6:00 p.m. The entry list for Yasuda Kinen is awesome. Great horses are entered led by Almond Eye.
On the list are Admire Mars, Indy Champ, Gran Alegria, Tower of London, Danon Kingly, Danon Premium, Normcore, Mister Melody... G1 winners count up to an awing 10! I'm not sure how many of them would actually make it to the race since there might be horses scratching off, though only 17 horses are entered up until now so there's even room for another.
Almond Eye usually doesn't bring dark horses along but this is going to be a fun race to call.
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Caterpillar
5:50 p.m. I've checked my notes on Yasuda Kinen from last year and noticed a concerning description. Yomiuri Milers' Cup winners haven't finished within 3rd place in Yasuda Kinen for the past 10 years, except for Millenium Bio and Kongo Rikishio.
According to my notes, Yomiuri Milers' Cup winers basically don't do well in Yasuda Kinen, especially when they have been winning grade races in a row, or have performed a dead-heat finish in Yomiuri Milers' since it would leave mental or physical damage. Also, the two horses that performed well in Yasuda Kinen both drew inner posts, while other Yomiuri Milers' winners that drew post numbers far outward (specifically, post number 15 and outer) all sunk below 4th place.
This year's Yomiuri Milers' Cup champion is Indy Champ. Indy Champ has won Yomiuri Milers' Cup easily and he hasn't won grade races consecutively, so he might not have much damage. That means I'll have to wait and see the barrier draw to decide.
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Caterpillar
4:07 p.m. While still fighting the ooze in my bottom right jaw, the more I think the more it seems that Almond Eye is likely to win...
Yes, I know there are talks that her workouts are not on the usual schedule, but first of all Almond Eye has never run races with such a short interval so in that sense, this whole thing is a new challenge for the horse nad her crew. Given that, I think it's rather more natural to have unusual workout schedules.
There are a few horses that might become candidates as runner-up against Almond Eye, though I can't come up with one that might beat her. Oh, and Stormy Sea has scratched off, for your information.
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Caterpillar
3:15 p.m. Horses are scratching off from Yasuda Kinen, just as I'd expected...
Following yesterday's Stormy Sea, Lord Quest and Tower of London has scratched off today. Can't blame them though, since there are 10 G1 horses all gathered in this race, there will be less chances for them to finish within 5th place to win the prize money.
So the number of horses entered has become 14 and who merits from this? Almond Eye.
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Caterpillar
2:39 p.m. 14 horses doesn't have the impact of a full-gate G1, but the barriers have been announced so let's take a look.
Post Number | Horse Name |
1 | Danon Premium |
2 | Danon Kingly |
3 | Normcore |
4 | Kluger |
5 | Almond Eye |
6 | Indy Champ |
7 | Persian Knight |
8 | Keiai Nautique |
9 | Admire Mars |
10 | Mister Melody |
11 | Gran Alegria |
12 | Seiun Kosei |
13 | Vin deGarde |
14 | Danon Smash |
The outer post won't be an advantage for Seiun Kosei or other horses that go up front, as they will be swung around the outside and will be forced on the loss in distance. Also, they might have difficulty in harmonizing. It might have been better for Danon Premium and Danon Kingly, if they'd drawn outer posts though it may not become much of a problem because it's not a full-gate race.
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Caterpillar
7:02 p.m. The weather seems unstable... things might change depending on how much rainfall we'll have in the next 20 hours.
Leaving that aside for a while, I'll key Almond Eye. She ought to pay me back for last year's loss. On the wheel would be Danon Premium, Danon Kingly, Indy Champ, Gran Alegria and Danon Smash, secretly hoping it won't be Danon Kingly or Indy Champ. I could buy trifectas tomorrow depending on the situation.
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Caterpillar
4:55 p.m. Around two in the morning, I was thinking which horse would win if Almond Eye hadn't been entered? Halfway into sleep it hit me that it must be Gran Alegria. After all, the 4-year-olds haven't been performing well until now and if I should mark them up, I'd give better grades to mares.
And so I ditched the idea of buying trifectas and bought exactas with Gran Alegria fixed on the 1st place, along with the trio wheel I'd announced yesterday. The trio payout was far from satisfaction, but winning an exacta saved my feelings a bit.
Still, I regret not buying trifectas now that I remembered Indy Champ could only come in 3rd place, though I'd burried that analysis I made on Monday way too deep in my memory that I couldn't recall it before the race. Stupid me.
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Caterpillar
5:21 p.m. The reason for Almond Eye's loss is nothing but the 2-weeks' interval.
