9:15 p.m. Happy New Year, everyone! hope you're having a nice beginning of the year 2026. What I like about New Year's Day is that the whole town is quiet, wrapped in solemn air to greet the new year.

I didn't get to enjoy much of the peace and quiet, though as I had to design greeting cards. Now? Yes, now, since I've been neglecting. Therefore, I haven't been able to check out Kyoto Kinpai yet. The books I signed out at the library are still piled up. I wonder when I'd get the chance to read them?

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Caterpillar

9:25 p.m. So I've finally finished designing this year's New Year greeting cards. Will have to print them tomorrow. And now, I can move on to Kyoto Kinpai eh?

Oh, god. What's with Corepetiteur, 2024 Kyoto Kinpai champion? Not only has he (well, formerly he) become a gelding, but running in a steeplechase? Ho O Las Cases, a female horse aged eight is entering with only a week's interval after Turquoise Stakes? Chaotic as it usually is, Kyoto Kinpai.

I can't honestly believe Lance of Chaos would win such a race without incedent. Even if he drew an outer post, which probably means much to him.

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Caterpillar

9:09 p.m. There was another incident. The printer didn't work and it took a long time as well as a lot of effort to print out the greeting cards. Thankfully, they're all done now, but I couldn't concentrate on Kiinpai. Will have to ponder some more until tomorrow.

For Nakayama Kinpai, six horses are remaining on my list so far, Keiai Sena, Angola Black, Canela Fina, Meiner Ocean, Sirius Colt, and Licancabur. I'm leaning towards keying Canela Fina.

As for Kyoto Kinpai, Keep Calm, Corepetiteur, Trovatore, Fervent, Gaiamente, Shin Forever, and La Quemada are still remaining. I haven't decided which to key, though Keep Calm or Gaiamente.

Hope you'll all have a good start!

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Caterpillar

8:31 p.m. Miserable losses following last year.

I thought that inner post drawers would be advantaged for Nakayama Kinpai, while outer post drawers will be benefitted at Kyoto. But then, Keiai Sena that I thought would take the lead didn't run away, allowing Kalamatianos from an outer post to go up front. Isn't this exactly how I lost Arima Kinen? Whereas in Kyoto, the pace dropped to an unexpected slow and it became a speed contest. All the outer post drawers performed well, except the ones I'd bought.

I need to refresh. Maybe I should get away from horseracing for a while?

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Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. It was supposed to be my first day back at work this year and my client cancels the meeting that was to be held at the last minute. No, it wasn't even the last minute. I sent several messages until I finally got a reply canceling the meeting because of a New Year party. If the word "customer harassment" really exists, this must be it.

Can't decide which race to bet on this weekend, Fairy Stakes or Yodo Tankyori Stakes. Perhaps Yodo, since it's for older horses? I also want to get te hang of Nakayama dirt 1200m races while they are still being run. I don't have much time left as Tokyo would start from February. Just checked out the racing schedule to unfortunately find only a few dirt 1200m races in upper category. I will have to make the best out of these few chances.

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Caterpillar

9:22 p.m. I haven't yet decided which race to bet on this weekend, and I even might not be bale to buy betting tickets at all depending on th situation. A greeting card from an old friend has been delivered with the news that she is visiting Tokyo this weekend and that she's like to see me if possible.

How come everything seem to happen at once? I have to visit my mom on Monday. Why do I have to go out in the freezing cold while the whole nation is enjoying three consecutive holidays? Why is it always me who has to sacrifice and compromise? Annoying, really.

Well, at least today's client didn't stand me up. There's one good thing. Maybe I could somehow manage to get over the stressful weekend if I count up the tiny, little good things that happen to me?

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Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. On a second thought, maybe Fairy Stakes would be a better choice?

Considering it's a mile race at Nakayama, it may be less difficult to narrow down the candidates compared to Yodo Tankyori Stakes, which has occasionally been run at Chukyo while Kyoto was under renewal. I can easily guess that inner post drawers and front runners will be advantaged in Fairy Stakes, while the pedigree background can also be a big help because it's a 3-year-old filliles' race. Plus, it's a grade race, not a lukewarm listed.

I do need to check out, then enter the ncessary data, but the large part depends on the barrier draw so it won't take up much time until the daw results are announced. Okay, then Fairy Stakes, it is.

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Caterpillar

8:54 p.m. I can move once I make up my mind. The necessary datum have already been entered for Fairy Stakes. Though I'm not sure what's really necessary. I mean, it's hard to tell when you're trying to call a race run by horses that have only raced once or twice.

