6:57 p.m. We're having Niigata Kinen this weekend which reminds me that the summer races will soon be over, although hot days still go on for another month or so.

I've always thought that Niigata Kinen would give advantage to the youngest, most fresh horse as you can see from the results of the past couple of years. However, this year I have a hunch it won't finish that easily. The youngest, seemingly most fresh horse entering this year is Wakea. He might become the most favored in win odds, but I feel reluctant to put full trust in this horse at least, not at the moment.

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Caterpillar

5:00 p.m. As I was wondering what to write today, Cow suggested writing about the post-Abe prime minister race replacing the candidates with famous race horses. I asked him to give an example and he says I should replace Ishiba with old Pelusa...

How dare you. Pelusa was a good horse.

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Caterpillar

5:10 p.m. The entry for Niigata Kinen has been closed and it seems it's going to be a full-field race. Still, it dosen't look like the pace is going to be tight.

Looking at the past 10 years' results, there hasn't been a year that went in high pace even in a full-field race. Niigata 2000m don't usually become high-lapped considering the course layout, as there's no need to get a good position at the beginning of the race. Plus, the track seemingly won't be soft.

Given that, the requirements don't exactly meet the conditions Wakea to perform highly. Wakea has performed well on tough turf condition, which backs up the fact he is a Hearts' Cry descendant who performs better in a race that requires power and stamina, rather than quick-footed speed.

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4:18 p.m. The barrier draw for Niigata Kinen has been announced. Hmm... There isn't any horse in particular that stands out as drawing a good post. Well, if I have to pick out one, it may be Cadenas.

Since Cadenas is a Deep Impact descendant, it would be better for the horse to draw an outer post in oeder not to have to hit the brakes when the race speeds up at the end. A wide spacious course like Niigata might also be good for him, assuming from his broodmare sire. However, Cadenas is carrying the top weight of 58kg for the first time in his life. This could become a burden if/when the pace slackens and anaerobic match is required for the last 200m before the finish.

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8:00 p.m. It's become a ritual every weekend, but I am drained... Have had extended work while answering to messages coming in non-stop.

In the end, went once around and came back to the start settling for Wakea as my key. I'd rather jump off the cliff with a fresh 3-year-old than an untrustworthy 4-year-old. Onthe wheel would be Ice Bubble, Peace One Pradis, Ice Storm, Gold Gear, and Cadenas. Ice Bubble or Ice Storm would be nice in this heat.

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Caterpillar

5:36 p.m. Another epic fail... not even a horse I bought finished within 5th place, not to mention the 3rd place.

I thought the turf condition was tough and needs power and stamina, just as it was in Sapporo or Hakodate. The winning records for the past couple of weeks showed it took more time than I'd expected of the ususal firm and fast track of Niigata. That's why I keyed Wakea, a Hearts' Cry descendant that performs best when the last 3 furlongs take more than 35 seconds.

And then, Bravas wins Niigata Kinen wrapping up the last 3 furlongs in a flashy 32.6 seconds... The pace was slow, but that's not the only reason. The truth is that the turf wasn't time-consuming at all, rather the opposite.

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Caterpillar

5:01 p.m. JRA has announced thr re-opening of WINS (off-track betting) with restrictions from Saturday, 12th September. About time.

According to the announcement, Park WINS in Tokyo Race Course, Kyoto Race Course, Hanshin Race Course and WINS nation-wide are re-opening, though the opening hours are shortened to 2:00 p.m. Also, they will not display race videos, odds information and will not payout betting tickets for tickets sold on the same day, in order to avoid the "3Cs". For your information, &qout;3Cs" stand for 1) Closed spaces with poor ventilation, 2) Crowded places with many people nearby, and 3) Close-contact setting such as close-range conversations.

Hopefully, we'll be able to get together again at WINS for the autumn G1 series.

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Caterpillar

6:36 p.m. Another troubling week of choosing races...

Thanks to the renovation of Kyoto Race Course, Centaur Stakes which is annually held at Hanshin Race Course is going to be held at Chukyo. This means the race results may change drastically, due to the course layout and track condition regardless of the distance.

There is another grade race this weekend on Nakayama, Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap however, I've been avoiding the race since calling this race is like drawing the straws. Besides, I don't have any notes for Keisei-hai because I've been avoiding it. Well, that leaves only one answer....