As anyone can see Almond Eye has been performing well with long intervals between races. Because her previous race was 1600m which can't leave much physical damage if run in a medium to slow pace, the slight blunder at the start and the lack of sharpness in the last stretch seem to point to mental damage; stress. Things might have been different if there was a difference in distance from Victoria Mile, since a bit of change is always good for stress. Nevertheless Alomond Eye knocked down Indy Champ to protect 2nd place, which proves how great this horse is.
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Caterpillar
5:33 p.m. Now that Yasuda Kinen is over, the only spring G1 left is Takaraduka Kinen. Hopefully no-spectators race will be finished during summer and the autumn G1 series would be held with spectators. Then, Cow and I could go back to the off-track betting and see Mr. N-jima again.
Takaraduka Kinen is two weeks ahead. I'll try to review my spring results and prepare well while I have some time. Thinking of calling the grade races in between, so I could keep up my senses.
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Caterpillar
5:06 p.m. Thinking about Takaraduka Kinen, I remembred I haven't seen Epoca d'Oro for a while. Takaraduka would be a good enough stage for this horse. If not, this week's G3 Epsom Cup could also be a good starter for a G1 winner to come back to turf from a long blank.
I wondered what Epoca was doing and went on to check his racing plans however, the horse though he's already been back to Fujiwara Stable, seems unprepared for a race. Some people have mentioned he's not good at dealing with the heat, his come back may be still a bit ahead. But the Satsuki-sho winner hasn't run in a race since Osaka-hai 2019!
Perhaps Orfevre descendants take time to grow like Lucky Lilac. Though I personally think horses need to virtually experience and learn in races, otherwise they won't grow.
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Caterpillar
5:23 p.m. I tried to think a bit about Epsom Cup but my brain refuses to function. Burned out, I guess. One thing I know is that Leyenda probably won't win.
Trying to cheer up, I've taken a look at the list of horses likely to enter Takaraduka Kinen and I think I already have the candidates for my call. At least it interests me more than Epsom Cup. Will have to wait for the official entry list and barrier draw to go on a full-fledged analysis, though. Think I'll satisfy myself with reviewing last year's notes. Now that last year's Takaraduka Kinen has come up, I just remembered I 'd done a terrible blunder on that one...
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Caterpillar
2:02 p.m. Started to think that maybe I could ty calling the Mermaid Stakes instead of Epsom Cup. So went to check out the barrier draw but aw...
Mermaid Stakes is known to be a wild race every year and this year doesn't seem to be an exception. I don't even know where to start... Well, the harder the task, the more it gets me interested. This might turn out to be a good idea after all.
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Caterpillar
7:43 p.m. I might have chosen the wrong race... it was more harder, much more harder to call it than I'd imagined what with the step race Pearl Stakes being held in Niigata instead of the annual Kyoto, the unreliable 4-year-olds, and the track condition on top of all.
I half regretted not choosing Epsom Cup though it's too late. So forcing myself, will key Miss Mamma Mia on a wheel of Lune Rouge, Lindy Hop, Air Gene, Liebfraumilch, and Red Anemos. I'd be surprised myself if I win.
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Caterpillar
4:24 p.m. I screwed it. In two meanings.
First, I should have keyed Centelleo instead of Miss Mamma Mia. Second, I should have chosen Epsom Cup to call since I was going to key Daiwa Cagney. Then, I might have won a trio paying out 739,440 yen! I know it's only wishful thinking, but I'm not asking for the trifecta which payed out 4,219,320 yen. I'm a humble person.
The sad reality is I lose another race, gets eaten up my precious time while Cow fumbles with his output on Skype and ditches me in the end saying, "Meh, I quit." though I desperately tried to help as well as cheer him up inspite of my loss. I think I deserve some good, but I'm not asking for much because I'm a humble person.
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Caterpillar
5:04 p.m. The monitor of the computer I'm using at work just broke down as I turned it on, my mother is pushing on to me tasks she doesn't want to do herself, Cow tells me to drop by a drugstore on my way to get him some over-the-counter drugs... Why do they all depend on me while I have only one body and limited time to spare? Okay. Quit the bickering and move on. There are races out there waiting for me to call.
This week there's the Unicorn Stakes, the gateway to success in dirt horse racing. I don't see any horse that stand out as comparable to Le Vent Se Leve or Gold Dream this year, but well, it's a race I should pay attention to considering Champions' Cup.
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Caterpillar
5:26 p.m. The entry list for Unicorn Stakes shows Cafe Pharaoh to be the most favored as of this afternoon. Really?
It's not just because challenging assumptions is one of my favorite passtime. The horse has only run twice, you know. I'd say it again, twice. How could one trust such a horse? Yes, Cafe Pharaoh hasn't lost a race yet, but that doesn't make him an undefeatable reliable horse. True two horses Daring Tact and Contrail has won a double-crown without any loss this year, though that was in a different situation.
