7/01  The Other Grade Race

5:17 p.m. As for the other grade race held this weekend Radio Nikkei-sho, it will be held at Fukushima as usual though seems difficult to predict which horse might do well especially, because it's a handicapped race.

Looks like horses that go up front do well when the pace slows down, while chances will come to the trailers when it tightens up. Can't make heads nor tails yet though, not before the barrier draw when the weather and track condition is unsettled.

The End

Caterpillar

7/02  Make up my Mind

5:03 p.m. Errmm... It's a difficult choice between Radio NIKKEI-sho and CBC-sho. Which should I call? Perhaps I should give up calling all together? I do have a lot of things to do... I have a daunting family meeting on Sunday followed by a daunting meeting with a tax accountant. Added to the meetings we have the Tokyo Governor's ellection as a matter of fact, not that it changes anything.

Will have to make up my mind within a day or two, it's already Thursday.

The End

Caterpillar

7/03  Older Horses

4:46 p.m. The weather and track condition may raise the hurdle but I think I'll call CBC-sho. Hopefully, the performances of older horses are easier to predict.

Looking at the entry form with the barriers already announced, I can see there are some horses I could exclude. Moreover, I could be regardless of 8 and 9 year-olds. Oh, and 4 year-olds, too.

The End

Caterpillar

7/04  Little Confidence

7:24 p.m. Uuuuggh...I'm literally drained. My choice might have been a big mistake again since I have little confidence in my call for CBC-sho.

Considering the tough track condition, will key Red en Ciel. I'm counting on you, Yuhichi. On the wheel would be Grand Roi, Roquette, Taisei Avenir, Mikki Spirit, and Dimension. I wasn't sure about the Deep Impact descendants on the outer posts, but just couldn't let it pass.

The End

Caterpillar

7/05  Didn't Expect

9:53 p.m. After I finished the daunting two meetings, I checked the results of CBC-sho and it says Love Kampf has finished 1st taking the lead from start to finish...I didn't expect something like this would happen.

The track condition was announced to be soft and the pace seemed to have been fast. In such situation, it's plausible that the horses starting from inner posts running in the front had the advantages. Added to this, Love Kampf had the advantage of carrying weight shich tends to have stronger effect in sprint races, though I admit I left that out. Well, at least Red en Ciel came in 3rd.

The End

Caterpillar

7/06  Mixed Feelings

5:53 p.m. JRA has announced they will start selling betting tickets again at WINS (off-track betting) in limited areas with restrictions and precautions, shortening the opening hours from Saturday, July 11th. Unfotunately, WINS in big cities like Osaka or Tokyo were not included in the list.

It suggests JRA is seeking the chance to get back to normal hopefully, to move on to further steps. I'm not sure if they're trying to start selling betting tickets for autumn G1 races at aoff-track bettings, as they must have learned online betting could be a good enough alternative. Personally, I have mixed feelings about re-opening, not because I'm fearing infections but rather because it can become a burden while I'm juggling more things than I can at once, and this is likely to go on until perhaps next spring or longer...

The End

Caterpillar

7/07  Change My Approach

6:09 p.m. This week there's the notorious Tanabata-sho. Notorious, because it usually becomes a wild race with big payouts.

Unfortunately, I've never won this race before and it's become one of my dreams to win it once before I die. Though after twenty-something years of trial and error, I've never came even close to winning... I definitely need a breakthrough. Perhaps I should change my approach?

The End

Caterpillar

7/08  Great Horse with Great Speed

4:05 p.m. Japan is hit by the rain front with Kyushu bearing the brunt. My sympathy goes to those who have become victims of the disaster. Can't imagine how much pain they are suffering in this situation while still fighting the fear and anxiety of corona virus.

Even in such times, there will be a race run at Ohi tonight, Japan Dirt Derby. Cafe Pharaoh, who has just won Unicorn Stakes with outstanding performance is going to run. Of course he's the most favored, but it might cheer you up to see a great horse win with great speed. The barriers open at 8:05.