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5:16 p.m. Whether to call Centaur Stakes run on Chukyo or instantaneous speed contest Kesei-hai is a problem, at least for me it is.

In the meantime, last year's Sprinters' Stakes champion Tower of London has been announced to scratch off from this year's Sprinters' Stakes. His hooves' condition doesn't seem to be improving, according to the announcement. So that was the reason for the horse's poor performance after he won the G1.

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5:46 p.m. Still undecided... but tilting towards Centaur Stakes. Must check the weather for the weekend, though. That might help deciding a bit.

I've been down on my luck today, having been waited at the clinic for an hour despite my appointment, falling on my stomach at a road-side construction site scraping all over and breaking my glasses. Wonder what the security guy was for, standing there just watching until I barely got up on my own. Then, he asks me if I'm okay. Yes, as I was able to get up without his help, but felt terrible.

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Caterpillar

6:19 p.m. The barrier draw for this weekend's races have been announced, and I'm feeling like Keisei-hai Autumn Handicap was the better choice...

Having seen Luftstrom draw an inner post made me think he's the one to key. However, I've already started preparing for Centaur Stakes. If I were a competent businessman with an MBA, I would decide to pull out before the wound gets bigger and take the course I think is better. But I'm not, and my motto is to put in all I can in whatever I'm facing. So I'm sticking to Centaur Stakes, win or lose.

Have just checked out the weather of Chukyo Race Course for this weekend. Looks like it won't be affected by the tropical depression approaching the Kanto area.

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. Again, very tired as usual... I'm suspecting there might be some health problem behind this exhaustion, really.

I will key Bien Fait for Centaur Stakes. To be honest, I don't have confidence. There was no 1200m race today in Chukyo, and although the track condition has been announced toahave improved from soft to good, I don't have a clue to what it's actually like. The only thing I know is that unless the pace falls on a precisely average lap, instantaneous speed is a must. Therefore, I'm counting on Bien Fait.

On the wheel would be Loving Answer, Mister Melody, Shivaji, and Danon Smash.

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Caterpillar

4:16 p.m. I can forgive a 3rd plasce though aiming for 1st place. But not 5th place aiming for 3rd, Bien Faint...

First of all, I don't see the point in reserving in the 2nd or 3rd position when the horse has performed well taking the lead. And then, he gets taken over with only 50 more meters to go. I didn't ask for him to win. I lowered the goal for him to finish within 3rd. And he loses in 5th place. Whilst all the 3-year-olds that have run this race before has finished within 3rd place.

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Caterpillar

5:33 p.m. Looking at yesterday's Centaur Stakes' results. I've made a note that "judging the pace right would be the key" and I've obviously misjudged. I thought it wouldn't be this fast, but the lap became quite tight. Consequently, horses that wen t up front all sank including Bien Fait.

Step races for the autumn G1 has already begun and this week we're having Rose Stakes for the fillies, and Centlight Kinen for the male 3-year-olds. This week I don't have to be torn between two races, though as my mind is set on Centlight Kinen.

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5:29 p.m. Fighting terrible sleepiness since I had to get up earlier than usual to go to the dentist. Halfway through my treatment and I've become an expert in brushing my teeth.

Assumingly, Satono Flag would be the most favored in Centlight Kinen followed by Galore Creek. Satono Flag has already won a 2000m G2 on Nakayama turf so there's no wonder. However, he's a Deep Impact descendant meaning, that it would be difficult for the horse to come back with a win after he'd lost big two races in a row.

As for Galore Creek, he doesn't seem to do well after a break over 3 months. It would be better to keep him for the next. Although both horses are fresh back from summer recess, that's why my interest is on a different horse.

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Caterpillar

5:41 p.m. Although I didn't win Centaur Stakes, it made me feel good watching the interview of Kosei Miura after the race. He's won the step race and I thought he would ride Danon Smash in Sprinters' Stakes, too. Miura has been let down with Danon Smash this spring, when he was announced to ride Danon Smash in Takamatsu-no-miya Kinen but replaced by the former rider Yuga Kawada, since all races at Dubai was cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic. I though that this time Miura has won himself the chance to ride. And then, this.

It's been announced today that Danon Smash will enter Sprinters' Stakes with Kawada as the rider. This is so unfair. I don't know what is going on behind the scenes, but I just couldn't let this pass. Miura has won the G2 step for Sprinters' Stakes. Kawada hasn't even ridden Danon Smash since he last won with the horse in Fuji Ocean Stakes G3 this March.