Also, Damian Lane hasn't been on his luck lately. I'm not saying he lacks skills, he is a great jockey talented and skilled. It looks as though some pieces are not fitting in the right places.
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Caterpillar
3:56 p.m. The sun is beating down like mid-summer reminding me the Hokkaido sprint season has come. Hakodate Sprint Stakes will be run on the same day as Unicorn Stakes.
Diatonic seems to be favored thanks to the 3rd place in Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen however, Diatonic chooses the barrier. He might not perform well starting from an inner post in a maximum field race unless the track condition softens. I'd rather key Right On Cue. He might even win depending on the barrier and the position in the race.
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Caterpillar
5:16 p.m. The riders' names for horses entered in Takaraduka Kinen are filling up. Christophe on Saturnalia, Mirco on Lucky Lilac, Yuhichi Kitamura on Chrono Genesis, Yuhga Kawada on Blast Onepiece, Damian on Glory Vase, Yutaka on Kiseki, Yuhichi Fukunaga on Wagnerian, are the top 7 favored horses today.
What I'm afraid of though, is that there might be a gap between the odds of the top 3 favored horses and the others. Meaning, if the race ends with the top 3 horses, the payout will be very low... Takaraduka Kinen is still more than a week ahead so there's some time. I hope this gap would become smaller by the race.
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Caterpillar
4:44 p.m. The barrier draw for Unicorn Stakes has been announced and it seems Cafe Pharaoh has drawn the outmost post.
I'd have to say that starting from the outmost post in a maximum field race would be a disadvantage. I'm not sure if Cafe Pharaoh is ready for the race after 4 months of blank, though it looks like this race won't be so easy on him.
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Caterpillar
7:04 p.m. As I couldn't find either an outstanding horse like Le Vent Se Leve or Gold Dream nor a fresh horse like Wide Pharaoh, it became another difficult race to call.
Will key Dieu du Vin. I'm pretty sure about this one. On the wheel would be Lecce Baroque, Satono Rafale, Tagano Beauty, Full Flat, and Kitano Octopus. Cafe Pharaoh, I decided not to trust.
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Caterpillar
5:21 p.m. Cafe Pharaoh... earning himself an easy win by 5 lengths with an additional race record to top it up. I'm sorry, I just didn't know you were such a great horse.
I've done a blunder on Lecce Baroque, seeing that her weight have increased she must have had damage from her previous races. I've also turned a blind eye to the fact that her previous race was 1400m. Such horses don't do well in a mile race unless they had a sprint race experience in their near past. I've been learning that for the past 2 years and it still doesn't seem to stick with me. Sigh.
Kenshinko was completely unmarked, yet this too is one of my current assignment on dirt races. Good performance lasts longer than on turf races, as long as left-over damage is limited to the least or there's none.
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Caterpillar
4:43 p.m. Takaraduka week has come while I've been dawdling. Am I prepared and ready for the last of the spring G1 races? The answer is unfortunately, though expectedly no.
Not only have I been driven by task after task, my bed time has somehow slid 30 minutes later while I've been getting home 30 minutes earlier. Resultingly, I was exhausted and didn't even go jogging yesterday, determined to eliminate fatigue. I've slept 8 and a half hours each on Saturday and Sunday, and although I still felt sleepy when I woke up this morning, I felt a bit better than last week.
Must rethink my current lifestyle to improve it into a less unhealthy level, but well, I think I'm back in a state to be able to call races now.
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Caterpillar
5:24 p.m. Have learned that one cannot recover from long-term sleep deprivation so easily. Not being able to get up in the morning didn't happen today, I've been coping with it for a long time now but it's getting quite serious. Better do something about it but just don't know how.
Whilst fighting trouble after trouble, still life goes on and there will be the annual Teioh-sho held at Ohi tonight. All the dirt big names will be running, Chrysoberyl, Omega Perfume, Le Vint Se Leve, Chuwa Wizzard, Wide Pharaoh, Nonkono Yume, K T Brave and others. It would have been more great if Gold Dream was among them, but you can't wish for everything.
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Caterpillar
5:58 p.m. I apologize for having written a lie although unintentionally. Teioh-sho is going to be run from 8:05 p.m. tonight, not yesterday night.
It just shows how tired or stressed I am, don't you think? I've been making such small misses for years now, I think I need a good rest. I think it will take me months to recover however, my current environment does not allow me the rest I need. Therefore, many more misses will be expected to follow. So please don't believe every word I say. Thank you.
