8:32 p.m. I hate to have to admit it, but losing has become my stadard. My Negishi Stakes finished with third, fourth, fifth, and seventh place.

After all, the horses starting from outer posts did not go up front therefore the pace settled at average, giving advantage to inner post lookers. The finishing record 1 min. 23.3 seconds is nothing out of the ordinary even considering the dry track condition, and I must say the level of this year's Negishi Stakes wasn't high. Lemon Pop won this race with 1 min. 22.5 seconds, you know? Well, that seems to explain why Lord Fons and Battle Cry finished first and second, while Emperor Wakea sunk in sixth place.

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9:08 p.m. Just for my memory, it should be noted that the level of recent dirt grade races around this time of year are getting lower than before, thanks to the top horses mostly aiming the grade races in Dubai. I believe that's also the reason why Lord Fons and Battle Cry performed well in Negishi Stakes, a race in which repeaters are rare.

Also, though to be noted is that such drop in race level is limted to dirt races held before March and, that turf races should be thought differently. Because this weekend's grade races Tokyo Shinbun-hai and Kisaragi-sho are both run on turf. Let's make sure to switch our minds.

Tokyo turf seems to be in good condition just entering the second week after the opening, as the recorded time is pretty fast while the front runners are doing well. As for Kyoto, the most damaged inner part of the course has been covered by the temporal fence set since last week, but the condition of the turf is apparently better on the outside.

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8:33 p.m. Today's work done, let's take a look at the trends of Tokyo Shinbun-hai.

Basically, the winning record is getting fast, super-fast recently, owing a lot to the turf condition. 1 minute 32 seconds range is pretty fast for a turf mile record, while it sometimes goes into the 31 seconds range. And as you can easily imagine, the finishing three furlongs are also fast mostly in the 33 seconds range apart from a few front runners.

Although it's a one-turn mile course with a long straight and a downslope at the beginning, the pace usually don't get so tight possibly, because of the short climb before entering the third corner. The course turns downhill after the climb towards the corner, so the lap time doesn't drop as they do at the corner where most horses want a break. As a result, Tokyo turf mile tends to flow steadily with the furlong time all alike.

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8:39 p.m. Since the pace rarely gets tight in Tokyo Shinbun-hai, basically, it would be better to choose horses that can run the last three furlongs faster than others. That said, it depends on how the field would be formed during the race to decide which you should focus on, the inner post drawers or the outer post.

If the pace doesn't get fast, it would naturally be harder for horses staing behind to take over the horses running ahead of them especially when the track is either firm and fast or soft and time consuming on the contrary. Trailers starting from outer posts generally would have an even harder time considering the distance and course loss.

The only case they could neutralize this disadvantage is when there are several front runners starting from outer posts, that can take initiative to make a formation putting a lid on the horses taking the inner course. I think that's what happened in 2023.

Weighing the pace on one side and the formation on the other, I guess it's safer to keep horses with the fastest three furlong records on the buy list, whether they draw inner posts or out.

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9:01 p.m. You might also like to know that runaways occasionally perform well in Tokyo Shinbun-hai. They've finished above third place four times in the past 10 years, which I think, is not a bad rate considering that they were not odds-on favorites. Also for your information, these runaways all started from inner posts. If the inner post drawers get advantaged depending on the barrier draw, it might not be a bad idea to buy possible runaways like Emperor's Sword or Meisho Titan given that they draw inner posts.

The entry has been closed today and there will be 16 horses running in Tokyo Shinbun-hai this year. The forecast is threatening with snowfall again, so might as well be on the alert.

I'm going to skip tomorrow as I(we) need to attend an encouraging party for Mr. N-jima. Be back with my call on Saturday.

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8:35 p.m. The threats became true and it really snowed in Tokyo today. Althuogh snow is not falling right now where I live, forecasts say it will start falling again. As a result, five races after Race 8 have been cancelled at Tokyo to avoid the risk of accidents. Forecast opinions seem to be divided between lasting snowfall and the contrary, so I just can't tell whether races will even be run tomorrow or not, let alone how the track condition might be.

Nevertheless, I'm back with my call for Tokyo Shinbun-hai as I promised on Thursday. I'm a caterpillar of my words. Here are the names on my list: Lavanda, Off Trail, Sakura Toujours, Emperor's Sword, Red Mon Reve, and Water Licht. I might add Sirius Colt in case the race runs on a good to firm track. But then, I will have to delete one from my list, which is a pickle.

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8:35 p.m. Full-fledged snow started to fall way past midnight and it was piling up around three in the morning. So it didn't come as a surprise when JRA announced today's Tokyo (and Kyoto) raes to be postponed. Well, there were times like this in the past. I'm not sure but it could have been Kisaragi-sho if my memory is correct.

Tokyo Shinbun-hai has been officially announced to run on... Tuesday! I'm sure the snow would be gone by then. Tuesday is a work day for me so personally I can't welcome the decision with all my heart, though I know it can't be helped considering the safety of the horses as well as the jockies.

