that would be a blessing for front runners.

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Caterpillar

5:55 p.m. Well, the flip side of it is that February Stakes is likely to become a tight pace at an average of 80&.

Today the entry has been closed and it transpired that neither T O Keynes nor Marche Lorraine is running. They've scratched off. Not unexpected since they are both entered in Saudi Arabia Cup.

Now when taking in account the possibility of a fast track due to rain (or snow), the horses that would have the advantage would be the ones with instantaneous speed that also perform well on wet, fast dirt. Need to remember though, there might be a front runner among them in case the pace became average.

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Caterpillar

7:37 p.m. The barrier draw for February Stakes has been announced and it looks like the pace is going to be tight. That means horses with instantaneous speed have the advantage.

Now the remaining concern is the track condition. If the track condition becomes muddy as well as power consuming, then the powerful front runners will get their chances back. Rain is predicted for Tokyo from tomorrow noon though it depends on when it will stop.

If the track gets muddy, horses starting from the innermost post will have a difficult time.

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6:45 p,m. Have pondered thinking this way and that. After all, haven't won February Stakes in my pretty long career except for once or twice. And I want to win this year.

Went once around and came back to the start to key Cafe Pharaoh. If there's no T O Keynes and no Marche Lorraine, the race should resemble last year. No, I am not trusting Sodashi. Not especially when she's the top favored.

On the wheel would be Inti, Suave Aramis, T M South Dan, and Air Spinel. Will also bet on place for Cafe Pharaoh since the win odds suggests me to do so.

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Caterpillar

6:09 p.m. Because Daiwa Cagney didn't fo up front, the pace settled for an average to let Sodashi remain in 3rd place. Inti also lagged behind which was critical considering the pace.

It was Cafe Pharaoh (and Yuichi) that saved me however, I should have bet on win rather than place. I curse my own sloppiness in betting although my call wasn't all that bad.

Nevertheless I've won my place and have collected my winning money that made my day. Otherwise I couldn't have gone through the daunting job of listening to my mom's moaning on the phone.

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Caterpillar

7:36 p.m. On a second thought, I should have included Sodashi on my wheel since the payout was not small. I didn't think she'd dropped down to the 4th favored until the race was over.

Anyway, the past is already in the past and the spring Nakayama is starting from this week. For now my interest is on Panthalassa rather than the (expected) most favored Danon the Kid. Horses that perform well at Fukushima also perform well on Nakayama turf in many cases.

As for Hankyu-hai, the odds seemed to be spread among several horses. Need to check out this race (at least the results) since it's one of the step races to Takamatsuno-miya Kinen, another wall I need to conquer.

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6:32 p.m. Just checking out the trend for Nakayama Kinpai.

For the first week of spring Nakayama, the turf tends to get fast and horses that have high aptitude for firm, fast turf are likely to perform well. The track condition also backs up the high performances of inner post starters. When the track is fast, the inner posters get the advantage especially when the pace becomes slow. In such condition, outer post starters need to go up front.

Lately the number of horses entering this race are getting smaller resultigly making Nakayama Kinen a small-field race. This also expands the benefit for inner post starters.

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Caterpillar

5:45 p.m. The previous races of high performers in Nakayama Kinen for the past 10 years concentrate on either Nakayama Kinpai or G1 races. Horses that finished within 3rd place in Nakayama Kinpai have already proved their apptitude for Nakayama 2000m, so if they aren't too tired there's a good reason for their performance in Nakayama Kinen. The interval between these two races is 7 weeks which is enough to recover from a slight fatigue.

On the other hand, horses that run a G1 race before Nakayama Kinen seem to be doing well regardless of the course or distance. I'm assuming the experience of running in a higher level race is of more importance than the finishing positions. Though they also seem to need a trick of stimulation.

I wonder which Contra Check is running Nakayama Kinen or Hankyu-hai, but I'd be more interested in Panthalassa if Contra Check chooses Hankkyu-hai.

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Caterpillar

6:04 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend races and it looks like Contra Check is running Nakayama Kinen. If no horse scratches off, it will be a full-field race which has become rare in the recent years.

Whether Panthalassa could take the lead as she did in Fukushim Kinen is still uncertain. I guess it depends on the barrier draw. Well, I'll just have to cross my fingers and wait for the best.

Danon the Kid is the most favored in expected win odds as of today however, the past 10 years' results actually show the 2nd favored to have better rates in high performance. Danon the Kid's performance might depend on the barrier draw too, since he's already shown high aptitude on fast tracks.

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5:53 p.m. The barrier draw for the weekend races have been announced. Panthalassa has drawn post number 5 while Contra Check drew 14. The situation resembles that of Fukushima Kinen and Panthalassa will be faster to get her position. The remaining concern now is between Panthalassa and Taurus Gemini. The faster of the two would take the lead.

The result of the barrier draw suggests a tight pace however, it might not become so since 8 out of the past 10 years this race has run in either average or slow pace. Though in 2013 when this race was run with 15 horses, the pace became tight. The pace could become tight when certain conditions fall in one place.

If it becomes a high-lap race, horses like Red Scion, Win Exceed, Go for the Summit, World Revival might have the benefit besides Panthalassa. Speaking of World Revival, he might fit fast Nakayama turf.

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8:10 p.m. Can't move an inch more. Exhausted, will tap in my call nice and short.

I'm keying Panthalassa on a wheel of Taurus Gemini, Humidor, Karate, World Revival, and Danon the Kid. If the pace slackens against my call, perhaps Danon the Kid would sweep 'em all.

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Caterpillar

6:23 p.m. Don't I ever learn? Should have bet on Panthalassa's win instead of place. I knew Panthalassa could win just like Fukushim Kinen if he took the lead by a big gap, then my bet should have been put on win, not place. How many times do I have to make the same mistake, I wonder?

And Admire Hadar. He scored tie with World Revival on the score scale but I went for World Revival from a false confidence that the horse might do well on Nakayama, just because he performed well in Radio Nikkei-sho. Should have taken a closer look at the result of Radio Nikkei-sho. Then I might have realized World Revival's performance wasn't worth such high evaluation.

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Caterpillar

6:24 p.m. We're entering March this week and the step races for the spring G1 races such as Tulip-sho or Yayoi-sho will be run.

Both champions from Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes are entering these step races. Tulip-sho would be run on the same course and distance as Hanshin JF so it would be a matter of recovery for Circle of Life, I assume.

As for Do Deuce, things won't be so simple since the distance will be extended for another two furlongs while the course changes to Nakayama from Hanshin. I also need to check out Ocean Stakes for it might affect Takamatsuno-miya Kinen coming up at the end of March. Looks like it's going to be another busy weekend.

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Caterpillar