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Caterpillar
4:56 p.m. The barrier draw for Takaraduka Kinen has been released before I knew it.
Post Number | Horse Name |
1 | Tosen Cambina |
2 | Persian Knight |
3 | Glory Vase |
4 | African Gold |
5 | Saturnalia |
6 | Tosen Surya |
7 | Wagnerian |
8 | Red Genial |
9 | Admire Alba |
10 | Meisho Tengen |
11 | Lucky Lilac |
12 | Mozu Bello |
13 | Danburite |
14 | Kiseki |
15 | Stiffelio |
16 | Chrono Genesis |
17 | Cadenas |
18 | Blast Onepiece |
The track condition affected by the weather might do some good but it's virtually a 4 or 5 horse race. Yesterday's Teioh-sho has finished in a low payout, too by the way.
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Caterpillar
7:08 p.m. I don't know how it became this way again, but ai'm sorting out the necessary data for Takaraduka Kinen now. I was going to start things early and actually I did. Though somehow the data I tapped in 2 weeks prior to the race had been wrong, consequently throwing me back into the usual pattern... I wonder why it always end up this way?
Anyway, I'm reviewing the race results of the competitors and realize that there might be a chance for Blast Onepiece, too. Not just because outer posts are doing pretty well, but also he clears the requirements I'd set to perform well in Takaraduka Kinen. Besides, this horse owes me a lot. I haven't forgotten that Meguro Kinen, no not yet. I ought to collect what he's flushed in the sewer.
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Caterpillar
7:41 p.m. I'm afraid I haven't made up my mind yet at this point, I'm sorry. But will write since I've run out of time.
It was quite hard to imagine the track condition what with the weather and race schedule (that the course is not used as it annually is, thanks to the rennovation of Kyoto), though I assume it will be tough even when the pace slackens. Given that, will key Chrono Genesis on a wheel of Saturnalia, Wagnerian, Lucky Lilac, Kiseki and Blast Onepiece. Would like to narrow down a bit as well as decide the orders for trifectas.
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Caterpillar
4:35 p.m. I'm ashamed. I'm ashamed that I'd put Saturnalia on 2nd of my trifecta and I'm also ashamed that the 5-year-olds has performed so poorly, which I haven't been able to forseek.
I'd expected Lucky Lilac might not do well since she'd been performing highly for the past several races, especially when they were mostly top category races. She was suspected of piled-up damage. That's why I didn't key her. But the other 5-year-olds' low performance is beyond dissappointment. What a shame, Wagnerian. What a shame, Glory Vase.
On the other hand, Chrono Genesis has performed well just as I'd thought, thanks to the soft track condition. It was my bad that I lost because I'd bought trifectas in haste instead of exactas. Also, Yutaka has ridden Kiseki super-well. It was brilliant how he harmonized the horse to draw out the best of its potential, just like he did with Air Spinel in Kikka-sho. This is why Yutaka Take is a called a genius.
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Caterpillar
4:44 p.m. Hmmm... what's beautiful is beautiful, no matter how many times I watch the video. Yutaka has ridden Kiseki so beautifully that I can only give a sigh of content and admiration every time I watch the video.
The start wasn't perfect though enough to get the front position if the rider wanted to, which was a sort of success for the horse that almost always have been screwing up the start for the past year. I don't know if Yutaka had this in mind since before the race, but then he doesn't rush Kiseki up front, rather stays behind alone on the outside until the 1st corner. This seemed to have enabled Kiseki to focus on his own race without losing harmony. From the 3rd to 4th corner, the rider and horse pushes up their position to seek for victory. I'm sure there was considerable distance loss especially on that soft track condition, though it turned out to be a good choice having seen all the inner horses sink.
Won't deny that the track condition and tight pace merited both Kiseki and Chrono Genesis however, it cannot be an excuse for Saturnalia, Wagnerian or Blast Onepiece. Lucky Lilac is an exception as she had piled-up damage.
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Caterpillar
5:12 p.m. Because my news feed has induced me to CBC-sho, I've taken a glimpse of the entry form and realized it was going to be held in Hanshin this year, not Chukyo. Why of course, they're renewing Kyoto race course provoking such chain reaction as to hold a sprint race on the well worn tracks of Hanshin.
Hanshin race course has been hit by heavy rain on racing days several times during the spring season, including the yielding Ohka-sho. Although the fence has been set outlinig the inner rail to cover up the most damaged parts, the horses charging on the outside are performing better. This means that currently, a track bias exists on Hanshin turf.
While we're in the midst of the rainy season, it is likely to have another wet weekend and it makes me think Kurino Gaudi might not do well however he's favored after Takamatsu-no Miya Kinen.
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Caterpillar