What hopefully becomes the clue to choosing the right horses are short term stress and damage. It's better to avoid the horses that have been put a strain on them in order to perform well in their previous races, as having made to overwork will leave both physical and mental damage.

Well, I can easily imagine that putting myself in their shoes. What happens the next day after I work myself too hard is a full day good for nothing.

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. Looking at the barrier draw result of Fairy Stakes.

Ghillie's Ball, currently the most favored in expected win odds has drawn an outer post. Epiphania descendants have performed well in slower-lapped races starting from outer posts, because they don't like the push and shove when drawing inner posts while they usually downgraded their performance in tighter-lapped races. My perspective has changed a bit, though seeing Danon Decile's performance over these past two years. Perhpas the Fujikiseki in Ghillie's Ball's broodmare sire line might help shore up Epiphaneia descendants' weak spots. No, I don't think I can cross this horse out with Christophe in the saddle.

Saint Antoine, the second favored looks like a seven-furlonger at first sight, but this horse too, might do well if the pace gets faster than her previous race. And then, Pied du Lapin, the third favored is also another Epiphaneia descendant.

Oh, no. It's harder to narrow down the candidates than I'd thought, much harder.

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Caterpillar

9:09 p.m. To be honest, I don't know what to make of this race as there aren't as many clues I hoped there would be. Five horses have only just ran their maiden race. Who can tell if these horses have the potential to win a grade race or not from the results of their maiden race? I'm afraid I'm pretty much stuck.

With every tricks I could think of, have now come down to six horses, which as usual, are variable. Their names are Pied du Lapin, Towani, Saint Antoine, Mor Nike, Ghillie's Ball, Viscontessa, and Black Chalice.

I will have to think it over, though.

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Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Oh, no. There were only two horses from my list that finished above fifith place, Black Chalice and Saint Antoine.

The finishing time of Fairy Stakes has been getting faster every year since 2022, thanks to the track condition. I was wondering if this trend will go on, but Black Chalice's finishing time was 0.8 seconds slower than last year's. What this seems to point out is that the track condition of Nakayama around this time of year is still fast, though this year's 3-year-old female horses could be beaten by last years'.

There is one thing however, that I learned from this race, whhich was quite difficult to call as you can guess from the hugs payout. Perhaps because of the downhill in the first half of the course, the pace is likely to get tight especially when it's a full-field race with the large part of competitors having short careers just like this time. Even Christophe has a hard time controlling an inexperienced young fillie.

Both of the Epiphaneia descendants were unnecessary, BTW.

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Caterpillar

7:47 p.m. Despite having no work today as it was a holiday, I had to visit my mom. I was reluctant as I knew what might happen and as I had guessed, there was an incident which made me come home as early as possible. I'm sick of family affairs. I feel terrible for wasting my precious day-off to miss Shinzan Kinen.

Just as yesterday's Fiary Stakes, Shinzan Kinen also seemed o have finished with a payout to some extent, especially the trifecta. The finish time 1 min. 33.4 seconds is an outstanding record for 3-year-olds, second fastest in the past ten years following 2021 when Pixie Knight won this race, though the race was held at Chukyo that year.

The stats of Kyoto turf announced by JRA shows how the turf track was dry and hard. That explains the fast finishng record. The last three furlongs seems to be taking slightly more time, which help the front runners to hang in. The inner part of the course still seems to be in relatively good condition preventing the trailers swinging the outside to sweep up to the top. Hopefully, my analysis would help this week.

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Caterpillar

8:52 p.m. It's been almost two weeks since the year has turned to 2026. The irregular racing schedule for the opening of the year is finally over and we're getting back to the normal two-days racing schedule from this week.

Nikkei Shinshun-hai will be held at Kyoto while Keisei-hai will be run at Nakayama. I'm getting traumatized by races limited to 3-year-olds so I welcome Nikkei Shinshun-hai, though it's also true that you can win big if you could only pick the right horse from the 3-year-olds while their strengths are not yet assessed correctly.

Thankfully, both races seems to have a lot of entrees at this point meaning that there's no need to worry for a small-field race. I guess I'll spend the next three days gathering information as well as analyzing both races and then, choose after the barrier draw, whichever race that I think has higher possibility to bring me a win.

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Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. Analyzing Nikkei Shinshun-hai right after I finished a zoom session.

The course layout has a lot of long straights and it's a D'erby-distance race. Nikkei Shinshun-hai don't usually go wild unless something goes wrong as in the year 2020. Pedigree-wise, the major sirelines like Deep Impact, King Kamehameha, Herat's Cry or Epiphaneia seem to perform well, just as they do in Kyoto Dai-shoten.