The End

Caterpillar

7/09  The Other One

4:28 p.m. The winner was Pharaoh, only the other one. I thought Cafe Pharaoh would steel an easy win assuming from his previous performance in Unicorn Stakes however, Cafe Pharaoh had sunk in 7th place. The winner instead turned out to be the other American Pharaoh descendant in the race, Danon Pharaoh.

What this suggests is that American Pharaoh descendants drop their performances after their best performance especially, when they have piled up damage after winning consecutive races. It could be said that they're close to Gold Alure descendants in that sense perhaps? Anyway, it gave me a clue to how I should handle the tripple crown winner descendants.

The End

Caterpillar

7/10  Now I Realize

6:17 p.m. The barriers for this weekend's races have been announced including Tanabata-sho.

Crescendo Love, last year's runner-up drew post number 3 shich seems good considering his petigree. Last year he started from an outer post to finish 2nd, though I think an inner post would be easier to focus on the race. Post number 6 might not be good for Jinambo though he's the 2nd favored at this point. It wasn't a bad draw for Bravas starting from post number 13 however, cannot trust him completely as he's a 4-year-old.

And now I realize that Procyon Stakes might have been a better choice to call.

The End

Caterpillar

7/11  Make Do With

8:13 p.m. There's been some unexpected work related to Microsoft Office add-in which has eaten up my precious time. I had to make do with what little time I had left, so don't blame me if I'm far off the mark.

For Tanabata-sho, I'll key Crescendo Love hoping that the track condition remains soft until tomorrow. On the wheel would be Win Exceed, Passing Through, Air Windsor, Outliers, and Lune Rouge. Our work-out squad seems to be against me, though.

The End

Caterpillar

7/12  Won't Come True Easily

4:11 p.m. I was right about the mischoice in races.

Procyon Stakes finished with Sunrise Nova (my key) winning, followed by Air Spinel and Yamanin Imprime, both horses I've been marking with the payout amounting to 140,380 yen even for the trio...

Although not as much as Procyon Stakes, Tanabata-sho's trio payed out 19,850 yen. My key Crescendo Love won the race, but there were 3 horses that got in my way, Bravas, Vin Quet Domingo and Hindu Times. My dream of winning the Tanabata-sho won't come true that easily.

The End

Caterpillar

7/13  Difficult Decision

5:50 p.m. Reviewing Tanabata-sho, I've found another mistake. I had set the pace to be high while in fact it was slow. That's why Bravas, Vin Quet Domingo and Hindu Times did well, I see. Had the pace been more tight, perhaps Win Exceed and Passing Through might have done better.

This week I'll have to make another difficult decision between Hakodate Kinen and Chukyo Kinen which will be run on Hanshin tracks due to the rennovation of Kyoto...

The End

Caterpillar

7/14  Record High

6:00 p.m. The summer selection sale is at its prime and we're hearing news that Deep Impact's colt was sold for a record high 510 million dollars. Where there's money, there are tons of 'em.

Had I been the one with the money, I'd price out 510 million to 300 million and donate the 200 million that's left over to the medical facilities that are struggling under the corona pandemic and the victims of the latest torrential rain disaster in Kyushu, Nagano and Gifu.

Come to think of it, I wouldn't buy a Deep Impact colt in the first place, even if I had the money.

The End

Caterpillar

7/15  Chukyo Kinen Better?

5:05 p.m. On the online game Black Desert which Cow plays, penguins seem to be on sale today and Cow seems happy. That is apart from the complaint that the governor hasn't sent the support money for closing yet, due to COVID-19 Stay Home campaign.

I'm juggling things as always, torn between chosing one race to call from Hakodate Kinen and Chukyo Kinen, preparing articles for a new blog, gathering information for COVID-19, dementia, etc. and searching for a tv recorder in my spare time. I need to contact my friend living overseas about a concert ticket refund too, and I also want to practice my touch typing. I've learned to touch type during the stay home period, though I haven't been staying home.

Perhaps Chukyo Kinen might be better considering it's a Hanshin mile race?

The End

Caterpillar

7/16  The Most Important Task

5:35 p.m. The number of infections are increasing in and around Tokyo. My life stays the same as there isn't much I could do besides what I've been doing all along. Will just have to be careful to stay away from risks, cross my fingers and hope that a good medicine to cure COVID-19 will come through soon.

