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11/01  Add a Bit of Mercy

5:39 p.m. I'd expected this, yes. Winning but losing money...

It's great that Almond Eye became the first horse to win 8 G1 titles, she would definitely go down in history and my congrats go to the horse, the crew and Christophe. That he must have been under a huge pressure is easily imagined, especially from his tears.

Still, it doesn't make me feel good when I lose money although I've won. Yes, I knew this might happen because it was a small-field race and the odds of the top favore horse was low. But the 3rd favored Danon Kingly has disappeared and JRA pays only this much? Why can't they add a bit of mercy to celebrate the glorious record Almond Eye has set up? Humph. Disappointed.

The End

Caterpillar

11/02  Not a Good Decision

4:23 p.m. Looking back on Tenno-sho. I'd hoped Daiwa Cagney to take the lead to set the pace at average however, it was Danon Premium who actually took the lead (which was unexpected) to drop it to a slow.

This was not a good decision for 2 reasons. One, because if Danon Premium took the lead, he will become a good target for Almond Eye (and the others) to take over in the last stretch. And the last stretc of Tokyo is looooong, as you all know. Two, Danon Premium cannot beat Almond Eye in a slow pace instantaneous speed contest, judging from the past races like Yasuda Kinen or last year's Tenno-sho. Thus, Danon Premium lost in 4th place against my hope.

It must have been a difficult race for Chrono Genesis who performs better in a tighter pace especially, when she's lagged at the start and couldn't get a good position. Still, the horse has shown its high potential with the 2nd fastest last three furlongs.

The End

Caterpillar

11/03  Enjoying JBC

5:35 p.m. Watching, enjoying JBC races on TV at home. Cannot go down to the tracks or off-track betting as easily as usual this year.

Congrats to Takayuki Yano, who won JBC Sprint on Sabuno Junior. Fabulous riding with a cool head. Too bad for Bulldog Boss, but he's shown his potential. As for Kopano Kicking, I'm sorry but am afraid his time is over now, at least in the sprint range.

JBC Classic will be run from 6:30. Haven't bought betting tickets today, but very interested in who would win. No. Not who would win but rather, who'd come in 3rd.

The End

Caterpillar

11/04  Exactly the Same

2:54 p.m. Well, well, well. JBC Classic has ended up exactly the same way as Tei-oh sho. It's good I didn't buy betting tickets this year, if I had, I'd probably most disappointed (with the odds).

What this result suggests is that there isn't much difference in the hierarchy amongst older dirt horses. Consequently, this year's Champions' Cup will center around the top 3 horses of JBC Classic, with only fresher horses to cut in. Fresher horses, meaning horses that have high potential but have not yet run in a G1 race.

The End

Caterpillar

11/05  Contrail Enters JC

6:05 p.m. There's only one thing to write about today. Contrail has announced to enter Japan Cup.

As you all know already, this means a great match of two defeatless triple crown horses, Contrail versus Daring Tact. What's more is that Almond Eye might enter Japan Cup, too. If Almond Eye enters Japan Cup, it's going to be a dream match though the payout could be low again. If it comes this far, I long for Salios to enter too.

Whether Almond Eye will enter Japan Cup or not is said to be officiallly announced by the end of this week. Let's cross our fingers and wait, along with the result of the Presidential election.

The End

Caterpillar

11/06  Friday Already

3:27 p.m. We've come to Friday already while I've been coping with this and that. It doesn't feel like a Friday, though perhaps becaus we've had a holiday in between.

There's no G1 races this weekend however, Argentine Republic Cup (G2) will be run in Tokyo whereas Miyako Stakes (G3), a step race for Champions' Cup will be run not in Kyoto but in Hanshin this year, due to the Kyoto rennovation. Authority is entered in Argentine Rpublic Cup for the first time since he'd won Aoba-sho before his injury, with names like Satono Lux, Meisho Tengen, Ice Bubble, Sanrei Pocket and You Can Smile.

Chrono Genesis has announced to accept the invitation from Hong Kong, by the way. That means she won't run Japan Cup or Queen Elizabeth Cup.

The End

Caterpillar

11/07  Suffered Anyway

7:54 p.m. It's not a G1, but I suffered anyway. A race is a race, no matter the category.