The position battle normally settles on the first straight with the pace rarely getting tight. Well, it's easy to imagine that Goltzschtal would be favored and, considering the situation, can't be deleted from the list of horses to buy.

Still, the large part of the race depends on the barrier draw like I often say. I'd like to wait until the barrier draw to decide whather to bet on this race or not.

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Caterpillar

8:52 p.m. Another cancel in my work schedule. Never mind as I can spend that time on analyzing Keisei-hai.

As Keisei-hai runs on Nakayama turf 2000m just like Hopeful Stakes, it's basically friendly to inner post drawers and front runners. It would also be better to have a fast record of the last three furlongs. All of the high performers in the past ten years have finished above third place in either their previous race or the one before. Because the horses are still young and fresh, careers reflect potential.

Horses with European background including the Roberto line are doing well. This race demands the horses to climb the Nakayama hill twice, so toughness is required. Perhaps one shouldn't trust horses that have won their previous race impressively on Tokyo 1800m with some gaps. Such kind of horses probaly don't perform well in a race that requires toughness.

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Caterpillar

9:21 p.m. Fighting sleepiness with all my might. I had an appointmnt at the dentist this afternoon where I struggled to stay awake, and now the sleepiness is back. Let me check the racing form with the barriers before I crash out.

Normally, I'd guess the pace to be slow for Keisei-hai, considering the uphill on the homestretch after the start. However, as there seems to be more front runners than I'd expected, it might be better to keep average pace in mind, too. Unfortunaely, though it looks like the inner posts have been occupied by unreliable horses despite their advantage. Yet, I don't think I can trust Solennellement either.

On the other hand, it seems I shouldn't go against Goltzschtal if I'm betting on Nikkei Shinshun-hai. The horse to combine with Goltzschtal, would be the problem.

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Caterpillar

9:05 p.m. Getting sleepy again and my brain is refusing to work. I couldn't even decide which race to bet on between Keisei-hai and Nikkei Shinshun-hai, so I called them both with my sleepy head.

First, Keisei-hai. As usual, calling a race limited to 3-year-olds was a task. I used every trick I knew to narrow down the candidates to six. Here are the names. Black Hayate, Green Energy, Akkan, Tidal Lock, Gene King, and Solennellement. As mentioned earlier, basically I think the inner post drawers have the advantage, so I want to delete Solennellement if I can. Green Energy sould be the horse to key if I were to choose.

Next, Nikkei Shinshun-hai. The horses remaining on my list are Goltzschtal, Family Time, Yamanin Bouclier, Submariner, and Shinig Sword. Submariner and Shinig Sword, though might be gone by tomorrrow. I have a hunch the two 3-year-olds are one step ahead of others.

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Caterpillar

8:09 p.m. I give up. The short-of-one disease is back. Because I couldn't choose one race to call from two, I called both of them, bet on both of them and lost both of them. Moreover, I couldn't win either of the races since one horse has been missing from my ticket in both of the races. What? Is this some kind of a joke? Run after two hares, you'll catch neither?

I was on guard for the Roberto line for Keisei-hai so I bought Tidal Lock and then, the only other horse with Roberto line Matenro Gale defeats him. As for Nikkei Shinshun-hai, I bought Yamanin Bouclier in hopes he'd go up front to keep a good podition by the rail but then, he allows Doctor Dolittle to take the best position.

The Yokoyama family has been snatching away my wins since last year. I don't want to linger on like this. I need to put a stop.

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Caterpillar

8:42 p.m. Have just downloaded, linked up this year's JRA racing calendar with my own and now pepping up myself. Haven't won a race yet since the year has started. It's about time I got started.

Let's take a look at AJCC held this weekend. Okay, so Echt, Chuck Nate, North Bridge, Matenro Leo, the usual members. The 4-year-old enterees are Shohei, Giovanni, and Faust Rasen! Sounds interesting. Whereas Christophe is riding Douradores, with lady King riding Chuck Nate. I see, Isee.

It doesn't look like rain, so I wouldn't have to wory about soft track. I shall assess carefully this time or my new year would never come.

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Caterpillar

8:25 p.m. Let's start from reviewing the requirements of AJCC.

Because there's an uphill on the homestretch shortly after the start (just like Keisei-hai), the pace is unlikely to get tight unless there are certain conditions to cause a tight-lapped race, such as full-field entry, more than half of the entrees racing in shorter distances previously (say, as in mile races), or multiple front runners. As to support my assumption on the pace, AJCC has never been run in a tight pacce in the last 10 years.