At least they're not gonna draw the barriers again. That's one good news. Let's look at the bright side that the snow has given me some more time to think so that I can win. At the same time, let's NOT think TOO MUCH as to change the decisions I've already made after a lot of pondering.

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9:06 p.m. Thanks to the snow, I spent a sleepless night. It was too cold to sleep with the snow on the roof cooling the air in my bedroom as though I was in a freezer, and I recalled in my shallow sleep that cold air travels downward. As I was both cold as well as sleep-deprived, I wished that my client would cancell the meeting scheduled today as she often does, but then she somehow had a sudden change of mind to have the meeting, today of all days. As a result, I didn't get to have the time to think over my decisions for Tokyo Shinbun-hai. Well, that might turn out on the good side, though.

Checking the track condition measured today. JRA says Tokyo's turf condition to be good, cushion value 9.9, which is slightly to the firm side, moisture content before the finish line 13.5%, forth (last) corner 13.2%. They were all measured around 2 p.m. this afternoon and as we still have time before the race actually runs tomorrow afternoon, it's likely for the moisture to drop a bit more to recover the fast track condition.

This may be off topic, but it wa also announced at JRA website that they'd sprayed antifreeze on the dirt course (Tokyo) yesterday, just for your information.

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9:16 p.m. The pace wasn't slow, yet the front runners couldn't hang in.

I thought that the front runners would take initiative of the race and that the horses would run in a one-block formation, which would allow only the horses that are fresh or have supplied themselves in the previous race with toughness in longer distances previously. So I decided to include Sirius Colt instead of old Sakura Toujours.

But then, it turned out to be a race for closers completely. Also, inner post drawers were greatly advantaged owing to the track condition that you could almost say there was a track bias. Unfortunately, I didn't recognize that before the race. Must keep that in mind as similar condition is likely to seen in this weekend's Kyodo Tsushin-hai.

To wrap it up, it's been a terrible day. I want to get to bed already.

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8:33 p.m. Oh, no. My head was filled with Kyodo Tsushin-hai run at Tokyo for this weekend, but there's Kyoto Kinen at Kyoto. I totally forgot about that.

Kyoto turf is beginning to lean on the trailer and closer's side, giving them more advantage than front runners. I'll get torn between two races again where I don't really have much time as Tokyo Shinbun-hai has been postponed to Tuesday. Let's take a look at the entrees of each race, anyway.

Lovcen, the Hopeful Stakes winner is entering Kyodotsushin-hai, as well as Realize Sirius that ran in Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes previously, but that's about all for the big names. It also looks like it's going to be a small-field race. Whereas Kyoto has the entry of... 14 horses at the moment, which means that Kyoto Kinen also might become a small-field race. Additionally, Eri King and Redentor are entering. I'm sure the odds won't be so attractive, unless either one sinks.

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8:48 p.m. So which should it be Kyoto Kinen or Kyodo Tsushin-hai?

As I'd thought, the expected win odds is concentrated on Eri King and Redentor while the number of horses running in this race turned out to be 12. Meanwhile, Kyodo Tsushin-hai's entry has also been closed with only ine horses running. It's not difficult to assume the payout won't be much for either races, even if I won. That's why I haven't been able to make up my mind.

Since I can't decide, I might as well prepare for both races. After all, there are only 21 horses in total. How much would it differ from preparing for a full-field race? Now, if you'll excuse me, let me get right to it.

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9:01 p.m. Checking out the results of the barrier draw, Kyoto first.

Inner post drawers are usually advantaged in Kyoto Kinen especially when the pace drops to slow. It's also known as a Deep Impact-friendly race, where Deep Impact descendants perform well. Looking at the barrier draw result, it gives me the imparession that these trends will stay unchanged.

Now, Tokyo. Kyodo Tsushin-hai I'm afraid, is also unlikely to be run at a tight pace. Therefore, the inner post drawers that can secure a good position not too far behind will be advantaged. As the pace probably won't be tight regardless of which horse takes the lead Galilea, Divine Wind, or Lovcen, fast time for the last three furlongs will be crucial.

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8:28 p.m. Oh, dear. I knew Eri King and Redentor would be favored, though I didn't expect the win odds to be this low. What's more, 8-year-old Yoho Lake is the third favored in Kyoto Kien. I guess we all think the same. The names of horses remaining on my "to buy" list are, Redentor, Yoho Lake, Ecoro Dinos, Eri King and Shake Your Heart, but these are the top five favored horses and I wonder if I should buy betting tickets while there are risks for Redentor or Eri King to screw up.

Kyodo Tsushin-hai seem slightly better than Kyoto, despite the field even smaller. The horses remainig on my list are Sanono Greater, Divine Wind, Realize Sirius, and Lovcen.

A bit more thinking might be necessary to decide which race to bet on , which horse to bet on, as well as how I place my money.

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8:36 p.m. True to form, Forever Young has won Saudi Cup two years in a row. It was an awesome win following lasat year's Breeders' Cup. As we all know by now, his next goal is Dubai.