Things to do are piling up as usual but I haven't even finished up my review for Tanabata-sho... Yet time ticks away regardless of what I feel or think, so will have to move on. Let's start from click-buying my new HDD recorder. That should be my most important task as there's no mistake this item will help me go to sleep earlier than now.

The End

Caterpillar

7/17  Who da ya Think?

6:55 p.m. After all the pondering, I've decided to call Haklodate Kinen instead of Chukyo Kinen. For me it's important that the race has enough data from the past. I do have data for Hanshin mile though they are from races like Hanshin JF or Arlington Cup or Tulip-sho which are all run under different cicumstance or season. I didn't want to make the same mistake of CBC-sho again.

So here I am starting off with the researching and the analyzing of Hakodate Kinen belatedly, while some happy-go-lucky old guy drops by to give me an advance warning he'd bring in a "winning method" tomorrow for me to type and hard-print. Humph. Who da ya think you're talking to, old man?

The End

Caterpillar

7/18  Lame Selection

7:14 p.m. So eventually, I ended up calling Hakodate Kinen which turned out to be consisiting of quite a lame selection of competitors...

Anyway, will key Best Approach. I'm not all game for the young rider however, it's the horse that runs the race actually, not the rider. On the wheel would be Leyenda, Caudillo, Red Scion, and Precious Blue. Don't know what to make of Go for the Summit though it won't be that easy, I reckon.

The End

Caterpillar

7/19  A Wild Day

7:25 p.m. I must have been very, very tired. It was past 2 p.m. when I woke up. I did all my washings in a hurry but couldn't make it to watch the race. That's what happens when you oversleep.

I checked out the results to see today had been a wild day, no to mention, I haven't even been close. I tried to pick up at least a clue to why I lost, though there wasn't much I could figure out from the results. All I can say now is that maybe this year's Hakodate Kinen might have been a low level race and that it was a competition among low performances. Or perhaps the track condition turned out to be much tougher than I'd imagined. The result wouldn't make sense otherwise.

The End

Caterpillar

7/20  BINGO

4:55 p.m. I might have grabbed a clue to Hakodate Kinen.

My guess that the turf condition was tougher than I'd thought could have been right, judging from the results of Saturday's races at Hakodate. The time gap between the front half and the last half shows that the horses dropped their speed obviously, meaning that they were consumed and tired. Also, the horses that performed well all have blood background of power and stamina. Will have to check more closely, but I think I've got the BINGO.

Not that it matters when Sapporo will be starting this week instead of Hakodate...

The End

Caterpillar

7/21  The Only 1000m Grade Race

7:23 p.m. Niigata is starting from this week with the opening grade race Ibis Summer Dash, the only 1000m grade race in Japan without corners.

Lion Boss, last year's champion is being favored as of today however, Bel Canto is the only horse that has won this race two years in a row. Love Kampf also seems to be favored possibly because she's won CBC-sho, a grade race win in a while. Though it all depends on the barrier draw actually, since this course gives a huge advantage to horses starting from outer barriers. Let's wait and see who draw the lucky post.

The End

Caterpillar

7/22  The Trend

6:55 p.m. I came across a link saying something like, "watch the trend of Ibis Summer Dash unfold before your eyes from the results of the past five years" so I stepped on it to discover it was a video not an article, possibly leading you to register an account... That's not my style, sorry.

Will figure out the trend of the past 10 years on my own, thank you. There are no races held in Kansai area this week, so will have to stick to Ibis Summer Dash as it's the only grade race held this weekend.

The End

Caterpillar

7/23  Key Race to be Idaten Stakes

6:16 p.m. Since today was a national holiday, I've been diligently at work analyzing the past 10 years' results of Ibis Summer Dash.

It seems like Idaten Stakes would be the key. Horses that ran Idaten Stakes previously have been doing well in the recent years. In fact, they'd been doing well since Idaten Stakes has started in 2014, though the fact was camoflaged because there were few horses that entered Ibis Summer Dash directly without running another race. You need to pick up the right horse though, as some horses have sunk.

