8:32 p.m. I hate to have to admit it, but losing has become my stadard. My Negishi Stakes finished with third, fourth, fifth, and seventh place.

After all, the horses starting from outer posts did not go up front therefore the pace settled at average, giving advantage to inner post lookers. The finishing record 1 min. 23.3 seconds is nothing out of the ordinary even considering the dry track condition, and I must say the level of this year's Negishi Stakes wasn't high. Lemon Pop won this race with 1 min. 22.5 seconds, you know? Well, that seems to explain why Lord Fons and Battle Cry finished first and second, while Emperor Wakea sunk in sixth place.

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Caterpillar

9:08 p.m. Just for my memory, it should be noted that the level of recent dirt grade races around this time of year are getting lower than before, thanks to the top horses mostly aiming the grade races in Dubai. I believe that's also the reason why Lord Fons and Battle Cry performed well in Negishi Stakes, a race in which repeaters are rare.

Also, though to be noted is that such drop in race level is limted to dirt races held before March and, that turf races should be thought differently. Because this weekend's grade races Tokyo Shinbun-hai and Kisaragi-sho are both run on turf. Let's make sure to switch our minds.

Tokyo turf seems to be in good condition just entering the second week after the opening, as the recorded time is pretty fast while the front runners are doing well. As for Kyoto, the most damaged inner part of the course has been covered by the temporal fence set since last week, but the condition of the turf is apparently better on the outside.

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Caterpillar

8:33 p.m. Today's work done, let's take a look at the trends of Tokyo Shinbun-hai.

Basically, the winning record is getting fast, super-fast recently, owing a lot to the turf condition. 1 minute 32 seconds range is pretty fast for a turf mile record, while it sometimes goes into the 31 seconds range. And as you can easily imagine, the finishing three furlongs are also fast mostly in the 33 seconds range apart from a few front runners.

Although it's a one-turn mile course with a long straight and a downslope at the beginning, the pace usually don't get so tight possibly, because of the short climb before entering the third corner. The course turns downhill after the climb towards the corner, so the lap time doesn't drop as they do at the corner where most horses want a break. As a result, Tokyo turf mile tends to flow steadily with the furlong time all alike.

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Caterpillar

8:39 p.m. Since the pace rarely gets tight in Tokyo Shinbun-hai, basically, it would be better to choose horses that can run the last three furlongs faster than others. That said, it depends on how the field would be formed during the race to decide which you should focus on, the inner post drawers or the outer post.

If the pace doesn't get fast, it would naturally be harder for horses staing behind to take over the horses running ahead of them especially when the track is either firm and fast or soft and time consuming on the contrary. Trailers starting from outer posts generally would have an even harder time considering the distance and course loss.

The only case they could neutralize this disadvantage is when there are several front runners starting from outer posts, that can take initiative to make a formation putting a lid on the horses taking the inner course. I think that's what happened in 2023.

Weighing the pace on one side and the formation on the other, I guess it's safer to keep horses with the fastest three furlong records on the buy list, whether they draw inner posts or out.

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9:01 p.m. You might also like to know that runaways occasionally perform well in Tokyo Shinbun-hai. They've finished above third place four times in the past 10 years, which I think, is not a bad rate considering that they were not odds-on favorites. Also for your information, these runaways all started from inner posts. If the inner post drawers get advantaged depending on the barrier draw, it might not be a bad idea to buy possible runaways like Emperor's Sword or Meisho Titan given that they draw inner posts.

The entry has been closed today and there will be 16 horses running in Tokyo Shinbun-hai this year. The forecast is threatening with snowfall again, so might as well be on the alert.

I'm going to skip tomorrow as I(we) need to attend an encouraging party for Mr. N-jima. Be back with my call on Saturday.

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Caterpillar