Doing things like this, someday whoever decided this would get his/her ass kicked.

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Caterpillar

5:28 p.m. There was an error in what I've written yesterday, so I will apologize and correct it. Kawada had ridden Danon Smash once after Fuji Ocean Stakes. He'd ridden in Takamatsu-no-miya Kinen. But he's lost in 10th place so the part I said he hasn't won is correct.

Looks like Centlight Kinen is going to be a small-field race. The barrier draw and track condition might affect the pace, too. Depending on these factors, my horse of interest might do well. Crossing fingers till the barrier draw.

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Caterpillar

5:51 p.m. The barrier draw for Rose Stakes, a trial for Shuka-sho has been announced, though Centlight Kinen's draw are yet to be announced. Centlight Kinen will be run on Monday, 21st so the draw will not be announced yet.

Scanning the racing form of Rose Stakes, feeling dubious about the three Hearts' Cry descendants especially Woman's Heart and Cravache d'Or. I've been deceived by both of them just like I've been deceived by Wakea in Niigata Kinen. Don't feel like trusting them. Perhaps Line Of Dance might have a better chance in the three.

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Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. As previously said, Centlight Kinen will be run on Monday, so I'll call the race tomorrow. Today, I'd like to make a wild guess on Rose Stakes running tomorrow.

Looking at the results of today's main race at Chukyo Cepheus Stakes, run on the same course and distance as Rose Stakes, I can see that the track seems to give advantage to the lookers, rather than the front runners. Judging from the fact that Tricolor Blue and Fratz finished 1st and 2nd despite their weight handicap, it seems chances are better for horses that boost their engines on the homestretch from the outside. Even in an average pace, which usually tends to merit the front runners.

Therefore, I think things might work well for horses like Des Ailes, Musica, Lily Pure Heart, or even Ria Amelia, though I wouldn't push Ria Amelia in usual situations. It could become a Deep Impact descendant festival.

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Caterpillar

6:42 p.m. Sorry for being late again... and again. It's been a day-off and I'd been sleeping late, real late like way into the afternoon.

So, my call for Centlight Kinen. I will key Babbitt, my horse of interest. If he goes down, I'll go down with him. I think the given conditions will suit this horse who would probably take the lead. It's a matter of his potential and left-over damage whether or not he finishes within 3rd place.

On the wheel would be Reinheit, Figlio Allegro, Galore Creek, Satono Flag, and Valcos. Rose Stakes finished in a Deep festival, by the way.

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Caterpillar

4:33 p.m. Babbitt has taken the lead from wire to wire in Centlight Kinen, followed by Satono Flag and Galore Creek. Should have bought trifectas on this one but well, let's not complain since I've won.

Watching the race, I thought the pace could be slow. However, when Kokorono Todai marking Babbitt started to lag, I realized it wasn't that slow. It was a great performance for Babbitt to put a lid on the charging Satono Flag and Galore Creek, as both horses had done well against their generation's top horses this spring.

According to the JRA calendar, Kikka-sho will be held on Kyoto tracks although Queen Elizabeth Cup will not. So the pace and the track condition would be the key for Babbitt to perform well in Kikka-sho. Don't know if he'll be able to beat Contrail since that horse is a high wall to conquer, but I see now there is a chance.

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Caterpillar

4:46 p.m. As I've won Centlight Kinen, I'd like to keep my good luck and win All Comer coming up this weekend, too. After all, the two races are like one set to me, because they are both run on the same course, in the same distance, on consecutive race days.

Have briefly checked out the entrees to find out that there were only 10 horses... Another small-field race. Well, that couldn't be helped, thanks to Fierement and the rare distance, 2200m. Fierement would be the most favored, as a matter of fact his present expected win odds is showing 1.1. Though my mind's already decided to bet against his winning, so that doesn't matter. Rather, I hope he stays favored.

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Caterpillar

6:36 p.m. Hypothetically speaking, it would be a horse that could perform well on Nakayama and go up front, if Fierement is not going to win.

In the three cases Fierement has lost (except the Arc), the horses that beat him were all positioned in better position during each race. Fierement's outstanding spontaneous spead is not to mention, but if he stays way too behind on a course like Nakayama, it would be difficult to win especially, when the pace is slow. Guess I don't need to remind you the example of AJCC 2019, the race Sciacchetra has won with a blazing boost.