Eventually, I chose Kyodo Tsushin-hai where the horses I'd bet on finished first, third, fifth, sixth (incidentally, Kyoto finished with second, third, fourth, if I'd bought the race) . It makes me wonder how in the world I could buy betting tickets so skillfully avoiding just one horse week after week. I wish someone would tell me.

I don't see any light of hope ahead at the moment, but for tonight I'd like to comfort my heart with Foever Young's spectacular win and Yukima Horishima's acrobatic run in his second round. I'd present him a gold medal just for this run.

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8:50 p.m. While I've been bickering about my losses, the time has already come for this year's first G1, February Stakes before I knew it. So let me start reviewing the race.

It's widely known that Tokyo dirt 1600m gives advantge to horses drawing outer posts, because the course starts with turf and horses starting from outer posts can run on turf longer than inner post drawers. I went on to check the performances of outer post starters as I've always felt suspicious about this commonly accepted notion. It turns out that there were 12 horses starting from outer posts finishing above third place in the past 10 years. To be more objective, the top-3 finish rate for horses starting from barrier six, seven and eight for the past 10 years were barrier six 20%, barrier seven 15.0%, barrier eight 15.0%, respectively, which can't be called significantly high rates. Continarily, barrier four and five both showed the rate 30%, the best percentages of all barriers.

As I'd thought, barriers aren't everything.

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8:49 p.m. Let me look at the starting barriers from a different angle.

The top-3 finish rates of each barriers in te past 10 years show the highest percentage 30% for barriers four and five, while the rates vary from 15 to 21% for barriers two, three, six and seven. The outmost barrier eight still has 15%, though the innermost barrier one shows 0% not only for the top-3 finish rates but also for top-2 and win rates. What I can pick up from these information is that perhaps it's best to start form bariiers in the middle to perform well in February Stakes.

Returning to the past 10 years' results, it proved there were only two times when neither barrier four nor five finished above third place, 2022 when the track condition was wet, and 2018 when the race was run at a considerably tight lap.

As rain is not expected for the rest of the week, it might not be a bad idea to pick the horse to key from barrier four or five.

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8:47 p.m. I've been trying to pick up some clues from the starting barriers, though unfortunately haven't quite found what I've been looking for. Perhaps I should change my approach? Let me go watch the race video for the last couple of years. Maybe that could give me some hints.

What I belatedly realized was that February Stakes is basically a race for trailers and lookers. Considering the mile distance, it won't be strange if front runners performed well but in fact, the high-performers in the past are mostly trailers and lookers. The only two times when runaways made the top-3 in the past 10 years, the race was run at an average pace. This means that unless February Stakes runs at an average pace, it's unlikely for runaways (and front runners) to perform well possibly, because the tight lap would make it harder for them to hang on. As you might already know, February Stakes usually gets into a tight lap when it runs with a full field, thanks to the downhill at the beginning as well as the turf sidetrack.

I guess I got my foot in the door. Will try and see if I could figure out the type of trailers and lookers to choose.

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8:25 p.m. And so I've pondered after some researching, what kind of trailers or lookers might perform well in February Stakes?

The course layout of Tokyo dirt mile consists of long straights, a sweeping bend, with a downhill at the beginning and a short uphill on the homestretch before the finish line. It often encourages the pace to get tight depending on the number of horses running and the line-up after the barrier draw, while the furlong time slightly drops around the enterance of the third corner. As the first half of the race usually speeds off at a tight lap, it gets tough for the front runners to hold out and by the time they climb up the hill, trailers as well as lookers charge down the homestretch to beat their tred rivals.

What's necessary to make this happen I think, is speed, straight-line speed. Therefore, I will weigh heavy the horses that have previously run in a tight-lapped race, recording the fastest final 3 furlongs regardless of the posts they draw. If they've performed well on fast, wet tracks or turf courses, that would be preferrable to back up their speed. Pedigree-wise, having Stom Bird lines, Norther Dancer lines, Bold Ruler lines which strengthens speed in their background will be reassuring, not to mention the Mr. Prospector line known to perform well on dirt courses.

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10:01 p.m. The barriers have been drawn and announced for this season's first G1 February Stakes.

And W Heart Bond draws the middle barrier five!? Isn't that a little too good to be true?

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9:09 p.m. Yet again, desperately struggling with the racing form while fighting sleepiness.

Okay. I know W Heart Bond is a great horse, but what concerns me is that she's a front runner. As I've written earlier, I consider February Stakes as a race for horses coming from behind. Sice W Heart Bond is shortening the distance from Champions' Cup, perhaps she might drop her position during the race, though whether that turns out good or bad is uncertain. That said, you can't simply delete a G1 winner.

The horses currently remaining on my temporal list are Ramjet, W Heart Bond, Lord Couronne, Costa Nova, Wilson Tesoro, and Peptide Nile. In my humble opinion, Costa Nova seems more assuring than W Heart Bond.

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