I have a vague idea at this point which needs to be strengthened. I'm having another off tomorrow but will have to start working today as I have another family meeting coming up and can't spare so much time.

The End

Caterpillar

7/24  Forgive My Brains

9:45 p.m. I think Lion Boss has drawn a good barrier...

Forgive my brains for not functioning any longer to dig into further analysis. My whole day have been consumed by family meeting and a skype meeting with Cow and my next consecutive days off will be three weeks ahead... Hey, I tried.

The End

Caterpillar

7/25  Catching Up

4:16 p.m. Okay, I've done my best to catch up with my work as well as calling Ibis Summer Dash.

Have decided to key Jo Kana Chan instead of Lion Boss. Lion Boss drew a good post and I wouldn't be surprised if he win 2 times in a row. But his previous win got me a bit worried so he will be on the wheel together with Kappatsuhatchi, Ayutsuri Oyaji Gold Queen, and Meisho Kazuhime.

The End

Caterpillar

7/26  No Sweetfish Caught

5:18 p.m. I was close, weren't I? Should have bought exactas...

I guessed the pace would become tight which turned out to be right however, mischoiced Ayutsuri Oyaji for Believer. Resultingly, no sweetfish has been caught. The old man went home empty-handed.

My diligent analysis didn't go to waste though, since now I got the data I needed. Can't wait till next year's Ibis Sumkmer Dash.

The End

Caterpillar

7/27  Races on Different Tracks

5:34 p.m. This week we're having Queen Stakes in Sapporo.

Calling races held on different tracks every week is troublesome and I don't like it because I need to check the track condition every time. Besides, it's very confusing to check and double-check everything while there are so many factors that effect each race. That's one of the reasons I forget to set the pace or mischoose the horses. I'd like to use this opportunity to make an excuse that it's not just my carelessness.

The End

Caterpillar

7/28  Can't Trust Blindlys

6:23 p.m. Annually, Queen Stakes does not become a full-field race. At least, it hasn't been for the past 10 years but it might change this year, since 18 horses are entered as of this afternoon. The race trend might change accordingly, in case no horse scratches off.

The past results show younger horses performing better especially, 3-year-olds though there are no 3-year-olds entered this year. That means the next youngest 4-year-olds have the advantage, the generation which I personally can't trust blindly. How many times have I been disappointed by this generation since last autumn?

The End

Caterpillar

7/29  Breaking News

5:20 p.m. Some breaking news. Makahiki's racing plan has been announced with his next race to be Sapporo Kinen. The rider will be Iwata Sr. Meanwhile, Ayutsuri Oyaji finishing 12th place in Ibis Summer Dash has entered Cluster Cup (Morioka), an integrated dirt grade race held on August 10th. Hope he catches sweetfish this time.

And while I've been dealing with my tasks one at a time, the expected win odds for Queen Stakes seems to be shared evenly by Fairy Polka (Fukushima Hinba Stakes winner), Scarlet Clolor (last year's Queen Stakes runner-up), and Contra Check (Turquoise Stakes winner).

I've briefly checked the recent races on Sapporo tracks. Looks like the turf is quite firm and fast.

The End

Caterpillar

7/30  Jaw Dropped

4:17 p.m. Queen Stakes has come down to 14 horses. Not sure which horses scratched off but well, looks like it settled into the usual position.

Now that the entry has been closed, I pulled out my notes from last year's Queen Stakes and my jaw dropped. The text file showed only 5 lines which were not even full sentences...

I'm not sure how much I can rely on this short note, but it should be pointing in the right direction hopefully, that is.

The End

Caterpillar

7/31  All in Account

6:23 p.m. The barrier draw for Queen Stakes have been announced.

It might have been better for Beach Samba or Liebfraumilch to draw inner posts and Scarlet Color might do better starting from an outer post. Inner posts would have the advantage generally on fast, firm tracks especially when ths pace is slow. Taking all in account, it looks like Fairy Polka has drawn the best position. Whether she performs well or not now depends largely on her condition.

The End

Caterpillar