The distance, 2200m is not a major distance, which I think is one of the most important features of this race, and whether to be able to find the forgotten Nakayamma specialists in minor distance or not would be the key to winning AJCC.

Douradores may be favored since he's finished second after Regaleira on the same course and distance in All Comer, but he would probably need a middle to outer post to perform well. I should also stay on the alert for the Roberto line as well as Mr. Prospector line, pedigree-wise.

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Caterpillar

8:49 p.m. Checking the expected win odds of AJCC wondering what it's like. The most favored turned out to be Giovanni, which was a bit unexpected. Perhaps his stock rose thanks to Goltzschtal's win last week. Or maybe the fans haven't yet forgotten that Giovanni was the runner-up in Hopeful Stakes behind Croix du Nord and decided he was the Nakayama specialist everyone else has already wiped out of their memories. Well, we'll see in a couple of days if that's true or not. He doesn't particularly appeal to me at the moment apart from his sireline.

The horse that looks most attractive among the 4-year-olds is Faust Rasen. If you can recall how he swept up all the others to win Yayoi-sho (Deep Kinen), there's no doubt he's a Nakayama specialist. Also, he could be the type to perform better in non-major distances, considering his two wins both on good to firm tracks. Additionally, I think it would be better for Faust Rasen to draw an outer post to bring the best out of his racing style.

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Caterpillar

9:00 p.m. The entry has been closed for the weekend and it looks like AJCC will be run with 16 horses this year. Great. There were 18 horses runnning last year, which was the first in a while, so I wished we'd have a full-field race again. 16 is not bad in that sense.

Apart from the fresh 4-year-olds, I shall pay attention to Chuck Nate as well as Matenro. Since these two horses have already proven they the requirements of AJCC, they could perform well in case they drew the posts they did before. AJCC is generally not friendly to repeaters, but still it will be better to stay on alert, I say.

Anyway, let's wait for the barrier draw tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

8:50 p.m. And the barriers are drawn. The horses that caught my attention all drew good posts, respectively. That means I can't delete any of them because of the posts they drew. Not helpful, not helpful at all, grrrr.

I don't think the pace would be tight, but the horses that are likely to go up front drew inner posts, so the horses could spread into lengthwise formation during the race. When the form of the horces become lengthwise, it gets harder for outer post starters to keep up with the speed, let alone take over the horses running ahead of them. Therefore, I'm afraid it won't be easy for Faust Rasen to sweep up to the top unless there's a track bias that advantages horses running the outer part of the course. Same goes for Douradores, though the jockey is more reliable, not to mention.

As the race is going to be run on Course C following last week, we'll just have to wait until tomorrow's races are run to see whether there are any track biases appearing or not.

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Caterpillar

9:35 p.m. It looks like a speed track. Today's Race 5 at Nakayama was a turf 2200m maiden race, though it recorded 3 min. 12.0 seconds, which is quite fast for this category. The reason is probably because we haven't had any rain. The race was run at an average pace that usually gives advantage to front runners and as Nakayama has tight curves, it would have been natural if the front runners sticking to the rail finished 1, 2, 3. In fact, the top three finishers were all trailers, with two of them starting from the outmost barrier.

So I decided I should choose horses that could position themselves on the center to outward, third row from the leading horse when the field heads into the last corner. And here are the horses left on my list so far: Meiner Emperor, Giovannni (I won't be able to forgiva myself if he performed well this time while I already gave up on him), Matenro Leo, Shohei, North Bridge, and Douradores. I'm a bit interested in Nishino Revenant as well as Dee My the Kid, but including them would be too much for me.

Oh, almost forgot to say it. About the track bias. Well, I'd say the outer course is more advantaged, if you ask me.

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Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. Echt! Eeecchhtttt!!!! How could Matenro Leo be beaten by a 9-year-old? What were all the 5, 6 and 8-year-olds doing? And the three geldings! You won't have a future if you son't win, do you know that?

With the pace unexpectedly tight thanks to North Bridge and Echt, this year's AJCC gave advantage to horses that had stamina as well as high aptitude for fast tracks. And didn't I tell myself a hundred times that aged horses perform well on fast tracks?

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Caterpillar

8:46 p.m. Let the past be past as time won't wait. That rings a bell. There was a song called "Time Waits for No One" by Rage.

This week we're having Silkroad Stakes, a sprint step race for Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen in March at Kyoto and Negishi Stakes, a dirt 7-furlong step race for February Stakes at Tokyo. Nakayama races will be gone until March when the step races for the classics begin, too bad.