Will key Sanrei Pocket, in hopes for his sireline Jungle Pocket. Jungle Pocket descendants generally perform well on Tokyo just like their father who'd won the D'erby and Japan Cup.

On the wheel would be Valerio, Satono Lux, R Star (don't think it's going to be the pace he likes, but just for the sake of Nagaoka), and Authority.

The End

Caterpillar

11/08  Not Feeling Right

5:47 p.m. I wasn't quite feeling right with my key horse for Argentine Republic Cup, Sanrei Pocket and late last nigh (or rather early this morning), I'd went over which horse suits the race condition most. I knew it wasn't a race for You Can Smile, though it wasn't a perfect fit for Sanrei Pocket, either. And I came to think, perhaps Sun Appleton suits best. But I wasn't sure if I should change my key.

Since I stayed up late, I overslept as a matter of course. I didn't have much time left to buy betting tickets and, decided I'd skip this race than losing.

My apology goes to those who had believed me to buy betting tickets. Will promise to do my best to win Elizabeth Queen Cup this week.

The End

Caterpillar

11/09  Yet to be Delivered

6:41 p.m. Announcements from the Almond Eye crew has yet to be dellivered, as well as the good news from my realtor. Nothing. Zilch.

Meanwhile, I took a peek at the entry form for Queen Elizabeth Cup to cheer me up a bit, but Lily Pure Heart, the horse that I'd thought might have a chance has already scratched off quietly and nothing else seem to ring my bell. Well, at least not for the moment.

The End

Caterpillar

11/10  A Similar Situation

6:00 p.m. Still no news from ALmond Eye. So I decided to start thinking about Queen Elizabeth Cup run on Hanshin turf, 2200m. Being run on a different course means that my notes from last year won't mean thing, darn.

Come to think of it, though this might provide a smilar condition to the spring Takaraduka Kinen. Perhaps my notes from Takaraduka Kinen might help me, yay. Let's go check it out.

The End

Caterpillar

11/11  Why, Japanese People?

6:47 p.m. Almond Eye crew says announcement for the next race will not be made for at least a week. Why did they mention "by the end of the week" last week, then?

Have srated my preview for Queen Elizabeth Cup. Can't really say much of anything yet before the barrier draw, but there seems to be little options. The point is whether Lucky Lilac, Normcore or Loves Only You could perform well. Otherwise, it might become a wild race.

The End

Caterpillar

11/12  They Must Have Heard

5:17 p.m. They must have heard what I said. Just as I complained about the announcement, the crew announced that Almond Eye is going to enter Japan Cup as her last race this morning.

Okay. Japan Cup is going to be run with great horses this year although it's "Only" Japan Cup. What's wrong with that? Anyway, must focus on Queen Elizabeth Cup for now.

Stupid Cow seems to be unfocused and distracted, too since he's been making small mistakes. Perhaps because he's too excited by the news. Or just simply unfocused as usual.

The End

Caterpillar

11/13  Tired and Sleepy

6:32 p.m. Very tired and sleepy, but the barrier draw for Queen Elizabeth Cup has been announced, so let's take a look.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Shadow Diva
2Something Just
3Lune Rouge
4Soft Fruit
5Ria Amelia
6Normcore
7Rosa Glauca
8Centelleo
9Win Mighty
10Caro Bambina
11Loves Only You
12Win Marilyn
13Salacia
14Satono Garnet
15Uranus Charm
16Miss New York
17Espoir
18Lucky Lilac

Having drawn the outmost post, it's going to be a difficult race for Lucky Lilac, as well as for Espoir. Meanwhile Deep Impact descendants have been split which migh affect the result differently. The ones that drew the outer posts Loves Only You, Salacia, and Satono Garnet might perform better however, the starting post number is not the only factor to decide the result.

Something Just and Win Marilyn drew good posts but Marilyn's rider doesn't seem assuring to me, in my humble opinion.

The End

Caterpillar

11/14  Confused in Chaos

8:23 p.m. Confused. Am totally confused and in chaos. Was going to trust Lucky Lilac but the training squad tells me the horse is not in her usual state... I've worked up my brains too much I can't come up with anything more.

It's usually best not to change your first decision, so I will be persistent and key Lucky Lilac. On the wheel would be Shadow Diva, Lune Rouge, Centelleo, Salacia, and Satono Garnet. Have a hunch it's going to be a Deep Impact festival.