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Caterpillar

4:59 p.m. Just as I've written about the possibility of Fierement losing, he scratches off from the race due to fever, humph. And now that Fierement has gone, who would take over his favority? It's going to be an uninteresting race...

Disappointed as I was, went to check out the competitors once again to see if there were any horses that could take Fierement's place instead, knowing that chances are very small considering the number of horses entered.

Ah, Curren Bouquet d'Or. The pace won't become fast assumingly, so Curren Bouquet d'Or is likely to do well if she draws an inner post. Sigh.

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Caterpillar

6:29 p.m. The barrier draw for both Kobe Shinbun-hai and All Comer has been announced. Contrail's expected win odds stays the same in a full-field trial race, on a small circle course like Chukyo.

As for All Comer, Curren Bouquet d'Or has drawn an outer post however, I'm not sure how that would affect her performance in a 9-horse race. The more concerning fact is that 7 out of all 9 horses are coming back from a long break over 3 months (the longest being 23 months!), with 1 out of the remaining 2 horses has won its previous race after a 6-and-a-half-month's break...

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Caterpillar

7:57 p.m. Have mostly lost interest in All Comer since Fierement has scratched off, but I'll call the race anyway.

I'll key Generale Uno, as it's against my will to key Curren Bouquet d'Or. The training squad says he's not ready yet, though if Kosei coult guide him to take the lead, he might have a chance. Looking back, Babbitt has hit the wire from wire only last week. On the wheel would be Crescendo Love, Mikki Swallow and Curren Bouquet d'Or.

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Caterpillar

4:43 p.m. Generale Uno has sunk in 7th place although Kosei Miura took the lead. The reason is clear. It's because Kosei dropped the pace to a super-slow. Dropping the pace means to give advantages to the horses with instantaneous speed or carrying lighter weight especially, on a soft track. Thus, the loss. If Kosei had taken his chance to make it a high pace, stamina-consuming race, things could have been different but I don't blame him since the horse was just coming back from tendonitis. The rider couldn't stand-play selfishly.

Meanwhile, Kobe Shinbun-hai has crushed my heart. Contrail winning so easily, not even without a push let alone a whip, only suggests his winnig the triple crown without a loss. I wonder what his win odds would be like at Kikka-sho, 1.0?

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Caterpillar

6:49 p.m. I wanted to review All Comer and Kobe Shinbun-hai, and hopefully, write a thing or two about the coming up Sprinters' Stakes.

But stupid Cow has been increasing my workload, forcing me to help him set up his new smartphone. My wifi router returning error after error refusing to be accessed has also been contributing to this workload. And my mailer suddenly refuses to fetch mail from the server, all in one time. Topping up is Cow stopping me every few seconds to make sure he's doing things right.

He's been struggling with the sim card not fitting on the sim tray for some time. I just told him maybe he should break off the white edge around the sim in order to fit it on the tray. He looks happy. Sigh.

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Caterpillar

6:40 p.m. Looking at my notes of last year's Sprinters' Stakes, re-living how I was such a fool blinded by the light weight to key Diendre.

According to my notes, the rate of the most favored horse winning is 40% while the rate of it finishing within 3rd place is 50% for the past 10 years. Though that must have changed a bit since Danon Smash, the most favored last year has finished 3rd. Additionally, there were only 2 horses running Yasuda Kinen in their previous races to finish within 3rd plasce in Sprinters' Stakes for the past 10 years, with both of them not winning Yasuda Kinen.

My notes seem to point out that Gran Alegria, although she might be favored is not safe enough to key.

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Caterpillar

7:06 p.m. JRA has finally announced that they would let spectators in to see races with restrictions.

Today, JRA has announced they would let spectators in to see races from 10th October for races held at Tokyo, Kyoto and Niigata race courses. Although spectators will be limited to those who bought reserved seats through JRA official webiste, fans will be able to see Shuka-sho and Kikka-sho from the stands.

Not that it matters to me or Cow or Mr. N-jima since we've been gathering at the off-track betting WINS usually, but it sure will be a big step. After all, cheering for the horse you support is one of the most enjoying part of horse racing. Assuming from the limited number of spectators allowed, surely they will be allowed to cheer? Tokyo Race Course is selling only 1047 seats whereas it has a capacity of over 100 thousand. Think they will be able to ensure enough social distance.

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Caterpillar