And again, I'm having a hard time choosing between the two races. Track bias giving advantage to trailers should be appearing on Kyoto turf by now but then, Silkroad Stakes is using the inner course with tight corners, which normally benefits inner post starters and front runners. On the other hand, the level of dirt grade races aren't as high as they used to be thanks to the foreign dirt G1 races.

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Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. On a second thought, maybe I should stick to the one-turn, monotonous dirt race Negishi Stakes as I annually do in the end? All Right, let's review Negishi Stakes, anyhow.

Tokyo dirt 1400m is a rare dirt course that doesn't start with turf grounds. Because the backstretch is long while the course turns downhill from the third to fourth corner, the first half of the race often gets into a tight pace. Yet the pace doesn't drop so drastically in the later half meaning that long-lasting speed is demanded more than inastantaneous speed. Negishi Stakes is a race of power and speed rather than stamina, I reckon. It shifts to the power side when the thrack condition is dry, while speed will be more required when the track gets wet.

The required power and speed seem to explain why Stormbird lines, Bold Ruler lines or Vice Regent lines have been performing well in the past. Many of the high performers also weigh over 500kg, which suggests the use of antifreezing agent, something that's not rare during this cold season.

Finally, there aren't many repeaters in Negishi Stakes as this tough race requires freshness. Kopano Kicking is the only horse I could recall as a repeater in the past ten years.

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Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. Proceeding on with reciewing Negishi Stakes.

Even though this race often runs at a tight lap, it's not easy for trailers starting from outer posts to beat the others. You might have the impression of trailers that drew outer barriers such as seven or eight, charging down the homestraight. But apparently, there seems to be a clear borderline between horse numbers 13, 14 (barrier seven) and horse number 15, 16 (barrier eight).

The trailers that seem to come zapping down the straight are horses starting from barrier seven, while high performers starting from bariier eight are mostly front-runners. Having to bear the course loss as well as the distance loss, I guess horses starting from the outmost barrier need to go up front in order to finish above third place.

Forecasts have been threatening with snowfall on the southern coast of Kanto tomorrow. I might as well keep in mind the usage of antifreezing agent. Let's not forget to check the results of Satuday's dirt races at Tokyo.

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Caterpillar

9:22 p.m. If I am to add anything else to my review, let me say that 4-year-olds are perfoming pretty well. The rate of 4-year-olds finishing above third place in the past 10 years is an astonishing 38.9%, which not to mention is the highest among all ages. Unless the step races aren't what reaises the horse's performance by extending or shortening the distance or there's a risk of damage from the previous race, it shall be better to put insurance on 4-year-olds.

The entry for Negishi Stakes has been closed today and the 4-year-olds that wil be running this year are Danon Figo and Ma Puce. No one is sure if Ma Puce could handle her first dirt race well or not, but if she draws a good post where she wouldn't have to bear the kicked-up dirt, perhaps you should keep her on your wheel. 3kg lighter weight is intriguing. Besides, this year's 4-year-olds are good, remember?

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. All right, so the barriers have been drawn.

Because they drew the outmost post, Saint Honore and Fee Blanche would both go up front, while Wayward Act probably can start faster. If a fierce position battle takes place or one of the front runners loses control to disharmonize, the pace is likely to get tight. Lookers charging down the straight will be advantaged in that case.

But I'll also have to keep in mind of the case where the pace doesn't get tight. I'm pretty sure it won't be slow. The case where there's no position battle and all the horses settle in with an average-ish lap because no one wants to make the first move. Then, the front runners will be advantaged.

Looks like Ma Puce has drawn a nice, outer post by the way.

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Caterpillar

9:03 p.m. I couldn't quite figure out whether antifreezing agent had been used or not from today's Tokyo dirt race results, but it looks like heavier horses perform better as the purse category rises. Well, that is natural, considering that the race becomes more tougher as the category rises.

Have struggled to set the pace for Negishi Stakes, as the front runners drawing the outer posts were mostly from the local stables, not JRA and I wasn't sure if they could take the lead against JRA horses. All my assumptions will easily collapse if these front runners didn't go up front.

Since I couldn't rely on the front runners drawing outer posts, I decided to trust the 4-year-olds. Left on my list now are Wayward Act, Omega Guiness, Matenro Command, Danon Figo, and Ma Puce. I forgot to mention Matenro's name the other day, sorry about that.

I'm still torn between including In Your Palace or not. Yes-ish No, I guess.

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Caterpillar