The End

Caterpillar

11/15  Ought to Pay Me

4:39 p.m. Again, I've overslept to get up late. It couldn't be helped since I've been suffering way into morning pondering my call.

It turns out that the threatening remark on Lucky Lilac from the training squad was nothing to worry about. They ought to pay me some to make up for the time and energy I'd spent worrying. It was a perfect win for Lucky Lilac, hah!

If one were to choose a horse to key, it had to be Lucky Lilac as she couldn't have lost against Normcore or Loves Only You. Besides, Hanshin is not her weak course as some people seemed to scream out loud for the past week. Rather, the contrary. She performs well on courses that have an uphill because she is powerful and tough.

The End

Caterpillar

11/16  Enough Time

5:27 p.m. Decided to start preparing for Mile Championship as early as it may be. It should give me enough time to ponder (and suffer).

As you might already know, Mile Championship will be held on Hanshin this year just like Queen Elizabeth Cup had been, due to the rennovation of Kyoto although you might be tired of hearing by now. I am.

The question is, whether ther is any difference between Kyoto mile and Hanshin Mile. Don't think there's a big difference that appears on the surface as the result.

The End

Caterpillar

11/17  Will Promise

7:30 p.m. Have worked hard today and made progress on my preparation. Was so focused that I almost forgot to write this murmur.

Gran Alegria, although she might be favored, seems to have a good chance of performing well. However, I'm suspecting she might be beaten by a 3-year-old him or her who is not to be named.@Will promise to be a good kid and keep working on my preparation, so I can come up with a winning call at weekend.

The End

Caterpillar

11/18  Keep Moving

4:16 p.m. Not feeling very well due to fatigue. I need rest. Though I know rest doesn't come my way with a comfortable bed, I have to keep moving.

Since when did I become so driven? It's time to get out of this hell and change my lifestyle which is what I'm thriving for. A little more, not muh longer I hope, hang on just a little bit longer. I've held out for as long as 18 years, just a couple more months should be nothing.

While I've been struggling with tough life, Lucky Lilac crew have announced she has a plan to enter Arima Kinen, whereas trainer Yahagi announced the next race for Loves Only You would be either Hong Kong Cup or Japan Cup.

Ooops! Breaking news! Chrono Genesis has declined Hong Kong Cup to enter Arima Kinen. Looks like it's going to be a memorable year.

The End

Caterpillar

11/19  Finally Getting Down

5:36 p.m. It's been a busy day going in and out and I'm finally getting down to my computer, huff.

The entry for Mile Championship has been closed and it looks like there has been no changes. Gran Alegria stays the most favored, of course. She'll probaly do well, I know. Though I don't think the race will end up with the top three favored horses as I've mentioned earlier. Have already done the preparations I can before the barrier draw, so all I can do now is just wait and see.

The End

Caterpillar

11/20  Time to Proceed

2:12 p.m. The barriers have been out. Time to proceed on my preparation.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Besten Dank
2Resistencia
3Keiai Nautique
4Gran Alegria
5Meikei Die Hard
6Lauda Sion
7Admire Mars
8Indy Champ
9Katsuji
10Black Moon
11Scarlet Color
12A Will a Way
13Taisei Vision
14Sound Chiara
15Persian Knight
16Vin de Garde
17Salios

An inner post might not be good for Gran Alegria, she's been blessed with environment without being squashed in the field. As I always say, it would be better to go for the outer Deep than the inner Deep (unless the track is soft). The outmost post might do both good and bad to Salios, depending on the pace (possibly) Resistencia sets. If the pace becomes tight, charging up from the outside might work however, if it slackens he will not reach the leading horse. Even before that, there might be other obstacles for this horse.

The End

Caterpillar

11/21  Worked Hard

7:36 p.m. Have worked hard for another day and it looks like things are turning better.

It really depends on the pace. If Resistencia blasts off her speed to take the lead, it would give advantage Salios while Gran Alegria will merit if Resistencia drops it down to an average.

So I decided (as usual) to key Resistencia (Alice Synthesis Thirty) on a wheel of Gran Alegria, Lauda Sion, Scarlet Color, Sound Chiara and Salios. There may be a chance for A Will a Way if the pace becomes tight.

The End

Caterpillar

11/22  Leaving Anger Aside

4:35 p.m. Why, why can't they understand that Resistencia is not that type of horse? I've been saying over and over that the horse won't be able to perform well, if she didn't lead in a tight lap! Leading Mile Championship with a sleepy 34.9 seconds for the first 3 furlongs is equivalent to giving away the win! Gran Alegria, Indy Champ and Scarlet Color must have felt grateful.

Leaving my anger aside, the result has brought me another concern. That this year's 3-year-olds could be unbelievably frail. I've seen it during the summer and the early autumn races however, I've been turning a blind eye to it. I didn't want to admit it because it will ruin my plan which means I'll have to go back to the start again to review and revise it. I've dreaded that since it would increase my already flowing workload.

But Japan Cup is coming up this weekend. It's not the time to flinch, must get to work right away and change the course if need be.

The End

Caterpillar

11/23  Might Give Me a Clue

6:05 p.m. Hmmm. How should I find out whether this year's 3-year-olds are too frail or not? Well, it's not easy to compare different generations because the conditions are different, but looking at the winning time might give me a clue.

So I've picked out the winning time of triple crown winners and compared it with that of this year's triple crown winners, Daring Tact and Contrail and this is what I got.

horse nameOhka-sho/Satsuki-shoOaks/D'erbyShuka-sho/Kikka-sho
Daring Tact1min36.12min24.42min0.6
Contrail2min0.72min24.13min5.5
Almond Eye1min33.12min23.81min58.5
Gentil Donna1min34.62min23.62min0.4
Orfevre2min0.62min28.33min2.8

Orfevre's Satsuki-sho was run on Tokyo instead of Nakayama (due to the 2011 Great Eastern earthquake) and the track conditions weren't always firm, so they can't be compared to be precise as mentioned. Though it made me think that trusting the 3-year-olds blindly could be quite dangerous.

The End

Caterpillar

11/24  Server Trouble

5:22 p.m. Looks like there's been some kind of server trouble and access has been denied. Nothing more could be done except doing something off-line, so here I am forced to write while being unable to gather information. Is there aby topic I can write about without referring to information sources? Japan Cup, yes.

The results of the past 10 years tells us that younger horses relatively perform better than older horses. The only 2 Kikka-sho winners that finished within 3rd place (in the past 10 years) were That's the Plenty and Delta Blues. Oooh, brings back the memories. And although both horses won Kikka-sho, That's the Plenty had lost the race before, Koube Shinbun-hai, whereas Delta Blues had won a lower category race.

What this means is that it's difficult, actually quite difficult for a 3-year-old to finish within 3rd place in Japan Cup, especially when the horse hasn't had a break in his wins. After all, even Symboli Rudolph barely made to 3rd place.

The End

Caterpillar

11/25  The Dream Race

6:39 p.m. Have launched a research on the track condition of Tokyo Race Course. It nagged in my mind when I saw Tokyo Sports Cup last weekend, how Dura Wurde or Rain From Heaven lost speed in the last stretch. It's been said that the inside of the course is pretty damaged for some time but I've been neglecting to check.

The result of my research was that there was a track bias on Tokyo turf. There's been a temporary fence set to cover the damaged turf 6 meters from the inside, and it seems to give advantage to horses taking its course through the center. Horses that take their course either on the inside or outside don't seem to have the boost in the last stretch.

This gives us a clue to what kind of horses we should buy this weekend. Power type horses that can go up front (having enough instantaneous speed is better) drawing a middle to outer barrier could be a good key horse.

The End

Caterpillar

11/26  Track Bias on Tokyo Turf

5:38 p.m. The barrier draw for the dream race Japan Cup has been announced, so let's take a look.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Curren Bouquetd'or
2Almond Eye
3World Premiere
4Kiseki
5Daring Tact
6Contrail
7Mikki Swallow
8Way to Paris
9Taurus Gemini
10Perform a Promise
11Crescendo Love
12Makahiki
13You Can Smile
14Yoshio
15Glory Vase

The big names all seem to have drawn inner posts despite the track bias... Well, the barrier is not all that matters actually, the position in the race is more important when there's a track bias so don't give up hope just yet.

Have been out for a meeting this afternoon and haven't had a good look yet but Makahiki looks like he's drawn a good post. Must get to work right away.

The End

Caterpillar